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Often, it would be good to know what the present value of the future investment
is, or how long it will take to mature (give returns). It could be much more
profitable putting the planned investment money in the bank and earning interest,
or investing in an alternative project.
Typical investment decisions include the decision to build another grain silo,
cotton gin or cold store or invest in a new distribution depot. At a lower level,
marketers may wish to evaluate whether to spend more on advertising or
increase the sales force, although it is difficult to measure the sales to advertising
ratio. Many formal methods are used in capital budgeting, including the
techniques such as
“The period of time required for the cash flows from an investment project to
equal the initial cash outflows”.
'The time it takes the cash inflows from a capital investment project to equal the
cash outflows,
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Payback is often used as a "first screening method". By this, we mean that when
a capital investment project is being considered, the first question to ask is: 'How
long will it take to pay back its cost?' The company might have a target payback,
and so it would reject a capital project unless its payback period were less than a
certain number of years.
Example 1:
Years 0 1 2 3 4 5
Project A 1,000,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000
= 4 years
Example 2:
Years 0 1 2 3 4
Project B - 10,000 5,000 2,500 4,000 1,000
Payback period lies between year 2 and year 3. Sum of money recovered by the
end of the second year
= $10,000 - $7,500
= $2,500
= 2.625 years
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It ignores the timing of cash flows within the payback period, the cash flows
after the end of payback period and therefore the total project return.
It ignores the time value of money. This means that it does not take into
account the fact that $1 today is worth more than $1 in one year's time. An
investor who has $1 today can either consume it immediately or alternatively can
invest it at the prevailing interest rate, say 30%, to get a return of $1.30 in a
year's time.
Payback can be important: long payback means capital tied up and high
investment risk. The method also has the advantage that it involves a quick,
simple calculation and an easily understood concept.
Each potential project's value should be estimated using a discounted cash flow
(DCF) valuation, to find its net present value (NPV). (First applied to Corporate
Finance by Joel Dean in 1951; see also Fisher separation theorem, John Burr
Williams: Theory.) This valuation requires estimating the size and timing of all the
incremental cash flows from the project. These future cash flows are then
discounted [disambiguation needed] to determine their present value. These present values
are then summed, to get the NPV. See also Time value of money. The NPV
decision rule is to accept all positive NPV projects in an unconstrained
environment, or if projects are mutually exclusive, accept the one with the highest
NPV(GE).
The NPV is greatly affected by the discount rate, so selecting the proper rate -
sometimes called the hurdle rate - is critical to making the right decision. The
hurdle rate is the minimum acceptable return on an investment. It should reflect
the riskiness of the investment, typically measured by the volatility of cash flows,
and must take into account the financing mix. Managers may use models such
as the CAPM or the APT to estimate a discount rate appropriate for each
particular project, and use the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to reflect
the financing mix selected. A common practice in choosing a discount rate for a
project is to apply a WACC that applies to the entire firm, but a higher discount
rate may be more appropriate when a project's risk is higher than the risk of the
firm as a whole.
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Net present value (NPV)
where:
Examples:
N.B. At this point the tutor should introduce the net present value tables from any
recognised published source. Do that now.
Decision rule:
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If NPV is positive (+): accept the project
If NPV is negative(-): reject the project
A firm intends to invest $1,000 in a project that generated net receipts of $800,
$900 and $600 in the first, second and third years respectively. Should the firm
go ahead with the project?
Attempt the calculation without reference to net present value tables first.
The internal rate of return (IRR) is defined as the discount rate that gives a net
present value (NPV) of zero. It is a commonly used measure of investment
efficiency.
The IRR method will result in the same decision as the NPV method for (non-
mutually exclusive) projects in an unconstrained environment, in the usual cases
where a negative cash flow occurs at the start of the project, followed by all
positive cash flows. In most realistic cases, all independent projects that have an
IRR higher than the hurdle rate should be accepted. Nevertheless, for mutually
exclusive projects, the decision rule of taking the project with the highest IRR -
which is often used - may select a project with a lower NPV.
In some cases, several zero NPV discount rates may exist, so there is no unique
IRR. The IRR exists and is unique if one or more years of net investment
(negative cash flow) are followed by years of net revenues. But if the signs of the
cash flows change more than once, there may be several IRRs. The IRR
equation generally cannot be solved analytically but only via iterations.
Despite a strong academic preference for NPV, surveys indicate that executives prefer
IRR over NPV[citation needed], although they should be used in concert. In a budget-
constrained environment, efficiency measures should be used to maximize the overall
NPV of the firm. Some managers find it intuitively more appealing to evaluate
investments in terms of percentage rates of return than dollars of NPV..
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The IRR is the discount rate at which the NPV for a project equals zero. This
rate means that the present value of the cash inflows for the project would equal
the present value of its outflows.
where r = IRR
IRR of an annuity:
where:
Example:
What is the IRR of an equal annual income of $20 per annum which accrues for
7 years and costs $120?
=6
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NPV and IRR methods are closely related because:
Independent project: Selecting one project does not preclude the choosing of the
other.
With conventional cash flows (-|+|+) no conflict in decision arises; in this case
both NPV and IRR lead to the same accept/reject decisions.
If cash flows are discounted at k1, NPV is positive and IRR > k1: accept project.
If cash flows are discounted at k2, NPV is negative and IRR < k2: reject the
project.
Mathematical proof: for a project to be acceptable, the NPV must be positive, i.e.
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where R is the IRR.
Example:
= $954.55
= $1,363.64
IRRA:
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= 1.21-1
IRRB:
= 1.2-1
Decision:
IRRA (21%) > IRRB (20%): Agritex should choose Project A. See figure 6.2.
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Up to a discount rate of ko: project B is superior to project A, therefore project B is
preferred to project A.
Beyond the point ko: project A is superior to project B, therefore project A is preferred to
project B
NPV and IRR may give conflicting decisions where projects differ in their scale of
investment. Example:
Years 0 1 2 3
Project A -2,500 1,500 1,500 1,500
Project B -14,000 7,000 7,000 7,000
Assume k= 10%.
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IRRA =
= 1.67.
IRRB =
= 2.0
Decision:
Conflicting, as:
NPV prefers B to A
IRR prefers A to B
NPV IRR
Project A $ 3,730.50 36%
Project B $17,400.00 21%
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To show why:
i) the NPV prefers B, the larger project, for a discount rate below 20%
a) Use the incremental cash flow approach, "B minus A" approach
b) Choosing project B is tantamount to choosing a hypothetical project "B minus A".
0 1 2 3
Project B - 14,000 7,000 7,000 7,000
Project A - 2,500 1,500 1,500 1,500
"B minus A" - 11,500 5,500 5,500 5,500
= 2.09
= 20%
d) Choosing the bigger project B means choosing the smaller project A plus an
additional outlay of $11,500 of which $5,500 will be realised each year for the
next 3 years.
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f) Given k of 10%, this is a profitable opportunity, therefore must be accepted.
g) But, if k were greater than the IRR (20%) on the incremental CF, then reject
project.
Advantage of NPV:
Disadvantage of IRR:
The IRR may give conflicting decisions where the timing of cash flows varies
between the 2 projects.
0 1 2
Project A - 100 20 125.00
Project B - 100 100 31.25
"A minus B" 0 - 80 88.15
Assume k = 10%
NPV IRR
Project A 17.3 20.0%
Project B 16.7 25.0%
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"A minus B" 0.6 10.9%
IRR prefers B to A even though both projects have identical initial outlays. So,
the decision is to accept A, that is B + (A - B) = A. See figure 6.4.
NPV and IRR rankings are contradictory. Project A earns $120 at the end of the first year
while project B earns $174 at the end of the fourth year.
0 1 23 4
Project A -100 120 - - -
Project B -100 - - - 174
Assume k = 10%
NPV IRR
Project A 9 20%
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Project B 19 15%
Decision:
NPV prefers B to A
IRR prefers A to B.
Decision rule:
If NPV = 0, we have:
NPV = PV - Io = 0
PV = Io
PV of CF Io PI
Project A 100 50 2.0
Project B 1,500 1,000 1.5
Decision:
Disadvantage of PI:
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The ARR method (also called the return on capital employed (ROCE) or the
return on investment (ROI) method) of appraising a capital project is to estimate
the accounting rate of return that the project should yield. If it exceeds a target
rate of return, the project will be undertaken.
Example:
= 15%
= 30%
Disadvantages:
It does not take account of the timing of the profits from an investment.
It is based on accounting profits and not cash flows. Accounting profits are
subject to a number of different accounting treatments.
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It takes no account of the length of the project.
Despite the limitations of the payback method, it is the method most widely used
in practice. There are a number of reasons for this:
The method is often used in conjunction with NPV or IRR method and acts as
a first screening device to identify projects which are worthy of further
investigation.
Profit/(loss)
Proposal A Proposal B
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$ $
Initial investment 46,000 46,000
Year 1 6,500 4,500
Year 2 3,500 2,500
Year 3 13,500 4,500
Year 4 Loss 1,500 Profit 14,500
Estimated scrap value at the end of Year 4 4,000 4,000
“The ratio of present value of a project’s future net cash flows to the project’s
initial cash outflow”
The profitability index, or PI, method compares the present value of future cash
inflows with the initial investment on a relative basis. Therefore, the PI is the
ratio of the present value of cash flows (PVCF) to the initial investment of the
project.
PVCF
PI =
Initial investment
Project L
PV1 9.09
0 10% 1 2 3
PV2 49.59
PV3 60.11
-100.00
118.79 10 60 80 18
PV of cash flows
PI =
initial coast
118 .79
= =1.10
100
Accept project if PI > 1.
Reject if PI < 1.0
Profitability Index
The profitability index is a technique of capital budgeting. This holds the
relationship between the investment and a proposed project's payoff.
Mathematically the profitability index is given by the following formula:
Profitability Index = (Present Value of future cash flows) / (Present Value of Initial
investment)
The profitability index is also sometimes called as value investment ratio or profit
investment ratio. Profitability index is used to rank various projects.
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(2) Calculate the future value of all cash inflows at the last year of the
project’s life.
(3) Determine the discount rate that causes the future value of all cash
inflows determined in step 2, to be equal to the firm’s investment at time
zero. This discount rate is know as the MIRR.
Project L:
0 1 2 3
-100.00 10 60 80.00
66.00
12.10
100.00 $158.10 = TV of
$ 0.00 = NPV inflows
PV outflows = $100
TV inflows = $158.10.
TV
PVcosts =
(1 + MIRR ) n
10%
MIRR = 16.5%
MIRRS = 16.9%.
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