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ENGR 371 - Probability and Statistics

Drs. Lynch and Ghrayeb

Final Examination April 29, 2010

1) (10 Marks) In a particular area, there are just three makes of cars available: Ford (60% of the total), Renault

(30%) and Honda (10%). The carburetors on Fords have a 0.09 probability of failure, those on Renaults

have a 0.05 chance and those on Hondas have a 0.02 chance of failure. If a car with a failed carburetor is

selected at random, what is the probability that it is a Ford?

2) (10 Marks) A multiple-choice quiz has 200 questions each with 4 possible answers of which only 1 is the

correct answer. What is the probability that sheer guesswork yields from 25 to 30 correct answers for 80

of the 200 problems about which the student has no knowledge? [HINT: approximation may be helpful

here]

3) (10 Marks) Let X and Y represent two random variables whose joint density function is

fxY^y) = \ o, elsewhere

a) Find fy(y).

b) Are X and Y independent? Explain.

c) Find P(Y < \\X = § ) .

4) (10 Marks) Two independent experiments are being run in which two different types of paints are compared.

Eighteen specimens are painted using type A and the drying time, in hours, is recorded on each. The same

is done with type B .

a) Suppose that the population standard deviations are both known to be 1.0. Assuming that the mean

drying time is equal for the two types of paint, find P(XA~ XB > 1-0), where XA and XB are average .

drying times for samples of size TIA = TIB = 18.

b) Repeat Part (a) w h e n the population standard deviations are unknown, but they are still equal and

estimated to be s — 0.96.

5) (10 Marks) A random sample of 100 automobile owners shows that, in the province of Quebec, an automobile

is driven on the average 2 3 , 500 kilometers per year with a standard deviation of 3900 kilometers.

a) Construct a 9 9 % confidence interval for the average number of kilometers an automobile is driven

annually in Quebec.

b) What can we assert with 9 9 % confidence about the possible size of our error if we estimate the average

number of kilometers driven by car in Quebec to be 2 3 , 500 kilometers per year?

6) (10 Marks) The life in hours for a battery is known to be normally distributed with standard deviation a — 1

hours. A random sample of 16 batteries has a mean life of x — 20.3 hours.

a) Test H : \i = 20 versus Hi : fi > 20 for a = 0.05.

0

c) What is the (3 error for the test in part (a) if the true m e a n is 20.75 hours?

F o r m u l a S h e e t for E N G R 3 7 1 - Fall 2 0 1 0

The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n\ are of one kind, n are of a second kind, . . . , 2

th

r

• P(A UBUC) = P(A) + P(B) + P{C) - P{A n B ) - P(A DC)- P(B n C ) + P ( A n B fl C), where A, 5 ,

and C are any three events.

P ( A | B ) - « P ( Bf) =

~ P(B) where P ( B ) * 0.

• If the events B±,B2, • • •, Pfc constitute a partition of a sample space S such that P{Bi) ^ 0 for i = 1 , 2 , . . . , fc,

then for any event A of 5, P(J4) = £ P(Bi C) A) = J2 P(A\Bi)P(Bi).

i—l i=l

• Bayes's Rule: If the events B^Bi,... constitute a partition of a sample space 5 such that P(Bi) ^ 0

for i = 1 , 2 , . . . , k, then for any event A of S such that P ( A ) 7^ 0

P \A)=

{BT ^ni) , , forr=1)2) ...,*

• P ( x ) = P ( X < a:) where X is a random variable and F(x) is its cumulative distribution function.

• f(x) = P(X = x) is the probability density (distribution or mass) function of random variable X.

• E[X] = J2 f( ) x x

where X is a discrete random variable.

all x

all x

2

x

\i — np and a = npq. 2

) x = 1 , 2 , 3 , . . . with yb — l/p and <7 = (1 — p)/p . 2

2

r ,:E 7 2 2

f(x) = l[ P

0,

' *

elsewhere

> U

where ft > 0.

Y

The correlation between random variables X and Y is

PXY

(JXO'Y

If X i , X2, .. ., X n represent a random sample of size n, then the sample variance is defined by the statistic

b

- ~ i

where X is t h e sample mean.

Let X i , X2, . . . X be independent random variables that are all normal with mean fi and standard

n

deviation a. Then the random variable T = x-n£• has t— distribution with v = n — 1 degrees of freedom.

q /

• If z is the mean of a random sample of size n from a population with known variance a , a (1 — a) 100%

2

_ (J _ (J

where z /

a 2 is the z-value leaving an area of a/2 to the right.

a

/JL < X + Z a —=

In the case a 2

is unknown, the above expression becomes

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