WK,(((3(6$VLD3DFLILF3RZHUDQG(QHUJ\(QJLQHHULQJ&RQIHUHQFH$33((&
A Regression-analysis-based TCU Failure Warning
Method in Electromagnetic Environment
Jieqing Deng
State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co., State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,
Ltd
Nanjing, China
Yang Xu
Electric Power Research Institute State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,
State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,
Ltd
Nanjing, China
Abstract—In order to ensure that the Thyristor Control Unit
(TCU) of the HVDC converter valve works normally in the
electromagnetic environment, this paper analyzes the sources of
various electromagnetic disturbances in the valve hall of the
converter valve. Then the TCU is placed in different
electromagnetic environments for simulation to observe the
characteristics of its key components. Based on them, a
regression-analysis-based TCU failure warning method in
electromagnetic environment is proposed, which could deduce
the trend of failure occurrence by constructing abnormal
information vectors. This method considers the mode of failure
and the time of early warning, and issue an early warning at an
appropriate time. With changes in the electromagnetic
environment, the failure mode library will be continuously
expanded. The calculation shows that the method in this paper
can well pre-warn the failure of TCUs in the electromagnetic
environment, and its prediction accuracy is as high as 86%,
which is superior to the traditional method.
Keywords—TCU; Electromagnetic Disturbance; Regression
Analysis; Threshold
I. INTRODUCTION
High-voltage direct current (HVDC) is an important
technology to solve the problem of high-voltage, large-
capacity, long-distance transmission and grid interconnection
in the world. Compared with traditional converter stations,
there are more primary and secondary equipment in HVDC
converter stations. Many sources of electromagnetic
disturbance exist in the HVDC converter station, and the
electromagnetic environment is much worse. These factors
seriously affect the normal operation of valve control systems,
and may even cause failure of converter valves [1-4].
The valve control system is mainly composed of four parts:
Thyristor Control Unit (TCU), Valve Control Unit (VCU),
Thyristor Monitoring Unit (THM), and optical fiber
transmission equipment. Among them, the TCU is fixed on
the radiator at the cathode side of the thyristor, responsible for
triggering and monitoring the thyristor. Due to many sources
of electromagnetic disturbance inside the valve tower, and the
TCU is a direct device that triggers the thyristor, so TCUs
failure often occurs, leading to abnormal operation of the
converter valve and even failure of the entire power
conversion system [5-6].
Research supported by the Science and Technology Project of
Research on Aging Evaluation and Integrated Detection Technology of
UHVDC Transmission Converter Valve and Valve Control Equipment.
(grant number: J2019010)
XXX-X-XXXX-XXXX-X/XX/$XX.00 ©20XX IEEE
k,(((
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Jiangang Xu Xuan Li *
School of Electrical Engineering
Ltd Southeast University
Nanjing, China Nanjing, China
*
220192750@seu.edu.cn
Tianxi Xie
Ltd
Nanjing, China
After the thyristor level is put into operation, the operating
condition of TCUs is severe due to the electromagnetic
disturbance in the valve hall. Component damage caused by
overcurrent and overvoltage often occurs on TCUs, which
could result in abnormal phenomena such as IP loss, IP
oscillation, and gate pulse loss.
Sometimes the TCU may have a latent failure, in which
case the internal devices of the TCU have failed but it still
remains operational, and the problem can only be exposed
when external disturbances occur [7-8]. In this regard, the
traditional detection method is no longer applicable, and a
reliable early warning method is urgently needed to let the
system issue early warning before the TCU fails, so that
maintenance can be completed in sufficient time.
Based on it, we analyze the source of electromagnetic
disturbance in the valve hall of the converter valve. Next, the
circuit board is simulated under the effect of electromagnetic
disturbance to observe the changing characteristics of key
components in the electromagnetic environment. According
to it, a regression-analysis-based TCU failure warning method
in electromagnetic environment is proposed. This method
divides the failure of TCUs into several modes, and
continuously expands new unknown modes into them, so that
the system can issue danger warning when the TCU is about
to fail. The calculation shows that this method predicts the
failure of TCUs in the electromagnetic environment well,
which can maintain good prediction accuracy even when the
failure mode is poor or the new mode is unknown. This
method provides support for the maintenance of the thyristor
level.
II. SOURCES OF ELECTROMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE
The alternating electromagnetic field generated by the
electromagnetic disturbance source can be divided into two
parts: radiation field and induction field. The energy of the
radiation field is separated from the radiator and emitted
outward in the form of electromagnetic waves, while the
energy of the induction field flows back and forth between the
radiation source and the radiation source, which is not emitted
outward [9-11].
For easy differentiation, the field is generally divided into
the far field (radiation field) and the near field (induction field)
according to the relationship between the field source
wavelength λ and the distance r. The area of r >> λ is called
 WK,(((3(6$VLD3DFLILF3RZHUDQG(QHUJ\(QJLQHHULQJ&RQIHUHQFH$33((&

the far field, and the area of r << λ is the near field. The other B Magnetic field distribution diagram
differences between them are shown in Table 1. Fig. 1. Distribution of electric field strength and magnetic field strength
of TCU at 50MHz
TABLE I. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN FAR FIELD AND NEAR
FIELD According to the distribution diagram of electric field
strength and magnetic field strength in Figure 1, it can be
Relationship found that the electric field strength is large at the left and right
Rate between
Name
Electromagnetic
of
Degree of
Electric and ends of the board, at the line, and at some chips, while the
Field Intensity Irregularity magnetic field strength is large at the power supply line and
Decay Magnetic
Fields some flip-flop circuits, so they are more susceptible to
Far
Small Low Small Vertical electromagnetic disturbance. Set up voltage monitors at six
Field places, including voltage comparator U2, double JK flip-flop
Near No clear
Big Fast Big U7, monostable trigger U13, transistor T44, transistor D60
Field relationship
and power supply port, to monitor the induced voltage
Far-field disturbance mainly comes from the operation of
changes. Current monitors are set up on the power supply line
some primary equipment and wireless equipment near the
and the flip-flop circuit to monitor the changes in the induced
converter station [12-14], such as communication base
current. The positions of the above eight monitors correspond
stations and broadcasting stations. The amplitude of this
to 1-8 in Figure. 2 in sequence.
electromagnetic disturbance is relatively small, but the
propagation distance is long, the speed is fast, and the
frequency is high, which may affect the operation of the TCU.
Near-field disturbance mainly comes from the turn-on or
turn-off of nearby thyristors and the operation of some
primary equipment. Compared with far-field disturbance,
near-field disturbance has lower frequency, faster attenuation,
larger amplitude, and more uneven spatial distribution.
Generally speaking, the impact of near-field disturbance on
TCU is more severe. Fig. 2. Location of the eight monitors

The electromagnetic disturbance derives from many far- The simulated time-domain waveforms of induced voltage
field and near-field sources inside and outside the valve hall. and induced current are shown in Figure 3.
In order to analyze the effect of electromagnetic disturbances
in the actual environment conveniently, it is necessary to study
the characteristics of a TCU under a single far-field
disturbance source and a single near-field disturbance source.

III. THE EFFECT ON TCUS UNDER DIFFERENT

ELECTROMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES
A. Far-field disturbance
The TCU circuit board is imported into CST MWS, and
the simulation frequency is set to 0-2GHz [15], where an
electric field monitor and a magnetic field monitor are set up
at 50MHz. In addition, the simulation background is set to
normal air, and the simulation boundary condition is set to
open (add space). The TCU is placed on the XOY plane and
subjected to far-field disturbance by plane waves. Its
propagation direction is (0,0, -1) and the direction of the
electric field is (1,0,0). The excitation of the plane wave is set
to a Gaussian signal with an amplitude of 1.
A Electric field distribution diagram
A Induced Voltage B Induced Current
Fig. 3. Time-domain waveforms under far-field disturbance
It can be seen from the time-domain waveform that under
the excitation of unit plane waves, the induced voltage and
induced current exhibit the characteristics of decay oscillation.
The maximum absolute value of the induced voltage at the
power supply port exceeds 0.0087V, and the maximum
absolute value of the induced current at the power supply line
also exceeds the normal trigger circuit. When an external
power supply supplies power to the TCU, large disturbances
are likely to occur at the power port and power supply line.
Similarly, the induced voltage at the three chip pins also
fluctuates, and the maximum induced voltage at the U2 pin
reaches more than 0.0036V. Since the working voltage of the
chip has a prescribed range, when the electromagnetic field
strength increases, the chip is easily affected by the violent
influence of electromagnetic disturbances so that the voltage
fluctuation exceeds the threshold, which may easily cause
failure.
B. Near-field disturbance
Due to the complexity of the near field, it is extremely
difficult to accurately simulate the near field disturbance.
Most of the current research literature simplifies the sources
of disturbances, for example, a pair of dipole antennas can be

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 WK,(((3(6$VLD3DFLILF3RZHUDQG(QHUJ\(QJLQHHULQJ&RQIHUHQFH$33((&
used equivalently [16-17]. The pair of dipole antennas used in
this section is composed of two PEC cylinders with a gap of 2
mm in the middle. By adding a port in the gap, a Gaussian
pulse with an amplitude of 1 is used to simulate an antenna
radiating electromagnetic fields outward.
Set the same monitor on the board as in the far-field
simulation, and the resulting time-domain waveform is shown
in Figure 4.
From the time-domain waveform diagram, the maximum
absolute value of induced voltage and induced current caused
by near-field disturbance is far greater than far-field
disturbance, and the largest transistor induced voltage reaches
0.188V. Another difference from the far-field result is that
when the TCU is disturbed by the near field, the induced
voltage and induced current decay quickly and the number of
oscillation is very small, which is also consistent with the
characteristics of rapid attenuation in the near field.
According to the simulation of the far field and the near
field, the following conclusions can be drawn: whether it is
near field disturbance or far field disturbance, the induced
voltage and current of the device on the TCU will oscillate.
But for different disturbances, the decay rate is different.
When the TCU is working normally, each device has a normal
working range. Once its amplitude exceeds its normal
working range, it can be considered that the TCU is affected
by strong electromagnetic disturbance and may be invalid.
Therefore, the voltage or current of the key components of the
TCU is monitored in real time, and the obtained information
is processed by a method based on regression analysis to
achieve the goal of early warning of TCU failure status.
A Induced Voltage B Induced Current
Fig. 4. Time-domain waveforms under near-field disturbance
IV. TCU FAILURE WARNING METHOD BASED ON
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
A. Failure detector
The on-line monitoring technology of the printed circuit
board can collect voltage and current information of the key
components of TCUs in real time, which reflects working
condition of the printed circuit board. Thus, in the
electromagnetic environment, the situation and failure trend
of the TCU can be judged.
The voltage or current of the selected parts is monitored
throughout the system. When the voltage or current amplitude
of an element exceeds its normal operating range, the element
is identified as having an exception, and the number of new
exceptions added during that time is recorded in the exception
log.
The exception information of the system at this time can
be obtained from the historical exception log, noted by a one-
dimensional vector sn.
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sn [v1n , vn2 , Ă, vnj , Ă, vnJ ] (1)
where, sn is the vector corresponding to the nth exception
information, characterizing the current state of the TCU at that
moment.
Observing that the jth variable of sn, vnj is the sum of gkj,
which is the new exception count of the variable in each error
log. sn can be written as
n n n n
sn [¦ g 1k , ¦ g k2 ,Ă, ¦ g kj , Ă, ¦ g kJ ] (2)
k 1 k 1 k 1 k 1
The probability of TCU failure in this state, i.e. the failure
probability, can be calculated from the exception information,
taking value in [0,1]. 0 means that the TCU is running
normally in this state, while 1 means that the TCU has failed.
However, in the actual operation process, the TCU is
subject to complex sources of electromagnetic disturbance
and has a variety of forms, which makes the process of failure
not unique. For example, some failures are caused by
excessive voltage fluctuations on the pin of the chip, while
others are caused by breakdown due to excessive reverse
voltage of the triode.
Although the same failure result will be produced, the
exception information is different due to the different failure
processes. Therefore, the concept of failure mode is
introduced to treat the failure caused by different components
exceptions as different failure modes. The failure probability
is then divided into several failure mode probabilities, which
is defined as follows:
e( n )
hnm * class(m) (3)
e( N )
where, e(n) is the number of exceptions when the nth
exception information is recorded, e(N) denotes the total
number of exceptions when the TCU fails, m denotes the
failure mode, and class(m) is 1 or 0, indicating that the failure
belongs to failure mode m or not respectively. ݄௡௠ is the
eventuality of failure mode m. The closer ݄௡௠ is to 1, the closer
the TCU is to the time of failure.
Subsequently, a failure detector is constructed, and
corresponding failure modes are distinguished based on real-
time abnormal information during the operation of TCUs.
Assume that TCU is in the running state, the exception
logs {p1, p2, Ă , pn} are recorded at time {t1, t2, Ă , tn}
respectively, and stored in the database which containing all
the information about each TCU exception and the failure
modes identified by the system automatically. These data are
then used for regression analysis, including the following
steps:
Step 1: Extract known failure mode {m1, m2, Ă, mM},
where each failure mode occurs at least once in the historical
runs.
Step 2: Extract the information from exception logs,
construct the exception information vector sn, and the failure
mode probability can be calculated.
Step 3: For known failure modes, a ሺ‫ ܬ‬൅ ͳሻ ൈ ܰmatrix X
and failure mode probability column vector Ym are formed.
Where J is the number of variables in each exception
information vector, and N is the number of exception
information vectors.
 WK,(((3(6$VLD3DFLILF3RZHUDQG(QHUJ\(QJLQHHULQJ&RQIHUHQFH$33((&

§1 v11 v12 v1j v2J · ­hnm t D m

¨ ¸
¨1 v12 v22 v2j v2J ¸
¨ ¸
X ¨ ¸ (4)
¨1 v1n vn2 vnj vnJ ¸
¨ ¸
¨ ¸
¨1 v1N vN2 vNj vNJ ¸¹
© and the update of the failure mode library, the threshold of
T each failure mode is continuously adjusted.
Ym ª¬ h1m h2m hnm hNm º¼
Step 4: Construct failure mode probability detector Hm of
failure mode m by ordinary least square.
am ( X T X ) 1 X T Ym
m m
H (X ) Xa (7)
According to Equation (6) and Equation (7), for any real-
time abnormal information vector sn, the detector Hm can be
used to predict the probability of failure mode m. Let sn
correspond to one-dimensional vector xn, the probability of
failure mode detected by the failure detector is as follows:
xn [1, v1n , vn2 , Ă, vnj , Ă, vnJ ]
m warning is issued. After this unknown failure mode occurs, the
h n xn a m
Noting the fact that the smaller the failure probability is,
the safer the TCU is, it is necessary to ensure that ݄෠௡௠ is less
than or equal to the threshold value α‫[א‬0,1]. Otherwise, it
indicates that the system is in a dangerous phase.
B. Early warning time
Under normal circumstances, it can be determined
whether the system should issue an early warning by judging
whether the failure probability ݄௡௠ exceeds the threshold.
However, it takes a certain amount of time for the system to
respond and the staff to maintain. Once they exceed the TCU's
time to failure, it is considered that this warning is invalid,
because it did not successfully avoid failure and wasted
system resource. Therefore, the warning time also needs to be
taken into account. Suppose the time from recording the nth
abnormal information to the failure of the TCU is ‫ݐ‬௥ , the time
when the detector issues an early warning and the system
௧೛ ା௧೜
responds is ‫ݐ‬௣ , and the maintenance time is ‫ݐ‬௤ . If ൑ ͳ, it
௧ೝ
can be considered that an effective warning is issued at this
time, and the system can respond and maintain immediately to
௧೛ ା௧೜
avoid failure. On the contrary, if ൐ ͳ, even though the
௧ೝ
early warning occurs at this time, the system cannot make
timely processing, which requires manual maintenance. This
kind of early warning is invalid. In view of the situation of
invalid early warning, it is necessary to appropriately reduce
the threshold of the probability of failure mode, so that the
system can complete the response and maintenance work in
sufficient time.
C. Failure prediction and early warning
For the known failure mode m, after the system calculates
Equation (8) and Equation (9) for the real-time exception
information vector, if the Equation (10) is satisfied, effective
warning can be performed:
° m m
® t p  tq (10)
° m d1
¯ tr
In the initial stage, all thresholds of failure mode
probability are set to 0.6. If α is bigger than 0.6 and the
warning time meets the requirements, an effective warning
will be issued. Then with the emergence of invalid warnings
(5)
For unknown failure modes, there is no corresponding
exception information in the failure mode library, and the
above regression model is no longer applicable. At this time,
the traditional method of probability and statistics is applied
(6)
to judge.
failure( sn )
hn 1d n d N (11)
failure( sn )  success( sn )
Where, failure(sn) is the warning number of sn in all known
modes, and success(sn) is the normal number of sn in all known
modes. According to whether the unknown failure mode
(8) probability ݄௡ exceeds the threshold β‫[א‬0,1], it can be judged
whether the system fails. If the threshold is exceeded, a failure
(9)
exception information vector, failure mode probability, and
various time parameters are recorded and added to the failure
mode library, which is then used for the next failure detection.
V. EXAMPLE ANALYSIS
Taking the valve control system of a converter station in
Jiangsu Province as an example, the chips U2, U7, U13 on the
TCU circuit board, the transistors T44, D60 and the power
port are selected to monitor their voltage, while the power
supply line and the flip-flop circuit are selected to monitor
their current. Then run the monitoring system on the TCU to
capture exception logs during the running time period. These
exception logs are divided into two parts. The first part covers
most of the early data, which is used to establish the prediction
model and obtain the detector of the failure model. The second
part is a small part of the recent data, which is used to test the
pros and cons of the model and observe the prediction
accuracy. During this period, the parameters are continuously
adjusted and the model library is expanded to make the model
reach the best possible state.
Figure 5 is a graph showing the change trend of the
average prediction accuracy after the model runs for 50 days.
It can be seen that with the increase of time, the failure mode
database is constantly expanding, and the average prediction
accuracy is also increasing, which can reach 86.60% after 40
days.
Figure 6 is a comparison chart of the prediction accuracy
of the two methods after the model runs for 50 days. The
method in this paper corresponds to the solid line, and the
traditional method [18] corresponds to the dashed line. On the
whole, the prediction accuracy of both models is on the rise.
But in contrast, the prediction accuracy of the method in this
paper is higher. At the beginning, the failure mode library used
by the two methods is the same, so the prediction accuracy is
relatively close. However, with the passage of time and
changes in the electromagnetic environment, new failure
modes of TCUs have emerged, which is difficult to identify

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 WK,(((3(6$VLD3DFLILF3RZHUDQG(QHUJ\(QJLQHHULQJ&RQIHUHQFH$33((&
with traditional methods. The method in this paper can add a
new type of failure modes to the library, which allows the
TCU to be accurately identified when a similar failure occurs
next time, so the prediction accuracy in the middle and later
stages is higher than the traditional method.
Fig. 5. Average prediction accuracy based on regression analysis
Fig. 6. Comparison of prediction accuracy between two methods
VI. CONCLUSION
Based on simulation analysis, this paper proposes a
regression-analysis-based TCUs failure warning method in
electromagnetic environment, which comprehensively
considers the failure type and warning time.
The calculation shows that the prediction accuracy of the
method in this paper can reach more than 86% after 40 days
of operation, which surpasses the traditional method.
Therefore, it can well pre-warn the failure of TCU in the
electromagnetic environment, and has practical engineering
application value.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This research is supported by the Science and Technology
Project of Research on Aging Evaluation and Integrated
Detection Technology of UHVDC Transmission Converter
Valve and Valve Control Equipment. (grant number:
J2019010)
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