Intro to IndiaPopulation.

xls
This workbook is designed to illustrate three common methods of forecasting via extrapolation with a real data set
consisting of population estimates for the country of India.

The Extrapolation worksheet contains estimates from the US Census Bureau for
India's population at mid-year over the past fifty years and forecasts for the next
fifty years.
The three forecasting methods are:

(1) Linear trend forecast

(2) Logarithmic trend forecast
(3) Autoregressive forecast

Reference Point: 1999

The sheet illustrates both ex post forecasts, in which data for the period 1950-
1990 is used to forecast future population in the period 1991-1999, and ex ante
forecasts in which data from 1950 to 1990 is used to forecast population for the
period 2000-2050.

Data Sources:
US Census
Penn World Tables
n with a real data set
 Population Linear Log Exp(Log
Year t (millions) Pop (t-1) Ln(Pop) Trend Trend Trend)
1950 0 370 5.91 332 5.89 363
1951 1 376 370 5.93 344 5.92 371
1952 2 383 376 5.95 356 5.94 379
1953 3 390 383 5.97 368 5.96 387
1954 4 397 390 5.98 380 5.98 395
1955 5 404 397 6.00 392 6.00 404
1956 6 412 404 6.02 405 6.02 413
1957 7 420 412 6.04 417 6.04 422
1958 8 428 420 6.06 429 6.07 431
1959 9 437 428 6.08 441 6.09 440 Linear Trend Line for India's Popul
1960 10 446 437 6.10 453 6.11 449 Period, 1950-1990
1961 11 455 446 6.12 465 6.13 459
900
1962 12 464 455 6.14 477 6.15 469
850
1963 13 474 464 6.16 489 6.17 479
800
1964 14 485 474 6.18 502 6.19 490 750
1965 15 496 485 6.21 514 6.21 500 700

Population (millions)
1966 16 507 496 6.23 526 6.24 511 650
1967 17 519 507 6.25 538 6.26 522 600
1968 18 530 519 6.27 550 6.28 533 550
1969 19 543 530 6.30 562 6.30 545 500
1970 20 555 543 6.32 574 6.32 556 450
1971 21 568 555 6.34 586 6.34 568 400
1972 22 581 568 6.37 599 6.36 581 350
300
1973 23 595 581 6.39 611 6.39 593
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975
1974 24 608 595 6.41 623 6.41 606
1975 25 622 608 6.43 635 6.43 619 Year

1976 26 636 622 6.45 647 6.45 632

1977 27 649 636 6.48 659 6.47 646 Ln Population and Trend Line, Estim

1978 28 663 649 6.50 671 6.49 660 7.00

1979 29 676 663 6.52 684 6.51 674
6.80
1980 30 690 676 6.54 696 6.53 689
1981 31 705 690 6.56 708 6.56 704 6.60
1982 32 720 705 6.58 720 6.58 719
6.40
1983 33 736 720 6.60 732 6.60 734
Ln Population

1984 34 752 736 6.62 744 6.62 750 6.20

1985 35 768 752 6.64 756 6.64 766
1986 36 784 768 6.66 768 6.66 783 6.00

1987 37 801 784 6.69 781 6.68 800 5.80

1988 38 817 801 6.71 793 6.71 817
1989 39 834 817 6.73 805 6.73 835 5.60
1990 40 851 834 6.75 817 6.75 853 5.40
1991 41 867 851 6.76 829 6.77 871 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970
1992 42 883 867 6.78 841 6.79 890 Year
 5.60

5.40
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970

Year
1993 43 899 883 6.80 853 6.81 909
1994 44 916 899 6.82 865 6.83 929
1995 45 932 916 6.84 878 6.85 949 Linear and Exponential Tre
1996 46 949 932 6.86 890 6.88 969 Data, Estimation Period, 19
1997 47 965 949 6.87 902 6.90 990 900
1998 48 982 965 6.89 914 6.92 1011 850
1999 49 998 982 6.91 926 6.94 1033 800
750

Population (millions)
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
1950 1955 1960 1965
 Linear Trend
LinSlope LinInt
Estimate 12.13 331.74
SE 0.24 5.47
LnTrend
LnSlope LnInt
Estimate 0.0213 5.895
SE 0.0001 0.002

Linear Trend Line for India's Population, Actual Data, Estimation

Period, 1950-1990

900
850
800
750
700
Population (millions)

650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Year

Ln Population and Trend Line, Estimation Period, 1950-1990

7.00

6.80

6.60

6.40
Ln Population

6.20

6.00

5.80

5.60

5.40
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Year
 5.60

5.40
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Year

Linear and Exponential Trend Lines for India's Population, Actual

Data, Estimation Period, 1950-1990

900
850
800
750
Population (millions)

700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
851
851
851
851
851
851
851

0
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900

800

700

600

500

400

300
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965
900

800

700

600

500

400

300
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Estimation Ex Post Forecast Ex Ante
Period Forecast

Population Linear Log Exp(Log Autoreg

Year t (millions) Pop (t-1) Ln(Pop) Trend Trend Trend) Forecast
1950 0 370 5.91 332 5.89 363
1951 1 376 370 5.93 344 5.92 371
1952 2 383 376 5.95 356 5.94 379
1953 3 390 383 5.97 368 5.96 387
1954 4 397 390 5.98 380 5.98 395
1955 5 404 397 6.00 392 6.00 404
1956 6 412 404 6.02 405 6.02 413
1957 7 420 412 6.04 417 6.04 422
1958 8 428 420 6.06 429 6.07 431
1959 9 437 428 6.08 441 6.09 440
1960 10 446 437 6.10 453 6.11 449
1961 11 455 446 6.12 465 6.13 459
1962 12 464 455 6.14 477 6.15 469
1963 13 474 464 6.16 489 6.17 479
1964 14 485 474 6.18 502 6.19 490
1965 15 496 485 6.21 514 6.21 500
1966 16 507 496 6.23 526 6.24 511
1967 17 519 507 6.25 538 6.26 522
1968 18 530 519 6.27 550 6.28 533
1969 19 543 530 6.30 562 6.30 545
1970 20 555 543 6.32 574 6.32 556
1971 21 568 555 6.34 586 6.34 568
1972 22 581 568 6.37 599 6.36 581
1973 23 595 581 6.39 611 6.39 593
1974 24 608 595 6.41 623 6.41 606
1975 25 622 608 6.43 635 6.43 619
1976 26 636 622 6.45 647 6.45 632
1977 27 649 636 6.48 659 6.47 646
1978 28 663 649 6.50 671 6.49 660
1979 29 676 663 6.52 684 6.51 674
1980 30 690 676 6.54 696 6.53 689
1981 31 705 690 6.56 708 6.56 704
1982 32 720 705 6.58 720 6.58 719
1983 33 736 720 6.60 732 6.60 734
1984 34 752 736 6.62 744 6.62 750
1985 35 768 752 6.64 756 6.64 766
1986 36 784 768 6.66 768 6.66 783
1987 37 801 784 6.69 781 6.68 800
1988 38 817 801 6.71 793 6.71 817
1989 39 834 817 6.73 805 6.73 835
1990 40 851 834 6.75 817 6.75 853
 1991 41 867 851 6.76 829 6.77 871 869
1992 42 883 867 6.78 841 6.79 890 887
1993 43 899 883 6.80 853 6.81 909 906
1994 44 916 899 6.82 865 6.83 929 925
1995 45 932 916 6.84 878 6.85 949 945
1996 46 949 932 6.86 890 6.88 969 965
1997 47 965 949 6.87 902 6.90 990 985
1998 48 982 965 6.89 914 6.92 1011 1006
1999 49 998 982 6.91 926 6.94 1033 1028
2000 50 938 6.96 1055 1050
2001 51 950 6.98 1078 1072
2002 52 963 7.00 1101 1095
2003Two53 Ex Post Forecasts
975 7.03Four Forecasts
1125 of India's
1118
Population
2004 for India's
54 Population versus Actual Population: The 987 35007.05 1149 1142
1990s
2005 55 999 7.07 1174 1166
1100
3000
2006 56 1011 7.09 1200 1191
2007 57
1050 1023 2500
7.11 1225 1216
2008 58 1035 7.13 1252 1242
2009 59 Population (millions)
1047
1000 20007.15 1279 1268
Population (millions)

2010 60 1060 7.18 1306 1295

950 1500
2011 61 1072 7.20 1335 1323
2012 62 1084 1000
7.22 1363 1351
900
2013 63 1096 7.24 1393 1380
2014
850
64 1108 5007.26 1423 1409
2015 65 1120 7.28 1454 1439
0
2016
800 66 1132 7.30 1485 1469
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2017 671992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
1990 1991 1144 7.32 1517 1501
Year
2018 68 Year 1157 7.35 1550 1532
2019 69 1169 7.37 1583 1565
Linear and Exponential
2020 70 Trend Lines for India's Population with US 1181 7.39 1617 1598
Census Forecast
2021 71 1193 7.41 1652 1632
2600
2022 72 1205 7.43 1688 1667
2400
2023 73 1217 7.45 1724 1702
2200
2024 74 1229 7.47 1761 1738
2000
2025 75 1242 7.50 1799 1775
1800
Population (1000s)

2026 76 1254 7.52 1838 1813

1600
2027 77 1266 7.54 1878 1852
1400
2028 78 1278 7.56 1918 1891
1200
2029 79 1290 7.58 1960 1931
1000 Linear Trend Forecast with Excel's Add Trendline
2030 80 1302 7.60 2002 1972
800 1200
2031 81 1314 7.62 2045 2014
600
400 1000
200
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
800
Year
000s)
Population (
1400
1200
1000 Linear Trend Forecast with Excel's Add Trendline
800 1200
600
2032 82 1326 7.64 2089 2057
400
2033 83 1339 1000
7.67 2134 2101
200
20341990 842000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1351 7.69 2180 2145
2035 85 Year
1363 7.71
800 2227 2191

Population (1000s)
2036 86 1375 7.73 2275 2237
2037 87 1387 7.75
600 2325 2285
2038 88 1399 7.77 2375 2334
2039 89 1411 7.79
400 2426 2383
2040 90 1423 7.82 2478 2434
2041 91 1436 7.84
200
2532 2485
2042 92 1448 7.86 2586 2538
2043 93 1460 7.88 2642 2592
0
2044 94 1472 7.90 1940 2699
1950 1960 2647
1970 1980 1990 2000 2
2045 95 1484 7.92 2757 2704Year
2046 96 1496 7.94 2817 2761
2047 97 1508 7.96 2878 2820
2048 98 1521 7.99 2940 2880
2049 99 1533 8.01 3003 2941
2050 100 1545 8.03 3068 3003
US
Census
Forecast

Linear Trend with t Linear Trend with Year

 LinSlope LinInt LinSlope
Estimate 12.13 331.74 Estimate 12.13
SE 0.24 5.47 SE 0.24
LnTrend
LnSlope LnInt
Estimate 0.0213 5.895
SE 0.0001 0.002
Autoregressive Model
AutoSlope AutoInt
1014 Estimate 1.0212 0.0000
1030 SE 0.0002062971 #N/A
1046
of India's Population 1062
1077
1093
1108
1123
1138
1153
1168
1183
1198
1213
1227
1242
1256
10 2020 2030 2040 2050
1270
Year
1284
1298
1312
1325
1339
1352
1365
1377
1390
1402
1414
1426
d Forecast with Excel's Add Trendline
1437
1448
d Forecast with Excel's Add Trendline

1459
1470
1481
1491
1502
1511
1521
1531
1540
1549
1558
1566
1960 1575
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year 1583
1591
1598
1606
1613
1620
rend with Year
LinInt 851
-23323.00 851
463.66 851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
851
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851
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851
851
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851
851
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851
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851
851
851
Population (millions)

900

800

700

600

500

400

300
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
 Ln Population and Trend Line, Estima
Linear and Exponential Trend Lines for India's Population, Actual
Data, Estimation Period, 1950-1990 7.00

900
6.80
850

800 6.60
750
6.40

Ln Population
700
Population (millions)

650 6.20
600
6.00
550

500 5.80
450

400 5.60

350
5.40
300 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Year
Year

Ln Ln Trend Exp(Ln Residual Lagged

Year Population Population Line Trend) Ln Residual
1950 370 5.91 5.89 363 0.02
1951 376 5.93 5.92 371 0.01 0.02
1952 383 5.95 5.94 379 0.01 0.01
1953 390 5.97 5.96 387 0.01 0.01
1954 397 5.98 5.98 395 0.00 0.01
1955 404 6.00 6.00 404 0.00 0.00
1956 412 6.02 6.02 413 0.00 0.00
1957 420 6.04 6.04 422 0.00 0.00
1958 428 6.06 6.07 431 -0.01 0.00
1959 437 6.08 6.09 440 -0.01 -0.01
1960 446 6.10 6.11 449 -0.01 -0.01
1961 455 6.12 6.13 459 -0.01 -0.01
1962 464 6.14 6.15 469 -0.01 -0.01
1963 474 6.16 6.17 479 -0.01 -0.01
1964 485 6.18 6.19 490 -0.01 -0.01
1965 496 6.21 6.21 500 -0.01 -0.01
1966 507 6.23 6.24 511 -0.01 -0.01
1967 519 6.25 6.26 522 -0.01 -0.01
1968 530 6.27 6.28 533 -0.01 -0.01
1969 543 6.30 6.30 545 0.00 -0.01
1970 555 6.32 6.32 556 0.00 0.00
1971 568 6.34 6.34 568 0.00 0.00
1972 581 6.37 6.36 581 0.00 0.00
1973 595 6.39 6.39 593 0.00 0.00
1974 608 6.41 6.41 606 0.00 0.00
1975 622 6.43 6.43 619 0.00 0.00
1976 636 6.45 6.45 632 0.01 0.00
1977 649 6.48 6.47 646 0.00 0.01
1978 663 6.50 6.49 660 0.00 0.00
1979 676 6.52 6.51 674 0.00 0.00
1980 690 6.54 6.53 689 0.00 0.00
1981 705 6.56 6.56 704 0.00 0.00
1982 720 6.58 6.58 719 0.00 0.00
1983 736 6.60 6.60 734 0.00 0.00
1984 752 6.62 6.62 750 0.00 0.00
1985 768 6.64 6.64 766 0.00 0.00
1986 784 6.66 6.66 783 0.00 0.00
1987 801 6.69 6.68 800 0.00 0.00
1988 817 6.71 6.71 817 0.00 0.00
1989 834 6.73 6.73 835 0.00 0.00
1990 851 6.75 6.75 853 0.00 0.00
ulation and Trend Line, Estimation Period, 1950-1990 Residuals versus Lagged Residuals, Ln Population
0.020

0.015

0.010

Residual (t)
0.005

0.000
-0.015 -0.010 -0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0

-0.005

-0.010

50 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 -0.015

Year Residual (t-1)

This is evidence of substantial autocorrelation.

siduals, Ln Population Trend

0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025

sidual (t-1)
Would a forecast based on more recent data do a better job? 1959-1999 Trend Lines
1950-1990 Forecasts 1959-1999 Forecasts
Year Census Forecast Linear Logarithmic Linear Logarithmic Linear
2000 1014 938 1055 992 1044 Slope Intercept
2001 1030 950 1078 1006 1066 14.29048 277.241
2002 1046 963 1101 1020 1089
2003 1062 975 1125 1035 1112
2004 1077 987 1149 1049 1136
2005 1093 999 1174Forecasts
1063 Based on 1950-1990 and 1959-1999 Data
1160
2006 1108 1011 1200 1078 1185
2007 1123 1023 1225 1092 1210
2008 1138 1035 1252
3500 1106 1236
2009 1153 1047 1279 1120 1262Forecast
Census
2010 1168 1060 1306 1135 1289
Linear
2011 1183 1072 3000
1335 1149 1316
Logarithmic
2012 1198 1084 1363 1163 1344
Linear
2013 1213 1096 1393 1178 1373
2500 Logarithmic
Population (millions)

2014 1227 1108 1423 1192 1402

2015 1242 1120 1454 1206 1432
2016 1256 1132 2000
1485 1220 1463
2017 1270 1144 1517 1235 1494
2018 1284 1157 1550 1249 1526
2019 1298 1169 1500
1583 1263 1558
2020 1312 1181 1617 1278 1591
2021 1325 1193 1652
1000 1292 1625
2022 1339 1205 1688 1306 1660
2023 1352 1217 1724 1320 1695
2024 1365 1229 500
1761 1335 1731
2025 1377 1242 1799 1349 1768
2026 1390 1254 1838 1363 1806
0
2027 1402 1266 1878 1378 1844
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2028 1414 1278 1918 1392 1884
2029 1426 1290 1960 1406 1924 Year
2030 1437 1302 2002 1420 1965
2031 1448 1314 2045 1435 2006
2032 1459 1326 2089 1449 2049
2033 1470 1339 2134 1463 2093
2034 1481 1351 2180 1478 2137
2035 1491 1363 2227 1492 2183
2036 1502 1375 2275 1506 2229
2037 1511 1387 2325 1521 2277
2038 1521 1399 2375 1535 2325
2039 1531 1411 2426 1549 2375
2040 1540 1423 2478 1563 2425
2041 1549 1436 2532 1578 2477
2042 1558 1448 2586 1592 2530
2043 1566 1460 2642 1606 2584
2044 1575 1472 2699 1621 2639
2045 1583 1484 2757 1635 2695
2046 1591 1496 2817 1649 2752
2047 1598 1508 2878 1663 2811
2048 1606 1521 2940 1678 2871
2049 1613 1533 3003 1692 2932
2050 1620 1545 3068 1706 2994
99 Trend Lines

Logarithmic
Slope Intercept
0.021072 5.897312

1959-1999 Data

2035 2040 2045 2050

Data Sources

US Census Historical Data and Projections have changed between 2002 and 2004.
Penn World Tables data conflicts with US Census

US Census 2002 retrieval

Source: http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsum?cty=in
US Census June 2004 retrieval
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsprd
Penn World Tables
Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 6.1
Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP)
October 2002.
http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt61_form.php

US Census Projections (2002)

India
Demographic Indicators: 2000 and 2025

2000 2025
Births per 1,000 population.................... 25 17
Deaths per 1,000 population................... 9 8
Rate of natural increase (percent)............ 1.6 0.9
Annual rate of growth (percent).............. 1.6 0.9
Life expectancy at birth (years).............. 62.5 70.9
Infant deaths per 1,000 live births........... 65 30
Total fertility rate (per woman).............. 3.1 2.2

Midyear Population Estimates and Average Annual Period Growth Rates:

1950 to 2050 (Population in thousands, rate in percent)

Growth
Year Population Year Population Period Rate

1950 369,880 1996 948,911 1950-1960 1.9

1960 445,857 1997 965,334 1960-1970 2.2
1970 555,043 1998 981,666 1970-1980 2.2
1980 690,462 1999 997,892 1980-1990 2.1
1990 850,558 2000 1,014,004 1990-2000 1.8

1991 866,924 2010 1,168,205 2000-2010 1.4

1992 882,946 2020 1,311,747 2010-2020 1.2
1993 899,227 2030 1,437,103 2020-2030 0.9
1994 915,777 2040 1,539,911 2030-2040 0.7
1995 932,417 2050 1,619,582 2040-2050 0.5
US Census Bureau (retrieved 2002) US Census Bureau (retrieved June 2004) Penn World Tables Data
Discrepancy
with 2002
Year Population Millions Year Population Millions Census Year Population
1950 369880000 369.9 1950 3.7E+08 369.9 0.0 1950 368633.3
1951 376222000 376.2 1951 3.76E+08 376.2 0.0 1951 374563.1
1952 382871000 382.9 1952 3.83E+08 382.9 0.0 1952 380492.9
1953 389813000 389.8 1953 3.9E+08 389.8 0.0 1953 386422.6
1954 397016000 397.0 1954 3.97E+08 397.0 0.0 1954 392352.4
1955 404478000 404.5 1955 4.04E+08 404.5 0.0 1955 398282.1
1956 412204000 412.2 1956 4.12E+08 412.2 0.0 1956 406188.5
1957 420207000 420.2 1957 4.2E+08 420.2 0.0 1957 415083.1
1958 428486000 428.5 1958 4.28E+08 428.5 0.0 1958 422989.5
1959 437037000 437.0 1959 4.37E+08 437.0 0.0 1959 431884.1
1960 445857000 445.9 1960 4.46E+08 445.9 0.0 1960 434849
1961 454946000 454.9 1961 4.55E+08 454.9 0.0 1961 444470.4
1962 464399526 464.4 1962 4.64E+08 464.4 0.0 1962 454584.9
1963 474255037 474.3 1963 4.74E+08 474.3 0.0 1963 465132.6
1964 484755786 484.8 1964 4.85E+08 484.8 0.0 1964 476060.9
1965 495736844 495.7 1965 4.96E+08 495.7 0.0 1965 487324
1966 506966654 507.0 1966 5.07E+08 507.0 0.0 1966 498883.7
1967 518502697 518.5 1967 5.19E+08 518.5 0.0 1967 510708.6
1968 530354276 530.4 1968 5.3E+08 530.4 0.0 1968 522774.6
1969 542531001 542.5 1969 5.43E+08 542.5 0.0 1969 535064.7
1970 555042800 555.0 1970 5.55E+08 555.0 0.0 1970 547569
1971 567843145 567.8 1971 5.68E+08 567.8 0.0 1971 560267.5
1972 581159491 581.2 1972 5.81E+08 580.8 0.3 1972 573129.9
1973 594732681 594.7 1973 5.94E+08 594.1 0.7 1973 586219.8
1974 608289965 608.3 1974 6.07E+08 607.3 1.0 1974 599642.7
1975 621911145 621.9 1975 6.21E+08 620.5 1.4 1975 613459
1976 635592992 635.6 1976 6.34E+08 633.8 1.8 1976 627632.4
1977 649103387 649.1 1977 6.47E+08 647.0 2.2 1977 642133.6
1978 662524021 662.5 1978 6.6E+08 660.0 2.6 1978 656940.5
1979 676277624 676.3 1979 6.73E+08 673.3 3.0 1979 672020.9
1980 690462195 690.5 1980 6.87E+08 687.0 3.4 1980 687332
1981 705308228 705.3 1981 7.01E+08 701.4 3.9 1981 702821.2
1982 720467366 720.5 1982 7.16E+08 716.1 4.4 1982 718425.6
1983 735902165 735.9 1983 7.31E+08 731.0 4.9 1983 734071.9
1984 752049159 752.0 1984 7.47E+08 746.7 5.4 1984 749676.9
1985 768318059 768.3 1985 7.62E+08 762.4 5.9 1985 765147
1986 784462082 784.5 1986 7.78E+08 778.0 6.5 1986 781893
1987 800754800 800.8 1987 7.94E+08 793.7 7.1 1987 798680
1988 817232570 817.2 1988 8.1E+08 809.6 7.7 1988 815590
1989 833833568 833.8 1989 8.26E+08 825.6 8.3 1989 832535
1990 850558120 850.6 1990 8.42E+08 841.7 8.9 1990 849515
1991 866924093 866.9 1991 8.57E+08 857.4 9.5 1991 866530.4
1992 882946109 882.9 1992 8.73E+08 873.2 9.8 1992 882300
1993 899226905 899.2 1993 8.89E+08 889.3 9.9 1993 898200
1994 915777189 915.8 1994 9.06E+08 905.6 10.1 1994 913600
1995 932416746 932.4 1995 9.22E+08 922.1 10.3 1995 929358
1996 948910783 948.9 1996 9.38E+08 938.4 10.5 1996 945611.8
1997 965334078 965.3 1997 9.55E+08 954.6 10.7 1997 962377.7
1998 981666198 981.7 1998 9.71E+08 970.8 10.9 1998 979672.9
1999 997892285 997.9 1999 9.87E+08 986.8 11.1 1999 997515.2
2000 1014003817 1014.0 2000 1E+09 1002.7 11.3 2000 1015923
2001 1029991145 1030.0 2001 1.02E+09 1018.5 11.5
2002 1045845226 1045.8 2002 1.03E+09 1034.2 11.7
2003 1061557965 1061.6 2003 1.05E+09 1049.7 11.9
2004 1077116060 1077.1 2004 1.07E+09 1065.1 12.0
2005 1092502123 1092.5 2005 1.08E+09 1080.3 12.2
2006 1107777340 1107.8 2006 1.1E+09 1095.4 12.4
2007 1123003245 1123.0 2007 1.11E+09 1110.4 12.6
2008 1138162129 1138.2 2008 1.13E+09 1125.4 12.8
2009 1153237119 1153.2 2009 1.14E+09 1140.2 13.0
2010 1168204502 1168.2 2010 1.16E+09 1155.0 13.2
2011 1183076339 1183.1 2011 1.17E+09 1169.7 13.4
2012 1197867377 1197.9 2012 1.18E+09 1184.3 13.6
2013 1212557748 1212.6 2013 1.2E+09 1198.8 13.7
2014 1227132500 1227.1 2014 1.21E+09 1213.2 13.9
2015 1241572118 1241.6 2015 1.23E+09 1227.5 14.1
2016 1255888663 1255.9 2016 1.24E+09 1241.6 14.3
2017 1270091185 1270.1 2017 1.26E+09 1255.7 14.4
2018 1284151435 1284.2 2018 1.27E+09 1269.6 14.6
2019 1298044413 1298.0 2019 1.28E+09 1283.3 14.7
2020 1311747009 1311.7 2020 1.3E+09 1296.8 14.9
2021 1325263315 1325.3 2021 1.31E+09 1310.2 15.1
2022 1338596566 1338.6 2022 1.32E+09 1323.4 15.2
2023 1351722681 1351.7 2023 1.34E+09 1336.4 15.4
2024 1364618152 1364.6 2024 1.35E+09 1349.1 15.5
2025 1377264176 1377.3 2025 1.36E+09 1361.6 15.6
2026 1389678841 1389.7 2026 1.37E+09 1373.9 15.8
2027 1401882702 1401.9 2027 1.39E+09 1386.0 15.9
2028 1413863936 1413.9 2028 1.4E+09 1397.8 16.1
2029 1425608209 1425.6 2029 1.41E+09 1409.4 16.2
2030 1437103148 1437.1 2030 1.42E+09 1420.8 16.3
2031 1448368760 1448.4 2031 1.43E+09 1431.9 16.5
 2032 1459427933 1459.4 2032 1.44E+09 1442.8 16.6
2033 1470275936 1470.3 2033 1.45E+09 1453.5 16.7
2034 1480907557 1480.9 2034 1.46E+09 1464.0 16.9
2035 1491319550 1491.3 2035 1.47E+09 1474.3 17.0
2036 1501504651 1501.5 2036 1.48E+09 1484.4 17.1
2037 1511456849 1511.5 2037 1.49E+09 1494.2 17.2
2038 1521176128 1521.2 2038 1.5E+09 1503.8 17.4
2039 1530661146 1530.7 2039 1.51E+09 1513.2 17.5
2040 1539911008 1539.9 2040 1.52E+09 1522.3 17.6
2041 1548928301 1548.9 2041 1.53E+09 1531.2 17.7
2042 1557715058 1557.7 2042 1.54E+09 1539.9 17.8
2043 1566269571 1566.3 2043 1.55E+09 1548.3 17.9
2044 1574589693 1574.6 2044 1.56E+09 1556.6 18.0
2045 1582673972 1582.7 2045 1.56E+09 1564.5 18.1
2046 1590523506 1590.5 2046 1.57E+09 1572.3 18.2
2047 1598139583 1598.1 2047 1.58E+09 1579.8 18.3
2048 1605521642 1605.5 2048 1.59E+09 1587.1 18.4
2049 1612669068 1612.7 2049 1.59E+09 1594.2 18.5
2050 1619582271 1619.6 2050 1.6E+09 1601.0 18.6
-------------- --------------------
Penn World Tables Data
Discrepancy
with 2002
Millions Census
368.6 1.2
374.6 1.7
380.5 2.4
386.4 3.4
392.4 4.7
398.3 6.2
406.2 6.0
415.1 5.1
423.0 5.5
431.9 5.2
434.8 11.0
444.5 10.5
454.6 9.8
465.1 9.1
476.1 8.7
487.3 8.4
498.9 8.1
510.7 7.8
522.8 7.6
535.1 7.5
547.6 7.5
560.3 7.6
573.1 8.0
586.2 8.5
599.6 8.6
613.5 8.5
627.6 8.0
642.1 7.0
656.9 5.6
672.0 4.3
687.3 3.1
702.8 2.5
718.4 2.0
734.1 1.8
749.7 2.4
765.1 3.2
781.9 2.6
798.7 2.1
815.6 1.6
 832.5 1.3
849.5 1.0
866.5 0.4
882.3 0.6
898.2 1.0
913.6 2.2
929.4 3.1
945.6 3.3
962.4 3.0
979.7 2.0
997.5 0.4
1015.9 -1.9
Q&A for IndiaPopulation.xls
Show the effect of using t versus Year on Linear, Log-Linear, and autoregressive models.
What do you conclude?

USING t as the X variable

Year t Pop (millions) Lagged Pop LN Pop Pred Y = b0 + b1t
1950 0 370 5.91 12.13063 331.7372
1951 1 376 370 5.93 0.235355 5.469167
1952 2 383 376 5.95 0.985532 17.83119
1953 3 390 383 5.97 2656.552 39
1954 4 397 390 5.98 844654.1 12400.1
1955 5 404 397 6.00
1956 6 412 404 6.02 USING Year as the X variable
1957 7 420 412 6.04 Put
1958 8 428 420 6.06 your
1959 9 437 428 6.08 results
1960 10 446 437 6.10 here
1961 11 455 446 6.12
1962 12 464 455 6.14
1963 13 474 464 6.16
1964 14 485 474 6.18
1965 15 496 485 6.21
1966 16 507 496 6.23
1967 17 519 507 6.25
1968 18 530 519 6.27
1969 19 543 530 6.30
1970 20 555 543 6.32
1971 21 568 555 6.34
1972 22 581 568 6.37
1973 23 595 581 6.39
1974 24 608 595 6.41
1975 25 622 608 6.43
1976 26 636 622 6.45
1977 27 649 636 6.48
1978 28 663 649 6.50
1979 29 676 663 6.52
1980 30 690 676 6.54
1981 31 705 690 6.56
1982 32 720 705 6.58
1983 33 736 720 6.60
1984 34 752 736 6.62
1985 35 768 752 6.64
1986 36 784 768 6.66
1987 37 801 784 6.69
1988 38 817 801 6.71
1989 39 834 817 6.73
1990 40 851 834 6.75
as the X variable
Pred ln Y = b0 + b1t Pred Yt = b1Yt-1
0.02134 5.894656 1.021248 0
8.57E-05 0.001992 0.000206 #N/A
0.999371 0.006493 0.999998 0.762423
61997.55 39 24506240 39
2.614078 0.001644 14245209 22.67027

ear as the X variable