Magellan NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Election Survey Topline Results 032411

March 24, 2011

MEMORANDUM

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FR: DAVID FLAHERTY
MAGELLAN DATA AND MAPPING STRATEGIES
RE: NEW HAMPSHIRE 2012 GOP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY ELECTION
SURVEY TOPLINE RESULTS
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a
651N autodial survey of likely 2012 New Hampshire Republican primary voters,
and independent voters that are likely to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential
primary. The interviews were conducted March 22nd -‐ 23rd, 2011. This survey has a
margin of error of +/-‐ 3.84% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The survey
results are weighted based upon voter turnout demographics from the 2008
Republican Presidential primary.
T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter?

Republican .................................................................................. 74%
Independent ............................................................................... 26%

T2. As you may know, independent voters in New Hampshire can vote in the 2012
Presidential primary election. How likely are you to vote in the 2012 Presidential
primary election? (Asked to independent voters only)

Extremely Likely ...................................................................... 91%
Very Likely ..................................................................................... 4%
Somewhat Likely ......................................................................... 5%

T3. And if the 2012 Presidential primary election was being held today, would you
choose to vote in the Democrat primary or the Republican primary? (Asked to
independent voters only)

Republican primary ............................................................. 100%

Magellan ID# NHGOPPRIM-‐032211 New Hampshire 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Election Auto Survey Page 2 of 4
Field Dates: 3/22/11-‐3/23/11
MoE +/-‐ 3.84%, 651n
T4. How likely are you to vote in the 2012 Republican Presidential primary to
choose a nominee for President? (Asked to Republican and Independent
respondents)

Extremely Likely ...................................................................... 94%
Very Likely ..................................................................................... 5%
Somewhat Likely ......................................................................... 1%

Thinking now about candidate endorsements and how important they are to
youǥǥǥǥǥǥ

T5. How important are the endorsements of prominent New Hampshire political
figures of Republican Presidential candidates to you when deciding on which
candidate to support?

Extremely Important .............................................................. 13%
Very Important ......................................................................... 10%
Somewhat Important ............................................................. 34%
Not Important At All ............................................................... 40%
Undecided/Unsure ..................................................................... 3%

T6. How important are the endorsements of the top New Hampshire newspapers of
Republican Presidential candidates to you when deciding on which candidate to
support?

Extremely Important ................................................................. 6%
Very Important ............................................................................ 5%
Somewhat Important ............................................................. 32%
Not Important At All ............................................................... 54%

T7. Among the following New Hampshire political figures, whose endorsement
would have the biggest impact on your decision when deciding which Republican
Presidential candidate to support?

Kelly Ayotte ................................................................................ 24%
John Sununu ............................................................................... 16%
Ovide Lamontagne ................................................................... 11%
Charlie Bass ................................................................................... 6%
Frank Guinta ................................................................................. 3%
None of individuals mentioned makes a difference ... 40%

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies | 1685 Boxelder St. Ste 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 861-‐8585
Field Dates: 3/22/11-‐3/23/11
MoE +/-‐ 3.84%, 651n
ǥǥǥǥǥǥ

T8. Generally speaking, do you support the goals of the Tea Party all of the time,
most of the time, some of the time, or none of the time?

All of the time ............................................................................ 20%
Most of the time ........................................................................ 38%
Some of the time ....................................................................... 30%
None of the time .......................................................................... 9%

T9. When making your decision about which Republican primary candidate to
support for President, which of the following characteristics and factors matter the
most to you?

Ideas and visions of the future ............................................ 39%
Experience in business .......................................................... 22%
Overall life experiences ......................................................... 18%
None of the above characteristics ........................................ 7%
Likelihood of winning the NH primary ............................... 3%
Past success in winning elections ......................................... 2%
Endorsements from NH political figures ........................... 1%

T10. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself to be conservative, moderate or
liberal on most issues?

Conservative .............................................................................. 68%
Moderate ..................................................................................... 28%
Liberal ............................................................................................. 2%
No Opinion ..................................................................................... 2%

T11. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman?

Male ............................................................................................... 53%
Female .......................................................................................... 47%

Field Dates: 3/22/11-‐3/23/11
MoE +/-‐ 3.84%, 651n
T12. Which of the following age groups applies to you?

18-‐34 ................................................................................................ 7%
35-‐44 ............................................................................................. 15%
45-‐54 ............................................................................................. 27%
55-‐64 ............................................................................................. 23%
65+ ................................................................................................. 28%

T13. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? Press 1 if you are white, press
2 if you are Hispanic or Latino, press 3 if you are black or African American, press 4
if you are another ethnic group.

White............................................................................................. 94%
Black/African American ........................................................... 1%
Hispanic/Latino ........................................................................... 1%
Another ethnic group ................................................................ 4%


Magellan NH 2012 GOP Presidential Primary Election Survey Topline Results 032411

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March 24, 2011

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