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MCR3U Culminating Assessment

Instructions:

• All questions for Tasks #1 and #2 are to be hand-written and

answered on separate paper
• Task #3 is to be created using some form of presentation
software (Powerpoint, Prezi, etc…) and submitted electronically
• Show all steps in your Mathematical solutions
• You will upload your work to Google Classroom
(unless otherwise specified by your subject teacher)

Tasks:

• Task #1: Due June 5th, 2020 /30 Marks

• Task #2: Due June 12th, 2020 /40 Marks

• Task #3: Due June 17th, 2020 /30 Marks

Total: /100 Marks

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TASK #1 – Modelling the Spread – Due Friday June 5th

/30 marks

The Situation
It’s 2020, and The World Health Organization has categorized COVID-19 as a Global
Pandemic. Our leaders around the world are encouraging us to stay home and practice
social distancing. This virus is spreading from infected person to person and as experts
work on vaccines, treatment, and understanding how this coronavirus works, we need
to do our part to slow it down.

Your Role
You are to take on the role of an “ Expert Mathematical Epidemiologist ”. You are
being asked to help solve problems related to the Global Pandemic.

For this Task you will consider some exponential functions to model the spread of this
virus and think of some ways to slow the spread. For the first 3 questions, navigate to
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and scroll down to see the charts to help
you answer the italicized prompts and to calculate the follow up questions.

* Exponential Functions have variables as exponents. (ie 𝑦 = 3 ∙ 7𝑥 )

DON’T FORGET

* Exponential Growth: 𝑓(𝑡) = 𝑎(1 + 𝑟)𝑡

* Exponential Decay: 𝑓(𝑡) = 𝑎(1 − 𝑟)𝑡
* 𝑟 = growth or decay factor
* 𝑓(𝑡) = final amount
* 𝑎 = initial amount
* 𝑡 = time
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1) Worldwide

[3 marks]

Total Worldwide Coronavirus Cases: 6 657 393

Total Recovered: 3 168 921 Total Deaths: 387 913

Use this data to determine the percent of recovered patients:

Use this data to determine the percent of death from infection:

Why don’t these percentages total to 100%?

2) Italy

[2 marks]

Total Italian Coronavirus Cases:

Recovered: Deaths:

Use this data to determine the percent of recovered patients:

Why do you think this rate is lower than the worldwide rate?

3) Canada

[1 mark]

Total Canadian Coronavirus Cases:

Total Recovered: Population of Canada: 37,590,000

What percent of the Canadian population is currently infected by coronavirus?

The percent of the total population infected might seem low, but it’s important to
understand that this virus is capable of spreading exponentially. And exponential growth
is POWERFUL. Let’s consider a projection of possible virus spread…
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How quickly a virus spreads from person to person can vary but COVID-19 is
particularly easy to spread. Without proper precautions each infected person might
infect 2-3 others. Let’s do a few simple projections based on hypothetical infection rates.

4) If only one person is infected to start, and each person infects on average 2
other people every week, this is a 200% growth rate of infected people ( r = 2 )

(a) Create an exponential growth formula to represent the total number of cases after ‘t’
number of weeks [2 marks]

(b) Use your formula to complete the below chart to determine the number of cases
after each week: [2 marks]

Week (t) # of cases

0 1
1
2
3
4
5

(c) Use your formula to find the number of cases after 10 weeks [2 marks]

(d) Approximate how many weeks it will take for the entire population of Canada
(37,590,000 people) to be infected using your formula (Use trial/error to solve for ‘ t ‘)
[2 marks]

5. On May 22nd the total # of confirmed Canadian cases of Covid-19 was 82,480

a) The first confirmed case of Covid-19 in Canada was on March 5th (78 days prior to
May 22nd) determine the daily growth rate ‘ r ‘ of confirmed cases of the virus by
creating and solving an exponential growth formula [4 marks]

b) Using the growth rate you came up with from the previous question, calculate how
many more days will pass from May 22nd until the total number of Canadians infected
will reach 5 million (Use trial and error with your formula to solve for ‘ t ‘) [2 marks]

It’s important to note that this is a very simplified mathematical model, as infection
curves cannot be perfect exponential functions for reasons that will become clearer in
the coming tasks. Also, the infection rate can fluctuate immensely based on each
individual’s activity, cleanliness, immune systems, and scope of interactions
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6) Exponential Regression: The chart below shows actual worldwide cases of

COVID-19 since January 22nd, 2020.

Week
Cases of
(since
infection
1/22/20)
0 580
1 7813
4 75,184
6 93,016
8 198,238

Watch the following video on how to use exponential regression on the online
graphing website Desmos.com:

http://y2u.be/O-hx7i3TkEg

a) Navigate to Desmos.com and use the chart above and exponential regression to
create an exponential equation to model the data. State the equation [1 mark]

Note: Don’t forget to change the scale of the y-axis on Desmos if you want to see
the graph. Also, an important piece of information omitted in the video is that you
need to check the box that says ‘log mode’

(b) According to your equation, what is the rate of increase of cases of infection per
week? Was this higher or lower than you expected and why? [1 mark]

(c) If the trend continued past week #8, approximately how many people globally will be
infected on week #19 (June 3rd, 2020)? [2 marks]

(d) What percentage of the total global population is this? [1 mark]

(e) What sorts of measures do you think would be most effective in reducing the growth
rate of Global infections? Be sure to support your position with
sources/mathematical data [5 marks]
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TASK 2: Flatten the Curve! – Due Friday June 12th /40 marks
One of the goals of epidemiologists is to ‘flatten the curve’. You may have heard a lot
of talk about this lately in the news. Look at the following image. It shows the effect of
social distancing in two cities during the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic:

Philadelphia did not start social distancing until one month after their first case. Look
how high the spike of deaths is. St. Louis started social distancing two days after their
first case. Look at the curve, it lasts longer than Philadelphia but the deaths are much
lower.
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This is important so that hospitals don’t get overrun, and patients get the care they
need. See below pictures that shows this point:
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Your Task: Refer to the following graphs and help answer the problems presented:

CITY “A”

The Red parabolic curve represents the likely path of a first wave of the number of new
cases per week of Covid-19 for “City A” in your district if no preventative measures are
taken (note that number of weekly cases eventually exceed the Healthcare system
capacity) The Green curve represents one of the possible paths if some preventative
measures are taken (note that it remains below the Healthcare system capacity)

1) You are to first come up with a quadratic equation for BOTH the Red Curve and the
Green Curve See video for help: http://y2u.be/Fmte_dkjHys [2 marks]

2) Do each of these curves represent a function? Why or why not? [1 mark]

3) What are the domain and range of each curve in the context of this scenario? [4 marks]

4) What horizontal and vertical translations (movement left/right, up/down) were

applied to the Red curve to arrive at the flattened Green curve? (refer to movement of
the vertex point) [1 mark]

5) Has the Red Curve been horizontally stretched or compressed to arrive at the
flattened Green curve and why? [1 mark]
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The next graph represents the likely path of the number of new cases per week of
Covid-19 for “City B” in your district if some preventative measures are taken, but then
eventually removed (note the data follows a sinusoidal pattern) City B had already done
some testing, and initially found 450 people to be infected:

CITY “B”

[2 marks each]
6) What are the domain and range of this function in the context of this scenario if the
function continues this pattern indefinitely?
7) What is the equation of axis of the sinusoidal function, and what does it represent?
8) What is the amplitude of the sinusoidal function, and what does it represent?
9) What is the period of the function? What does it represent?
10) What is the equation of this sinusoidal function in terms of y = sinx?
11) Would decreasing the period length for the function allow the function’s maximum
value to fall below the Healthcare System Capacity line? Why or why not?
12) What mathematical transformations could be applied to allow the function’s
maximum value to fall below the Healthcare System Capacity? Identify at least 2.
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The next Graph represents “City C” who’s curve predicts a very high level of
infection within the first few days:

CITY “C”

As you can see from the Graph, City C’s Healthcare System Capacity is 100 cases per
day, and their curve follows the quadratic equation y = 4 x perfectly. Your goal is to try
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and invert this curve to reduce the level of infection.

13) What is the domain and range of y = 4 x in the context of this scenario? [2 marks]
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14) Given this current model, how long would it take before the new daily infected cases
reached a minimum of 400 per day? [2 marks]

15) Calculate the equation of the inverse of this function algebraically, see here for help
if needed: http://y2u.be/8r3XQoQjNTI [2 marks]

16) What is the domain and range of the inverse function in the context of this scenario?
[2 marks]

17) If the City were able to limit its spread to follow the equation of the inverse of the
original curve, how many days would it take before the City would see a minimum
daily increase of 6 new cases per day? [3 marks]
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The next diagram shows an overhead view of “City D” as it relates to how far it is from
two Cellphone towers (Tower A and Tower B) City D is hoping to utilize contact-tracing
via Cell Phones in order to help fight Covid-19 (https://www.pcmag.com/news/what-is-
cell-phone-contact-tracing)

In order for the Cell phone signals to be sufficiently strong, City D needs to be at least
90 KM in distance from at least one of the towers.

18) Should you use Cosine Law or Sine Law to solve this problem and why? [1 mark]

19) Is City D at least 90 KM away from one of the towers? [5 marks]

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Task #3: Questions and Answers – Due Wed June 17th

/30 marks

As a Mathematical Epidemiologist, you are expected to answer questions from reporters

on a semi-regular basis via press conferences. You want to be sure you are prepared to
answer what questions may be presented to you regarding the Pandemic.

To begin preparing, watch the following video which describes the concept of
‘mathematical modelling’: http://y2u.be/xHtsuOB-TPw

Next, refer to the following video regarding exponential functions and their application to
the Coronavirus: http://y2u.be/Kas0tIxDvrg

Part A – Preparing for Known Questions

You are to prepare responses to the following questions which you know will be
asked at your next press conference [3 marks each]

1. What is a mathematical model and why can they be useful?

2. What is the difference between an exponential and logistic curve?

3. Describe the meaning of an ‘inflection point’ as it relates to a logistic curve (be

sure to explain how it relates to the concept of ‘slope’)

4. Finally, do you believe that the growth of Canadian cases of Covid-19 have
reached an inflection point? Do some research to support your position and
provide sources.

Your Task: Prepare responses for each of the above questions using a medium of your
choice (Powerpoint, Prezi, etc…) Each question’s response needs to be at least one
slide in length. Be sure to provide sources if required.
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Part B – Anticipating Reporter Questions

As part of your press conference, you will be expected to answer some questions by
reporters.

Your Task: You are to create 3 additional questions you anticipate you may be
asked during your press conference regarding the Pandemic, and you are to prepare
responses to these questions using a medium of your choice (Powerpoint, Prezi, etc…)
Be sure to use proper Mathematical terminology and give appropriate sources where
needed.

Your questions can be anything related to Covid-19 (ie - analyzing prior data, contact
tracing, predicting future growth paths, flattening the curve, comparing data from
different countries, etc…) Keep in mind the goal is for your questions/responses to
relate to what you have learned in the MCR3U course [6 marks each]

You may refer to the following websites which have a multitude of current data to help
you brainstorm what your questions/answers could be:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.covid-19canada.com/

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19.html

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/data-and-analysis/infectious-disease/covid-19-data-
surveillance/covid-19-data-tool

Again, each question’s response needs to be at least one slide in length. Your
submitted presentation should include both Part A and Part B of Task #3.

The evaluation of your responses/slides will be linked to your ability to address

key points of the question, clarity of responses, use of correct mathematical
terminology, effectiveness and organization of presentation slides, and
appropriate use and quality of sources to support your position.