Texas  Redistricting  2011

P R E P A R E D   F O R   T H E   T E X A S   L E G I S L A T I V E B L A C K   C A U C U S  
P A N E L   O N   R E D I S T R I C T I N G : E N S U R I N G F A I R N E S S   A N D  
O P P O R T U N I T Y   ( R E V I S E D )
A U S T I N ,   T E X A S  
F E B R U A R Y   2 8 , 2 0 1 1

D R .   M I C H A E L   O .   A D A M S
P R O F E S S O R   A N D   D I R E C T O R   O F   M P A / E -­ M P A P R O G R A M
T E X A S   S O U T H E R N   U N I V E R S I T Y

D R .   K A R E N   C A L L A G H A N
A S S O C I A T E   P R O F E S S O R   O F   P O L I T I C A L   S C I E N C E
T E X A S   S O U T H E R N   U N I V E R S I T Y
 Overview  

y 2010  Population  Changes

y Redistricting  Criteria
y Analysis  of  Voting  Patterns
y Mathematical  Models
y Recommendations    

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 2010  Census  

y Once  it  is  clear  that  everyone was  counted  in  the  
2010  Census  .  .  .

y If  districts  are  unbalanced  in  population,  states  

and  localities  must  reconfigure  existing  district  
lines    

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 2000-­2010  State  Population  Changes

Source:    2010  Census  PL94-­ 171;;  Plans  100

 Reapportionment                              Redistricting  

y Determines  the  number   y The  boundaries  of  

of  electoral  seats   elective  districts  are  
apportioned  to  Texas   redrawn  to  maintain  
equal  population  

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Racial  and  Ethnic  Population  Changes    

y As  an  overall  percentage:

-­ African  American  population  remains  constant  
-­ Anglo  population  declines
-­ Hispanic  and  Asian  populations  increase  

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Redistricting  Criteria  

y Relatively  equal  population  districts

y Preserve  county  lines  and  other  political  divisions
y Compactness  and  contiguity  
y Legislators  remain  in  their  district  
y Preserve  geographic  boundary  lines
y Maintain  communities  of  interest  
y No  retrogression

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Equal  Population  and  the  10%  Rule  

Source:    2010  Census  PL94-­ 171;;  Plans  100    

 Preserve  Boundary  Lines  

Maps  made  with  GIS  mapping  software  and  Census  TIGER/Line Shp.  files,  by  Callaghan  and  Adams,  Texas  Southern  University
 Preserve  Boundary  Lines    

Maps  made  with  GIS  mapping  software  and  Census  TIGER/Line Shp.files,  by  Callaghan  and  Adams,Texas Southern  University  
 Compactness  and  Contiguity    

y Compactness  
A  measure  of  how  tightly  packed  a  district  is

y Contiguity
A  district  is  contiguous  if  one  can  reach  any  other  
part  without  crossing  a  district  boundary

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Contiguous   Not  Compact    
Perfectly  Compact Not  Contiguous  

Map  made  with  GIS  mapping  software  and  Census  TIGER/Line Shp.files,  by    Callaghan  and  Adams,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Communities  of  Interest  

Defined  by  many  characteristics,  the  most  common

being:
Race  
Economic  Status  
Neighborhood  

5HIHUVWR³DFWXDOVKDUHGLQWHUHVWV´
Relevant  interests  must  be  tangible and  must  extend  
beyond  race  itself  (e.g.,  political  views)

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams  ,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 No  Retrogression  

y Does  the  plan  cause  a  reduction  of  a  minority              

JURXS¶VYRWLQJVWUHQJWK"
y Are  minority  concentrations  fragmented  among  
different  districts?  
y Are  minorities  over  concentrated  in  one  or  more  
districts?
y Does  the  plan  depart  from  existing  criteria?    

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Retrogression  

y Potential  for  retrogression  exists  in  some  districts  

due  to  diverse  populations

y Difficult  to  draw  racially  compact  districts

y African-­Americans  elected  to  districts  where  African-­

American  populations  are  typically  less  than  50%  of  
the  total  district  population    

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Packing  

Putting  as  many  people  with  the  same  characteristic  into  as  
few  districts  as  possible.    

*adapted  from  $&LWL]HQ¶V*XLGHWR Redistricting  2010,  Justin  Levitt,    Brennan  Center  for  Justice
 Cracking

Splitting  groups  of  people  with  the  same    

characteristics  into  more  than  one  district.  

*adapted  from  $&LWL]HQ¶V*XLGHWR Redistricting  2010,  Justin  Levitt,  Brennan  Center  for  Justice
 City  A

Democrats    
Republicans  

*adapted  from  $&LWL]HQ¶V*XLGHWR Redistricting  2010,  Justin  Levitt,  Brennan  Center  for  Justice
 Gerrymandering  -­ Republicans  

Republican Majority Districts 3

Democrat Majority Districts 1

*adapted  from  $&LWL]HQ¶V*XLGHWR Redistricting  2010,  Justin  Levitt,  Brennan  Center  for  Justice
 Gerrymandering  ± Democrats  

Democrat Majority Districts 3

Republican Majority Districts 1

*adapted  from  $&LWL]HQ¶V*XLGHWR Redistricting  2010,  Justin  Levitt,  Brennan  Center  for  Justice
 The  1st Congressional  District  as  Passed  by  the  
Illinois  Legislature      

Lake
Michigan

Barack ‹Š–ŠȂœ House

1

1
1

Maps  made  with  GIS  mapping  software  and  Census  TIGER/Line Shp.files by  Callaghan  and  Adams,  Texas  Southern  University
 Analysis  of  Voting  Patterns  

y Provides  minority  voters  the  tools  they  need  to  

extract  from  voting  officials  in  the  government  a  
meaningful  and  equitable  result

y Election  history  and  voting  patterns  within  a  

jurisdiction  to  assess  racially  polarized  voting    

y Analysis  of  voter  registration  and  turnout  

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Assessment  of  Racially  Polarized  Voting

#  1  Bivariate  Correlations:    %  African  American  VAP  

and  support  of  African  American  candidate

In  each  electoral  contest,  compare  the  proportion  of  

VAP  population  that  is  African  American  and  not  
African  American  with  the  proportion  of  voters  
supporting  the  African  American  candidate

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
#  2  Racially  Homogenous  Precinct  Analysis  

Compare  vote  preferences  in  the  most  heavily  

populated  African  American  areas  (at  or  above  90%)
with  the  most  heavily  populated  non-­African  American
areas  (at  or  above  90%).  

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
#3  Bivariate  Ecological  Regression  Analysis  

Uses  all  information,  not  just  homogenous  precincts  

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams  ,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Scatterplot Example  

100%
%  Vote  for  African-­American  Candidates  

75%

y  =  0.9671x  +  0.0335

50%

25%

0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
%  African-­American  VAP    in  Precinct

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
#4  Ecological  Inference  Models  

y A  more  advanced  technique  now  in  vogue  

y Resolves  weaknesses  of  prior  approaches
y Is  used  in  most  voting  rights  litigation  

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Other  Considerations  

‡ Population  Demographics:  (race,  income,  education,  

employment,  housing  patterns-­home  ownership/  
rentals)

‡ Population  Projections:  What  will  district  

demographics  look  like  in  2020?  

‡ Projected  Voting  Patterns  

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Census  Undercounts

y Inequities  in  political  representation and  revenue  

sharing
y Not  all  racial  groups  undercounted  at  the  same  rate
y African  Americans  have  a  larger  undercount  than  
Anglo  Americans  (as  in  all  prior  censuses)  
y African  American  communities  disadvantaged  in  all  
government  programs  where  population  is  used  for  
fund  allocation  

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Recommendations  

‡ Districting  principles  that  advance  a  particular  plan  

must  be  those  that  actually  guided  the  construction  
of  the  plan  (not  an  afterthought)
‡ Districting  principles  must  be  applied  consistently  
across  districts
‡ Assemble  a  team  (attorneys,  statisticians,  mapping  
specialists)
y For  additional  guidance,  talk  to  the  Justice  
Department.  
Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams  ,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Bio:  Dr.  Michael  O.  Adams

-­ Professor  of  Political  Science,  Texas  Southern  University,  Director  of  MPA  and  
eMPA  Programs
-­ Author  of  six  books  covering  the  fields  of  American  Government,  Public  
Administration  and  Public  Policy;;  and  more  than  twenty  five  peer  reviewed  
articles  in  scholarly  journals
-­ Published  articles  on  racial  minority  vote  dilution  in  at-­large  city  council  
districting  plans
-­ 2009  Barbara  Jordan-­Mickey  Leland  International  Service  Award
-­ 2009  Korean  Fellowship  Award,  Seoul  Korea
-­ 7H[DV6RXWKHUQ8QLYHUVLW\¶V5HVHDUFK6FKRODU$ZDUG
2008  Quiester  Craig  Teaching  Award
-­ 2008  Defense  of  Democracy  Fellowship,  Tel  Aviv  University,  Israel  
-­ )DFXOW\'HYHORSPHQW$ZDUG&KLQD¶V)RUHLJQ6HUYLFH8QLYHUVLW\%HLMLQJ
China
-­ Ph.D  in  Political  Science,  The  Atlanta  University.    Fields:    Urban  Politics  and  
Minority  Political  Participation  and  Public  Administration
Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams  ,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Bio:  Dr.  Karen  Callaghan

‡ Associate  Professor,  Political  Science,  Former  Director,  Barbara  Jordan-­Mickey  

Leland  School  of  Public  Affairs  Survey  Center,  Texas  Southern  University
‡ Visiting  Professor,  Vanderbilt  University,  Postdoctoral  Fellow,  Rice  University
‡ Published  author  in  several  prestigious  journals  and  presses
‡ Probability  models  of  minority  vote  dilution  in  Boston  
‡ Former  Director,  Quantitative  Methods,  Public  Policy  Ph.D.  Program,  
University  of  Massachusetts,  Boston
‡ Goldsmith  Research  Award,  Harvard  University
‡ National  Science  Foundation  Doctoral  Dissertation  Award
‡ Barbara  Jordan-­Mickey  Leland  Scholar  Award
‡ Recently  served  as  Sr.  Research  Scientist,  United  States  Defense  Department  
contractor  in  Afghanistan.  Survey  research  and  GIS  mapping
‡ Ph.D.  in  Political  Science  New  York  University  at  Stony  Brook.  Fields:  
Statistical  Methodology  and  Political  Psychology/Behavior

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams  ,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University  
 Acknowledgements

Jay  Ayier,  J.D.,  Esquire  Attorney

LaRecca Monique  Coxeff

Graduate  Research  Assistant
Texas  Southern  University

Texas  Redistricting  2011:    Karen  Callaghan,  PhD,    Michael  Adams  ,  PhD,  Texas  Southern  University