Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
YEARBOOK
2010
Armaments,
Disarmament and
International
Security
Summary
STOCKHOLM INTERNATIONAL
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict,
armaments, arms control and disarmament. Established in 1966, SIPRI provides data,
analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers,
media and the interested public.
GOVERNING BOARD
Ambassador Rolf Ekéus, Chairman (Sweden)
Dr Dewi Fortuna Anwar (Indonesia)
Dr Alexei G. Arbatov (Russia)
Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi (Algeria)
Jayantha Dhanapala (Sri Lanka)
Dr Nabil Elaraby (Egypt)
Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger (Germany)
Professor Mary Kaldor (United Kingdom)
The Director
DIRECTOR
Dr Bates Gill (United States)
Signalistgatan 9
SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden
Telephone: +46 8 655 97 00
Fax: +46 8 655 97 33
Email: sipri@sipri.org
Internet: www.sipri.org © SIPRI 2010
THE SIPRI YEARBOOK
The SIPRI Yearbook was first published in 1969 and is now in its 41st edition. SIPRI
Yearbook 2010 presents a combination of original data in areas such as world military
expenditure, international arms transfers, arms production, nuclear forces, major armed
conflicts and multilateral peace operations with state-of-the-art analysis of important
aspects of arms control, peace and international security. The Yearbook is written by both
SIPRI researchers and invited outside experts.
This booklet summarizes the contents of SIPRI Yearbook 2010 and gives samples of the
data and information in its appendices and annexes.
CONTENTS
Introduction. International security, armaments and disarmament in 2010 2
1. A world without nuclear weapons: fantasy or necessity? 3
5. Military expenditure 10
6. Arms production 12
7. International arms transfers 14
8. World nuclear forces 16
Annexes 22
INTRODUCTION. INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, ARMAMENTS AND
DISARMAMENT IN 2010
bates gill
As the analyses in SIPRI Yearbook 2010 how to provide them. Meanwhile, the
suggest, 2009 began hopefully for many Euro-Atlantic security partnership also
with the advent of a new administration struggles to define new roles and
in the United States. In addition, some relationships consistent with the threat
positive momentum was generated environment for the coming decades.
around the goals of arms control, Many of these challenges are amply
disarmament and non-proliferation, demonstrated in the ongoing difficulties
resulting in important declarations and in stabilizing Afghanistan.
concrete actions in support of those Continued upward growth in
goals. However, 2009 also showed just military spending, arms production and
how difficult it is to make continued arms transfers will depend on how the
progress in meeting the many global financial situation changes, as
challenges that the world faces today. well as on developments in the conflicts
The financial crisis and economic in Afghanistan and Iraq. The year 2010
recession that affected most of the globe will be important for disarmament and
appeared to have little effect on levels of non-proliferation as well, with the
military expenditure, arms production world watching for progress in bilateral
or arms transfers. However, the crisis disarmament between Russia and the
probably did undermine the willingness USA. The world will also look for
and ability of major governments and progress on disarmament and tightened
multilateral institutions to invest other, controls against would-be proliferators
non-military resources to address the in the context of a successful Non-
challenges and instabilities that Proliferation Treaty Review
threaten societies and individuals Conference. The Conference on
around the world. Disarmament in Geneva will need to
The contributions to SIPRI Yearbook begin substantive negotiations as called
2010 describe a world at a critical for in the draft programme of work
turning point. On questions of adopted in 2009, such as on a fissile
international security, the world faces material cut-off treaty. New
continuing changes in the nature of proliferation challenges in the area of
armed conflict and instability towards dual-use technologies also require the
greater diffusion of the means and international community to develop
actors involved in violence. Civilian more effective mechanisms to prevent
contributions to peace operations are their misuse.
needed, but the international
community continues to struggle with
james e. goodby
introduction 3
2. ARMED CONFLICT, CRIME AND CRIMINAL VIOLENCE
ekaterina stepanova
No. of conflicts
trafficking networks. In such conflict
10
areas, organized crime and the shadow
5
economy can only be effectively
addressed once the state has already 0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
40
number of civilian tasks mandated in
30
United Nations Security Council
20
resolutions for UN peace operations and
10
the number of civilian missions
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 undertaken by regional organizations
Conducting Ad hoc Regional organ- United
organization: coalition ization or alliance Nations have increased dramatically in the past
five years. These increases are coupled
with a near doubling of the number of
Peace operations, by region, 2009
civilians assigned to global multilateral
No. of Total personnel peace operations: they currently exceed
operations deployed 6500.
Africa 16 85 562 On the 10th anniversary of the
Americas 2 9 571 seminal Brahimi report, which
Asia 9 88 270 highlighted for the first time the
Europe 17 19 750 centrality of the civilian contribution to
Middle East 10 16 125
the effectiveness of UN peace
Total 54 219 278 operations and called for a
strengthened UN capacity in this area,
The number of personnel deployed to 2009 was marked by sustained
peace operations increased by 16 per cent attention to the civilian dimension.
over 2008 to reach 219 278 by the end of Although that dimension has been
2009, 89 per cent of whom were military strengthened by a range of recent
personnel and 11 per cent civilian staff. institutional innovations (both at the
With no new operations in 2009, the multilateral and national level) to
increase in the number of personnel overcome the deployment challenges
200 000
4000
avoid duplication of tasks within the
3000
mission. 2000
1000
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
In 2009 the chief institutions of the (CSDP), but little progress could be
Euro-Atlantic space—the North Atlantic noted on harmonizing member states’
Treaty Organization (NATO), the defence spending or force structures.
European Union (EU) and the CDSP missions have filled useful niches
Organization for Security and but remain a minor aspect of the EU’s
Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)— overall security impact. The Lisbon
celebrated several anniversaries but had Treaty entered into force in December,
no cause for euphoria. In face of creating new political leadership posts
setbacks in Afghanistan and Iraq, the in Brussels albeit first filled by little-
2008 Georgia conflict, and a global known candidates. It creates new
economic crisis, each institution had to openings for EU ‘solidarity’ operations
rethink its strategies and even its raison to help members in non-warlike crises,
d’être. but national choices will determine how
NATO in its 60th anniversary year far these are explored.
faced continued obstacles, both military Russia published in November 2009 a
and political, to success in Afghanistan, full draft of the European security
with more voices questioning the realism treaty it proposed in 2008. The treaty is
of its aims. NATO–Russia relations seen by many in the West as aiming to
improved as NATO echoed President freeze strategic frontiers while
Barack Obama’s attempt at a ‘re-set’ and downplaying the human rights-related
resiled from early eastward enlargement. and reforming principles of the OSCE.
Obama’s revised missile defence plans Nevertheless, interest was shown from
were also less provocative to Russia, yet many sides in exploring options for a
the overall relationship remained fragile. more inclusive pan-European approach
NATO began a debate on revising its to security, and this discussion is being
Strategic Concept, which will raise pursued through a ‘Corfu process’ of
difficult and divisive issues about NATO’s informal dialogue rooted in the OSCE.
underlying guarantees, its nuclear The EU, NATO and the OSCE must
doctrines and its newer security tasks. learn lessons but also find new
The EU proceeded cautiously with dynamism to justify their continued
enlargement plans in the Western existence. Many current security
Balkans and sought to reinvigorate its challenges require global cooperation
Neighbourhood Policy towards the and the West must increasingly focus
former Soviet Union. The year 2009 on how to work with new ‘rising’
marked the 10th anniversary of the powers.
Common Security and Defence Policy
SIPRI’s databases, which provide the foundation for much of SIPRI’s research and
analysis and are an unrivalled source of basic data on armaments, disarmament
and international security, are available at <http://www.sipri.org/databases/>.
Offers information on all UN and non-UN peace operations conducted since 2000,
including location, dates of deployment and operation, mandate, participating
countries, number of personnel, costs and fatalities.
Gives consistent time series on the military spending of 172 countries since 1988,
allowing comparison of countries’ military spending : in local currency, at current
prices; in US dollars, at constant prices and exchange rates ; and as a share of GDP.
1500
since 2000. Military expenditure
1000
comprised approximately 2.7 per cent of
global gross domestic product (GDP) in
500
2009. All regions and subregions saw an
0
increase in 2009, except the Middle
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
East.
To allow comparison over time, the figures in the bar The global economic crisis had little
chart are in US dollars at constant (2008) prices.
impact on world military spending in
Military expenditure, by region, 2009 2009, as most major economies boosted
public spending to counteract the
Region Spending ($ b.) recession, postponing deficit reduction.
Africa 27.4 While military expenditure was not a
North Africa 10.0 major feature of economic stimulus
Sub-Saharan Africa 17.4 packages, it was not generally cut either.
Americas 738 Nine of the top 10 spenders increased
Central America 5.6 military spending in 2009. However,
and the Caribbean
some smaller economies less able to
North America 680
South America 51.8
sustain large deficits did cut spending.
Natural resource revenues appear to
Asia and Oceania 276
Central Asia ..
be a significant driver of military
East Asia 210 expenditure in many developing
Oceania 20.4 countries, with rapidly rising revenues
South Asia 44.0 from oil and other commodities in
Europe 386 recent years, due to increases in both
Eastern 60.0 price and production. This may lead to
Western and Central 326 increased military spending as a means
Middle East 103 of protecting resources from internal or
World total 1 531 external threats, while resource
The spending figures are in current (2009) US revenues are often a source of funding
dollars. for arms purchases. The drop in
major weapon systems and increased SIPRI military expenditure figures are
focus on information and based on information available in open
communications technology, but no sources, primarily supplied by
major strategic shift. governments. They represent a low
Military spending patterns in estimate; the true level of military
Afghanistan and Iraq both reflect the spending is certainly higher, due to
demands of rebuilding a country’s omitted countries and items of spending.
armed forces from scratch following Nonetheless, SIPRI estimates capture
external invasion and with continued the great majority of global military
requirement for substantial external spending and accurately represent
funding. overall trends.
susan t. jackson
25
remained by far the largest exporters,
20
followed by Germany, France and the
15
United Kingdom. Together these five
10
countries accounted for 76 per cent of
5
the volume of exports for 2005–2009.
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Although the dominant position of the
first-tier suppliers, the USA and Russia,
Bar graph: annual totals; line graph: five-year is unlikely to be challenged in the near
moving average (plotted at the last year of each five-
year period). future, the second-tier of arms suppliers
is growing in number.
The five largest suppliers of major The major recipient region for the
conventional weapons, 2005–2009 period 2005–2009 was Asia and
Oceania, followed by Europe and the
Share of Main recipients
global arms (share of supplier’s Middle East. The major recipient
Supplier exports (%) transfers) countries for 2005–2009 were China,
USA 30 South Korea (14%) India, South Korea, the United Arab
Israel (11%) Emirates (UAE) and Greece. Asian and
UAE (11%) Middle Eastern countries are expected
Russia 23 China (35%) to remain among the world’s largest
India (24%) importers
Algeria (11%)
Israel, Singapore and Algeria were
Germany 11 Turkey (14%)
not among the 10 largest arms
Greece (13%)
South Africa (12%) importers for the period 2000–2004 but
France 8 UAE (25%) ranked sixth, seventh and ninth for
Singapore (21%) 2005–2009. Recent arms acquisitions
Greece (12%) by certain states in Latin America, the
UK 4 USA (23%) Middle East, North Africa and South
India (15%) East Asia suggest that a pattern of
Saudi Arabia (10%)
reactive arms acquisitions is emerging,
No. of reports
and Morocco are engaged in an ‘arms 90
shannon n. kile
The year 2009 saw new momentum was also achieved at the Conference on
behind global efforts to promote nuclear Disarmament in Geneva, when the 65
disarmament and non-proliferation. member states agreed to open
Russia and the USA opened formal negotiations on a fissile material cut-off
negotiations on a new strategic arms treaty (FMCT) after a 12-year impasse;
reduction treaty to succeed the 1991 however, the negotiations were
Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation subsequently blocked by procedural
of Strategic Offensive Arms (START reservations from Pakistan.
Treaty) and the 2002 Strategic In 2009 little progress was made
Offensive Reduction Treaty (SORT). towards resolving the long-running
The main points of contention centred controversies over the nuclear
on simplifying the START Treaty’s programmes of Iran and North Korea,
verification provisions and adapting its which have been the focus of
rules for counting deployed nuclear international concerns about the spread
warheads. The two sides failed to of nuclear weapons. These concerns
conclude the negotiations prior to were heightened by North Korea’s
START’s expiration in December 2009 decisions to conduct a second nuclear
but did so in the spring of 2010. The test explosion in May 2009 and to
resulting New START Treaty, which resume production of plutonium for
mandated modest additional reductions nuclear weapons. The controversy over
in Russian and US deployed strategic the scope and nature of Iran’s nuclear
nuclear warheads and associated activities intensified during the year
delivery vehicles, was signed in Prague with the revelation that Iran was
on 8 April 2010. building a previously undeclared
Other positive developments in 2009 uranium enrichment plant. In
included the entry into force of two new November the Board of Governors of
nuclear weapon-free zone treaties, one the International Atomic Energy
covering Central Asia and the other Agency (IAEA) criticized Iran for not
Africa. In September the UN Security fulfilling its safeguards obligations and
Council unanimously adopted a for not complying with previous
politically binding resolution that demands by the Board and the UN
codified a broad consensus on a range of Security Council that it suspend all
actions to promote nuclear uranium enrichment-related activities.
disarmament and non-proliferation and
to address the threat of nuclear
terrorism. An apparent breakthrough
zdzislaw lachowski
ECOWAS
Guinea
NGF = non-governmental forces .
nenne bodell
annexes 23
RECENT SIPRI PUBLICATIONS
China and Nuclear Arms Control: Current Positions and Future Policies
SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security no. 2010/4
By Bates Gill
SIPRI, April 2010
Demilitarizing mining areas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: the case of
northern Katanga Province
SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security no. 2010/1
By Ruben de Koning
SIPRI, January 2010
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or directly from Oxford University Press
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