Quantity

Fossil Fuel Non

Coal MFO DO MB DO RB Black Liquor
Month
Ton/month ton/month ton/month ton/month TDS/month

Jan-13 150,992 107.5 476.4 1,036.8 352,582

Feb-13 147,099 135.0 230.9 224.8 368,652
Mar-13 167,744 36.9 145.0 408.8 379,367
Apr-13 169,326 149.7 17.8 306.9 375,899
May-13 168,522 42.6 192.5 344.6 372,909
Jun-13 173,908 49.6 328.7 83.8 384,166
Jul-13 185,898 36.5 180.8 150.7 415,086
Aug-13 173,552 50.4 167.3 770.2 399,864
Sep-13 174,156 39.0 448.5 279.7 392,520
Oct-13 173,191 57.7 93.5 322.3 377,922
Nov-13 188,697 94.5 206.2 299.7 406,949
Dec-13 191,312 87.7 339.0 244.6 399,231
2,064,397 887.2 2,826.7 4,472.9
201,911 Jan-14 201,421 115.5 187.2 187.1 446,230
170,694 Feb-14 169,864 101.3 211.9 516.7 389,401
225,633 Mar-14 224,779 147.6 335.5 371.7 420,474
221,494 Apr-14 220,860 229.9 228.6 175.6 398,652
223,119 May-14 222,544 57.2 374.4 143.7 363,415
227,473 Jun-14 227,042 71.9 100.3 258.2 317,410
228,664 Jul-14 228,174 39.7 127.8 322.9 437,934
228,028 Aug-14 227,189 50.7 663.0 126.0 452,744
227,409 Sep-14 226,587 259.4 302.3 259.9 399,593
223,908 Oct-14 223,031 185.8 476.8 214.3 418,274
166,184 Nov-14 165,615 125.7 58.4 385.7 408,185
119,107 Dec-14 118,448 194.6 176.3 287.7 419,412
2,455,552 1,579.3 3,242.4 3,249.6
215,787 Jan-15 214,901 256.9 486.9 142.6 408,298
191,314 Feb-15 190,470 213.9 394.0 236.3 400,404
208,851 Mar-15 207,645 290.4 619.0 296.0 428,864
192,325 Apr-15 191,419 157.8 421.6 326.3 412,113
204,522 May-15 203,783 159.6 366.2 212.6 392,973
195,630 Jun-15 194,481 185.8 261.6 701.7 326,032
200,261 Jul-15 199,337 273.5 248.3 402.8 415,838
176,348 Aug-15 175,681 313.8 222.7 130.5 409,876
178,513 Sep-15 177,536 412.2 354.1 210.1 390,928
194,756 Oct-15 193,528 393.7 628.4 205.4 412,003
194,374 Nov-15 193,506 268.8 381.6 217.7 400,892
195,836 Dec-15 195,089 206.2 301.8 238.7 412,321
2,337,376 3,132.5 4,686.1 3,320.8
Y2013 2,064,397 887 2,827 4,473 4,625,145
Y2014 2,455,552 1,579 3,242 3,250 4,871,722
Y2015 2,337,376 3,132 4,686 3,321 4,810,541
Quantity
Non Fossil Fuel Fossil Fuel
Bark Palmshell Saw Dust Fibre Tankos Coal MFO Diesel Oil
(CPO)
ton/month ton/month ton/month ton/month ton/month kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg

109,809 1,905 1,516 - 923 4,766 10,323.0 10,884.0

127,870 1,846 1,373 - 1,301 4,639 10,323.0 10,832.0
141,481 1,358 885 - 235 4,836 10,323.0 10,926.0
140,915 1,058 2,245 - - 4,761 10,323.0 10,900.0
129,142 1,955 1,624 - 1,000 4,605 10,323.0 10,926.0
153,381 1,200 2,138 - 400 4,681 10,323.0 10,897.0
162,803 920 2,398 - 100 4,579 10,323.0 10,988.0
171,977 1,085 939 - - 4,421 10,323.0 10,911.0
162,882 1,024 1,324 - - 4,687 10,323.0 10,885.0
163,239 2,000 1,821 - 200 4,618 10,323.0 10,898.0
127,395 1,640 1,467 - 100 4,681 10,323.0 10,998.0
143,666 598 1,528 - 10 4,647 10,323.0 10,952.0
4,660 10,323.0 10,916.4
158,130 500 1,683 - - 4,689 10,323.0 10,853.0
183,121 600 1,637 - 50 4,718 10,323.0 10,731.0
205,843 600 1,513 - - 4,700 10,323.0 10,799.0
155,151 500 2,225 - 50 4,702 10,323.0 10,767.0
153,419 350 2,299 - 50 4,604 10,323.0 10,880.0
153,435 200 2,369 - 50 4,810 10,323.0 10,903.0
177,058 200 2,688 - 13 4,804 10,323.0 10,809.0
195,875 600 2,802 - - 4,831 10,323.0 10,870.0
137,235 1,893 2,570 - - 4,566 10,323.0 10,801.0
116,255 1,190 2,129 - - 4,733 10,323.0 10,843.0
93,255 1,120 2,497 - - 4,640 10,323.0 10,809.0
96,644 71 2,380 - 2,400 4,677 10,323.0 10,846.0

108,512 900 2,106 - 625 4,749 10,323.0 10,935.0

112,293 400 1,979 - 1,721 4,667 10,323.0 10,873.0
118,550 800 1,883 - 4,184 4,842 10,204.0 10,948.0
110,972 763 1,785 300 5,248 4,772 10,204.0 10,931.0
110,285 1,641 1,794 405 4,719 4,739 10,204.0 10,906.0
100,999 1,096 1,102 360 5,368 4,808 10,926.0 10,302.0
148,379 641 816 100 1,627 4,772 10,964.0 10,302.0
162,661 469 1,117 1,700 1,585 4,755 10,435.0 10,949.0
 148,428 1,416 1,210 9,327 1,286 4,813 10,475.0 10,993.0
143,766 2,459 1,406 15,750 1,709 4,913 10,393.0 10,975.0
128,990 436 1,473 3,373 272 4,799 10,401.0 10,952.0
120,460 703 1,192 2,590 425 4,725 10,401.0 11,010.0
4,780
1,734,559 16,589 19,258 - 4,269 55,921 123,876 130,997
1,825,421 7,824 26,793 - 2,613 56,474 123,876 129,911
1,514,293 11,722 17,863 33,904 28,770 57,354 125,253 130,076
 Calori
el Non Fossil Fuel Fossil F
Natural Gas Black Liquor Bark Palmshell Saw Dust Fibre Tankos Coal
(CPO)
kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg kcal/kg ton/month kcal/kg GJ/month

- 3,123 2,416 3,859 2,894 - 2,136 3,012,856

- 3,123 2,346 3,925 2,894 - 2,136 2,856,969
- 3,123 1,684 3,824 2,894 - 2,136 3,396,295
- 3,123 1,684 3,809 2,894 - 2,136 3,375,155
- 3,123 2,389 3,787 2,894 - 2,136 3,249,054
- 3,123 2,389 3,933 2,894 - 2,136 3,408,246
- 3,123 2,389 3,906 2,894 - 2,136 3,563,835
- 3,123 2,389 3,773 2,894 - 2,136 3,212,339
- 3,123 2,389 3,939 2,894 - 2,136 3,417,474
- 3,123 2,389 3,838 2,894 - 2,136 3,348,509
- 3,123 2,389 3,865 2,894 - 2,136 3,698,074
- 3,123 2,389 3,851 2,894 - 2,136 3,722,089
2,270 3,859 2,894 2,136 40,260,895
- 3,049 2,389 3,824 2,894 - 2,136 3,954,184
- 3,039 2,389 3,869 2,894 - 2,136 3,355,297
- 3,113 2,389 3,994 2,894 - 2,136 4,423,078
- 3,197 2,389 3,875 2,894 - 2,136 4,347,813
- 3,164 2,688 3,929 2,894 - 2,136 4,289,660
- 3,198 2,487 4,082 2,894 - 2,136 4,572,184
- 3,307 2,487 4,000 2,894 - 2,136 4,589,240
- 3,054 2,487 4,048 2,894 - 2,136 4,595,103
- 3,124 2,487 3,821 2,894 - 2,136 4,331,543
- 3,075 2,704 3,783 2,894 - 2,136 4,419,505
- 3,063 2,704 3,933 2,894 - 1,516 3,217,276
- 3,095 2,704 3,967 2,894 - 2,144 2,319,353
48,414,236
- 3,051 1,865 4,015 2,894 - 1,929 4,272,798
- 3,053 2,422 4,198 2,894 - 2,140 3,721,648
- 3,036 2,422 4,093 2,894 - 1,942 4,209,381
- 3,137 2,422 4,028 2,894 2,644 1,914 3,824,354
- 3,120 2,422 4,070 2,894 2,644 1,930 4,043,216
- 3,110 2,422 3,949 2,894 2,644 1,822 3,914,842
- 3,033 2,422 3,822 2,894 3,475 1,934 3,982,537
- 3,069 2,730 4,140 2,894 3,753 1,986 3,497,413
- 3,125 2,360 3,741 2,894 3,363 2,097 3,577,458
- 3,017 2,422 4,215 2,894 3,054 2,097 3,980,728
- 3,051 2,422 3,824 2,894 3,272 2,097 -
- 3,026 2,184 3,926 2,894 3,272 2,097 -
2,343 39,024,377
- 37,478 27,240 46,309 34,728 - 25,632 40,260,895
- 37,478 30,302 47,126 34,728 - 25,020 48,414,236
- 36,828 28,515 48,020 34,728 28,119 23,984 39,024,377
 Energy Content
Fossil Fuel Non Fossil Fuel
MFO DO MB DO RB Black Liquor Bark Palmshell Saw Dust

GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month

4,647 21,706 47,244 4,610,330 1,110,789 30,776 18,363

5,836 10,472 10,197 4,820,454 1,255,682 30,327 16,637
1,595 6,634 18,701 4,960,562 997,608 21,745 10,722
6,471 813 14,007 4,915,215 993,619 16,873 27,206
1,843 8,807 15,762 4,876,120 1,291,558 30,996 19,674
2,145 14,997 3,822 5,023,315 1,533,968 19,760 25,907
1,578 8,317 6,931 5,427,625 1,628,203 15,046 29,060
2,177 7,642 35,185 5,228,589 1,719,950 17,141 11,377
1,686 20,440 12,748 5,132,552 1,628,991 16,887 16,045
2,493 4,266 14,706 4,941,675 1,632,559 32,135 22,066
4,084 9,496 13,798 5,321,226 1,274,079 26,539 17,772
3,792 15,544 11,214 5,220,303 1,436,807 9,642 18,508
38,346 129,133 204,316 60,477,968 16,503,811 267,866 233,336
4,994 8,506 8,502 5,696,570 1,581,469 8,006 20,398
4,378 9,518 23,216 4,954,674 1,831,398 9,720 19,832
6,380 15,170 16,805 5,479,593 2,058,649 10,034 18,335
9,937 10,306 7,915 5,335,161 1,551,676 8,111 26,961
2,471 17,053 6,544 4,814,433 1,726,317 5,758 27,853
3,107 4,580 11,787 4,249,940 1,597,753 3,418 28,699
1,714 5,784 14,613 6,063,662 1,843,739 3,349 32,569
2,193 30,170 5,736 5,788,766 2,039,688 10,169 33,952
11,211 13,668 11,754 5,226,928 1,429,061 30,284 31,138
8,029 21,643 9,730 5,384,560 1,315,928 18,847 25,798
5,433 2,641 17,456 5,234,893 1,055,582 18,440 30,256
8,409 8,007 13,062 5,434,799 1,093,944 1,171 28,836
68,254 147,046 147,121 63,663,979 19,125,203 127,306 324,627
11,101 22,292 6,527 5,214,800 847,319 15,129 25,522
9,244 17,934 10,757 5,117,216 1,138,681 7,031 23,976
12,406 28,372 13,569 5,451,475 1,202,131 13,710 22,816
6,743 19,292 14,935 5,413,162 1,125,285 12,868 21,628
6,817 16,719 9,706 5,132,667 1,118,322 27,956 21,742
8,500 11,281 30,265 4,244,911 1,024,161 18,111 13,358
12,553 10,708 17,375 5,280,763 1,504,602 10,248 9,889
13,708 10,210 5,981 5,267,317 1,859,169 8,126 13,532
 18,078 16,299 9,672 5,114,472 1,466,558 22,178 14,656
17,130 28,876 9,438 5,204,337 1,457,825 43,380 17,034
- - 9,982 5,120,843 1,307,998 6,980 17,845
- - 11,004 5,223,242 1,101,452 11,547 14,439
116,280 181,983 149,211 61,785,205 15,153,505 197,264 216,437
38,346 129,133 204,316 60,477,968 16,503,811 267,866 233,336
68,254 147,046 147,121 63,663,979 19,125,203 127,306 324,627
116,280 181,983 149,211 61,785,205 15,153,505 197,264 216,437
Energy Content
Total Energy Fossil Fuel Total Energy Non Fossil Fuel Total Energy
Fibre Tankos

ton/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month GJ/month

8,254 3,086,453 5,778,512 8,864,965

11,631 2,883,473 6,134,731 9,018,204
2,102 3,423,224 5,992,739 9,415,962
- 3,396,446 5,952,913 9,349,359
8,943 3,275,466 6,227,291 9,502,757
3,577 3,429,211 6,606,527 10,035,738
894 3,580,661 7,100,828 10,681,489
- 3,257,343 6,977,057 10,234,400
- 3,452,349 6,794,475 10,246,823
1,789 3,369,974 6,630,223 10,000,197
894 3,725,452 6,640,510 10,365,961
89 3,752,638 6,685,349 10,437,987
38,173
- 3,976,185 7,306,443 11,282,628
447 3,392,408 6,816,071 10,208,480
- 4,461,434 7,566,611 12,028,044
447 4,375,971 6,922,356 11,298,327
447 4,315,729 6,574,807 10,890,536
447 4,591,658 5,880,257 10,471,915
113 4,611,351 7,943,431 12,554,782
- 4,633,202 7,872,575 12,505,777
- 4,368,176 6,717,412 11,085,588
- 4,458,906 6,745,132 11,204,038
- 3,242,805 6,339,171 9,581,977
21,548 2,348,831 6,580,298 8,929,128
23,449 132,017,771 83,264,564 215,282,335
- 5,048 4,312,719 6,107,818 10,420,537
- 15,418 3,759,582 6,302,321 10,061,903
- 34,021 4,263,729 6,724,154 10,987,883
3,320 42,059 3,865,325 6,618,323 10,483,647
4,486 38,138 4,076,459 6,343,310 10,419,769
3,985 40,940 3,964,889 5,345,466 9,310,355
1,455 13,178 4,023,172 6,820,135 10,843,307
26,713 13,180 3,527,312 7,188,037 10,715,348
131,307 11,287 3,621,506 6,760,459 10,381,965
201,383 15,003 4,036,172 6,938,963 10,975,135
46,197 2,388 9,982 6,502,251 6,512,233
35,478 3,731 11,004 6,389,888 6,400,893
454,322 234,393 117,512,977 78,041,126 195,554,103
- 38,173 40,632,690 77,521,155 118,153,844
- 23,449 48,776,657 83,264,564 132,041,221
454,322 234,393 39,471,851 78,041,126 117,512,977
Energy Fossil Energy Non Fossil

% %

34.8 65.2
32.0 68.0
36.4 63.6
36.3 63.7
34.5 65.5
34.2 65.8
33.5 66.5
31.8 68.2
33.7 66.3
33.7 66.3
35.9 64.1
36.0 64.0

35.2 64.8
33.2 66.8
37.1 62.9
38.7 61.3
39.6 60.4
43.8 56.2
36.7 63.3
37.0 63.0
39.4 60.6
39.8 60.2
33.8 66.2
26.3 73.7
61.3 38.7
41.4 58.6
37.4 62.6
38.8 61.2
36.9 63.1
39.1 60.9
42.6 57.4
37.1 62.9
32.9 67.1
34.9 65.1
36.8 63.2
0.2 99.8
0.2 99.8
60.1 39.9
413 787
441 759
378 822
 Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable

No Production (Ton) Energy (GJ)

Jan-13 334053 8,864,965.23
Feb-13 296486 9,018,204.05
Mar-13 331399 9,415,962.49
Apr-13 327832 9,349,358.56
Mei-13 308396 9,502,757.40
Juni-13 297965 10,035,738.31
Juli-13 343388 10,681,488.84
Agu-13 347366 10,234,399.58
Sep-13 349100 10,246,823.49
Okt-13 363725 10,000,197.33
Nov-13 360055 10,365,961.39
Des-13 364693 10,437,987.45

Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3
Pulp Paper Tissue

Jan-13 230327 84052 19674

Feb-13 198040 81005 17441
Mar-13 227123 85178 19098
Apr-13 228151 80692 18989
Mei-13 202565 86273 19558
Juni-13 195364 83575 19026
Juli-13 238823 83243 21322
Agu-13 239683 85685 21998
Sep-13 239683 88760 20657
Okt-13 250116 91999 21610
Nov-13 246922 92319 20814
Des-13 255790 90344 18559
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE

Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy

12,000,000.00

10,000,000.00
 Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy

12,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

8,000,000.00

6,000,000.00

4,000,000.00

2,000,000.00

0.00
1 2 3
Actual 4
Energy 5 6 7 Energy
Prediction 8 9 10 11 12
 SUMMARY OUTPUT

Actual Energy Prediction

Energy
Regression Statistics
8,864,965.23 9,738,297.59 Multiple R 0.6660922749
9,018,204.05 9,109,529.75 R Square 0.4436789187
9,415,962.49 9,674,525.51 Adjusted R Squ 0.2350585132
9,349,358.56 9,491,727.57 Standard Error 519920.77793
9,502,757.40 9,665,775.73 Observations 12
10,035,738.31 9,443,351.27
10,681,488.84 10,009,253.73 ANOVA
10,234,399.58 10,212,876.93 df SS
10,246,823.49 10,118,976.21 Regression 3 1.724676E+12
10,000,197.33 10,444,393.32 Residual 8 2.162541E+12
10,365,961.39 10,315,374.01 Total 11 3.887217E+12
10,437,987.45 9,929,762.50
118,153,844.11118,153,844.11 Coefficients Standard Error
0.00 Intercept 2291287.1326 3634424.4145
9,846,153.68 9,846,153.68 X Variable 1 5.0007152474 11.090950369
X Variable 2 38.071854711 52.897364157
X Variable 3 157.32414299 139.61534323

Y= 2291287.13256942 + 5.00071524744459 X1 + 38.07185471089

gy

LINEST
gy

157.32414299 38.071854711 5.0007152474

139.61534323 52.897364157 11.090950369
0.4436789187 519920.77793 #N/A
2.1267282922 8 #N/A
1.724676E+12 2.162541E+12 #N/A

Y = 2291287.133 + 5.000715247 X1 + 38.07185471 X2 + 157.32414

10 11 12 PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION

Regression Checks
R2>0.75? 0.4436789187
Cvrmse<0.2? 0.0528044549
Mean bias error <0.005%? 1.135049E-15
Independent variable sensitivit 1.1268399256
Intercept tstat>2? 0.6304401664
 MS F Significance F
5.749E+11 2.1267282922 0.1750487
2.703E+11

t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

0.6304402 0.5459895806 -6089711 10672285 -6089711 10672285
0.4508825 0.6640442963 -20.57506 30.576493 -20.57506 30.576493
0.7197307 0.4921789201 -83.90969 160.0534 -83.90969 160.0534
1.1268399 0.2924726467 -164.6294 479.2777 -164.6294 479.2777

24744459 X1 + 38.0718547108939 X2 + 157.324142985524 X3

 2291287
3634424
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A

+ 38.07185471 X2 + 157.324143 X3

REGRESSION

NO 0.719730658 NO 0.4508825 NO
YES
YES
NO
NO
 2013

14,000,000.00

12,000,000.00

10,000,000.00

8,000,000.00

6,000,000.00

4,000,000.00

2,000,000.00

-
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13

Total Production (Ton) Energy (G/J)

Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy 2013

12,000,000.000

10,000,000.000

8,000,000.000

6,000,000.000

4,000,000.000

2,000,000.000

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Actual Predictive

INTENSITAS ENERGI 2013

12000000

10000000

8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
 8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

JUMLAH Actual Energy

TAHUN 2013

Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Total Production (Ton) Energy (G/J)

Jan-13 619,347.08 8,864,965.23
Feb-13 648,730.84 9,018,204.05 Jan-13
Mar-13 691,660.07 9,415,962.49 Feb-13
Apr-13 689,917.44 9,349,358.56 Mar-13
May-13 675,731.08 9,502,757.40 Apr-13
Jun-13 715,655.06 10,035,738.31 May-13
Jul-13 767,573.68 10,681,488.84 Jun-13
Aug-13 748,404.88 10,234,399.58 Jul-13
Sep-13 732,673.29 10,246,823.49 Aug-13
Oct-13 555,607.95 8,367,638.77 Sep-13
Nov-13 726,847.56 10,365,961.39 Oct-13
Dec-13 737,015.07 10,437,987.45 Nov-13
Dec-13

INTENSITAS ENERGY

Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
January 150991.5 107.51 476.35 1036.79
February 147098.84 135.03 230.91 224.84
March 167744.09 36.9 145.02 408.81
April 169326 149.723 17.82 306.938
May 168521.57 42.64 192.52 344.58
June 173908.36 49.64 328.73 83.78
 July 185898.18 36.51 180.78 150.66
August 173551.75 50.37 167.29 770.23
September 174156 39.01 448.52 279.74
October 173191.15 57.68 93.49 322.32
November 188697.07 94.49 206.23 299.656
December 191311.99 87.73 339 244.57
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE

Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Total Production (Ton) Energy (G/J) Jan-14

Jan-14 201,910.870 3,976,185.217 Feb-14
Feb-14 170,693.810 3,392,408.478 Mar-14
Mar-14 225,633.420 4,461,433.502 Apr-14
Apr-14 221,493.780 4,375,970.942 May-14
May-14 223,119.140 4,315,728.606 Jun-14
Jun-14 227,472.737 4,591,658.089 Jul-14
Jul-14 228,664.270 4,611,351.183 Aug-14
Aug-14 228,028.240 4,633,202.353 Sep-14
Sep-14 227,408.517 4,368,176.239 Oct-14
Oct-14 223,907.854 4,458,905.792 Nov-14
Nov-14 166,184.340 3,242,805.479 Dec-14
Dec-14 119,106.530 2,348,830.629

INTENSITAS ENERGY
 Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
January 201421.03 115.54 187.19 187.11
February 169863.92 101.29 211.86 516.74
March 224778.57 147.62 335.53 371.7
April 220859.65 229.92 228.63 175.58
May 222543.93 57.18 374.36 143.67
June 227042.29 71.88 100.34 258.227
July 228173.89 39.65 127.81 322.92
August 227188.51 50.74 662.95 126.04
September 226586.93 259.4 302.26 259.927
October 223031.01 185.77 476.75 214.324
November 165614.55 125.7 58.35 385.74
December 118448 194.56 176.32 287.65
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE

TAHUN 2015

Axis X Axis Y
Independent Variable Dependent Variable

Total Production (Ton) Energy (G/J) Jan-15

Jan-15 215,787.337 4,312,719.124 Feb-15
Feb-15 191,313.720 3,759,582.203 Mar-15
Mar-15 208,850.500 4,263,728.661 Apr-15
Apr-15 192,325.090 3,865,324.599 May-15
May-15 204,521.534 4,076,459.033 Jun-15
Jun-15 195,630.441 3,964,889.317 Jul-15
Jul-15 200,261.360 4,023,171.693 Aug-15
Aug-15 176,347.880 3,527,311.672 Sep-15
Sep-15 178,512.670 3,621,506.395 Oct-15
Oct-15 194,755.570 4,036,172.079 Nov-15
Nov-15 194,373.830 9,982.141 Dec-15
Dec-15 195,835.930 11,004.395
 INTENSITAS ENERGY

Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
January 214900.98 256.86 486.93 142.567
February 190469.58 213.88 393.96 236.3
March 207645.07 290.4 619 296.03
April 191419.36 157.84 421.55 326.34
May 203783.21 159.58 366.17 212.574
June 194481.36 185.82 261.56 701.701
July 199336.81 273.46 248.26 402.83
August 175680.92 313.77 222.72 130.47
September 177536.19 412.21 354.13 210.14
October 193528.06 393.67 628.43 205.41
November 193505.78 268.78 381.57 217.7
December 195089.17 206.19 301.84 238.73
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE
 2014
5,000,000.000
4,500,000.000
4,000,000.000
3,500,000.000
3,000,000.000
2,500,000.000
2,000,000.000
1,500,000.000
1,000,000.000
500,000.000
-
ep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec

Total Production (Ton) Energy (G/J)

ergy 2013 Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy 2014

5,000,000.000
4,500,000.000
4,000,000.000
3,500,000.000
3,000,000.000
2,500,000.000
2,000,000.000
1,500,000.000
1,000,000.000
500,000.000
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
9 10 11 12
Actual Energy Prediction Energy

INTENSITAS ENERGI 2014

5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
 3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Jumlah Actual Energy

TAHUN 2013

Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3 X4
Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
150,991.500 107.510 476.350 1,036.790
147,098.840 135.030 230.910 224.840
167,744.090 36.900 145.020 408.810
169,326.000 149.723 17.820 306.938
168,521.570 42.640 192.520 344.580
173,908.360 49.640 328.730 83.780
185,898.180 36.510 180.780 150.660
173,551.750 50.370 167.290 770.230
174,156.000 39.010 448.520 279.740
173,191.150 57.680 93.490 322.320
188,697.070 94.490 206.230 299.656
191,311.990 87.730 339.000 244.570
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE

JUMLAH Actual Energy

300301.77 8,864,965
316024.44 9,018,204
338135.301 9,415,962
338901.791 9,349,359
343471.82 9,502,757
360636.64 10,035,738
 360805.77 10,681,489
349462.91 10,234,400
348587.91 10,246,823
362962.086 8,367,639
381280.736 10,365,961
191983.29 10,437,987
116,521,286

9,710,107

TAHUN 2014

Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3 X4
Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
201,421.030 115.540 187.190 187.110
169,863.920 101.290 211.860 516.740
224,778.570 147.620 335.530 371.700
220,859.650 229.920 228.630 175.580
222,543.930 57.180 374.360 143.670
227,042.290 71.880 100.340 258.227
228,173.890 39.650 127.810 322.920
227,188.510 50.740 662.950 126.040
226,586.930 259.400 302.260 259.927
223,031.010 185.770 476.750 214.324
165,614.550 125.700 58.350 385.740
118,448.000 194.560 176.320 287.650
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE
 Jumlah Actual Energy
372604.68 3,976,185
396327.23 3,392,408
447127.2 4,461,434
444612.92 4,375,971
450591.877 4,315,729
456137.007 4,591,658
456692.51 4,611,351
455436.757 4,633,202
451316.371 4,368,176
390092.194 4,458,906
285290.87 3,242,805
119106.53 2,348,831
4,725,336
4,725,336
393,778 4,064,721

TAHUN 2015

Energy Drivers
X1 X2 X3 X4
Coal MFO DO MB DO RB
214,900.980 256.860 486.930 142.567
190,469.580 213.880 393.960 236.300
207,645.070 290.400 619.000 296.030
191,419.360 157.840 421.550 326.340
203,783.210 159.580 366.170 212.574
194,481.360 185.820 261.560 701.701
199,336.810 273.460 248.260 402.830
175,680.920 313.770 222.720 130.470
177,536.190 412.210 354.130 210.140
193,528.060 393.670 628.430 205.410
193,505.780 268.780 381.570 217.700
195,089.170 206.190 301.840 238.730
JUMLAH
SELISIH
AVERAGE
Jumlah Actual Energy
407101.057 4,312,719
400164.22 3,759,582
401175.59 4,263,729
396846.624 3,865,325
400151.975 4,076,459
395891.801 3,964,889
376609.24 4,023,172
354860.55 3,527,312
373268.24 3,621,506
389129.4 4,036,172
390209.76 9,982
195835.93 11,004
4,481,244
4,481,244
373,437 3,289,321
4 2015
5,000,000.000
4,500,000.000
4,000,000.000
3,500,000.000
3,000,000.000
2,500,000.000
2,000,000.000
1,500,000.000
1,000,000.000
500,000.000
-
n-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15

) Energy (G/J) Total Production (Ton) Energy (G/J)

rediciton Energy 2014 Perbandingan Actual & Prediciton Energy

5,000,000.000
4,500,000.000
4,000,000.000
3,500,000.000
3,000,000.000
2,500,000.000
2,000,000.000
1,500,000.000
1,000,000.000
500,000.000
-
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Prediction Energy Column J Column K

NERGI 2014 INTENSITAS ENERGI 2013

5000000
4500000
4000000
3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
 3500000
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

ual Energy Jumlah Actual Energy

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Actual Energy Prediction Energy Regression Statistics

8,864,965.228 9,126,213.226 Multiple R
9,018,204.049 8,717,103.959 R Square
9,415,962.486 9,399,532.249 Adjusted R Square
9,349,358.560 9,228,160.184 Standard Error
9,502,757.397 9,518,421.821 Observations
10,035,738.312 10,003,443.213
10,681,488.841 10,229,162.501 ANOVA
10,234,399.576 9,590,454.246
10,246,823.495 10,175,535.655 Regression
8,367,638.770 9,539,772.319 Residual
10,365,961.391 10,329,357.285 Total
10,437,987.449 10,664,128.895
116,521,285.553 116,521,285.553
0.000 Intercept
9,710,107.129 9,710,107.129 X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
X Variable 4

Y = 2599594.25241101+ 39.68639

-195.317777208092
722.534471435934
 0.618030957582198
2.83152312271901
3601507552604.8

Y = 2599594.25241101+ 3

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR

Regression Checks
R2>0.75?
Cvrmse<0.2?
Mean bias error <0.005%?
Independent variable sensitivity >
Intercept tstat>2?

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Actual Energy Prediction Energy Regression Statistics

3,976,185.217 3,996,166.402 Multiple R
3,392,408.478 3,401,979.626 R Square
4,461,433.502 4,469,124.645 Adjusted R Square
4,375,970.942 4,325,672.535 Standard Error
4,315,728.606 4,459,518.753 Observations
4,591,658.089 4,524,349.510
4,611,351.183 4,570,402.453 ANOVA
4,633,202.353 4,579,817.252
4,368,176.239 4,436,474.187 Regression
4,458,905.792 4,416,628.972 Residual
3,242,805.479 3,282,213.018 Total
2,348,830.629 2,314,309.156
48,776,656.510 48,776,656.510
0.000 Intercept
4,064,721.376 4,064,721.376 X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
X Variable 4
 Y = 28619.6839170379 +19.84769

68.3992828735367
249.969756408214
0.992422597660041
229.199858736081
5502025406786.4

Y=28619.6839170379+

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR

Regression Checks
R2>0.75?
Cvrmse<0.2?
Mean bias error <0.005%?
Independent variable sensitivity >
Intercept tstat>2?

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Actual Energy Prediction Energy Regression Statistics

4,312,719.124 3,413,466.600 Multiple R 0.375656865472618
3,759,582.203 2,985,642.844 R Square 0.141118080576712
4,263,728.661 4,257,533.276 Adjusted R Squ -0.34967158766517
3,865,324.599 3,169,545.856 Standard Error 1799455.54759698
4,076,459.033 2,834,024.669 Observations 12
3,964,889.317 3,918,816.653
4,023,171.693 3,335,775.667 ANOVA
3,527,311.672 2,301,056.263 df
3,621,506.395 3,237,145.716 Regression 4
4,036,172.079 4,161,701.638 Residual 7
9,982.141 3,099,334.392 Total 11
11,004.395 2,757,807.737
39,471,851.312 39,471,851.312 Coefficients
0.000 Intercept -1833363.4362555
3,289,320.943 3,289,320.943 X Variable 1 12.2586597151712
X Variable 2 3036.1051496205
X Variable 3 2911.31631461919
X Variable 4 2910.70744095212

Y=-1833363.4362555+

2910.70744095212
3897.24865770286
0.141118080576713
0.287532704350175
3724169899955.39
#N/A
Y=-1833363.4362555+

PART B : VERIFY THE VALIDITY OR

Regression Checks
R2>0.75?
Cvrmse<0.2?
Mean bias error <0.005%?
Independent variable sensitivity >
Intercept tstat>2?
15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Energy (G/J)

ediciton Energy 2015

7 8 9 10 11 12

Column K

ERGI 2013

7 8 9 10 11 12
 7 8 9 10 11 12

al Energy

egression Statistics
0.7861494499
0.61803095758
0.39976293334
563900.023924
12

df SS MS F Significance F
4 3.602E+12 900376888151.202 2.8315231 0.1089463
7 2.226E+12 317983236981.869
11 5.827E+12

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

2599594.25241 2935577
39.6863947992 15.293976
-404.84203971 4680.6908
1638.16265164 1299.0341
-195.31777721 722.53447
0.885548009631162 0.4052526 -4341942 9541131
2.5949036300301 0.035689 3.5218874 75.850902
-0.086491942404742 0.9334974 -11472.92 10663.233
1.26106210117587 0.2476878 -1433.565 4709.8902
-0.270323126341539 0.7947083 -1903.84 1513.2048

94.25241101+ 39.6863947991945 X1 -404.84203971243 X2 + 1638.16265164385 X3 -195.317777208093 X4

LINEST
1638.16265164 -404.842 39.6863947991944 2599594
1299.03408414 4680.6908 15.2939763696481 2935577
 563900.023924 #N/A #N/A #N/A
7 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2225882658873 #N/A #N/A #N/A

= 2599594.25241101+ 39.6863947991945 X1 -404.84203971243 X2 + 1638.16265164385 X3 -195.317777208093 X4

ERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION

0.618031 NO
0.0580735 YES
error <0.005%? 0.0833333 NO
nt variable sensitivity > 2 -0.270323 NO 1.2610621 NO -0.086492
0.885548 NO

egression Statistics
0.99620409438
0.99242259766
0.98809265347
77468.3181166
12

df SS MS F Significance F
4 5.502E+12 1375506351696.6 229.19986 1.694E-07
7 4.201E+10 6001340311.82134
11 5.544E+12

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

28619.683917 208498.11
19.8476956019 0.7807816
-517.99476667 327.27853
90.0387451235 161.75283
68.3992828735 249.96976
0.137265916988334 0.8946854 -464400 521639.37
25.4202918539068 3.724E-08 18.001441 21.693951
-1.58273370403867 0.1574977 -1291.886 255.89599
0.556644012222346 0.5951104 -292.4459 472.52341
0.273630233738509 0.7922667 -522.6853 659.48383
.6839170379 +19.847695601918X1-517.994766666034X2+90.0387451234576X3+68.3992828735378X4

LINEST
90.0387451235 -517.9948 19.847695601918 28619.684
161.752831516 327.27853 0.78078157859024 208498.11
77468.3181166 #N/A #N/A #N/A
7 #N/A #N/A #N/A
42009382183 #N/A #N/A #N/A

Y=28619.6839170379+19.847695601918X1-517.994766666034x2+90.0387451234576x3+68.3992828735378X4

ERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION

0.9924226 YES
0.0190587 YES
error <0.005%? 0.0833333 NO
nt variable sensitivity > 2 0.2736302 NO 0.556644 NO -1.582734
0.1372659 NO

SS MS F Significance F
3724169899955 9.31E+11 0.287532704350174 0.8771876
2.2666282E+13 3.238E+12
2.6390452E+13

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

13378202.3734 -0.137041 0.894856653421956 -33467785 29801058 -33467785
68.2508090926 0.1796119 0.862545867470554 -149.1289 173.64618 -149.1289
8658.04242848 0.3506688 0.73615278270394 -17436.91 23509.122 -17436.91
 5665.88456657 0.5138326 0.623186617467417 -10486.37 16309 -10486.37
3897.2486577 0.7468621 0.479475678808178 -6304.821 12126.236 -6304.821

Y=-1833363.4362555+12.2586597151712X1+3036.1051496205x2+2911.31631461919x3+2910.70744095212X4

LINEST
2911.31631462 3036.1051 12.2586597151712 -1833363
5665.88456657 8658.0424 68.250809092632 13378202
1799455.5476 #N/A #N/A #N/A
7 #N/A #N/A #N/A
2.2666282E+13 #N/A #N/A #N/A
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Y=-1833363.4362555+12.2586597151712X1+3036.1051496205x2+2911.31631461919x3+2910.70744095212X4

ERIFY THE VALIDITY OR REGRESSION

0.1411181 NO
0.5470599 NO
error <0.005%? 0.0833333 NO
nt variable sensitivity > 2 0.7468621 NO 0.5138326 NO 0.3506688
-0.137041 NO
 Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-4341942 9541131
3.5218874 75.850902
-11472.92 10663.233
-1433.565 4709.8902
-1903.84 1513.2048

7777208093 X4
-195.317777208093 X4

NO 2.5949036 NO

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-464400 521639.37
18.001441 21.693951
-1291.886 255.89599
-292.4459 472.52341
-522.6853 659.48383
8735378X4

8.3992828735378X4

NO 25.420292 NO

Upper 95.0%
29801058
173.64618
23509.122
 16309
12126.236

910.70744095212X4

910.70744095212X4

NO 0.1796119 NO