Elite Ideology in China

1989 to Present

Rough Working Draft

David Comp
 Elite Ideology in China 2

Introduction

On February 27, 2007 the Shanghai Stock Exchange dropped 9% causing a ripple

effect in financial markets across the globe including the United States which saw the New

York Stock Exchange have its largest point loss since September 11, 2001. While this 9%

drop in China and its impact on the financial markets of the world was short lived it provides

striking evidence that China is a major and growing economic giant of the world. How China

rose to become such an economic giant at a time when financial markets around the globe are

struggling or growing at much smaller paces is quite remarkable. This paper, however, is not

an analysis of how China achieved her current level of economic strength and success nor is it

a study on the impact of the Shanghai Index on financial markets in other countries. This

paper is also not a report on China’s long history. Rather, this paper will attempt to chart the

rise of China, from 1989 to present, as a great power according to the extent that the ruling

elites in other countries are adopting China’s ideology. This approach to studying the rise of

China as a great power is inspired by the work of Harold D. Lasswell (1934). After a brief

review of China’s history a review of the relevant literature will be conducted in an effort to

learn how the classical factors related to the rise and decline of great powers describe China’s

meteoric rise to power. In addition to identifying and describing the classical factors related

to China’s rise to power I will also attempt to identify other countries where the elites are

adopting the ideology of China’s elite.

History

China has one of the oldest recorded histories of all civilizations dating back more

than 3,000 years. For the purposes of this paper, I will not provide an overview of the various
 Elite Ideology in China 3

dynasties through the centuries but rather will begin this very brief history of China beginning

with the mid-nineteenth century. The two Opium Wars between China and Great Britain, as

well as with other Western countries such as France during the second Opium War, of the

mid- to late- 1800’s were due in large part to the trade imbalance between China and Great

Britain and was only somewhat related to the British importation of opium into China during

this time period. According to Roberts (1999), “the opium was the occasion rather than the

sole cause of the war which arose essentially from a conflict between Eastern and Western

cultures” (168). The Chinese defeat during the Opium Wars and the subsequent signing of

another unequal treaty after the Boxer Rebellion left China humiliated. (Wang 2002, 10)

The Chinese Nationalist Revolution dates from approximately 1911 to 1937. On

October 10, 1911, revolutionary leader Dr. Sun Yatsen, based out of Japan and Vietnam, lead

efforts to end the Chinese imperial dynastic system of rule. (Wang, 2002, 10) A few years

later Yuan Shihkai assumed power and became the first president of China but after his death

in 1916 the Chinese nation fell into ruins. Dr. Sun worked hard to bring China out of this

despair and the humiliation it felt after the two Opium Wars and the Boxer Rebellion, went on

to form the Nationalist Party (the Nationalists) in 1922 which, according to Wang (2002) was

the “Chinese counterpart of the Soviet Union’s Communist Party.” (12) The Chinese

Communist Party, on the other hand, was officially formed in 1921 by young students

attending Beijing National University including Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. (Roberts

1999, 222; Wang 2002, 15) The Chinese Nationalist Revolution from 1927 to 1937, also

known as the Nanjing Decade, was China’s attempt to become a modern nation-state.

(Roberts 1999, 228). The Nanjing Decade saw the Nationalist Party, lead by Chaiang

Kaishek, and the Chinese Communist Party engaged in a civil war and in 1937 both the
 Elite Ideology in China 4

Chinese Communist Party and the Nationalist Party signed an agreement to end hostilities and

work towards integration. Ironically, both the Chinese Communist Party and the Nationalist

Party joined together in a united front to fight the Japanese after they attacked China.

Following the Japanese surrender to the Allies in 1945, signaling the end of the Second World

War, the Chinese Communist Party and the Nationalist Party renewed hostilities and by 1949,

Chaiang Kaishek and the Nationalist Party fled to the island of Taiwan and the Chinese

Communist Party established the new People’s Republic of China on the mainland. (Wang

2002, 19).

China’s influence in the world continued to grow throughout the 1950’s, 1960’s and

1970’s under the leadership of Mao Zedong. However, during Mao Zedong’s tenure he

launched the great Cultural Revolution which affected every aspect of Chinese society

including economic stagnation. Upon Mao Zedong’s death in 1976, Chinese Communist

Party member Deng Xiaoping became leader of the People’s Republic of China. In 1978,

Deng Xiaoping opened China’s society to the outside world thus unleashing China’s full

potential. Since 1978, China has established itself as a rising great power in the world as

evidenced by remarkable economic growth and development as well as upgrading her military

spending and capabilities. While Deng Xiaoping engineered China’s significant economic

growth, which is more of a capitalistic approach, it still remained a communist country. The

world was reminded of this fact during the military crackdown of the student-lead, pro-

democracy protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Following Deng Xiaoping’s resignation in

1992, Jiang Zemin assumed control of the People’s Republic of China through 2003. During

Jiang Zemin’s tenure as leader of the People’s Republic of China, China continued to

experience substantial economic growth and eventually joined the World Trade Organization.
 Elite Ideology in China 5

China’s economic progress continued to skyrocket and her influence in the world continues to

rise through the leadership of Hu Jintao who became only the fourth leader of the People’s

Republic of China in 2003.

Literature Review of Classic Factors of Rise/Decline

The rise of China as a great power has been studied and analyzed in the academic (and

non-academic) literature for decades. This review of the literature will focus on the classic

factors related to the rise and decline of great powers and, in this case, the rise of China since

1989. The classical factors attributed to the rise and decline of great powers are economic

factors and political-military factors.

Economic Factors

As I eluded to earlier when describing the brief and recent history of China, 1978

marked the year that Deng Xiaoping opened China’s society to the outside world thus paving

the way for China’s rapid economic growth and incorporation into the global marketplace.

According to Vogel (2004) “Deng Xiaoping set economic development as the top priority,

and he acknowledged that international peace was necessary to achieve this objective. (50)

This is why China is very interested in establishing economic ties with its border and regional

neighbors such as Russia, India, Japan, Korea, and extending down into Southeast Asia as this

approach is preferable to military expansion against them. (Rosecrance 2006, 35) Cable and

Ferdinand further describe this position and state “the nature of current Chinese development

has involved building up strong economic linkages with its neighbors through trade and

investment flows – with Hong Kong and Taiwan especially, and increasingly with Russia,
 Elite Ideology in China 6

Vietnam and South Korea – which would make military confrontation all the more costly.”

(259)

In 1950, China’s foreign trade was a meager $1.14 billion. (Chang 1995, 956).

According to Cable and Ferdinand (1994) “the most tangible economic manifestation of

China’s ‘open door’ policy is its trade performance. Its trade turnover grew from $15 billion

in 1977 to $165 billion in 1992.” (245) Avery Goldstein (1997-1998) provides additional

data which shows a more complete picture of China’s trade volume when combined with the

data from Cable and Ferdinand (1994). Goldstein states that “over the same time period [the

1980’s to the mid-1990’s], China’s trade volume ballooned from $38.2 billion to more than

$250 billion.” (41). During the first ten months of 2006, according to the Chinese

Government (2006), China’s foreign trade volume increased 24.1 percent “year-on-year” and

reached $1.425 trillion. The increase in China’s trade volume from $15 billion dollars in

1977 to $1.425 trillion during the first ten months of 2006 equates to an astounding 9,400%

total increase in a little less thirty years.

The present and projected growth of China’s economic growth continues to be on the

rise. Prior to the February 27, 2007 drop in the Chinese market, the Shanghai Index had

gained 12% year-to-date and, if it continues at this pace, China will see its fifth straight year

of double-digit growth. In 2006, the Chinese economy grew 10.7% and projected growth for

2007 is at 10.8% according to Goldman Sachs (Cheok, 2007). Further, the 2008 Olympics in

Beijing are bound to bring in substantial revenues from tourist and media dollars related to the

event which will likely continue the double-digit growth for a sixth year.

China’s middle class continues to rise and current estimates place the number of

Chinese middle-class citizens at 400 million and it is this population within China that will
 Elite Ideology in China 7

provide a domestic market for goods that would normally be sold to other countries.

(Rosecrance 2006, 34). Also, according to Vogel (2004), in addition to China’s rising

middle-class she has roughly 150 underemployed rural laborers which provides a “virtually

unlimited supply of future workers, low wages can continue for a long time to come. Wages

can therefore remain low and China can continue to compete in labor-intensive production.”

(46)

Another important variable in the analysis of China’s significant economic growth has

been the connection to and the recruitment of Chinese diaspora/expatriates around the globe.

According to Cable and Ferdinand (1994), “50,000 expatriates a year are being recruited and

over 100,000 Chinese work overseas on contracts and growing numbers of the Chinese elite

are educated abroad. (245) The value of such a huge network of Chinese residing and

working around the globe is also echoed by Walder (1995) who states that “the Chinese

Diaspora in South-East Asia and North America are filled with ethnic Chinese entrepreneurs

who have proved to be valuable sources of knowledge and investment and who have served as

important bridges to the world economy.” (971) Maria Chang (1995) refers to this

phenomenon as the Chinese ‘global tribe.’ She describes five major ‘global tribes’ of the

world as being the Jews, the Japanese, Asian Indians, the British and the English-speaking

progeny (which includes Americans), and the Chinese. (955) Chang further supports the

claims of Cable and Ferdinand and Walder and concludes that “China stands on the cusp of a

transformation in which the overseas Chinese ‘global tribe’ plays a pivotal role. Driven by

the traditional motives of market-governed enterprise, the overseas Chinese have fueled the

furious pace of China’s economic growth and development.” (967)

 Elite Ideology in China 8

Political-Military Factors

The perception that China is a threat owes much to the concerns that economic success

may very well translate into a strong offensive military capability. (Cable and Ferdinand

1994, 258) Since the formation of the new People’s Republic of China in 1949 the countries

leaders attempted to form military alliances and linkages with elites in other countries who

would promote worldwide revolution. (Vogel 2004, 50) In addition, China involved herself

in the affairs of a number of other countries in an effort to counter the various great powers of

the world. This is evidenced by China’s involvement in the Korean War during the 1950’s.

In the decades since the Korean War, China was involved in a number of military conflicts

such as with India in 1962, a border fight with the Soviet Union in 1969 and ten years later

with Vietnam in 1979. (Vogel 2004, 50) When Deng Xiaoping opened China’s society to the

outside world in 1978 much of the governing focus was on economic growth and

development while the military focus was primarily on domestic control and defensive

initiatives. According to Goldstein (1997-1998) “in the early 1980’s Beijing heavily

discounted the likelihood of major, potentially nuclear, war with the hostile Soviet

superpower. The new view, formally articulated by the Central Military Commission in 1985,

stressed instead the need to prepare to fight limited, local wars, for which neither the People’s

War doctrine of protracted national resistance nor China’s small nuclear arsenal would be

useful.” (43) Shortly there after, during the early 1990’s, China saw the rapid military

mobilization, technology and strength of the armies of the Western world, and in particular

the United States, and their decisive victory over Iraq during the Gulf War in 1991 which

further reinforced her need to refocus on her military size, strength and offensive capabilities.

(Goldstein 1997-1998, 43-44). In an effort to flex her muscle, China conducted military
 Elite Ideology in China 9

exercises in the Straights of Taiwan in 1995-1996. This act, of course, prompted the United

States to deploy naval vessels to the region to both monitor and to serve as a deterrent for

potential aggression towards Taiwan which China still maintains is her territory. It is unclear

what the true motives of these military exercises were but they certainly got the attention of

the United States and the rest of the world. According to the United States Department of

Defense (2006) China has conducted eleven amphibious exercises focusing on an invasion of

Taiwan and one large-scale, multi-service exercise focusing on invading Taiwan since 1999.

(3)

China has increased her military budget on an annual basis since at least 1994. China

officially disclosed that it planned to spend $35 billion in 2006 but the United States

Department of Defense Intelligence Agency in 2006 estimated that China planned to spend

between $70 and $105 billion on her military budget. (20) China also continues to make

significant advances in her military technology and hardware as well as with her military

planning and strategy. For example, China continues to enhance the capabilities of her

special operations forces and has studied the special operations forces and their capabilities of

the United States military during the 1991 Gulf War, the NATO operations in Balkans during

the late 1990’s and the current United States military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. As

China’s military grows and gains strength it will continue to challenge the United States and

other Western powers as well as regional powers such as Russia, India and Japan. What

China currently lacks are the strategic forward operating bases like the United States has in

South Korea, Japan and the Philippines to further exert her military muscle.

Understanding Rise/Decline in Terms of Ideology and Elites

 Elite Ideology in China 10

The first step in understanding the rise of China in terms of ideology and elites is to

define elites. According to the Blackwell Dictionary of Political Science (1999), “elites” is

defined as “a group or class of persons or a member of such a group or class, enjoying

superior intellectual, social, or economic status.” For the purposes of this paper I will be

focusing on the political elite of China. Zhao (2000) has identified that pragmatism has

dominated the thinking of the Chinese people since the 1980’s and that most communist

leaders, including Deng Xiaoping, and Jiang Zemin are pragmatists. (10) As a strategy to

modernize, these pragmatists have been opening commercial and cultural exchanges with all

countries and have been gaining access to the world’s most advance science and technology.

(10) Pan (2007) further explains this and states that “China is very pragmatic about this

[investing in Africa]…it’s cutting deals with governments all over the world…the Chinese

perspective is that, unlike the United States, they don't mix business with politics.”

As was previously mentioned, Deng Xiaoping believed that international peace was

necessary to achieve economic development. Rosecrance (2006) supports this position and

states that:

intensive development through economic growth is generally preferable to military

and extensive expansion. With new investments, a country can transform its position

through industrial expansion at home and sustain it through international trade.

Access to the economies of other nations is sufficient; a rising nation does not need

territorial control of them. Peaceful development can thus take the place of aggressive

expansion. Since World War II, a number of economies have adopted this principle,

including Germany, Japan, China, and other East Asian nations. They have prospered

as a result. (33)
 Elite Ideology in China 11

China, Germany and Japan all have a neo-mercantilist model in that they trade with anyone

regardless of who they are.

The literature provides very few examples of elites in other countries who have

actively adopted China’s ideology. China’s economic investment in Africa despite the human

rights abuses of many countries has produced allies and trading/economic partners for China.

For the most part, the United States and other countries of the West have ignored Africa

whereas China has found an economic opportunity on the continent. China’s interests in

Africa are predominately related to the oil industry as China has recently become the second

highest consumer of petroleum on the planet behind the United States. In addition, China is

also involved in the selling of military arms and hardware to many countries throughout

Africa. In certain ways, the elite of African countries such as the Sudan and Zimbabwe have

adopted the Chinese elite ideology of trading with anyone who will invest regardless of

political ideology and/or human rights abuses as they are both key trading partners with

China.

While the West had serious concerns with the events of Tiananmen Square of 1989

many countries in Africa were openly supportive. Taylor (1998) summarized this reaction by

the Third World and in particular African nations in three points being “self-interest of

African elites under threat from democratization projects (linked surreptitiously in their eyes

to the human rights crusade); Third World solidarity and resentment at Western ‘neo-

imperialist’ interference in the affairs of a fellow developing country’ and a pragmatic

understanding that overt criticism of Beijing could/would mean an end to Chinese

developmental aid. (447). The first point is further explained by Taylor as “a large number of

African heads of state assumed and maintained office with little reference to popular will.
 Elite Ideology in China 12

Any mass mobilization of an important segment of the population against an entrenched elite

threatened to set a precedent that Africans could well draw from.” (448)

In addition to several African countries who have aligned themselves with and

supported China, Burma or Myanmar is another country that deserves some attention.

Seekins (1997) describes China and Burma as having compatible worldviews in that the elite

regimes “are pragmatic rather than ideological in nature.” (531) Seekins continues and states

that “both regimes place a higher estimation on economic than political development.” (533)

Burma also spends a significant amount of her national budget on the military.

Thawnghmung (2003) indicates that the Burmese military budget comprises 40 percent of the

national budget. (40).

Conclusion

Authoritarian rule mixed with an open society, economic development model has

propelled China to great power status in a relatively short amount of time, less than thirty

years time. This ideological model has produced rapid economic growth which is envied by

many countries of the world. However, in many instances, elites in many African countries

and Burma where there are relationships with the elites in China are not necessarily adopting

the ideology of China’s elites but rather are receiving economic development and military aid

and supporting Beijing’s position against the Western powers and in particular the United

States. Payne and Veney (1998) sum it up best in that “China and many developing countries

have converging interests.” (868) Based on both the classic factors related to the rise and

decline of great powers and the extent to which the elites of other nations are adopting the
 Elite Ideology in China 13

ideology of China’s elites, I believe that China is a rising power and will continue to rise in

the years to come.

References

Bealey, Frank. 1999. The Blackwell Dictionary of Political Science.

http://www.netlibrary.com.proxy.uchicago.edu/Reader/

Cable, Vincent., and Ferdinand, Peter. 1994. “China as an Economic Giant: Threat or

Opportunity?” International Affairs 70: 243-261.

Chang, Maria Hsia. 1995. “Greater China and the Chinese ‘Global Tribe.’” Asian Survey

35: 955-967.

Cheok, Dora. 2007. “A China Affair” CNBC.com,

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17806732/for/cnbc (March 30, 2007).

Chinese Government. (2006). “China’s Foreign Trade Volume Hits New High.”

http://english.gov.cn/2006-11/13/content_441227.htm (November 13, 2006).

Goldstein, Avery. 1997-1998. “Great Expectations: Interpreting China’s Arrival.”

International Security 22: 36-73.

Lasswell, Harold D. 1934. World Politics and Personal Insecurity. New York: The Free

Press.

Pan, Esther. 2007. “China, Africa, and Oil” Council on Foreign Relations.

http://www.cfr.org/publication/9557/china_africa_and_oil.html#6 (January 26, 2007).

Payne, Richard J. and Veney, Cassandra R. 1998. “China’s Post-Cold War African Policy”

Asian Survey 38: 867-879.

Roberts, J.A.G. 1999. A History of China. London: MacMillan Press Ltd.

 Elite Ideology in China 14

Seekins, Donald M. 1997. “Burma-China Relations: Playing with Fire” Asian Survey 37:

525-539.

Taylor, Ian. 1998. “China’s Foreign Policy towards Africa in the 1990s” The Journal of

Modern African Studies 36: 443-460.

Thawnghmung, Ardeth Maung. 2003. “Burma: A Gentler Authoritarianism?” Foreign

Policy 139: 39-40.

United States Department of Defense. 2006. “Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of

the People’s Republic of China 2006.

http://www.dod.mil/pubs/pdfs/China%20Report%202006.pdf

Vogel, Ezra F. 2004. The Rise of China and the Changing Face of East Asia.” Asia-Pacific

Review 11: 46-57.

Walder, Andrew G. 1995. “China’s Transitional Economy: Interpreting Its Significance.”

The China Quarterly 144: 963-979.

Wang, James C.F. 2002. Contemporary Chinese Politics: An Introduction. Upper Saddle

River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall.

Zhao, Suisheng. 2000. “Chinese Nationalism and Its International Orientations.” Political

Science Quarterly 115: 1-33.