Fashion Economic Trends
Camera Nazionale della Moda Italiana
The Italian Fashion Industry: Key Figures
T he Italian fashion industry
gained speed in the second
half of 2010, overcoming the bad
results in the early months of the
year.
A
t the time of writing the
outcome of Christmas sales
in Italy are not yet known,
however the consensus and the
polls about purchasing intention
point to a stability or a slight
increase in the purchase of apparel
and accessories over the 2009
T
Christmas level.
he forecast scenario of a
turnover growth (+6.5%) in
2010, is thus confirmed. The 2010
growth, however, leaves the
industry turnover lower than in
2008, and brings the Italian
fashion industry back to the mid-
T
nineties turnover level.
he recovery momentum is
limited by the persistent
weakness of consumption in
Europe and particularly in Italy
where the consumers confidence
is adversely affected by a negative
jan 2011
(textiles, clothing, leather, leathergoods, footwear))
opinion on the economic outlook
in the short term.
S
ales growth will continue
(+8%) in the first half of 2011.
The increase will however slow
down in the second half, affected
by the stagnating macroeconomic
framework and by the budgetary Page 2
policies announced in most Ther recovery keeps up the pace in
B
European countries. the 3d quarter of 2010. The sharp
est growth opportunities for increase in raw material prices have
not yet passed on consumers
italian fashion companies in
the next future will come from the Page 3
BRIC Countries (Brazil, Russia, Consumer confidence recovery is
India and China) where very slow in Italy, while keeps on
consumption is expected to grow improving in the rest of Europe and
in the US.
I
at a very fast pace. Positive score for exports, including
n just a decade, the size of clothing.
consumption goods market in
these countries will catch up the Page 4
BRICs watch
F
level of EUR27 Countries. Forecasts
rom this issue on FET
includes a watch on the
BRICs markets.
 A snapshot of current fashion industry situation
THIRD QUARTER: THE RECOVERY
KEEPS UP THE PACE THE SHARP
INCREASE IN RAW MATERIAL PRICES
HAVE NOT YET PASSED ON
CONSUMERS.

T wo consecutive quarters of
lively turnover growth (+10%
and +9.5% in Q2 and Q3
respectively) contributed to lift up
the short term climate in the industry.
The overall growth of turnover in
jan-oct was + 5.9%. The upstream
sector (yarns and fabrics), that was
hit very hard both in 2008 and 2009,

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is still the best performer (+ 11%).
he recovery has eventually
spread in downstream sectors as
well (+3.7%). Leather goods and
footwear performed better than the
clothing industry that did not fully

T
catched the recovery yet.
he production in physical terms,
grew by 6.4% in the first ten
months (+10.9% in the upstream and
+4.8% in the downstream sectors).
The parallel growth of physical
production and turnover shows that
prices were stable despite the
extraordinary growth of commodity
prices in 2010, that will be likely
passed on customers and eventually

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to retail prices in early 2011.
he rally of commodity was in
fact been very strong in 2010. In
November 2010, the Year to Year
average increase of prices in Euro for
textile commodities was 30%.

jan 2011 p2
 Domestic consumption and external trade
CONSUMERS CONFIDENCE RECOVERY IS SLOW IN ITALY, BUT KEEPS ON IMPROVING IN THE REST OF

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EUROPE AND IN THE US
he winter season was ushered by a generally weak climate for consumption. The Confcommercio
consumption index recorded a decrease in the overall consumption of italian households in
September and October. Durable goods, firstly cars, were the most affected while clothing and footwear
had a good start (+3.1% over the same month in 2009) in September, that died away in October .

T
Consumer expenditure intentions for apparel Christmas gifts were however reported stable or positive.
he ISAE indicators of consumer confidence improved in November, but failed to rebound strongly
and are still near to the low lewels reached at the beginning of the year. The slow recovery of
confidence is driven by two balancing trends: the perception of a better off personal situation (income
and savings) on one hand but a worsening of the prospects of future economic conditions on the other.
In the EU, consumer confidence catched up the long-term average level in November. In the U.S.,
consumer confidence was still strong in November.

J
FOREIGN TRADE: EXPORT GROWTH IS EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO APPAREL AS WELL.
an-Sept export figures were positive for the textile industry (+11.9%), leather goods and footwear
(+15%), apparel exports eventually recorded a growth (+3.2). Clothing exports were up in main
European market: the United Kingdom (+15.3), France (+9%) and Germany (+6.7%), but also in the US
(+14%) and in Asia (Hong Kong +42.3% and +10% in Asia as a whole). The overall performance of

I
fashion exports in the extra-EU (+10.8%) was better than in the EU markets (+8.6%)
mports (+13.6%) grew slightly more than exports (+9.5%). The trade balance is, however, improved
by almost 100mln euros on the first nine months of 2009, thanks to the leather sector, which offsets a
decrease of 168 million euros in the T-C sector.

jan 2011 p3
 BRICs watch
T he main issue of the post-crisis scenario
concerns the prospects for consumption growth
in Western Countries and in particular in Europe.
IN 2010 CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IN THE
BRICS WILL CATCH UP THE EUR27 LEVEL
Source: Goldman Sachs

Consumption has long been stagnant in Europe and

fiscal policies are expected to contribute more to
financial stability, keeping budget deficits low, than

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to economic and consumption growth.
he outlook is more favourable indeed for the
BRICs Countries (Brazil, Russia, India and
China) where consumption is expected to grow at
sustained rates. Household consumption has tripled
in the BRICs in the last decade and the absolute size
of the increase in the four Countries was higher than
in Europe as a whole!

A ccording to a recent forecast released by

Goldman Sachs the trend will keep its pace in
the new decade, and in 2020 the level of
consumption in the 4 BRICS Country will catch up
the level of EUR27 Countries.
C urrently, the BRICs account for only 7% of
italian fashion exports, but have tripled over the
decade, in line with the growth in consumption in
those countries.

Forecast
T he last available (oct-nov) leading indicators
calculated by the OECD show that the the
most intense phase of the recovery is come to an
T he US dollar, and all the currencies linked to
the dollar, are expected to be stronger against
the euro during the first half of the year with
end, replaced in almost all major countries by a positive effects for italian exports
stabilisation. Note that these indicators tend to
anticipate the movements of the economy by about OUTLOOK FOR THE ITALIAN FASHION INDUSTRY IN

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six months and those of the fashion industry by 8- 2011

E
10 months.
xceptions to this stabilisation are: Russia still
in full acceleration and Brazil, where the
second half of 2011 is expected to bring in a
he positive results of the second half of 2010
will drive the fashion industry results in the
first half of 2011 (+8% the turnover compared to
the 1st half of 2010). A rebalancing of the growth
in favour of downstream sectors will show up,

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recession.
he overall 2011 growth in consumption i will which will benefit from a better performance of

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be very moderate in Europe (+1.2%). Italy exports.
and Spain will be below the average (+0.9%) he growth will however slowdown in the
while a better performance is expected for second half of the year. Overall, the 2011
Germany (+1.4%), France (+1.4%) and the UK turnover growth rate will be near to the +6.5%
(+1.6%). In the U.S. consumption growth will be recorded in 2010.
around +1.6%.
Data processing and analysis by Marco Ricchetti