U.S.

Government Finances

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 U.S. Government Finances
THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/
Table of Contents

Page

Summary Table Government Receipts, Outlays, Deficit and Debt 1960 to Present 3

Monthly Chartwork Government Receipts, Outlays, Deficit and Debt 2000 to Present
3 and 12 Month Moving Totals at Annual Rates, NSA
Receipts, Outlays and Deficit 4-5
Gross and Public Held Treasury Debt New Issuance v Outstandings 6-8
Coverage Ratios on 12 Month Moving Totals
Receipts to Outlays 9-10
Gross Treasury Debt to Receipts 11-12
Economic Burden Ratios on 12 Month Moving Totals
Outlays to GDP 13-14
Deficit to GDP 15
Gross Treasury Debt to GDP 16-17
Public Held Treasury Debt to Private National Savings 18-21

Long Term Fiscal Year Chartwork 1960 to Present

Government Receipts, Outlays, Deficit and Debt
Receipts, Outlays and Deficit 22-23
Gross, Agency/Trust and Public Held Treasury Debt New Issuance v Outstandings 24-30
Gross Interest Cost
Gross Interest Cost v Gross Debt Outstanding 31-32
Analysis of Determinants of Gross Interest Cost 33-38
Coverage Ratios
Receipts to Outlays 39-40
Gross Treasury Debt to Receipts 41-42
Receipts to Gross Interest 43-44
Economic Burden Ratios
Outlays to GDP 45-46
Deficit to GDP 47
Gross Treasury Debt to GDP 48-49
Public Held Treasury Debt to Private National Savings 50-53
US Government Finances Month End February 2011 THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

Receipts/Outlays/Deficit New Issuance Debt Outstanding Interest Cost Coverage Ratios Burden Ratios: Flows Burden Ratios: Outstdgs

Public Public Avg Yrs

Gross Held Gross Held to Gross Gross Receipts Receipts Gross % % % Public % Public % Gross % Public % Public
Treasury Treasury Treasury Treasury Maturity Interest Rate to to Gross Debt to Receipts Outlays % Deficit NI to NI to Debt to Debt to Debt to
$ Billions Receipts Outlays Deficit Debt Debt Debt Debt Mkt Debt Cost (%) Outlays Interest Receipts to GDP to GDP to GDP GPS NPS GDP GPS NPS
Calendar Average
1960's 124 130 -6 7 4 313 249 na 12 3.90 0.96 10.18 2.52 17.3 18.1 0.8 3.1 5.4 43.6 202.5 357.7
1970's 288 323 -35 47 37 558 420 3.14 34 6.02 0.89 8.57 1.94 17.3 19.4 2.1 12.0 22.7 33.5 135.7 257.6
1980's 726 882 -157 203 154 1776 1425 4.79 159 8.95 0.82 4.57 2.45 17.9 21.7 3.9 20.4 44.0 43.7 188.3 406.7
1990's 1353 1486 -134 280 149 4686 3368 5.73 318 6.79 0.91 4.25 3.46 18.4 20.2 1.8 12.4 29.7 63.7 280.1 673.0
2000's 2129 2449 -319 625 389 7925 4642 5.05 372 4.69 0.87 5.73 3.72 17.4 20.0 2.6 20.8 65.1 64.7 248.7 777.8
End Of Period
2000 Fiscal 2025 1789 236 18 -229 5674 3438 6.17 362 6.38 1.13 5.60 2.80 20.6 18.2 -2.4 -16.6 -55.2 57.8 248.9 829.7
2001 Fiscal 1991 1863 128 133 -100 5807 3339 6.08 359 6.19 1.07 5.54 2.92 19.5 18.2 -1.3 -6.9 -24.4 56.8 230.7 815.7
2002 Fiscal 1853 2011 -158 421 214 6228 3553 5.50 333 5.34 0.92 5.57 3.36 17.6 19.1 1.5 13.5 42.2 59.1 223.1 699.2
2003 Fiscal 1783 2160 -378 555 371 6783 3924 5.08 318 4.69 0.83 5.60 3.81 16.2 19.7 3.4 21.6 62.2 61.8 228.2 658.8
2004 Fiscal 1880 2293 -413 596 383 7379 4307 4.92 322 4.36 0.82 5.85 3.92 16.1 19.6 3.5 20.6 56.1 63.1 230.9 630.8
2005 Fiscal 2154 2472 -318 554 294 7933 4601 4.83 352 4.44 0.87 6.11 3.68 17.3 19.9 2.6 15.6 48.0 63.7 245.0 750.8
2006 Fiscal 2407 2655 -248 574 242 8507 4843 4.92 406 4.77 0.91 5.93 3.53 18.2 20.1 1.9 11.9 36.3 64.3 238.1 727.3
2007 Fiscal 2568 2729 -161 501 206 9008 5049 4.83 430 4.77 0.94 5.97 3.51 18.5 19.6 1.2 10.4 39.2 64.8 254.7 960.7
2008 Fiscal 2524 2983 -459 1017 765 10025 5814 4.08 451 4.50 0.85 5.60 3.97 17.5 20.7 3.2 36.4 131.8 69.6 276.5 1001.7
2009 Fiscal 2105 3530 -1425 1885 1740 11910 7555 4.08 383 3.22 0.60 5.49 5.66 14.9 25.0 10.1 73.3 209.9 84.5 318.3 911.2
2010 Fiscal 2162 3456 -1294 1652 1468 13562 9023 4.75 414 3.05 0.63 5.22 6.27 14.9 23.8 8.9 55.9 133.4 93.5 343.3 820.1
1Q '10 AR 1864 3180 -1316 1847 1920 12773 8294 4.50 226 1.77 0.59 8.24 6.85 12.9 22.0 9.1 74.5 182.0 88.4 321.8 786.3
2Q '10 AR 2572 3721 -1148 1715 1358 13202 8634 4.58 612 4.63 0.69 4.21 5.13 17.6 25.5 7.9 50.1 114.6 90.6 318.4 729.0
3Q '10 AR 2259 3420 -1161 1439 1557 13562 9023 4.75 236 1.74 0.66 9.56 6.00 15.3 23.2 7.9 57.8 134.7 92.0 335.3 781.1
4Q '10 AR 2127 3603 -1476 1854 1471 14025 9390 na 593 4.23 0.59 3.59 6.59 14.3 24.2 9.9 54.7 127.3 94.4 349.0 812.9
12 mo Yr Ago 2044 3522 -1478 1563 1359 12440 7941 4.50 416 3.34 0.58 4.92 6.09 14.4 24.9 10.4 54.3 140.4 87.9 317.5 820.6
12 mo 2230 3514 -1284 1755 1625 14195 9566 na 424 2.99 0.63 5.26 6.36 15.2 23.9 8.7 60.7 141.8 96.6 357.3 834.9
3 mo Yr Ago AR 2127 3547 -1420 1308 900 12440 7941 4.50 562 4.51 0.60 3.79 5.85 14.8 24.7 9.9 35.3 88.0 86.8 311.7 776.4
3 mo AR 2296 3698 -1402 1336 1162 14195 9566 na 590 4.16 0.62 3.89 6.18 15.5 24.9 9.4 43.2 100.6 95.5 355.5 828.0
Current mo AR 1328 3998 -2670 765 961 14195 9566 na 261 1.84 0.33 5.09 10.69 8.9 26.9 18.0 35.7 83.2 95.5 355.5 828.0
% YoY
2001 Fiscal -1.7 4.1 --- 644.3 -56.4 2.3 -2.9 --- -0.7 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2002 Fiscal -6.9 7.9 --- 215.7 nm 7.2 6.4 --- -7.5 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2003 Fiscal -3.8 7.4 --- 31.9 72.9 8.9 10.4 --- -4.3 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2004 Fiscal 5.5 6.2 --- 7.3 3.4 8.8 9.8 --- 1.1 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2005 Fiscal 14.5 7.8 --- -7.1 -23.3 7.5 6.8 --- 9.5 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2006 Fiscal 11.8 7.4 --- 3.7 -17.7 7.2 5.3 --- 15.2 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2007 Fiscal 6.7 2.8 --- -12.8 -14.8 5.9 4.3 --- 5.9 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2008 Fiscal -1.7 9.3 --- 103.1 271.0 11.3 15.1 --- 4.9 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2009 Fiscal -16.6 18.3 --- 85.3 127.5 18.8 29.9 --- -15.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2010 Fiscal 2.7 -2.1 --- -12.4 -15.6 13.9 19.4 --- 8.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
1Q '10 5.4 -10.8 --- 8.1 3.5 14.8 21.3 --- 69.9 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2Q '10 7.4 2.9 --- 2.5 -0.2 14.3 20.3 --- 0.6 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
3Q '10 9.5 1.1 --- -1.3 2.9 13.9 19.4 --- -5.8 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
4Q '10 9.0 2.8 --- 15.5 41.5 13.9 20.2 --- 2.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
12 mo 9.1 -0.2 --- 12.3 19.6 14.1 20.5 --- 2.0 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
3 mo 8.0 4.3 --- 2.1 29.1 14.1 20.5 --- 5.1 --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---

AR is Not Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate GPS and NPS are Gross Private Savings and Net Private Savings per National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs)

Sources:
US Government Financials sourced from US Department of the Treasury's Monthly Treasury Statement, Monthly Statement of the Public Debt and Quarterly Treasury Bulletin. National Income and Savings figures sourced from US Department of Commerce's NIPAs.
Current Month, last 3 Months and last 12 Months National Income and Savings figures have been extrapolated using the latest available quarterly data
 US Government Receipts Outlays Deficit
3 and 12 Month $ Totals

4000000 400000

200000
3500000

0
3000000
-200000
Receipts / Outlays $ Millions

2500000

Deficit $ Millions
-400000

2000000 -600000

-800000
1500000

-1000000
1000000
-1200000

500000
-1400000

0 -1600000

$12mo Deficit $3mo Receipts $3mo Outlays $12mo Receipts $12mo Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Receipts Outlays Deficit
% Change YoY 12 Month $ Totals Receipts Outlays v Deficit

25 400000

20 200000

0
15

-200000
Receipts / Outlays % YoY

10

Deficit $ Millions
-400000
5
-600000
0
-800000

-5
-1000000

-10
-1200000

-15 -1400000

-20 -1600000

$12mo Deficit %YoY Receipts %YoY Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Gross Treasury Debt
12 Month $ New Issuance Totals vs Outstandings

16000000 2500000

14000000
2000000

12000000

Gross New Issuance $ Millions

1500000
Gross Debt $ Millions

10000000

8000000 1000000

6000000
500000

4000000

0
2000000

0 -500000

$12mo Gross Debt Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Public Held Treasury Debt
12 Month $ New Issuance Totals vs Outstandings

12000000 2500000

10000000 2000000

Public New Issuance $ Millions

Public Held Debt $ Millions

8000000 1500000

6000000 1000000

4000000 500000

2000000 0

0 -500000

$12mo Held Public Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Gross and Public Held Treasury Debt
% Change YoY Outstandings

40 16000000

35
14000000
30
Gross and Public Held Debt % YoY

12000000

Gross and Public Held ebt $ Millions

25

20 10000000

15
8000000
10

5 6000000

0
4000000

-5
2000000
-10

-15 0

Held Public Gross Debt %YoY Gross Debt %YoY Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Coverage Ratios
12 Month Totals Receipts to Outlays

4000000 1.40

3500000
1.20

3000000
1.00

Ratio Receipts to Outlays

2500000
Outlays $ Millions

0.80

2000000

0.60
1500000

0.40
1000000

0.20
500000

0 0.00

Receipts to Outlays $12mo Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Coverage Ratios
12 Month Totals Receipts to Outlays

25 1.40

1.20
20

1.00
15

Ratio Receipts to Outlays

Outlays % YoY

0.80

10

0.60

5
0.40

0
0.20

-5 0.00

Receipts to Outlays %YoY Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Coverage Ratios
Gross Treasury Debt to 12 Month Totals Receipts

16000000 7.00

14000000
6.00

12000000
5.00

Ratio Gross Debt to Receipts

Gross Debt $ Millions

10000000
4.00

8000000

3.00
6000000

2.00
4000000

1.00
2000000

0 0.00

Gross Debt to Receipts Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Coverage Ratios
Gross Treasury Debt to 12 Month Totals Receipts

25 7.00

6.00
20

5.00

Ratio Gross Debt to Receipts

15
Gross Debt % YoY

4.00

10

3.00

5
2.00

0
1.00

-5 0.00

Gross Debt to Receipts %YoY Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Size of Government
12 Month Totals Outlays to GDP

4000000 30

3500000
25

3000000

20
2500000

% Outlays to GDP
Outlays $ Millions

2000000 15

1500000
10

1000000

5
500000

0 0

% Outlays to GDP $12mo Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Size of Government
12 Month Totals Outlays to GDP

25 30

20 25

15 20

% Outlays to GDP
Outlays % YoY

10 15

5 10

0 5

-5 0

% Outlays to GDP %YoY Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Size of Government
12 Month Totals Deficit to GDP

400000 4

-100000 0

-2
Deficit $ Millions

% Deficit to GDP
-600000 -4

-6

-1100000 -8

-10

-1600000 -12

% Deficit to GDP $12mo Deficit

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Income
12 Month Totals Gross Debt to GDP

16000000 120

14000000
100

12000000

80

Gross Debt to GDP %

Gross Debt $ Millions

10000000

8000000 60

6000000
40

4000000

20
2000000

0 0

% Gross Debt to GDP Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Income
12 Month Totals Gross Debt to GDP

25 120

20 100

15 80

Gross Debt to GDP %

Gross Debt % YoY

10 60

5 40

0 20

-5 0

% Gross Debt to GDP %YoY Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Savings
12 Month Totals Public Debt New Issuance to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings

2500000 300

250
2000000

200

Public New Issuance to Savings %

Public New Issuance $ Millions

1500000
150

1000000 100

50
500000

0
-50

-500000 -100

% Public NI to NPS % Public NI to GPS $12mo Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Savings
12 Month Totals Public Debt New Issuance to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings

40 300

35
250

30
200

Public New Issuance to Savings %

Public New Issuance % YoY

25

150
20

15 100

10
50

5
0
0

-50
-5

-10 -100

% Public NI to NPS % Public NI to GPS %YoY Held Public

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 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Savings
12 Month Totals Public Debt to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings

10000000 1200

9000000
1000
8000000

Public Held Debt to Savings %

7000000
Public Held Debt $ Millions

800
6000000

5000000 600

4000000
400
3000000

2000000
200
1000000

0 0

% Public Debt to NPS % Public Debt to GPS Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Savings
12 Month Totals Public Debt to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings

40 1200

35
1000
30

Public Held Debt to Savings %

25
Public Held Debt % YoY

800
20

15 600

10
400
5

0
200
-5

-10 0

% Public Debt to NPS % Public Debt to GPS %YoY Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Receipts Outlays Deficit
Annual Fiscals

4000000 400000

200000
3500000

0
3000000
-200000
Receipts / Outlays $ Millions

2500000

Deficit $ Millions
-400000

2000000 -600000

-800000
1500000

-1000000
1000000
-1200000

500000
-1400000

0 -1600000

Deficit Receipts Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Receipts Outlays Deficit
% Change YoY Annual Fiscal Recepits Outlays vs Deficit

25 400000

20 200000

0
15

-200000
10
Receipts / Outlays % YoY

Deficit $ Millions
-400000
5
-600000
0
-800000

-5
-1000000

-10
-1200000

-15 -1400000

-20 -1600000

Deficit %YoY Receipts %YoY Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Gross Treasury Debt
Annual Fiscal New Issuance vs Outstandings

16000000 2500000

14000000
2000000

12000000

Gross New Issuance $ Millions

1500000
Gross Debt $ Millions

10000000

8000000 1000000

6000000
500000

4000000

0
2000000

0 -500000

$12mo Gross Debt Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Gross Treasury Debt
% Change YoY Outstandings

16000000 25

14000000
20

12000000

15
Gross Debt $ Millions

10000000

Gross Debt % YoY

8000000 10

6000000
5

4000000

0
2000000

0 -5

%YoY Gross Debt Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Agency/Trust Held Treasury Debt
Annual Fiscal New Issuance vs Outstandings

5000000 400000

4500000 300000

4000000
200000

Agency New Issuance $ Millions

3500000
Agency/Trust Debt $ Millions

100000

3000000
0
2500000
-100000
2000000

-200000
1500000

-300000
1000000

500000 -400000

0 -500000

$12mo Agency/Trust Held Agency/Trust

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Agency/Trust Held Treasury Debt
% Change YoY Outstandings

5000000 25

4500000

20
4000000

3500000
Agency/Trust Debt $ Millions

Agency/Trust Debt % YoY

15

3000000

2500000 10

2000000

5
1500000

1000000
0

500000

0 -5

%YoY Agency/Trust Held Agency/Trust

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Public Held Treasury Debt
Annual Fiscal New Issuance vs Outstandings

10000000 2500000

9000000

2000000
8000000

7000000

Public New Issuance $ Millions

Public Held Debt $ Millions

1500000

6000000

5000000 1000000

4000000

500000
3000000

2000000
0

1000000

0 -500000

$12mo Held Public Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Public Held Treasury Debt
% YoY Change Outstandings

10000000 40

9000000 35

8000000 30

7000000 25
Public Held Debt $ Millions

Public Held Debt % YoY

6000000 20

5000000 15

4000000 10

3000000 5

2000000 0

1000000 -5

0 -10

%YoY Held Public Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 Composition of US Government Treasury Debt
% YoY Change Outstandings by Holder

35

30

25

20
Debt % YoY

15

10

-5

-10

%YoY Held Public %YoY Agency/Trust %YoY Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Gross Interest Cost
Annual Fiscal Interest Cost vs Debt Outstandings

16000000 500000

450000
14000000

400000
12000000
350000

Gross Interest $ Millions

Gross Debt $ Millions

10000000
300000

8000000 250000

200000
6000000

150000
4000000
100000

2000000
50000

0 0

Gross Interest Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Gross Interest Cost
% Change YoY Annual Fiscal Interest Cost vs Debt Outstandings

16000000 40

14000000
30

12000000

20

Gross Interest % YoY

Gross Debt $ Millions

10000000

8000000 10

6000000
0

4000000

-10
2000000

0 -20

%YoY Gross Interest Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Gross Interest Cost
Determinants of Interest Costs on Debt Outstanding

16000000 12.00

Yrs to Maturity Public Held Debt / % Gross Interest Rate %

14000000
10.00

12000000

8.00
Gross Debt $ Millions

10000000

8000000 6.00

6000000
4.00

4000000

2.00
2000000

0 0.00

Gross Interest Rate % Average Yrs to Maturity Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Gross Interest Cost
Determinants of Interest Costs on Debt Outstanding

25 12.00

Yrs to Maturity Public Held Debt / % Gross Interest Rate %

10.00
20

8.00
Gross Debt % YoY

15

6.00

10

4.00

5
2.00

0 0.00

Gross Interest Rate % Average Yrs to Maturity %YoY Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Gross Interest Cost
Annual Fiscal Interest Cost Rate vs Debt Outstandings

16000000 12.00

14000000
10.00

12000000

8.00

Gross Interest Rate %

Gross Debt $ Millions

10000000

8000000 6.00

6000000
4.00

4000000

2.00
2000000

0 0.00

Gross Interest Rate % Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Gross Interest Cost
Annual Fiscal Interest Cost Rate vs % YoY Change Debt Outstandings

25 12.00

10.00
20

8.00

Gross Interest Rate %

Gross Debt % YoY

15

6.00

10

4.00

5
2.00

0 0.00

Gross Interest Rate % %YoY Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Public Held Treasury Debt
Average Years to Maturity vs Debt Outstandings

10000000 10

9000000

8000000 8

7000000
Public Held Debt $ Millions

Years to Maturity
6000000 6

5000000

4000000 4

3000000

2000000 2

1000000

0 0

Average Yrs to Maturity Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Public Held Treasury Debt
Average Years to Maturity vs % YoY Change Debt Outstandings

35 10

30

8
25

20
Public Held Debt % YoY

Years to Maturity
6
15

10
4

0
2

-5

-10 0

Average Yrs to Maturity %YoY Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Coverage Ratios
Receipts to Outlays

4000000 1.20

3500000
1.00

3000000

0.80

Ratio Receipts to Outlays

2500000
Outlays $ Millions

2000000 0.60

1500000
0.40

1000000

0.20
500000

0 0.00

Receipts to Outlays Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Coverage Ratios
Receipts to Outlays

25 1.20

20 1.00

15 0.80

Ratio Receipts to Outlays

Outlays % YoY

10 0.60

5 0.40

0 0.20

-5 0.00

Receipts to Outlays %YoY Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Coverage Ratios
Gross Treasury Debt to Receipts

16000000 7.00

14000000
6.00

12000000
5.00

Ratio Gross Debt to Receipts

Gross Debt $ Millions

10000000
4.00

8000000

3.00
6000000

2.00
4000000

1.00
2000000

0 0.00

Gross Debt to Receipts Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Coverage Ratios
Gross Treasury Debt to Receipts

25 7.00

6.00
20

5.00

Ratio Gross Debt to Receipts

Gross Debt % YoY

15
4.00

3.00
10

2.00

5
1.00

0 0.00

Gross Debt to Receipts %YoY Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Coverage Ratios
Receipts to Gross Interest Cost

500000 12.00

450000

10.00
400000

Ratio Receipts to Gross Interest

350000
Gross Interest Cost $ Millions

8.00

300000

250000 6.00

200000

4.00
150000

100000
2.00

50000

0 0.00

Receipts to Gross Interest Gross Interest

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Coverage Ratios
Receipts to Gross Interest Cost

35 12.00

30

25 10.00

20

Ratio Receipts to Gross Interest

Gross Interest Cost % YoY

8.00
15

10
6.00
5

0
4.00
-5

-10 2.00

-15

-20 0.00

Receipts to Gross Interest %YoY Gross Interest

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Size of Government
Outlays to GDP

4000000 30

3500000
25

3000000

20
2500000

% Outlays to GDP
Outlays $ Millions

2000000 15

1500000
10

1000000

5
500000

0 0

% Outlays to GDP Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Size of Government
Outlays to GDP

25 30

20 25

15 20

% Outlays to GDP
Outlays % YoY

10 15

5 10

0 5

-5 0

% Outlays to GDP %YoY Outlays

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Size of Government
Deficit to GDP

400000 12

10

-100000 8

6
Deficit $ Millions

% Deficit to GDP
-600000 4

-1100000 0

-2

-1600000 -4

% Deficit to GDP Deficit

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Income
Gross Debt to GDP

16000000 100

90
14000000

80
12000000
70

Gross Debt to GDP %

Gross Debt $ Millions

10000000
60

8000000 50

40
6000000

30
4000000
20

2000000
10

0 0

% Gross Debt to GDP Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Income
Gross Debt to GDP

25 100

90

20 80

70

Gross Debt to GDP %

Gross Debt % YoY

15 60

50

10 40

30

5 20

10

0 0

% Gross Debt to GDP %YoY Gross Debt

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Savings
Public Debt New Issuance to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings

2500000 250

200
2000000

Public New Issuance to Savings %

150
Public New Issuance $ Millions

1500000

100

1000000

50

500000
0

0
-50

-500000 -100

% Public NI to NPS % Public NI to GPS $12mo Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Savings
Public Debt New Issuance to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings

35 250

30
200

25

Public New Issuance to Savings %

150
Public New Issuance % YoY

20

15 100

10 50

5
0
0

-50
-5

-10 -100

% Public NI to NPS % Public NI to GPS %YoY Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Savings
Public Debt to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings

10000000 1200

9000000

1000
8000000

Public Held Debt to Savings %

7000000
Public Held Debt $ Millions

800

6000000

5000000 600

4000000

400
3000000

2000000
200

1000000

0 0

% Public Debt to NPS % Public Debt to GPS Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/

 US Government Economic Burden Ratios
Government Take of National Savings
Public Debt to Gross (GPS) and Net (NPS) Private Savings

35 1200

30
1000
25

Public Held Debt to Savings %

Public Held Debt % YoY

20 800

15
600
10

5 400

0
200
-5

-10 0

% Public Debt to NPS % Public Debt to GPS %YoY Held Public

THE CONTRARIAN TAKE @ http://blogs.forbes.com/michaelpollaro/