Weekly Report

21st Feb - 26th Feb 2011

AGRI MAR
AGRI MARKET

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“Profit booking continues in spices and pulses”

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 J E E R A (Jan)
JEERA SURGES ON EXTENDED BUYING
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Jeera spot prices and futures surged on last week Ÿ Fresh overseas orders
owing to improved buying at lower levels and Ÿ Demand from the overseas Script Levels
reports of fresh overseas orders. Forecast of rains in
R3 18328
Rajasthan in the coming week is also supporting
Jeera prices. Rains and dew might cause damage to
R2 17239
the standing crop thereby impacting the yield. R1 16559
Production of Jeera in 2011 is expected to be the MARKET OVERVIEW PP 16130
same as in the previous year at around 25 lakh bags Jeera is technically strong on charts. Last S1 15560
(of 55 kgs each). However, production is likely to be week Jeera remained bullish throughout S2 15031
revised owing to bad weather in Rajasthan and the week and was not sustaining at lower S3 13932
Gujarat. In the international markets particularly levels. For the next week Jeera has
Syria and Turkey, the fresh crop arrivals are slated to resistance at 16650 and support at 15300.
commence from April. These countries are currently
reported to have low carry over stock and are
awaiting arrivals from the new crop. Production of
Jeera in Syria and Turkey was around 20,000 tonnes
and 15,000 tonnes respectively in 2010. Jeera prices
in the intraday may trade bullish owing to forecast
STRATEGY
of rains in Rajasthan and reports of dew in Gujarat
which might damage the standing crop. This will Jeera is in an upward consolidation phase
support prices to strengthen in the short term (in and one should use the strategy of buy on
February). In medium to long term (March onwards), lower levels. If in the coming week Jeera
Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the sustains above the level of 16650 then we
overseas and domestic buyers and fresh arrivals in can expect the level of 17000, and if it
the domestic mandis. sustains below 15600 then we can see the
level of 15300.

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 G U A R S E E D (Jan)
GUARSEED RISES ON SHORT COVERING
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Spot prices of Guar and Guar gum strengthened in Ÿ Lower arrivals in the domestic
week due to improved buying at lower levels. Ÿ Improved buying at lower levels Script Levels
Reports of lower arrivals in the domestic market
helped prices to gain. There has been rolling over of R3 3325
positions from February to March contract. Fresh R2 3094
buying was witnessed throughout the week. R1 3006
Despite the lower demand for Guar seed, the ready MARKET OVERVIEW PP 2863
Gum found some buyers across the spot markets
which increased the spot price and in turn Last week Guarseed did our target of 2770 S1 2775
supported the prices at futures. The Guar seed and below the level of 2715 but was not able S2 2632
Guar gum futures are projected to trade on a to sustain at lower levels and we saw good S3 2401
positive note on extended buying interest. Since the buying coming at lower levels and closed
prices have declined sharply in last couple of days, near to week high. For the next week
buying interest is emerging. Most of 2010-11 crop Guarseed has resistance at 2970 and
has been sold and is with the Guar gum support at 2650.
manufacturers. Indian traders are getting good gum
export enquiries, which might render support to the
market. The exporters have bought gum to be
delivered at the Mumbai ports to meet the long
pending consignments. The supply crunch of the STRATEGY
gum and the stocking has led to this situation and For next week in Guar seed traders should
sudden perk in prices. The export shipments have go for buying at lower levels strategy, if
started to get dispatched to the concerned Guar seed sustains above the level of 2970
destinations.
we can see the level of 3030, and below
2710 it can touch the level of 2650.

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 S O YA B E A N ( F e b )
SOYBEAN WEAKENS ON SHORT SELLING
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
The bearish trend in the Soybean futures market Ÿ Shift in global soy meal demand
continued throughout the week. Investors and Ÿ Decline in physical demand Script Levels
traders advanced their Bean sales on expectation of
R3 2696
further shrink in demand for its by-products. Likely
shift in global Soy meal demand from India to Latin R2 2585
America has been putting pressure on the market. R1 2524
Spot markets witnessed subdued trading. Soy meal MARKET OVERVIEW PP 2474
spot prices have been declining due to weak Last week Soybean was down for most S1 2413
demand from local traders as well as exporters. The part of week but we saw good buying S2 2363
difference of Soy meal between India and Brazil has coming at 2400. For the next week
been narrowing down as Brazilian traders are S3 2252
Soybean has resistance at 2600 and
offering their meal at lower price compared to India.
support at 2380.
Indian market moved in line with weak overseas
markets, which were down on dampening demand
and improvement in weather condition. The
physical demand for Soybean and its by-products
has been declining for last couple of days on fear of
likely government intervention to control higher
food inflation. In the upcoming budget, food STRATEGY
inflation is major concern and government might Soybean is moving in an upward channel
announce further measures to control it. The Soy
on charts and one should look for buying
meal export demand has been slowing down thus
opportunities at lower levels, if Soybean
prompting crushers to stay away from active bean
sustains above the level of 2600 we can see
purchases. The crush margin is also declining due to
the level of 2650, and on the downside if it
decline in Soy meal price. Indian government hinted
sustains below the level of 2380 we can
the market that it may take necessary steps to
see Soybean at 2320 level.
control food inflation by showing intention to
extend stock limit on edible oil and oilseeds. Larger
Brazilian crop expectation, shift in demand from US
to Brazil following lower cash price, improvement in
Argentina weather condition and shrink in Chinese
demand added bearishness to the market. Weak
trend in overseas market is likely to weigh on Indian
market.

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 C H A N A (Jan)
CHANA FALLS ON FRESH ARRIVALS
Weekly Report

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Chana spot prices and futures declined last week Ÿ Increased arrivals
owing to commencement of fresh arrivals in the Ÿ Profit booking Script Levels
coming weeks. Further, reports of increased supply
pressure of imported Chana along with the R3 2915
commencement of fresh arrivals from Maharashtra R2 2780
and Karnataka may pressurize prices. There are
R1 2699
reports that rains in Rajasthan might occur in the
coming days. Rains during this period are beneficial
MARKET OVERVIEW PP 2645
for the growth of Chana crop. This will help to Last week Chana was in a tight range and S1 2564
improve the yield of the crop in this season. A vessel was neither sustaining at higher levels nor S2 2510
of Chickpea containing 12 tonnes of Chana has at lower, but still we can see good buying
arrived at Mumbai port and this may add to the S3 2375
coming in Chana at lower levels For the
supply pipeline of the commodity in the domestic
markets. The output of pulses is forecasted to next week Chana has resistance at 2775
increase 13.2% to 16.51 million tonnes. Reports of and support at 2670.
crop damage in MP have initially supported Chana
prices to gain, however, we believe that the actual
loss would be very less than anticipated earlier.
Globally, Canadian Chickpeas output is expected to
increase during 2010-11 to 1.28 lakh tonnes
compared to 0.76 lakh tonnes the previous year. STRATEGY
However, concerns of a drop in yield persists on Overall trend of Chana is consolidated and
account of the floods in Australia which has reduced
one should go for buying at lower levels
the Chana (chickpea) yield there, lowering the
output estimates from the region to 4.15 lakh tones strategy in it. For the coming week if
in 2010-11, from 4.45 lakh tonnes in 2009-10. In Chana sustains above 2775 level we can
the coming week, we expect Chana prices to decline see it at 2825 and below 2585 we can
further by Rs. 80-90 per qtl on sufficient supplies expect the level of 2555.
owing to the commencement of fresh arrivals
coupled with arrival of imported Chana at Mumbai
port. In the short to medium term, weather would
be an important factor to be watched for as actual
production would mainly depend on the weather
conditions during the crop development period
(February). We expect March contract to trade in the
range of Rs. 2600 – 2800 per qtl levels in the
medium term.

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 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report

Weekly
Exch- Expiry Commodity Previous Qty. Open
Symbol Price Unit Open High Low Close Net TurnOver
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest *
(Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 16457 16500 16700 15601 16090 80265 -367 14040 115,210.26

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 25053 25040 25380 23371 23540 60364 -1513 9607 133,279.66
TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-APR-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 9330 9346 10320 9346 9720 21180 390 5970 19,195.88
GARSEDJDR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 2904 2896 2952 2712 2918 1732190 14 181830 422,188.33
GARGUMJDR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 8303 8280 8500 7701 8326 145575 23 18120 107,258.28

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2734 2727 2592 2621 2618 579250 -116 88780 143,086.27
SYBEANIDR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Soybean RS/QUINTAL 2526.5 2530 2535 2424 2463.5 678170 -63 198660 156,368.19

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 664.55 663 666.5 637.85 638.8 761860 -25.75 85870 455,463.06

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-APR-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/20KGS 3049 3050 3055 2912 2917 401120 -132 87100 110,496.45

COCUDAKL NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1286 1280 1304 1253 1279 469600 -7 94780 53,401.30
GURCHMUZR NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Gur RS/40KGS 882.5 884 895 871 887 24650 4.5 11420 6,527.56
POTATO NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Potato RS/QUINTAL 664.8 669 706.3 669 684.8 138720 20 22980 7,758.42

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-APR-11 Kapas RS./20KG 1243.1 1235 1262 1164 1201.8 45740 -41.3 4119 102,205.46
WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 18-MAR-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1302.8 1303.2 1318.8 1290.8 1310 8920 7.2 8940 1,054.72
MENTHA OIL MCX 28-FEB-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1066.6 1075 1163 1075 1092.9 19345 26.3 2300 73961.38
CARDAMOM MCX 15- MAR -11 Cardamom RS/KG 1351 1348 1351 1211 1216.8 9849 -134.2 1590 14569.24

* Turnover Till Friday

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 16090 -2.23

NCDEX PEPPER 23540 -6.04
NCDEX TURMERIC 9720 4.18
NCDEX GUARSEED 2918 0.48
NCDEX GUARGUM 8326 0.28
NCDEX CHANA 2618 -4.24
NCDEX SOYBEAN 2463.5 -2.49
NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 638.8 -3.87
NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2917 -4.33
NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1279 -0.54
NCDEX GUR 887 0.51
NCDEX POTATO 684.8 3.01
NCDEX KAPAS 1201.8 -3.32
NCDEX WHEAT 1310 0.55
NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1092.9 2.47
NCDEX CARDAMOM 1216.8 -9.93

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 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report

Weekly Gainers Weekly Losers

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
TURMERIC 20-APR-11 9720 4.18 CARDAMOM 15- MAR -11 1216.8 -9.93
POTATO 18-MAR-11 684.8 3.01 PEPPER 18-MAR-11 23540 -6.04
MENTHA OIL 28-FEB-11 1092.9 2.47 CHANA 18-MAR-11 2618 -4.24

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
Jeera (Mar) 18328.33 17229.33 16659.67 16130.33 15560.67 15031.33 13932.33
Pepper (Mar) 28115.00 26106.00 24823.00 24097.00 22814.00 22088.00 20079.00
Turmeric (Apr) 11743.33 10769.33 10244.67 9795.33 9270.67 8821.33 7847.33
Guarseed (Mar) 3340.67 3100.67 3009.33 2860.67 2769.33 2620.67 2380.67
Guarsgum (Mar) 9773.67 8974.67 8650.33 8175.67 7851.33 7376.67 6577.67
Chana (Mar) 2915.67 2780.67 2699.33 2645.67 2564.33 2510.67 2375.67
Soybean (Mar) 2696.17 2585.17 2524.33 2474.17 2413.33 2363.17 2252.17
Refined Soya Oil (Mar) 705.02 676.37 657.58 647.72 628.93 619.07 590.42
Mustard (Apr) 3247.33 3104.33 3010.67 2961.33 2867.67 2818.33 2675.33
Cottonseed Oil Cake (Mar) 1380.67 1329.67 1304.33 1278.67 1253.33 1227.67 1176.67
Gur (Mar) 932.33 908.33 897.67 884.33 873.67 860.33 836.33
Potato (Mar) 761.30 724.00 704.40 686.70 667.10 649.40 612.10
Kapas (Apr) 1405.27 1307.27 1254.53 1209.27 1156.53 1111.27 1013.27
Mentha Oil (Feb) 1286.30 1198.30 1145.60 1110.30 1057.60 1022.30 934.30
Cardamom (Mar) 1539.60 1399.60 1308.20 1259.60 1168.20 1119.60 979.60

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