Renewable Energy, Vol. 13, No. 4, pp.

523 530, 1998

~ Pergamon © 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved
Printed in Great Britain
PII : S0960-1481 (98)00025-1 0960-1481/98 $19.00 + 0.00

DATA BANK

A new model to predict direct normal instantaneous solar

radiation, based on laws of spectroscopy, kinetic theory and
thermodynamics

N. N I J E G O R O D O V and P. V. C. L U H A N G A *
Department of Physics, University of Botswana, Private Bag 0022, Gaborone,
Botswana

(Received 31 July 1997;accepted 11 February 1998)

Abstract--The attenuation of solar radiation by the atmosphere is caused by two
simultaneous processes : (a) scattering by air molecules and by the atmospheric tur-
bidity; and (b) absorption by 03, H20 and COz. Since the atmospheric turbidity is
closely related to horizontal visibility, V (meteorological optical range), the terrestrial
direct normal solar radiation can be expressed as :

Ibn : lo, exp(--NsKs-Kt/V--NoKo-NcKc--NwKw)mf

where Ioo is direct normal extraterrestrial solar radiation; No, Ns, No, and Nw are
thickness of the ozone layer in precipitate cm, the total number of gas moles, the
number of CO2 moles and the number of H20 moles in the vertical atmosphere
column, respectively ; V is visibility in km ; Ks, K,, are the Rayleigh and the modified
turbidity scattering coefficients ; Ko, Kc, Kw are the absorption coefficients of ozone,
carbon dioxide and water vapour, respectively ; m is relative air mass ;fis the empirical
function for air mass correction.
Based on experimental measurements of direct normal solar radiation at different
locations : Murmansk (polar zone), St Petersburg, Moscow, Kharkov, Crimea (Russia
and Ukraine), Kabul (Afghanistan), and Gaborone (Botswana), a new physical
model to calculate all variables and coefficients involved in the above equation is
proposed. The model is based on laws of spectroscopy, kinetic theory and ther-
modynamics.
A special software to predict direct normal solar radiation is developed. Com-
parison of the model proposed with the experimental measurements of Ibn showed
that the accuracy of the direct normal solar radiation obtained with this program is
within 5% of the experimental data. For countries where the meteorological con-
ditions do not change very much the accuracy can be improved to 3%. The model
can be used at any location from the Northern to the Southern Pole, with only
meteorological input data (pressure, temperature, relative humidity and visibility). ©
1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. INTRODUCTION
According to Duffle et al. [1], the instantaneous total solar radiation on a tilted surface can be
expressed by the formula (isotropic sky model) :

* Corresponding author. E-mail : luhangap@noka.ub.bw

523
524 Data Bank
/l+cosfl\ .. fl-cosfl)
= 'bn c°s "

or by an analogous formula for the anisotropic sky model. Hence, to predict IT one is supposed to
know how to simulate Ibn and Id. Several models to estimate Ibn are available, e.g. A S H R A E model
[2], M~ichler et al. [3] or the parameterization method summarized by Iqbal [4]. The essence of this
method and all important formulae are given in Appendix A. But all these models are based
either on mean monthly solar radiation or on empirical formulae. For example, according to the
parameterization method which is considered to be fairly accurate, Ibn is expressed in terms of the
individual transmittance of different atmospheric parameters as follows :

Ibn = 0.975 Ion'rrZ'aZo't'gZw (2)

where zr and Za are transmittances by Rayleigh and aerosol scattering, and Zo, Zg, rw are transmittances
by ozone, mixed gases, and water vapour absorptances, respectively. This method takes into account
meteorological conditions, but all the above transmittances are expressed by empirical formulae,
which are not satisfactory in all cases. F o r example, the transmittance by the aerosol scattering is
given by the formula :
"L"a = (0.12445a-- 0.0162) + (1.003 - 0.125a) exp[-- tim,(1.089a + 0.5123)] (3)
where m, = mr(P/Po) ; mr is air mass at sea level, which according to Kasten [5] is given by :

m,=[cosOz+O.15(93.885-Oz) 1253] i (4)

and fl is t h e / k n g s t r 6 m turbidity coefficient. Firstly, it is not easy to find fl, and secondly, eqn (3) is
not correct for the following boundary conditions (i) if fl ~ 0, z~ --. 0.986085, but ra should tend to
1 ; (ii) if fl ~ ~ , Za ~ 0.145585, but r, should tend to 0. To avoid such inconsistencies, one therefore
needs a model for Ibn which is based on physical laws and analytical formulae.
The objectives of this paper are (i) to develop a new model for the instantaneous direct normal
radiation, Ib,, based mostly on the laws of spectroscopy, kinetic theory and thermodynamics ; (ii) to
develop a special software to predict the instantaneous, hourly, and daily, direct normal radiation at
any location from the Northern to the Southern Pole; the input data for this program should be
date, location and meteorological parameters, namely : temperature, pressure, relative humidity, and
visibility ; (iii) to investigate the validity of the new model for Ibn experimentally.

2. T H E O R Y
The atmosphere is a mixture of gases which can be considered as ideal, and hence laws of
spectroscopy, kinetic theory and thermodynamics can be used to describe it. According to Bouguer's
law, the attenuation of monochromatic light in a gas is described as :
l(v) = Io e x p ( - Kv/) (5)
where Kv is the extinction coefficient due to absorption or scattering and l is the thickness of the gas
layer.
According to Beer's law : Kv = evC, where ev is a constant that depends on the gas and the frequency
of the light, and C is the density of the gas in molecules or in moles per unit volume.
Solar radiation is not monochromatic and C of the atmosphere is not constant, that is why, strictly
speaking, formula (5) can not be used to describe the attenuation of solar radiation by the atmosphere.
But it is not difficult to show that in the case of non-monochromatic light and irregular C, formula
(5) can be written as :
I = Io e x p ( - / ( ' n ) (6)
where n is the total number of molecules in a column of the gas which is given by :

n = fl C(x) dx
 Data Bank 525
and K" is the average attenuation coefficient which for a layer of the same thickness can be defined as
follows :

_1ln(~/~
/ £ = - - n \Io/# (7/

2.1. An analytical approach to simulate Ib,

The attenuation of solar radiation by the atmosphere is caused by two simultaneous processes : (i)
scattering by air molecules and aerosols, and (ii) absorption by 03, H20 and CO2 molecules. Taking
into account eqn (6), the process of attenuation can be expressed as :

Ibn = /on e x p ( - / 7 ~ N s - / 7 s t N t - No/7o --/7~Nc --/TwNw)m (8)

where Ns, Nt, No, No Xw are values which are proportional to the number of molecules of air, aerosols,
ozone, carbon-dioxide, and water vapour in the vertical air column, respectively. If, for example, Ns,
Nt, No, No and N . are given in moles, then/Ts,/Ts, are average molar extinction coefficients due to
Rayleigh and turbidity scattering, and /7o, /7o /Tw are average molar extinction coefficients due to
absorption by 03, CO2 and H20, and m is relative mass. F o r eqn (8), Ibn can be measured, Io. and m
can be easily calculated; Ns, Arc, and Nw can be calculated by using laws of kinetic theory and
thermodynamics ; No can be estimated [6], and only Nt is difficult to find. The transmittance due to
aerosols can be expressed by/~ngstr6m's turbidity equation :

za,;. = exp(--fl)o-"m) or "r, = exp(--fl2 "m) (9)

but according to our approach r~ = exp(-/~stNtm), it is obvious that N, is proportional to ft. But it
is possible to show that with an acceptable accuracy, fl is inversely proportional to visibility, V. F o r
this purpose, one can use the correlation between fl and visibility, V, given by Kasten [5] :

/3= (0 . 55 ) ,/3.912
t~---0.01162 ) [0.024(V--5)+1.132] (10)

Equation (10) can easily be transformed to:

,/3.959
fl = (0.55) t ~ - - --0.00028 V+0.0821)

If, for example, a = 1.3 (the usual case), then the equation further simplifies to :

1.8195
/3 V 0.00013 V+0.0377 (10a)

Since the second term of eqn (10a) is very small for usual range of visibilities, this equation can be
rewritten as follows :

1.8195
fl = ~ +0.0377 (10b)

Equation (10b) clearly shows an inverse proportion between/7 and V. Taking into account that Nt is
proportional to/3, one can rewrite eqn (8) as :
/ - T/7~' )
Ibn = Io. e x P t - - k , N s - --/7oNo --/7oNe --/TwNw.m (1 l)

where V is in km and/7~t is the modified extinction coefficient due to aerosols.

Now all the atmospheric variables in eqn (l 1) can be found, hence, all five extinction coefficients,
namely/Ts,/7~t,/70,/7o and/Tw, can be obtained by solving five linear equations shown below :
526 Data Bank

k,- Nsi + f~t + tn% V, o. +. t %, N, ¢~+ t, %~~ w, +__ _1l n_t ~,{_Ibn
- i - i - i
.,i: ~~ (12)
Vi m k,IoJ
where i = 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.
By applying Dalton's law: P = Z~n~kT and Boltzmann's distribution

n = no e x p ( - mgh~kT]

to the atmosphere, one can derive the following formulae for the variables Nw, N~, and Arc

Pw (P-Pw Pw ;Nc
M,..a) \ M~g /P-Pw" 4
Nw - Mwg ; Ns = \ Mag + wg/ = [~10.00031 (13)

where P and Pw are total air pressure, and partial pressure caused by H20, respectively ; Ma is average
molecular weight of dry air; Mw is molecular weight of water. The derivations of formulae (13) are
given in Appendix B. The thickness of the ozone layer for any day of a year for any location can be
estimated with the help of the equation of Van Heuklon [6] ; or it can be considered to be equal to
0.34 c m - - t h e standard value. Visibility (in km) is usually available at airports' meteorological stations.
If all the above five extinction coefficients are found, and with the knowledge of how to find Arc, No,
Ns, Nw and V, one can calculate Ib, for any moment and any location.

3. E X P E R I M E N T S A N D D I S C U S S I O N
To obtain extinction coefficients/~s,/~t,/~o,/~c, and kw, measurements of Ibn were taken at different
locations : Kabul (q~ = 34.5 °, A = 2100 m) ; Crimea (q5 = 45.2 °, A = 100 m) ; K h a r k o v (4) = 50 °,
A = 150 m) ; Moscow (~b = 55.72 °, A = 200 m) ; St Petersburg (q~ = 59.5 °, A = 50 m) ; and Mur-
mansk region (Polar zone : q5 = 67 °, A = 100 m). Some measurements were also taken in Gaborone,
Botswana (4) = - 2 4 . 5 °, A = 940 m). lb. was recorded by using an E P L A B pyrheliometer model N I P
with ST-1 solar tracker, or two Kipp & Zonen CC-10 sensors, and the Kipp & Zonen integrator.
Solutions of different systems of eqn (12) in which I~,, values were recorded for different values of air
mass, m, did not show any regularity in/~s, k~t, ko, k¢, and kw values. But solutions of different systems
of eqn (12) in which I{,n values were recorded for different meteorological conditions but for the same
m, reveal the following : (i)/~s,/~t, ko,/~, and/~w values do not show any dependence on meteorological
conditions; (ii) they decrease with an increase in air mass, m. The nature of this dependence is
explained by the nature of the definition of/£, formula (7).
Hence, to get the correct diurnal profile of Ibn in each particular case of simulation, one has to
correct the value of relative air mass, and the correction factor should increase with increasing air
mass, m. Analysis showed that the correction function for m must be taken in the form below :

f= exp( a(mn-mO)~m~ )exp,-[ a(m-m.)'~brn J (14)

where mo is air mass for 0z = 0; mn is air mass at n o o n ; m is the current air mass; a and b are
empirical coefficients. The first exponent correction factor corrects lb, for solar noon time (m = mn),
and the second corrects Ibn simulated for the current m. The first exponent correction factor is
necessary because/~s,/c~,,/~o,/~c, and/~w, extinction coefficients are found by using lb, values measured
at locations where 0z at solar noon is not equal to zero.
By choosing a and b, the simulated diurnal profile can be changed to fit the experimental one. Once
a and b are chosen, they can be used for any location. Hence Ibn at any location and for any particular
time, can be calculated with the formula :

Ibn : Io, exp ( -- NJ~s _ V-/~t-- Noko

- - N¢kc
- - N~kw
- )m'
\ (15)

where m' = m f
Relative air mass should be calculated by using the formula from Nijegorodov et al. [7, 8] :
 Data Bank 527
Table 1. Meteorological parameters and direct normal solar radiation recorded on 3 October 1995

Meteorological parameters Direct normal sol. rad. (W/m 2)

Time T P RH
(H) (°C) (mb) (%) V (km) Integrated Hourly Instant.

06:00 20.0 910 26.0 -- 20 20 80

07:00 21.0 910 26.0 20-25 351 331 540
08:00 22.5 910 25.5 2(~25 1029 678 750
09:00 24.0 910 25.0 20-25 1833 804 855
10:00 26.0 909 24.5 20 25 2721 888 905
11:00 28.2 910 24.0 25 30 3640 919 923
12:00 30.0 910 23.5 30-35 4560 620 935
13:00 31.0 909 23.0 55-60 5506 946 975
14:00 31.9 909 23.0 70-75 6492 986 985
15:00 32.2 909 23.0 7(~75 7462 970 940
16:00 32.3 908 22.5 70-75 8384 922 845
17:00 31.5 908 22.5 70-75 9167 783 680
18:00 30.0 908 22.0 -- 9679 512 190

m= [# H ¢ f ( H c f + 2r) + r 2 cosZ0z- rcos 0 ~

--
Hof eJ
¢~UA'RT)
• ' (16)

where : r = radius of the earth, 0z = zenith angle, Her = effective thickness of the atmosphere, & / = av-
erage molecular weight of air, g = acceleration due to gravity, T = absolute temperature (in K), and
A = altitude in metres. According to Nijegorodov et al. [8], Her can be found as Hef ~ 3.5/7, where
t7 = R T / ~ g is the average thickness of the atmosphere (i.e. the mathematical expectation for the
height of the atmosphere).
After careful analysis of experimental data obtained for different locations and different times of
the year and solving several sets of eqn (12) for the same value of m attenuation coefficients/~s,/~,,
/~o,/~, and/~w were found. Parameters a and b ofeqn (14) were chosen in order to correct the simulated
diurnal profile of Ibn SO that it would match the experimental one. Attenuation coefficients found,
with little error, can be used at any location from the North to the South Pole. To improve the
accuracy, empirical parameters a and b of eqn (14) could be adjusted for any particular location.
By using eqns (13 16) and values of attenuation coefficients obtained, a special computer program
to simulate instantaneous, hourly, and daily direct normal radiation, is developed.
To check the validity of the introduced model, instantaneous lb, was simulated for 3 October, 1995,
when the experimentally measured instantaneous Ibn showed a completely abnormal diurnal profile.
All meteorological parameters and integrated, hourly and instantaneous direct normal radiation
recorded on that particular day, are shown in Table 1. Experimental and simulated diurnal profiles
of instantaneous Ibn for 3 October 1995 are shown in Fig. 1. As one can see, the agreement between
the two curves is very good. The abnormal phenomenon observed on 3 October 1995 is explained by
a very sharp increase in visibility which happened immediately after solar noon.
Preliminary results of this work were presented in Istanbul, Turkey, at the Second International
Conference on New Energy Systems and Conversions [9], and in Cairo, Egypt, at The Renewable
Energy Conference and Workshop [10-12].

4. CONCLUSIONS
A new model to predict instantaneous direct normal radiation, introduced in this paper, requires
as input data only meteorological parameters such as temperature, pressure, relative humidity and
visibility. It can also be used to predict hourly, daily and even mean monthly-daily direct normal
528 Data Bank

I I
Gaborone
I October 3, 1995 I

I
4, =-24.4" I

If A--1000m
I
I
I
100
I
i
~ t I
I
I
7s .~
7 r I
jJ

/ !

o I
/ I
I

'[ ? ........... ~- I 25
I
I
P I
i
i
6:00 " 8:00 10:00 • 12:00 ' 14:00 " 16 00 " 18:00

TIME, H O U R S

Fig. 1. Experimental (1) and simulated (2) diurnal profiles of/bn for 3 October 1995. V is visibility.

solar radiation but in this case mean monthly meteorological parameters should be used. This model
provides an accuracy within 3 5% and can be used at any location from the Northern to the Southern
Pole. In combination with the new model for the instantaneous diffuse fraction defined as Id/Ib, the
model can be used for practical and scientific purposes [13]: (i) to predict hourly, daily direct beam,
diffuse and global solar radiation ; (ii) to estimate with good precision the efficiency of different solar
devices with concentrators without using special equipment for solar radiation measurements; (iii)
for the investigation of the effects of visibility, the ozone layer and the amount of carbon dioxide in
the atmosphere on solar radiation•

REFERENCES

1. Duffle, J. A. and Beckman, W. A., Solar engineerin9 of thermal processes, 2nd edn. John Wiley
and Sons, Inc., New York, U.S.A., 1991.
2. ASHRAE Handbook of Fundamentals, 1972, 385-443.
3. M/~chler, M. A. and Iqbal, H., A modification of ASHRAE clear sky irradiation model, ASHRAE
Trans• Part A, 1985, 21, 106-115.
4. Iqbal, M., An Introduction to Solar Radiation. Academic Press, New York, 1983.
5. Kasten, F., A new table and approximate formula for relative optical air mass. Arch. Meteorol.
Geophys. Bioklimatol Ser., 1966, B14, 206223.
6• Van Heuklon, T. K., Estimating atmospheric ozone for solar radiation models. Solar Energy,
1979, 22, 63 68.
7. Nijegorodov, N., Carlson, S. and Lekorwe, O., An improved formula for air mass and empirical
investigation of its validity• Renewable Energy, 1994, 5(II), 1517.
8. Nijegorodov, N. and Luhanga, P. V. C., Air mass: analytical and empirical treatment; an
improved formula for air mass. Renewable Eneryy, 1996, 7(1), 57 65.
9. Nijegorodov, N., A physical approach to simulate direct beam, diffuse and total instantaneous
solar radiation on an absorber plate, variov sly oriented at any location. Proceedings of the Second
International Conference on New Energy Systems and Conversions, Istanbul, Turkey, 1995, p. 211.
10. Nijegorodov, N., A new approach to predict direct normal instantaneous solar radiation at any
 D a t a Bank 529
location form the Northern to the Southern Pole. Abstracts of the Renewable Energy Conference
and Workshop, Cairo, Egypt, (14-18 April), 1996, p. 51.
11. Nijegorodov, N., Investigation of direct normal solar radiation and relative air mass at sunrise
and sunset in Gaborone. Abstracts of the Renewable Energy Conference and Workshop, Cairo,
Egypt, (14-18 April), 1996, p. 5..
12. Nijegorodov, N. and Devan, K. R. S., A new analytical-empirical model for the instantaneous
diffuse radiation. Abstracts of the Renewable Energy ConJerence and Workshop, Cairo, Egypt,
(14-18 April), 1996, p. 58.
13. Nijegorodov, N., Adedoyin, J. A. and Devan, K. R. S., A new analytical-empirical model for
the instantaneous diffuse radiation and experimental investigation of its validity. Renewable
Energy, 1997, 11(3), 341 350.

APPENDIX A

A1. Kt = Ko+Kw+Kc+K~+K~, where Kt is the total attenuation coefficient.

A2. Ko = -ln(%) to is transmittance by ozone
Kw = - In (rw) rw is transmittance by water vapour
Kc = -- In (rc) rc transmittance by CO2
Ks = - I n (rr) rr is transmittance by Rayleigh scattering
K,~ = - In (r,) ~ is aerosol transmittance
r~ = r e is transmittance by gases, chiefly CO2
Empirical formulae for all transmittances are given in [3]
A3. ro = I-[O.1611U3(1.O+ I39.48U3)-°3°35-0.002715U3(1.0+0.044U3+0.0003U 2) i]
U3 = lm~ ; I is the thickness of the ozone layer in cm in the vertical direction ; m~ is relative air
mass at sea level.
A4. Zw = 1-2.4959U~[(1.O+79.034UO°6s28+6.385U,]
U~ = wm~ ; w = 0.493(H~/T) exp ( 2 6 . 2 3 - 5416/T) ; Hr is relative humidity, as a fraction.
A5. rc = exp ( - 0 . 0 1 2 7 m °26) : ma = m~(P,/Ps) ; m, is air mass at altitude A, P, is air pressure at
altitude A, P~ is air pressure at sea level.
A6. ~ = exp[--0.0903m°84(1.0+m~--m~°l)]
A7. ~ = (0.12445c~-0.0162)+(1.003-0.125~)exp[--/3m~(1.089c~+0.5123)]; usually c~ = 1.3, and
/3 = (0.55)~(3.912/V-0.01162)[0.02472(V-5)+ 1.132]; Vis visibility in km.

APPENDIX B

B1. According to Kinetic theory the pressure due to water vapour is given by :

Pw = n ~ k T (B1)
where n~v is the number of molecules of water per cubic metre at a given location. The total number
of molecules of water in a vertical column of the atmosphere can be found using Boltzmann's formula :

N ~ = n ~ v fo ~ e x p - - ( kmwgh
- f - ) dh (B2)

where : mw is mass of a water molecule, g is acceleration due to gravity. Taking into account eqn
(B1), one can get

t Pw
NH,O --
mwg "
The number of moles of water in the vertical column is equal to
530 Data Bank
Pw Pw
N w --
mwgNA Mwg
_ _

where NA is Avogadro's number, Mw is molecular weight of water.

B2. Using the same approach and Dalton's law, one can easily show that

=
(P--PW+~wg) and N c = ( ~/ P) 0- -. 0Pw\
003 14

where, P is the total air pressure, and P - Pw is the pressure of dry air, M~ is average molecular weight
of dry air, N~ is the total number of moles of all the gases in the vertical column, Nc is the number of
moles of C02 in the vertical column.