Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
AS AN ASSET CLASS
Emanuel Derman
Columbia University
emanuel@ederman.com
www.ederman.com
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June 10, 2003
Summary
Volatility is a useful trading hedge against all kinds of disasters. How
can you trade it?
Calls and puts don’t quite do it. Though calls and puts are sensitive to
volatility, they are not sensitive only to volatility.
How can you do better?
WHY TRADE
VOLATILITY?
WHY TRADE VOLATILITY?
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Realized Volatility
The realized daily volatility σd of an equity index Si over a period of N
days is the square root of the variance of the daily returns ri:
∆S i 2 2 1 2
∑ ∑
1
r i ≈ -------- σd = ---- ( r i ) – ---- r i
Si N N
i i
σ annual ∼ 16 × σ daily
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Implied Volatility
Black-Scholes: the fair price of a stock option depends on its future
realized volatility.
C BS = C ( S, K, t, T, r, σ )
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Bonds and Options /Yields and Volatilities
Bonds Options
Interest rates are the parameters Volatilities are the parameters
people use to quote bond people use to quote options
prices. prices
Realized daily interest rates: Realized daily volatility:
I actual short-term interest rates the actual volatility of an index
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Why Trade Volatility?
Attractive characteristics:
• It grows when uncertainty increases.
• It reverts to the mean.
• It goes up and tends to stay up when most assets go down.
Types of volatility trading:
I • Speculative trading of volatility levels in various markets.
Index vs. stock, foreign vs. domestic, short-term vs. long-
WHY TRADE term, currencies, rates,...
VOLATILITY? You need views about future uncertainty to trade it.
• Trading the spread between realized and implied volatility levels.
• Hedging implicit volatility exposure.
Hedge funds and risk arbitrageurs are often implicitly short
volatility. They often take short positions in the spread
between stocks of companies planning to merge, assuming
that the spread will narrow if the merger takes place. If
overall market volatility increases, these mergers are less
likely to occur, and the spread may widen.
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II
II VOLATILITY TRADING
VOLATILITY
TRADING WITH
WITH OPTIONS
OPTIONS
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A Linear Security: A stock or index
ASSUMED STOCK EVOLUTION: P&L OF A STOCK POSITION:
P&L = ∆S
S
S0 ∆S ∆S
II ∆t
VOLATILITY
TRADING WITH
OPTIONS
• If you own a stock or index, you make money if it goes up, lose if it
goes down.
• You have a linear position in ∆S over the next instant ∆t.
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A Curved Security
To make money irrespective of direction, you want a security which
gives you a curved P&L: a quadratic position in (∆S)2:
P&L = (1/2)Γ(∆S)2
curvature Γ
II
VOLATILITY ∆S
TRADING WITH
OPTIONS To get curvature: delta-hedge away the linear part of a call option.
C
- =
S curved
long call short stock = hedge
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June 10, 2003
P&L of Delta-Hedged Options
gain ~ 1/2Γσ 2S2∆t
index
shift ∆S
loss ~ (1/2)Σ2S2∆t
II
The loss in an instant ∆t
VOLATILITY if expected vol is Σ
TRADING WITH
OPTIONS
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P&L Depends on Realized Vol vs. Implied Vol
VOLATILITY
TRADING WITH
OPTIONS
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III
III
OPTIONS
TRADING: WHAT
OPTIONS TRADING:
CAN GO WRONG WHAT CAN GO WRONG
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1. It’s Not A Clean Bet on Volatility Alone
2
Γ S is irritating. The Γ (Gamma) (Curvature) of an option as stock
price S varies sharply:
III
OPTIONS
TRADING: WHAT
CAN GO WRONG 100 call
If the stock price moves away, you get very little bang for your option
buck.
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2. Delta-Hedging In Practice Is Risky
Delta-hedging assumes smooth stock movements, continuous
hedging, no transactions costs, a known future volatility.
Real markets violate Black-Scholes assumptions because of:
• Jumps.
• Transaction costs.
• Stochastic volatility: the future realized volatility which determines
III your hedge ratio is not known.
OPTIONS • You cannot really hedge continuously; you must hedge discretely.
TRADING: WHAT
CAN GO WRONG
All of these imperfections may overwhelm any theoretical gain.
Let’s look at just one example -- discrete hedging.
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June 10, 2003
Example: Error When Hedging is Discrete
Perfect Black-Scholes world; hedge N times for 1-month ATM put
with 20% realized vol. The Black-Scholes value is 2.512 dollars.
Monte Carlo simulation of the P&L:
28 28
Your P&L isn’t guaranteed unless you hedge continuously. But that
introduces large transactions costs and shifts the expected return.
It’s not easy to make money this way.
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IV
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Implied Volatility Σ Violates Black-Scholes
• Implied volatility is the single value of the volatility you have to
insert into the Black-Scholes model to match the market price of an
option.
• It is the future volatility the index must have to make the Black-
Scholes price fair.
• If the Black-Scholes model is correct, all options would have the
IV same implied volatility.
• That isn’t the case.
THE VOLATILITY
SMILE VIOLATES
BLACK-SCHOLES Black-Scholes is wrong in principle, not just in practice, and therefore
hedging is even more difficult.
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June 10, 2003
Pre- and Post-Crash Implied Volatilities:
Since the ‘87 crash there has been a persistent skewed structure in
Black-Scholes implied volatilities in most world equity option
markets.
Representative implied volatility skews of S&P 500 options. (a) Pre-crash.
(b) Post-crash. Data taken from M. Rubinstein, “Implied Binomial Trees” J. of
Finance, 69 (1994) pp 771-818.
20
IV
18
V olatility
THE VOLATILITY
SMILE VIOLATES 16
BLACK-SCHOLES
14
0.95 0.975 1 1.025 1.05
Strike/Index
(b)
20
18
V olatility
16
14
0.95 0.975 1 1.025 1.05
Strike/Index
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A Persistent Negative Global Skew/Smile
A persistent large skew, almost linear, and inconsistent with Black-
Scholes.
50 Nikkei 225
IV
45 S&P 500
THE VOLATILITY g
Hang Sendg
40
SMILE VIOLATES 35
FTSE 100
BLACK-SCHOLES DAX
30
CAC 40
25 MIB 30
20 SMI
25D Put Atm 25D Call AEX
Σ ( K ) = Σ atm – b ( K – S 0 )
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The Implied Volatility Surface of Indexes
The implied volatility surface for S&P 500 index options as a function of
strike level and term to expiration on September 27, 1995.
IV
THE VOLATILITY
SMILE VIOLATES
BLACK-SCHOLES
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More recent S&P 500 smiles
SPX Imp Vol (12/26/01)
70%
60%
50% slope ~ 1 vol pt. per 1% change in strike 1 Mon
Imp Vol
40% 3 Mon
30% 6 Mon
20% 12 Mon
10%
0%
IV 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5
Strike/Spot
THE VOLATILITY
SMILE VIOLATES Single stock smile
BLACK-SCHOLES
VOD Imp Vol (12/27/01)
70%
60% 1 Mon
Imp Vol
3 Mon
50%
6 Mon
40% 12 Mon
30%
0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5
Strike/Spot
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Some currency smiles....
IV
THE VOLATILITY
SMILE VIOLATES
BLACK-SCHOLESATM Strike = 0.90 9.85 123.67
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Negative Correlation Between Implied Vols and
Index Levels
65 1200
60 1150
55 1100
IV 50 1050
1000
45
950
40
THE VOLATILITY 900
35 INDEX
SMILE VIOLATES 30
850
800
BLACK-SCHOLES 25 750
ATM
20 700
15 650
09-01-97
10-01-97
11-03-97
12-01-97
01-02-98
02-02-98
03-02-98
04-01-98
05-01-98
06-01-98
07-01-98
08-03-98
09-01-98
10-01-98
11-02-98
But be careful - ATM vol isn’t something you own. You own a specific
strike vol.
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Patterns of Change in the Volatility Surface
Volatility surfaces fluctuate in modes:
∆Σ = β 1 ( volatility level mode ) + β 2 ( term structure mode ) + β 3 ( skew mode ) :
+ other modes
One finds about 85% of moves are parallel, 10% changes in slope with
respect to time, and 5% related to out-of-the-money short term puts.
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V
WHAT CAUSES
THE SMILE?
WHAT CAUSES THE SMILE?
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June 10, 2003
Causes of The Smile
Behavioral causes:
• Supply and demand - purchases of collars
• Expectation of changes in volatility
• Fear of crashes (down for equities, up for gold
After a crash, realized and implied volatilities will be higher
correlation of individual stocks in a jump down increases
V • Level- and time-dependent effects
resistance levels in stocks
WHAT CAUSES support levels in currencies
THE SMILE? change of volatility behavior at low interest rates
Also:
• Fat tails in distributions
• Leverage effects
• Transactions costs?
• Uncertain future volatility
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Models for the Smile
Classic Black-Scholes:
constant volatility
V
Local volatility models:
WHAT CAUSES correlated volatility
THE SMILE?
S
diffuse
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Which model you use depends on what market
you deal with.
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VI
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June 10, 2003
Pre- and Post-Crash SPX Return Distributions
Three-month, S&P 500 index, observed return distributions.
(a) pre-1987 crash (1/70 to 1/87); (b) post-1987 crash (6/87 to 6/99)
6
5
3
Probability (%)
Probability (%)
4
2
3
VI
2
IS THE SMILE 1
1
FAIR?
0
0
-20 0 20 -20 0 20
Index Return (%) Index Return (%)
24
post-crash
pre-crash
20
Volatility (%)
16 18 14
12
10
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VII
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Analogy: Credit Default Swap Market
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Volatility Contracts : Volatility and Variance Swaps
A Volatility Swap is a forward contract on realized volatility:
Payoff: ( σ
R – K vol ) × N
where N is the notional amount.
2
An option whose ΓS = 1 would exactly earn the realized volatility
VII 2
over the life of the contract, with a delivery price equal to Σ .
TRADING & • What kind of option has a
Γ 1/S2
PRICING 2
VOLATILITY Γ∼1⁄S ? call
USING
VOLATILITY
SWAPS
S
• An option whose payoff is the call
payoff
natural logarithm of S: – ln(S) ln(S)
S
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Dealers Can Create a Log Contract Out of
A Basket of Options with Many Different Strikes
A portfolio of vanilla options with weights inversely proportional to
their strike squared can replicate the payoff of a Log Contract. It will
be equally sensitive to volatility at all spot level S.
strikes: 80,100,120
equally
1/K2
weighted
will give the same 20 60 100 140 180 20 60 100 140 180
VOLATILITY
USING 20 60 100 140 180 20 60 100 140 180
strikes 20 to 180
spaced 1 apart
(g) (h)
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Pricing of Variance Swaps
• Dealers replicate the log contract by buying and hedging a portfolio
of puts and calls (and a forward contract).
• The fair price of the variance swap is given by the market price of
the basket of puts and calls, a price which depends on the smile.
You can create your own variance swaps like this to do vol arbitrage.
Difficulties to be aware of
VII
• You need a continuum of puts and calls of all strikes to replicate it
TRADING & exactly.
PRICING • In practice you cannot buy very out-of-the-money strikes. So, if the
VOLATILITY stock price moves too far, your replication will fail.
USING • If the stock jumps rather than moves smoothly, there are additional
VOLATILITY replication failures
SWAPS
Volatility swaps are more complex.
Volatility is the square root of variance, and is a more complex
derivative of variance. Its value depends not just on volatility, but on
the volatility of volatility, and you have to dynamically hedge it by
trading variance swaps as the underlier. This is possible too, but needs
a model for the volatility of volatility
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June 10, 2003