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Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile and space programs at an almost feverish pace with
impressive achievements. The Iranians have upgraded their ballistic missiles to become satellite
launchers. To orbit a satellite is a highly sophisticated endeavor. It requires proficiency in stage
separation and advanced guidance and control systems to insert the satellite into a stable, desired
trajectory. They took the Shahab, extended it a bit, added a new lightweight second stage, and now they
have the Safir space launch vehicle. The very capability to build a two-stage satellite launcher, rather than
the usual three-stage rockets for space-lift vehicles, is quit remarkable by itself - an impressive
engineering achievement.
In spite of the Missile Technology Control Regime and in the face of sanctions, Iran has succeeded in
acquiring the needed infrastructure and to raise a cadre of proficient scientists and engineers backed by
academic research institutes. Iranian missile technology now seems to be more advanced than that of
North Korea.
The solid-propellant Sejil missile signifies a technological and strategic breakthrough. This missile already
poses a threat to a number of European Union countries. Based on its demonstrated achievements in
solid propulsion and staging, Iran will face no significant hurdle in upscaling the Sejil into a compact,
survivable intermediate-range ballistic missile. A range of 3,600 km. will be sufficient to put most of the
EU under threat.
Contrary to a recent report by U.S. and Russian scientists published by the EastWest Institute in
Washington, D.C., the solid-propellant technology demonstrated by the Sejil gives the Iranian a key for
longer-range missiles that could be deployed in a survivable manner from Western Iran. The report claims
that it will take the Iranians just six years to develop a nuclear warhead that could be carried by a ballistic
missile. By that time the Iranians might already have the appropriate missiles to carry such warheads.
The West would do well to start preparing its defenses right now.
They have the engineers to understand what they are doing. They have the system engineers to engineer fixes
and they have the program managers to run the whole program. They have demonstrated the ability to
manufacture a 14-ton solid propellant rocket motor, and they have the infrastructure they need. To build such a
rocket you need big, expensive installations. They are not available for sale, they are controlled by the Missile
Technology Control Regime, but Iran has managed to acquire them. All of this infrastructure is in Iran. Another
point on the proficiency of their engineers: I received a list of Iranian technical publications from the American
point on the proficiency of their engineers: I received a list of Iranian technical publications from the American
Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, all of them dealing with big solid propellant rocket motors.
The Iranians conducted six major tests of multi-stage missiles in eighteen months by two different teams from
two different test ranges with all the instrumentation and flight control guidance system telemetry. When there is
a challenge, they overcome the challenge.
The Iranian defense minister has spoken of two missiles: the Kadr I that goes 2,000 km. and the Sejil that goes
more than 2,000 km. Why is 2,000 km. significant? Less than 2,000 km. does not threaten Europe. Beyond that
you are starting to threaten Europe.
Two weeks after the EastWest Institute report came out, Ted Postol of MIT, one of its authors, published an
addendum to the report. Based on data he presented, our calculations show that the Sejil has an actual range of
about 2,500 km. Such a range could reach Warsaw and, indeed, six European Union countries: Poland, Slovakia,
Rumania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Greece. The Tabriz launch area in Iran is as big as Azerbeijan, bigger than
Israel and half of Jordan. It's about 50,000 sq. km., full of mountains, valleys, and canyons. You can hide
thousands of ballistic missiles there with a very high probability of survival. So the capability to make a
survivable missile that can threaten Europe now exists in Iran.
Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile programs and a space program at a feverish rate. No one else, except
the Chinese perhaps, is working at such a speed. In spite of all the sanctions, the Iranians have managed to
acquire all the needed infrastructure to make advanced missiles and develop a technology cadre. They are
building up technological universities. They have been in the business for twenty years.
The solid propellant Sejil is the watershed breakthrough. The Iranians have the technology right now to produce
an intermediate range ballistic missile that can threaten Europe. Whether they do it or not involves the question
of intention, but they are capable of doing it. The EastWest Institute report estimates that it will take Iran about
six years to fit a nuclear warhead on a missile. If this is true, then the time to start missile defense in Europe is
now. The fact that the Iranians are building that capability is something that should be brought to public view.
The distance from Iran to Israel remains the same no matter what missiles the Iranians develop. From an Israeli
anti-missile defense perspective, the threat remains more or less the same, whether it's a Shahab III or a Sejil.
But while the implications of Iran's continued missile development are not so great from an Israeli point of view,
they may be quite significant for those who live beyond the Middle East.
* * *
Uzi Rubin has been involved in Israeli military research, development, and engineering programs for almost forty
years. Between 1991 and 1999 he served as head of Israel's Missile Defense Organization, and in that capacity
he oversaw the development of Israel's Arrow anti-missile defense system. He was awarded the Israel Defense
Prize in 1996. This Jerusalem Issue Brief is based on his presentation to the Institute for Contemporary Affairs in
Jerusalem on August 6, 2009.