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1. Executive Summary
In accordance with your instructions, we have undertaken the
Business valuation of Om Pharma Private Limited (OM).
OM is engaged primarily in manufacturing and marketing of
pharmaceutical and health care products.
OM manufactures formulation in therapeutic segments like Fertility,
contraception and Anesthesia.
Shareholder’s Value
Based on the assumptions put forth in para 10 , read with the limitations
mentioned in point no.11 and subject to confirmation of key factors,
Shareholders’ value of OM is calculated under three approaches- Income
,Market and Asset. Fair Value per share is in range of Rs. 148 to 271 per
share as mentioned below:
Income Market Asset
Approach approach approach
DCF Method Market Equity Book
Multiple Value method
Shareholders’ Value from operating 151.48 117.89
asset Rs. In Crore
Add: Non Operating assets Rs. In 72.68 72.68
Crore
Value available to shareholders from 224.16 190.57 124.96
total assets Rs. In Crore
Less: 4.96 4.96 4.96
Crystallization of Contingent liabilities
Rs. In Crore
219.20 185.61 119.65
Number of shares 60,76,160 60,76,160 60,76,160
Value per Equity share in Rs. 361 305 197
Less: Illiquidity Discount 25% 25% 25%
Fair Value per equity share 271 229 148
2. Introduction
We refer to our engagement letter dated ….. confirming our appointment as
independent valuer of Om Pharma Pvt Limited (OM) . In the following
paragraphs, we have summarised our Valuation analysis of the business of OM.
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Report on Valuation of Equity shares- Om Pharma Private Limited
3. Purpose of Valuation:
Based on discussion with the management, we understand that the OM’s
promoters are evaluating the possibility of divesting their stake in OM. In this
context , the management requires our assistance in determining the fair
value of equity shares.
4. Valuation Date :
The Analysis of Fair value of the equity of OM has been carried out as on 30th
November 2008.
5. Work Methodology
Our review has been solely made on the basis of following information/records
available to us.
• Annual reports of OM as on 31st December 07.
• Leading database sources, market research reports and other published
data
6. Industry Scenario
The value of India’s pharmaceutical industry nearly doubled from $3.2 billion in
2000 to more than $6.2 billion in 2005, or by an average of 12 percent annually
. According to the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India
(Assocham), the Indian pharmaceutical market is expected to grow at an
average annual rate of 13.6 percent during 2006-2010 to reach $9.5 billion in
sales by 2010.51 This growth is expected to be driven by:
The Indian Pharmaceutical market is 4th in volume and 13th in values globally .
The current size of the Indian Pharma market is reported to USD 7 billion and
has registered a growth of about 12% in 2007 ( IMS MAT Dec 07) . The market
is expected to witness accelerating growth , making India among the top 10
global market by 2015-16, with estimated market size of USD 20 billion. The
market remains dominated by acute therapies; however chronic segment like
cardiovascular, diabetes, central nervous system and especially segments like
oncology are growing faster than the market.
This highly lucrative market segment includes drugs for “chronic” or “lifestyle”
diseases have grown from 10 percent to 20 percent of the market in the mid-
1990s to between 25 and 35 percent of the market today. The demand for
these drugs is growing at a faster rate, at 18 percent, than domestic demand
Report on Valuation of Equity shares- Om Pharma Private Limited
for the acute drug segment (12 percent). India has often been called the
world’s diabetes capital and the rates of aliments like hypertension and high
cholesterol are increasing annually.
percent cheaper than in the West. Industry experts indicate that infrastructure
costs are 40 percent lower and fixed cost are estimated to be 12 percent to 20
percent less that in the United States and Western Europe. Consequently, India
can produce bulk drugs that cost 60 percent less that in the West and can open
a production plant in India 40 percent cheaper than in developed countries.
Because of this, India has become a hub for pharmaceutical research and
development and clinical trials for many leading foreign pharmaceutical
companies.
Weaknesses:
• Highly fragmented industry.
• Pending clarity in area pf patent with respect to data exclusivity and
compulsory licensing.
• Government price controls.
• Low margins.
• High tariffs and taxes.
• Substandard drugs and counterfeiting.
• Most Indian companies are small by world standards.
• High logistics costs.
• Lack of experience in drug discovery.
• Industry concentrated at lower end of value chain.
• Corruption.
• Weak domestic market.
• Low levels of per capita medical expenditure.
• High logistics costs.
• Lack of experience in drug discovery.
Source: CII, Intec.net, Financial Express, Bain & Company.
Government Policy:
The new Pharmaceutical policy has been pending for approval for last two years.
The draft policy has recommended price control for all medicines featuring in
Report on Valuation of Equity shares- Om Pharma Private Limited
OM has its registered office located at Kolkotta and corporate office at Mumbai.
OM does not have its own manufacturing facilities . It has outsourced its
manufacturing operations to third parties.
7.3 Strategies :
• OM continues its focus on improving work processes and investing in human
resources. A new web based Field force Automation system was successfully
introduced for assisting the sales team in timely collating relevant
information and improving field efficiency and productivity.
• OM is presently pursuing number of options to strengthen further its product
portfolio in its different niche and speciality segment.
8. Summarized Financials
8.1 Summarized Balance Sheet of FIL for the latest available two years is given
below:
Report on Valuation of Equity shares- Om Pharma Private Limited
Rs. In Crore.
Particulars 31- Dec 07 31-Dec 06
Sources of Funds
Share Capital 6.08 6.08
Reserves & Surplus 118.93 104.06
Shareholders funds 125.00 110.08
Secured Loans 0.18 0.25
Un Secured Loans 0.19 0.60
Deferred Tax Liability 0 0.12
Total Liabilities 125.37 111.04
Source: Audited statement for 31st March 2007, 31st March 2006 and 31st March
2005
8.2 Summarized Profit & Loss of FIL for the latest available two years is given
below:
(Rs. in Crore)
Source
9. Valuation Techniques
By its very nature, valuation work cannot be regarded as an exact science and
given the same set of facts and using the same assumptions, expert opinions
may differ due to the number of separate judgment decisions, which have to be
made. There can therefore be no standard formulae to establish an
indisputable value, although certain appropriate formulae are useful in
establishing reasonableness.
The Asset Based approach considers the cost of replacement, Equity book
value or liquidation value of an asset as an indication of the fair market
value of that asset.
Under this method book value of total assets and total liabilities as per
latest Audited Financial statement are considered for arriving at Equity book
value of the company. Adjustments are done for contingent liabilities which
might crystallized in future.
The method used is the discounted cash flow ("DCF") model. Using this
model, projected future cash flows are converted to a capital value at the
valuation date using a discount rate that reflects the inherent risk related to
the business operations and the industry.
The DCF model is considered to most accurately account for the magnitude
and timing of projected revenue growth and the capital additions required to
support that growth.
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Report on Valuation of Equity shares- Om Pharma Private Limited
The advantage of using the DCF approach is that the resulting valuation is
based on the Company's own expectations of future economic performance.
The DCF method is based on the premise that the value of a business is a
direct function of its cash generating ability. The DCF method values a
business by discounting its Free Cash Flows (“FCFs”) for a pre-determined
forecast period to the present value using a suitable discount rate.
FCFs projections for each year are derived from the financial model as
follows:
FCFs = after tax operating earnings of the Company + non-cash charges –
investments in working capital, capital equipment, property or any other
assets.
In the instant case, company does not have history of debt. Balance sheet
indicated very negligible amount of debt. In view of this we have selected
cah flow to equity model . Cah flow to equity model incorporate financing
related cashflow such as interest expense. Cashflow to equity reflects free
cashflow to equity shareholders.
The value of the business in segregated into two time periods, for the
explicit forecast period and thereafter.
Therefore:
Value = Present value of cash flow during explicit forecast period + Present
value of the cash flow after explicit forecast period.
The value after the explicit forecast period is referred to as the Terminal
Value or sometimes the Residual Value. The Terminal / Residual Value of a
Company as a going concern can be calculated in one of the following ways:
Report on Valuation of Equity shares- Om Pharma Private Limited
Adoption of Asset approach is mainly to get idea about minimum value per
share of OM. Income approach and market approach were used to identify
the range within which value of OM lies.
Since OM have hardly any debt in its Balance sheet, we have adopted
Valuation model of Cashflow to Equity and outflow of Interest and tax has
been projected in cashflow after analysing past trend.
b) Growth Rate
Explicit period growth rate:
In absence of information related to financials of company for last three to
five years, we could not arrived at historic growth rate. In view of this we
have taken inflation rate of 5% as growth rate for explicit period
c) Discount Rate
Since company has very low debt history as well as low level of current
debt , we have decided to adopt cashflow to Equity model. Since cashflow to
equity model is adopted for valuation, we have taken cost of equity as
discount rate.
Generally, for determining the cost of equity, the Capital Asset Pricing Model
(“CAPM”) can be employed. CAPM postulates that:
The return on a stock = Risk Free Return + Beta x Equity Risk Premium of
the Market + Company specific risk premium
Interest rate of 8.50% taken as risk free rate of return – 10 years long term
govt bond.
e) β Beta: 0.70
The beta coefficient (or “beta”) essentially represents the relative volatility of
returns on the stock vis-à-vis returns on the market. Beta measures a
stock’s systematic market risk, i.e. sensitivity of the scrip to the market,
which cannot be diversified away. A beta greater than one implies that any
change in the market index results in a greater percentage change in the
market price of the Company.
The valuation of OM has been carried out by adopting all the three
approaches of Valuation
• Income approach
• Market approach
• Asset Approach
Income approach:
Under Income approach we have adopted DCF method. This method adopts a
financial model of business for a specific forecast period. Based on the
assumptions contained in Para 10 above, a normative Profit & Loss account
has been projected on the basis of which the Discount Cash flow model has
been evolved. (Exhibit II)
The Free Cash Flow is calculated for two time periods i.e. specific forecast
period (also called the primary period) and thereafter (also called the
Residual Value). The Residual value gives recognition to the fact that after
primary period considered in the forecast period, the FCF do not reach an end
because the business will continue to be available for exploitation even after
the primary period.
Shareholder’s Value
Based on the assumptions put forth in Exhibit I, read with the limitations
mentioned in point no.12 and subject to confirmation of key factors,
Shareholders’ Value of OM at a perpetuity growth rate of 2% and calculated
considering discount rate of 16.10% is Rs. 219.20 Crore
Rs. In Crore
Particulars Value
Shareholders’ Value 151.48
Add Non operating assets
Add: Investments as on 31st Dec 2007 72.68
Less: Crystallisation of contingent liability 4.96
Shareholders Value 219.20
Particulars
Shareholders Value Rs in Crore 219.20
Equity Share 60,76,160
Market approach:
Report on Valuation of Equity shares- Om Pharma Private Limited
Asset approach:
Under this approach we have calculated value of OM by considering total
assets and liabilities as per Audited Financials of the company as on 31st
December 2007. The Balance sheet values are adjusted for contingent
liabilities.
Value per Equity share comes to Rs.148
12. Disclaimer
b) The Report is being provided solely for the benefit of “OM” and is not on behalf
of, and shall not confer rights or remedies upon, any other person other than
“OM”. The Report may not be used or relied upon by, or disclosed, referred to,
or communicated by “OM” (in whole or in part) to any third party for any
purpose whatsoever except with the prior written consent of us in each
instance.
c) In furnishing the Report, we reserves the right to amend or replace the Report
at any time. Our views are necessarily based on economic, market, and other
conditions currently in effect, and the information made available to us, as of
the date hereof. It should be understood that subsequent developments may
affect our views and that we do not have any obligation to update, revise, or
reaffirm the views expressed in the Report. Nothing contained within the
Report is or should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the
future.
f) The valuation contained herein is purely for discussion purposes and is not
intended to be the price with which OM should approach prospective sellers/
buyer of shares of OM. Our analysis are not and do not purport to be appraisals
or otherwise reflective of the price at which the Shares could actually be
bought or sold.
12. Acknowledgement
We are thankful to the Management & Staff of OM for their kind co-operation
extended to us during the course of our assignment.
Yours faithfully,