Colegio de San Juan de Letran

Name : LAZO, MYLES N. Course : ACEL03 Date : 02/18/2021

Section : AC2A Professor : MRS. CLARISSA F. QUEZON, CPA

Give your own example for each of the following qualitative forecasts.
1. Expert opinions
Forecasts resulting from the subjective views of H&M’s executives or experts from sales,
production, finance, purchasing, and administration are taken and then averaged to generate
a forecast about their future sales.

2. Delphi method
Having the Service director (1) ask all participants to anonymously submit forecast
estimates, (2) tabulate the results, (3) return these tabulated results to the participants, telling
them to what extent there was general consensus, and asking them to state their reasons for
any widely divergent estimates they had made and resubmit an updated anonymous forecast
estimate, (4) cycle through stages (2)-(4) until a general consensus emerges.

3. Sales force polling

A company selling forklifts priced at 10, 000,000 pesos cannot afford to carry a large
inventory and requires that its salespeople contact all potential customers. The territory man-
agers formulate a forecast that is passed on to the senior managers at corporate office.

Corporate management thus uses the sales force composite forecast to determine how many
forklifts should be produced for the next year. Many companies use the accuracy of the field
sales manager’s forecasts as a major part of their performance evaluation. The more accurate
the manager’s forecast is, the higher will be the compensation received by the manager.

4. Consumer market surveys

Polling of shoe manufacturer’s actual or potential customers, ranging from individual
households to intermediaries, to forecast the market demand. They are employing consumer
panels that are given products and are asked to supply information on the product’s quality,
features, price, and whether they would buy it.

5. PERT-derived forecasts
 If we think about a task which involves travelling for deliveries of ordered goods in a
crowded city from a specific location in the city to the airport. Actual time taken will depend
upon the traffic condition on the road. 

This may take optimistically 30 minutes, pessimistically 90 minutes and most likely 60
minutes. So the range in which the travel time will fall is 30 minutes to 90 minutes.  An
average expected estimate is calculated by taking a weighted average of these 3 points of
estimates.