$UPHQLDDQG$]HUEDLMDQDUHFODVKLQJ

RYHUDGLVSXWHGUHJLRQ+HUH
VZKDW
\RXQHHGWRNQRZ

Analysis by Nick Paton Walsh, International Security Editor, CNN

Updated 1536 GMT (2336 HKT) September 28, 2020

A photo from the Armenian defense ministry appears to show an Azerbaijani tank being
destroyed on Sunday.
(CNN)The dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh has run hot and cold since the 1994
ceasefire -- one of several "frozen conflicts" that blight the post-Soviet world. Yet this
weekend's clashes mark a new height in rhetoric and signs of intent.

It has many concerned that a tit-for-tat cycle of border clashes, usually diffused by
international diplomacy, may continue unabated and spark a longer, nastier war.

What is the dispute about?

Control over the mountainous area of Nagorno-Karabakh. Populated and controlled by
ethnic Armenians, and aided by the Armenian diaspora, it sits inside Azerbaijani territory,
connected to Armenia proper by a costly highway. It is heavily militarized and its forces
have been backed by Armenia, which has a security alliance with Russia. Azerbaijan
has long claimed it will retake the territory, which is internationally recognized as
Azerbaijani. Control over the area has become a point of nationalist -- almost existential
-- pride in both countries.

Why is this flareup happening now?

It's unclear what started this latest escalation. Azerbaijan says Armenia provoked
them with aggression. Armenia says Azerbaijani forces attacked. Tensions have risen
since July, when several days of clashes rocked the border between Armenia and
Azerbaijan. These clashes killed 11 Azerbaijani soldiers and one civilian, Azerbaijan
said, and prompted tens of thousands of protesters to take to the streets of Baku,
demanding the region's recapture. Turkey, seeking an enhanced regional role and an
ally of the ethnically Turkic Azerbaijanis, has been offering support -- perhaps military --
and loudly backed Azerbaijan's claims.

Is it likely to escalate to full-scale war?

The normal rhythm of this conflict would anticipate diplomacy to rush in and calm the
guns after 48 hours of blood-letting. But that hasn't happened yet, and the opposite is
fast becoming true. Armenia declared martial law Sunday and mobilized all its forces.
Azerbaijan followed with martial law Sunday, and partial mobilization Monday.
Baku has long said it would retake the area and has oil riches to spend on forces to
achieve those same ends. The conflict is so overlooked and little-known in the outside
world, that some speculate the fighting may spiral out of control, with Washington too
distracted and inward-looking to muster its full diplomatic might to stop it. The US has
had a deputy secretary of state call both sides to "urge both sides to cease hostilities
immediately," and President Donald Trump has said "we'll see if we can stop it."

Why are Russia and Turkey addressing it?

Again, Turkey and Russia find themselves on opposing sides of a febrile front line. Like
in Syria and Libya, their proxies -- mercenaries or allied armies -- are battling for control
of parts of a Middle East, or Caucasus, where a lighter US footprint has imbalanced the
delicate distribution of power. Turkey has been particularly effusive in its encouragement
of Azerbaijan, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saying on Twitter that Armenia has
"once again proven that it is the biggest threat to peace and serenity in the region. The
Turkish nation continues to stand by its Azerbaijani brothers and sisters with all its
means, as it has always done."
The Kremlin has been a calmer force, with President Vladimir Putin calling Armenian
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and noting "it is important now to take all necessary
efforts to prevent a military escalation of the confrontation, and most importantly -- to
stop military operations." But Moscow is a long-term supporter of Armenia, in weapons
and diplomacy, and will be unlikely to tolerate Turkey imposing its will in its former Soviet
area of influence. Putin also has a good relationship with Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev.
But enmity is building, given the ongoing violence in Syria, where Turkish-backed Syrian
fighters are pushing against Moscow's ally, the Syrian regime. Similar tensions are
growing in Libya, where Turkey is backing the Tripoli-based government with Syrian
 mercenaries, and Russia has sent Wagner mercenaries, according to US officials, to
assist rival forces that control the East. Both Moscow and Ankara seem to spy an
opening in Washington's disinterest in being the regional superpower, and Nagorny-
Karabakh is the latest, longest-contested, least-expected venue for this clash to play out.

What is the rest of the world saying?

Everyone wants calm, but nobody on the front Iines is listening yet. NATO has said both
"sides should immediately cease hostilities," and added "there is no military solution to
this conflict." The EU demanded an "immediate cessation of hostilities, de-escalation
and for strict observance of the ceasefire" that had been coordinated by the OSCE's
Minsk Group.
Yet four years of Trump's disengagement, the pandemic, Russia's increased confidence
and Turkey's bold regional posturing have created a new dynamic where the old norms
can be discarded and destructive opportunities sought. Even if diplomacy suddenly
shuts the fighting down in the coming hours, the renewed vigor of rhetoric on both sides
means this could flare up again soon.

x
x 5HWLUHG6RFFHU6WDU-RKQ7HUU\&XWV+DOID0LOOLRQIURP+LV« Mansion Global
x Soccer Star Ryan Giggs Selling Custom Manchester Mansion Mansion Global
x India: New WiFi Booster Stops Expensive Internet Next Tech

More from CNN

x Elon Musk doubles down on Covid-VNHSWLFLVPDQGVD\VKHZRQ

W«
x Vice distances itself ² again ² from co-IRXQGHUZKRVWDUWHG«
x
+HZDVO\LQJWKURXJKKLVWHHWK
$%&WRZQKDOOSDUWLFLSDQWV«
x French man says tattoo-FRYHUHGIDFHFRVWKLPNLQGHUJDUWHQ«

Recommended by

x News & buzz

Analysis: Senate Republicans got some VERY bad news Monday

 Belgium's new princess 'not expecting anything' from royal family

x Paid Content
o

Charlize Theron Selling Los Angeles BungalowMansion Global

o
I Want To Live For My Daughter. Please Save Me From CancerKetto
o
This New German Hearing Aid Is Crushing The Marketin.cdn.hear.com

x by

x More from CNN

&KLQHVHDLUIRUFHSURSDJDQGDYLGHRDSSHDUVWRXVH«
 Analysis: Kayleigh McEnany just made things worse

&ODVKHVEUHDNRXWEHWZHHQ$UPHQLDDQG$]HUEDLMDQ«

*UHHNSUHVLGHQWYLVLWVWLQ\LVODQGDWFHQWHURI«

Search
x World
o Africa
o Americas
o Asia
o Australia
o China
o Europe
o India
o Middle East
o United Kingdom
x US Politics
o 2020 Election
o Facts First
o Election 101
x Business
o Markets
o Tech
o Media
o Success
o Perspectives
o Videos
x Health
o Food
o Fitness
o Wellness
o Parenting
o Vital Signs
x Entertainment
o Stars
o Screen
o Binge
o Culture
o Media
x Tech
o Innovate
o Gadget
o Foreseeable Future
o Mission: Ahead
o Upstarts
o Work Transformed
o Innovative Cities
x Style
o Arts
o Design
o Fashion
o Architecture
o Luxury
o Beauty
o Video

x Travel
o Destinations
o Food and Drink
o Stay
o News
o Videos

x Sports
o Football
o Tennis
o Equestrian
o Golf
o Skiing
o Horse Racing
o Motorsport
o Formula E
o Esports

x Videos
o Live TV
o Digital Studios
o CNN Films
o HLN
o TV Schedule
o TV Shows A-Z
o CNNVR

x Features
o Call to Earth
o Freedom Project
o Impact Your World
o Inside Africa
o 2 Degrees
o CNN Heroes
o All Features

x More
o Photos
o Longform
o Investigations
o CNN Profiles
o CNN Leadership
o CNN Newsletters
o Work for CNN

x Weather
o Climate
o Storm Tracker
o Wildfire Tracker
o Video
FOLLOW CNN
x
x
x
 x Terms of Use
x Privacy Policy
x Accessibility & CC
x AdChoices
x About Us
x Modern Slavery Act Statement
x Advertise with us
x CNN Store
x Newsletters
x Transcripts
x License Footage
x CNN Newsource
x Sitemap

© 2020 &DEOH1HZV1HWZRUN$:DUQHU0HGLD&RPSDQ\$OO5LJKWV5HVHUYHG&116DQVŒ ‹&DEOH

News Network.