Data Error analysis

Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared

January 10
February 12 10 2.00 2.00 4.00
March 13 12 1.00 1.00 1.00
April 16 13 3.00 3.00 9.00
May 19 16 3.00 3.00 9.00
June 23 19 4.00 4.00 16.00
July 26 23 3.00 3.00 9.00
August 30 26 4.00 4.00 16.00
September 28 30 -2.00 2.00 4.00
October 18 28 -10.00 10.00 100.00
November 16 18 -2.00 2.00 4.00
December 14 16 -2.00 2.00 4.00
20 14 6.00 6.00 36.00

Total 4.00 36.00 176.00

Average 0.36 3.27 16.00
Bias MAD MSE
SE 4.42
Next perio 20
Chapter 4: Example 1
Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area Forecasting

35

Value
30
Data Error analysis 25
Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared 20
January 10 15
February 12 10
March 13 5
April 16 11.67 4.33 4.33 18.78 0
May 19 12.75 13.67 5.33 5.33 28.44 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
June 23 16.00 7.00 7.00 49.00 Time
July 26 19.33 6.67 6.67 44.44
August 30 22.67 7.33 7.33 53.78
September 28 26.33 1.67 1.67 2.78
October 18 28.00 -10.00 10.00 100.00
November 16 25.33 -9.33 9.33 87.11
December 14 20.67 -6.67 6.67 44.44
Total 6.33 58.33 428.78
Average 0.70 6.48 47.64
Bias MAD MSE
SE 7.83
Next period 16
 Forecasting

35
30
25
Demand
20 Forecas
15 t
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time
Chapter 4: Example 2
Forecasting Weighted moving averages 3 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the shaded
shaded area.
area. Enter
Enter
weights
weights in
in INCREASING
INCREASING order
order from
from top
top to
to
bottom.
bottom. 35

Value
Data Error analysis 30

Period Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared 25

20
Jan 10 1
15
Feb 12 2
10
Mar 13 3
5
Apr 16 12.2 3.8 3.8 14.7
0
May 19 14.3 4.7 4.7 21.8
1 2 3 4 5
Jun 23 17.0 6.0 6.0 36.0
T
Jul 26 20.5 5.5 5.5 30.3
Aug 30 23.8 6.2 6.2 38.0
Sep 28 27.5 0.5 0.5 0.3
Oct 18 28.3 -10.3 10.3 106.8
Nov 16 23.3 -7.3 7.3 53.8
Dec 14 18.7 -4.7 4.7 21.8
Total 4.3 49.0 323.3
Average 0.5 5.4 35.9
Bias MAD MSE
SE 6.8
Next perio 15.33333
 Forecasting

35
Value

30
25
Demand
20 Forecas
15 t
10
5
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Time
 Ft = Ft – 1 + a(At – 1 - F
NAÏVE MA2P MA3P WMA EXPSM
2 2
3 3 0.2
X Y 5

1 20
2 25 20 24.0
3 31 25 22.5 23.0 24.2
4 42 31 28.0 25.3 28.6 27.0 25.6
5 39 42 36.5 32.7 37.6 34.4 28.8
6 46 39 40.5 37.3 40.2 36.6 30.9
7 38 46 42.5 42.3 43.2 43.4 33.9
8 48 38 42.0 41.0 41.2 41.0 34.7
9 44 48 43.0 44.0 44.0 44.3 37.4
10 51 44 46.0 43.3 45.6 45.5 38.7
11 56 51 47.5 47.7 48.2 48.1 41.2
12 52 56 53.5 50.3 54.0 45.9 44.1
13 59 52 54.0 53.0 53.6 51.4 45.7
14 65 59 55.5 55.7 56.2 56.1 48.4
15 62 65 62.0 58.7 62.6 53.8 51.7
16 70 62 63.5 62.0 63.2 59.6 53.8
17 68 70 66.0 65.7 66.8 65.3 57.0
18 75 68 69.0 66.7 68.8 63.0 59.2
19 78 75 71.5 71.0 72.2 70.4 62.4
20 82 78 76.5 73.7 76.8 69.2 65.5
82 80.0 78.3 80.4 75.7 68.8
 210.0 1051.0 80.0 71.9
10.5 52.55
AVG(X) AVG(Y)

110.25 12953
2205 11036
665 1917.5

DEV ABSDEVSQUARED

1 20
2 25
3 31 22.5 8.5 8.5 72.25 27.42
4 42 28.0 14.0 14 196.00 33.33
5 39 36.5 2.5 2.5 6.25 6.41
6 46 40.5 5.5 5.5 30.25 11.96
7 38 42.5 -4.5 4.5 20.25 -11.84
8 48 42.0 6.0 6 36.00 12.50
9 44 43.0 1.0 1 1.00 2.27
10 51 46.0 5.0 5 25.00 9.80
11 56 47.5 8.5 8.5 72.25 15.18
12 52 53.5 -1.5 1.5 2.25 -2.88
13 59 54.0 5.0 5 25.00 8.47
14 65 55.5 9.5 9.5 90.25 14.62
15 62 62.0 0.0 0 0.00 0.00
16 70 63.5 6.5 6.5 42.25 9.29
17 68 66.0 2.0 2 4.00 2.94
18 75 69.0 6.0 6 36.00 8.00
19 78 71.5 6.5 6.5 42.25 8.33
20 82 76.5 5.5 5.5 30.25 6.71
80.0
 86.0 98.0 731.5 162.5

Bias MAD MSE

4.3 4.9 36.575

MAPE
9.03

TB BB 5
1 174 72
2 145 48
3 164 67
4 177 71
5 162 60
6 156 58
7 180 82

1158.0 458.0
165.4286 65.4286
AVG(X) AVG(Y)
27366.61 12953
547332.2 0
-544462 12953
Ft = Ft – 1 + a(At – 1 - Ft – 1)
1)
EXPSM
a
0.25 0.4
X2 Y2 XY ÿ

1 400 20 25.157
24.0 24.0 4 625 50 28.041
24.3 24.4 9 961 93 30.924
25.9 27.0 16 1764 168 33.808
30.0 33.0 25 1521 195 36.691
32.2 35.4 36 2116 276 39.574
35.7 39.6 49 1444 266 42.458
36.2 39.0 64 2304 384 45.341
39.2 42.6 81 1936 396 48.225
40.4 43.2 100 2601 510 51.108
43.0 46.3 121 3136 616 53.992
46.3 50.2 144 2704 624 56.875
47.7 50.9 169 3481 767 59.759
50.5 54.1 196 4225 910 62.642
54.1 58.5 225 3844 930 65.526
56.1 59.9 256 4900 1120 68.409
59.6 63.9 289 4624 1156 71.292
61.7 65.6 324 5625 1350 74.176
65.0 69.3 361 6084 1482 77.059
68.3 72.8 400 6724 1640 79.943
71.7 76.5 SUM(XY)
 2870.0 61019.0 12953.0
143.5 3050.95 647.65
AVG(X2) AVG(Y2) AVG(XY)

SUM(XY) - n.(AVG(X).AVG(Y))
b= ------------------------------------------- -- = 2.883
SUM(X2) - n.(AVG(X))2

a= AVG(Y) + b.AVG(X) = 22.274

DEV ABSDEVSQUARED

23.0 8.0 8 64.00 25.81

28.6 13.4 13.4 179.56 31.90
37.6 1.4 1.4 1.96 3.59
40.2 5.8 5.8 33.64 12.61
43.2 -5.2 5.2 27.04 -13.68
41.2 6.8 6.8 46.24 14.17
44.0 0.0 0 0.00 0.00
45.6 5.4 5.4 29.16 10.59
48.2 7.8 7.8 60.84 13.93
54.0 -2.0 2 4.00 -3.85
53.6 5.4 5.4 29.16 9.15
56.2 8.8 8.8 77.44 13.54
62.6 -0.6 0.6 0.36 -0.97
63.2 6.8 6.8 46.24 9.71
66.8 1.2 1.2 1.44 1.76
68.8 6.2 6.2 38.44 8.27
72.2 5.8 5.8 33.64 7.44
76.8 5.2 5.2 27.04 6.34
80.4
 80.2 95.8 700.2 150.3

Bias MAD MSE

4.01 4.79 35.01

MAPE
8.35

X2 Y2 XY ÿ
30276 5184 12528 72.769
21025 2304 6960 47.935
26896 4489 10988 64.205
31329 5041 12567 75.338
26244 3600 9720 62.493
24336 3364 9048 57.355
32400 6724 14760 77.907

SUM(XY)
192506.0 30706.0 76571.0
27500.857 4386.5714 10938.714
AVG(X2) AVG(Y2) AVG(XY)
 SUM(XY) - n.(AVG(X).AVG(Y))
b= ------------------------------------------- -- = 0.856
SUM(X2) - n.(AVG(X))2

a= AVG(Y) + b.AVG(X) = -76.23

BB = -76.234 + 0.856 TB
 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Chapter 4: Example 9
Forecasting Multiplicative decomposition
Enter
Enter past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area.
area. Do
Do not
not change
change the
the time
time
12 seasons period
period numbers!
numbers!

Data
Period Demand (y Time (x) Average Ratio Seasonal Smoothed UnadjustedAdjusted
Period 1 80 1 94.00 0.85 0.96 83.56 85.86 82.21
Period 2 70 2 94.00 0.74 0.85 82.25 86.33 73.47
Period 3 80 3 94.00 0.85 0.90 88.47 86.79 78.48
Period 4 90 4 94.00 0.96 1.06 84.60 87.26 92.82
Period 5 113 5 94.00 1.20 1.31 86.36 87.72 114.78
Period 6 110 6 94.00 1.17 1.22 89.91 88.19 107.89
Period 7 100 7 94.00 1.06 1.12 89.52 88.65 99.02
Period 8 88 8 94.00 0.94 1.06 82.72 89.12 94.80
Period 9 85 9 94.00 0.90 0.96 88.78 89.58 85.77
Period 10 77 10 94.00 0.82 0.85 90.48 90.05 76.64
Period 11 75 11 94.00 0.80 0.85 88.13 90.51 77.03
Period 12 82 12 94.00 0.87 0.85 96.35 90.98 77.43
Period 13 85 13 94.00 0.90 0.96 88.78 91.44 87.55
Period 14 85 14 94.00 0.90 0.85 99.88 91.91 78.22
Period 15 93 15 94.00 0.99 0.90 102.85 92.37 83.53
Period 16 95 16 94.00 1.01 1.06 89.30 92.84 98.76
Period 17 125 17 94.00 1.33 1.31 95.53 93.30 122.09
Period 18 115 18 94.00 1.22 1.22 94.00 93.77 114.72
Period 19 102 19 94.00 1.09 1.12 91.31 94.23 105.26
Period 20 102 20 94.00 1.09 1.06 95.88 94.70 100.74
Period 21 90 21 94.00 0.96 0.96 94.00 95.16 91.11
Period 22 78 22 94.00 0.83 0.85 91.65 95.63 81.39
Period 23 82 23 94.00 0.87 0.85 96.35 96.09 81.78
Period 24 78 24 94.00 0.83 0.85 91.65 96.56 82.18
Period 25 105 25 94.00 1.12 0.96 109.67 97.02 92.89
Period 26 85 26 94.00 0.90 0.85 99.88 97.49 82.97
Period 27 82 27 94.00 0.87 0.90 90.68 97.95 88.58
Period 28 115 28 94.00 1.22 1.06 108.10 98.42 104.70
Period 29 131 29 94.00 1.39 1.31 100.11 98.88 129.39
Period 30 120 30 94.00 1.28 1.22 98.09 99.35 121.54
Period 31 113 31 94.00 1.20 1.12 101.16 99.81 111.49
Period 32 110 32 94.00 1.17 1.06 103.40 100.28 106.68
Period 33 95 33 94.00 1.01 0.96 99.22 100.74 96.46
Period 34 85 34 94.00 0.90 0.85 99.88 101.21 86.14
Period 35 83 35 94.00 0.88 0.85 97.53 101.67 86.53
Period 36 80 36 94.00 0.85 0.85 94.00 102.14 86.93
Total
Average Intercept 85.39483
Slope 0.465144

Ratios
 Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4 Season 5 Season 6 Season 7 Season 8 Season 9
0.85 0.74 0.85 0.96 1.20 1.17 1.06 0.94 0.90
0.90 0.90 0.99 1.01 1.33 1.22 1.09 1.09 0.96
1.12 0.90 0.87 1.22 1.39 1.28 1.20 1.17 1.01
Average 0.96 0.85 0.90 1.06 1.31 1.22 1.12 1.06 0.96

Forecasts
Period UnadjustedSeasonal Adjusted
37 102.61 0.96 98.24
38 103.07 0.85 87.72
39 103.54 0.90 93.62
40 104.00 1.06 110.64
41 104.47 1.31 136.69
42 104.93 1.22 128.37
43 105.40 1.12 117.73
44 105.86 1.06 112.62
45 106.33 0.96 101.80
46 106.79 0.85 90.89
47 107.26 0.85 91.28
48 107.72 0.85 91.68
Error analysis
Error |Error| Error^2
-2.21 2.21 4.87
-3.47 3.47 12.03
1.52 1.52 2.31
-2.82 2.82 7.98
-1.78 1.78 3.18
2.11 2.11 4.47
0.98 0.98 0.95
-6.80 6.80 46.30
-0.77 0.77 0.59
0.36 0.36 0.13
-2.03 2.03 4.12
4.57 4.57 20.91
-2.55 2.55 6.51
6.78 6.78 45.99
9.47 9.47 89.72
-3.76 3.76 14.16
2.91 2.91 8.49
0.28 0.28 0.08
-3.26 3.26 10.63
1.26 1.26 1.58
-1.11 1.11 1.24
-3.39 3.39 11.46
0.22 0.22 0.05
-4.18 4.18 17.45
12.11 12.11 146.54
2.03 2.03 4.12
-6.58 6.58 43.23
10.30 10.30 106.07
1.61 1.61 2.59
-1.54 1.54 2.38
1.51 1.51 2.27
3.32 3.32 11.02
-1.46 1.46 2.12
-1.14 1.14 1.29
-3.53 3.53 12.47
-6.93 6.93 47.99
2.033769 120.6517 697.297
0.056494 3.351436 19.36936
Bias MAD MSE
SE 5.62986
Season 10 Season 11 Season 12
0.82 0.80 0.87
0.83 0.87 0.83
0.90 0.88 0.85
0.85 0.85 0.85
Chapter 4: Example 8
Forecasting Regression/Trend analysis
IfIf this
this is
is trend
trend analysis
analysis then
then simply
simply enter
enter the
the past
past Regression
demands
demands in in the
the demand
demand column.
column. IfIf this
this is
is causal
causal
regression
regression then then enter
enter the
the y,x
y,x pairs
pairs with
with yy first
first and
and 160
enter
enter aa new new value
value of
of xx at
at the
the bottom
bottom in in order
order to to 140
forecast
forecast y. y.
Data Error analysis 120
Period Demand (y Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared 100
1997 74 1 67.25 6.75 6.75 45.56 80
1998 79 2 77.79 1.21 1.21 1.47 60
1998 80 3 88.32 -8.32 8.32 69.25 40
2000 90 4 98.86 -8.86 8.86 78.45 20
2001 105 5 109.39 -4.39 4.39 19.30 0
2002 142 6 119.93 22.07 22.07 487.15 0 1 2 3 4
2003 122 7 130.46 -8.46 8.46 71.64
Total 0.00 60.07 772.82
Intercept 56.71 Average 0.00 8.58 110.40
Slope 10.54 Bias MAD MSE
SE 12.43
Next perio 141 8
Correlation 0.89

Chapter 4: Example 12
Forecasting Regression/Trend analysis
IfIf this Regression
this is
is trend
trend analysis
analysis then
then simply
simply enter
enter the
the past
past
demands
demands in in the
the demand
demand column.
column. IfIf this
this is
is causal
causal
regression
regression then then enter
enter the
the y,x
y,x pairs
pairs with
with yy first
first and
and 4
enter
enter aa new new value
value of
of xx at
at the
the bottom
bottom in in order
order to to 3.5
forecast
forecast y. y.
Data Error analysis 3
Period Demand (y Period(x) Forecast Error Absolute Squared 2.5
Period 1 2 1 56.71429 -54.71429 54.71429 2993.653 2
Period 2 3 3 170.1429 -167.1429 167.1429 27936.73 1.5
Period 3 2.5 4 226.8571 -224.3571 224.3571 50336.13 1
Period 4 2 2 113.4286 -111.4286 111.4286 12416.33 0.5
Period 5 2 1 56.71429 -54.71429 54.71429 2993.653 0
Period 6 3.5 7 397 -393.5 393.5 154842.3 0 1 2 3 4
Total -1005.857 1005.857 251518.7
Intercept 1.75 Average -167.6429 167.6429 41919.79
Slope 0.25 Bias MAD MSE
SE 250.7582
Next perio 397 7
Correlation 0.901388
 Regression

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Regression

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Chapter 4: Example 4 (Alpha = 0.1)
Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1)
1) then
then enter
enter the
the Forecasting
past
past demands
demands inin the
the shaded
shaded area.
area.
250
Alpha 0.1

Value
200
Data Error Analysis
Quarter Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared 150

1 180 175.00 100

2 168 175.50 -7.50 7.50 56.25
50
3 159 174.75 -15.75 15.75 248.06
4 175 173.18 1.82 1.82 3.33 0
5 190 173.36 16.64 16.64 276.97 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time
6 205 175.02 29.98 29.98 898.70
7 180 178.02 1.98 1.98 3.92
8 182 178.22 3.78 3.78 14.31
Total 30.96 77.46 1501.54
Average 4.42 11.07 214.51
Bias MAD MSE
SE
Next perio 178.5959

Chapter 4: Example 4 (Alpha = 0.5)

Forecasting Exponential smoothing
Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1)
1) then
then enter
enter the
the Forecasting
past
past demands
demands inin the
the shaded
shaded area.
area.
250
Alpha 0.5
Value

200
Data Error Analysis
Quarter Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared 150
1 180 175.00 100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time
 250

Value
200

150

100
2 168 175.50 -7.50 7.50 56.25
50
3 159 174.75 -15.75 15.75 248.06
4 175 173.18 1.82 1.82 3.33 0
5 190 173.36 16.64 16.64 276.97 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time
6 205 175.02 29.98 29.98 898.70
7 180 178.02 1.98 1.98 3.92
8 182 178.22 3.78 3.78 14.31
Total 30.96 77.46 1501.54
Average 4.42 11.07 214.51
Bias MAD MSE
SE
Next perio 178.5959
 Forecasting

Demand
Forecas
t

2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time

Forecasting

Demand
Forecas
t

2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time
 Demand
Forecas
t

2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Time