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The Black Swan Theory (in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's version) concerns high-impact, hard-to-
predict, and rare events beyond the realm of normal expectations. Unlike the philosophical
"black swan problem", the "Black Swan Theory" (capitalized) refers only to events of large
magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. "Black Swan" events are
considered extreme outliers. Note that in his writings Taleb never uses the phrase "Black
Swan Theory"; instead, he refers to "Black Swan Events" (capitalized).
Background
The theory was described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan. Taleb
regards almost all major scientific discoveries, historical events, and artistic
accomplishments as "black swans"—undirected and unpredicted. He gives the rise of the
Internet, the personal computer, World War I, and the September 11, 2001 attacks as
examples of Black Swan events.
The term Black Swan comes from the 17th century European assumption that
'All swans are white'. In that context, a black swan was a symbol for something that was
impossible or could not exist. In the 18th Century, the discovery of black swans in Western
Australia metamorphosed the term to connote that a perceived impossibility may actually
come to pass. Taleb notes that John Stuart Mill first used the Black Swan narrative to
discuss falsification.