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Operations Management can be understood as an area of management which is concerned with the
government of system, processes and functions that manufacture goods and renders services to the
end user, to provide desired utilities to them while adhering to other objectives of the concern, i.e.
efficiency, effectiveness, and productivity.
In simpler terms we can say operations is the function in an organization that creates goods and
services. Operations Management is both a science and art which creates and delivers goods and
services to customers.
Customer Service: The primary objective of operations management, is to utilize the resources of the
organization, to create such products or services that satisfy the needs of the consumers, by
providing “right thing at the right price, place and time”.
Resource Utilization: To make the best possible use of the organisation’s resources to satisfy the
wants of the consumers, is another important objective of the operations management.
a. Location of Facilities: The most important decision with respect to the operations
management is the selection of location, a huge investment is made by the firm in acquiring
the building, arranging and installing plant and machinery. And if the location is not suitable,
then all of this investment will be called as a sheer wastage of money, time, and efforts.
b. So, while choosing the location for the operations, company’s expansion plans,
diversification plans, the supply of materials, weather conditions, transportation facility and
everything else which is essential in this regard should be taken into consideration.
c. Product Design: Product design is all about an in-depth analysis of the customer’s
requirements and giving a proper shape to the idea, which thoroughly fulfils those
requirements. It is a complete process of identification of needs of the consumers to the final
creation of a product which involves designing and marketing, product development, and
introduction of the product to the market.
d. Process Design: It is the planning and decision making of the entire workflow for
transforming the raw material into finished goods, It involves decisions regarding the choice
of technology, process flow analysis, process selection, and so forth.
e. Plant Layout: As the name signifies, plant layout is the grouping and arrangement of the
personnel, machines, equipment, storage space, and other facilities, which are used in the
production process, to economically produce the desired output, both quality wise and
quantity wise.
f. Material Handling: Material Handling is all about holding and treatment of material within
and outside the organization. It is concerned with the movement of material from one go
down to another, from go down to machine and from one process to another, along with the
packing and storing of the product.
g. Material Management: The part of management which deals with the procurement, use and
control of the raw material, which is required during the process of production. Its aim is to
acquire, transport and store the material in such a way to minimize the related cost. It tends
to find out new sources of supply and develop a good relationship with the suppliers to
ensure an ongoing supply of material.
h. Quality Control: Quality Control is the systematic process of keeping an intended level of
quality in the goods and services, in which the organization deals. It attempts to prevent
defects and make corrective actions (if they find any defects during the quality control
process), to ensure that the desired quality is maintained, at reasonable prices.
i. Maintenance Management: Machinery, tools and equipment play a crucial role in the process
of production. So, if they are not available at the time of need, due to any reason like
downtime or breakage etc. then the entire process will suffer.
Hence, it is the responsibility of the operations manager to keep the plant in good condition, as well
as keeping the machines and other equipment in the right state, so that the firm can use them in
their optimal capacity.
In operations management, the operations manager plays an effective role as a decision maker, with
respect to the decisions regarding – What resources are needed and in what amounts? Where will
the process take place? Who will perform the work? When are the resources required? How will the
products be designed and developed?
Service is an action carried out to satisfy a requirement; it does not directly produce a
physical product.
VALUE CHAIN
1. What Is a Value Chain?
A value chain is a business model that describes the full range of activities needed to create a
product or service. For companies that produce goods, a value chain comprises the steps that
involve bringing a product from conception to distribution, and everything in between—such as
procuring raw materials, manufacturing functions, and marketing activities.
Manufacturing companies create value by acquiring raw materials and using them to produce
something useful. Retailers bring together a range of products and present them in a way that's
convenient to customers, sometimes supported by services such as fitting rooms or personal
shopper advice. And insurance companies offer policies to customers that are underwritten by
larger re-insurance policies. Here, they're packaging these larger policies in a customer-friendly
way, and distributing them to a mass audience.
The value that's created and captured by a company is the profit margin:
The more value an organization creates, the more profitable it is likely to be. And when you
provide more value to your customers, you build competitive advantage.
Understanding how your company creates value, and looking for ways to add more value, are
critical elements in developing a competitive strategy. Michael Porter discussed this in his
influential 1985 book "Competitive Advantage," in which he first introduced the concept of the
value chain.
A value chain is a set of activities that an organization carries out to create value for its
customers. Porter proposed a general-purpose value chain that companies can use to examine all
of their activities, and see how they're connected. The way in which value chain activities are
performed determines costs and affects profits, so this tool can help you understand the sources
of value for your organization.
Primary activities relate directly to the physical creation, sale, maintenance and support of a
product or service. They consist of the following:
2.1.1. Inbound logistics – These are all the processes related to receiving, storing,
and distributing inputs internally. Your supplier relationships are a key factor
in creating value here.
2.1.2. Operations – These are the transformation activities that change inputs into
outputs that are sold to customers. Here, your operational systems create
value.
2.1.3. Outbound logistics – These activities deliver your product or service to your
customer. These are things like collection, storage, and distribution systems,
and they may be internal or external to your organization.
2.1.4. Marketing and sales – These are the processes you use to persuade clients to
purchase from you instead of your competitors. The benefits you offer, and
how well you communicate them, are sources of value here.
2.1.5. Service – These are the activities related to maintaining the value of your
product or service to your customers, once it's been purchased.
These activities support the primary functions above. In our diagram, the dotted lines show that
each support, or secondary, activity can play a role in each primary activity. For example,
procurement supports operations with certain activities, but it also supports marketing and sales
with other activities.
2.2.1. Procurement (purchasing) – This is what the organization does to get the
resources it needs to operate. This includes finding vendors and negotiating
best prices.
2.2.2. Human resource management – This is how well a company recruits, hires,
trains, motivates, rewards, and retains its workers. People are a significant
source of value, so businesses can create a clear advantage with good HR
practices.
2.2.3. Technological development – These activities relate to managing and
processing information, as well as protecting a company's knowledge base.
Minimizing information technology costs, staying current with technological
advances, and maintaining technical excellence are sources of value creation.
2.2.4. Infrastructure – These are a company's support systems, and the functions
that allow it to maintain daily operations. Accounting, legal, administrative,
and general management are examples of necessary infrastructure that
businesses can use to their advantage.
Companies use these primary and support activities as "building blocks" to create a valuable product
or service.
To identify and understand your company's value chain, follow these steps.
3.1. Step 1 – Identify sub activities for each primary activity. For each primary activity,
determine which specific sub activities create value. There are three different types of
sub activities:
3.1.1. Direct activities create value by themselves. For example, in a book
publisher's marketing and sales activity, direct sub activities include making
sales calls to bookstores, advertising, and selling online.
3.1.2. Indirect activities allow direct activities to run smoothly. For the book
publisher's sales and marketing activity, indirect sub activities include
managing the sales force and keeping customer records.
3.1.3. Quality assurance activities ensure that direct and indirect activities meet the
necessary standards. For the book publisher's sales and marketing activity,
this might include proofreading and editing advertisements.
3.2. Step 2 – Identify sub activities for each support activity. For each of the Human
Resource Management, Technology Development and Procurement support activities,
determine the sub activities that create value within each primary activity. For example,
consider how human resource management adds value to inbound logistics, operations,
outbound logistics, and so on. As in Step 1, look for direct, indirect, and quality assurance
sub activities.
In the book Operations Strategy, authors Nigel Slack and Michael Lewis define the term.
“Operations strategy is the total pattern of decisions which shape the long-term
capabilities of any type of operations and their contribution to the overall strategy,” they
write.
Technology and business models are rapidly changing, so businesses must keep pace
and look to the future.
“Those who get stuck on their own paradigms…perish,” says Tim Lewko, CEO and
Managing Partner of Thinking Dimensions Global.
Operations strategies drive a company’s operations, the part of the business that
produces and distributes goods and services. Operations strategy underlies overall
business strategy, and both are critical for a company to compete in an ever-changing
market. With an effective ops strategy, operations management professionals can
optimize the use of resources, people, processes, and technology.
In the book Operations Strategy, authors Nigel Slack and Michael Lewis define the term.
“Operations strategy is the total pattern of decisions which shape the long-term
capabilities of any type of operations and their contribution to the overall strategy,” they
write.
Technology and business models are rapidly changing, so businesses must keep pace
and look to the future.
“Those who get stuck on their own paradigms…perish,” says Tim Lewko, CEO and
Managing Partner of Thinking Dimensions Global.
This article will provide an overview of operations strategy including purpose, examples,
types, process, and how to write a plan. You’ll also hear in-depth insights from seven
professionals, including a look at what the future may bring.
To exist in the market, you need to have acceptable quality, price, reputation/years in
business, and reliability. To actually win more orders in the market, the factors change a
bit. You need winning quality, price, speed of delivery, consistency of delivery, and
reliability.
These factors combine like this to provide an operations strategy framework, as outlined
by lean transformation consultant Anand Subramanian:
In a similar vein, Slack and his co-authors outlined five performance objectives in their
2004 book, Operations Management:
Authors Henry Mintzberg and James A. Waters wrote about how organizations form
strategies in their 1985 book, Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent. Organizations start
with an intended strategy, but only some of that is realized through deliberate strategy.
Some intentions are left unrealized, such as those that didn’t adequately consider
operational feasibility. Meanwhile, emergent strategies develop as patterns of actions
taken in the organization — most often by the operations department. The deliberate
strategies and emergent strategies feed into the realized strategies. This process shows
the importance of operations details in the big picture.
1.Choose the Right People: Select those with the right knowledge to compile
the operations strategy plan, sometimes just called an operations plan.
Some businesses provide more strategy than others in their ops strategy
plan.
2. Study the Overall Business Strategy Plan: Sometimes the operations
strategy plan is included as a section of the overall business plan. In any
case, the ops strategy plan should align with the business plan.
3. Develop Measurable Operations Goals: These should match up with the
business plan. Don’t do KPIs in a vacuum. Ensure that stakeholders have a
say and agree to the numbers.
4. Gather Key People to Brainstorm Strategies: Work on strategies
(approaches to reach goals) and underlying tactics (specific steps and
tasks to implement the strategy).
5. Outline Your Major Points to Maintain Your Plan’s Focus: Use headings,
subheadings, and bulleted lists for clear organization. These will carry
over to your fully written plan, providing clear structure and easy
scanning. Your plan might have elements of a SWOT analysis: strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.
6. Keep Your Audience in Mind: Write so that they will understand it. The
plan is all about communication.
7. Include an Index: Use this for easy scanning of the plan and its sections.
8. Use an Appendix: Use this for supplementary material or for items too
detailed for the whole audience.
9. Include the Operations Budget: Include it, or cross-reference or cross-link
it in your operations strategy plan. Show the rationale for key budget
items, especially large expenses.
10. Include a “Stage of Development” Section: Give an overview of the
current state of operations and what you’re trying to accomplish and
improve. Provide a high-level view of how you make your product, your
supply chain, and quality control. Identify risks and how you’ll monitor
them.
11. Include a Production Process Section: This goes into detail on the daily
production process, and demonstrates that you’ve worked out the
necessary specifics. For manufacturing, you would list plant details,
equipment, assets, materials, special requirements, inventory, and quality
control steps. For a startup, you might include prototype and testing
details.
12. If Necessary, Divide Other Sections by Product Family: You can also
divide them by product, service, or different areas of operations. You
might include overall strategies and tactics and/or consider them by
section.
13. Use Flowcharts: Use these images and other graphics to make it more
easily understandable.
14. Build in Flexibility: Explain how you might adjust operations based on a
changing market.
15. Regularly Monitor Your Goals: Do this to see how your strategies and
tactics are working. Adjust as necessary to keep ahead of the curve. A
strong operations strategy plan is key to your success.
Business Strategy
Definition: Business strategy can be understood as the course of action or set of decisions which
assist the entrepreneurs in achieving specific business objectives. It is nothing but a master plan that
the management of a company implements to secure a competitive position in the market, carry on
its operations, please customers and achieve the desired ends of the business.
In business, it is the long-range sketch of the desired image, direction and destination of the
organization. It is a scheme of corporate intent and action, which is carefully planned and flexibly
designed with the purpose of:
1. Achieving effectiveness,
2. Perceiving and utilising opportunities,
3. Mobilising resources,
4. Securing an advantageous position,
5. Meeting challenges and threats,
6. Directing efforts and behaviour and
7. Gaining command over the situation.
A business strategy is a set of competitive moves and actions that a business uses to attract
customers, compete successfully, strengthening performance, and achieve organisational goals. It
outlines how business should be carried out to reach the desired ends.
Business strategy equips the top management with an integrated framework, to discover, analyze
and exploit beneficial opportunities, to sense and meet potential threats, to make optimum use of
resources and strengths, to counterbalance weakness.
It reflects the combination and pattern of business moves, actions and hidden goals,
in the strategic interest of the concern, considering various business divisions,
product lines, customer groups, technologies and so forth.
1.2. Expansion Strategy: Also called a growth strategy, wherein the company’s
business is reevaluated so as to extend the capacity and scope of business
and considerably increasing the overall investment in the businesses.
In the expansion strategy, the enterprise looks for considerable growth,
either from the existing business or product market or by entering a new
business, which may or may not be related to the firm’s existing business.
Basically, it encompasses diversification, merger and acquisitions,
strategic alliance, etc.
1.3. Retrenchment Strategy: This is pursued when the company opts for
decreasing its scope of activity or operations. In retrenchment strategy, a
number of business activities are retrenched (cut or reduced) so as to
minimize cost, as a response to the firm’s financial crisis. Sometimes, the
business itself is dropped by selling out or liquidation.
Therefore, areas where there is a problem is identified and reasons for
those problems are diagnosed, after that corrective or remedial steps are
taken to solve those problems. So, when the firm concentrates on the
ways to reverse the process of decline, it is called a turnaround strategy.
However, if it drops the loss-making venture or part of the company or
minimizes the functions undertaken, it is called a divestment or
divestiture strategy. If nothing works, then the firm may choose for
closing down the firm, it is called a liquidation strategy.
1.4. Combination Strategy: In this strategy, the enterprise combines any or all of
the three corporate strategies, so as to fulfil the firm’s requirements. The firm
may choose to stabilize some areas of activity while expanding the other and
retrenching the rest (loss-making ones).
The primary focus on corporate-level strategies is on the “directing” the
managers on ‘how to manage the scope of various business activities’
and ‘how to make optimum utilization of firm’s resources (material,
money, men, machinery), etc. on different business activities’.
2. Business level strategy: The strategies that relate to a particular business are known
as business-level strategies. It is developed by the general managers, who convert
mission and vision into concrete strategies. It is like a blueprint of the entire business.
Business level strategies refer to the combined set of moves and actions taken with
an aim of offering value to the customers and developing a competitive advantage,
by using the firm’s core competencies, in the individual product or service market. It
determines the market position of the enterprise, in relation to its rivals.
Business-Level Strategies are mainly concerned with the firms having multiple
businesses and each business is considered as Strategic Business Unit (SBU).
It determines how the firm is going to compete in the market within each Line of
Business, i.e. SBU. Further, it focuses on how the firm will compete successfully in
each line of business and how to effectively manage the interest and operations of a
specific unit.
So, these strategies are the course of action selected by a firm for each line of
business or SBU individually and intend to attain competitive advantage, in separate
lines of business, which the firm is having in its portfolio currently.
Strategies at this level are concerned with meeting competition, defending market
share while making a profit.
A firm is said to have a competitive advantage if it can attract the target customers,
as well as survive the competitive forces better, as compared to the rivals.
To gain cost leadership, firms often follow forward, backward and horizontal
integration.
2.1.1. Ways to achieve Cost leadership
2.1.1.1. Quick demand forecasting for the product or service.
2.1.1.2. Effective utilization of the firm’s resources to avoid
wastage.
2.1.1.3. Attaining economies of scale which results in lower per-
unit cost.
2.1.1.4. Investing in high-end technology for smart working.
2.1.1.5. Product standardization for mass production, which
leads to economies of scale.
2.2. Differentiation: As the name suggests, differentiation strategy aims at
producing and offering industry-wide distinctive products and services to the
customers, so as to target price-insensitive customers.
This strategy is also directed for the broad mass market, which encompasses
the development of a unique product. Unique means uniqueness with
respect to design, brand image, specifications, customer service, technology
used, etc.
Further, this strategy may or may not lead to competitive advantage, mainly
because the customer’s needs are satisfied by standard products or if the
rivals imitate the product or service quickly.
Hence, the strategy should be followed after proper market research and
study of the buyers to ascertain their needs and preferences and adding
differentiating features to the product.
2.2.1. Ways to achieve Differentiation
2.2.1.1. Providing utility to the customers that match their taste
and preference.
2.2.1.2. Increasing product performance.
2.2.1.3. Product innovation
2.2.1.4. Setting up product prices on the basis of differentiated
features of the product and affordability of the
customers.
2.3. Focus: This strategy is used by the firms to produce products and services,
which fulfills the need of small consumer groups. The strategy relies on the
segment of the industry which is considerable in size, higher growth potential
and not important to the success of the rivals.
This is commonly used by small or medium-sized enterprises. This strategy
works only when consumers have varied tastes and competitors does not try
to specialize in that particular segment.
2.3.1. Ways to achieve Focus
2.3.1.1. Choosing a particular niche, often avoided by cost
leaders and differentiators.
2.3.1.2. Excel in catering to the specific niche.
2.3.1.3. High-efficiency generation to serve those niche.
2.3.1.4. Creating new ways for the value chain management.
Business-Level Strategy shows the choices made by the firm with regard to the
way in which the firm contemplates to compete in the market.
The firm’s core competencies should focus on the needs and wants of the customers,
with an aim or attaining extraordinary returns. And to attain this, business-level
strategies play an important role.
Functional Level Strategy is concerned with operational level decision making, called
tactical decisions, for various functional areas such as production, marketing,
research and development, finance, personnel and so forth.
As these decisions are taken within the framework of business strategy, strategists
provide proper direction and suggestions to the functional level managers relating to
the plans and policies to be opted by the business, for successful implementation.
A business strategy is a combination of proactive actions on the part of management, for the
purpose of enhancing the company’s market position and overall performance and reactions to
unexpected developments and new market conditions.
The maximum part of the company’s present strategy is a result of formerly initiated actions and
business approaches, but when market conditions take an unanticipated turn, the company requires
a strategic reaction to cope with contingencies. Hence, for unforeseen development, a part of the
business strategy is formulated as a reasoned response.
Strategy Formulation
Definition: Strategy Formulation is an analytical process of selection of the best suitable course of
action to meet the organizational objectives and vision. It is one of the steps of the strategic
management process. The strategic plan allows an organization to examine its resources, provides a
financial plan and establishes the most appropriate action plan for increasing profits.
It is examined through SWOT analysis. SWOT is an acronym for strength, weakness, opportunity and
threat. The strategic plan should be informed to all the employees so that they know the company’s
objectives, mission and vision. It provides direction and focus to the employees.
Corporate level strategy: This level outlines what you want to achieve: growth, stability, acquisition
or retrenchment. It focuses on what business you are going to enter the market.
Business level strategy: This level answers the question of how you are going to compete. It plays a
role in those organization which have smaller units of business and each is considered as the
strategic business unit (SBU).
Functional level strategy: This level concentrates on how an organization is going to grow. It defines
daily actions including allocation of resources to deliver corporate and business level strategies.
Hence, all organizations have competitors, and it is the strategy that enables one business to
become more successful and established than the other.
Competitive Strategy
Competitive Strategy can be defined as the firm’s long term action plan that formulated by
considering several external factors, that helps the company to achieve competitive advantage,
increase the share in the market and overpower rivals. Competitive advantage is the result of the
firm’s excellence in performing activities.
The firm’s external environment, has the potential to influence the company’s internal environment,
especially the economic and technical elements. The company should have an idea of its market
position, in relation to its competitors, which assists the company in competing in the market.
A competitive strategy is used to attract customers, gain an edge over its competitors,
increase market share and strengthen its position, and expand the business to a larger
scale.
DEMAND FORECASTING
3.3. Definition: Demand Forecasting refers to the process of predicting the future demand for the firm’s
product. In other words, demand forecasting is comprised of a series of steps that involves the
anticipation of demand for a product in future under both controllable and non-controllable
factors.
The business world is characterized by risk and uncertainty, and most of the business decisions
are taken under this scenario. An organization come across several risks, both internal or
external to the business operations such as technology, attrition, unrest, employee grievances,
recession, inflation, modifications in the government laws, etc.
3.4. Predicting the future demand for a product helps the organization in making decisions in one of
the following areas:
2.1. Planning and scheduling the production and acquiring the inputs accordingly.
2.2. Making the provisions for finances.
2.3. Formulating a pricing strategy.
2.4. Planning advertisement and implementing it.
3. The objective of demand forecasting is attained only when the forecasting is done systematically
and scientifically. Thus, the following steps in demand forecasting are followed to facilitate a
systematic estimation of future demand for product:
Thus, demand forecasting is a systematic process that assumes greater significance in large-scale
producing firms. Demand forecasting may not be a serious issue for the small scale firms which
supply a small portion of total demand or produces the product that caters to the short demand
or seasonal demand. Such firms can plan their production on the basis of the business skills and
their past experiences.
The demand forecasting finds its significance where the large-scale production is
involved. Such firms may often face difficulties in obtaining a fairly accurate estimation of
future demand. Thus, it is essential to forecast demand systematically and scientifically to
arrive at desired objective. Therefore, the following steps are taken to facilitate a
systematic demand forecasting:
4.1.1. Specifying the Objective: The objective for which the demand forecasting is to be
done must be clearly specified. The objective may be defined in terms of; long-term
or short-term demand, the whole or only the segment of a market for a firm’s
product, overall demand for a product or only for a firm’s own product, firm’s overall
market share in the industry, etc. The objective of the demand must be determined
before the process of demand forecasting begins as it will give direction to the whole
research.
4.1.2. Determining the Time Perspective: On the basis of the objective set, the demand
forecast can either be for a short-period, say for the next 2-3 year or a long period.
While forecasting demand for a short period (2-3 years), many determinants of
demand can be assumed to remain constant or do not change significantly. While in
the long run, the determinants of demand may change significantly. Thus, it is
essential to define the time perspective, i.e., the time duration for which the demand
is to be forecasted.
4.1.3. Making a Choice of Method for Demand Forecasting: Once the objective is set and
the time perspective has been specified the method for performing the forecast is
selected. There are several methods of demand forecasting falling under two
categories; survey methods and statistical methods.
The Survey method includes consumer survey and opinion poll methods, and the
statistical methods include trend projection, barometric and econometric methods.
Each method varies from one another in terms of the purpose of forecasting, type of
data required, availability of data and time frame within which the demand is to be
forecasted. Thus, the forecaster must select the method that best suits his
requirement.
4.1.4. Collection of Data and Data Adjustment: Once the method is decided upon, the next
step is to collect the required data either primary or secondary or both. The primary
data are the first-hand data which has never been collected before. While the
secondary data are the data already available. Often, data required is not available
and hence the data are to be adjusted, even manipulated, if necessary with a purpose
to build a data consistent with the data required.
4.1.5. Estimation and Interpretation of Results: Once the required data are collected and
the demand forecasting method is finalized, the final step is to estimate the demand
for the predefined years of the period. Usually, the estimates appear in the form of
equations, and the result is interpreted and presented in the easy and usable form.
Thus, the objective of demand forecasting can only be achieved only if these steps
are followed systematically.
4.2.1. Survey Methods: Under the survey method, the consumers are contacted directly
and are asked about their intentions for a product and their future purchase plans.
This method is often used when the forecasting of a demand is to be done for a short
period of time.
Consumer Survey Method includes the further three methods that can be used
to interview the consumer:
4.2.1.1.1. Complete Enumeration Method: Under this method, a
forecaster contact almost all the potential users of the product
and ask them about their future purchase plan. The probable
demand for a product can be obtained by adding all the
quantities indicated by the consumers. Such as the majority of
children in city report the quantity of chocolate (Q) they are
willing to purchase, then total probable demand (Dp) for
chocolate can be determined as:
Dp = Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4+……+Qn
Where, Q1, Q2, Q3 denote the demand indicated by children 1, 2,3
and so on.
4.2.1.1.2. One of the major limitations of this method is that it can
only be applied where the consumers are concentrated in
a certain region or locality. And if the population is widely
dispersed, then it can turn out to be very costly. Besides
this, the other limitation is that the consumers might not
know their actual demand in future. Due to this, they may
give a hypothetical answer that may be biased according
to their own expectations regarding the market
conditions.
The statistical methods are often used when the forecasting of demand is to be done
for a longer period. The statistical methods utilize the time-series (historical) and
cross-sectional data to estimate the long-term demand for a product. The statistical
methods are used more often and are considered superior than the other techniques
of demand forecasting due to the following reasons:
There is a minimum element of subjectivity in the statistical methods.
The estimation method is scientific and depends on the relationship between the
dependent and independent variables.
The estimates are more reliable
Also, the cost involved in the estimation of demand is the minimum.
Thus, these are the commonly used trend-projection methods that tell about
the trend of demand for a product and are based on a long and reliable time-
series data.
The following are the criteria on which the indicators are chosen:
5.1. Definition: Sales Forecasting is the projection of customer demand for the goods and
services over a period of time. In other words, it is the process that involves the
estimation of sales in a physical unit that a company expects within a plan period.
5.2. There are a variety of methods available to the firm for forecasting sales or demand of a
company; these are listed below:
5.2.6.1. All this information can be collected through a detailed marketing audit.
What is Marketing Audit? A marketing audit is the systematic and
comprehensive analysis and interpretation of the business marketing
environment (both internal and external), firm’s goals, objectives,
strategies and principles that help in identifying the area of problem and
recommending the solutions thereto.Through a marketing audit, the firm
can realize its relative brand image, market share and strengths and
weaknesses with respect to its competitors in the industry. Not only
through the marketing audit the firm can access to the competitor’s
plans, policies and activities through a market intelligence system.
5.2.6.2. What is Market intelligence system? It refers to the systematic collection
of the relevant marketing data from all the possible sources and then
converting it into the meaningful information. Through this, the complete
information about the competitors could be gained from the channel
partners, who are closely associated with the market and have all the
details about all the industry players.
Thus, the market share method includes the complete study of the
industry forecast and the market share of the company, that helps in
deducing the final company’s sales forecast. This conversion from
industry forecast to the company specific sales forecast is quite difficult
and hence requires the expertise. Once the market share is determined,
the data is consolidated to reach to the company’s forecast.
Simply, the method used to forecast the sales of a new product on the basis of the
sales forecast of the old existing product in the market is called as the substitution
method. This method is based on the premise that the new product often displaces
the old product, or old use patterns and hence the buying patterns of the old product
can be studied thoroughly to estimate the demand for its substitute product.
Under this method, first of all, the marketing team works on the sales forecast of the
existing products and then on the basis of that prepares the list of products and
markets that are open for the substitution by the new product. The estimated
demand for the existing product can help in determining the maximum limit for the
demand for the new product in the same category. However, it has been seen in
many cases that the new product might not displace the old product totally and in all
the categories of uses. This can be substantiated through an example given below:
Example: Nylon was very new to the Indian markets and the promoters of such
product knew that they will be able to displace the old use patterns of cotton, rayon,
jute and the like but were not certain about its precise quantity that will bring such a
change. By doing so, it was realized that however, the nylon was not able to take up
the 100% share in either of the segments, but was able to grab a reasonable market
share in the textile and tyre industries.
One of the prime advantages of the substitution method is the companies who are
planning to launch a new product can use this method to forecast the sales of a new
product on the basis of the sales of the existing product in the same category.
However, this method does have loopholes, firstly, it is not necessary that the
demand forecasted for a new product on the basis of an existing product stand true
in the real situations. Secondly, it has been seen that the new product does not
totally displace the old product and hence the planned market share could not be
achieved. Finally, the method requires a lot of study of the existing market and the
old product before a new product could be launched and hence requires a team of
experts for this.
The Test Marketing is one of the methods used under the Market Test. What is Test
Marketing? The Test Marketing is yet another method of sales forecasting, wherein
the new product is launched in the selected geographical areas, the representative of
the final market, to check the viability of the product and its demand among the
selected group of people.
The test marketing is the most reliable method of sales forecasting wherein the
product is launched in a few selected cities/town to check the response of customers
towards the product. On the basis of such response, the firm decides whether to
commercialize the product on a large scale or not. The test marketing must be
performed with utmost care; the marketers must select those areas for testing that
depicts the true image of the overall market.
The test marketing is the common method of sales forecasting and is often employed
by the firms due it several benefits. Firstly, it helps the firms to test and try the
product beforehand. Secondly, test marketing enables the firms to look at the pros
and cons of the product at the early stage and make decisions on whether to
continue with the product or drop the product idea very much before the
commercialization.
Though the test marketing proves to be a very helpful sales forecasting tool, it is not
free from the limitations. Firstly, it is a time-consuming process as it is required to be
carried out for a long period of time in order to obtain the reasonable results.
Secondly, due to such a long time gap, the competitors may manipulate the test
marketing process and make the results unreliable. Thirdly, there are chances of the
wrong selection of the geographical areas that might not represent the true picture
of the whole market.
This method proves to be fruitful for only those firms whose sales are
relatively stable or show an increasing trend.
5.2.9.2. Extrapolation Method: The extrapolation method is again a project/trend
method, but is quite complex than the simple projection method. Here,
the sales figures of past several years are plotted on graph paper and the
points are connected via a line which is further stretched to obtain the
future sales figures.It is assumed that the future sales will follow the
same pattern as followed by the past sales trend and observes the same
curve on a graph. This method can be applied effectively where the firms
have the steady past sales and expect no abrupt disruptions in the future.
5.2.9.5. Time Series Analysis: The time series analysis is yet another most
extensively used sales forecasting method wherein the sales of several
continuous years are chronologically ordered, and the pattern is studied
thereafter. The time series method helps in analyzing the following:
5.2.9.5.1. The Seasonal Variation, i.e. the change in the sales due to
the seasonal variations.
5.2.9.5.2. The Cyclical Patterns, i.e. the sales pattern that repeat
itself after every year.
5.2.9.5.3. Trends in Data
5.2.9.5.4. The Growth Rate, i.e. the rate at which the sales grow
with each year.
This method is based on the assumption that the factors affecting the
sales do not change much over a period of time and hence the future is
derived from the past.
Thus, a company can use either of these methods to forecast the demand for goods
and services and set the sales objectives accordingly.
The market survey method is typically employed in the situations where the primary
data or first-hand data is required to forecast the demand. Such situation exists when
the company wants to introduce a new product or a new variant into the market;
then it resorts to the primary data.
Similarly, the company entering into a new business relies on the market survey to
forecast its demand or sales. Since, there are no past records available with the firm,
so it has to collect information from the market or from the customers directly to
forecast the sales. Usually, the companies conduct the survey among the sample of
consumers to understand their purchasing capacity, attitudes and purchasing habits.
Sometimes, the channel partners are also surveyed to know their attitudes, likely
purchases, and the overall industry trend. Often the market survey is used as a
synonym of market research or market analysis, but this is not correct. In fact, the
market survey is one of the techniques being used in the market research.
The main advantage of the market survey method is that it helps in gathering the
original or primary data specific to the problem concerned. But however, a collection
of primary data could be time-consuming as well as expensive.
5.3. The future is uncertain, and the sales cannot be predicted with certainty, and hence the
management must study the following factors that influence the sales forecast:
5.4. The general economic conditions Viz inflation and a recession that has a considerable
impact on the sales. The manager must study thoroughly about the political, economic,
social, technological changes to forecast sales more accurately. Here, the past market
trends, consumer’s preferences, national income, disposable personal income, etc. must
be considered before projecting the sales for the successive period.
5.5. The demographics of consumers such as age, sex, education, occupation, income, etc.
must be given due consideration before projecting the demand for certain goods and
services. The social groups such as family or peers also influence the purchase behavior
of an individual. Thus, all these factors must be studied carefully before estimating the
sales for a given period.
5.6. There are several competitors in the market that deals in similar kinds of products and
services. Thus, the marketing team must study their pricing strategy, product design,
technological improvements, promotional schemes, advertising campaign, etc. very
carefully so as to meet the competition. Also, the firm must keep a close watch on
the new entrant, who can alter the market share of the existing firms significantly.
5.7. The changes within the firm can also affect the sales. Such as changes in the advertising
campaigns, promotional schemes and pricing policy can bring a significant change in the
sales figure. Thus, the management is required to study every change in relation to its
effect on the overall sales of the firm.
Thus, the sales forecasting is a backbone of marketing that provides not only the sales figure but also
helps the management to identify the customer’s needs, tastes, and preferences. It also helps in
exploring the market opportunities that could be matched with the company’s marketing efforts.
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) are the critical (key) indicators of progress toward an intended
result. KPIs provides a focus for strategic and operational improvement, create an analytical basis for
decision making and help focus attention on what matters most. As Peter Drucker famously said,
“What gets measured gets done.”
Managing with the use of KPIs includes setting targets (the desired level of performance) and
tracking progress against that target. Managing with KPIs often means working to improve leading
indicators that will later drive lagging benefits. Leading indicators are precursors of future success;
lagging indicators show how successful the organization was at achieving results in the past.
Good KPIs:
The relative business intelligence value of a set of measurements is greatly improved when the
organization understands how various metrics are used and how different types of measures
contribute to the picture of how the organization is doing. KPIs can be categorized into several
different types:
1. Inputs measure attributes (amount, type, quality) of resources consumed in processes that
produce outputs
2. Process or activity measures focus on how the efficiency, quality, or consistency of specific
processes used to produce a specific output; they can also measure controls on that process,
such as the tools/equipment used or process training
3. Outputs are result measures that indicate how much work is done and define what is
produced
4. Outcomes focus on accomplishments or impacts, and are classified as Intermediate
Outcomes, such as customer brand awareness (a direct result of, say, marketing or
communications outputs), or End Outcomes, such as customer retention or sales (that are
driven by the increased brand awareness)
5. Project measures answer questions about the status of deliverables and milestone progress
related to important projects or initiatives
Every organization needs both strategic and operational measures, and some typically already exist.
Figure 2 depicts strategic, operational and other measures as described below:
Product Decision:
The objective of the product decision is to develop and implement a product strategy that meets the
demands of the marketplace with a competitive advantage.
1. Introduction
2. Growth
3. Maturity
4. Decline
Negative cash flow Introduction Growth Maturity Decline Sales,cost,andcashflow Cost of development and
production Cash flow Net revenue (profit) Sales revenue Loss Figure 5.2
Product Development
The creation of products with new or different characteristics that offer new or additional benefits
to the customer.
Product development may involve modification of an existing product or its presentation, or
formulation of an entirely new product that satisfies a newly defined customer want or market
niche.
Capacity is the throughput or number of units a facility can hold, receive, store, or
produce in a period of time. Design capacity is the theoretical maximum output of a
system in a given period under ideal conditions. For many companies designing
capacity can be straightforward, effective capacity is the capacity a firm expects to
achieve given its current operating constraints. It is often lower than design capacity
because the facility may have been designed for an earlier version of the product or a
different product mix than is currently being produced.
Available time = the number of machines x the number of workers x the hours of
operations.
These measures are important for an operations manager, but they often need to know
the expected output of a facility or process. Also referred to as rated capacity:
Rated Capacity = (Available time) x (Utilization) x (Efficiency)
Capacity considerations for a good capacity are:
Even with good forecasting and facilities built in to the forecast, there may be a poor
match between the actual demand that occurs and available capacity. There are some
options for managing demand:
The business of supplying products to customers consists of a long chain of events. It starts with
sourcing of raw materials and ends with delivery of products to a retailer or customer. This chain of
events is called the supply chain.