Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Written by:
Rebecca Dias
Strategist and Founder
becky@vesselh ead.com
Craig Wilson
Digital Media Analyst
craig@vesselhead.com
www.vesselhead.com
@Vesselhead
The close of the last decade brought us closer to mobile nirvana: freedom to
communicate, share, and contain all of your information into smaller and smarter
connected devices. We will look back and admire the advances of smartphones
and tablets, which freed up when and where we engage with family, friends and
co-workers. The advances of the past few years have created new, instantaneous
ways to socialize, collaborate, purchase goods, stream media and share knowledge
on the go. These improvements have written a new page in history and set up the
anticipation of a new decade of mobile technology disruptions to improve our lives.
The consumers are the winners, integrating home and work, friends and associ-
ates, and household chores and entertainment all in a single mobile computing
experience. However, not everyone has benefited from these disruptions.
Corporations and governments who missed these sweeping changes now struggle
to compete for the digitally advanced consumers in the new economy.
In this Brief
Section I: Introduction........................................................................................................ 2
Disruptions for the Connected Era................................................................................ 2
Section II: Assessing Mobile Trends............................................................................... 4
The Free Cloud, Ubiquitous Access and Flash are Enablers
of Increased Mobility.......................................................................................................... 4
Mobile Commerce and the Smartphone Continue to
Cannibalize the Wallet ...................................................................................................... 6
Multi-Touch and Gesture Computing Evolve Application Architectures................8
Section III: Competitive Landscape...........................................................................10
Android OS Competes on Carrier Strength, iOS Competes
on Vertical Integration......................................................................................................10
Conclusion: Mobile Computing Outlook.....................................................................14
Appendix A: About Vesselhead......................................................................................15
Our Charter.......................................................................................................................15
Contact Information.........................................................................................................16
Biographies.........................................................................................................................16
Remember where the desktop PC sat, undisturbed, under the desk? If moved, it was
treated like a delicate bouquet of flowers to protect the data. In comes the wireless
laptop with its compact size, network auto-sensing, sizable hard drive, and perfor-
mance like its desktop counterpart. While it freed us from our desks, it still resulted
in users losing files with rugged usage. A savvy user carried an external hard drive to
backup files for fear of damaging the hard disk and data while in tow. Ask a runner
who owned one of the first iPods how it faired in an armband on a long run. The
hard disks weren’t so pleased and ultimately, neither were the runners.
Storage that is not SSD or Flash based Today, walk into any Apple store and you’ll see a child gyrate
a 1.5 pound iPad tablet back and forth as she plays games.
will be seen as legacy moving into and Your first reaction might be to cringe for the delicate hard
beyond 2011. disk. But those worries are archaic now; these devices come
with non-volatile storage drives. The growth in cloud storage
and Flash are replacing the spinning hard drive. It’s no accident that Apple’s mobile
devices (iPad, iPod) use Flash and their latest MacBook Air laptop has a Flash-based
State Storage Device (SSD). Flash memory provides the handheld a non-volatile,
highly portable, high capacity, energy efficient, and fast storage medium. The data on
the device is not likely to become corrupted. Also, with the marriage of free cloud-
based storage and applications, users can store personal data in the Cloud and
quickly sync it with any device. Users can sync files with Dropbox, share photos
on Flickr, collaborate on content with Google Docs or Microsoft SkyDrive, and
show presentations on SlideShare. These are only a few of the services that make
mobility easier while taking advantage of off-device personal storage. As more apps
are downloaded, expect larger gigabyte storage on these devices and increased
demand on the Cloud for applications and file synchronization.
Flash is a highly desirable, disruptive technology for more than just mobile devices.
SSD’s can have 100x faster seek times, consume less energy, and use less space
than their disk-based predecessors. SSD’s have the capacity to enable new types
of server architecture and therefore Cloud solutions. Performance of the
processor has long outperformed that of the hard disk. SSD’s promise to bridge
the gap. The behemoth data centers around the world that serve as the Cloud
should already be considering using SSD in place of traditional hard drives to
save on energy costs, increase backup times, reduce space, and more. However,
according to Seagate,3 SSD growth in 2011 may be stunted by the limited manu-
facturing plants in the world. The demand cannot be met by supply and will result
Mobile devices (Smartphones, Tablets, in cost barriers in the short term. Despite this fabrication limitation, storage that
iPods) will replace the lugging of a is not SSD or Flash based will be seen as legacy moving into and beyond 2011.
laptop and become the all-in-one
Along with the demand for storage comes the demand for faster and more
computing device for most tasks.
universal connectivity. Smartphones and tablets rely on a wireless GPRS or 3G. As
4G networks expand and become faster in more urban cities, and more reliable
data cell service increases, the demand to access and sync files, watch streaming
video, and make online remittances will increase. The speed of mobile networks
provides greater freedom to download content, breaking the dependence on
transfer time with available flash memory.
Mobile devices (Smartphones, Tablets, iPods) will replace the lugging of a laptop
and become the all-in-one computing device for most tasks. Then again, users who
started with the PC have Pavlovian habits associated with using the keyboard and
a mouse, and will return to those when it comes to being comfortable or produc-
tive. Even in cases where a tactile keyboard is desired, some will opt for an
accessory like a Zagg case that snaps to their tablet or a Bluetooth device to
provide them a keyboard. Today, tablets are seen as incremental devices providing
us new ways to access media and consume information. As these devices obtain
more applications and Cloud services evolve to provide equivalent or superior
software, the need for a laptop especially for small business owners and enterprise
users will abate. The integration of the Cloud, mobile device applications, high-
speed internet access, and device storage disrupt the mobility landscape
to hyper-adoption.
3. NAND Flash: Can It Meet the Growing Storage Capacity Demands of the Laptop PC Market?
Seagate Point of View 2011
Everyone talks about mobile devices cannibalizing the laptop in much the same
way the laptop cannibalized the desktop. What about the wallet? Open up the
contents of a wallet and find the following:
--Identification
--Cash
--Credit Cards
--Club Membership
--Frequent flyer/buyer cards
Today we can use our plastic and the --Checks to deposit
Square at the neighborhood gourmet --Coupons
taco truck: tomorrow there won’t be
Each of these products and services are in the process of being replaced and going
any plastic at all.
digital. One startup that has been growing like wildfire is Square. The company
makes a small device that plugs into the headphone jack of mobile devices (currently
iPhone, iPad, Android) that allows the user to process credit card payments. The
device was originally designed to easily exchange money with friends—“I don’t have
any cash, can you spot me? I’ll swipe my credit card on your square in exchange.”
But the use has gone far beyond that as small business owners, entrepreneurs, and
even nonprofits utilize the technology. Walk into a craft fair, farmers market, or
fundraising auction and you’ll find those using the iPad or iPhone with the Square
are profiting from the added consumer convenience.
Today we can use our plastic and the Square at the neighborhood gourmet taco
truck: tomorrow there won’t be any plastic at all. Like consumers, small busi-
ness owners have one device that tracks their e-commerce during the day and
becomes their media center at night. Verifone, the established vendor in the credit
card processing world, has already responded to this disruptive startup with
the release of PAYware Mobile early last year. But Verifone’s biggest competi-
tors may just be the new Peer to Peer money exchange system offered through
NokiaMoney, PayPal’s Send Money and MasterCard’s MoneySend solutions, which
provide a way to exchange funds for a limited fee without a credit card. This is the
first generation of the non-plastic credit world. Expect some fierce competition
and consolidation in this space in 2011. Recently Visa jumped on the bandwagon
with its intent to buy PlaySpan for $190 million. This consolidation will extend
beyond the US to companies that are already established in other countries,
notably Qiwi in Russia.
The big question is, when will the mobile device become the credit card? We can
already buy applications from the iStore with our device. We have our phone number,
unique phone ID, and our password to uniquely identify us. All of these could add
up to being more secure than the traditional credit card imprint. Starbucks recently
released their iPhone payment engine to 6,000 stores where they can now scan
a barcode on a customer’s smartphone as payment.You don’t need your wallet
anymore to for your morning wake-up or to collect points towards free lattes.
Also in late 2010, US smartphone users began using their cell phone for check
deposits. PayPal, Bank of America, and Chase are early adopters of the MMS
check depositing technology. This will spread quickly and become status quo for
many banking institutions. In 2011, consumers will begin to look to their banks to
provide them with electronic check depositing and credit card processing services.
Obviously, security and consumer protection against hackers will have to be a
priority for companies facilitating these transactions.
One last item that bears mentioning is coupons. Who uses coupons anymore?
Well, coupons aren’t just for Grandma and penny-pinchers anymore. Groupon and
LivingSocial revolutionized them and made them popular with hipsters everywhere
via high quality, preference-based, electronic coupons on smartphones. Other
startups are jumping onto the bandwagon including Yelp, Tippr, Dibspace, Zozi, and
Freshsheet. Expect some market consolidation in this space over the course of 2011
as consumers’ email in-boxes get overwhelmed with these offers.
Throughout its history, Apple has set precedence for rethinking how users engage
with applications, resulting in new form factors and development architectures. The
1984 Super Bowl ad to launch the Mac screamed ‘break the mold.’ Steve Jobs didn’t
want applications ported to the Mac when he introduced it; he wanted developers to
rethink software design and consumers to demand something better than what they
had been using. Jobs introduced beautiful typography and brought the true meaning of
usability to the personal computer with the introduction of the mouse and a desktop
windowing system. Continuing this drive to introduce innovative new form factors,
in 1993 Apple introduce pen-based computing on a PDA with the Newton. While
widely considered a flop, the Newton set precedence for PDAs and some see it as
the grandfather of both the iPhone and the iPad. Also ahead of its time, in 1998 Jobs
removed the floppy drive from the Mac and declared the Web would store content.
In 2001, when Jobs revealed the iPod to Wall Street, they balked, not understanding
that Apple was changing the business model for music acquisition. After every mobile
phone added an MP3 player, Wall Street predicted iPod sales would decrease because
they didn’t understand the content distribution power of iTunes, or the computing
power of the iPod. In 2007, Apple put a stake in the heart of Adobe’s Flash technology
by refusing to support it because of security and performance limitations. Prior to
this, Adobe’s Flash player had been seen as the industry standard for video-streaming.
Instead of harming Apple’s product sales, numerous companies redesigned their
websites, either removing flash or creating an iPhone compatible site. Additionally, it
accelerated the industry standardization and adoption of HTML5, which has been a
critical step in large-scale mobile video streaming.
On Jan 9, 2007, Steve Jobs announced the Users could pinch and spread their finger and thumb
to shrink and enlarge the content displayed on the
single most disruptive change in technology smaller screen. Apple had finally created a truly
usable touch screen. Every application that existed
since the introduction of desktop windowing has fundamentally been rethought as a result of this
systems: he introduced the iPhone with multi- change in the application platform. There is no tactile
keyboard, no mouse— every software application has
touch computing. been redesigned to think about swipes, touches and
the Cloud. Anywhere access and location-based services have also helped to create a
whole new landscape of possibilities. Companies are compelled to build applications
that simplify the user’s navigation and access to functionality and information. These
applications empower users with touch computing devices. This paradigm shift will
go well beyond the mobile devices. The introduction of this technology has created a
new marketplace, the Mobile Application Store, which Gartner predicts will surpass
$15 Billion in 2011.4
4 Gartner Says Worldwide Mobile Application Store Revenue Forecast to Surpass $15 Billion in 2011
Press Release on Gartner.com 1/26/2011
In 2011, multi-touch computing will evolve. Today we use two fingers to manipu-
late images, to rotate maps, and to change the angle on 3D images. Laptops already
use up to four touch points on the control pad to determine what happens on the
screen in terms of scrolling, accessing the desktop or viewing the dashboard. The
next generation of tablets will use from five to ten points, enabling people to use all
of their fingers to interact with applications. Recently the iOS 4.3 beta was released
with 5 point computing for the iPad. Expanding Multi-touch will revolutionize how
we learn and create. There are already numerous applications to support the medical
industry on the iOS devices including 3D brain, CranialNerves, Brain Tutor and more.
Imagine how these applications will evolve when more interaction with the hands is
possible. More importantly, companies that release applications for smartphones, and
iPads will need to rethink design. The recent launch of the hyped Daily App on the
iPad is a guide to companies on what not to do. Users who participated in the Daily
launch were widely disappointed with the lack of utilization of the iPad’s key features.
Applications shouldn’t be modeled after websites, they need to be interactive and
leverage the power of multi-touch in ways that make users blissful.
The highlight of Christmas 2010, for kids and adults, was getting the new XBox
360 under the tree. Microsoft introduced the first gesture-based interface game
controller free platform with Kinect on the XBox 360, a powerful response to
Nintendo’s Wii’s motion remote controller. Microsoft has stated the company will
bring the Kinect technology—acquired through a startup, PrimeSense—to Windows
Desktop. While Microsoft has the core foundation of this technology, HP recently
announced 3D Camera support in the TouchPad tablet with webOS. This sets up the
anticipation that Apple will likely try to popularize gesture technology on mobile
devices, redefining application architectures yet again. The new paradigm evolves
camera-sensing technology to achieve multi-sense gesture computing. The computing
device reads users sign language and interprets an action or
Expect to see the off-shoots of gesture task to perform.
computing on tablets and new home Apple will not use the camera sensing technologies with the
same depth as Kinect. Kinect’s camera provides at range 3D
entertainment appliances. motion capture (depth sensoring) with facial and voice
recognition. We expect the first iteration of this technology
on devices to be more like signing. Apple will introduce the functionality slowly to
both educate the user and developer base. By limiting what the camera is tracking,
the developer interface will be greatly simplified. Home chefs everywhere will love
this technology: no more clean hands required to scroll your recipe! Further specula-
tion says why not add it to gaming on Apple TV and Google TV. Kids and adults would
enjoy evenings playing Angry Birds on the big screen. Apple may have propelled us into
a new era of personal mobile devices with the iPhone and iPad; however, ownership
of gesture computing is still up for grabs.
The wine connoisseur would say that Apple has superior mouthfeel, that balance
of look, feel, and intuitive functionality. The entire experience from the packaging,
to the simplicity of personalizing and updating the device, to the addition of
applications, is sheer perfection. Apple set the bar high for what a smartphone
and a tablet should look like. Google’s Android (Droid) phones vary based on the
handset manufacturer in terms of quality and features. However, Google has duped
enough of the iOS features and added enough bells and whistles to fall in the
competitive category. This combined with the number of devices on the market
and the growing developer population shows the signs of a dominant platform.
We often hear the term Apple versus Google. In 2011, we expect it to be Apple
and Google. Figure 1 shows data comparing the peak buying season for smart-
phones, Q4, in 2009 and 2010. While this is only data for the smartphone market,
we feel it is a good way to think about future potential in the Tablet space. The
Tablet OS generally builds on the Smartphone OS. One can speculate future Tablet
market share based on market share in the smartphone world. Users will likely
purchase a Tablet with the same Operating System as their smartphone or iPod
for ease of use and familiarity.
% Marketshare of 29.8 Million Smartphones Sold in Q4 2009 % Marketshare of 70.2 Million Smartphones Sold in Q4 2010
Others 3%
Microsoft 3%
RIM 20% Others 4% Symbian 31%
Microsoft 7% RIM 14%
5. Data source: Google’s Android becomes the world’s leading smart phone platform—Canalys reveals smart phone market
exceeded 100 million units in Q4 2010, a Canalys Press Release 1/31/2011
The smartphone market has had tremendous growth year over year. Sales in Q4
grew by 135% from the previous year. The global market opportunity is still up
for grabs because the majority of consumers still own feature phones due to
the expense of data plans. All-you-can-eat data plan competition will help smart-
phone sales double in Q4 of 2011. This leaves a large opportunity for growth for
all players. Up until now, market share ownership in this space has been volatile
because it is still an emerging market. One might question if dominance of market
share will ever be stable year over year since consumers replace their cell phones
every 3–24 months. Symbian led the market in 2009 though they were not seen
as the technology leader. Last year Symbian shrunk by 13 basis points while
The iPod is often used as a Google grew by more than 24 points, a significant swing in market ownership.
compliment to a feature phone for Symbian’s loss in market share can be directly tied to lack of innovation on the
platform. Google Android sold 28.6 million units Q4 ’10, which is almost equal
those who can’t afford or do not
to the total number of smartphones sold in Q4 2009. What is interesting is that
wish to have a data plan.
Google cannibalized RIM, Symbian, and Microsoft market share, but not Apple.
Apple continued to grow at the same rate as the prior year. Despite the release
of a solidly reviewed Windows Phone 7, Microsoft’s share continued to shrink
and the Palm Pre didn’t leave a blip on the radar.
Another key factor not represented in the numbers above, but which plays heavily
in the Mobile devices landscape is the iPod. The iPod is often used as a compli-
ment to a feature phone for those who can’t afford or do not wish to have a data
plan. These users run their applications on the iPod and connect to Wi-Fi when
available. Some go so far as to use the iPod as their only phone using Google Voice
or Skype as their phone number. Apple sold 19.4 million iPods last Q4. Today, the
iPod is the only game in town for this market. The iPod has huge growth potential
in developing countries.
What should we expect in 2011? HP has already announced its TouchPad tablet,
which builds on the Palm webOS and a new release of the Palm Pre. New players
will also surface. There are rumors that Amazon is building a Droid application
store and could launch their own smartphone device. We believe that innovation
will drive adoption of Smartphones in 2011. Who drives innovation? Developers!
Figure 2 shows the number of developers per platform. This view of the current
market landscape helps to tell the future story.
Apple currently holds the developer audience. However, with the number of Droid
phones on the market, and more importantly, the promise to be a more open
development platform, we expect that the number of Droid developers will rise.
There is an ongoing debate as to how truly open the Android platform is. While
it is licensed under Apache, the development process is not transparent.6 Other
platforms without the developer base and new entrants into the market like
webOS will struggle to gain ground. webOS may find some developer allure since
it is first to market with a 3D camera on at tablet.
In 2011, Apple will continue its growth Google’s Android will continue to dominate the
majority smartphone market. Apple will become the
of iPhone sales with new carriers such as premium high end, more polished and less flexible
option. But with flexibility comes complexity. The
Verizon and expansion into growth markets Droid is still going to be challenged by the triumvi-
like China. rate. Who owns updates to your Droid: the carrier,
the device manufacturer, or Google? Additionally,
these devices are at risk of value subtractions where the device manufacturer or
carrier installs additional applications that actually make the device less useable or
create clutter. Sadly, these questions will plague the Droids through 2011. Nokia,
who has been the dominant handset manufacturer for years and traditionally built
on Symbian just announced that it will be abandoning its platform and partnering
with Microsoft for Windows Phone 7. This new partnership should help bump the
Microsoft share up; however, in the end, if Microsoft fails to lure developers to the
Windows Phone 7 platform by next Q4, it will continue to be a small piece of the
pie competing with RIM in the Enterprise marketplace.
In the long term, brand affinity, ease of use, user familiarity and look and feel will
play on consumer appetite. Currently the only vendors with loyal, repeat buyers
have been Apple and RIM. Unlike the PC, user dependence on applications is not
tied to a device. Today, applications settings are easily transported from phone to
phone. The user settings are stored in the Cloud. Often times it is not a matter of if
an application is available on a given platform, it is a question of when the applica-
tion will be available on a given platform. As users install more applications on a
device, the more likely they will want to stay on that platform when they purchase
a new phone. They will expect a seamless upgrade experience by the platform
provider akin to an iOS iTunes upgrade experience.
The power behind these devices and the plethora of applications make them suffi-
cient for everyday computing needs. Consumers will begin to use these devise as
their primary and potentially only computing device. The number of mobile devices,
smartphones, and tablets, will grow exponentially. In concert with this growth, there
will be a decline in replacement PC sales. Rupert Murdoch was right on the money
when he said of Steve Jobs, “Here we have the man who invented the personal
computer, then the laptop. He’s now destroying them. That is an amazing life.” 7
The next time you update your Facebook status or Tweet, review a business
report, read a magazine or make dinner reservations on a smartphone or tablet,
remember how it used to be. Would you go back? Now, remember when you
decided to take the plunge and purchase the smart mobile device. The journey
from fascination to envy to necessity is led by the freedom that comes from
mobile computing
Remember the desktop PC, now think about docking your laptop. In the future,
you will either dock your tablet or your cell phone. Your Personal Mobile Device
(PMD) will be your primary computing device for work and for personal pleasure.
It is a gold rush all over again. Those companies that bring the most robust and
desired software will rule the new application marketplace that marries smart-
phones and tablets to the Cloud.
The Vesselhead disruptions for mobile computing provide the tipping points of
free Cloud and flash storage, digital wallet transactions, gesture computing, and the
herding of developers to the water hole that provides the most opportunity to
cash in on mobile apps. Wait not, and be part of the disruption revolution.
Our Charter
In today’s market, corporations can’t assume ideas are unique, customer loyalty
will last, or by merely having technology you will have long standing competitive
differentiators.
To be successful, companies need out of the box thinking about product design,
agile development, and marketing execution.
Vesselhead identifies market disruptions and helps companies become the next
generation of industry leaders through our market intelligence and product
marketing skills.
Contact Vesselhead to help your strategy successfully reach beyond the fall line.
© Copyright 2011 Vesselhead LLC. All rights reserved. This document is the confidential and proprietary information of
Vesselhead. The opinions of Vesselhead hold no guarantee and express only the views and observations of changes in
technology and their potential usage.
Design by Danielle Vernelson with Incite Media: www.incite-m.com/marketing