Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
For Immediate Release
Contact Ken Strasma
Strategic Telemetry
202‐546‐4764
reports@StrategicTelemetry.com
Survey shows Walker and eight Republican State Senators vulnerable to recall
An estimated 1.1 million Wisconsin voters would sign a recall petition if asked
Highlights
Microtargeting survey shows opposition to Walker's plan to end collective bargaining for state
employees, and strong support for recalling Walker. Based on these results, the eight
Republican State Senators subject to immediate recall are in significant jeopardy if they support
Walker’s proposal.
Findings
Scott Walker and his allies have been trying to dismiss the unprecedented number of protesters
at the Capitol as either Madison liberals, or out‐of‐state agitators. However, the results of a
recent microtargeting survey indicate that Walker and Republican State Senators are in serious
jeopardy if they continue to push Walker's immensely unpopular plan to end collective
bargaining rights for state employees.
Microtargeting surveys are different from polls in that they seek not only to find the overall
support or opposition to a given proposal, but also to determine the likelihood that any
individual voter will support or oppose the individual in question. This makes it possible to
determine the number of voters who would be likely to support recalling Scott Walker, and the
number who would be willing to take some action like signing a recall petition. Perhaps more
significantly, the microtargeting models provide estimates of the number of voters who would
be likely to support recalling their State Senators in districts where Republican State Senators
are acting or voting against the wishes of their constituents by supporting Walker's radical
proposal.
Findings ‐ continued
The statewide numbers are in line with other recent surveys showing that a majority of
Wisconsin voters oppose Walker's efforts to end collective bargaining. However, this survey
goes on to ask if voters feel that Walker should be recalled, and whether voters would be willing
to take some action like signing a recall petition. 70% of those who oppose the elimination of
collective bargaining feel strongly enough to agree that Walker should be recalled. 62% of these
voters would be willing to take some action such as signing a recall petition.
Wisconsin does not have party registration, so it is not possible to quantify the number of
Democrats, Republicans and independents who feel that Walker should be recalled. However,
there are a number of microtargeting models that predict the likelihood of any voter supporting
Democratic candidates, and the likelihood of their being willing to take actions like volunteering
for a campaign, or going door‐to‐door to collect signatures.
Strategic Telemetry was able to compare the results of this most recent survey to a number of
microtargeting models in order to predict by State Senate district the number of voters who
would support recalling Walker, and the number who would be willing to take action.
Walker will not be subject to a recall until he has served one year in office. After he has served
one year, a recall would require the signatures of approximately 532,970 voters (25% of the
total 2010 gubernatorial vote). Based on the results of this most recent survey and
microtargeting models, it is estimated that more than 1.1 million voters statewide would be
willing to sign a recall petition if asked.
Strategic Telemetry 2 | P a g e
Recall of State Senators
Although the survey did not ask about specific State Senators, if one assumes that voters who
want to recall Walker would also want to recall State Senators who support Walker's plan, the
results are truly troubling for the eight Republican State Senators who were elected in 2008 and
are subject to immediate recall.
In six of the eight districts, it is estimated that a majority of voters are opposed to Walker's
budget. Even in the two districts where a majority of voters support the budget, opponents are
sufficiently energized that the estimated number willing to sign a recall petition is well in excess
of the number needed.
* These numbers are approximate. Some polling locations in Wisconsin include voters from more than
one legislative district. In these cases, the gubernatorial vote was allocated to the district representing
the largest share of the polling location's voters.
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Strategic Telemetry 3 | P a g e
Survey Methodology
The survey was conducted using live calls on Friday 2/25/11 and Saturday 2/26/11. Calls were
done to a random sample of Wisconsin voters with phone numbers. The sample size was 806.
The estimated margin of error is +/‐ 3.5% at the 95% confidence level on the first question.
About Strategic Telemetry
Strategic Telemetry provides microtargeting and strategic consulting for progressive candidates
and labor organizations. Strategic Telemetry produced the microtargeting used by Barack
Obama's 2008 campaign and for hundreds of other campaigns.
Results
Q1
Do you support or oppose Walker's plan to end collective bargaining?
2/25 % Total %
1. Support 288 35.7% 288 35.7%
2. Oppose 420 52.1% 420 52.1%
3. Undecided/Not
Sure 98 12.2% 98 12.2%
2/25 % Total %
1. Yes 312 62.2% 312 62.2%
2. No 87 17.3% 87 17.3%
3. Undecided/Not
Sure 103 20.5% 103 20.5%
502 502
Q3 - Asked of those who feel that Walker should be recalled, or who are undecided
Would you be willing to sign a recall petition or take some other action?
2/25 % Total %
1. Yes 272 68.0% 272 68.0%
2. No 50 12.5% 50 12.5%
3. Undecided/Not
Sure 78 19.5% 78 19.5%
400 400
Strategic Telemetry 4 | P a g e
Recall rules
The governor and state legislators in Wisconsin cannot be recalled until they have served at least one
year. After an elected official has served for one year, a recall may be initiated by a petition containing
the signatures of qualified electors equal to at least 25% of the vote cast for Governor in the same
district.
For complete details see:
http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/publication/65/recall_manual_for_congressiona_county_and_state__82919.pdf
Strategic Telemetry 5 | P a g e