months orders Naïve method e abs.

e (NM) 3MMA e (3MMA)

1 120
2 90 120 -30.00 30.00
3 100 90 10.00 10.00
4 75 100 103.3 -28.3
5 110 75 88.3 21.7
6 50 110 95.0 -45.0
7 75 50 78.3 -3.3
8 130 75 78.3 51.7
9 110 130 85.0 25.0
10 90 110 105.0 -15.0
11 90 110.0
SUM
MAD
 abs. e WMA
abs. e (3MMA) 5MMA e(5MMA) (5MMA) 0,5 0,33 0,17 e (WMA) abs. e (W

28.3 100.1 Err:507 25.1

21.7 85.8 Err:507 24.2
45.0 99.0 -49.0 49.0 96.75 Err:507 46.75
3.3 85.0 -10.0 10.0 74.05 Err:507 0.95
51.7 82.0 48.0 48.0 72.7 Err:507 57.3
25.0 88.0 22.0 22.0 98.25 Err:507 11.75
15.0 95.0 -5.0 5.0 110.65 Err:507 20.65
91.0 103.4
190.0 134.0 186.7
27.1 26.8 26.7
weights
0.5
0.33
0.17
months orders Naïve method e MAD 3MMA e2 MAD3 5MMA e4
1 120.00
2 90.00 120 -30.00 30
3 100.00 90 10.00 10
4 75.00 100 -25.00 25 103.3 -28.3 28.3
5 110.00 75 35.00 35 88.3 21.7 21.7
6 50.00 110 -60.00 60 95.0 -45.0 45.0 99.0 -49.0
7 75.00 50 25.00 25 78.3 -3.3 3.3 85.0 -10.0
8 130.00 75 55.00 55 78.3 51.7 51.7 82.0 48.0
9 110.00 130 -20.00 20 85.0 25.0 25.0 88.0 22.0
10 90.00 110 -20.00 20 105.0 -15.0 15.0 95.0 -5.0
11 90 110.0 91.0
SUM 280 190.0
MAD 31.1111 27.1
 WMA
MAD5 0,5 0,33 0,17 e6 MAD7

100.1 -25.10 25.1

85.8 24.20 24.2
49.0 96.75 -46.75 46.75
10.0 74.05 0.95 0.95
48.0 72.7 57.30 57.3
22.0 98.25 11.75 11.75
5.0 110.65 -20.65 20.65
103.4
134.0 186.7
26.8 26.67143
 Exponential smoothing
Ft e abs e e^2 e abs e
St 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.3
1 200.00
2 250.00 200 200 200
3 340.00 205.00
4 520.00 218.50
5 670.00
6 600.00
7 600.00
8 780.00
9 820.00
10 900.00
11 1000.00
12
sum e
ME
 e^2 e abs e e^2
0.3 0.7 Ft a*S(t-1)+ (1-a)*F(t-1)
F4 0.1*S3+ (1-0.1)*F3
F4 ###
 Exponential smoothing
Ft errors errors
year St 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.3
1 200.00 e abs e e^2 e
2 250.00 200 200 200 50.00 50 2500 50.00
3 340.00 205.0 215.0 235.0 135.00 135 18225 125.00
4 520.00 218.5 252.5 308.5 301.50 301.5 90902.25 267.50
5 670.00 248.7 332.8 456.6 421.35 421.35 177535.8225 337.25
6 600.00 290.8 433.9 606.0 309.22 309.215 95613.916225 166.08
7 600.00 321.7 483.7 601.8 278.29 278.2935 77447.272142 116.25
8 780.00 349.5 518.6 600.5 430.46 430.46415 185299.38444 261.38
9 820.00 392.6 597.0 726.2 427.42 427.417735 182685.92019 222.96
10 900.00 435.3 663.9 791.8 464.68 464.6759615 215923.7492 236.07
11 1000.00 481.8 734.7 867.6 518.21 518.20836535 268539.90992 265.25
12 533.6 814.3 960.3
sum 3336.12 3336.12 1314673.22 2047.74
aver 333.61 333.61 131467.32 204.77
g
errors errors
0.3 0.7
abs e e^2 e abs e e^2
50 2500 50.00 50 2500
125 15625 105.00 105 11025
267.5 71556.25 211.50 211.5 44732.25
337.25 113737.5625 213.45 213.45 45560.9025
166.075 27580.905625 -5.97 5.965 35.581225
116.2525 13514.643756 -1.79 1.7895 3.20231025
261.3768 68317.805441 179.46 179.4632 32207.022208
222.9637 49712.822666 93.84 93.83895 8805.7475987
236.0746 55731.220306 108.15 108.1517 11696.786644
265.2522 70358.743 132.45 132.4455 17541.811808

2047.74 488634.95 1086.09 1101.60 174108.30

204.77 48863.50 108.61 110.16 17410.83
 X Y

stations cars per hour sales per hour

1 150.00 220.00
2 55.00 75.00
3 220.00 250.00
4 130.00 145.00
5 95.00 200.00
6 183.00 227.29

y=0.93*x+57.104

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.833037288925619
R Square 0.693951124740546
Adjusted R Square 0.591934832987395
Standard Error 44.1765963066168
Observations 5

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 13275.2850162866 13275.29 6.8023559062
Residual 3 5854.71498371336 1951.572
Total 4 19130

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept (a) 57.1042345276873 50.387996912893 1.13329 0.3394713189
cars per hour (b) 0.929967426710098 0.356564466784263 2.608133 0.0798134238
<0.05

y=0.93*x+57.104 x 183
 300.00

250.00 f(x) = 0.929967426710097 x + 57.1042345276873

R² = 0.693951124740546

200.00

150.00

100.00

50.00

0.00
40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 180.00 200.00 220.00 240.00

Significance F
0.079813423807102 <0.05 95%

Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
-103.252860078396 217.4613 -103.2529 217.4613
-0.204779843202935 2.064715 -0.20478 2.064715
 X Y

Month Radio ads Revenue Chart Ti

Jan 21 8350
30000
Feb 180 22755
Mar 50 13455 25000
Apr 195 21100
f(x) = 78.0753012596384 x + 7930.3546
May 96 15000 20000 R² = 0.932729425680283
Jun 44 12500
Jul 171 20700 15000

Aug 135 19722

10000
Sep 120 16115
Oct 75 13100 5000
Nov 106 15670
Dec 198 25300 0
0 50 100
Jan 100.0 15737.9
Feb 150.0 19641.65
Mar 200.0 23545.4 y= 78.075*x+7930.4

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9657791806
R Square 0.93272942568
Adjusted R Square 0.926002368248
Standard Error 1345.996703212
Observations 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 251199363.66608 2.51E+08 138.653406056 3.4895549922E-07
Residual 10 18117071.250583 1811707
Total 11 269316434.91667

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept (a) 7930.35466232 861.22294572137 9.208248 3.3672092E-06 6011.43035673641
Radio ads (b) 78.07530125964 6.6305323357619 11.77512 3.489555E-07 63.3015545529761
<0.05

y=7930.4+78.07*x
 Chart Title

78.0753012596384 x + 7930.35466232025
0.932729425680283

50 100 1 50 2 00 250

<0.05

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
9849.279 6011.43 9849.279
92.84905 63.30155 92.84905
 X Y
Month Radio ads Revenue xi*yi xi^2 (sum xi)^2
Jan 21 8350 175350 441
Feb 180 22755 4095900 32400
Mar 50 13455 672750 2500
Apr 195 21100 4114500 38025
May 96 15000 1440000 9216 linear regresssion model
Jun 44 12500 550000 1936 y=a+b*x
Jul 171 20700 3539700 29241 y=7930 +78*X
Aug 135 19722 2662470 18225 if x (jan. next year)=100
Sep 120 16115 1933800 14400 y(jan. next year)=
Oct 75 13100 982500 5625
Nov 106 15670 1661020 11236
Dec 198 25300 5009400 39204
Sum 1391 203767 26837390 202449 1934881

Formulas regression coefficients

 Regression coefficients
a = 7930.355 coefficients of correlation and determination
b = 78.0753
r= 0.965779 stong and possitive relationship (strenght of the relationship b
r2= 0.932729 strong (accuracy of the regression model)

15730 FORECAST
p (strenght of the relationship between the variables)
ession model)