Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
2010
Separate Accounts Post Inflow of $2.9 Billion in Q3 2010. U.S. Equity Funds Redeem $103.5 Billion……..5
Institutions Recently Overweight Fixed Income. Investors Tend to Make Poor Allocation Decisions..….…..6
Contrarian Approach Works and Detailed Strategy Level. Fade Government Short Term Fixed…………….7
Fed Purchases $25.6 Billion in Treasuries in Past Week. Separate Account Investors Dump U.S. Equities and Load Up
on Bonds in Q3 2010. ETF Investors Show Strong Preference for Dividend Funds in 2010.
The Fed bought $25.6 billion in Treasuries in the past week, the second-largest total of the QE era. Policymakers
purchased at an average maturity of 7.8 years, up from 5.6 in the week prior. The Fed’s failure to cap rates is hardly
surprising. Our research shows that Treasury yields tended to rise in the sessions surrounding Fed buys during QE1,
probably because its purchase schedule is public. Policymakers will reveal more near-term purchase plans tomorrow, and
we expect LSAPs (large-scale asset purchases) to continue at a pace of $20 billion weekly.
Based on the Informa PSN dataset, we estimate that separate accounts posted an inflow of $2.9 billion in Q3 2010.
Separate account investors (mostly pension funds and insurers) loaded up on U.S. Fixed Income ($74.9 billion) and Global
Equity funds ($18.7 billion). U.S. Equity funds redeemed $103.5 billion, the fourth straight outflow. We feel these
flows are good news for stocks but bad news for bonds because our research shows that the asset allocation decisions of
separate account investors tends to prove poor.
Mom and pop say they are upbeat on equities—about 50% of respondents to the December 1 AAII survey are bullish on
stocks, much higher than the long-term average of 39%—but they continue to ditch them at large—we estimate that U.S.
equity mutual funds have redeemed $7.2 billion since the start of November. They are however placing long bets on
resources and metals. Natural Resources mutual funds hauled in 0.8% of assets in the past week, the fourth-largest inflow
of the fund categories we track, while Precious Metals funds took in 0.4% of assets. The latter boast a gargantuan year-to-
date return of 41.6%, while the former have returned 17.6%.
Bond investors seem skittish. Long Treasury mutual funds redeemed 1.0% of assets in the past week, Intermediate
Treasury funds posted an outflow of 0.14% of assets, and aggregate bond fund inflows have ground to a halt. Evidently
mom and pop realize it is indeed possible to lose money with a bond fund. The December bond contract plunged about
eight points (a decline of about 6%) in the past seven sessions; the 30-year yield vaulted to 4.44% from 4.10% and the
yield on the 10-year Treasury note surged to the highest level (3.24%) since June.
Leveraged long U.S. equity ETFs redeemed a heavy 3.6% of assets in the past week, while leveraged short U.S. equity
ETFs posted a light inflow of 0.2% of assets. This marks a reversal—long funds were recently posting heavy inflows and
short funds were posting large outflows. Leveraged ETF flows are one of the best contrary indicators in our tool kit, so
we feel aggressive long liquidation is bullish for equities.
ETF investors show a strong and lengthy preference for dividend funds. The heavy year-to-date inflows that SDY
(Spiders Dividends, $3.1 billion) and VIG (Vanguard Dividend Appreciation, $2.0 billion) boast make them the most
popular U.S. equity ETFs of 2010.
NYSE Short Interest Increases 0.9% in First Half of November. Margin Debt Soars Total 14.4% in September and
October to $269.6 Billion, Highest Level since September 2008. Cash as Share of Equity Mutual Fund Assets Remains
Historically Low.
Short interest at New York Stock Exchange member firms edged up 0.9% to 13.8 billion shares (3.6% of total shares
outstanding) in the first half of November. The increase is somewhat surprising because the S&P 500 gained 1.2% in the
period. Our research shows that short interest is a leading contrary indicator, so we view traders eager to bet against the
rally as bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Short interest increased the most in Consumer Discretionary (to 5.9% of shares outstanding from 5.8%) and Energy (to
3.9% from 3.8%).
Margin debt data reveals that speculative juices are flowing freely on Wall Street. NYSE margin debt soared a total
14.4% ($33.8 billion) in September and October to land at $269.6 billion, the highest level since September 2008. The
S&P 500 increased 12.8% in the same period. Also, margin debt now accounts for 16.7% of hedge fund assets, the largest
share since July 2007. Hedge fund managers are desperate to book fat profits before year-end because only about a third
are beating the S&P 500 this year, and they are willing to lever up to get the job done.
Cash as a share of equity mutual fund assets edged higher to 3.6% in October from 3.5% in September, just above the
record low of 3.4% and well below the long-term average of 4.5%. This suggests portfolio managers maintain strong
confidence in the rally (or perhaps only that they prefer buying pricey stocks to storing cash at yields that round to nil).
Hedge Funds Inflows Remain Heavy in November. Managers Turn Very Bearish on 10-Year Treasury Note.
Preliminary hedge fund data for November (152 funds) suggests inflows continue apace. We estimate that hedge funds
took in between $10 billion and $20 billion in November after posting an inflow of $10.3 billion in October. The industry
sucked in $40.5 billion in the past four months, the best such haul since the start of the credit crisis. Seasonality reverses
this month and in January thanks to year-end redemption requests.
Prelim data also suggests that a healthier risk appetite in October spilled into November. Emerging Markets hedge funds
posted another heavy inflow last month after hauling in $1.7 billion (0.8% of assets) in October. In contrast, Equity
Market Neutral funds and Macro funds posted a small outflow.
The Barclay Hedge Fund Index increased 0.8% in November and boasts a year-to-date return of 8.1%. Equity Long Bias
funds popped 1.8% last month, a remarkable performance against a down (slightly) market. Convertible Arbitrage
(11.6%), Fixed Income (11.2%), and Emerging Markets (10.6%) are the best performing hedge fund strategies in 2010.
The TrimTabs/BarclayHedge Survey of Hedge Fund Managers for November reveals that hedge fund managers remain
downbeat on the S&P 500. About 39% are bearish, while only 31% are bullish. Most managers responded on November
16, when the S&P 500 sank 1.6%, so ugly market action might have darkened moods. Bearish sentiment on the 10-year
Treasury note soared to 49% from 28% in October, while bullish sentiment fell to the lowest level (13%) since the
inception of our survey (this suggests the Fed will have to combat market forces in order to keep long yields from rising).
Overall bearish sentiment notwithstanding, a net 7% of managers aim to increase leverage in the coming weeks.
Spec Traders Sell Treasury Bond Futures for Five Straight Weeks and Continue to Bet against Convergence of Oil Prices
and Gas Prices.
Higher yields are making for happy speculative traders. These players were net sellers of Treasury bond futures in each of
the past five weeks, and they shifted to short on 10-year note futures on November 30. As to the front end of the curve,
spec traders sold two-year note contracts in the past four weeks.
Spec traders maintain (as of November 30) a short position of 2.4 to 1 on natural gas futures. They also maintain very
long large positions on most oil futures, which means they continue to bet on the divergence of oil prices and gas prices
even though the latter have recently risen.
Spec traders are marginal sellers of S&P 500 futures, but they maintain a net long position of 2.2 to 1 on Nasdaq 100
futures.
Special Focus
Separate Account Flows for Q3 2010
We estimate (based on Informa Investment Solution’s Plan Sponsor Network data) that separate accounts posted an
inflow of $2.9 billion in Q3 2010. This estimate is not likely to be revised significantly because about 80% of
managers have reported assets and returns for the period. Pension funds account for about 60% of separate account
assets, insurers account for about 20%, and individuals, endowments, and foundations account for the remainder.
U.S. Fixed Income funds ($74.9 billion) and Global Equity funds ($18.7 billion) posted the heaviest inflows in Q3
2010. U.S. Equity funds redeemed $103.5 billion, the fourth straight outflow. Separate account investors were
overweight U.S. Fixed Income funds in seven of the past eight quarters, which we attribute to the ageing of pension
fund beneficiaries.
U.S. Equity fund assets as a share of total separate account assets held steady at 28.2% between Q2 2010 and Q3
2010. These funds returned 11.3%—more than 8.6% for the average separate account—which offset the heavy
outflow. The share of U.S. Fixed Income assets fell to 43.0% from 45.0% because the strategy returned only 3.2%.
Separate account investors tend to make poor asset allocation decisions. The asset classes that post heavy inflows in
one quarter tend to underperform in the following quarter, while the asset classes that post large redemptions in one
quarter tend to outperform in the following quarter.
We observe the same pattern when we analyze flows and returns for 83 detailed fund strategies. A portfolio that
invests in the 15 most loved strategies returned only 38.9% in the past seven quarters, while a portfolio that invests in
the 15 most hated strategies returned 57.6%.
The most overbought strategies in Q3 2010 were Government Short Term Fixed, International Emerging Markets
Debt, and High Yield Intermediate. In contrast, many high-beta strategies—including REITs, Large Cap, and Broad
Equity Aggressive—were oversold. A simple contrarian approach is producing handsome returns in the current
quarter because fixed Income has greatly underperformed equities.
All of our flow datasets square with the notion that fixed income is dramatically overbought. Bond mutual funds
have hauled in $270 billion in 2010, while bond ETFs have taken in $23 billion and Fixed Income hedge funds have
received $7 billion.
If you are interested in learning more about the Informa database or receiving data directly, please contact Vincent Deluard
(Vincent.Deluard@TrimTabs.com) at (+1) 646-512-5616.
Separate Accounts Post Inflow of $2.9 Billion in Q3 2010. U.S. Equity Funds Redeem $103.5 Billion, but Share of
Total Assets Remains Stable at 28.2%.
Most separate account managers have reported assets and returns for Q3 2010. Based on information provided by 4,920
managers—who account for more than 80% of separate account assets included in Informa Investment Solution’s (IIS) Plan
Sponsor Network (PSN)—we estimate that separate accounts posted an inflow of $2.9 billion in Q3 2010. U.S. Equity funds
redeemed $103.5 billion, the heaviest outflow since the inception of the series (January 2009), while U.S. Fixed Income
funds hauled in $74.9 billion and Global Equity funds took in $18.7 billion.
U.S. Equity fund assets as a share of total separate account assets held steady at 28.2% between Q2 2010 and Q3 2010.
Good relative performance—an 11.3% return against only 8.6% for the average separate account—offset the heavy outflow.
Meanwhile, the share of U.S. Fixed Income assets decreased to 43.0% from 45.0% due to poor relative performance—the
strategy returned only 3.2%—and would have declined to 42.8% were it not for the inflow. Also, International Equity fund
assets as a share of total separate account assets skipped to 16.1% from 13.7%, which marks the largest increase of all
categories.
60%
40%
30%
20%
US Equity 28.2% US Equity 28.2%
10%
0%
2010-Q3 2010-Q2
Institutional Investors Consistently Overweight Fixed Income in Past Seven Quarters. Investors in Separate
Accounts Tend to Make Poor Asset Allocation Decisions.
As we detailed in previous research, separate account flows and returns do not appear to reveal a strong preference for any
particular rebalancing strategy. Investors sometimes buy the most beaten asset class, which squares with a constant-mix
rebalancing strategy, while they sometimes chase returns by piling into the hottest asset class.
But flow patterns do reveal clearly a steady over-allocation to fixed income. International Fixed Income funds hauled in
$51.5 billion (17.8% of assets) in the past seven quarters, while U.S. Fixed Income funds sucked in $164.0 billion (3.5% of
assets). Pension funds account for the largest share of separate account assets, so we attribute steady fixed-income inflows
to ageing fund beneficiaries.
200
Separate Accounts by Asset Class: Cumulative Flows
100
0
Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10
-100
US Equity
US Fixed Income
US Balanced
Global Equity
-200
Global Fixed Income
International Equity
International Fixed Income
-300
Should investors follow or fade separate account flows? Our analysis shows that they would have been better off going
against them in the past seven quarters. The most hated asset class (the one with the largest outflow/smallest inflow in any
given quarter) went on to return an average 5.3% in the following quarter. In contrast, the most loved class (those with the
heaviest inflow/lightest outflow in any given quarter) returned an average 3.9%.
The current quarter is not likely to prove an exception. Global Fixed Income was the most popular asset class in Q3 2010,
and the global bond funds we track daily posted a negative return of 1.3% between October 1 and December 3. In contrast,
U.S. Equity funds were the least popular asset class in Q3 2010, and the S&P 500 soared 7.3% in the same period.
Contrarian Approach Also Works at Detailed Strategy Level. Government Short Term Fixed and International
Emerging Markets Debt Funds Most Loved Strategies in Q3 2010—and Get Hammered during Recent Sell-Off in
Bond Market.
That the most oversold asset classes outperform might owe simply to luck—after all, there are only seven asset classes and
we have flows and returns for only seven quarters. We therefore set out to increase the robustness of our results by
expanding the universe. Thankfully, IIS also classifies fund managers according to 83 detailed strategies—High Yield Fixed
Income, International Value, Mid Cap Core, and so on—which make it easy for users to produce personalized analysis.
We measured flows for each strategy for the past seven quarters (note that we use flows as a percentage of assets to account
for differences in universe sizes). We then ranked all strategies from heaviest inflow to largest outflow and grouped the list
into six buckets. The first bucket contains the strategies with the 15 heaviest inflows (the most popular strategies), while the
sixth bucket contains the strategies with the 15 largest outflows (the least popular strategies).
We then created six portfolios that invest equally in the strategies in each bucket. The portfolios invest according to strategy
flow rank at the end of a quarter (the investment is made only once the flow is known), and they hold the strategies until the
following quarter.
Our findings? The first bucket (the most loved strategies) returned 38.9% in the simulation period, while the sixth bucket
(the most hated strategies) returned 57.6%. Also, performance increases almost linearly across buckets, which confirms the
value of the contrarian approach.
160
The Benefits of Going Against the Flow
120
110
100
90
Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10
Also, with just three weeks remaining in December, the contrarian approach is firmly on track to work again in the current
quarter. The three most popular strategies in Q3 2010 were Government Short Term Fixed, International Emerging Markets
Debt, and High Yield Intermediate. These funds have been hammered during the recent bond market sell-off.
In contrast, many high-beta strategies—including REITs, Large Cap, and Broad Equity Aggressive—were oversold in Q3
2010, and these funds have performed very strongly in the current quarter.
Notes:
Mutural Fund Flow (est) is a TrimTabs estimate based on i) flows tracked via TrimTabs daily survey, ii) market returns,
Flow = (Assets(t))-(Asset(t-1)*(NAV(t)/NAV(t-1))).
15%
10%
5%
% of Assets
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
US INTL BOND
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
$ millions
10,000
5,000
0
May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10
-5,000
-10,000
4000
3500
3000
2500
$ millions
2000
1500
1000
500
0
May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10
-500
-1000
US INTL Commodity
ETF: By Industry
Daily Trackable Survey Flows Past 4 Wks Last Week 2 Wks Ago 3 Wks Ago 4 Wks Ago 5 Wks Ago 6 Wks Ago
From 8-Nov 30-Nov 19-Nov 11-Nov 3-Nov 26-Oct 18-Oct
To 7-Dec 7-Dec 29-Nov 18-Nov 10-Nov 2-Nov 25-Oct-10
($millions) # of Funds TNA Flow Flow/TNA Flow Flow Flow Flow Flow Flow
Consumer Discretionary 14 5,582 1,155 20.7% 850 -130 632 1,155 159 -119
Consumer Staples 11 7,184 285 4.0% 267 -41 52 285 -83 -164
Energy 29 19,054 1,447 7.6% 1,231 361 -157 1,447 -103 -23
Financials 40 33,072 -66 -0.2% -119 -208 -172 -66 1,234 421
Health Care 22 8,616 34 0.4% -39 125 34 34 -60 -27
Industrials 16 8,154 497 6.1% 313 109 63 497 239 -206
Information Technology 34 14,016 196 1.4% 43 -57 75 196 152 -143
Materials 15 17,801 520 2.9% 442 150 105 520 21 15
Telecommunications 6 1,545 -36 -2.3% -8 -9 -21 -36 11 1
Utilities 14 5,773 -18 -0.3% 28 -69 5 -18 -239 47
Convertible Arbitrage -0.5 -1.5% 0.2% -0.1 -0.3% 11.6% -0.2 -0.8% 78.7% 30.5
Distressed Securities 0.0 0.0% 0.7% 0.8 0.8% 9.5% 2.0 1.9% 51.0% 104.1
Emerging Markets 6.2 2.8% 0.2% 11.7 5.3% 10.6% 9.0 4.1% 68.7% 220.7
Equity Long Bias 1.1 0.8% 1.8% 5.4 4.1% 8.5% 5.9 4.4% 48.9% 132.4
Equity Long Only 0.5 0.7% 0.0% 5.2 7.9% 5.0% 5.6 8.6% 64.4% 65.6
Equity Long-Short 3.5 2.2% 0.6% 2.3 1.4% 4.3% 0.7 0.4% 23.4% 162.7
Equity Market Neutral -1.0 -3.4% 1.5% -2.2 -7.6% 3.7% -2.6 -9.0% 4.0% 28.5
Event Driven 1.7 0.8% 0.0% 15.4 7.5% 6.7% 15.2 7.4% 43.2% 205.7
Fixed Income 2.8 1.7% 0.0% 10.4 6.2% 11.2% 8.8 5.3% 38.0% 166.6
Macro -0.3 -0.3% -0.1% 7.9 7.6% 4.7% 9.1 8.9% 13.8% 103.1
Merger Arbitrage 0.6 2.0% 0.0% 1.4 4.5% 5.3% 1.5 4.6% 19.9% 31.3
Multi-Strategy 0.1 0.1% 0.6% 7.1 3.8% 7.6% 6.6 3.5% 39.3% 188.3
Other -0.5 -2.1% 0.1% -0.1 -0.4% 3.5% 0.5 1.9% 7.7% 24.1
Sector Specific 0.4 0.4% 0.6% 0.1 0.1% 4.8% -0.5 -0.5% 32.1% 97.0
Hedge Fund Industry 14.8 0.9% 0.8% 65.4 4.2% 8.1% 61.5 3.9% 38.9% 1560.5
Funds of Funds -5.8 -1.1% 0.2% -12.3 -2.4% 2.9% -22.0 -4.3% 16.1% 511.8
CTAs 7.1 2.5% -1.0% 25.8 9.0% 3.2% 27.0 9.4% 1.6% 286.0
17
16
15
Billion shares
14
13
12
11
Sep-08 H2 Nov-08 H2 Jan-09 H2 Mar-09 H2 May-09 H2 Jul-09 H2 Sep-09 H2 Nov-09 H2 Jan-10 H2 Mar-10 H2 May-10 H2 Jul-10 H2 Sep-10 H2
Demand Index – 1 of 2
The TrimTabs Demand Index Closed at 80.23 on December 7 down from 83.87 on December 6, which is very Bullish.
The TrimTabs Demand Index (TTDI) measures demand conditions on the US stock market. It is bounded between 0 (very bearish) and 100 (very bullish)
Over the past nine years, it has correlated extremely well with stock prices movements
For more information on the TTDI, contact Vincent Deluard (Vincent.Deluard@TrimTabs.com)
The TrimTabs Demand Index Closed at 80.23 on December 7 down from 83.87 on December 6, which is very Bullish.
Variable Unit Current Value (1) Indexed Value (2) Regression T-Stat (3) Impact on the Index
Demand Index – 2 of 2
Exchange Country Market Cap ($T) Companies Start Date Reporting Lag Source Benefits of the Dataset
NYSE, Duplicate Transactions and option-related
Nasdaq & USA 18.1 13,600 Jan-03 1-2 Days SEC buying is excluded. Aggregation by GICS
sector
Amex
TSX Canada 1.8 3,710 Jan 06 1-30 Days SEDI
London
London Stock
Stock United 3.2 3,233 Jun-06 1-2 Days Exchange
Exchange Kingdom
AMF, Commission
Bancaire, Financiere et
France,
Euronext 3.3 1,022 Jan-06 1-30 Days des Assurance, the
Belgium, Autoriteit Financiale
Not other known source for this data.
Netherlands Markten
Aggregation by ICB Sectors
Deustche
1.7 851 Jan-07 1-3 Days BAFIN
Boerse Germany
Hong Kong Hong Kong 2 307 Jan-07 1-3 Days HKEX
*ICI tracks 7,280 funds with total net asset value of $8,057 billion on a monthly basis.
Futures and Short Interest Dataset
Assets of $323 Bn Daily
Data Type Periodicity AUM ($ Billion) Start Date Categorization Source Benefits of the Dataset
Data Aggregated over All Contracts.
S&P 500
Daily 184 Jan-84 Maturity CME "Money flows" are adjusted for roll-
Futures over between contracts
US Portfolios
% Change TTMP S&P 500 (SPY) Sector Portfolio S&P 500 (SPY)
Inception Date 29-Sep-00 16-Mar-06
International Portfolios
% Change UK EWU France EWQ Germany EWG Japan EWJ Hong Kong EWH China CSI 300
Inception Date 30-Jun-06 13-Oct-06 22-Feb-08 22-Feb-08 19-Jan-07 22-Feb-08
Last Week 0.0 3.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 3.4 1.8 3.6 0.0 4.0 -0.6 -1.1
2010 YTD 4.1 5.4 5.6 -6.3 3.4 8.0 0.9 9.2 -4.6 23.8 3.9 -11.7
Since Inception -45.1 -12.0 -37.4 -18.9 -81.7 -19.0 -45.1 -13.2 -37.8 23.0 25.1 -33.6
For further coverage of liquidity and macroeconomic trends, please refer to the following TrimTabs products:
- Daily Liquidity Report (Monday through Friday)
- Overnight Liquidity Update (Monday through Thursday)
- Weekly International Liquidity Review (Monday)
- Weekly Macro Analysis (Tuesday)
- Weekly Flow Report (Wednesday)
- Sector Liquidity (every other Thursday)
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