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Assignment 1
A report on
Advent of 3G and its implications for Indian telecommunication
industry
Submitted to
In partial fulfillment of the requirements of the course
Written Analysis and Communication-II
On
January 16, 2010
By
1
Abstract
For long, 3G has been touted as the â next big thingâ for the Indian
telecom industry.
From videos to games, from trading to movies, 3G was supposed to be the
panacea
for all. The arrival of 3G in India was signalled via an announcement
about the
spectrum allocation bidding process in August 2008. However, 17 months
and many
revised notifications later, India is yet to have a competitive bidding
process for the
spectrum allocation. Meanwhile, state owned telecom companies MTNL and BSNL
were allocated spectrum and rolled out their 3G services last year. But the
subscriber base for these services has been disappointing to say the
least. But
considering these are state-owned companies, itâ s important to analyse
the decision-
making factors for the telecom companies to bid for the spectrum and the
effects of
3G on the Indian telecom sector in general.
Total word count: 141
2
Table of Contents
Telecommunication in
India...........................................................................
.............4
Before the introduction of mobile
phones.................................................................4
History of mobile phone service in
India...................................................................4
History of mobile phone
technology......................................................................
.......5
Features of
3G..............................................................................
............................6
Risks involved with
3G..............................................................................
................6
Government policies on
3G..............................................................................
..........7

Participation of foreign
players.........................................................................
.........7
Issues with auction of the
spectrum........................................................................
..8
Tax
Riddle..........................................................................
.......................................8

Launching of 3G in
India...........................................................................
.................8
Other investments needed for
3G.............................................................................9
Effect of 3G on Indian Telecom Industry
[35]...............................................................10
Prices..........................................................................
.............................................10
National
Carriers........................................................................
.............................10
Services
provided........................................................................
............................10
Types of Incremental
customers.......................................................................
......11
Handset
prices..........................................................................
..............................11
Key facts from earlier 3G implementations across the
globe.................................11
Future of Indian 3G mobile phones
industry................................................................12
Break even Analysis of the 3G industry in
India...........................................................13
Conclusion......................................................................
.......................................13
References......................................................................
......................................14

3
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page_5><#outer_page_5><#outer_page_4>

References......................................................................
......................................14
Exhibit
1...............................................................................
.................................17
Exhibit
2...............................................................................
.................................18
Exhibit
3...............................................................................
.................................20

Exhibit 3
Advent of 3G and its implications for Indian
telecommunication industry
Telecommunication in India
Before the introduction of mobile phones
Telephone made a modest entry in India in 1882 with the establishment of
telephone exchanges in Calcutta, Bombay and Madras in 1882 [1].
Subsequent growth in the Indian telecom sector was relatively slow. Till
early 1990s, people had to wait for about 10 years to get a new
telephone connection. The number of telephone connections registered a
compounded annual growth rate of just over 1% per year and number of
telephone connections rose from 82,000 in 1947 [2] to 8 million in 1994
[3].
In order to improve the state of telecom sector in the country, the
Government of India announced a new telecom policy in 1994, through
which private investment in public sector company Videsh Sanchar Nigam
Limited (VSNL) was permitted. Most significant feature of the policy was
the decision to launch mobile phone service in the country [3].
4
<#outer_page_21><#outer_page_18><#outer_page_17><#outer_page_4><#outer_page_21>
History of mobile phone service in India
Mobile phone service was introduced in India in 1995. During the initial
years, prices of mobile handsets, tariffs and activation charges were
very high and therefore beyond the reach of common people. In 1995, a
mobile handset cost about Rs. 40,000 and tariff was as high as Rs. 17
per minute [4]. As a result, the growth of mobile phones in India was
sluggish and the number of mobile phone subscribers were about 1.6
million in 1999 [5].
Since 1997, the government took a number of decisive steps to increase
the popularity of mobile phones in the country. Firstly, government
reduced its involvement in deciding the tariffs after the formation of
Telecom Regulatory Authority of India in 1997 [6]. It also slashed the
taxes on mobile phone handsets and services. By 2002, Government reduced
its stake in VSNL to 26%. These developments resulted in significant
reduction in mobile phone tariffs and made mobile phone affordable to
the middle class people [6]. Today Indian mobile phone industry has 543
million subscribers [7], and it is the third largest mobile phone
industry in the world [8]. India is expected to have more than one
billions mobile phone subscribers by 2015 [9].Today Bharti Airtel,
Reliance, Tata, Vodafone and Idea, along with BSNL and MTNL are the
major players in Indian mobile phone industry. Bharti Airtel is the
largest mobile telecom company in India and in 2009, attempted largest
M&A deal of MTN [10].
History of mobile phone technology
Attempts to invent a mobile phone had been made since late 1940s at AT&T
Bell Labs [11]. Motorola developed the first workable model of mobile
phone in 1973 [12]. However the first commercial model of the mobile
phone could be launched only in 1979 in Japan. Scandinavian countries
like Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden followed suit and launched
commercial mobile phones in 1981 [13].
The history of mobile phone technology can be summarized in the
following table.
Table 1: Historical development of mobile phone technology
5
Technology Technical details
Features
Years
1G
Uses analog signals for
transmission of data.
Only audio signals could
be transmitted
1980s
2G
Uses digital signals to encrypt the data. Allowed speeds up to 14.4 Kb
per second.
Limited text signals could be sent in the form of SMS in addition to
audio signals. Better security of data.
1990s [14]
2.5G
Allows speeds up to 56 Kb
per second
In addition to all features of 2G, allows limited internet connectivity
in the form of GPRS
2000s
3G
Allows speeds up to 2 Mb
per second
Described below
Early 2000s
[15]
Features of 3G
Due to the potential of data transmission at very high speeds, 3G
technology is capable of bringing internet connectivity on mobile
phones. Following are the most important features that 3G technology can
offer [16]
i.
Enhanced multimedia in terms of audio and video signals: Potential
applications are video conferencing, mobile TV and related applications
such as video on demand.
ii.
Integration of internet and mobile phones and ability of internet surfing,
sending e-mails and e-commerce on mobile phone.
iii.
Mobile phone can be used to make financial transactions and money
transfer.
Risks involved with 3G
In spite of these attractive features, 3G technology also has serious
concerns.
Currently, there is no mechanism to monitor 3G calls on real time as
data transfers
6
and voice calls are encoded in 3G and cannot be decoded. As a result, 3G
technology has the following risks associated with it.
a)Misuse by terrorists
Terrorists can use 3G technology for better coordination and sending
audiovisual signals in real time in order to carry out terrorist and
subversive activities [17].
b)Misuse by money launderers
Since mobile phone can be used for making real time financial
transactions, money launders and drug peddlers can deposit money in
overseas bank accounts before being detected by enforcement agencies.
c)Misuse by sex offenders and paedophiles
Since 3G technology offers real time transmission of pictures and
videos, the technology can be used by sex offenders and paedophiles for
their unscrupulous activities. This can not only reactivate the previous
offenders but also attract new offenders as detection is more difficult.
d)Compromise of data security
3G network, being essentially an IP network, it is vulnerable to all the
security issues associated with traditional internet network, such as
hacking, viruses, Trojans, spam and data interception. Due to difficulty
in decoding the data on 3G, these concerns assume more serious
dimensions on 3G.
Government and law enforcement agencies will have to come up with
effective measures to tackle the risks associated with 3G. Security of
3G networks can be enhanced by using protocols that limit the number of
users to a single cell site.
Government policies on 3G
3G technology works on transmitting radio waves in digital format. The
bandwidth of the spectrum needed for 2G is up to 200 KHz while the
requirement for 3G is of the order of MHz [18]. In India, the radio
frequencies are confined between 9 KHz and 3000 GHz and are allocated
for different services like fixed communication, mobile
7
communication, broadcasting, radio navigation, and satellite
communication [19]. Most of the radio spectrum is controlled by the
defence establishments for their wireless transmission. Presently, 25
MHz spectrum in 900 MHz band and 75 MHz in the 1800 MHz band are
allotted to GSM services. However, large part of this band is still not
available for commercial applications as it is yet to be vacated by the
defence establishment. Similarly two 20 MHz spectra in the 800 Mz band
are allotted to CDMA service providers [19]. According to guidelines
issued on August 1, 2008, Government has allocated 2X5 MHz blocks in 2.1
GHz band for 3G. This gave a natural advantage to BSNL and MTNL over
other players as the spectrum was allotted to them without having to
participate in auction. The allocation of spectrum to private players
will be done on the basis of competitive bidding [20]. Though BSNL and
MTNL did not have to participate in auction, they will have to pay the
same bidding amount as the private telecom companies in the auction [21].
Participation of foreign players
On October 25, 2009, Government of India issued a notification stating
that foreign firms would be allowed to bid for spectrum for 3G [22].
According to the notification, foreign entities can operate telecom
services in India only through an Indian subsidiary with not more than
74 per cent foreign share holding, subject to the approval of the
Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) [23]. Along with that, the
government also stated a roll-out obligation - in the metros, the
licensee to whom the spectrum is allocated shall be required to provide
service in at least 90 per cent of the area, within five years [24]
Issues with auction of the spectrum
On August 7, 2008, government preferentially allotted the spectrum
blocks to BSNL and MTNL. The spectrum block is of 2X5 MHz in 2.1 GHz,
and in the bandwidth of 2.5 GHz at 2645.0 MHz. [25]. The bidding for the
remaining blocks in the spectrum allotted to 3G was to be started in
2008. However the bidding for the spectrum auction had to be delayed
because of a number of reasons including delay in vacating of the radio
spectrum by defence establishment [26], differences on number
8
of private players allowed to participate in the auction [27], number of
slots in the spectrum [28], and bureaucratic hassles such as failure to
fix auction date and modalities [29]. Contentious issue of reserve price
was sorted out between Finance and Telecom ministries and the reserve
price of 3G auction was fixed on Rs. 4040 crores in June 2009 [30].
However pending the resolution of other issues, concern has been raised
about 3G not being effectively launched in India in the year 2010 [31].
Tax Riddle
There is no specific provision in Indian tax laws governing the
deductibility of the payments made for acquiring spectrum. There have
been several debates going on whether payment for spectrum is in the
nature of capital expenditure or revenue expenditure. Also, there is no
clarity on issues like whether it would be available for depreciation if
considered as a capital expenditure or whether deduction would be
allowed if it were to be considered revenue expenditure [32].
Launching of 3G in India
3G was formally launched in India in December 2008 by Prime Minister Dr.
Manmohan Singh [33].MTNL launched its 3G services, Jadoo, in Delhi and
Mumbai, while BSNL launched its 3G service in 11 cities across India.
Along with voice calling and local/std sms, it also features services
like video calls for both local and STD services. Further, it is also
exploring services such as mobile broadband, mobile television and other
mobile commerce services. BSNL has made initial investments to the tune
of Rs.2700 crores and is targeting 20 million broadband customers by the
end of 2010 [34].
Figure 2: Current status of 3G in India
(Data taken from reference 34) *subscribers in thousands
9
Other investments needed for 3G
Establishing 3G network and infrastructure would have to be taken up on
a high priority basis by the successful bidders. This would lead to a
greater dependence on debt and loans and mount pressure on the companies
in the short term. Another important aspect is availability of 3G
enabled mobile handsets at affordable rates. One of the main reasons for
the rapid spread of mobile usage across the country was easy
availability of cheap handsets, but most of them are not 3G compliant.
Currently the telecom companies are in the middle of a severe price war
in the telephony sector, resulting in prices as low as 1paise/second. If
such a price war erupts in the 3G sector too, then it would bleed the
telecom companies even further. Also, initially in order to acquire
customers, telecom companies would have to go in for aggressive
marketing, then increasing advertising and marketing expenditure.
Effect of 3G on Indian Telecom Industry [35]
Though India is the third largest mobile network globally, there is not
much presence of internet or broadband among Indian customer base. 3G
will have plenty of market as the expected subscriber base is expected
to reach 746 million customers by 2013. Broadband requires extensive
capital investment for establishment of lines, licenses and regulations,
it is expected that the internet connectivity in the rural India will be
primarily driven by wireless broadband services. Other technologies for
broadband are available for free in the Indian market.
Prices
The telecommunications industry in the present market is driven by cost
efficiencies and lowering prices. Hence the 3G service providers would
come under immense price pressures. It is expected that the cost of a
mobile with its first year of services would only cost USD25-30. 3G
providers would not only have competition amongst them but would also
have to face the tough competition from 2G and especially 2.5 G service
providers.
10
National Carriers
Since the terms of the 3G bandwidth auction are such that there are
equal costs for both regional and national players, there are presently
no rules on roaming. Providers can choose to charge their customers for
roaming services in other cities, or might not want to charge them. So
now the national carriers will have more appeal because it provides a
seamless all-India service.
Services provided
The cost for such carriers is presently going to be driven by the voice
services. Since the demand for data based applications like video
conferencing are driven by the data packets transferred, there are not
many takers for them so far. Hence telecom companies that are providing
3G services will have to have higher operational efficiencies than the
providers of other services so that they can cover the higher fixed
cost. Also the customer surveys and predictions show that the usage
pattern in a developing country like ours is different from that of
developed country (Exhibit 1). Right now the focus of 3G provider would
be to enhance the experience of existing consumers rather than bring a
drastic change in application patterns like usage of video conferencing.
They would concentrate on providing better browsing, downloading,
surfing and buffering experiences.
Types of Incremental customers
Both public sector and private players are present in this market. The
private players are targeting the urban consumers with high ARPU and
will be present in about 100 Tier I cities. While in case of public
sector enterprises, the target is to expand the geographical reach and
to cover as many cities as possible.
It is estimated that the top 9% of mobile subscribers contribute to
approximately 29% of circle revenues and more importantly 45% of
margins, and therefore this customer segment will be the prime focus for
carriers for migration to 31. The main target segments by 3G are the
corporate and the youth in the short term, mid market segment in the
medium term and rural and incremental subscribers in the long term.
11
<#outer_page_26>
Handset prices
Right now, the biggest deterrent for 3G market is the high prices of the
handsets supporting 3G services. The prices of 2 G handsets are
comparatively lower. 3G can be made competitive by bundling wherein we
bundle either talk- time/services/content etc with the handset.
Key facts from earlier 3G implementations across the globe
Europe went ahead with spectrum auctions in the year 200-2001. The
auction process turned out to be a fiasco, with a huge disparity in the
prices per capita in different companies. Initially, there was a huge
hype surrounding 3G, with all telecom companies wanting to get into the
rat race. Another reason for this was hat public started investing in
shares of companies which they knew were bidding for 3G and hence
backing out at the last moment would have resulted in the stocks of such
companies plummeting. In the UK bidding, the spectrum was auctioned for
650 Euros per capita. Germany too managed to auction the spectrum for
around 615 Euros per capita. However, the hype failed in many countries
and the end result was that a country like Switzerland, which is both
rich and centrally located, managed to auction its spectrum for only
around 20 Euros per capita [36]. Exhibit 2 discusses strengths of some
leading players in 3G implementation globally.
Figure 3: Auction prices of 3G spectrum in different countries in Europe
(Data taken
from reference 36)
Future of Indian 3G mobile phones industry
The reason that 3G has created a buzz among the youth of the country is
due to the wide segment of features that it proposes to provide. Along
with voice and data transmission, video conferencing, stock quotes,
traffic information, trading, ticketing, etc can easily be accessed.
Entertainment has a huge revenue generating potential in our country,
hence movies and songs download, cricket broadcasts, gaming,
12
ringtones, chat rooms can be a source of attraction to the youth. Also,
corporate customers can be targeted because of fulfilment of business
needs like video conferencing, mailing facility, etc. However, adoption
of 3G technology will not lead to immediate increase in subscriber base
of the telecom companies. The gestation period will be high and cash
registers wont be set ringing immediately. There are many key
infrastructure issues that need to be addressed and reach has to be
increased. Also, tie-ups with good content providers who can provide
superior mobile content and data features are essential. The cost of 3G
enabled mobile phones has not come down and this might act as a
deterrent for price-sensitive consumers in the Indian market.
Break even Analysis of the 3G industry in India
With this background, we proceed to perform break-even point analysis
for the Indian 3G mobile phones industry. The assumptions for the
calculations are as follows
Though the government has specified reserve price for 3G auction at Rs.
4040 crores, the actual value of auction is likely to be higher.
Therefore the value of auction is taken to be Rs. 8000 crores. The
investment required for the mandatory universal access service licence
(UASL) is Rs 1651 crores. Number of circles in India is 3 and there is
one subscriber per circle. Therefore, only one license is required per
circle. An investment of Rs 7500 is required for infrastructure for
every subscriber added (The cost for adding base for 1 crore subscribers
is Rs 7500 crores. It contains Rs 3,500 crore going towards equipment
costs and the balance towards transmission & infrastructure cost). The
number of subscribers added per year are calculated from the FICCI
report and the investment required for providing mobile services as well
as modem services is assumed to be same [35,36].
Using the above figures, the estimated time for break even of 3G
industry has been
calculated as about3.7 years (Exhibit 3).13
Conclusion
With the auction most likely to happen in March 2010, Indian telecom
subscribers can only hope that they are not left far behind the rest of
the world in enjoying the benefits of the much hyped 3G network provided
by the private players.
(Total word count: 2989)
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-7.html><http://ibnlive.in.com/news/govt-approves-release-of-3g-spectrum-for-bsn
l-mtnl/70642-7.html><http://www.livemint.com/2009/10/25161251/3G-spectrum-auctio
n-from-14-Ja.html?d=1><http://www.livemint.com/2009/10/25161251/3G-spectrum-auct
ion-from-14-Ja.html?d=1><http://www.brandfaqs.in/2009/10/foreign-firms-allowed-t
o-bid-for-india.html><http://www.indiantelevision.com/headlines/y2k9/july/july18
1.php>
19. ISSUES IN SPECTRUM ALLOCATION AND PRICING IN INDIA.CC
Maharashtra.[Online] [Cited: 15 January 2010.]
http://www.ccamaharashtra.gov.in/HTMLDOCS/licensing/SPECTRUM.pdf.
20.Department of Telecom. [Online] [Cited: 15 January 2010.]
http://www.dot.gov.in/as/Auction%20of%20Spectrum%20for3G%20&
%20BWA/sprectrum_2.pdf.
20. Department of Telecom. [Online] [Cited: 15 January 2010.]
http://www.dot.gov.in/as/Auction%20of%20Spectrum%20for3G%20&
%20BWA/sprectrum_2.pdf.
21.
http://www.indiantelevision.com/headlines/y2k9/july/july181.php
22.
http://www.brandfaqs.in/2009/10/foreign-firms-allowed-to-bid-for-india.html
23.
http://www.livemint.com/2009/10/25161251/3G-spectrum-auction-from-14-
Ja.html?d=1
24.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/govt-approves-release-of-3g-spectrum-for-bsnl-
mtnl/70642-7.html
25.
http://www.itexaminer.com/finance-ministry-puts-dot-on-the-spot-over-3g-
auction.aspx
26.
http://www.globaltelecomsbusiness.com/Article/2324039/Sectors/25199/Milita
ry-delays-India-3G-auction.html
27.
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/govt-may-again-delay-3g-
auction/82910/on
28.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/telecom/EGoM-
split-over-auction-of-number-of-3G-slots/articleshow/5450439.cms
29.
http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report_3g-delayed-as-egom-fails-to-fix-
auction-date-and-modalities_1334115
30.
http://newshopper.sulekha.com/3g-auction-base-price-proposed-at-rs-4-040-
crore_news_1081243.htm
31.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/biz/india-business/3G-may-be-non-starter-
in-2010/articleshow/5450433.cms
32.
http://beta.thehindu.com/business/Economy/article52813.ece
16
33.
http://www.medianama.com/2008/12/223-mtnl-3g-services-demoed-
commercial-launch-by-mid-feb/
34.
http://www.blonnet.com/2009/02/23/stories/2009022351380100.htm
35.
http://www.ficci.com/telecome/telecom.htm
36.
http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Foreign-investors-face-hard-math-
on-3G-entry/353042/
Exhibit 1
Top 5 website categories (% of mobile internet users)
US
Email (65%)
Weather
(41%)
Search (29%)
News/Politics
(36%)
City Guides/Maps
(24%)
17
<http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Foreign-investors-face-hard-math-on-3G-
entry/353042/><http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Foreign-investors-face-ha
rd-math-on-3G-entry/353042/><http://www.ficci.com/telecome/telecom.htm><http://w
ww.blonnet.com/2009/02/23/stories/2009022351380100.htm><http://www.medianama.com
/2008/12/223-mtnl-3g-services-demoed-commercial-launch-by-mid-feb/><http://www.m
edianama.com/2008/12/223-mtnl-3g-services-demoed-commercial-launch-by-mid-feb/>
Euro
pe
Email (46%)
Search
(25%)
News/Politics
(26%)
Weather(24%) Sports (22%)
Chin
a
Entertainment
(55%)
Games
(36%)
Music (31%)
News/Politics(
26%)
Business/finance
(18%)
India Games(38%)
Email
(33%)
Entertainment
(55%)
Music(18%)
Sports(15%)
Brazi
l
Email (57%)
Music
(27%)
Entertainment
(55%)
Games(18%)
Movies(12%)
Russ
ia
Entertainment
(55%)
Search
(29%)
Email(24%)
Music(24%)
Games(24%)
Source : Neilson, Mobile Media Marketplace report-BRIC,US, Europe,QI 2008
Exhibit 2
18
Strengths of some global players in mobile phone technology
Characteristics
AT & T
KDDI
Maxis
Verizon
Wireless
Country of
Operation
US
Japan
Malaysia
US
Customers
71.4 million
1.3 million
Services
Video/Audio
download,
streaming TV
channels, voice
messaging,
video share
video, ringtone,
full length
music
downloads,
radio, TV
channels,
location
detector and
directions,
hourly news
and weather
updates
video on
demand, full
track music
downloads,
video
telephony
real-time
mobile
navigation
and mobile
TV,
multimedia
messaging,
multiplayer
and 3D
gaming
Data Speed
14.4 Mbps
3.1 Mbps
2 Mbps
Other key
features
largest mobile
operator in the
U.S.
brings the
focus on
handsets
bypassing PCs
41.5% share of
the mobile
market, covers
over 92% of
the country
first
multimedia
wireless
service
launched the
first commercial
large-scale
HSDPA (High-
Speed
Downlink
Packet Access)
pioneer in
employing a
3G feature
called BCMCS
(broadcast
multicast
exploring
mobile TV
options
highest
data-to-
total-ARPU
ratio among
all major
operators in
19
deployment in
the world
service)
the U.S.
low cost of data
delivery
cost-effective
content
broadcast
service
worked with its
vendors to
keep the
modem cost
low.
tailored
product and
service
offerings
focused
primarily on
major
metropolitan
areas
employed a
tiered flat-rate
pricing strategy
support
spectrum
bands 1900 &
850 MHz
Data Revenue
$11.4 billion
(2007)
Data
Revenue
$11.06
billion
(2007)
20
Exhibit 3
3G Subscriber projections (mn)
EV-DO (A)WCDMA (B)Total (A+B)
Increase in number of
subscribers [(A+B)t -(A+B)t-1] =
D
2009
(E)
0.4
4.8
5.2
5.2
2010
(E)
1.3
13.7
15
9.8
2011
(E)
3.2
27.6
30.8
15.8
2012
(E)
5.4
43.9
49.3
18.5
21
2013
(E)
7.4
60.1
67.5
18.2
3G modem users (mn)
2G modems
3G modems (
C )
Inc in number of subscribers [(C)t -(C)t-
1]=E
2008
1.5
0
2009 (E)
1
2
2
2010 (E)
0.3
4.9
2.9
2011 (E)
8.4
3.5
2012 (E)
13.1
4.7
2013 (E)
22.4
9.3
Year
Inc in no of subscribers
(D+E)
2009 (E)
7.2
2010 (E)
12.7
2011 (E)
19.3
2012 (E)
23.2
2013 (E)
27.5
3G revenue projections (USD billion)
Handset
subscribers (USD
billion)
Modem Subscribers
(USD billion)
Total (USD
billion)
Total (INR,
1USD = Rs.
45)
2009
(E)
0.6
0.2
0.8
36000000000.
00
2010
(E)
2.5
0.6
3.1
139500000000
.00
22

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