Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Preface
The Economic Journey : 2008
Indian Economy
Real Sector Price Scenario
From expectations of soft landing From the fear of high inflation to the
Outlook : 2009-10
to fears of a slowdown early signs of deflation
Money & Finance External sector
From a stance of monetary tightening to From a realistic export target of US$ Some Concerns
monetary softening 200 bn to missing it by a few miles to Growth
Economy Outlook 2009-10
Preface
In the past year, the Indian as well as the global economy there are some inherent strengths within the Indian
has witnessed a very high degree of uncertainty and economy, which have spawned the idea of its 'decoupling'
volatility. While the year began on a reasonably optimistic from the global economy. While it is debatable whether
note - particularly for the Indian economy - sentiment was economies such as India will remain completely insulated
completely reversed as the year drew to a close. Just to from the negative growth prospects of the global
underscore this aspect, the D&B Business Optimism Index1 economy, there are some factors that might play a
for Q4 2008 fell by over 28% as compared to the previous mitigating role in the face of the spreading contagion. The
year, when it had actually risen by as much as 9% in Q4 presence of a large domestic population, along with the
2007. At the end of 2007, when we had put down our increase in its per capita income on the back of sustained
expectations for the coming year, we had stated talent economic growth over the past few years is expected to
crunch and the availability of well trained human resources provide enough of a demand stimulus to ensure continued
would be the key theme of the coming year. Of course, that economic growth for India. Further, a strong saving and
expectation has been completely belied in the past 3 - 4 investment rate will contribute towards shortening the
months, as news of retrenchment, job cuts and slowdown length and severity of the current slowdown, and also
in hiring across various segments of the Indian economy towards a faster revival, when the economic turnaround
streams in. This sharp shift underscores the somewhat grey sets in.
theme of the year gone by, as the global financial crisis
turned into a global economic slowdown, impacting the It has become imperative for businesses to track the
fortunes of the Indian economy along its way. economic environment on an ongoing basis when
changes come in such a dynamic fashion; when
At Dun & Bradstreet, we have had to revise our forecast of perceptions on where macroeconomic risks lie are so
GDP growth for FY09 as many as three times in the past 8 numerous and changing so often; when the immediate
months, which again highlights the sharp and sudden business environment becomes so closely linked with
change in the variables that affect and impact the events that are largely beyond our immediate control.
economic environment. As the economy battled with high
rates of inflation, followed by strict monetary tightening, This report has been prepared with the idea of providing a
liquidity crunch and a deteriorating global economic forecast of key macroeconomic variables, which will
environment, among others, the outlook for growth determine the course of the business environment over
considerably worsened. the next fiscal. Since an understanding of the future is
impossible without a careful study of the past, the report
The outlook for the global economy continues to remain also summarises the events of the year gone by. This not
bleak. IMF has estimated that world economic growth will only provides a roadmap for how we have reached where
fall to 0.5% in 2009, which is the lowest rate since World we are, but also provides significant clues for what needs
War II. The advanced economies are expected to contract by to be done for us to get back on the high growth trajectory.
2 percent in 2009, while growth in emerging and
developing economies is expected to slow sharply from The coming financial year will bring significant growth
over 6% in 2008 to just a little over 3% in 2009. The global challenges for the wider economy, and of course individual
economy is expected to experience gradual recovery in businesses as well. Timely and appropriate policy action
2010, when growth is estimated at 3%, as the impact of will be the key towards managing growth at the macro
expansionary fiscal and monetary policies starts to set in. level, while a keen sense of attention to detail in terms of
cost management, process control and revenue focus will
It is inevitable that the fortunes of the Indian economy will determine survival of individual businesses. We, at D&B
be impacted by the growth prospects of the world India, hope that the review and forecasts contained in this
economy as export demand continues to fall, and external report will aid businesses in planning and charting their
financing becomes progressively constrained. However, growth path over the next year.
1
The Business Optimism Index (BOI) instituted by Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) India is a measure of business confidence on the future outlook for the ensuing quarter.
1
Economy Outlook 2009-10
The Indian economy registered around 9.0% growth Slowing Pace of the Indian Economy
during FY04-FY07 and this growth rate gave rise to hopes 11.0 10.6 14.0
% Y-O-Y Growth
% Y-O-Y Growth
10.2
of structural shift in economic growth. With such 10.0
9.8
9.3
9.7 12.0
9.1 9.1 8.9 8.8 10.0
a significant growth, debates on a probable overheating of 9.0
7.9 8.0
8.0 7.6
the Indian economy started somewhere towards the end 6.0
7.0
of 2006. However, owing to a changing dynamics, concerns 6.0
4.0
5.3 2.0
of overheating (till start of 2008) were replaced with 5.0 0.0
concerns of the Indian economy moving into slowdown 4.0 -2.0
Jan-Mar 06
Apr-Jun 06
Jul-Sep 06
Oct-Dec 06
Jan-Mar 07
Apr-Jun 07
Jul-Sep 07
Oct-Dec 07
Jan-Mar 08
Apr-Jun 08
Jul-Sep 08
Oct-Dec 08
2
Economy Outlook 2009-10
Real Sector
costs through price rise to customers given the subdued investors, due to the worsening of global financial crisis in
demand conditions. Cement, construction and steel the latter half of 2008, drained the external financing
industries, more specifically, witnessed significant route for the corporate sector. The bearish sentiment in the
moderation in growth, owing to elevated international domestic stock markets due to FII outflows also made it
prices of inputs such as crude oil, coke and coal. difficult for the corporate sector to raise funds from this
avenue. The freezing of external as well as internal mode of
Besides, demand was subdued in real estate and consumer financing, coupled with subdued demand conditions has
durables sectors on account of high interest rates. The RBI impeded investment growth. This was further reflected in
further hiked key policy rates in Jan 2007 amidst rising the substantial moderation in growth of ‘basic metal and
concerns of overheating of the economy; this high interest alloy’ industries and ‘machinery and equipment, other
rate regime lasted till mid-2008. High interest regime and than transport equipment’ industries, which pulled down
consequent moderation in retail credit off take caused growth in capital goods sector to 8.7% during Jan-Dec 08
deceleration in credit-funded consumption demand. As a from 19.6% during Jan-Dec 07. Further, a significant
result, growth in private final consumption expenditure slowdown in exports (particularly of textiles, leather and
slowed down to 7.0% during Jan-Dec 08 as against 7.9% fur products, and gems and jewellery) and weak domestic
during the corresponding period of the previous year. demand conditions curbed production, leading to
The combined effect of decelerated domestic demand, downsizing of labour in many industries.
elevated input costs, and high interest rates was primarily The services sector, which has been the key growth driver
felt by the manufacturing sector, with as many as 14 out of over the last five years, has also started showing signs
17 major industry groups witnessing lower growth during of moderation, reflecting the combined impact of elevated
Jan-Dec 08. Domestic industrial activity also slowed down fuel prices (till Aug 08), high interest rates, and global
as a result of downturn in manufacturing sector as evident economic slowdown. Growth in services sector averaged
from the sharp slowdown in the average growth of Index at 10.2% during Jan-Dec 08 as against 10.4% during
of Industrial Producton (IIP) to 4.2% during Jan-Dec 08 as Jan-Dec 07.
compared with 9.9% during Jan-Dec 07.
The RBI took a number of monetary easing and liquidity
Furthermore, investment demand slowed down in the enhancing measures since Sep 08 to mitigate the impact
economy with rising borrowing cost (a result of monetary of the global economic meltdown on the Indian economy.
tightening measures) and weakening business confidence The government also announced a slew of fiscal measures
amidst slowing consumption demand. Global liquidity to stimulate demand, which included an additional plan
crunch and rising risk aversion among international expenditure of up to Rs 200 bn in the current fiscal, an
additional allocation of Rs 14 bn to clear entire backlog in
D&B's Composite Business Optimism Index
220.0
Technology Upgradation Fund Scheme (TUFS), an across-
200.0 the-board cut of 4.0% in the ad valorem Cenvat rate,
Index Value
Apr-Jun 06
Jul-Sep 06
Oct-Dec 06
Jan-Mar 07
Apr-Jun 07
Jul-Sep 07
Oct-Dec 07
Jan-Mar 08
Apr-Jun 08
Jul-Sep 08
Oct-Dec 08
Jan-Mar 09
3
Economy Outlook 2009-10
4
Economy Outlook 2009-10
domestic markets
liqu
window by banks.
mea to th
14
sure
%
12
s in system
10
domestic interest rates, lack of fund availability, waning
s
8
6 domestic demand, and recessionary conditions in
4 developed world. While the average growth in IIP during
Q3FY09 turned negative to -0.2%, growth in exports
4-Jan-08
25-Jan-08
15-Feb-08
7-Mar-08
28-Mar-08
18-Apr-08
9-May-08
30-May-08
20-Jun-08
11-Jul-08
1-Aug-08
22-Aug-08
12-Sep-08
3-Oct-08
24-Oct-08
14-Nov-08
5-Dec-08
26-Dec-08
5
Economy Outlook 2009-10
Price Scenario
From the fear of high inflation to the early signs of deflation
During the first eight months of 2008, the major concern
on the price front was the unprecedented rise in WPI WPI Inflation of fuel, power, light & lubricant
inflation. A major breather came towards the end of 2008,
20
as prices started moving southwards. However, at this % Y-O-Y Growth
18
16
juncture, another concern that started emerging was that 14
12
of a possible deflation - with prices of certain commodities 10
8
slipping into a negative territory. The inflationary 6
4
pressures that had gradually started building up since Dec 2
0
07 were primarily driven by supply-side bottlenecks, which -2
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
were observed in the international as well as domestic
markets. Unprecedented rise in global commodity prices
Source: Ministry of Commerce
(especially crude oil) that caught the entire world
unawares had also cascaded to India. Therefore, the year (Feb 14, 2008) and then subsequently in Jun 08 (Jun 4,
2008 witnessed significant monetary tightening by the 2008) when the prices of international crude oil crossed
RBI accompanied by fiscal measures by the Government in US$ 100 and US$ 130 per barrel mark, respectively. This
a bid to contain rising inflation. The policy stance, however, added to the inflationary pressures in the economy,
changed during the last three months of 2008 as inflation causing WPI inflation to cross the RBI's tolerance level of 5-
rate began to ebb in tandem with receding global 5.5% in mid Feb 08 and by Jun 08, inflation was at a double-
commodity prices. digit level. Inflation fuel group also surged from 3.78% in
Jan 08 to 16.28% in Jun 08. Inflation continued its march
At the start of the year, surge in food and fuel prices placed northwards and reached its peak of 12.72% (a figure last
inflationary pressures on several commodities, causing the seen in April 1995) during Aug 08 as the second round
WPI inflation to breach the 4% mark. A potential threat, impacts of the oil price hike began to unfold.
however, was the steady rise in oil prices. The unabated rise
in global oil prices and the resultant increase in under The fuel price hike led to an increase in input costs and
recoveries of oil companies and fiscal burden (due to transport costs for both the agricultural and industrial
issuance of oil bonds) necessitated the Government to sectors. Prices of industrial fuels such as naphtha and
increase the domestic prices of petrol, diesel and LPG twice bitumen, (which are not subsidised) also soared. Fertiliser
within a span a five months. The Central Government prices also spiked owing to higher prices of raw materials
decided to increase domestic fuel prices first in Feb 08 such as, natural gas, fuel oil and naphtha, in turn putting
an upward pressure on prices of agricultural commodities.
WPI Inflation
Demand-supply imbalances coupled with the knock-on
14 12.7
effects of increase in fuel prices led to a spurt in Food
12
articles inflation to 6.56% in Aug 08 from 2.1% in Jan 08.
% Y-O-Y Growth
10 8.8
The prices of Non-Food articles also soared, thereby
8
causing the Primary articles inflation to rise from 4.0% in
6 4.9
Jan 08 to 11.0% in Aug 08.
4
6
Economy Outlook 2009-10
Price Scenario
Inflation in Major Categories WPI Inflation of Edible Oil & Oil Cakes
13.5
11.5
55 52.1
% Y-O-Y Growth
9.5 50
% Y-O-Y Growth
45
7.5 40
35
30
5.5 25
19.4
20
3.5 15
10
2.6
1.5 5
0
-5 -5.5
-0.5
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
-10 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08
Primary Articles Fuel Group Manufactured Products WPI of Oil cakes (wt 1.42) WPI of Edible oils (wt 2.76)
inflation more than doubled to reach 11.7% in Aug 08 from from Dec 6, 08), the fuel group inflation plummeted to a
4.15% at the start of the year. The contribution of Basic territory of deflation during Dec 08.
metal alloys and alloy products to overall inflation surged
In tandem, inflation in manufactured food products also
from 5.5% in Jan 08 to 15.0% in Aug 08.
fell from 13.75% during Sep 08 to 3.74% during Dec 08, led
In response to mounting inflationary pressures, monetary by WPI of oil cakes which also entered into deflation (WPI
tightening measures were adopted by the RBI in order to for oil cakes fell from a high of 52.08% in Jun 08 to -5.48% in
curb inflationary expectations. The Central Government Dec 08). This in turn dragged inflation in manufactured
also took various measures such as increasing food products to 6.85% in Dec 08 (as against 10.86% during
procurement, ban on export of some commodities, the Sep-08). However, there has been no respite from the
suspension of futures trading in soya oil, chana, rubber, surging prices of Primary articles. WPI for primary articles
potato as well as various fiscal incentives to raise supplies has in fact surged to a high of 12.26% during Oct 08, led by
of steel and cement, etc in order to curb inflationary rising primary food article prices, and still remains at
pressures. elevated levels (11.91% in Dec 08).
From Aug 08, global commodity prices started receding Given that the impact of fiscal measures taken by the
and this provided some respite to the overall price Government to rein in prices is likely to come into effect
situation in the economy. Thus, driven by receding with a lag, prices of primary food articles are expected to
international commodity prices viz., crude oil (global oil moderate after a couple of months. This coupled with the
prices plunged to US$ 53.24 during Nov-08 from a peak of better production prospects for the Rabi season is
US$ 147 per barrel during Jul-08), metals and food articles, expected to moderate inflation in primary food articles in
the headline inflation began to moderate since Sep 08. It the near future. This apart, the recent cut in prices of petrol
receded from its above 12.0% level to touch 6.43% during and diesel (Dec and Jan 08) as well as a 4% cut in ad
Dec 08. With declining global oil prices, prices of imported valorem Cenvat rate might result in price reduction across
mineral oils, particularly aviation turbine fuel, naphtha the board. In fact, rapid deceleration in WPI in the last few
and furnace oil (which are not administered) also months and with some of the commodities expected to
witnessed a substantial decline. The significant witness deflationary trends, concerns of deflation in the
moderation in mineral oil prices led to a reduction in fuel headline inflation looms large in the near term.
group inflation. Inflation in minerals oil declined to -1.60%
in Dec 08 from the high levels of 27.5% in July 08. Further,
with the sustained fall in global oil prices and the cut in
prices of petrol and diesel by the Government (effective
7
Economy Outlook 2009-10
External Sector
From a realistic export target of US$ 200 bn to missing it by a few miles
The year that passed witnessed extreme volatility in competitiveness. In rupee terms exports increased by just
commodity prices, especially in global crude oil, sharp 24.59% (y-o-y). The decline in export earnings affected
movement in exchange rate, as the rupee appreciated many exporters from sectors such as textiles and
during the initial months and depreciated steeply since garments, agricultural products, engineering goods and
May, and a financial crisis that dented global growth. chemicals.
Predictably, these factors carried mixed implications for
In view of the fact that the rupee which was already
India's external sector.
appreciating since last year and was expected to further
During the first eight months of 2008, India's merchandise strengthen during the course of the year, the Central
trade remained resilient, with imports growing at a higher Government announced an extension of certain
rate than exports. The government set an export target of incentives under the Annual Supplement to Foreign Trade
US$ 200 bn for FY09 taking into account the robust growth Policy, 2008 in order to soften the impact of rupee
in trade; however, the unexpected turn of events that have appreciation on exports. Some measures that were
changed the course of exports make this target seem envisaged to provide support included: extension of
implausible. During the first four months of 2008, interest rate subvention to sectors affected by rupee
exporters had to endure lower realisation in rupee terms appreciation and to SMEs for one more year; extension of
due to steep rupee appreciation; although the rupee income tax benefit for one more year beyond 2009, and
depreciated thereafter, exporters could not reap benefits cutback in customs duty from 5% to 3% payable under
of the same because the global financial crisis had by then Export Promotion Capital Goods Scheme (EPCG).
ramified into a global economic crisis. Demand conditions
Meanwhile, exporters had taken recourse to the forwards
turned weak amongst India's key trading partners and the
market to cover their contracts, which were either US$
global economy witnessed a crisis of confidence. India's
denominated or in currencies other than the US$, to hedge
exports lost momentum since Sep 08 and declined for the
against currency risk. However, due to a turnaround of
consecutive months of Oct , Nov and Dec 08.
market conditions - a rise in oil importer-led dollar demand
Further, import growth also witnessed moderation (but amidst surging global crude oil prices, huge FII outflows
less than exports) during the same period reflecting the and a bearish trend witnessed in the domestic stock
slowdown in the Indian economy as well. As imports grew markets and strengthening of the US Dollar against major
more than exports it led to widening of the trade deficit global currencies – the rupee witnessed a steep
which in turn exerted pressure on the current account depreciation since May 08, even touching a five year low of
balance. Further, led by record net outflows in portfolio 50.65 (intra-day) during Dec 08.
investment reflecting the impact of global financial
Export in Dollar Terms vs Rupee Terms
turmoil, BOP recorded a deficit during the second quarter
50
of FY09.
% Y-O-Y Growth
40
30
Exports, in fact had registered a robust growth of 35.7% (in
20
dollar terms) during Jan-Apr 08 as compared with 18.37%
10
during the same period last year. However, this period of 0
rapid growth in exports in dollar terms was marked by -10
Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08
8
Economy Outlook 2009-10
External Sector
During May-Dec 08, the rupee had in fact depreciated by Oil & Non-Oil Imports (US$ Terms)
19.85%. Although it provided some cushion to exporters, it
might have minimised the positive impact for those who 140
% Y-O-Y Growth
120
had hedged their foreign currency exposure. 100
80
60
Although export growth moderated since May, it 40
Dec-08
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
exports grew by 27.32% (US$ terms) as against 18.04% -20
-40
during the same period last year; however, export growth
during May 08 dropped to 27.62% as compared with Petroleum crude & products imports Non-POL items imports
India's Trade Balance Surpluses in the capital account balance were able to
70 0 offset the current account deficit and led to BOP surpluses
% Y-O-Y Growth (US$ terms)
60 -2000
50
between Jan-Jun 08; however, capital account started to
-4000
40 contract, especially since Apr 08, owing to volatile
US$ mn
-6000
30
-8000 movement of capital flows. Under net capital flows,
20
10
-10000 portfolio investment has recorded net outflows while
0 -12000
inflows under foreign direct investments (FDI) which
- -10 -14000
- -20 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08
-16000
comprises of equity, reinvested earnings and inter-
corporate loans had been optimistic reflecting
Export Import Trade balance - RHS Government's continuing liberalisation measures to
Source: Ministry of Commerce attract FDI.
9
Economy Outlook 2009-10
External Sector
Current Account Balance 20 Moderating Capital Inflows 40
30
35
20 15
30
10 10
25
US$ bn
US$ bn
US$ bn
0
5 20
-10
15
-20 0
10
-30 -5 Q1 FY08 Q2 FY08 Q3 FY08 Q4 FY08 Q1 FY09 Q2 FY09 5
-40 Q1 FY08 Q2 FY08 Q3 FY08 Q4 FY08 Q1 FY09 Q2 FY09
-10 0
-50
Merchandise trade Net invisibles Current account FDI Portfolio investment ECB Capital account-RHS
Portfolio investments (primarily comprising foreign A sample study by the Department of Commerce for 121
institutional investors' investments (FIIs) and American export-related companies (for Aug-Oct 08) revealed
Depository Receipts (ADRs)/Global Depository Receipts decline in jobs following the slowdown in some export
(GDRs)) continued to witness net outflows due to large sectors. The deteriorating global economic environment
sales of equities by FIIs in the Indian stock market and was manifest in the decline in exports for the consecutive
slowdown in net inflows under ADRs/GDRs due to drying- three months of Oct 08 (-12.11%), Nov 08 (-9.89%) and
up of liquidity in the overseas markets. Further, External Dec (-1.05%). Imports growth also moderated significantly
Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) also contracted since Apr 08 to 10.57% during Oct 08, 6.11% in Nov 08 and 8.85% in
due to turmoil in the global financial markets and the Dec 08. With significant moderation in imports, the trade
ensuing global credit crunch. Thus, during Jul-Sep 08, a deficit narrowed marginally to US$ 10.53 bn in Oct 08 and
deficit of US$ 4.7 bn was seen in BOP for the first time in US$ 10.06 bn in Nov 08 as compared to US$ 10.6 bn in
three years (excluding valuation effects). This deficit which Sep 08 and significantly to US$ 7.6 bn in Dec 08.
also reflects the foreign exchange reserves have suffered
In the wake of slowing demand and elevated credit risk to
from the depreciation of major currencies including rupee
exporters coupled with non availability of finance, the RBI
against the US dollar. As the result the valuation loss
and the Government have taken a slew of measures to
(as calculated by RBI) amounted to US$ 20.9 bn during
ensure an adequate flow of credit to the exporters. These
Apr-Sep 08 as compared to valuation gain of US$ 8.1 bn
measures, which include interest rate subvention for
during Apr-Sep 07.
labour-intensive exports, back-up guarantee for ECGC
As 2008 drew to a close, the financial crisis turned deeper loans to ensure exporters are not denied loans for trading
and protracted, and its ripple effects were felt in the real with risky markets, series of tax incentives and a refinance
sector of various economies. In such a scenario increased facility through EXIM bank, are expected to arrest decline
exporter’s risk on credit given to buyers further added to in export growth. However, given the slackening demand
the woes of the exporters. According to the Federation of in overseas market, these measures are unlikely to make a
Indian Exporters (FIEO), insurance firms hiked premium marked improvement in exports. Thus, the realistic target
rates by 25-30% for export credit insurance covers. of US$ 200 bn for FY09 (which was fixed at start of the year)
Moreover unwillingness of Indian banks to accept Letter of is feared to be missed by a few miles.
Credits issued by foreign banks, due to fear of default, were
also putting pressure on the Indian exporters. Conditions
seemed worse as exporters shut down their operations
and cut down jobs.
10
Indian
Economy Outlook 2009-10
Economy Outlook 2009-10
prospects, D&B believes the economy would pick up in the 9.0 9.0
7.5
aggressive policy responses by the Government and the 7.5
7.0
RBI start unfolding. Rise in consumption demand will in 6.8
6.7
6.5
turn provide some fillip to industrial production, going FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 F FY10 F
forward; however, savings rate will shrink primarily due to F : Forecast
erosion in value of physical and financial assets of Source: CSO and D&B Research
12
Economy Outlook 2009-10
8.3
8.0
8.0
% Y-O-Y Growth
7.5
6.0 5.5 6.8
4.9 7.0 6.4
4.6 6.5
6.5 6.7
4.0
2.9
6.0
2.0 5.5
1.1 5.5
0.0 5.0
FY08 FY09F FY10F FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09F FY10F
Agriculture Industry Services F: Forecast F: Forecast
Source: CSO and D&B Research Source: CSO and D&B Research
D&B expects the industrial GDP growth to average at 4.6% monetary and fiscal measures aimed at stimulating
during FY09, significantly lower than 8.1% in FY08. Further, demand. D&B expects the aggregate consumption
on account of improvement in demand during H2 FY10, demand as measured by Private Final Consumption
industrial GDP growth is expected to improve and average Expenditure (PFCE) to moderate to 6.5% during FY09 as
at 5.5% during FY10. Growth in services sector GDP is also compared with 8.1% in FY08. However, PFCE is expected to
expected to slowdown to single digit level of 9.5% in FY09 improve slightly to 6.7% in FY10 as fiscal measures and
mainly owing to poor performance of trade and financial lower interest rates begin to boost confidence and
sectors. However, services sector GDP growth is projected stimulate demand in latter half of FY10.
to decelerate to 8.3% for FY10 as the lagged effects of
slowdown in the industrial sector on services intensify.
Industrial production to pick up in H2 FY10
Though the service sector growth will stagger, it is D&B expects growth in industrial production to be around
expected to register the highest growth within the three 3.5% during FY09 as compared with 8.5% during FY08.
broad sectors of the economy; as a result, the service sector
will retain its importance in GDP and its contribution is However, industrial production is expected to improve
expected to increase from 55.7% in FY08 to 58.0% in FY10. during H2 FY10 and register an average growth of 5.3%
during FY10 on account of:
Domestic Consumption to Drive Growth in the
n
Rise in domestic demand
Recovery Phase
n
Stability in export demand
Consumption demand is likely to be restrained in the near n
Faster implementation of infrastructure projects that
future in view of
IIP Growth IIP
n Increasing uncertainty on the employment front 14.0 to gro
up exp wth
tu er ex
n Decline in income growth
% Y-O-Y Growth
12.0 rn ien pe
in ce ct
H2 ed
10.0
n Significant slowdown witnessed in labour-intensive FY
10
8.0
sectors, especially SMEs and export- oriented sectors
6.0
n Significant erosion in value of financial and physical 4.0
assets 2.0
0.0
Declining income growth, negative wealth effect and FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 P FY09 F FY10 F
cautious consumer as well as business sentiments are F : Forecast P : Provisional
likely to limit the positive near term impact of the
Source: RBI and D&B Research
13
Economy Outlook 2009-10
34.2
34 33.0 32.8
31.7
32 D&B forecasts the bank credit growth to moderate
30 29.8 to around 21.5% by end of FY09 and then to 20.0% by end
28
of FY10.
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 E FY09 F FY10 F
30
28.1
expenditure by the Government in FY10 25
21.5
22.3 20.0
20
Savings Rate to Shrink 15.3
15
31.0
15-91 days'
Treasury Bill (yield) 7.09 5.20 4.90
29.0 27.6
27.0 10 Year G-Sec (yield) 7.91 6.90 6.00
25.0
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 E FY09 F FY10 F
M3 (growth Rate %) 20.8 18.5 17.5
F: Forecast E: Estimate
Source: RBI and D&B Research Source: RBI and D&B Research
14
Economy Outlook 2009-10
350 -30
US$ bn
10 300 -50
9 9.0
250 -70
% Y-O-Y Growth
8
7 200 -90
6.5 5.4
6 150 -110
5 5.5
4.6 100 -130
4
4.4 50 -150
3 3.0
2 0 -170
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 F FY10 F
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 F FY10 F
F : Forecast
Export - LHS Import - LHS Trade Balance - RHS F : Forecast
Source: RBI and D&B Research Source: RBI and D&B Research
15
Economy Outlook 2009-10
Re/US$
D&B forecasts the rupee value to be around 49.5/US$ by 45.0 44.6
the end of FY09. The rupee is expected to appreciate in the 43.4 43.8
43.0 43.6
next fiscal and to be around 46.5/US$ by the end of FY10.
41.0
On an average, rupee is expected to be around 45.90/US$
40.0
during FY09 and 47.50/US$ during FY10. The appreciation 39.0
FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09F FY10F
in rupee in next fiscal (towards end) would be on account
F : Forecast
of an expected fall in value of US dollar and resumption in
the FII inflows as the global economy begins to stabilise Note: Data pertains to end of the financial year
Source: RBI and D&B Research
during the latter part of FY10.
16
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