Enterprise Mobility:

unintended consequences of technology

David Gautschi
Director of Research
CCG Group LLC

University of Maine
Computer Science Seminar
16 September 2004

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC For Discussion Only

 Outline
• The problem of technology and unintended consequences
• Why the problem is important
• Consider enterprise mobility
• The quality and implications of market information
• How to think of demand for enterprise mobility
• Case: assessing marketing of Wi-Fi to the enterprise
market
• Revolutionary solution : TELE
• Labshop

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 2

 Visions conditioned by complex
environments
John Elfreth Watkins Predictions for the 20th Century:

Š Mosquitoes will disappear

Š Life expectancy to rise to 50

Š Electrical central heating for all

Š Air vessels no competition for ships

Š Automobile main use as hearses

Š Submarines able to destroy fleets

Š Phasing out of C, X, and Q

Source: Ladies Home Journal, December 1900

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 3

 Speaking of Visions…

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 4

 Why it’s important to try to tell the ‘truth’…

Asset valuation…

V0 = Σt E(Cash in – Cash out)t / ( 1 + r)t

‘E’ and var(E) Î uncertainty

Risk = uncertainty that matters

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 5

 Consumption Activity: Accessing information from the Internet and corporate networks

Technology chain of access dependencies:

Corporate Internet Internet Access Devices &

Internet Locations
Network Connector Connector Modes Software

Technology Examples:
• Firewall • ISP account • Network • ISP account • WiFi Access • Laptop • Coffee shop
• Authentication • CLEC access backbone • CLEC access Point • PDA • Hotel
• VPN (X.25, frame • Authentication • Bluetooth • Wireless Card • Airport
• WLAN access relay, ATM) • Cell tower • Cellular Phone • Home
points • Modem (T-1, • Operating
• Ethernet cable DSL, Cable, System
PSTN) • Application

Methods for accessing data and the technology chains they involve:

Wireless Extra-Campus: Public hotspots, Home WLAN

Wireless Campus:
WLAN private hotspots,
Point solutions

Cellular Extra-Campus: GPRS, EDGE, 1xRTT, EV-DO

Wireless Local Loop:

Wireless Local Loop:
Connecting Corporate
Connecting hotspots
Network

Wired Extra-Campus: Cable, DSL, Ethernet, Dial-up

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 6

 Finding: the enterprise mobility value chain consists of five essential stages

Network Transaction Customer Deployment Enterprise

Operation Processing Management Processes

• Transmission • Authorization • Customer care • Coverage IT

• Switching • Authentication • Customer analytics • Access detection • Security
• Routing / addressing • Encryption / • Branding • Session initiation • Reliability
• Clearing decryption • Signal processing • Cost
• Enhanced functions • Billing • Integration
(Intelligent Network) • Service level User
management • Access to service
• Compliance • Simplicity
management • Flexibility
• User device • Reliability
management

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 7

 Comparison of Hotspot Location Growth
Predictions
200000

150000

100000

50000

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
IDC Gartner Group

Comparison of Hotspot User Predictions (1000s)

80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Gartner Group Rutberg

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 8

 Hotspot Revenues per User
$200
$180
$160
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$-
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Western Europe ($/user) United States ($/user)
Asia/Pacific ($/user) Rest Of the World ($/user)

Corre lation of Hotspot Locations to Use rs

(2002-2007)
100
90
80
70
Locations

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Users

Western Europe United States Asia/Pacif ic Rest Of the World

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 9

 Respondents by industry

Respondents by Industry Distribution

3% Education
2% 1%
Energy
22% Finance
Health Care
27% Manufacturing
Media
1%
Professional Services
Real Estate
9%
Retail
3% 3% Technology
2% Transportation
5%
12% 6% Travel

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 10

 Mobility taxonomy

Activity Example Definition

Conditions
Within Campus Within the physical boundaries of the enterprise facility and IT infrastructure
stationary Office Desk Activity conducted at an exclusive access point
portable office Conference Rooms Activity conducted at designated access points
actively mobile Whole Campus Activity conducted presuming ubiquitous access within a
(Facilities Maintenance) defined locale

Outside Campus Beyond the physical boundaries of the enterprise facility and IT infrastructure
stationary Home Activity conducted at an access point exclusive to the user
(Telecommuter)
locally, Coffee shop, Bookstore Activity conducted at designated access points within a
portable office (Nomad) delimited and defined locale

locally, Delivery truck, Gas stations Activity conducted presuming ubiquitous access within a
actively mobile (Windshield Warrior) delimited and defined locale

extensively, Hotel, Airport, Business center Activity conducted at designated access points beyond
portable office (Road Warrior) the defined locale

extensively, City, Highway, “Anywhere” Activity conducted presuming ubiquitous access

actively mobile (Always On)

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 11

 Sub- Markets with Associated Technology Choices

Routes to User Segmentation Characteristics Typical Applications Technolo

Market gy
Data Primary Primary Horizontal Vertical Choices
Intensity Location Information
Needs Conditions Needs

(1) Light or Actively mobile Alerts Email SFA GPRS

General, limited data Message SMS Service 1xRTT
Diffuse transfer IM dispatch Wi-Fi
Enterprise Paging
Alerts
Minimal file
transfer

(2) Medium to Portable office Message Internet SFA Wi-Fi

Extended heavy data Forms Intranet CRM WLAN
Office transfer Knowledge Email Forms campus
Power Documents Database
inquiry

(3) Rich data and Portable office, Forms SFA Customized GPRS
Specialized medium to actively mobile Knowledge CRM versions of 1xRtt
User Process heavy transfer ERP SFA, CRM, Wi-Fi
or Activity Forms ERP, forms, WLAN
industry- campus
specific apps RF
Bluetooth

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 12

 Venue assessment cities
U.S. Venues Europe Venues

Baltimore MD 3 Birmingham, England 1

Bangor ME 1 Brussels, Belgium 1

Billings, Bozeman MT 4 Cambridge, England 1

Boston, Cambridge, Winchester MA 3 Cologne, Germany 4

Chicago IL 4 Düsseldorf, Germany 2

Dallas, Plano TX 5 Fontainebleau, France 2

Greenwich CT 2 Leuven, Belgium 2

Los Angeles CA 8 Lille, France 3

Manhattan, Brooklyn NY 15 Lisbon, Portugal 6

Paterson, Hoboken, Jersey City NJ 5 London, England 4

Philadelphia PA 2 Oxford, England 1

Phoenix AZ 2 Paris, France 4

Portland OR 3 York, England 2

Raleigh, Chapel Hill NC 6 Total 33

San Francisco, San Jose, Menlo Park CA 10

Seattle WA 10

Washington DC 3

Total 86

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 13

 Venue types

U.S. Europe
Venue Type
Coffee shop/café 33 14
Restaurant/pub 5 4
Bookstore 9 2
Library 2

Hotel 10 7
Airport 7 1
Copy Shop 8

Train Station 2 5
Public Park 2

College/University 3 1
Municipal Office 1 2
Shopping center 2

Truck stop 1

Office building 1

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 14

 Selected Findings from Wi-Fi Venue Deployment Assessments

Finding 1: pricing of Wi-Fi does not reflect value delivered

Finding 2: Wi-Fi service is poorly defined for prospective users

Finding 3: technical performance is not a differentiator

Finding 6: there is more than one business case for Wi-Fi

Finding 7: venues are conducive to only a few benefit segments

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 15

 The problem of troubleshooting systemic solutions

A self-employed worker purchases the following services, software,

and equipment for her home office:

ƒA laptop computer from Dell with Windows XP and an Intel CentrinoTM

processor with integrated Wi-Fi (802.11g card)
ƒA Broadcom 570x Gigabit Integrated Controller
ƒAn Intel PRO/Wireless LAN 2100 3A Mini PCI Adapter
ƒA Sony CDROM player
ƒAnti-virus software from MacAfee
ƒMicrosoft Office Professional edition
ƒLocal telephone service from Verizon
ƒLong distance telephone service from AT&T
ƒDSL service from COVAD
ƒA Cisco router
ƒA wireless access point from Netgear

After installing the equipment and services, she accomplishes her work
with no significant problems for about two weeks. On a late Sunday
afternoon, she experiences a problem reading a file from the Internet.
She cannot determine for herself if the issue is one of the connection
(hence the DSL service), the computer, its operating system, or the
application program she is using.

What should she do? Which technology vendor will solve the problem
with her system?

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 16

 Marketing Problems Abound
Decision makers aware of
complex IT project failures
Standish Report

Enterprise
Economic pressures technologies are
retard decision-making RISKY
Fixation on ROI

Technology vendors oversell

their products as solutions

Cannot easily try the technology

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 17
 TELE
Technology Experience Laboratory for the Enterprise
Virtual
Enterprise
Environment
Behavioral simulation
Experimental Method
© 2004 CCG Group, LLC
TELE
Generates Reference Case Evidence from
prospective technology users in a
realistic enterprise context
1. Participants run businesses
2. Technologies introduced as treatments
3. Scenarios challenge the performance of
the virtual businesses
4. Virtual + realistic mean Î SAFE!
Return on Technology
1. Faster and better than conventional
needs analysis
2. Faster and better than a pilot
3. Faster and better than a conventional
systems integration plan
18
Enterprise Mobility Labshop
Ayers Island, Maine 8 – 12 November, 2004

Laboratory: experience marketing and using

enterprise mobility solutions

Workshop: explore and discuss industry

applications with experts, complementary
vendors and enterprise users.

Market Reports: CCG Group Market Reports

on Enterprise Mobility

www.ccggroup.net

© 2004 CCG Group, LLC 19