Earth and Planetary Science Letters 255 (2007) 177 – 187

www.elsevier.com/locate/epsl

The volcano–seismic crisis in Afar, Ethiopia,

starting September 2005
Atalay Ayele a , Eric Jacques b,d , Mohammed Kassim b , Tesfaye Kidane c ,
Ahmed Omar b , Stephen Tait d , Alexandre Nercessian d ,
Jean-Bernard de Chabalier d , Geoffrey King d,⁎
a
Geophysical Observatory, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
b
The Arta Geophysical Observatory, Arta, Djibouti
c
Earth Sciences Department, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
d
Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4, Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris, France
Received 22 March 2006; received in revised form 6 December 2006; accepted 7 December 2006
Available online 2 February 2007
Editor: C.P. Jaupart

Abstract

We describe the seismo–volcanic crisis that occurred in northern Afar in late 2005, which involved 15 earthquakes greater than M5
and a small explosive silicic eruption from a vent called Da'Ure (at 12.651°N., 40.519°N) close to Dabbahu volcano. The purpose is to
pull together the different sources of information into a coherent preliminary interpretation of what happened. The main geophysical
data are the locations of the largest earthquakes, and a radar interferogram of unusually high quality that reveals injection of a 60 km
long dyke with surface deformation expressed as normal faulting. Subsidence occurred around the Dabbahu volcanic edifice. Most of
the dyke is likely to have been basaltic rather than silicic although the eruption was silicic. The volume of the subsidence represents at
most 25% of the magma injected into the dyke. The silicic eruption was possibly triggered by interaction of basaltic magma with a
shallow silicic reservoir. At about the same time as the eruption and dyking episode, some activity appears also to have taken place at
the lava lake at Erta Ale volcano, some 150 km to the north of the eruption site. We evaluate the possibility that there may be some link
by calculating stresses associated with opening of the fissure and looking at the activity of the lava lake as revealed by the thermal
anomaly seen by weather satellites.
© 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: volcanic eruption; dyke injection; Afar; Ethiopia; lnSAR

1. Introduction
In mid September 2005 a seismo–tectonic crisis star-
ted to unfold in northern Afar and in the course of the
following weeks was associated with several earthquakes
greater than M 5 together with a small explosive eruption
⁎ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: king@ipgp.jussieu.fr (G. King).
0012-821X/$ - see front matter © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2006.12.014
from which the ash blanket can be seen covering an area
of approximately 100 km2 on SPOT images from late
October 2005.
Afar forms a triangular region where the Red Sea,
Gulf of Aden and East African Rift meet and, except for
the Danakil Mountains is close to, or below, sea level.
To the southwest and east the land rises rapidly to the
Ethiopian plateau with altitudes greater than 2000 m. It
is generally agreed that the Afar depression has evolved
178 A. Ayele et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 255 (2007) 177–187
as the Arabian plate has separated over the last 10 Ma
from the African–Somalian plates and the low lying
crust is composed of extruded and intruded magmas
plus some proportion of original continental crust left
over from the breakup processes.
The region is currently the most active in Africa,
accounting for much of the 1.3 cm/yr of relative motion
between Arabia and Africa–Somalia [1,2], and hosts a
large proportion of Africa's volcanoes. Seven volcanoes
have been active in historical times and thirty-three are
known to have erupted in the last 10,000 years. While
eruptions can be small there have clearly been massive
eruptions and extensive lava fields produced in the past.
Although Afar is considered to be both inhospitable
and inaccessible it has traditionally been home to both
substantial pastoral and agricultural communities and
salt mined from Afar has been widely exported to lands
around the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean. In
recent years the economic importance of Afar has been
expanding rapidly. Abundant water flowing from the
plateau is allowing plantations of major cash crops such
as cotton, sugarcane and peanuts to be developed. Tra-
ditional mining of salt is being expanded together with
the exploitation of other minerals including gold. The
region also promises to provide abundant geothermal
power. For these reasons the next decades can expect to
see both rapid economic development and substantial
expansion of the population in the region.
For scientists the Afar is of special interest repre-
senting a sub-areal example of early continental breakup
and an unparalleled setting where the interactions bet-
ween the processes of tectonic opening and its relation
to volcanism can be studied in detail. The interests of
both safeguarding populations and advancing science
converge in this region.
Only two previous seismo–tectonic crises in Afar
have been studied in detail; one in Asal in 1978 [3–10]
and one in Dobi in 1989 [11–15], thus gathering infor-
mation on this new episode is important. This paper
presents first results for the crisis gleaned from seismic,
radar and some field observations together with inter-
pretations of satellite images.
2. Chronology of events
The crisis appears to have unambiguously begun by
September 9th or 10th when people in the vicinity of
Dabbahu Volcano started to feel earthquakes. This vol-
cano is also known by the name Boyna, and awkwardly
both names have been employed in previous publica-
tions and on maps of the area — we henceforth use only
the name Dabbahu. The volcano is located at 12.60°N,
40.48°E with a summit elevation of 1442 m. It is close to
the northern end of a rift segment called Manda Harraro
defined by abundant subparallel fault traces that strike
approximately SSE [16]. The edifice is formed of inter-
mediate to silicic lava flows and was mapped and sam-
pled by Franco–italian missions several decades ago
[17]. Seismic arrivals detected at the Geophysical Ob-
servatory in Addis Ababa University became sufficient
to alert staff to the onset of a seismic crisis by September
14th. The largest shocks (fourteen in total) were of
magnitude greater than or equal to M 5, recorded on
September 20th, 22nd, 24th (five), 25th (three) 26th (two),
and 28th and October 2nd and 4th. The earthquake of
magnitude 5.2 on September 26 (9h33 UT) appears to
have taken place approximately half an hour before the
onset of an explosive volcanic eruption (reports of local
people giving the start of eruption as about 13h00 local
time, 10h00 UT), however, the latter is sufficiently impre-
cise to leave open the possibility that these two events
were coincident in time.
The explosive eruption that started on September
26th was exclusively composed of silicic ash, giving rise
to an eruption column and umbrella cloud. The white
ash blanket, dispersed towards the west and south, is
visible on SPOT satellite photographs taken on October
15th and 25th and can be outlined by comparison with
an earlier photograph taken on June 4th. Minor ash fall
was reported at the town of Teru, beyond the ash blanket
visible on SPOT images, some 35 km to the south west
of the eruption site (Fig. 1). The eruption vent is situated
at 12°39.0′N, 40°331.1′E, approximately 5 km ENE of
the Dabbahu Volcano summit, which is sufficiently far
not to be actually on the Dabbahu edifice. On account of
the preliminary earthquake locations and reports of in-
tense seismicity, the eruption site (referred to henceforth
as Da'Ure) was visited by scientists from Addis Ababa
University on September 26th (including two of the
present authors), but fortunately they left approximately
2 h before the eruption began. In fact there was initially
some confusion as to the likely site of any eruptive
activity because it was thought that the much more
active basaltic volcano Erta Ale, some 150 km to the
NNE was the most probable location for any eruption.
Da'Ure is one of a series of vents to the east of the
Dabbahu edifice that have given rise to several young
monogenetic flows and pumice cones of similar compo-
sitions, that are prominent on satellite images and appear
approximately aligned with the fault traces of the rift
segment, suggesting that silicic magma may have repea-
tedly used these faults as a pathway to the surface.
On the morning of September 26th, at Da'Ure, the
team from Addis Ababa University observed degassing
 A. Ayele et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 255 (2007) 177–187 179

Fig. 1. Topographic map of the Afar region. Yellow filled triangles indicate volcanic eruptions thought to have occurred in the last 10ka. Dabbahu and
Erta Ale are shown by bold white filled triangles. Mauve shading indicates the most extensive basalt lava flows. Seismicity before the Dabbahu
activity (1 March 1973 to 14 September 2005) located by NEIC is indicated by white filled black circles and swarm seismicity by red circles. The
unfilled correspond to NEIC locations. Those filled with white have magnitudes ≥5.0. The top right inset shows the history of activity for the crisis
using NEIC data for events greater than M = 4.0. The focal mechanisms of the two largest events are shown. The top left inset indicates the geometric
moment (potency) release (m3) as a function of fault dimension (m). Moment release independent of fault dimension is characteristic of a swarm
where fluids are involved. For tectonic deformation the moment release doubles as average fault dimension doubles [33]. The scaling corresponds to a
b-value of 1.8. The locations of Figs. 2 and 3 are indicated by dashed lines.

from the ground, and newly formed fissures, with an
approximate N–S orientation. Following later reports
that a volcanic eruption had taken place at Da'Ure, a
second field mission was organized on October 4th–5th.
A wide, elongate eruptive fissure/crater had formed,
from which intense degassing was occurring, giving a
strong smell of SO2 as much as 500 m away. A loud
noise akin to a boiling liquid or a helicopter engine was
coming from the fissure. The fissure was approximately
N–S in orientation and 500 m long, had been excavated
to as much as 60 m deep by explosive cratering and had
a width of approximately 100 m at its widest point. A
180 A. Ayele et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 255 (2007) 177–187
thin blanket of silicic ash up to a maximum thickness of a
few tens of cm covered the area and boulders up to 2–3 m
in diameter had been thrown from the vent to distances of
20 m. In the central part of the fissure a small volume of
silicic lava was observed, suggesting that the activity
may have culminated with effusive behavior, although
the volume of silicic lava is perhaps too small to merit the
term lava dome.
Although the onset of the eruption can be quite
precisely identified its duration is less certain. Reports
garnered from local people described the ash cloud as
darkening the sky for up to 3 days, suggesting that the
eruption was over by September 30th. The thickness of
the ash covering is much too small to be consistent with
a sustained Plinian eruption over 3 days, which may
imply that a sequence of smaller ash eruptions occurred.
Although this kind of explosive behavior could be a
precursor for more powerful and longer-lived activity,
the number of earthquakes per day had dropped from a
maximum of 45 per day on September 25th to about
Fig. 2. Location for the largest events (green circles) using data from
stations in Ethiopia, Djibouti and Yemen (left panel) using Hypo71,
Vp / Vs = 1.83 (Table 1). Red circles are relative relocations using
HypoDD [34]. Arrows indicated the change in epicenteral positions
relative to those given by direct location. In (Table 2) we give
coordinates for these relocated events but translated such that the
position of the largest shock (event 2, M 5.6) coincides with its absolute
location obtained from Hypo71. The waveforms indicate that events 1
and 2, which form a more northerly cluster are different in character
from those that form a southern cluster. For the location of the left panel
see Fig. 1. The Dabbahu edifice and Da'Ure are identified.
1 per day by October 1st, and by mid-October the crisis
seemed to be essentially over (Fig. 1).
Although eruptive activity was confined to Da'Ure,
there were also intriguing reports that some kind of
activity also took place at Erta Ale, some 150 km to the
NNE. For example, an orange glow in the sky was
reported during the Da'Ure eruption, possibly related to
re-activation of the lava lake. The team from Addis
Ababa University also visited Erta Ale on September
26th, and found changes in comparison with observations
made in November 2004, when the surface of the lava
lake was completely frozen. The southern (main) crater
had widened with some collapses having occurred from
the walls. The lava lake had been re-activated and the
level of its surface had risen indicating an input of new
magma. This raises the question as to whether the
proximity in time of this activity to the eruption at Da'Ure
is coincidental or whether there may have been some
causal link. To explore the possibility of a link we have
used the thermal emission of Erta Ale lava lake activity,
as recorded by an infrared sensor on the MODIS satellite
during the whole of 2005. The presence or absence of a
thermal anomaly indicates whether or not there is hot
lava at the surface of the lake and the magnitude of the
anomaly gives some impression of the level of activity.
After describing the seismic and radar data, we will
return to this question of a link, based on the MODIS
data and on considerations of stresses generated at Erta
Ale by opening of the Da'Ure fissure.
3. Seismic observations
The larger earthquakes associated with the volcano–
tectonic crisis have been recorded by seismic stations
worldwide which have provided preliminary locations
and twenty focal mechanisms (Harvard CMT solutions)
of which the two for the largest events are shown in
Fig. 1. These events, together with smaller events were
also recorded on closer stations in Ethiopia, Djibouti and
Yemen. Fig. 1 shows the NEIC locations before and
during the crisis and the two mainly strike–slip focal
mechanisms of the two main shocks (M ∼5.5). The
figure also shows relocations of seven of the larger
events using data recorded on closer stations using an
Afar region velocity model [18]. No station however was
closer than 225 km. In the absence of close stations and
bearing in mind substantial lateral variations in velocity
structure between the Ethiopian plateau, the Yemen
highlands and the Afar basin, the absolute location of
events must be treated with caution. However, relative
relocations (Fig. 2) indicate that large events were
separated by no more than 30 km and waveforms
 A. Ayele et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 255 (2007) 177–187 181

indicate at least three very different sources. As a conse- Table 2

quence the dimensions and shape of the earthquake Relocated M ≥ 5 earthquakes HypoDD (using regional data: Djibouti
Ethiopia Yemen)
swarm seems reliable although its position is less sure.
The focal mechanisms of the two largest events together Date Time Lat Lon Depth ML (Arta)
with one smaller shock clearly indicate strike–slip fault- 20/09/05 02:17:58 12.672 40.486 10 5.0
ing. These strike–slip events are located in the northern 20/09/05 21:23:32 12.724 40.461 02 5.6
25/09/05 10:02:12 12.534 40.532 10 5.2
part of the swarm near to the Dabbahu volcano. The
25/09/05 11:20:01 12.527 40.528 16 5.3
remaining 17 events with CMT solutions all show nor- 26/09/05 09:33:51 12.557 40.522 10 5.4
mal faulting and are distributed throughout the swarm. 28/09/05 16:31:32 12.574 40.522 00 5.4
02/10/05 23:24:41 12.575 40.518 01 4.9
4. Dyke dimensions determined using Radar
Interferometry
(lesser) opening can give a reasonable fit to the
The ENVISAT satellite of the European Space Agency observations.
has collected data for the region both before and after the Fig. 3c shows the difference between the model and
seismic crisis. This, together with future data will pro- the observations. The model is consistent with the data
gressively provide detailed information about the defor- except around the Dabbahu volcanic edifice where a
mation associated with the seismo–volcanic crisis that can region with dimensions of several kilometres experi-
be compared with further seismic data and detailed enced subsidence reaching more than 1 m. Fig. 3d
surface fault mapping. The data were processed using the shows the seismicity associated with the swarm. Red
JPL ROI_PAC software [19] with the topographic signal circles identify all of the NEIC events with white filled
being removed from the interferograms using the 3-arc circles identifying events greater than M 5.0. Two large
sec SRTM digital elevation model. Fig. 3a shows the line black circles identify the two relocated clusters shown
of sight (LOS) component of displacement produced by in Fig. 2. The relative relocations are positioned on the
the volcano–seismic crisis. It corresponds to the differ- assumption that the relocated event on 20 September at
ence between data collected on 16 April 2004 and 28 21h23 is correctly placed (so that its location coincides
October 2005. It therefore includes 5 months of pre-crisis with the absolute one obtained with regional data and
deformation and about 1 month of post-crisis relaxation. not far from its NEIC location).
The asymmetry of the deformation gradients on the two
sides of the fault is due to the angle of the line of sight. In 5. The character of the Dabbahu eruption and dyke
the vicinity of the rupture zone, the lack of signal is due to emplacement episode
decorrelation that may be due to high strain, ground
disruption related to the dyking and ash coverage. We The data presented above for this seismo–tectonic
model the surface displacement field using the analytical crisis are limited, however it is clear that the movement
approach of Okada [20], for a dyke embedded in a of magmas is an integral part of the events and we now
homogeneous elastic half-space. The model is shown in present a preliminary interpretation in terms of a mag-
Fig. 3b and can result from either of the slip distributions matic plumbing system. We start by drawing on back-
shown in Fig. 3e although they are not unique. There is a ground knowledge of the tectonics of the region and the
trade off between dyke width and dyke opening, such that nature of the 1978 Asal crisis. We then broaden the
a dyke with a shallower (greater) depth extent and greater discussion by making a parallel with rifting events in
Iceland and also use descriptions of likely sub-surface
structure gleaned from fossil rhyolite vents.
Table 1
Location of M ≥ 5 earthquakes Hypo71 (using regional data: Djib
For both Asal and Manda Harraro rifts (the latter
Ethiop Yemen) including Da'Ure), the regions are subject to steady
extension. For the Asal rift a long-term rate of about
Date Time Lat Lon Depth ML (Arta)
1.3 cm/yr is well-established [2]. For Manda Harraro the
20/09/05 02:17:57.86 12.733 40.471 10 5.0
rate is less well known but is unlikely to be less than
20/09/05 21:23:32.18 12.724 40.461 02 5.6
25/09/05 10:02:11.81 12.193 40.477 10 5.2 1 cm/year. In both cases extension appears to be accom-
25/09/05 11:20:01.32 12.402 40.519 16 5.3 modated by normal faulting and fissuring at the surface
26/09/05 09:33:50.81 12.389 40.489 10 5.4 with dyking and intrusion at greater depth with more
28/09/05 16:31:32.12 12.390 40.568 00 5.4 distributed deformation perhaps occurring at even grea-
02/10/05 23:24:40.93 12.436 40.547 01 4.9
ter depths. The Asal crisis was associated with both
182 A. Ayele et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 255 (2007) 177–187

Fig. 3. Interferograms showing the surface displacement associated with the 2005 volcano-tectonic crisis in Afar along the Manda Harraro fissure
swarm. One colour cycle (yellow–blue–red) represents 25 cm of ground displacement toward the satellite along radar line of sight (white arrow in
Fig. 3a;unit vector east, north, up is [− 0.33, 0.07, −0.94]). a) InSAR data, b) model predicted by opening distribution shown below figures.
c) Residuals after subtracting the model from the data. The solid black in each figure line is location of dyke used for modelling. The model is
consistent with the data except in the region of the Dabbahu volcanic edifice where a region with dimensions of several kilometres subsided more than
1 m. d) the seismicity associated with the swarm. Red circles identify all of the NEIC events with white filled circles identifying events greater than M
5.0. Two large black circles identify the two relocated clusters (data in Table 2). Two opening distributions are shown both produce the model in b.
 A. Ayele et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 255 (2007) 177–187 183

earthquakes and dyke intrusion with the relation between
dykes and faults being similar to that shown schema-
tically in Fig. 4. While the earthquakes were substantial
in magnitude, the greater part of the deformation deter-
mined geodetically resulted from dyke opening and not
from slip on fault planes. In the case of Asal the dyke
opening was about 2 m. The Asal crisis was associated
with a basaltic eruption and surface lava flows whereas
that from the Da'Ure vent was silicic as indicated in
Fig. 4. Since magma of rhyolitic composition is much
more viscous than basalt, the eruption conduit that fed
the Da'Ure vent is likely to have had a greater width than
that for Asal to allow magma to rise rapidly to the
surface. However, as discussed below, not only silicic
but also basaltic magma may have been involved in the
Da'Ure event, although none reached the surface.
The radar interferogram and associated model
(Fig. 3) provide an estimate of the dimensions of a
long dyke that opened during the Da'Ure event. The
best-fit models suggest mean opening of about ∼ 5 m
with a maximum of ∼ 6 m, over a horizontal length of
about 60 km, and that the vertical extent of this long
dyke is approximately 7 km although in detail depth is
not well constrained. (see earlier discussion and possible
models in Fig. 3e). Furthermore, if we note the sub-
sidence at the northern end of the fissure, that can be
seen in the residual between the model and observations
(Fig. 3c) it seems most plausible to interpret the prin-
cipal signal of opening in terms of horizontal injection
from north to south of a blade dyke, most likely of
broadly basaltic composition. This latter inference is
based on the relative rapidity of the whole event, and by

Fig. 4. a) A schematic figure showing the relation between a possible magma chamber, dyke intrusion, and the location of the eruptive vent and surface
faulting and fissuring. No surface eruption occurred along the length of the dyke thus extension was accommodated close to the surface by faulting e.g.
[35]. The lack of surface eruption reinforces the hypothesis that basaltic (and hence denser) was injected rather than silicic. b) A photograph of the eruptive
vent.
184 A. Ayele et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 255 (2007) 177–187
analogy with dyke injection events of broadly similar
character in Iceland, for example. In fact a quite close
analogy may be drawn with the events that took place at
Askja volcano and in the Sveinagja fissure swarm in
1874–1875, although these generally involved larger
magma volumes and the overall duration was greater
[21]. A silicic explosive eruption (volume ∼ 0.1 km3,
involving some mixed basaltic–silicic ejecta) took place
at Askja, a dyke was injected along the Sveinagja fissure
swarm and approximately 2 km3 of ferro–basalt erupted
some 60 km. distant from Askja. A small caldera called
Oskuvätn formed at Askja whose volume is larger than
the erupted volume of silicic magma, suggesting that at
least some of the basaltic magma involved had been
stored beneath Askja. In contrast to the Askja event, it
appears that no basaltic magma erupted from the Da'Ure
vent or from the Manda Harraro fissure swarm. From the
InSAR data the volume of the dyke (∼ 1.6 km3) and the
volume of subsidence (∼ 0.2 km3) can be estimated. As
a result of lack of coherence, subsidence around Dab-
bahu could be underestimated, but it is unlikely that the
net volume could have been greater than 0.4 km3.
Clearly this represents no more than and possibly much
less than 25% of the dyke injection. One possibility is
that the unaccounted for volume has been replaced by a
gas phase that exsolved in a near-surface magma vola-
tile-saturated reservoir due to a decompression that
accompanied the removal of magma [22,23]. No data
are currently available on the volatile content of the
Dabbahu magmas that allow this idea to be evaluated
quantitatively. The other possibility is that a volume of
basaltic magma was fed from a deeper source, possibly in
the mantle (Fig. 4a). It is plausible that basaltic magma
moving up through the crust intersected a shallow reser-
voir of silicic magma and triggered the eruption, before
being injected horizontally into the long dyke that caused
the main radar signal.
The dimensions of the Da'Ure silicic dyke, which
pierced to the surface and caused the eruption and or a
superficial silicic magma reservoir cannot be directly
addressed by the radar data, however, we make some
preliminary remarks partly based on previous studies.
The surface expression of the Da'Ure eruptive fissure is
400–500 m long (Fig. 4). During the Da'Ure explosive
activity, blasting by gas led to horizontal and downward
erosion resulting in a flared vent several tens of metres
wide and deep. Stasiuk et al. [24] reconstructed the
geometry of a fossil rhyolite vent dissected by erosion
which formed during a somewhat larger eruption. The
flared vent was lined by pyroclastic material but infilled
with the lava that also formed a small overlying lava
dome, and fed from below by a dyke approximately
10 m in width. The base of the flared vent was appro-
ximately 250 m below the palaeo-ground surface. In
another example, the conduit of the Inyo rhyolite dome
was intersected by a volcano drilling project, revealing a
flared vent approximately 50 m wide at 400–500 m
depth, underlain by a dyke approximately 7 m wide at
600 m. depth [25]. The Unzen Scientific Drilling project
intersected several silicic dykes a few tens of metres
across, one of which is believed to be that which fed the
1991 dome-forming eruption of Fugen Dake [26]. Field
observations indicate that silicic dykes are generally
wider than their mafic counterparts, because the much
larger viscosity of the magma requires larger driving
pressures. These observations and arguments suggest
that the silicic dyke that fed the Da'Ure eruption may
well have had a width in the 10-20m range.
6. Stresses at Erta Ale resulting from the Dabbahu
eruption
Fig. 5 shows the relative relocations taken from
Fig. 2. However they are shifted so that the event on the
20 September at 21h23 coincides with the best absolute
location using regional data (which is also close to the
NEIC location). The dimensions of the dyke (from
Fig. 3e) are those that produced the interferogram in
Fig. 3b. Fig. 5 shows the Coulomb stresses resulting
from this geometry calculated for a regional exten-
sional stress field of ∼ 50 bars orientated perpendicular
to the prevailing orientations of mapped normal
faulting [27–29]. White lines indicate the strike of
fault planes favored by the regional stress field and the
dyke opening. Most are at N5°W and can be either
normal faulting or fissure opening. Close to Dabbahu,
antithetic planes (blue) indicate that strike–slip faulting
is favored as observed in the focal mechanisms
although a detailed comparison is not possible. The
stress change at Erta Ale is about 0.1 bars. Although
little is known about stress changes that can trigger
volcanic eruptions, changes of 0.1 bars or less are well
documented to trigger earthquakes [30]. Thus dyke
injection along the rift segment from Dabbahu could
have influenced the behavior of Erta Ale.
Fig. 6 shows how the thermal anomaly seen from
space due to the lava lake at Erta Ale varied during the
course of 2005 up until the end of November. This
information was obtained from the website of the
Hawaii institute of geophysics which uses data auto-
matically downloaded from the MODIS satellite “Aqua”
and “Terra” data-streams to monitor thermal anomalies.
The data plotted come from channel B21, an infrared
sensor, which has a central wavelength of 3.959 μm.
 A. Ayele et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 255 (2007) 177–187 185

Fig. 5. Coulomb stress changes resulting from the dyke determined from InSAR modeling (Fig. 3). A varying regional extensional stress field of 50 b
is applied with extension perpendicular to the small white lines. These indicate the strikes of optimally orientated normal faulting or dykes. The
varying stress field is chosen such that the predicted directions correspond to the mapped faults in Afar [27–29]. Near to the Dabbahu vent orthogonal
directions indicate that strike–slip faulting is favoured consistent with the observed strike–slip focal mechanisms (Fig. 1). The 0.1 b stress level is
indicated by a contour line. A stress rise of 0.1 b could be responsible for modifying the behaviour of Erta Ale. Stresses are also increased in the region
of Asmara. The slip distribution for the calculations are shown below the figure.

This band saturates for whole pixel temperatures in
excess of 500 K, but as the pixel is much larger than the
lava lake area, saturation is uncommon. The only mani-
pulation performed on the raw data was smoothed to
remove rapid intensity variations, such that each plotted
point corresponds to a nine-point running average. The
data show that the lack of activity observed in the field
by a group of Swiss volcanologists in late 2004 con-
tinued for approximately the first three and a half
months of 2005. In April 2005, a thermal anomaly re-
appears, presumably due to activity at the lake's surface.
The anomaly remains fairly constant until late au-
gust when a distinct and quite sharp increase occurs.
Throughout the duration of the Da'Ure/Dabbahu/Manda
Harraro seismo–volcanic crisis the state of elevated
activity of the lake's surface is maintained. Although we
do not regard these data as sufficient to prove a link
between activity at Da'Ure, Manda Harraro and Erta
Ale, they do suggest that some link may be possible,
with the stresses generated by opening of the eruptive
fissure at Da'Ure and the injection of the basalt dyke
being sufficient to enhance activity of the Erta Ale lava
lake. This hypothesis may be worthy of further consi-
deration as more information becomes available.
7. Conclusions
The seismo–volcanic crisis in Afar acted as a reminder
that catastrophic eruptions are possible and that the
potential dangers to Afar should be studied. Information
186 A. Ayele et al. / Earth and Planetary Science Letters 255 (2007) 177–187
Fig. 6. Thermal emission of Erta Ale lava lake from Jan.1st to Nov.30th 2005 recorded as a temperature anomaly by Modis satellite infra-red sensor
channel B21 — data obtained from Hawaii institute of geophysics website dedicated to automatic acquisition from Modis “Aqua” and “Terra”
satellites. http://modis.higp.hawaii.edu/ [36]. The increase in activity was continuing slightly diminished a few months later. The vertical scale is W
m− 2 sr− 1 μm− 1.
for the September–October 2005 crisis is addressed using
seismic and InSAR results allowing a hypotheses for the
eruption and dyke intrusion to be proposed. The 60 km of
dyke injection to the south happened so rapidly that this
was very likely the result of injection of inviscid basaltic
magma. The collapse around the Dabbahu edifice was less
than 25% of this volume suggestion that a substantial
quantity of basalt may have come from below. The surface
eruption occurred 5 km from Dabbahu and was silicic.
Being silicic and viscous it would have required greater
opening than a basaltic dyke to allow its rapid ascent. A
likely hypothesis is that rising basaltic lava could have
thermally reactivated an existing silicic magma chamber
near to the surface. Did activity at Dabbahu provoked
changes in the behaviour of Erta Ale? Increased activity at
Erta Ale preceded dramatic activation at Dabbahu by a
week or two, but earlier motion may have produced no
spectacular seismic activity and low-level seismicity
would not have been detected. It is certainly mechanically
possible that Erta Ale could have been triggered. The
dyking proposed for Dabbahu would have created stresses
that could help to open fissures or conduits. However, it
seems improbable that this level of activity at Dabbahu
would alone be sufficient to trigger activity of a dormant
lava lake at Erta Ale, but the possibility of enhancement of
activity there appears worthy of consideration.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank Dr Araya Assfaw the acting
Dean of the Faculty of Science in Addis Ababa. M.
Jean-Baptiste Chauvin scientific and cultural attaché of
the French Embassy in Addis Ababa provided help.
Both Dr Araya Assfaw and M. Jean-Baptiste Chauvin
assisted with funding for our time in Addis Ababa. We
thank the European Space Agency (ESA) for program-
ming the Envisat satellite and providing data crucial to
this work (AO-272). Roi_Pack software was providing
by JPL. We thank M.P. Doin, C. Lasserre (ENS Paris)
and Gilles Peltzer (UCLA) for their help processing SAR
data. This paper is IPGP number XXXX and CNRS-
INSU number YYYY. Since this paper was submitted
one paper has been published [31] and a second sub-
mitted [32] that are relevant to the Afar seismo–tectonic
crisis.
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