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Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Construction and Building Materials


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/conbuildmat

Four-layer perceptron approach for strength prediction of UHPC


Joaquín Abellán-García a,b,⇑
a
PhD Candidate of the Department of Civil Engineering at the Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain
b
Professor of Civil Engineering at Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito, Bogotá, Colombia

h i g h l i g h t s

 A model for predicting the compressive strength of UHPC was developed.


 The model considers the inclusion of several SCM as component of UHPC.
 The model can be used regardless the maximum size of the aggregate.
 VPD and cement content are the most important factors in improving UHPC’s strength.
 The model can be used to predict the properties of new mixtures with good accuracy.

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: This research is aimed to develop a four-layer multi-layer-perceptron (MLP) model for predicting the
Received 10 February 2020 compressive strength of ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC), regardless of the combination of a
Received in revised form 10 April 2020 wide range of supplementary cementitious materials (SCM) or the maximum size of aggregate used.
Accepted 4 May 2020
UHPC is a high-tech type of concrete resulted of the mixture of several constituents. Therefore, the effect
of each component and their interactions on compressive strength is more difficult to understand than in
conventional concrete. A total of 210 own experimental campaign data added to 717 published work
Keywords:
throughout the world data were used for training purposes by using the R-code language. To analyze
UHPC
MLP
the relationships between the UHPC’s components and strength, the Olden algorithm was used. The
Compressive strength interpretation of both the statistical performance metrics and the results of Olden’s sensitivity analysis
Resilient back-propagation algorithm indicated that the proposed model was an efficient approach for predicting the compressive strength
Olden algorithm of UHPC. The trained MLP model can be used for forecasting the compressive strength for a given
Maximum size of aggregate UHPC mixture design in quick time without performing any trial.
SCM Ó 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction years, great efforts have been made in achieving a less expensive
and more sustainable UHPC, by using supplementary cementitious
Over the last twenty years, remarkable advances have taken materials (SCM) as replacement for cement (partial), quartz pow-
place in the research on ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC). der (total) and silica fume (partial or total). Therefore, some indus-
UHPC is a type high-tech concrete that is characterized by its trial by-products have been used as components of UHPC’s binder
ultra-high compressive strength, low permeability, and improved [10] such as fly ash (FA), ground granulated blast slag furnace
durability [1–8]. However, due to the absence of a coarse aggregate (GGBSF), recycled glass powder (GP), rice husk ash (RHA) and fluid
together with its need of achieving high packing density, UHPC catalytic cracking residue (FC3R) as well as other SCM such lime-
contents of binder used (usually cement and silica fume) are rela- stone powder (LP) and metakaolin (MK). Among others, RHA was
tively higher in relation to conventional concrete. The latter analyzed as SCM in UHPC with successful results in strength and
increases its cost and carbon footprint [1,2,9]. Therefore, notwith- durability due to its high silica content and the internal-curing pro-
standing the superb performance in strength and durability, UHPC cess of the concrete [11]. Blending limestone powder in UHPC’s
has not been widely applied in construction primarily because of binder enhanced the hydration process at the early-age, giving
its high costs and carbon footprint. According to that, in recent higher particle packing, density and enhancing mechanical proper-
ties [12]. Besides, nano-CaCO3 as a component of binder was also
⇑ Address: PhD Candidate of the Department of Civil Engineering at the investigated [13]. The conclusion of that work showed that com-
Polytechnic University of Madrid (UPM), Madrid, Spain. pressive strength increased a 17% compared to the UHPC control
E-mail address: j.abellang@alumnos.upm.es

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conbuildmat.2020.119465
0950-0618/Ó 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
2 J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465

specimens without nano-CaCO3 [13]. On the other hand, Soliman & RHA, FC3R, MK and LP in addition to mineral powder such as
Tagnit-Hamou [14] conducted compressive tests on UHPC wherein quartz powder (QP). The model developed was also able to con-
fine glass powder (FGP), with a mean particle size (d50) of 3.8 mm sider form paste (non-aggregate concrete) to a maximum size of
was used as partial substitution of silica fume. They demonstrated aggregate of 19 mm.
that compressive strength of 235 and 220 MPa could be achieved
when using steam curing and replacing 30% and 50% of SF with
2. Database
FGP respectively. In another study by the same authors recycled
glass powder was used to take the place of quartz powder as well
2.1. Data collection
as partial substitution of quartz sand, and cement [15,16].
Other studies of UHPC were performed containing FA, SF and
FC3R, a by-product of the crude oil industry [17,18]. Abellan Datasets containing dosages and 28-days compressive strength
et al. [1] performed an UHPC mixture with a low silica fume and of UHPC were collected from several international symposiums on
cement content by using limestone powder and recycled glass high and ultra-high-performance concrete (including the interna-
powder as SCM. In other research the same authors demonstrated tional symposiums held in Kassel [25–28]), PhD thesis, and other
the capacity of FC3R when used as SCM [2]. These investigations published works. Only those dosages with information of the vir-
tual packing density or/and the mean particle size of all component
revealed the possibility of partial replacement of cement and silica
fume in UHPC mixes by other SCM, without significantly reducing were collected, totalizing 717 observations from the scientist liter-
ature. In addition, 210 experimental tests with different combina-
its compressive strength.
The key properties of UHPC with containing several SCMs tions of SCM were performed in various laboratories. As a result,
the present investigation has had a total of 927 observations for
require to be investigated experimentally due to the unclear com-
bination effects of different materials and dosages being utilized in the development of the mathematical model.
The values of compressive strength were transformed to cube of
the mixture. Besides, most of times laboratory tests are labor-
intensive, time-consuming, and expensive [5]. In order to decrease 100 mm side by means of transformation factors, owing to differ-
ent specimens shape and dimensions were observed in published
the experimental works and mix designs, probabilistic models can
be successfully applied to predict the compressive strength of con- investigations and experimental works [29–32]. The multiplication
transforming factors used are listed in Table 1.
crete. However, these models cannot be employed when the
approaching problem involves too many independent factors and On the one hand, the experimental campaign only dealt with
ASTM Type III HE cement and siliceous sand, in addition to not
the interactions amidst them are either too complex or unknown
to represent [5,6,19]. In the case like the concrete using several including quartz powder in the dosages. On the other hand, the
definitive database, enriched with other researches, included vari-
SCM the use of traditional techniques of approach fails to achieve
the expected accuracy and predictability, owing to its large amount ous types of cement, different possibilities of aggregate, from
pastes to concrete with coarse aggregate, and even considered
of components [19].
On the other hand, progresses in Artificial Neural Network dosages with quartz powder.
(ANN) have had an ever-expanding application for approaching
the real-world problems due to its immense ability to map non- 2.2. Dealing with the outliers
linear and unknown relationships between input and output data
pairs. Because of the latter, those mathematical procedures had Before performing regression analyses it was necessary to deal
demonstrated its effectiveness in answering difficult and complex with outliers, as they can greatly affect the resulting model [33].
engineering problems [20]. Hence, a descriptive statistical analysis was carried out on each
In the engineering field, ANN models have been employed in variable to identify outliers [34]. Unusual distributions (skewness),
applications like detection of structural damage, water resources data entry errors and outliers in the data were detected using
engineering, traffic engineering, structural system identification, bivariate boxplots. Bivariate boxplots are two-dimensional equiva-
material behavior modeling, concrete mix proportioning and con- lent of single variable boxplots that are employed to spot inconsis-
crete strength forecasting [21,22]. In fact, the application of ANN tent data and outliers by robust methods, drawing ellipses that lay
to forecast mechanical properties of pastes, mortars and concretes out possible disturbing observations [35]. Nevertheless, trusting in
had become one of the most fertile fields in the scientist literature the use of this methodology without a critical analysis of the data
of civil engineering production [23]. However, until now few inves- could also be a dangerous practice. Some of the suspicious points
tigations have been conducted on forecasting the performance of pointed out by bivariate boxplots could be showing the real behav-
UHPC using neural networks. Among those few researches, Ehsan ior of the data, while the rest of the observations could just be
Ghafari et al. [6], Taghaddos et al. [24], and Zhang and Zhao [5] clumped together very closely. Fig. 1 depicts the bivariate boxplot
investigations can be highlighted. Yet only one of these investiga- for the pair of variables compressive strength (MPa) and water con-
tions includes other supplementary cementitious material (i.e. fly tent (volume ratio). This graph clearly illustrates an example of the
ash) in addition to silica fume [5]. Furthermore, only one of the situation where important data would be lost if all the data marked
three considered the addition of quartz flour [6]. as outliers were to be eliminated. In Fig. 1 25% of the dosages con-
The main objective of this research work was to develop a four- taining MK (blue points of the graph) could be considered as out-
layer (i.e. one input, two hidden and one output) neural network liers (red points) when falling out of the ellipse. Having said that,
model for predicting the 28-days compressive strength of UHPC. it is important to highlight that several studies have demonstrated
The model was designed in such a way that it could consider any that the inclusion of MK in a concrete requires more water or
combination of a broad spectrum of SCM, viz., SF, FA, GGBSF, GP, superplasticizer to reach a determined workability, due to its reac-

Table 1
Transforming factors to turn the compressive strength results to 100 mm side cube specimen.

Type of specimen Cube Cube Cube Cube Cube Cyl. Cyl. Cyl. Cyl.
Dimensions (mm) 150 100 70 50 40 50  100 75  150 100  200 150  300
Factor to 100 mm cube 1.119 1.000 0.935 0.962 1.121 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.063
J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465 3

minimum similarities. Preprocessing or normalization of data


eliminates the possibility of neural network bias towards the dif-
ferent identities and scales down all the input and output data.
Since sigmoid function was used as activation function, linear scal-
ing in the range [0, 1] has been used as depicted in Eq. (1).
x  xmin
xnormsigmoid ¼ ð1Þ
xmax  xmin

where xnorm is the normalized value of the variable x, xmax and xmin
are the minimum and maximum values of variable x respectively.
Table 2 shows the range of variation of all variables considered
in the database (including both experimental and collected
dosages) after dealing with the outliers.

Fig. 1. Bivariate boxplot for the pair of variables Compressive strength and Water
content.
3. Experimental investigation

A total of 210 different dosages were manufactured in order to


determine its compressive strength at 28 days without any heat
tive alumina-silicate contain and its amorphous shape [36–39]. treatment. Cube specimens of 50 mm side were used to measure
Furthermore, the polycarboxylate amount used in UHPC is compressive strength according to ASTM C109 [41].
restricted because its excess can make the mixtures sticky [40],
making it difficult for the mixture to expulse the entrapped air, 3.1. Materials
which has a significant negative effect on the strength of the con-
crete. Hence, removing the observations with metakaolin by show- The materials used to develop the UHPC were locally available
ing a higher water content outside the ellipse would not be in Colombia. ASTM Type III HE cement was employed. The HE
adequate. Among other similar situations that could be highlighted cement had a mean particle diameter (d50) of 8 lm and specific
are those corresponding to the pairs FC3R content with the water gravity of 3.15. The SF utilized in the concrete complied with ASTM
to total powders ratio and RHA content with the water to binder C-1240 specifications and had d50 of 0.15 lm, and a specific gravity
ratio. of 2.20. Silica sand of a specific gravity of 2.65, maximum particle
Once this procedure was completed, 90 observations were elim- size (dmax) of 600 lm, and d50 of 165 lm was used as aggregate in
inated from the data base, leaving 837 for training and validation all the experimental mixtures.
purposes. Besides cement, silica fume and silica sand (SS), the following
Figs. 2–5 depicts some of the descriptive statistics of the data- SCM were used as component of binder: locally available fly ash,
base, after removing the outliers. ground granulated blast slag furnace, two sizes of recycled glass
powder, rice husk ash, fluid catalytic cracking residue, metakaolin,
and two sizes of limestone powder. Locally available FA with d50 of
2.3. Data normalization 30 lm and specific gravity of 2.32 was employed as part of binder
for some mixtures. GGBSF considered in the experimental cam-
After the outliers were removed from the database; the next paign had d50 of 2.4 lm and specific gravity of 2.95. Rice husk
step consisted in data normalization. The input data and output ash used in the present work was produced by combustion with
data generally comprise of different identities either having no or a peak temperature about 700 °C. The ash obtained was ground
in a vibrating ball mill for 90 min. After treatment RHA had a d50
of 7.5 lm and a specific gravity of 2.16. FC3R with d50 of 9.5 lm
and specific gravity of 2.76 was also used in some experimental
dosages. Glass powder and glass flour were obtained by grounding
locally available recycled glass with a jet mill to different degrees
of fineness, by applying different grinding speeds. The glass flour
(GF) with d50 of 28 lm and glass powder (GP) with d50 of 7 lm,
both with a specific density of 2.55, were considered. Commer-
cially available MK used in some of the dosages had d50 of 10 lm
and specific gravity of 2.66. Two sizes of commercialized limestone
powder with a specific gravity of 2.73 were used to complete the
list of SCM. LP with d50 of 15 lm and micro-limestone powder with
d50 of 2 lm were considered in some of the dosages. Table 3
depicts the chemical composition of the materials employed in this
research. Fig. 6 shows the particle size distribution (PSD) of the
cement, silica fume, fly ash, RHA, GGBSF, glass powder (GP), glass
flour (GF), FC3R, MK, limestone powder (LP), micro-limestone pow-
der (micro-LP) and silica sand (SS). A polycarboxylate (PCE)-based
HRWR with a specific gravity of 1.07 and solid content of 40%
was employed as a superplasticizer.
The supplementary cementitious materials utilized were stud-
ied by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Some of these images
Fig. 2. Histogram of compressive strength of the dosages contained into the are shown in Fig. 7. Results indicated the lack of porosity of the two
database. products related to recycled glass, the high porosity of the RHA
4 J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465

Fig. 3. Pie chart from data: a) Number of components of binder; b) Cement ASTM types reported; c) Maximum size of aggregate; and d) Type of coarse aggregate when used.

Fig. 4. Boxplot for the component of UHPC in the data base and some relationships such as water-to-binder ratio, water-to-total-powders ratio and virtual packing density.

particle, the spherical shape of the FA and SF particles, and the components of the concrete were determined by the A&Amod curve
small size of the latter. [42] according to Eq. (2).

 
3.2. Specimens Dq  Dqmin
PðDÞ ¼   ð2Þ
Dqmax  Dqmin
The experimentally concrete mixtures corresponded to 15
groups of component combinations. Once the combination of
SCM was selected, a three-factor Design of Experiments (DoE) with where D is the particle size, P(D) is the weight fraction of total solids
14 runs each was established and performed. The first factor of DoE that are smaller than D, Dmax and Dmin are the maximum and min-
corresponded to the amount of cement, the second to the amount imum particle sizes, respectively, and q is the Fuller exponent. The
of water and the third to the amount of superplasticizer. The other optimal value of q was determined in previous research [4].
J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465 5

Fig. 5. Scatterplot matrix for every pair of variables in the database including the compressive strength of concrete (F28).

Table 2
Range of variation of all variables considered in this research.

C* SF* FA* GGBSF* RGP* RHA* FC3R* MK* LP* W* HRWR* QP* MSAy WB WP A* VPD CSà
xmax 0.503 0.155 0.250 0.247 0.202 0.177 0.091 0.161 0.190 0.364 0.063 0.235 19,000 0.322 0.322 0.694 0.877 214
xmin 0.102 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.103 0.026 0.000 0.000 0.124 0.107 0.000 0.581 100
Mean 0.246 0.063 0.016 0.008 0.027 0.004 0.005 0.002 0.025 0.202 0.026 0.026 1724 0.187 0.177 0.364 0.771 143
SD¥ 0.072 0.035 0.043 0.025 0.052 0.018 0.014 0.013 0.043 0.037 0.012 0.051 2498 0.037 0.034 0.130 0.044 23

*Expressed in m3/m3; y expressed in microns; à


Compressive strength expressed in MPa; ¥
Standard deviation.

Table 3
Physical and chemical compositions of cement and supplementary cementitious materials.

C SF FA GGBSF GP GF RHA FC3R MK LP Micro-LP SS


Specific gravity 3.16 2.20 2.32 2.95 2.55 2.55 2.16 2.76 2.66 2.73 2.73 2.65
Loss of ignition, % 2.58 0.60 11.54 0.00 0.80 1.00 4.82 10.61 2.21 42.41 42.21 0.20
SiO2, % 19.42 92.29 50.09 36.93 75.47 72.89 88.59 39.61 52.17 0.90 0.90 99.80
Al2O3, % 4.00 0.59 22.26 16.45 1.09 1.67 0.31 42.47 39.11 0.10 0.10 0.14
CaO, % 64.42 3.89 2.19 33.78 9.02 9.73 0.74 2.85 0.78 55.51 55.51 0.17
MgO, % 1.52 0.26 0.53 3.91 1.97 2.08 0.66 0.07 0.19 0.70 0.70 0.01
SO3, % 1.93 0.07 0.03 2.51 0.00 0.01 0.26 0.62 0.22 0.10 0.10 –
Na2O, % 0.19 0.31 0.31 0.39 11.65 12.54 0.26 0.61 0.24 0.03 0.03 –
K2O, % 0.39 0.54 0.99 0.40 0.75 0.76 2.46 0.06 0.20 0.01 0.00 0.05
TiO2, % 0.38 0.01 1.05 0.57 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.67 1.48 0.00 0.00 –
MnO, % 0.05 0.01 0.01 3.41 0.01 0.01 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 –
Fe2O3, % 3.61 0.24 9.33 1.24 0.79 0.81 0.29 0.69 1.07 0.05 0.05 0.04

– = not measured items.

3.3. Items of investigation value to feed the database. The molds and test setup are shown in
Fig. 8.
After each dosage was designed, a 5-liter mortar mixer was uti-
lized to fabricate the concrete. Once the mixing was completed, the
UHPC was cast in molds using a vibrating table for one minute. The 4. Analytical investigation
prisms were demolded 24 h after casting and then cured in a mois-
ture room at 20 °C until the day of the test, without any heat treat- 4.1. Artificial neural networks
ment applied. For the determination of the compressive strength,
cubes of 50 mm were evaluated. A compression testing machine The simplest form of neural network architecture is the percep-
with a capacity of 3000 kN was utilized according to ASTM C109 tron, devised by Rosenblatt in 1958 [43]. Perceptron consists of one
[41]. Three samples were evaluated for checking 28-day compres- neuron with two inputs and one output [44] and is defined as a
sive strength. The average value of these three being the reported four-tuple entity (i.e., sensors that (i) receive inputs and (ii) multi-
6 J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465

X
n
vj ¼ wij xi þ b ð3Þ
i¼1

where vj is the weighted sum of the jth neuron for the input col-
lected from the preceding layer with n neurons, wij is the weight
between the jth neuron and the ith neuron in the previous layer;
xi represents the output of the ith neuron in the preceding layer
and b is the bias [48].
Once the weighted sums of the input components are com-
puted, the activation function processes this value and ascertains
the neuron output. Some of the most utilized activation functions
are linear, ramp, tanh (hyperbolic tangent), sigmoid functions
and relu (rectified linear unit function) [49]. In this study the sig-
moid function was used as activation function for hidden layers
whereas linear function was used for output layer. The sigmoid
function takes the input, which can have any value between minus
Fig. 6. Particle size distribution of cement, sand and supplementary cementitious
and plus infinite and squashes the output in the range 0–1 [50].
materials.
The latter implies that the normalization of the data for the train-
ing of the network must be carried out.
ply them by weights, (iii) a function collecting all the weighted Regarding to the training process, Rumelhart et al. [51] devel-
data to produce a measurement on the impact of the observed phe- oped the most commonly used learning algorithm called back-
nomenon, and (iv) a constant threshold). Ascertaining these propagation (BP) for multi-layer perceptron. BP training algorithm
weights to yield a particular output is called ‘‘training”, which is is an iterative gradient designed to minimize the mean square
the procedure that allows the model to learn [45]. Fig. 9 shows error between the actual output of multi-layer feed forward neural
the schematic diagram of perceptron structure. network and the real values of response [52]. Latterly other learn-
For more complex applications, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) ing algorithms have been developed, such as the resilient back-
are used, which contain one input layer, one output layer, and propagation (Rprop) which has two main advantages over back-
one or more hidden layers as shown in Fig. 10. The multilayer per- propagation: First, training with Rprop is usually faster than train-
ceptron (feed-forward network) has been a commonly used neural ing with back-propagation. Second, Rprop remove the negative
network architecture [19,22,46]. influence of the size of the partial error derivative on the weight
Multi-layer perceptron models are composed of many highly step, as opposed to back-propagation which needs values for the
interconnected processing neurons working together [21]. Each learning rate (and frequently an optional momentum term). In
neuron is fully connected to the other through connection weights consequence only the sign of the derivative is taken into account
and receives an input signal from neurons connected to it. The suc- to indicate the direction of weight update [52,53]. For further infor-
cessive layers of neurons collect input from the previous layers; mation about Rprop refer to [52] and [53].
the outputs of neurons in each layer are inputs to neurons in the In this work, the multi-layer perceptron models were trained
next layer. To understand the latter it is necessary to analyze the using resilient backpropagation as learning algorithm.
schematic diagram of the perceptron showed in Fig. 1, where the
vector xi = (x1, x2,. . .,xn) is an input signal applied to the neuron. 4.2. Preparing training and test data set
As well, a bias is added to the neuron along with inputs. The vector
wi = (w1, w2,. . .,wn) is the weights for each input. The weighted sum The obtained data was randomized and divided into training
function computes the net input that approaches to a neuron [47]. and test datasets to facilitate training and testing of the multi-
The weighted sums of the input components are computed by layer perceptron. A total of 628 observations (75% of the data) were
using Eq. (3) as follows: used for training purposes and the remaining 209 (25% of the data)

Fig. 7. SEM of some supplementary cementitious materials used in research: (a) silica fume; (b) micro-limestone powder; (c) fly ash; (d) RHA; (e) GGBSF; (f) FC3R; (g) glass
powder; and (h) glass flour.
J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465 7

Fig. 8. Compressive specimen moulds, cubes and test set-up according to ASTM C109 [41].

Fig. 9. Schematic diagram of perceptron structure.

set would end up being very small for a neural network validation
(as in our case). In consequence, the validation scores might
change a lot depending on which data points were selected to
use for validation and which were selected for training: that is,
the validation scores might have a high variance regarding the val-
idation division. This would prevent from reliably evaluating of the
model [49].
The best practice in such situations is to utilize k-fold cross-
validation (see Fig. 11). It is based on the division of the available
observations into k partitions, instantiating k identical models,
and training each one on k – 1 partitions while checking the
remaining partition. The validation score for the model employed
is then the average of the k validation scores obtained [49]. In this
research k = 4 was considered.

4.3. MLP architecture design

Fig. 10. Schematic representation of the architecture of a two hidden layer multi- In this research a four-layer perceptron model (i.e. one input,
layer perceptron.
two hidden and one output layers) was developed using R version
3.5.2 (2018-12-20)[54] by using the neuralnet function [55]. The
selection of hidden layers and hidden layer neurons is a trial and
were used for testing of the trained models. Both subsets contained error process which frequently started by selecting a network with
all the possible components in the concrete. a minimum number of hidden layers and hidden neurons [19]. A
As well, the training data could be split into a training and a val- total of 225 different architectures were tested to achieve that
idation set to assess the neural network while keeping adjusting its optimal neural network architecture. In addition, for each of those
parameters (such as the number of neurons in the hidden layers). architectures 100 different models were computed by varying the
Nevertheless, since there are such few data points, the validation initial weight allocation of the neurons. Hence, a total of 22,500
8 J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465

Fig. 11. K-fold validation [49].

 1:50
artificial networks were developed to predict compressive strength di
of UHPC using the 837 observations. The root mean squared error bij ¼ 1  1  ð6Þ
dj
(RMSE) was used as measure of accuracy.
Seventeen input signals grouped into two different classes were The residual packing density considered for each component is
used in the input layer: depicted in Table 4.
Constituents of UHPC expressed in volume ratio. This group
included cement (C), silica fume (SF), fly ash (FA), ground granu- 4.4. Model performance evaluation
lated blast slag furnace (GGBSF), recycled glass powder (GP), rice
husk ash (RHA), fluid catalytic residue (FC3R), metakaolin (MK), The multi-layer perceptron model was trained on the training
limestone powder (LP), water (W), high range water reducer super- data, through the k-fold validation, and then the chosen model
plasticizer (HRWR), quartz powder (QP) and total aggregate (A) goodness was checked on the test set. In the present work eight
which involved from micro sand to coarse aggregate when used. different statistical parameters have been used to measure the
Relationship between component and properties of UHPC, viz., model’s predictive accuracy, viz., mean absolute error (MAE), aver-
maximum size of aggregate (MSA), water to binder ratio (WB), age error (AE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean
water to total powders ratio (WP), and virtual packing density squared error (RMSE), coefficient of efficiency (E), ratio of the root
(VPD) [56–58]. mean square error to the standard deviation of measured data
Virtual packing density VPD is not information frequently pro- (RSR), normalized mean bias error (NMBE) and coefficients of mul-
vided in the scientific papers. In most cases, it had been estimated tiple determination (R2), as indicated in Eqs. (7)–(14) respectively.
based on information provided in the articles such, mean particle 1X n 
ai  b

size (d50) of components and mixture proportions of concrete. Only MAE ¼ ai  ð7Þ
n i¼1
mixtures with enough information to guesstimate the VPD had
been included in the data base. The VPD was guesstimated based
on the compressive packing model theory [56–58]. The general for- 1X n
 
AE ¼ ai  b
ai ð8Þ
mulae that represents the virtual packing density of a granular mix n i¼1
containing n materials classes, when class i is dominant, is pre-
n 
 
sented in Eq. (4). 100 X ai  b ai 
8  9 MAPE ¼ ð9Þ
<  = n i¼1 jai j
bi 
VPD ¼ Min h  i h i  i ¼ 1;   ; n
P
:1  i1 1  b þ b b 1  1 y  nP  ;
a
j¼iþ1 1  b
b
ij i
yj  vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
j¼1 i ij i b j uP
un  2
j j

ð4Þ u a b ai
ti¼1 i
where: RMSE ¼ ð10Þ
n

VPD: Virtual packing density of an n component polydisperse Pn  2


i¼1 ai b
ai
mix according to compressive packing model theory [57] E¼1 Pn 2
ð11Þ
bi: Residual packing density of a monodisperse fraction having a i¼1 ðai  ai Þ
diameter equal to di vffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
u
di: Diameter of ith class of particles. When i > j, di < dj u RMSE
RSR ¼ u n ð12Þ
aij: Parameter describing the loosening effect exerted by class j t1 P
n
ðai  ai Þ2
on the dominant class i. See Eq. (5). i¼1
bij: Parameter describing the wall effect exerted by class j on the
Pn  
dominant class i. See Eq. (6). 1
i¼1 ai  b
ai
yi: Volume fraction of the ith class, related to the total solid NMBEð%Þ ¼ n  100 ð13Þ
ai
volume
Pn  2
sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi b
 1:02 i¼1 ai  a i
dj R2 ¼ 1  Pn  2 ð14Þ
aij ¼ 1  1  ð5Þ b
i¼1 a i
di
J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465 9

Table 4
Residual packing density considered for each component in the estimation of the VPD [56–58].

Residual packing density (b)


C SF FA GGBSF GP RHA FC3R MK LP QP Sand CA*
0.553 0.720 0.567 0.567 0.554 0.567 0.551 0.567 0.552 0.567 0.567 0.567

*Coarse aggregate.

where: a is the target or experimental value; ā represents the mean


of the target, â is the model’s output and n is the total number of
observations.
MAE is based on the absolute differences between the measured
and the estimated. Zero is the optimal value of MAE; AE represents
the average error. The smaller values of AE, the better performance
of the model [22]; MAPE is a normalized statistic that supplies a
potent way of contrasting the residual error for each data point with
the target value [19]. A good prediction performance of the model
yields a lower value of MAPE; RMSE is one of the most frequently
used error index statistics [59]. RMSE compares the observed values
to the target values and calculates the square root of the average
residual error, pointing out the error in the units (or squared units)
of the constituent of interest. The optimal value of RMSE is zero,
which indicates a perfect fit. However RMSE provides more weigh-
tage to large errors [19]; The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency or coefficient
of efficiency (E) [60] is a ratio of residual error variance to compared
variance in observed data. A E value close to unity indicates perfect
association between the observed and predicted values; RSR was
presented by Moriasi et al. [59]. RSR includes the benefits of error Fig. 12. Variations of RMSE against number of neurons in the first and second
index statistics and incorporates a normalization factor. In conse- hidden layers.
quence the resulting statistic and reported values can apply to var-
ious constituents. A lower value of RSR points out good prediction. According to Table 6 performance evaluation indicators have a
The NMBE supplies information on the mean bias in the estimations similar value in train and test set. The latter indicates the proper
from a model. A negative NMBE indicates over-prediction and a performance of the k-fold validation employed as procedure to
positive NMBE indicates under-prediction of the model [61]; Coef- avoid the overfitting of the neural network model [49] during the
ficient of determination (R2) compares the accuracy of the model training process. The proposed model forecasted the 28-day com-
with the accuracy of a superficial benchmark model wherein the pressive strength on the test dataset with a MAE value of
prediction is the mean of all samples [46]. R2 statistics is dependent 8.957 MPa, pointing out that the differences between predicted
on the linear relationships between the observed and target values and target values of compressive strength were relatively small
and may sometimes provide biased results when this relationship is for UHPC. The model under predicted the compressive strength
not linear or when the values contain many outliers. For perfect on average by 4.428 MPa, according to the AE value obtained in
association between the observed and predicted values, the value the test set. MAPE showed that the predicted compressive strength
of R2 is unity. A combined use of the performance metrics narrated deviated on average by 6.381% from target. RMSE, E and RSR statis-
above can provide an unbiased estimate for prediction ability of the tics were 9.925, 0.763, and 0.487 respectively. The NMBE statistic
neural network models. for training and testing was evaluated as 3.965% and 3.091%, show-
ing the same sign which pointed out both the consistency and
5. Results and discussion under-prediction of the model. This could be also observed in
Figs. 14–20, where most of the points fell below the 45-graded line,
5.1. Multi-layer perceptron architecture indicating the under-predicting of the model.
However, it can be observed that the R2 value was smaller than
Choosing the neural model architecture is the first important those obtained by other authors consulted, who achieved correla-
step in developing a multi-layer perceptron model that best suits tion coefficients between 0.96 and 0.98 when predicting UHPC’s
the problem at hand. Fig. 12 represents the effect of neuron num- properties using ANN [5,6]. The latter can be explained because
ber in hidden layers on RMSE during the training using k-fold val- those researchers only used data from their own experimental
idation. It is important to highlight that Fig. 12 only depicts the work, and, generally, a few SCM. The wide range of data utilized
best performance initial weight allocation of the neurons for each in this study incorporated some statistical noise into the system,
of the tested architectures. For a better understanding, these viz., the use of different types of cement and the characteristics
results are also presented in Table 5. According to this, k-fold vali- of the SCM such as physical and chemical properties; the unre-
dation RMSE best performance was achieved for four neurons in ported detail of the use of vibration during the pouring of the con-
the first hidden layer and two neurons in the second hidden layer, crete, the different nature and shape of aggregates used in the
reaching a minimum RMSE value of 10.53 MPa. Consequently, the database, and the different technology of superplasticizers consid-
network architecture shown in Fig. 13, was selected. ered in the database, among others. Nevertheless a R2 value of 0.81
was achieved in the test set by the proposed model. Moreover,
5.2. Performance evaluation of trained model Fig. 14 clearly depicts that the predicted values were highly close
to the corresponding target values.
The results of the performance evaluation of the selected model In order to demonstrate the validity of the model in different
are presented in Table 6. types of concrete according to the maximum size of the aggregate,
10 J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465

Table 5
RMSE against number of neurons in the first and second hidden layers.

Number of neurons in second hidden layer


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Number of 1 12.381 12.114 12.237 12.234 12.288 12.209 12.328 12.346 12.309 12.344 12.269 12.308 12.326 12.305 12.302
neurons in 2 11.277 11.371 11.503 11.268 11.294 11.381 11.256 11.395 11.310 11.239 11.209 11.184 11.176 11.358 11.273
first hidden 3 11.177 11.183 11.136 11.251 11.115 11.343 11.313 11.254 11.330 11.178 11.098 11.127 10.905 11.321 11.313
layer 4 10.764 10.534 10.991 11.254 11.096 11.418 11.238 11.183 11.478 11.565 11.200 11.556 11.544 11.627 11.382
5 11.294 11.160 11.114 11.071 11.438 11.167 11.410 11.374 11.364 11.685 11.833 11.936 11.988 11.915 10.908
6 11.227 11.296 11.449 11.601 11.265 11.812 11.783 11.704 12.005 12.184 12.020 12.430 12.231 12.000 12.436
7 11.239 11.312 11.043 11.777 11.577 12.241 12.190 12.419 12.238 12.450 12.393 12.933 12.688 12.512 13.398
8 11.295 11.446 11.448 11.983 12.068 12.627 12.194 12.878 13.273 12.857 13.120 13.218 13.058 13.936 13.363
9 11.842 11.535 12.138 12.124 12.481 12.837 12.959 12.959 12.900 13.444 13.536 13.546 13.707 14.340 14.452
10 11.393 11.848 12.176 12.485 12.853 12.533 12.383 13.310 13.352 13.687 14.010 14.244 14.110 13.931 14.222
11 12.007 12.131 12.351 12.753 12.953 13.068 13.516 13.587 14.335 14.255 14.388 14.765 15.006 15.037 15.117
12 12.169 12.165 12.123 13.276 12.934 13.262 13.558 14.221 14.323 15.222 14.989 14.874 15.196 15.493 15.426
13 12.637 12.388 13.013 13.552 14.277 14.549 14.449 14.899 14.322 15.288 15.461 15.793 15.318 15.384 15.865
14 13.084 12.950 13.421 13.681 14.247 14.720 14.725 15.512 15.250 15.758 15.285 15.078 15.226 15.539 15.345
15 12.758 12.746 13.916 14.005 14.655 15.188 15.073 15.571 15.454 15.445 15.571 15.516 15.796 15.598 15.559

Fig. 13. Proposed ANN architecture.

Table 6
ANN model performance measures.

Data subset Model performance


MAE AE MAPE RMSE E RSR NMBE R2
Train 8.868 5.662 6.034% 10.534 0.793 0.455 3.965% 0.857
Test 8.958 4.423 6.381% 9.925 0.763 0.487 3.091% 0.810

the evaluation of results has been carried out on the following split  UHPC whose largest aggregate is micro sand with maximum
of the dosages database: size aggregate in the range of 150–600 mm.
 UHPC with maximum size aggregate in the range of 800–
 UPHC pastes with no aggregate 1,200 mm.
J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465 11

Fig. 16. Regression plot for UHPC with maximum size of aggregate in the range of
Fig. 14. Regression plot for all UHPC dosages. 150–600 mm.

Fig. 17. Regression plot for UHPC with maximum size of aggregate in the range of
800–1200 mm.
Fig. 15. Regression plot for UHPC pastes.

maximum size aggregate in the range 1500–3000 mm, achieving


R2 value of 0.757.
 UHPC with maximum size aggregate in the range of 1,500–
3,000 mm.
 UHPC with maximum size aggregate in the range of 4,000– 5.3. Connection weight approach (CWA)
5,000 mm.
 UHPC containing coarse aggregate. Neural networks models have been usually denominated as
‘‘black box” since they present little explanatory insight into the
The regression plots showing the prediction of selected model contributions of the input signals in the prediction process. Never-
on the database splits are exhibited at Figs. 15–20. Furthermore, theless, to explore the connection between inputs signals and out-
Table 7 presents a comparative between the coefficients of multi- put Olden et al. [62] presented the Connection Weight Approach
ple regression obtained in those divisions. Results demonstrated (CWA) thereby assessing the importance of the input variables
that the model had an acceptable accuracy in all rages considered, on the neural network outcome. This procedure estimates impor-
but an exceptional performance when dealing with pastes, 800– tance as the summed product of the raw input-hidden and
1200 mm of maximum size aggregate, and coarse aggregate UHPC, hidden-output connection weights between each input and output
achieving R2 values of 0.892, 0.961 and 0.911 respectively. On the node. One benefit of this procedure is that the relative contribu-
other hand, the worst performance occurred when dealing with tions of each connection weight are maintained in both magnitude
12 J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465

Fig. 18. Regression plot for UHPC with maximum size of aggregate in the range of Fig. 20. Regression plot for UHPC containing coarse aggregate.
1500–3000 mm.

the components that best fit the properties required in future


research.
The results of the CWA analysis are shown in Fig. 21, wherein it
can be noticed that the most importance positive input was Virtual
Packing Density, in agreement with those studies that justify the
outstanding mechanical properties of UHPC due to its ultra-dense
structure [63–65]. It is also important to highlight that the effect
of silica fume (SF) could appeared to be masked into the effect of
VPD, due to the fact that silica fume content, because its lower size
(see Figs. 8 and 9a), is responsible for enhancing VPD by filling the
gap between the other particles [9]. Moreover, CWA also pointed
out that cement content had the second positive importance in
compressive strength. In relation to the latter, studies had demon-
strated that each kg/m3 of cement provides a compressive strength
of 0.11–0.14 MPa in high-performance concrete [66]. Previous
works by the author [1,2], demonstrated the positive effect of
HRWR on 28-dat compressive strength of UHPC, in agreement with
what was showed in the CWA graph. QP, FA, RHA and LP were also
suggested as have a positive effect on strength, although with a
more limited importance. Positive influence of RHA on compres-
sive strength could be explained by its high siliceous content (as
indicated in Table 3) and its high porosity (see Fig. 9d) which drives
Fig. 19. Regression plot for UHPC with maximum size of aggregate in the range of
to an internal-curing process of the concrete [11]. CWA indicated
4000–5000 mm.
that MSA, volume of aggregate (A) and GGBSF had no significance
for compressive strength. A few importance negative effect were
reported for FC3R, in agreement with a previous experimental
and sign. For example, connection weights that switch sign (i.e., work [2]. Furthermore, CWA analysis suggested that GP appear
positive to negative) between the input-hidden to hidden-output to have a narrowed negative effect on compressive strength of
layers would have a canceling effect. The CWA methodology was UHPC. It could be explained by its needle shape (see Fig. 9g) which
employed in this research to assess the importance of every input could prejudice compressive strength of concrete. As expected, the
variable in compressive strength. These analyzes are very useful to CWA analysis outcome indicated that water content (W), water to
understand the influence of each of the components of the UHPC binder ratio (WB) and water to total powders ratio (WP) had the
on 28-day compressive strength, as well as to be able to select most negative importance for the 28-day compressive strength.

Table 7
Coefficients of multiple determination (R2) for database splits.

Data subset Maximum size of UHPC aggregate (mm)


0 (Pastes) 0 (Pastes) 0 (Pastes)
Train 0.890 0.813 0.939 0.773 0.796 0.902
Test 0.892 0.824 0.961 0.757 0.776 0.911
J. Abellán-García / Construction and Building Materials 256 (2020) 119465 13

Fig. 21. Importance of the input variables for compressive strength.

6. Conclusions and future research Declaration of Competing Interest

In this paper, an accuracy four-layer perceptron was developed The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
to predict the 28-day compressive strength of UHPC using different cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
combinations of supplementary cementitious materials viz., silica to influence the work reported in this paper.
fume, fly ash, ground granulated blast slag furnace, glass powder,
rice husk ash, fluid catalytic cracking residue, metakaolin, and lime- Acknowledgements
stone powder, in addition to quartz powder. Furthermore, different
range of maximum aggregate were considered in the trained four- Special thanks go to APOLO from EAFIT university (Medellín-
layer perceptron. And in order to avoid overfitting, k-fold validation Colombia) and OSIRIS from Escuela Colombiana de Ingenieria Julio
with four partitions was employed, thereby leading to higher confi- Garavito (Bogotá-Colombia) for the servers and computer related
dence of the model when predicting on new data. From the obtained support. Also, to Cementos Argos SA. for donating most of the
results of this investigation, the following conclusions are drawn: materials used in the research described herein and provide the
SEM images of the components. The supply of recycled glass from
1) The proposed model based on a wide range of experimental Cristaleria Peldar SA, FC3R from Ecopetrol SA, and GGBSF from Ger-
and previous work data can be very handy for forecasting dau SA for this research is highly appreciated. The writers would
the compressive strength of UHPC in quick time. It could also like to acknowledge the support and suggestions of Escuela
be helpful in the developing of UHPC as decision support Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito and Polytechnic University
tool, predicting the compressive strength of a particular of Madrid (UPM).
mix design. This procedure will considerably decrease the
effort, costs and time to design an UHPC dosage for a cus-
tomized strength without performing multiple trials. Data availability
2) The results of the combined use of the performance metrics,
which included MAE, AE, MAPE, RMSE, E, RSR, NMBE, R2, The data used during the present study and the R-code gener-
supplied an unbiased estimate which proved the adequacy ated are available from the corresponding author on reasonable
of the proposed four-layer perceptron model. request.
3) The outcomes of the Olden’s sensitivity CWA analysis sug-
gested consistency with the results of several international References
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