Statistics 430

Midterm #1 Solutions
Emil Pitkin
October 24, 2010

1
Because A and B are disjoint, P (A ∩ B) = P (A ∩ B ∩ C) = 0. Because A and C are
independent, P (A ∩ C) = P (A)P (C).
P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − (P (A ∩ C) + P (A ∩ B) + P (B ∩ C)) + P (A ∩ B ∩ C)
= P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − P (A)P (B) − P (B|C)P (C)
= .3 + .4 + .5 − .3 × .5 − .1 × .5
= 1

2
(10)
The denominator of each expression should be 5
, since we select 5 of 10 possible shoes.

a
We will wind up with no pairs when we choose exactly one shoe from each of the 5 pairs.
From each pair, we could have chosen either the left or right shoe. The answer is therefore
25
(10) = 252
32
= .127
5

b
(5)
Of the 5 pairs, first choose the one which will be( selected
) in full ( 1
choices). Then choose
4
the pair from which no shoes will be chosen ( 1 remaining choices). We must choose
one shoe from each of the remaining 3 pairs (2 × 2 × 2 ways). The answer is therefore
(5)(4)
× 23
1 1
(10) = 160
252
= .635
5

c
()
Of the 5 pairs, first choose the two which will be selected
(3 ) in full ( 52 choices). Then choose
the two pairs from which no shoes will be chosen ( 2 remaining choices). We must choose

1
 (5)(3)
×2
one shoe from the remaining pair (2 ways). The answer is therefore 2
(210) = 60
252
= .238
5
Alternate solution: when you choose 5 shoes, either 0, 1 or 2 pairs match. So P(2 pairs) =
1 - P(1 pair) - P(0 pairs) = 1 − .127 − .635 = .238 .

3
a
Because the highest proportion of white balls is found in Box 3, I would guess that the white
ball had come from the third box. Since the boxes are chosen randomly, P (Box i) = 13 . Use
Bayes’ rule:
P (W |Box 3)P (Box3)
P (Box 3|W ) = ∑3
i=1 P (W |Box i)P (Box i)
3
= 7
1 2 3
+ +
3 5 7
45
= = .3688
122

b
Because the highest proportion of black balls is found in Box 1, I would guess that the black
ball had come from the first box. Again use Bayes’ rule:
P (B|Box 1)P (Box1)
P (Box 1|B) = ∑3
i=1 P (B|Box i)P (Box i)
2
= 3
2 3 4
+ +
3 5 7
70
= = .3627
193

P (Win) = P (Win|white ball)P (white ball) + P (Win|black ball)P (black ball)

( ) ( )
45 1 1 2 3 70 1 2 3 4
= ∗ + + + ∗ + +
122 3 3 5 7 193 3 3 5 7
= .3651

4
a
When the highest number obtained by a boy is i, we know that the other 3 boys must have
received 3 of the lower i − 1 numbers. Because the 4 boys could have obtained any of the

2
(8)
4
possible combinations of numbers,
(i−3)
P (X = i) = (38)
4

The following table enumerates the possible values and associated probabilities explicitly.

i P (X = i)

1-3 0
(3 )
1
4 (38) = = .278
4
70
(4)
4
5 (38) = = .1389
4
70
(5)
10
6 (38) = = .0595
4
70
(6)
20
7 (38) = = .0198
4
70
(7)
35
8 (38) = = .0040
4
70

∑
8
E[X] = iP (X = i)
i=1
4 ∗ 1 + 5 ∗ 4 + 6 ∗ 10 + 7 ∗ 20 + 8 ∗ 35
=
70
504
= = 7.2
70

V ar[X] = E[(X − E[X])2 ]

∑8
= (i − 7.2)2 P (X = i)
i=1
(4 − 7.2)2 ∗ 1 + (5 − 7.2)2 ∗ 4 + (6 − 7.2)2 ∗ 10 + (7 − 7.2)2 ∗ 20 + (8 − 7.2)2 ∗ 35
=
70
= .96

3
5
a
A wins the game on A’s fourth flip if A and B both flip tails on each of their respective first
3 games, that is, if heads follows 6 consecutive tails. We can multiply probabilities since the
flips are independent.
( )6 ( )
3 1 729
P(A wins on the fourth flip) = ∗ = = .04449
4 4 16, 384

b
Let PA denote the probability of A’s winning the game when A flips first. Let PB denote
the probability of B’s winning the game when B flips first. Notice that PA = PB , since A
and B flip heads with the same probability. Condition on the outcome of the first flip:
PA = P (A wins|H)P (H) + P (A wins|T )P (T )
1 3
= 1 ∗ + (1 − PB ) ∗
4 4
1 3
= + (1 − PA ) ∗
4 4

4
from which it follows that PA = .
7
Alternate solution: denote∪the event “A wins on A’s ith flip” by Fi . Then the probability
that A wins is equal to P ( ∞ i=1 Fi ). Since A wins on A’s ith flip if A flips a head on
its ith flip, and both A and B had flipped tails on their previous respective i − 1 flips,
( )2(i−1)
3 1
P (Fi ) = ∗ .
4 4
∪
∞
P (A wins) = P ( Fi )
i=1
∑
∞
= P (Fi )
i=1
∑∞ ( )2(i−1)
1 3
=
4 i=1
4
∞ ( )2i
1∑ 3
=
4 i=0
4
∑∞ ( )i
1 9
=
4 16
(
i=0
)
1 1
=
4 1 − 16
9

4
=
7