Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
S
PROJECT
WORK
R
omit Bhatia (07103472)
S
hashank Gupta(07103473)
Is
han Rastogi(07103476)
S
aurabh Aswani(07103480)
1
CONTENTS :
5) Conclusion 22-23
6) Bibliography 24
2
INTRODUCTION ABOUT THE BIG BAZAAR :
Type Subsidiary of
Pantaloon Group
Founded 2001
Headquarters Jogeshwari, Mumbai,
India
Key people Vinay
Industry Retail
Products Department store
Owner Sandy
Parent Pantaloon Group
Website
http://bigbazaar.com//
3
Big Bazaar is a chain of department stores in India, currently
with more than 100 stores. It is owned by the Pantaloon Retail
India Ltd, Future Group. It follows the business model as Wal-
Mart and has considerable success in many Indian cities and small
towns. The idea was pioneered by entrepreneur Kishore
Biyani, the CEO of Future Group. Currently Big Bazaar stores are
located only in India. It is the biggest and the fastest growing
chain of department store and aims to have 150 by June 2009,
and 350 stores by the end of year 2010
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CITIES WHERE STORES ARE LOCATED IN INDIA::
5
COMPETITORS OF BIG BAZAAR :
1) RELIANCE FRESH
Reliance Fresh is the convenience store format which forms part of the
retail business of of Reliance Industries of India which is headed by Mukesh
Ambani. Reliance plans to invest in excess of Rs 25000 crores in the next 4
6
years in their retail division. The company already has in excess of 560
reliance fresh outlets across the country. These stores sell fresh fruits and
vegetables, staples, groceries, fresh juice bars and dairy products.
2)SPENCER’S RETAIL:
Spencer's Retail is one of India’s fastest growing retail stores. It has multiple
formats for retailing food, apparel, fashion, electronics, lifestyle products, music
and books.
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It is owned by the RPG Group, a major business house.
3)SUBHIKSHA :
Subhiksha is an Indian retail chain with more than 1400 outlets
selling groceries, fruits, vegetables, medicines and mobile
phones. It was started and is managed by R Subramaniam, an IIM
Ahmedabad alumni. Subhiksha plans to open 1000 outlets by
December 2008.[1] He also plans to invest Rs.500 crore to
8
increase the number of outlets to 2000 across the country by
2009.
4) Trent (Westside) :
Trent is the retail arm of the Tata group. Started in 1998, Trent
operates Westside, one of the many growing retail chains in India.
9
The foresight of the Tata group, which invested in retail relatively
early is paying high dividends as retail is one of the booming
sectors in India.
10
Trend Projection: One of the most commonly used
forecasting techniques is trend projection. As the name suggests,
this approach is based on the assumption that there is an
identifiable trend in a time series of data. Trend projection can
also be used as the starting point for identifying seasonal and
cyclical variations
St = So + bt
where
So = [( ∑ S )( ∑ t ) − ( ∑t )( ∑ S * t )] / d
2
[
b = n∑ S * t − ( ∑t )( ∑ S ) / d ]
d = n∑t 2 −( ∑t ) 2
11
Regression Technique: which helps to predict the value of
one variable for the given value of the other variable.
Y = a + bX
where
a = vertical intercept
b = marginal slope
Y = dependent variable
X = independent variable
n n
Thus ∑y i =1
i = na + b∑ x i
i =1
n n n
∑ xi yi = a ∑ xi + b∑ xi2
i =1 i =1 i =1
12
Moving Averages :: Moving averages rank among the most popular
techniques for the preprocessing of time series. They are used to filter random
"white noise" from the data, to make the time series smoother or even to
emphasize certain informational components contained in the time series.
What one does is to take the data from the last n periods,
average the data, and use that as the forecast for the next period.
13
whereas Trend projection is actually just regression analysis
where the only independent variable is time . One characteristic
of this method is that each observation has the same weight that
is the effect of the initial data point on the estimated data co-
efficient is just as great as the last data point. However ,in some
cases, more recent observation will contain more accurate
information about the future than those at the beginning of the
series.
Ft +1 = wAt + (1 − w) Ft
0 ≤ w ≤1
∑ T = 15 ∑ S = 897923
d = 50 b = 8929.1
So = 152797.3
St = 152797.3 + 8929.1 * T
Sales for 2008 : :
S6 = 206371.90
As b is the amount of growth and it is positive, it shows that the
annual sales would increase in the upcoming years.
**
All the sales figures are in millions.
15
**
All the sales figures are in million
Moving Averages:
16
Year Sales(A) 2 Year A-F (A – F)2
Moving
Average(F)
200 155445
3
200 176558
4
200 184632 166001.5 18630.5 347095530.3
5
200 185837 180595 5242 27478564
6
200 195451 185234.5 10216.5 104376872.3
7
200 190644
8
∑ (A-F)2 = 478950966.6
n=3
RMSE = 12635.28
**
All the sales figures are in million.
17
Year Sales(A) 3 Year A-F (A – F)2
Moving
Average(F)
200 155445
3
200 176558
4
200 184632
5
200 185837 172211.7 13625.3 185648800.1
6
200 195451 182342.3 13108.7 171838015.7
7
200 188640
8
∑ (A-F)2 = 357486815.8
n=2
RMSE = 13369.49
Since the RMSE of 2 year moving average is less than the RMSE of
3 year moving average, therefore 2 year moving average would
give a better forecasting.
18
**
All the sales figures are in million
Time Period X 1 2 3 4 5
∑xi = 15
∑yi = 1919
∑xi2 = 55
∑xi * yi = 28785
a = 3906.7
b = 46.3
y = 3906.7+46.3X
19
**
All the profits figures are in crores.
20
**
All the profits figures are in million.
EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING ::
2008 4108.2
∑ (A – F)2 = 2805273.73
n=5
so,
RMSE = 749.04
**
All the profits figures are in million
21
Year Profit (A) Forecast A–F ( A- F)2
with w =
0.5 (F)
2008 3942.2
∑ (A – F)2 = 3328423.41
n=5
RMSE = 815.90
**
All the profits figures are in million.
22
CONCLUSION ::
Using the above data we conclude that the company will probably
incur profits as the forecasting shows gain in annual profit and as
well as in annual sales.
In the following graph , the actual sales and the forecasted sales (
through trend projection , 2 year moving average, 3 year moving
average) are shown.
23
In the following graph , the actual profits and the forecasted
profits ( through Regression Technique , Exponential Smoothing
with w=0.3,Exponential Smoothing with w=0.5) are shown
**
All the profits figures are in million.
BIBLIOGRAPHY ::
24
www.google.com
finance.yahoo.com
msn.money.com
www.nseindia.com
www.wikipedia.com
www.futuregroup.in
www.futurebazaar.com
www.foxnews.com
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