Vietnam’ss Party Congress

Vietnam Party Congress

Carl Thayer
U.S.‐ASEAN
U.S. ASEAN Business Council
Business Council
March 21, 2011
 4 Major Party Documents
4 Major Party Documents
• Political
Political Report (Bao
Report (Bao Cao Chinh
Cao Chinh Tri)
• Political Platform on Building the Nation 
During the Transitional Period to Socialism
During the Transitional Period to Socialism 
(Cuong linh xay dung dat nuoc trong thoi ky
qua do len Chu nghia xa hoi).
• Party Statutes (Dieu Le Dang) 
• Strategy for Socio
Strategy for Socio‐Economic
Economic Development, 
Development,
2011‐2020 (Chien Luoc Phat Trien Kinh‐Te‐Xa
Hoi 2011‐2020).
 Central Committee
Central Committee
• New
New Central Committee of 175 full and 25 
Central Committee of 175 full and 25
alternate members – largest in history
• Delegates given more names than positions to 
Delegates given more names than positions to
be filled including names of those who were 
nominated at the congress
nominated at the congress
• Orderly generational change 58% of members 
were incumbents
i b
• Sectoral representation shifted to provincials
Sectoral Composition of the VCP 
l
Central Committee 2011
11% 9%

Senior Party

Central Party‐
State
38% Secondary/Provin
42%
cial
Armed Forces
 Sectoral Interests
• Foreign Affairs 
Foreign Affairs – 3 deputy ministers
3 deputy ministers
• Public Security – 2 members on Politburo
• Military –
ili constant
• Alternates promoted to full member
• Heads of educational institution
• Central Party Business Sector
Central Party Business Sector
• Princelings
 Politburo
• Outgoing
Outgoing recommendation Politburo of 17 
recommendation Politburo of 17
members only 14 elected
• 9 incumbents (4 with fixed posts and 5 left for 
9 incumbents (4 with fixed posts and 5 left for
five key leadership positions 1 term required])
• 5 new members including first woman ethnic 
5 b i l di fi h i
minority
• Nguyen Phu Trong elected party Secretary 
General (age exemption)
 Losers
• Politburo
Politburo member Ho Duc
member Ho Duc Viet
• Ten ministers (7 of whom received 
endorsement)
– MOFA, NRE, Health, HA, State Inspection, 
Transportation, 
Transportation
• Le Doan Hop Minister of Information and 
C
Communications (Nghe
i ti (N h An faction)
A f ti )
 Party –v‐
Party  v State
• Leadership
Leadership selection of state leaders a two 
selection of state leaders a two
step process
Step 2: May 22nd National Assembly elections 
• Step 2: May 22 National Assembly elections
and election by deputies
• State President
S P id
• Prime Minister
• Chair National Assembly Standing Committee
 New Cabinet
New Cabinet
• There
There were 22 Ministers on outgoing VCP 
were 22 Ministers on outgoing VCP
Central Committee
• 12 re‐elected
12 re elected
• 10 failed to gain re‐election
• Notably Foreign Minister Pham Gia Khiem
• 3 of 5 DPMs have retired or moved on
• New PM will have chance to reshape 
government leadership team
government leadership team
 Party State
Party‐State
• Era
Era of party strong man long over
of party strong man long over
• Institutional interests mitigate against strong 
party leader
party leader
• State (Cabinet and Office of Prime Minister) 
h
has grown more powerful than party
f l h
• Possible friction between prime minister and 
key party elite and state president
 Conclusion
• Delegates
Delegates and new Central Committee more 
and new Central Committee more
assertive
• Last two CCs held fifteen plenary sessions
Last two CCs held fifteen plenary sessions
• System of equilibrium through checks and 
b l
balances
• Personality and policy differences will persist
– Focus on nominations for new Cabinet
Vietnam’ss Party Congress
Vietnam Party Congress

Carl Thayer
U.S.‐ASEAN
U.S. ASEAN Business Council
Business Council
March 21, 2011
 Lao PM’ss Resignation
Lao PM
• December
December 2010 PM 
2010 PM
Bouasone resigns
• Gives family reasons
y
• Speculation caught up 
in pro‐China and pro0‐
p p
Hanoi political intrigues
• Replaced by Thongsing
Thammavong
Bouasone Bouphavanh