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This analysis was prepared by Clean Energy Project using McKinsey’s US Low Carbon Economics Tool, which is a neutral, analytic set
of interlinked models that estimates potential economic implications of various policies using assumptions defined by Clean Energy
Project. The policy scenarios, input assumptions, conclusions, recommendations and opinions are the sole responsibility of Clean Energy
Project and are not validated or endorsed by McKinsey. McKinsey takes no position on the merits of these assumptions and scenarios or
on associated policy recommendations.
More background about McKinsey's US Low Carbon Economics Tool is available here:
http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/sustainability/low_carbon_economics_tool.asp
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Developing Nevada’s Clean Energy Resources
October 2010
1. Executive summary
Nevada currently imports nearly all of its fuel for energy, whether in the form of
natural gas, coal, petroleum or electricity. However, the state has vast domestic energy
resources in the form of renewables and energy efficiency. Nevada has an opportunity
to save over $300 million dollars per year by 2025 due to decreased energy imports
and increased electricity exports if the state aggressively pursues the development of
its clean energy resources. In this scenario of clean energy export plan, Nevada could
increase its GDP by $540 million and create over 9,000 clean energy jobs directly
supporting the new clean energy infrastructure by 20251.
This report explores the path we are currently on for clean energy development in
Nevada and the opportunity in Nevada to build a stronger clean energy economy in
more detail. It presents plausible pathways to capturing the value at stake, quantifies
the impact of these pathways on Nevada ratepayers, jobs, and GDP, describes likely
barriers to achieving the opportunity, and discusses potential policy and other measures
that could help overcome these barriers.
2. The opportunity for developing clean energy in Nevada
Nevada imports nearly all of the fuel required to generate electricity for the state’s
consumers and businesses. In 2008, almost 90% of the electricity generated in Nevada
was from out-of-state fuel sources (Figure 1). This power was produced using $1.7
billion of imported fossil fuel: $1.3 billion of natural gas and $400 million of coal. In
addition, Nevada imported 1.2 million MWh of electricity (3.4% of its electricity,
worth approximately $60 million) from out-of-state generators.
1 This accounts for green jobs associated with building and operating renewable energy facilities and transmission lines, and retrofitting buildings. Does not account for job losses in other industries
3
Figure 1: 2008 generation mix and costs
However, Nevada has large and high-quality renewable energy resources and significant energy efficiency potential. The combination of
energy efficiency and renewable power could reduce Nevada’s energy imports, increase its exports of electrical power and stimulate a
local clean energy industry.
Renewables
Nevada has among the best geothermal resources in the country. Geothermal energy could theoretically supply between 1,500 and 3,000
MW of baseload generation capacity (10 – 20 million MWh of energy per year, or 30-60% of Nevada’s total demand), a potential second
only to California. Much of the state, particularly the north, contains known or potential geothermal resources (Figure 2). In addition,
geothermal power generation has an established track record and a potential that will continue to grow as exploration technologies are
refined and costs drop.
4
Figure 2: Nevada has among the best geothermal resources in the US
Nevada also contains world-class solar resources (Figures 3 and 4). Solar energy, including both solar thermal and utility-scale
photovoltaic generating plants, could theoretically provide orders-of-magnitude more electricity than needed to meet Nevada’s peak
demand. The limiting factors for solar generation are therefore not the size of the renewable resource, but siting, transmission and
economic constraints.
5
Figure 3: Nevada has among the best solar PV resources in the US
6
Figure 4: Nevada has among the best solar thermal resources in the US
Other renewable resources in Nevada include wind, distributed generation (mostly solar photovoltaic) and solar hot water heaters. Nevada
has between 15,000 and 20,000 MW of wind energy potential. There is several hundred MW of distributed solar PV potential on homes
and commercial buildings, which could provide hundreds of thousands of MWh of energy per year (a few percent of total demand).
Finally, solar hot water heaters could reduce electricity demand by displacing electric water heaters, potentially saving 1.2 – 1.5 million
MWh (3-4% of total demand) per year (and removing the need for ~350 MW of generating capacity).2
Energy efficiency
A report published in 2009 by McKinsey & Company examined in detail the potential for greater efficiency in non-transportation uses of
energy, including the effect of measures such as retrofitting homes, installing more efficient appliances and lighting and constructing
more energy-efficient new buildings.3 It found that the U.S. could save up to 23 percent of projected energy demand in the residential,
commercial and industrial sectors. These measures, if put in place, would cost $520 million but save a total of $1.2 trillion in energy costs.
4 K. Gillingham, et. al., “Energy Efficiency Policies: A Retrospective Examination”, Annual Review of Environmental Resources, 2006.
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Figure 5: Nevada’s economic energy efficiency potential in 2025 is 26% of
stationary energy consumption Residential
Nevada stationary end-use energy demand, 2025 Commercial
Trillion BTU
Industrial
593
491 -26%
208
440
178
148 -29%
175
132
120 -31%
181 209
172 -18%
Typically, energy efficiency refers to demand-side savings, but there may also be a significant opportunity on the supply side. Various
estimates suggest 2% to 6% savings from such measures as transmission loss reduction and voltage variation reduction,5 resulting in 0.88-
2.4 million MWh of energy savings.
1,140
830
900 610
520
600
410
390
20
15
5
100 MW Solar PV 100 MW Geothermal 100 MW Wind 500 KV, 200 mile
transmission line
(600 MW capacity)
6 We conservatively assume that payments for renewables ultimately flow mainly to non-resident investors, so there are no follow on benefits from this spend within Nevada
7 Solar manufacturing industry financials and employment data
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Energy efficiency
The economic impacts of energy efficiency are broadly similar to those of renewables, in that that both types of measures require upfront
capital expenditures and result in reductions in fossil fuel expenditures. In addition to the above benefits, cost effective energy efficiency
programs will: (1) significantly reduce electricity bills, stimulating the local economy and making business more competitive, and (2)
have a positive impact on jobs, as they tend to shift spending away from capital intensive energy industries and toward labor intensive
service industries (e.g., duct sealing, home retrofitting, etc).
Figure 7 illustrates the level of short-term job creation expected from a 1-year home retrofit program with $60 million in subsidies, which
could potentially enable 5% of Nevada’s homes to have energy efficiency retrofits, could create 1,680 jobs of various types during the
program. Longer term effects not captured in this figure include the impact of accompanying tax increases and energy bill reductions.
Other
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Construction
32
Transportation, material moving 6
10
Management, business, financial 18
11
Sales, office, administrative
Manufacturing
Savings from energy efficiency measures can be large. For example, a 10% reduction8 in energy use in residential and commercial
buildings in Nevada due to energy efficiency would save $350 million per year in energy costs (electricity, gas and other fuels). An
optimized energy efficiency program could obtain this level of savings for $1.6 billion in upfront investment, paying for itself in less than
5 years.
8 This level of reduction would be equivalent to 27% capture of the economic potential identified in the 2009 McKinsey report “Unlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy”, which is toward
the top end of the range (10-30%) of EE program historical performance and of expert estimates
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4. Exporting plan for Nevada
Scenario 1: BAU
Scenario 2: Export
Transmission ▪ In addition, add ~400 miles of 350 MW transmission from 2015-2025 for
renewables connection to grid, transmission to load centers, and export
To understand the overall economic implications for Nevada, we modeled two clean energy and EE development scenarios (Figure 8). In
the first scenario (“BAU”), Nevada develops renewable resources and achieves energy efficiency sufficient to meet its RPS target. In the
second scenario (“Export”), Nevada achieves additional demand reduction through energy efficiency, develops slightly more renewable
energy for domestic consumption, and develops a significant amount of renewable resources for export. Figure 9 shows the electrical
energy produced from various sources in Nevada with the corresponding generation capacities installed, and Figure 10 breaks down the
same information for renewable energy.9 Energy efficiency measures could significantly reduce electricity consumption, with savings
coming from residential and commercial buildings and industry (Figure 11).
9 Different proportions of energy and capacity are due to differences in the capacity factors of different technologies
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Renewables for export
Figure 9: Export scenario has lower demand,
Renewables
more renewables, and less gas Hydro
Gas
Coal
43 45
Generation mix 41 3
39 7
TWh 37 37 3 9
3 4 3 3 4
3 3 3 3 3
23 23 27 23 23 24 In order to deploy
9 9 7 9 9 7
the renewable
2010 2015 2025 2010 2015 2025 resources for each
Capacity
10.0
11.0 10.6
11.4
0.8
of the scenarios,
GW 9.6 1.2 9.6 0.6
0.8
0.4
0.8
0.8 0.8
0.8
0.4
0.8
0.8 1.8
0.8
additional
transmission lines
7.0 7.0 7.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 and upgrades to
1.3 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.0
existing lines will
2010 2015 2025 2010 2015 2025 have to be
* Small hydro is included in total hydro, not renewables completed.
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Figure 11: Growth rate of electricity demand can be reduced, with greatest
savings in commercial sector
BAU - No action
Total electricity demand Electricity savings due to energy efficiency
TWh BAU - Nevada RPS TWh
Export scenario
10% EERS 4.3
45 0.3 Industrial
40
35
30 2.5 Commercial
25
20
1.3
15
0.3
10
0.6 1.4 Residential
5
0.4
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2015 2025
In order to deploy the renewable resources for each of the scenarios, additional transmission lines and upgrades to existing lines will have
to be completed. In addition to the assumed completion of the initial portion of the ONLine transmission project (A 600 MW, 500 kV line
connecting the northern and southern transmission grids for the first time), we modeled a deployment of 750 miles of average 500 MW
capacity, at a cost of $1.3 billion (for BAU) and an additional 400 miles of average 350 MW capacity, at an additional cost of $0.7 billion
(for the export scenario). The transmission construction requirements were based on a recent study examining potential renewable
resource zones and transmission requirements throughout Nevada (Figure 12).10 The bulk of the new transmission would be along the
western border, connecting solar (in the south) and geothermal resources both to Nevada’s grid and to California, and in the east central
portion of the state, connecting geothermal and wind resources to the Nevada grid.
SOURCE: 2009 Status of Energy in Nevada Report to Governor Gibbons and Legislature
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Jobs and GDP
The total impact on Nevada’s economy in terms of jobs and GDP is positive in both scenarios in most years (Figure 14). This is because
the negative impact of higher prices is more than offset by the positive impact of clean energy investment and the savings due to energy
efficiency, including increased electricity exports and reduced natural gas imports (Figure 15). The export scenario has significantly better
outcomes than BAU, especially in 2025 when there is more clean technology investment and exported power.
PRELIMINARY
Figure 13: Macroeconomic outcomes are more positive in
export scenario BAU
Export
Additional effects
Manufacturing (only from the export scenario)
If half of the energy exported in the export scenario in 2025 were produced from solar PV, and Nevada were to establish the local
manufacturing capacity to supply those PV installations, an additional 1,200 to 1,300 jobs could be created.
Local taxes
Renewable installations contribute significant taxes and other revenue (e.g., land leases) to local communities. Since most renewable
power plants would be located in rural areas, these taxes could have a significant positive impact on rural communities. In the export
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scenario, roughly $25 million in local taxes and assessments would be collected from renewable power installations. This would enhance
the services provided by local governments and create 300-400 rural jobs. Taxes on transmission lines would be significant too.
* At CA wholesale price
Other issues
Obtaining rights-of-way along the entire route of a transmission corridor can be difficult and Another would be for the
involves working with a variety of private and public (federal, local, and state) entities, and often state and/or federal
requires extensive environmental impact study and mitigation. In Nevada specifically, military government to assume a
airspace constraints often affect transmission rights of way. A key enabler of transmission
expansion will be close collaboration between all of the stakeholders involved, likely with more portion of these risks.
active regional and Federal involvement. However, Nevada is positioned favorably compared to For example, the federal
California from a siting and permitting perspective,11 and this fact could give Nevada an government has recently
advantage when competing with California for renewables projects. agreed to help fund the
Barriers to renewables development exploration required for
Development risks geothermal projects
developed on some
Risks include regulatory risks associated with siting and permitting, the exploration risks
federally owned lands.
associated with geothermal energy, and the risk that transmission cannot be obtained. Several
11 This is because of several factors, including a lower population density, a large area of Federally owned and managed land, and a more streamlined regulatory process
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ways to mitigate these risks exist. One would be for utilities to take a more active role in renewables development as opposed to simply
signing PPAs, for example by taking an ownership stake in projects, forming joint ventures, or forming a subsidiary devoted to
renewables development. Another would be for the state and/or federal government to assume a portion of these risks. For example, the
federal government has recently agreed to help fund the exploration required for geothermal projects developed on some federally owned
lands. Finally, it will be important for all stakeholders (not just developers) to work with regulatory and government agencies to
streamline the siting and permitting process and address issues such as military airspace constraints (for wind farms and solar power
tower plants), environmental impact, and impact on protected lands such as national monuments. Other ways to address permitting issues
include developing brown field sites for utility-scale projects, for example retired coal plants, and emphasizing distributed generation and
solar water heating, which are typically deployed on or above existing commercial and residential structures.
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Figure 16: Energy efficiency opportunity in the residential sector
Energy savings from energy efficiency, 2025
TBTU Retrofit
Measures to enable capture of New buildings
opportunity Heavy appliances
Consumer electronics
Retrofit ▪ Subsidies and/or financing BAU
▪ Require retrofit at point of sale or 100%=13
Lighting
upgrade
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Figure 17: Energy efficiency opportunity in the commercial sector
Energy savings from energy efficiency, 2025
TBTU Retrofit
Measures to enable capture of New buildings
opportunity Heavy appliances
Consumer electronics
Retrofit ▪ Subsidies and/or financing BAU
▪ Require retrofit at point of sale or 100%=12
Lighting
upgrade
Despite the difficulty in capturing the full potential, many policy, market and other mechanisms exist and can be deployed to address the
barriers (Figures 16 and 17) and capture part of the potential. Effective measures include an overall energy efficiency target coupled with
removing disincentives (rate decoupling) or adding incentives (rate of return on EE investment, sharing benefit of EE with customers) for
the utility, information and education, incentives and financing, codes and standards and third-party involvement (in which a third party,
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for example a utility, actually carries out the energy efficiency upgrade). The most effective capture of the energy efficiency opportunity
occurs when multiple mechanisms are deployed in a coordinated fashion.
Nevada has already put in place several mechanisms to increase energy efficiency. In addition to 25% of the RPS able to be met by
energy efficiency, the legislature has recently enacted the following measures:
1. Property tax abatement for commercial LEED certified buildings. This program has been extremely successful, including
adoption by one of the largest developments in the world, the $7B MGM CityCenter.
2. A stringent lighting standard, requiring fixed lighting to have a light output of 25 lm/watt by Jan 1, 2012.
3. Lost revenue recovery and annual EE investment expense recovery for the utility.
In addition, Nevada has the highest adoption of ENERGY STAR certified homes in the country, with 70% of new homes in Southern
Nevada complying with the standard.12
Additional policy and incentive mechanisms which could help drive the adoption of energy efficiency, some of which are being actively
considered, are:
1. Broader appliance standards (currently under consideration for TVs and portable light fixtures). Heavy appliances and
consumer/office electronics account for 30% of the potential energy savings, and adopting and strictly enforcing cost-effective
standards for all of these devices could dramatically increase the achieved energy savings, potentially doubling it from 12 TBTU to
24 TBTU in 2025 and saving an additional $180 million.
2. Innovative retrofit financing similar to a PACE program. Innovative financing could increase the penetration of retrofits from
less than 30% to almost 50%, savings an additional 7 TBTU of energy and $100 million. To push retrofit penetration even higher,
mandates and standards for efficiency upgrades at point of sale or whenever a major renovation occurs should be put in place.
3. A separate EERS (energy efficiency resource standard) to drive utility DSM and associated positive incentives for the utility. A
well enforced and incentivized EERS will typically achieve its mandated targets.
4. Adoption and strict enforcement of the latest building code standards, which increasingly include efficiency components. The
energy savings from new buildings could be doubled, from 6 TBTU to 12 TBTU in 2025, saving an additional $90 million.
5. Efficiency retrofits offered to all customers in a service territory, performed by an external party and paid for by the government
or utility have the highest penetration rate. Although this is a relatively expensive option, it has a high payback.
12 Expert interviews
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6. Energy efficiency credits (EECs) and markets can help stimulate adoption of energy efficiency measures. A market for
efficiency could take several forms, with the central objective that market participants compete for savings to meet an energy
efficiency target. This approach is already in place in two forward-capacity markets (New England and Pennsylvania-New Jersey-
Maryland power markets). Energy efficiency bids captured 26% of the 2,550 MW of new and existing demand resource capacity
in the ISO New England’s February 2008 auction.
7. A shared savings structure such that the utility could gain some of the value from installing energy efficiency systems.
6. Conclusion
Nevada has extensive renewable energy and energy efficiency resources and has set out on a successful path toward a clean energy
economy. By meeting the current laws for the Renewable Portfolio Standard, Nevada will create an additional 1,800 jobs by 2012. If
Nevada were to be even more ambitious in developing a clean energy future and meet the obtainable goal of 3,000 GWh for export
outside of Nevada, 9,000 clean energy jobs directly supporting the new clean energy infrastructure would be created by 2025. The total
impact on Nevada’s economy in 2025 would be an increase in GDP of $540 million. Although challenges and barriers exist to achieving
these outcomes, there are multiple ways of addressing these barriers and Nevada is already on the path to doing so.
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