MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCSs) OVER ELEVATED TERRAINS IN

WEST AFRICA

Cyprian U. Okoloye1, Wassila Thiaw2, Vadlamani Kumar2

1 Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Central Forecast Office, Oshodi, Lagos

Nigeria
2 African Desk, Climate Prediction Center, Washington DC. USA

ABSTRACT

This work uses a case study approach to describe synoptic circumstances associated
with the occurrence of Mesoscale convective systems over West Africa during the height
of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane season. The analysis which is limited to the months of
August through September 2005 is carried out using NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project
Dataset. The results show that the African Easterly Waves (AEWs) are preceded by a
large convective event composed of several mesoscale convective systems over
elevated terrains. The convection provides a forcing on the baroclinically and
barotropically unstable state that exist over tropical West Africa. It is observed that near
the West African Coast, the baroclinic structure weakens, while convection is
maintained. Sometimes, organized convective systems are produced during the
afternoon convection near the high elevation areas such as Air Mountains, Guinea
highlands, Jos Plateau in north central Nigeria, in the vicinity of Lake Chad and Darfur in
Western Sudan. The method used in this study to identify and track the waves is that of
(Hodges 1995). In the tracking method, a significant vorticity centre at 850 hPa
propagates along the baroclinic zone. Therefore, there is a deliberate focus on the
positive relative vorticity centres that exist north and south of the Easterly Jet over West
Africa and their relevance as potential precursors for Tropical Cyclones. Cloud clusters
on satellite imagery relates well to synoptic features on observational analysis.
Preliminary result suggests that Atlantic Tropical Cyclones activity may be influenced by
the number of AEWs leaving the West African coast, and may have significant low-level
amplitudes, and not simply by the total number of AEWs.
1.0 Introduction
Over West Africa, almost all the
precipitable water is of convective
nature. It is therefore known that the
economically useful rainfall comes from
vigorous organized convective systems
such as Squall Lines (SLs), Mesoscale
Convective Complexes (MCCs) and
Quasi-Stationary Convection (QSCs).
These systems are produced during the
afternoon convection near the high
elevation areas such as Air mountains,
Guinea highlands, Jos plateau in
northcentral Nigeria, in the vicinity of
lake Chad and Darfur in western Sudan.
During their migration westward, they
develop during the evening before
reaching their full mesoscale organized
cloud clusters (SL, MCC, QSC) and
strengthen during the night time (Ross,
1985). Release of instability can be
triggered by surface heating, orography,
moisture sources, African Wave
Disturbances (AWD) or other
circulations that encourage large-scale
convergence. AEWs are an important
part of the West African and tropical
climate. They are known both to
modulate the daily rainfall over west
Africa (e.g., Reed et al. 1977) and to
initiate most Atlantic tropical cyclones
(e.g., Landsea et al. 1998 and
Thorncroft et al., 2001). Both
observations and models have shown
that characteristics of the AEJ
(particularly horizontal and vertical
shear) influence wave development
characteristics (Burpee 1972, Thorncroft
1995). However, the relationship
between these waves and convective
activity is complex.
Previous analyses of waves using
operational analyses has mainly used
statistical techniques to diagnose the
AEW activity (e.g., Reed et al. 1988a)
Ceron and Gueremy 1999). These
papers diagnosed different aspects of
the AEW activity, including the different
regions of AEW activity north and south
of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ). In
contrast, a different perspective of the
nature of AEW activity was obtained by
(Reed et al. 1988b), who manually
tracked AEWs between August and
September in 1985. His result showed
the tracks of individual systems moving
over Africa, into the Atlantic Ocean, and
in some cases, recurving as tropical
cyclones. This paper considers a
tracking method, following the vorticity
centers within the AEWs. This tracking
technique offers a different but
complimentary view to results using
statistical techniques. Therefore, there
is a focus on the positive relative
vorticity centers that exist north and
south of the easterly Jet over Africa and
their relevance as potential precursors
for tropical cyclones. The tracking
scheme adopted here, tracks only
systems with closed vorticity contours
greater than or equal to 0.5 X 10-5s-1.
This may mean that weak AEWs earlier
in their life cycle are not tracked using
this scheme and may contribute to the
weaker analyzed activity over land.
The present study therefore,
investigates the synoptic circumstances
associated with the occurrence of AEWs
over West Africa during the height of the
2005 Atlantic Hurricane season, using
gridded NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis
dataset and preliminary information on
2005 Atlantic Hurricane report from the
NOAA’s Tropical Prediction Center.
Therefore, a case-study approach is
used to describe the evolution of an
intense AEW from its initiation in Darfur,
western Sudan (near (12oN, 30oE) on 15
August until it crosses the West African
coast on 24 August 2005 (see Fig. 1).
This system was the strongest AEW in
the summer of 2005. The analysis
takes a much closer look at the synoptic
evolution during this period, focusing
more on the interactions of the synoptic-
scale AEW and the mesoscale
convective systems (MCSs), and
highlighting the relationship between the
AEWs and the Tropical Cyclones.
2.0 Data and Methodology
This work is part of a broader study
which examines the African Easterly
Wave (AEW) structures in relation to
wind fields during part of the 2005
Atlantic Hurricane Season. In this
study, the results are limited to the use
of NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (RA2) and
in particular, for the period August –
September 2005. The NCEP
Reanalysis dataset consists of daily and
monthly gridded data (u, v, Z etc) on
2.5o X 2.5o horizontal resolution with
usually at least 17 vertical levels. This
dataset is currently available from 1979
to 2005, but at the time analysis are
carried out, only 2005 dataset are used.
The dataset is derived as a combination
of observations and model results based
on the NCEP global operational model.
The observational data consists
primarily of global rawinsonde data, the
Consolidated Ocean Atmosphere
Dataset (COADS) surface marine data,
aircraft data, surface land synoptic data,
SSM/I surface wind speeds, satellite
cloud drift winds, and satellite sounder
data. Details on the data and its quality
control, the model data assimilation
techniques, and preliminary validation
are given in Kalnay et al, (1996).
Satellite Infra-red imagery from
Meteosat, on half hourly basis, analyzed
three hourly is also used.
2.1 The scale interaction is analyzed
through:
(i) Hovmoller space-time diagram that
tends to emphasize the synoptic-scale
(Rossby wave type) signal of AEWs.
(ii) Analysis of the 700 hPa U-
component (averaged), used to identify
and describe the characteristics of the
large scale features such as the middle
level African Easterly Jet (AEJ).
(iii) Analysis of 850 hPa potential
vorticity tracking of the nature of AEWs.
The method used to identify and track
the waves is that of Hodges (1995).
This method identifies the waves as
maxima in the threshold relative vorticity
field (a threshold of +0.5 X 10-5s-1 is
used) and tracks them using a method
that minimizes a cost function for the
motion coherence subject to constraints
on the motion. It should be noted that
systems that have closed vorticity
contours with values of at least +0.5 X
10-5s-1 are being detected with this
approach.
The first step is to examine the
Longitude-Time Section of meridional
wind averaged over the sector 5oN and
15oN at 700 hPa, using the NCEP’s –
RA2. Next is the Zonal wind fields,
averaged over the sector 18oW and
15oE. Characteristics of interest include
the general structure, intensity and
location of the middle level jet stream
and its seasonal development and
associated horizontal and vertical wind
shear.
Also, part of the cyclone statistics from
the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane report of the
NOAA’s Tropical Prediction Center
(TPC) is downloaded from
NCEP/NOAA’s website, and evaluated
in an attempt to confirm some of the
major changes in the wind field as
suggested by the datasets (see Tables
1 and 2). Infra-red Meteosat Data is
used to infer convection in deep
convective systems that support
development of AEWs. An analysis of
850 hPa potential vorticity fields in
NCEP Reanalysis data completes the
characterization of the basic state for
the AEWs. The basic-state variables
are computed for the period 16 August –
16 September 2005, forming a 1-month
period centered on the passage of this
AEW.
Table 1.

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND DEATHS U.S. DAMAGE

MPH $MILLION
----------------------------------------------------------……………………………….
TS HARVEY 2-8 AUG 65 0
H IRENE 4-18 AUG 105 0
TD TEN 13-14 AUG 35 0
TS JOSE 22-23 AUG 50 1 **
H KATRINA 23-31 AUG 175 ** **
TS LEE 28 AUG - 40 0
----------------------------------------------------------………………………………
NOTE...DATES BASED ON COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (UTC)
* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
** UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/AVILA/BEVEN/KNABB/PASCH/STEWART
Source: http//www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/tws/miatwsat_sep.shtml?

Table 2.

SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND DEATHS U.S. DAMAGE

MPH $MILLION
----------------------------------------------------------……………………………….
H MARIA 1-10 SEP 115 0
H NATE 5-10 SEP 90 0
H OPHELIA 6-18 SEP 85 1 50
H PHILIPPE 17-24 SEP 80 0
H RITA 18-26 SEP 175 ** **
TD NINETEEN 30 SEP - 35 ** **
----------------------------------------------------------………………………………
NOTE...DATES BASED ON 3.0 Results and Discussions
COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME
(UTC) 3.1 Time-longitude cross sections
* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
** UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME Figure 1 shows a hovmoller space-time
diagrams of unfiltered meridional winds
FORECASTER (v) averaged between 5oN and 15oN at
PASCH/STEWART/BEVEN/FRANKLIN/ 700 hPa over West African region for
KNABB/AVILA August and September 2005. From
Source: figure 1, it can be seen that the waves
http//www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005 propagate westward across the African
/tws/miatwsat_sep.shtml? continent. The waves mostly begin
between 15o and 25oE and occasionally
at 30oE, and continue into the Atlantic.
The systems move across the continent
every 2-5 days, have wavelengths of
order 3000 km, and phase speeds in the
region of 10-15 ms-1, confirming earlier
studies of AEWs by (Reed et al. 1977).
The NOAA’s Tropical Prediction Center
(TPC) identified many AEWs during the
2005 Atlantic Hurricane season as
precursors to tropical cyclones.
Features matching information in TPC
reports can be singled out from Fig. 1.
At least 10 out of the 2005 August and
September total of 12 tropical cyclones
are attributed to AEWs, including 7
major Hurricanes in these two months.
Fig. 1 Hovmoller diagram of 700 hPa unfiltered meridional wind, averaged
between 5oN and 15oN for the period 16 Aug. – 16 Sep. 2005
4.0 Zonal Winds
The basic state variables are computed
for the period 16 August – 16
September 2005, forming a 1 month
period centered on the passage of this
AEW. The mean zonal wind at 700 hPa
on NCEP-NCAR (RA2) for this period is
shown in Fig. 2. The African Easterly
Jet (AEJ) is located around 13oN – 17oN
The most outstanding feature in figure 1
is an AEW that has a (positive)
meridional wind signature that begins
near 30oE on 16 August and crosses the
West African coast (near 15oW) on 23
August. This system is well organized
and most distinct due to its strength
when compared to the other AEWs of
the months of August through
September which is the primary reason
for this event forming the basis of this
case study.
in Fig. 2a over the continent and close
to 17oN over the Atlantic Ocean. The
Jet is strongest on the West African
coast with a peak speed of 11ms-1 (Fig.
2a). The easterly winds can be seen to
stretch as far back as longitude 30oE.
The detail analysis of the AEJ is of
interest since it acts as a source of
energy for the African wave disturbaces.
Fig. 2b shows the zonal wind cross
section averaged between17.5oW and
30oE, features an AEJ with a maximum
speed of 10 ms-1 at 600 hPa near 14oN.
The figure also features a shallow
westerlies from the surface to about 950
hPa level, and is located between 4.5oN
and 11oN. The depth of the westerlies
are seen to decrease with increasing
latitudes, but fizzle out at about 18oN.
Above 950 hPa level, easterlies
dominate the flow pattern. Results
presented here further suggest that
Fig. 2a. Zonal wind at 700 hPa averaged between 00UTC16Aug. – 18UTC16Sep.2005
(RA2)
equatorial westerlies significantly
modulate interannual variability. These
serve to displace the jet and associated
disturbances poleward and to enhance
convective activity. From this monthly
mean structure, AEJ core can
reasonably differ from a few-day mean
(map not shown).
 Fig. 2b: Mean zonal wind components (ms-1) from RA2, averaged between 17.5oW
and 30oE for the period 00UTC16Aug. – 18UTC16Sep.2005
5.0 Wind and Vorticity Fields
The meridional wind at 700 hPa serves
to highlight the Rossby wavelike aspects
at the level of the AEJ, and relative
vorticity at 850 hPa serves to highlight
the vorticity centers that are associated
with AEWs. Figure 3 shows the 850hPa
relative vorticity compared with a 700
hPa meridional wind (map not shown)
over West Africa from 16 August to 23
August 2005. Some well defined
features of the AEW can be seen
roughly from 15o and 20oE westward. In
the 700 hPa meridional wind field, a
synoptic-scale trough is first seen over
West Africa on 16 August at 0000 UTC
and moves into the Atlantic on 23
August. This is consistent with the
information presented in the Hovmoller
Diagram (Fig. 1). A comparison of the
700 hPa meridional wind and satellite
imagery (Fig. 4) indicates that over West
Africa, the center of the observed
convection is always ahead of the
westward moving trough, consistent with
previous composites studies (e.g, Reed
et al 1977).
A significant vorticity center at 850 hPa
propagates along the baroclinic zone.
The vorticity center can first be seen on
16 August at 1200 UTC (Fig. 3a) over
southern Chad (approximately 11oN,
17oE). The vorticity center can be
tracked over subsequent analysis times
to a position close to the West African
coast (13oN, 13oW) on 20 August at
0000 UTC (Fig. 3b) and (17oN, 14oW) on
23 August at 1200UTC (Fig. 3c). From
wind field analysis, the 850 hPa vortex
over Guinea stagnates and intensifies
for the 24 hour as the upstream 700 hPa
trough continues to move westward.
With the passage of the 700 hPa trough
and observed convection, (Fig. 4) the
vortex over Guinea moves into the
eastern Atlantic Ocean. This suggests
the possibility of an interaction or
merger between the vortex over Guinea
and the vorticity associated with the 700
hPa trough. It is this vorticity center that
can be directly linked to Hurricane
Katrina (not shown).
 Fig. 3a

Fig. 3b
Fig. 3c
Fig. 3. 850 hPa Relative vorticity (contours) shown every 12 h from 1200 UTC on the
16Aug. 2005 until 1200 UTC on 23 Aug. 2005
6.0 Satellite Observations
This study focuses on the mesoscale
convective system (MCS) that is
triggered over the Darfur area of Sudan
on 16 August 2005. This event is
crucial for the subsequent development
of Hurricane Katrina in the eastern
Atlantic Ocean. Figure 1 shows an
intense AEW in the meridional wind
field, that is associated with an
organized westward moving convective
system, shown by an Infra-red (IR)
satellite imagery in Fig. 4. A very
distinct feature can be tracked in the IR
imagery from an initial region of
convection on 16 August (see Figs. 4(a-
b)), evolving through several stages and
moving off the West African coast on 23
August 2005. It should be noted that IR
imagery before 15 August 2005 is not
available during this study. The initial
convection occurs around 1500UTC on
15 August 2005 (map not shown) near
12oN, 30oE. This is a mountainous area
in the Darfur region of western Sudan,
and a region favored for the initiation of
long-lived mesoscale convective
weather systems (Hodges and
Thorncroft 1997). It is observed that the
initial convection is located east of and
earlier than the first location of the AEW
shown in the Hovmoller diagram of
meridional wind (Fig. 1). This suggests
that the convection acts as the
precursor for the AEW that develops
downstream. Subsequent satellite
images show that this convective region
rapidly develops another long-lived
mesoscale convective system that
moves across West Africa. The
convection usually starts from Darfur
region around 1200 UTC. The
brightness of the pixels indicate that the
amount of very deep convection begins
to decay 18 to 20 h after the initiation,
by which time the center of the
convective region is close to 10oE (Fig.
4). There is a reduced amount of deep
convection within the convective region
for the following 12 h as it moves over
western Chad, northern Cameroon and
into northeastern Nigeria. Deep
convection occurs on the leading edge
of the remnants of the first convective
burst along the Gulf of Guinea coast
(Fig. 4b). This convection decays after
approximately 12 h, in agreement with
the movement into a region of lower
mean equivalent potential temperature
near the coast. In addition to this
continuously evolving region of
convection propagating westward, the
IR imagery shows another interesting
feature. Persistent localized convection
occurs over Guinea highlands,
beginning at 1800 UTC and continuing
until it is incorporated into the westward
propagating region of convection. From
these series of analyses, it is likely that
Fig. 4a
interactions between convection
occurring over the Guinea highlands
and the propagating convection may
have played a role in the formation of
the offshore tropical cyclone.
Fig. 4b
Fig. 4c
 Fig. 4d
6.1 IR Temperature
Figure 5 shows a longitude-Time section
of IR temperature of less than 235oK.
This cross section is also used to infer
convection across the West African
region. It further indicates areas of
strong convection over places of high
elevations, and mainly between west of
15oE and 25oE. The convection here is
also associated with the westward
movement of the AEWs up till the time
they enter eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Fig. 5. Longitude-Time diagram of IR Cloud Temperature

At 1800 UTC on 23 August, the TPC
best-track data places Tropical
Depression 10 at 23.1oN, 75.1oW
(Richard et al. 2005) within one of these
regions of convection. It is also
observed, twenty-four hours after
crossing the West African coast (around
0600 UTC 24 August 2005) a single
organized, cyclonically rotating cloud
mass near 23oW (identified by the TPC
as Tropical storm Katrina) dominates
the cloud features in this region. In their
2005 Tropical Cyclone Report, Knabb et
al, has argued that Katrina involves the
complex genesis of the interaction of a
tropical wave, the middle tropospheric
remnants of tropical Depression Ten,
and an upper middle tropospheric
trough. They conclude that this trough,
located over the western Atlantic and
the Bahamas, produces strong westerly
shear across Tropical Depression Ten,
causing it to degenerate on 24 August
approximately 825 n mi east of
Barbados. The “best tract” of the path
of the center of Katrina according to the
National Hurricane Center (NHC), is
shown in Fig. 6.

Hurricane Katrina
23-31 August
40
31 Hurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Dep.
Extratropical
Subtr. Storm
35 Subtr. Dep.
Low / Wave
00 UTC Pos/Date
30 12 UTC Position
PPP Min. press (mb)
928 mb

30

920 mb
902 mb
29
26
25
25
28 984 mb
27

24

20
-95 -90 -85 -80 -75 -70

Fig. 6. Best track positions for Hurricane Katrina, 23-30 August 2005.
Source: www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TPC-AL122005_katrina.pdf
7. Summary and conclusions
A case-study approach has been used
to describe the evolution of an intense
AEW from its initiation in Darfur, western
Sudan (near 12oN, 30oE) on 15 August
until it crosses the West African coast
on 24 August 2005. This system was
the strongest AEW in the summer of
2005. The results show that the AEWs
are preceded by a large convective
event composed of several mesoscale
convective systems over elevated
Acknowledgements
I wish to thank the Director of African
Desk of Climate Prediction Center, Dr.
Wassila Thiaw who conscienciously and
consistently monitored and supervised
this project from the beginning to the
end. Numerous discussions with Dr.
Thiaw have also added insight into the
results. My special appreciation also
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