Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

Suggested Solution(SECTION A)

Let the probability that a form 5 student being employed be x.

(1 − 0.32 − 0.48) x 7
=
1 1
0.32( ) + 0.48(1 − ) + (1 − 0.32 − 0.48) x 27
4 3
0.2 x 7
=
0.4 + 0.2 x 27
x = 0.7

The required probability

(1 − 0.32 − 0.48)(1 − 0.7)
=
1 1
0.32(1 − ) + 0.48( ) + (1 − 0.32 − 0.48)(1 − 0.7)
4 3
3
=
23

Qbhf!2!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
The required probability
3 1 1
= (1 − ) × =
4 3 12

(b)
Let the probability that a student is male from those pass the exam be x.
3
x
4 9
=
3 3 1
x + (1 − )(1 − ) 14
4 4 3
3 3 1
14( x) = 9( x + )
4 4 6
2
x=
5

The required probability

3 2 3 1
= ( ) + (1 − )(1 − )
4 5 4 3
7
=
15

(c)
The required probability
3 1
(1 − )( )
= 4 3
3 2 3 1
(1 − ) + (1 − )( )
4 5 4 3
5
=
32

Qbhf!3!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

P( A ∩ B' )
(a) P( A | B' ) =
P( B' )
8 P( A ∩ B' )
=
9 7
1−
10
4
P( A ∩ B' ) =
15
P ( B ∩ A' )
P ( B | A' ) =
P ( A' )
9 P ( A'∩ B )
=
10 1− a
9
P ( A'∩ B ) = (1 − a )
10
(b) P ( A'∪ B ) + P ( A ∩ B ' ) = 1
Put P ( A'∪ B ) = P ( A' ) + P ( B ) − P ( A'∩ B )
7 9 4
(1 − a ) + − (1 − a ) + =1
10 10 15
1 1
(1 − a ) =
10 30
2
a=
3

9 2 3 7
(c) Since P ( A'∩ B ) = ( )(1 − ) = ≠ = P ( B ) and
10 3 10 10
4 2
P( A ∩ B' ) = ≠ = P ( A) , A and B are not mutually exclusive.
15 3

Qbhf!4!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

disease Non- disease

Positive 0.03*0.96 0.97*0.04
Negative 0.03*0.04 0.97*0.96
0.03 0.97

The required probability

C 3 (0.03 × 0.96) 2 (0.97 × 0.04) + (0.03 × 0.96) 3
= 2
(0.97 × 0.04 + 0.03 × 0.96) 3
= 0.3899

Let p (in %) of persons who have ever seen sexual movie.

p
1 True
4 White 1− p
False

3 1− p True
Blue
4 False
p
900 1 3
= p + (1 − p )
1500 4 4
p = 0.3
The required probability
2 3
 1   3  1  
C    ( 0.3) 
3
2 (  (1 − 0.3)) +    ( 0.3) 
=  4   4  4   = 0.0430
3
 900 
 
 1500 
11
(or )
256

Qbhf!5!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) P(Beckham) = 0.2 × 0.16 = 0.032

(b) P(Not Beckham) = 1 − 0.032 = 0.968

P(Dick Hui being goal keeper) = 0.8
0 .8
The probability = = 0.8264
0.968

(c) The probability

4
= ( 0.032 )(1 − 0.032 ) = 0.02810

(a) (i) The required probability

= 0.3 × 0.25 × 0.5
= 0.0375
(ii) The required probability
= (0.2)(0.7)(0.75)(0.5) + (0.8)(0.3)(0.75)(0.5) + (0.8)(0.7)(0.25)(0.5) +
(0.8)(0.7)(0.75)(0.5)
= 0.4225
(iii) The required probability
= (0.2)(1 – (0.5)(0.75)(0.7))
= 0.1475

(b) The required probability

= 0 .2

(c) The required probability

(0.2)(0.3)
=
0.1475
= 0.4068

Qbhf!6!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

1 6 5 3 5
 × + ×  × 2!
2  11 10 8 7 
(a)
333
=
616
(b)
P(Faye Faye and Mow Mow in House A)
5 3 1
= × =
10 9 6
P(Faye Faye and Mow Mow in House B)
5 6 1
= × =
10 9 3
The required Probability
11 2 1 1 2 1 
 × × + × × 
2  6 8 7 3 11 10  1
= =
333 90
616

(a) The number of different groups can be formed

= P26 × C820
= 3779100
(b) The possible numbers of girls are 8, 9, 10, 11,…, 17, 18, 19, 20
C8n 33
20
=
C8 323
33 20 × 19 × 18 ×
× 14 × 13
C8n = ×
323 8 × 7 × 6 ×
× 3 × 2 × 1
n = 16
∴ There are 16 girls among the Form 4 students

Qbhf!7!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) 3 Up 3 Forward 3 Right

No. of permutation of U, U, U, F, F, F, R, R, R
9!
=
3!×3!×3!
=1 680

(b) From A to C: 2 Forward 3 Right

5!
No. of permutation of 2F, 3R = = 10
2!×3!
First half of paths has 10 combinations.
Second half of paths has 4 combinations.
No. of shortest paths from A to B through C = (10)(4) = 40
1680 − 40 41
Probability = =
1680 42

3!  6!  4!  
× − 2!  
2!  3!2!  3!  
1680 39
(c) Probability = = =
41 410
42

(a) Sample Space : (3K, 1K2B, 2K1B, 1K2S, 2K1S,

1S2B, 2S1B, 1K1B1S, 3S, 3B)

(b) The required probability

C 5C17 C14 1
= 1 16 =
C3 4
(c) P(Mr Zhu picked 2 pieces of chocolates and at least 1 is Melty Suck)
12 11 9
= 1− × =
16 15 20
P(Mr Zhu picked 3 pieces of chocolates and at least 1 is Melty Suck)
12 11 10 17
= 1− × × =
16 15 14 28
The required probability
4 3 4 3 12
× × × ×3
247
= 16 15 + 16 15 14 =
9 17 765
20 28

Qbhf!8!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
1 + 3x
1− x
1 1
−
= (1 + 3 x) 2 (1 − x) 2

 1 1  1 3 
 1 (− )   (− )(− ) 
1
= 1 + (3 x) + 2 2 (3x) 2 + ...  1 − (− ) x + 2 2 x 2 + ...

 2 2!  2 2! 
  
= 1 + 2 x + ...

1 1
(b) − < x <
3 3

1
(c) Put x = −
7
1
1 + 3(− )
7 = 1 + 2(− 1 ) + ...
1 7
1 − (− )
7
1 2
≈ 1 − ≈ 0.7
2 7

Qbhf!9!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) (1 + ax )
−2
= 1 + (− 2 )(ax ) +
(− 2)(− 3) (ax )2 + (− 2 )(− 3)(− 4 ) (ax )3 + ...
2! 3!
= 1 − 2ax + 3a x − 4a 3 x 3 + ...
2 2

∴ − 108 = −4a 3
a=3
b = −2a = −6
c = 3a 2 = 27

(b) The expansion is valid when

− 1 < ax < 1 (or ax < 1, − ax < 1 )
− 1 < 3x < 1
1 1 1
i.e. − < x < (or x < )
3 3 3

 1  3   1  3  5 
 −  −   −  −  − 
 1  2  2 
(ax ) +  2  2  2  (ax )3 + ...
1
(i) (1 + ax )− 2 = 1 +  − (ax ) +
2

 2 2! 3!
a 3a 2 2 5a 3 3
= 1− x+ x − x + ...
2 8 16
3 2 27
(ii) a =
8 32
9
a2 =
4
3
a=±
2

Qbhf!:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

n(n − 1)a 2 2
(a) (1 + ax )n = 1 + nax + x + ...
2
 3
na = 2 ..........................(1)

 n(n − 1)a = 3 ..............(2)
2

 2 2
(2) n −1 2
=
(1) 2
2n 3
4n = 3n − 3
n = −3
1
∴ a=−
2
(b) x <2

(a.)
3 + 2 x 3x
−e
2+ x
x
−1
= (3 + 2 x)(2 + x) − e 3

x −1 3x
= (3 + 2 x)[2(1 + )] − e
2
x x x
( ) 2 ( )3
x ( −1)( − 2) x ( − 1)( − 2)( −3) x
= 2 −1 (3 + 2 x)[1 − + ( )2 + ( )3 + ...] − [1 + 3 + 3 + 3 + ...]
2 2! 2 3! 2 1! 2! 3!
2 3 2 3
1 x x x x x x
= (3 + 2 x)(1 − + − + ...) − (1 + + + + ...)
2 2 4 8 3 18 162
coeff. of x 3 :
1 1 1 1 1
= (3)(− ) + (2)( ) −
2 8 2 4 162
73
=
1296
(b.)
x
Valid range: <1
2
⇒ x <2

Qbhf!21!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a.)
p 4 − 4 p 3k + 6 p 2 k 2 − 4 pk 3 + k 4
= C04 p 4−0 (− k )0 + C14 p 4−1 (−k )1 + C 42 p 4− 2 (− k ) 2 + C34 p 4−3 (− k )3 + C 44 p 4− 4 (− k ) 4
= ( p − k )4

(b.)
1
(1 − x) 2
1 1 1 1 1
( )( − 1) ( )( − 1)( − 2)
1
= 1 + ( − x) + 2 2 (− x) + 2 2
2 2 (− x)3 + ...
2 2! 3!
1 1 1
= 1 − x − x 2 − x3 + ...
2 8 16
Valid range: − x < 1
⇒ x <1
∵ x = −6, −6 > 1
∴ It is not valid.

(a.)
2
= 2(1 − x) −2
(1 − x) 2
( − 2)( − 2 − 1)...(−2 − r + 1)
The (r + 1)th term: 2[ (− x)r ]
r!
( − 2 − 0)( − 2 − 1)...(−2 − (r − 1))
= 2[ (−1) r ( x) r ]
r!
(2)(3)...(r + 1) r
= 2[ ( x) ]
r!
= 2(r + 1) x r

(b.)
Sub r = 5,
coeff. of x5 = 2(5 + 1) = 12

Qbhf!22!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(ai) ( p + q + r )2
= (( p + q ) + r )
2

= ( p + q ) + 2( p + q )r + r 2
2

= p 2 + q 2 + r 2 + 2 pq + 2qr + 2rp

( p + q + r )6 = ( p + q + r )( p + q + r )( p + q + r )( p + q + r )( p + q + r )( p + q + r )
Coefficient of pr 5 , pq 5 , rp 5 , rq 5 , qp 5 and qr 5 = 6
(bi) Probability required
= 1 – P(all same colour)
= 1 – P(all red) – P(all blue) – P(all green)
= 1 − a6 − b6 − c6

(ii) by a)ii) Probability = 6a 5 b + 6a 5 c + 6b 5 a + 6b 5 c + 6c 5 a + 6c 5 b

5 1 1
(a) ln q = ln( x + 3) − ln(2 x − 1) − ( x + 6)
2 2 2
Differentiate both sides w.r.t. x , we have
1 dq 5 2 1
= − −
q dx 2( x + 3) 2(2 x − 1) 2( x + 6)

dq  5 1 1 
= q − − 
dx  2( x + 3) 2 x − 1 2( x + 6) 
(b) q = 3 y
ln q = y ln 3
1 dy
= ln 3
q dq
dy 1
=
dq q ln 3
dy dy dq 1  5 1 1 
Hence, = =  − − 
dx dq dx ln 3  2( x + 3) 2 x − 1 2( x + 6) 

Qbhf!23!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) The graph of f ( x ) is concave downward (or convex upward)

when x < 2 or x > 5 .

(b) The points of inflexion are (2, 5) and (5, 0).

(c)
y

(–2, 10)

(2, 5)

O (5, 0) x

(a) N (t ) = ∫ 2(t − 25)dt

= t 2 − 50t + c
∵ N (0) = 400 ∴ c = 400
Hence N (t ) = t 2 − 50t + 400 for 0 ≤ t ≤ k .
(b) ∵ N (k ) = 0
∴ k 2 − 50k + 400 = 0
(k − 10)(k − 40) = 0
k = 40 (rejected) or k = 10
k = 10
(c) N (8) − N (0)
= (8) − 50(8) + 400 − 400
2

= −336
∴ The total number decreased in the first 8 years is 336.

Qbhf!24!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

Let 設 u = t 2 + 4t
Then du = 2(t + 2)dt
x = ∫ 2(t + 2) t 2 + 4t dt
1
x = ∫ u du
2

3
2 2
x= u +C
3
3
2
x = (t 2 + 4t )2 + C
3
3
2 2
Since x = 100 when t = 0 , 100 =
3
(0 + 4( 0) ) 2 + C
C = 100
3
2 2
∴x =
3
(t + 4t )2 + 100

dy
= 2 x ln x + x
dx
∫ (2 x ln x + x )dx = x ln x + C
2

2 ∫ x ln xdx = x 2 ln x − ∫ xdx + C

∫ x ln xdx = 2 (x )
1 C
2
ln x − ∫ xdx +
2
x2 1 C
= (ln x − ) + C ' where C ' =
2 2 2

Let X be the number of students going to school by bus every day in a class.
(a) P( X = 6) = C 620 (0.3) (1 − 0.3)
6 14

= 0.1916
(b) E ( X ) = np = 20 × 0.3 = 6
The mean number of students is 6.
(c) The probability that the 10th class is the first one to have exactly 5 students going to
school by bus every day
= (1 − 0.1916 ) (0.1916 )
9

= 0.0283

Qbhf!25!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

3 4 e −3
(a) P= = 0.1680
4!
(b) P = 0.168031355 × (C 34 (0.55) 3 (1 − 0.55) + 0.55 4 ) = 0.0657

(a) Median = 76
Interquartile range = 23
(b)
95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

Old marks New marks

(c) Yes. Observe that the difference between the two minimum marks is 5. His
suggestion is true.

Qbhf!26!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) a = 4 , b = 1, c = 4

(b)

Minimum Q1 Median Q3 Maximum

Before replacement 152 165 171 179 194
After replacement 152 165 172 179 192

200

190

180

170

160

150

140
Before After
replacement replacement
1M any box-and-whisker diagram with correct scale
1M all correct, same scale

Qbhf!27!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) sample mean = 5.02

3(18) + 4(16) + 5 N + 6(38) + 7(8)
= 5.02
18 + 16 + N + 38 + 8
N = 20
Sample variance = 1.263
(b) New mean = 4.02. New variance = 1.263.
(c)
Her conclusion is not justified since there are many possibilities leading to
misconception:

There might be some people in the holiday.
 There might be some villagers working outside the village.
 There might be non-villagers working in the market and they are counted..
 Those who are retired or studying are not counted.

(a)
40
Number of Persons

30

20

10

10 15 125 45 55
Mode age = 15 + 5 × 10 = 25 35
10 + 25 7
Age (X)
(b) Original mean ≈ 22 while actual mean is 22.2
Therefore the correct value of the wrong data should be larger then it’s original
value by about 20 and the most probable actual group should be 45 ≤ X < 55 .

Qbhf!28!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

Suggested Solution(SECTION B)

24
(a) f ( 0) = g ( 0)  p= =8 1A
3
60 8
f (12) = g (12)  =  q=2 1A
15 q

3 x + 24
(b) Since lim− f ( x) = lim− = −∞
x → −3 x+3
x → −3

3 x + 24
and lim+ f ( x) = lim+ = +∞
x → −3 x → −3 x+3
∴ x = −3 is a vertical asymptote. 1A
24
3+
Since lim f ( x) = lim x =3
x → ±∞ x → ±∞ 3
1+
x
∴ y = 3 is a horizontal asymptote. 1A
y

x = −3
y = g (x )

(0,8)
y=3
(12,4)

O x
(− 8,0)

y = f (x )

Qbhf!29!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(c) Let the area be A

12 3 x + 24
A=∫ dx 1A
0 x+3
12 15
= ∫ (3 + )dx
0 x+3
= [3x + 15 ln( x + 3)]0
12
1A
= 36 + 15 ln 5 (60.1416) 1A

1
− x ln 2 12 1
Let u = 2 12
, then ln u = − x and dx = − du 1M
12 ln 2 u
1
k +12 − x
∫k
(8)2 12
dx
k
− −1
2 12  12 1 
∫ −
k
2 12
8u  −  du
 ln 2 u 
1M
k
− −1
2 12
 96 
= − u k 1M
 ln 2  2−12
96  −12k −1 −12k 
=− 2 −2 
ln 2  
k
96 −
= (2 12 ) 1A
2 ln 2

48 −12k
If (2 ) = 36 + 15ln 5 , then
ln 2
k  ln 2 
− ln 2 = ln (36 + 15ln 5)
12  48 
k = 2.4413 1A

Qbhf!2:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

( x − 5)(3) − (3 x − 6)(1) −9
(a) f ' (x ) = = <0 1
( x − 5) 2
( x − 5 )2
(b) ∵ f (− 1) = g (− 1) and f (4) = g (4)
3  1 − e0 
 = h −1  + k
2  e 
∴ 
− 6 = h 1 − e  + k
5

  e4 
  
 3
 e 4 (6 + ) 4
2 = 15e
 h =
 e5 − 1 2(e 5 − 1) 1A+1A
 3
k =
 2

(c)
3x − 6 3x − 6
∵ lim f ( x ) = = −∞ and lim+ f ( x ) = = +∞ 1A
x →5 − x−5 x → 5 x−5
∴ x = 5 is a vertical asymptote to C1 .
6
3−
∵ lim f ( x ) = lim x =3
x → ±∞ x → ±∞ 5
1−
x
∴ y = 3 is a horizontal asymptote to C1 . 1A

C2 y

10
C1
5
(–1, 3/2) (0, 6/5)

0 2 4 6 x
–4 –2 (0, –0.78)

–5
(4, –6)

–10

–15 C1

Qbhf!31!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

15e 4  1 − e x +1  3
(d) g (x ) =  +
2(e 5 − 1)  e x  2
15e 4  e x (−e x +1 ) − (1 − e x +1 )e x
 − 15e 4 − x
g ' (x ) =   = e 1M
2(e 5 − 1)  e2x 5
 2(e − 1)
∴ g ' ( x ) < 0 and hence g ( x ) is (strictly) decreasing for all values of x.
1M
For x < −2 , f ( x ) < 3 but g ( x ) > 3 .
For x > 6 , f ( x ) > 3 but g ( x ) < 3
Thus C1 and C 2 has no point of intersection at the range. 1

(e) Area of the region bounded by C1 and C 2

4
=∫ ( f (x ) − g (x ))dx 1M
−1

4  3x − 6 15e 4  1 − e x +1  3 
=∫   −   − dx
− 5 5
− x 
−1
 x 2 ( e 1)  e  2
4 9  15e 4 3 4
 3 + dx −
4
(
∫−1  x − 5  2(e 5 − 1) ∫−1 e − e dx − 2 ∫−1dx
−x
)
4
3 4
= [x]−1 + 9[ln x − 5 ]4−1 − 155e − e − x − ex 4−1
[ ] 1A+1A
2 2(e − 1)
= 7.5 − 16.12583522 + 30.25438706
= 21.6286 1A

Qbhf!32!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

a. Vertical asymptotes : x = −4
Horizontal asymptotes : y = 2

C1

(4, 0) C1
–4

–2
C2

C2

b) C 2 : Vertical asymptotes x = −4
Horizontal asymptotes y = −2
x-intercept = 4
y-intercept = − 2
point of intersection = (4, 0)

 λ 2x − 8  2x − 8  
c)  ∫ − −  dx = 4λ − 16 + 32 ln (λ − 6 )
 4 x + 4  x + 4 
λ x−4
4∫ dx = 4λ − 16 + 32 ln (λ − 6 )
4 x+4

λ 8 
∫4 1 − x + 4 dx = λ − 4 + 8 ln(λ − 6)
[x − 8 ln( x + 4)]λ4 = λ − 4 + 8 ln(λ − 6)
(λ − 4) − 8(ln(λ + 4) − ln(8)) = λ − 4 + 8 ln(λ − 6)
ln 8 − ln(λ + 4) = ln(λ − 6)
8
=λ −6
λ+4
λ2 − 2λ − 32 = 0
λ = 1 + 33 or λ = 1 − 33 (rejected)

Qbhf!33!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) Given f(0) = g(0) and f(6) = g(6).

 5(0) + 5 2
 0 − 1 = (0) + a (0) + b
We have  1M
 5(6) + 5 = (6) 2 + a (6) + b
 6 − 1
 −5 = b

7 = 36 + 6a + b
Solving, we have a = −4 and b = −5 . 1A + 1A
5
5+
5x + 5 x =5
(b) ∵ lim = lim
x →±∞ x − 1 x →±∞ 1
1−
x
∴ the equation of the horizontal asymptote to C1 is y = 5. 1A
5x + 5 5x + 5
∵ lim− f ( x) = lim− = −∞ and lim+ f ( x) = lim+ =∞
x →1 x →1 x − 1 x →1 x →1 x − 1

∴ the equation of the vertical asymptote to C1 is x = 1. 1A

(c) y

C1: y = f(x)

(6, 7)
y=5

C1: y = f(x)

O x
(-1, 0) (5, 0)

C2: y = g(x)
(0, –5)
3A

(2, –9)
x=1

Qbhf!34!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

5 x + 5 5( x − 1) + 10 10
y= = = 5+
x −1 x −1 x −1
dy 10
=−
dx ( x − 1) 2
When x = 6
dy 10 2
=− 2
=−
dx (6 − 1) 5
Equation of Tangent:
y−7 2
=−
x−6 5
2 x + 5 y − 47 = 0
1M+1A

(d) The area enclosed

0  5x + 5 
=∫  − ( x 2 − 4 x − 5 )  dx 1M
−1
 x −1 
0  10 
= ∫ 5 + − ( x 2 − 4 x − 5 )  dx
−1
 x −1 
0  10 
= ∫ 10 + − x 2 + 4 x  dx
−1
 x −1 
0
 x3 
= 10 x + 10 ln x − 1 − + 2 x 2  1A
 3  −1
1
= (0 + 0 − 0 + 0) − (−10 + 10 ln 2 + + 2)
3
≈ 0.735194861
= 0.7352 1A

Qbhf!35!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
t 0 1 2 3 4
2
t
1 1.22140 2.22554 6.04965 24.53253
e5
1A

t2
4 4−0
∴ ∫0
5
e dt =
2(4)
(1 + 24.53253 + 2 (1.22140 + 2.22554 + 6.04965) ) 1M

= 22.2629 1A

 t 
2

− P t =0 = ∫  4e 5 − t dt
4
∵ P t =4
0  
 
4 
2
t

∴ P t =6 = ∫  4e 5 − t dt + 20 2A
0  
 

t2 4
4 t 2 
= 5∫ e dt −   + 20
10
1A
0
 2 0
= 5 × 22.2629 − 8 + 20
= 101.0516 ∼ 101 1A

(b) (i) Put t = 4 and P = 125 into P = ate −0.05t − 80 .

101 = 4ae−0.2 − 80 1M
a = 55.3 1A
(ii) P = 55.3te−0.05t − 80
P ' = 55.3 ( −0.05te−0.05t + e −0.05t )
P ' = 55.3e −0.05t (1 − 0.05t ) 1M
∵ e −0.05t > 0 for all t
∴ P' = 0 only when t = 20 1A
> 0 for t < 20
and P'  1M
< 0 for t > 20
Hence the population size will attain its max when t = 20 .
The maximum population size
= 55.3 × 20e −0.05⋅20 − 80 = 326.8747 ≈ 327 1A
(iii) Sub y = e 0.05t into 55.3te−0.05t − 80 = 0 , we have y = 0.69125t . 1M
The graphs y = e 0.05t and y = 0.69125t intersect at t = 2 or 80
∵t ≥ 4
∴The species of reptile becomes extinct ( 55.3te−0.05t − 80 = 0 )
when t = 80 . 1A

Qbhf!36!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
x 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 1A
f (x ) 1 1.00083 1.00336 1.00761 1.01370 1.02175
0.25 − 0
I1 =
2(5)
( (1 + 1.02175) + 2 (1.00083 + 1.00336 + 1.00761 + 1.01370 ) )
= 0.2518 1M+1A

2x
f ' (x ) = 4
1A
2 3
3(1 − x )
2(3 + 5 x 2 )
f ' ' (x ) = 7
1A
(
9 1− x )
2 3

1
f ' ' (x ) > 0 for 0 ≤ x ≤ ,
4
 1
∴ f ( x ) is concave upward (or convex) on  0,  1
 4
Hence I 1 is an over-estimate of I. 1A

Qbhf!37!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

1
f ( x ) = (1 − x 2 )
−
(b) (i) 3

 1  4   1  4  7 
 −  −   −  −  − 
 1
= 1+ −  − x + 
3  3 
+
3  3  3 
_ 2
( )− x2 ( )2
( )3
− x 2 + ...
 3  2! 3!
_ 1M+1A
1 2 14 1
= 1 + x 2 + x 4 + x 6 + ... for 0 ≤ x ≤
3 9 81 4
1 2 14
∴ P( x ) = 1 + x 2 + x 4 + x 6 + ... 1A
3 9 81
1
 1 2 14 
I2 = ∫ 4 1 + x 2 + x 4 + x 6 dx
0
 3 9 81 
1
 1 2 5 2 7 4
=  x + x3 + x + x  1A
 9 45 81  0
= 0.2518 1A
 1  1   1 
∞ 
−  − − 1... − − r + 1
∵ f (x ) = p(x ) + ∑ 
r =4
3  3   3
r!
((
 − x2 ))
r

 1  4   1 
∞    
... + r − 1
= p ( x ) + ∑      x 2r
3 3 3
r =4 r!
> p(x )
Hence I > I 2
i.e. I 2 is an under-estimate of I.
(iii)
1 1
8x + 3 4(2 x + 1) − 1
∫ 2 x + 1 ∫04 2 x + 1 dx
0
4
dx =
1
1
= ∫44− dx
0 2x +1
1
 ln(2 x + 1)  4
= 4 x − 
 2 0
= 0.7973
Since I 2 < I < I1 (by (a) and (b) ), I ≈ 0.2518 , I 3 > I

Qbhf!38!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

4ab
(a) (i) lnP' (t ) = −bt + ln …1A
1− a
From the graph,
0.25 − 2.75
−b = , b ≈ 0 .5 …1A
5−0
4ab
ln = 2.75 , a ≈ 0.8866 ≈ 0.9 …1A
1− a
P' (t ) = 18e −0.5t
P(t ) = −36e −0.5t + c for some constant c …1M
Since P(0) = 21 , ∴c = 57 …1A
Hence P(t ) = −36e −0.5t + 57

(ii) µ = P(3) ≈ 48.9673 …1A

(b) (i) (I)

Given a = 0.9.
3
−
So S' (t ) = 2.4(t + 9) 2

1
−
S(t ) = −4.8(t + 9) 2 + c for some constant c
Since S(0) = 25, c = 26.6.
1
−
Hence, S(t ) = −4.8(t + 9) 2
+ 26.6
lim S(t ) = 26.6 < 48.9673
t →∞

The SMI in Guangzhou will not reach the value µ in (a)(ii).

(II)
Stabilized SMI in HK = lim P(t ) = 57 …1M+1A
t →∞
The amount of stabilized SMI reduced = 57 – 26.6 = 30.4
(ii) The range of possible values of a is a > 0.1 since S' (t ) > 0 if a > 0.1.

Qbhf!39!
 Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) F(t ) = 200a bt , we have ln F(t ) = (b ln a ) t + ln 200

t 1 2 3 4
F (t ) 525 1380 5624 9518
ln F (t ) 6.2634 7.2298 8.6348 9.1609
1M

10.5

10

9.5

8.5

7.5

6.5

0 3 t
1 2 4
At t = 3.0 , F(t ) = 5624 is incorrect, …1A
(b)y-intercept = ln200 …1A
(c) ln F(2.5) ≈ 7.7
∴ F(2.5) = 2208 …1A

Qbhf!3:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) (i) Mary: ln P' (t ) = ln a + b ln t …1A

Peter: ln P' (t ) = ln u + vt …1A
(ii)
t 1 2 3 4 5 6
P' (t ) 13.942 16.198 18.820 21.865 25.404 29.515
ln t 0 0.69 1.10 1.39 1.61 1.79
ln P' (t ) 2.63 2.78 2.93 3.08 3.23 3.38
ln P ' ( t ) …1A+1A
5

0 0 .5 1 1 .5 2 ln t
…1A+1A

Qbhf!41!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(II)
ln P ' ( t )
5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
…1A+1A
From the graphs, equation of Peter would be a better model and
ln u ≈ 2.5
u ≈ e 2.5 ≈ 12.18 …1A
3.38 − 2.63
v≈ ≈ 0.15 …1A
6 −1
10
(b) P(10) − P (0) = ∫ u evt dt where u ≈ 12.18, v ≈ 0.15 …1M+1A
0

u vt 10 12.18 0.15t 10
=
v
[ ]
e 0 (≈
0.15
e [
0 ) ]
≈ 283.7132
P(10) = P(0) + 282.7132 = 450 + 282.7132 ≈ 733
∴The population of the country after 10 years will be 733 thousands. …1A
k k
Consider P(k ) − P(0) = ∫ ue dt , P(k ) = P(0) + ∫ ue dt = 733 × 2 = 1466
vt vt
0 0
k
∫ 0
uevt dt = 1466 − 450 = 1016 …1M
12.18 0.15 k
e − 1 = 1016 ⇒ k ≈ 17.3573 ≈ 18
0.15 
∴ The number of population will be doubled in 18 – 10 = 8 years more. …1A

Qbhf!42!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) f (t ) = 24 + 3 − at +b
ln( f (t ) − 24) = −(a ln 3)t + b ln 3

− a ln 3 = −0.66
a ≈ 0.600758
a = 0 .6
b ln 3 = 2.20
b ≈ 2.00253
b=2
(c)
The total number of newspaper sold
10
= ∫ g (t )dt
2

10 − 2
= [g (2) + g (10) + 2( g (4) + g (6) + g (8))]
2( 4)
≈ 212.3652526
= 212.3653
(in thousand)
(d) (i) 3t = e rt
r = ln 3
g (t ) = 24 + ln(t + 2) + 3 −0.6t + 2
g (t ) = 24 + ln(t + 2) + 9e − (ln 3) 0.6t
dg 1
= + −(ln 3)5.4e − (ln 3) 0.6t
dt t + 2
d 2g 1
2
= (ln 3) 2 3.24e − (ln 3) 0.6t −
dt (t + 2) 2
m(t ) = (ln 3)2 3.24e − (ln 3)0.6t
d 2g 1
(iii) Note that 2
= (ln 3) 2 3.24e −(ln 3) 0.6t − ≠0
dt (t + 2) 2
And p (t ) = (ln 3) 2 3.24e − (ln 3) 0.6t > 0 for 2 ≤ t ≤ 10
d 2g
Then >0
dt 2
The estimate in (c) is an over-estimate.

Qbhf!43!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

a
a 50a
Given that R( x) = 50(1 − bx
) = 50 − bx
e e
50a
⇔ 50 − R( x) =
ebx
50a
⇔ ln (50 − R( x)) = ln( )
ebx
⇔ ln (50 − R( x)) = ln 50a − ln ebx
⇔ ln (50 − R( x)) = −bx + ln 50a

b
Consider the following table.

x 10 20 30 40
R(x) 23.1872 32.0268 37.9522 41.9241
ln (50 − R( x)) 3.2889 2.8889 2.4889 2.0889
ln ( 50 − R( x) )
ln ( 50 − R ( x) )

1A for the data

1 1A for the shape of st. line

0 x
0 10 20 30 40

Qbhf!44!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

From the above diagram,

y -intercept = ln(50a ) ≈ 3.7
a ≈ 0.808946 ≈ 0.8
The slope of the straight line = −b
2.8889 − 3.2889
∴−b =
20 − 10
b = 0.04

c
0.8
Now R( x) = 50(1 − 0.04 x
) = 50 − 40e −0.04 x
e
dR ( x)
= −40(−0.04)e −0.04 x = 1.6e −0.04 x
dx
2
d R( x)
2
= 1.6(−0.04)e −0.04 x = −0.064e−0.04 x
dx
dR( x) d 2 R( x)
Note that > 0 and < 0 for all x > 0, also
dx dx 2
dR( x) d 2 R( x)
lim = lim1.6e −0.04 x = 0 and lim 2
= lim − 0.064e −0.04 x = 0
x →∞ dx x →∞ x →∞ dx x →∞

Hence, it means that R(x) increases continuously but the rate of increase is
decreasing. In the long run, R(x) will become stable (at 50).

d
Let P (x) be the profit of the park
0.8
P( x) = 50(1 − ) − 0.2 x − 4 = 46 − 40e−0.04 x − 0.2 x
e0.04 x
dP ( x)
= −40(−0.04)e−0.04 x − 0.2 = 1.6e −0.04 x − 0.2
dx
d 2 P( x)
2
= 1.6(−0.04)e −0.04 x = −0.064e −0.04 x
dx
dP( x)
When = 0, x ≈ 51.9860 ≈ 52
dx
d 2 P( x)
Note that < 0 for all x.
dx 2
The required value of x is 52.

Qbhf!45!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) Since C (0) = 5 ,

∴ 2 p + 21 − 3 p − 12 = 5
p=4 1
C ( x ) = 8 + 21e − qx
− 24e −2 qx

C ' ( x ) = −21qe − qx
+ 48qe −2 qx 1A
= −3qe − qx
(7 − 16e ) − qx

7 1 16
C ' ( x ) = 0 when e −qx = or x = ln 1A
16 q 7
 1 16
> 0 when 0≤x< ln
and C ' (x ) q 7
1M
< 0 1 16
when x > ln
 q 7
7
∴ C ( x ) is maximum when e −qx =
16
 7 7 
The maximum CISD =  8 + 21( ) − 24( ) 2  mg/L
 16 16 
= 12.5938 mg/L 1A

(b) (i) Solving C ( x ) = 11 , we have

8 + 21e − qx − 24e −2 qx = 11 1M
( ) − 21e + 3 = 0
24 e − qx 2 − qx

8(e ) − 7e + 1 = 0
− qx 2 − qx

7 ± 17
e −qx = 1A
16
1 7 ± 17
x = − ln
q 16
1 7 − 17 1 7 + 17
Hence − ln + ln = 5.41 1M+1A
q 16 q 16
1 7 + 17
ln = 5.41
q 7 − 17
q = 0.25 (2 d.p.) 1A

Qbhf!46!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(ii) C ' ( x ) = −5.25e −0.25 x + 12e −0.5 x

C ' ' (x ) = 1.3125e −0.25 x − 6e −0.5 x
= −e−0.25 x ( 6e−0.25 x − 1.3125 )
1 7
C ' ' ( x ) = 0 when x = − ln (≈ 6.1)
0.25 32
 1 7
> 0 when x>− ln
0.25 32
and C ' ' ( x ) 1M
1 7
< 0 when 0 ≤ x < − ln
 0.25 32
∴ 6.1 km distant from the location of discharge, the rate of change of the
CISD is smallest. 1A

(iii) Solving C ( x ) = 8.5, we have

24e −0.5 x − 21e −0.25 x + 0.5 = 0
21 ± 393
e−0.25 x =
48
1 21 ± 393
x=− ln
0.25 48
x ≈ 0.65 or 14.8 1A
∴ The air condition will return to be safe 14.8 km distant from the
location of discharge of waste. 1

Qbhf!47!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) ∵ N (0) = 72
360
∴ = 72 1M
1+ a
a=4 1A

∵ N (7 ) = 85.4
360
∴ = 85.4 1M
1 + 4e − 7 α
1  360 
e − 7α =  − 1
4  85.4 
1  1  360 
α = − ln  − 1  1M
7  4  85.4  
α = 0.03

360
(b) N (t ) =
1 + 4e − 0.03t
N ' (t ) =
(
− 360 (4)(−0.03)e −0.03t
=
)
43.2e − 0.03t
>0 1M+1A+1
(
1 + 4e − 0.03t
2
) (
1 + 4e − 0.03t
2
)
∴ N (t ) is increasing.
(c) ∵ lim e −αt = 0
t →∞

360 360
∴ N s = lim − 0. 03 t
= = 360 1M+1A
t → ∞ 1 + 4e 1 + 4( 0)
(d) N ' ' (t )
(1 + 4e −0.03t ) 2 (−0.03e −0.03t ) − (e −0.03t )(2)(1 + 4e −0.03t )(−0.12e −0.03t )
= (43.2) 1M
(1 + 4e )
−0.03t 4

=
(
1.296e −0.03t 4e −0.03t − 1 ) 1A
(1 + 4e )
−0.03t 3

> 0 when t < t 0


From (i), N ' ' (t )= 0 when t = t 0 1M
< 0 when t > t
 0

1 1
where t0 = − ln = 46.2098
0.03 4
∴ The rate of increase is the greatest when t = t0 = 46.2098 1M
∵ N ' (46) = 2.69997
N ' (47 ) = 2.6996
∴ The railway company should start promotion campaign on the 46th day
after the first 2 week. 1A

Qbhf!48!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) Let u = e + t 2 e4−2t . Then, we have

du
= −2t 2e 4−2t + 2te 4−2t 1M for product rule
dt
du
= 2te 4−2t (1 − t ) 1A
dt
dW 12t (1 − t )
Given that = 2 t −3 2 .
dt e +t
dW 12te4−2t (1 − t )
We have = .
dt e + t 2e4−2t
12te4−2t (1 − t )
W =∫ dt
e + t 2e4−2t
6
W = ∫ du 1M for using (a)(i)
u
W = 6 ln u + C
W = 6 ln(e + t 2 e4− 2t ) + C
Note that when t = 0, W = 100. So we have100 = 6 ln(e + 0) + C
C = 94. 1M for finding C
2 4−2t
Hence W = 6 ln(e + t e ) + 94 1A

dW 12t (1 − t )
(b) = 2 t −3 2
dt e +t
d 2W
=
( ) (
e2t −3 + t 2 (12 − 24t ) − (12t (1 − t ) ) 2e 2t −3 + 2t )
2
dt 2 ( )
e 2 t −3 + t 2
1M for quotient rule
 2 t −3 2 2
d 2W  e (2t − 4t + 1) − t 
= 12 1A
dt 2  2 2 
 (
e 2 t −3
+ t ) 
dW
When = 0 , we have t = 0 or t =1.
dt
 d 2W
 2 >0
 d t t =0
Hence we have  . 1M for testing + 1A
2
 d W
<0
 dt 2
 t =1

W attains minimum at t = 0 and W attains maximum at t =1.

∴ The maximum value of W
W (1)
≈ 108 1A

Qbhf!49!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(c) (i) No, the maximum value is only 108. (by (b))
1M for comparing W (1) and
150 + 1A

(ii) lim W
t →∞

= lim 6 ln(e + t 2 e 4− 2t ) + 94  1M

t →∞

 t2 4 
= lim 6 ln(e + 2t e ) + 94 
t →∞
 e 
= 6 ln(e + 0) + 94
= 6 + 94
= 100 1A
In the long run, W will tend to 100. It means that the number of ants
will become stable at 100. 1A for description

Qbhf!4:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
Expected money win by Draw A
1(2000) + 4(500) + 96(0)
= = 40
100
Expected money win by Draw B
1(70000) + 3(5000) + 6 s + 490(0) 3s
= = 170 +
500 250
Since the selling price of Draw B ticket is 5 times of Draw A,
the expected amount won per dollar of the 2 draws are the same.
1 3s
∴ 40 = (170 + )
5 250
s = 2500
(b)(i)
The required probability
95 C5490
= ×
100 C5500
= 0.858372 ≈ 0.8584

(b)(ii)
The required probability
5 C5490 95 C110C4490
= × + ×
100 C5500 100 C5500
= 0.133487 ≈ 0.1335

(c)
P (win more than 1 prize)
= 1 − 0.858372 − 0.133487 = 0.008141
The required probability
= 0.008141 + 0.858372(0.008141) + 0.8583722 (0.008141) + 0.8583723 (0.008141) + ...
0.008141
=
1 − 0.858372
= 0.057482 ≈ 0.0575

Qbhf!51!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)(i)
2
( 0.7 ) = 0.49

(a)(ii)
2 ( 0.3)( 0.7 ) = 0.42

(a)(iii)
2
( 0.3) = 0.09

(b)
Expected number
= 0.49 ( n − 2 ) + 0.42n + 0.09 ( n + 2 )
= n − 0.8

(c)
The required probability
= P ( 9 L ) + P (1W 10 L )
9 10
= ( 0.7 ) + C19 ( 0.3)( 0.7 )
≈ 0.1166

(d)
The required probability
9
2 ( 0.3)( 0.7 )( 0.7 )
=
0.1166
= 0.1453

Qbhf!52!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
P ( Fails to win any cash prize )
= P ( three '10' ) + P ( two '10 ' and one '30' )
3 2
 6  3  6 
=   _ C13   
 10   10  10 
27
=
50

(b)
The required probability
= P ( one '10' and two '30' ) + P ( three '30' ) + P ( one '10' and one '50' and one '30' )
+ P ( two '10' and one '50' )
2 3 2
 6  3   3   6  3   1   6 1
= C    +   + ( 3!)      + C13    
3
1
 10  10   10   10  10   10   10   10 
81
=
200

(c)
The required probability
27 81
1− −
= 50 200 = 11
27 92
1−
50

(d)
11
P (Y = $500 ) =
200
81
P (Y = $100 ) =
200
27
P (Y = $0 ) =
50
11 81
Expected value = 500 × + 100 × = $68
200 200

Qbhf!53!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
Let S be the event that Tom will leave an umbrella in the restaurant on a certain day.
R be the event that it will be raining at 7am on a certain day.
P(S) = P ( S ∩ R ) + P ( S ∩ R )
= 0.3(1)(1 − 0.77)(0.3) + (1 − 0.3)(0.25)(1 − 0.1)(0.3)
= 0.06795

(b)
P( R ∩ S ) 0.0207 46
Probability = P( R S ) = = = = 0.3046
P( S ) 0.06795 151

(c)
46
P(E1 ) =
151
From (a), P ( E2 ) = P ( S ) = 0.06795
From (b), P ( E1 ∩ E2 ) = P ( R ∩ S ) = 0.0207
46
P(E1 ) P ( E2 ) =× 0.06795 = 0.0207 = P ( E1 ∩ E2 )
151
∴ the two events are independent.

(d)
P(Tom will leave more than one umbrella)
= 1 − P (Tom will leave no umbrella) − P(Tom will leave one umbrella)
= 1 − (1 − 0.06795)5 − C15 (0.06795)(1 − 0.06795) 4
≈ 0.04021

Qbhf!54!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
Let D be the event that a device is defective.
EP , EQ , ER be the event that a device is produced by P, Q and R respectively.
2 x + y + 3 y = 100
x + 2 y = 50 --------(1)
P(D) = 0.13
3 x + 4 y = 130 ---------(2)
Solve (1) and (2):
x = 30, y = 10

(b)
P ( ER ∩ D ) 0.6 × 0.15 9
P ( ER D ) = = =
P( D) 0.13 13

(c)(i)
Let X be the no. of defectives in the sample.
P ( X ≥ 3)
= 1 − P ( X = 0) − P ( X = 1) − P ( X = 2)
= 1 − (1 − 0.13)10 − C110 (0.13)(1 − 0.13)9 − C210 (0.13) 2 (1 − 0.13)8
= 0.1308

(c)(ii)
The required probability
10! 4 2 4
= ( 0.6 ) ( 0.1) ( 0.3)
4!4!2!
= 0.03307

(c)(iii)
The required probability
3 4 3 2 3
= C14 ( 0.15 )( 0.85 ) C12 ( 0.1)( 0.9 )( 0.9 ) + C14 ( 0.15 )( 0.85 ) ( 0.9 ) C14 ( 0.1)( 0.9 )
= 0.1305

Qbhf!55!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

1
a) Mean = ≈ 2.63 ≈ 3
0.38

7 2
b) Prob required = C79 ( 0.38 ) ( 0.62 ) ( 0.38 ) = 0.006017

c) (i)Mean = 12(0.38) ≈ 5

(ii) 1 – P(no chocolate) = 1 – P(3S or 2S or 1S or 0S)

= 1 − C 312 (0.38) (0.62) − C 212 (0.38) (0.62) − C112 (0.38)(0.62) − (0.62)
3 9 2 10 11 12

= 1 − 0.2704 = 0.7296
iii) P(4S8G or 5S7G or 6S6G)
= C 412 (0.38) (0.62) + C 512 (0.38) (0.62) + C 612 (0.38) (0.62)
4 8 5 7 6 6

= 0.6044
0.6044
iv) Prob required = = 0.8284
0.7296
ci) Prob required = (0.7296 ) = 0.5323
2

Prob required = C12 (0.7296 )(0.62 ) = 0.0047

12
ii)

Qbhf!56!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) Probability of acceptance, p a = (1 − 0.035)

8

= 0.7520 1A
Probability of rejection, p r = 1 − Pa
= 0.2480
The third box being rejected = = (0.7520) 2 (0.2480) = 0.1402

(b) Let X be the number of boxes inspected by Edwin in a week, then

X ~ Geom ( p r ) 1M
1
∴ Mean = −1 1A
pr
= 3.0 1A

(c) Prob that Edwin can achieve her target,

p i = P (All boxes are acceptable) +
P (exactly 1 boxes is not acceptable) +
P (exactly 2 boxes are not acceptable) + 1M
P (exactly 3 boxes are not acceptable)
= ( p a ) + C118 p r ( p a ) + C 219 ( p r ) ( p a ) + C 320 ( p r ) ( p a )
18 18 2 18 3 18
1M+1A
= 0.1974 1A
If Edwin can achieve his target, the prob. that he needs to
( p a )18 + C118 ( p r )( p a )18
inspect less than 20boxes only = 1M+1A
pi
= 0.1637

(d) (1 − r % )8 ≥ 0.9 1M
r % ≤ 0.013084
r ≤ 1.3084
∴ The greatest acceptable value of r is 1.3084. 1A

Qbhf!57!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
Let T1 and T2 (in minutes) denote the journey times required for Routes R1 and R2
respectively.
T1 ~ N (27 , 10)
T2 = T3 + T4 ,
Where T3 (in minutes) = time taken for Siu Ming to walk from Central
Station to Hong Kong Station,
T4 (in minutes) = journey time from Hong Kong Station to Lai King
Station

T3 = 5
T4 ~ N(14 , 16)
T2 ~ N(5 + 14, 16)
T2 ~ N(19 , 16)
∴ T2 follows a normal distribution with mean 19 minutes and standard deviation
4 minutes.

(b)
T2 – T1 ~ N(19 – 27, 10 + 16)
T2 – T1 ~ N(– 8, 26)
P(T2 – T1 > 0)
0 − (−8)
= P(Z > )
26
≈ P( Z > 1.5689)
≈ 0.0582

Qbhf!58!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

Let X be the score of the alcohol test

(a) (i) P(classify as drunken driver non-drunken driver)
(
= P X > 68 X ~ N 56,6 2( ))
 68 − 56 
= P Z >  1A
 6 
= P (Z > 2 )
= 0.5 − 0.4772
= 0.0228 1A
(ii) P(classify as non-drunken driver drunken driver)
(
= P X < 68 X ~ N 75,5 2( ))
 68 − 75 
= P Z <  1A
 5 
= P(Z < −1.4)
= 0.5 − 0.4192
= 0.0808 1A
(b) The probability that out of 12 drunken drivers, not more than 2 will be
misclassified
= (1 − 0.0808) + C112 (0.0808)(1 − 0.0808) + C 212 (0.0808) (1 − 0.0808)
12 11 2 10
2M
12 3 9
+C (0.0808) (1 − 0.0808)
3

= 0.9876 1A
(c) Let x0 be the required critical value of score.
( ( ))
P X > x0 X ~ N 56,6 2 = 0.005
 x − 56 
P Z > 0  = 0.005 1A
 6 
x0 − 56
= 2.575 1M
6
x0 = 71.45 1A
(d) If a drunken driver is classified by the technician, then
P(classify as non-drunken driver drunken driver)
( (
= P X < 71.45 X ~ N 75,5 2 )) 1M
= P(Z < −0.71)
= 0.5 − 0.2611
= 0.2389
∴ P(misclassified) = (0.005)(0.92) + (0.2389)(0.08) 1M
= 0.0237 1A
If a driver is classified by the chief, then
P(misclassified) = (0.0228)(0.92) + (0.0808)(0.08)= 0.0274 1A
∵ 0.0274 > 0.0237
∴ The probability of drivers misclassified by the chief is greater than
that by the technician. 1

Qbhf!59!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

c1 − 504
(a) ∵ P(Z < ) = 0.975 …1M
5
c − 504
∴ 1 = 1.96 …1A
5
∴c1 = 513.8 …1A

c 2 − 525
(b) ∵ P ( Z < ) = 0.004 …1M
6
c − 525
∴ 2 = −2.65 …1A
6
∴c 2 = 509.1 …1A

(c) Given that the cup of coke is filled by machine A, the required probability is
P(c1 > X and X > c 2 )
= P (509.1 < X < 513.8) …1M
509.1 − 504 513.8 − 504
= P( <Z< ) …1M
5 5
= P (1.02 < Z < 1.96)
= 0.4750 − 0.3461 …1M
= 0.1289 …1A

(d) P ( X < c3 where σ = 5, µ = 504) = P ( X ≥ c3 where σ = 6, µ = 525)

c3 − 504 c − 525
i.e. =− 3 …1M+1A
5 6
c3 = 513.5455 …1A

(e) The probability would be minimized if µ is in the middle of the 2 limits,

510 + 530
i.e. µ = …1M
2
= 520 …1A

Qbhf!5:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
P(number of people > 2)
e −10100 e −10101 e −10102
= 1− − −
0! 1! 2! 2M
≈ 0.997231 = 0.9972 1A

(b)
P(T < 2) = 0.4013
2−µ 1M
P( Z < ) = 0.4013
σ
2−µ
= −0.25......(1)
σ
P(2 ≤ T < 4) = 0.3721
P(T < 4) = 0.3721 + 0.4013 = 0.7734
1M
4−µ
P( Z < ) = 0.7734
σ
4−µ
= 0.75......(2)
σ
Solving (1) and (2),
σ =2 1A
µ = 2.5 1A

Qbhf!61!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(c)
p
= P(4 ≤ T < 6)
4 − 2.5 6 − 2.5 1M
= P( ≤T < )
2 2
= 0.4599 − 0.2734
= 0.1865 1A
q
= P(6 ≤ T < 8)
6 − 2.5 8 − 2.5 1M
= P( ≤T < )
2 2
= 0.4970 − 0.4599
= 0.0371 1A

(d)
The required probability
= P (T ≥ 6 s | T > 2 s )
P (T ≥ 6 s ∩ T > 2 s )
=
P (T > 2 s ) 1M
P (T ≥ 6 s )
=
P (T > 2 s ) 1M
0.0371 + 0.0030
=
1 − 0.4013 1M
≈ 0.066978 = 0.0670 1A

Qbhf!62!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

Let X ~ N(20, 52) be the length of time spent on searching the photo
(a) The required probability
= P( X > 22) × 0.9
22 − 20
= P(Z > ) × 0.9 1M
5
= P ( Z > 0.4) × 0.9
= (0.5 − 0.1554) × 0.9
= 0.31014 1A
(b) The required probability
= P( X < 16)(0.4) + P(16 ≤ X ≤ 22)(0.75) + P( X > 22)(0.9) 1M
= (0.5 − 0.2881)(0.4) + (0.2881 + 0.1554)(0.75) + (0.3446)(0.9) 1M
≈ 0.727525
= 0.7275 1A
(c) The required probability
(0.5 − 0.2881)(0.4)
= 2M
0.727525
≈ 0.116504587
= 0.1165 1A
(d) The required probability
= C25 (1 − 0.7275)2 (0.7275)3 1M
≈ 0.285911752
= 0.2859 1A
(e) The required probability
C 5 (0.2119 × 0.6) 2 (0.7275)3
= 2 2M
0.285911752
≈ 0.217686452
= 0.2177 1A
(f) Let µ be the new mean
P( X < 16) ≤ 0.025
16 − µ
P( Z < ) ≤ 0.025 1M
5
16 − µ
≤ −1.96
5
µ ≥ 25.80
Hence the least value of new mean is 25.80 hours. 1A

Qbhf!63!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
P(number of customers < 5)
e−6 60 e −6 61 e−6 62 e −6 63 e−6 64
= − − − −
0! 1! 2! 3! 4!
≈ 0.2850565 = 0.2581
(b)
P( X > 100) = 0.0026
100 − µ
P( Z > ) = 0.0026
12.5
100 − µ
= 2.80
12.5
µ = 65

P(Can kiss dick hui)

= P(Customer have more than or equal to 2 stickers)
= P( X ≥ 50)
50 − 65
= P( Z ≥ )
12.5
P( Z ≥ −1.2) = 0.5 + 0.3849 = 0.8849
(c)
The required probability
= (1 − 0.8849)4 0.8849
= 0.000155308
(d)(i)
The required probability
= (1 − 0.8849)3 + C32 (1 − 0.8849) 2 0.8849
≈ 0.036694338
0.0366943
(d)(ii)
The required probability
e −6 63 e −6 6 4
(0.0366943) + [(1 − 0.8849) 4 + C34 (1 − 0.8849)3 0.8849]
= 3! 4!
0.2850565
0.003274418 + (0.133852617)0.005572854
=
0.2850565
= 0.014103727 ≈ 0.0141

Qbhf!64!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
Let µ and σ be the mean and standard deviation of the weight of the people.
P( X < 60.6) = 0.166
60.6 − µ
P( Z < ) = 0.166
σ
60.6 − µ
= −0.97
σ
µ − 0.97σ − 60.6 = 0.............................(1)
P( X > 103.8) = 0.117
103.8 − µ
P( Z > ) = 0.117
σ
103.8 − µ
= 1.19
σ
µ + 1.19σ − 103.8 = 0............................(2)
By solving (1) and (2),
µ = 80 and σ = 20

P( X > 100)
100 − 80
= P( Z > )
20
= P( Z > 1)
= 0.1587
(b)
P( X < 75)
75 − 80
= P( Z < )
20
= P( Z < −0.25)
= 0.4013

The required probability

= 0.4013 × 0.1 + 0.1587 × 0.3 + (1 − 0.4013 − 0.1587) × 0.2
= 0.17574

Qbhf!65!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(c)(i)
Mean of weight = 80
Standard Deviation of weight = 20
Mean of charges = 400 + 20(80) = 2000
Standard Deviation of charges = 20(20) = 400

(c)(ii)
P(Heart Disease) = 0.17574
The required probability
= C35 0.175743 (1 − 0.17574) 2
= 0.036876
≈ 0.0369

(c)(iii)
2400 = 400 + 20 x
x = 100
∴ When the person uses more than $2400, his weight is greater than 100kg.

P(A person have heart disease and less than 100 kg)
= 0.4013 × 0.1 + 0.44 × 0.2
= 0.12813
P(A person does not have heart disease and less than 100 kg)
= 0.4013 × 0.9 + 0.44 × 0.8
= 0.71317

The required probability

P(exactly 3 person have heart disease and no one is greater than 100kg)
=
P(exactly 3 person have heart disease)
C35 0.128133 (0.71317)2
=
0.036876
0.010699
=
0.036876
= 0.290131 ≈ 0.2901

Qbhf!66!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a) Let X be the number of birthday cakes sold in a day. Also let λ be the sample
mean of the number of computers sold in a day.

0(5) + 1(13) + 2(15) + 3(10) + 4(5) + 5(2)

λ= = 2.06
50
For the Poisson distribution,
a = 50 P( X = 2)
 e − 2.06 2.06 2 
= 50 
 2! 
= 13.52
For the binomial distribution,
10 p = 2.06
p = 0.206
b = 50 P ( X = 1)
= 50C110 (0.206)(1 − 0.206) 9
= 12.92

(b) For the number of cakes sold is 6 or more, the expected number of days by the
Poisson distribution is

50 – (6.37 + 13.13 + 13.52 + 9.28 + 4.78 + 1.97) = 0.95

Let SE1 be the sum of errors for model fitted by the Poisson distribution. So,
SE1
=| 5 − 6.37 | + | 13 − 13.13 | + | 15 − 13.52 | + | 10 − 9.28 | + | 5 − 4.78 | + | 2 − 1.97 | + | 0 − 0.95 |
= 4 .9

For the number of cakes sold is 6 or more, the expected number of days by the
binomial distribution is

50 – (4.98 + 12.92 + 15.08 + 10.44 + 4.74 + 1.48) = 0.36

Let SE2 be the sum of errors for model fitted by the binomial distribution. So,

SE 2
=| 5 − 4.98 | + | 13 − 12.92 | + | 15 − 15.08 | + | 10 − 10.44 | + | 5 − 4.74 | + | 2 − 1.48 | + | 0 − 0.36 |
= 1.76

Since SE 2 < SE1 , the binomial distribution fits data better.

Qbhf!67!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(c) (i) Let Y kg be the weight of the birthday cake. Then, Y ~ N(1.8, 0.252)
The required probability
P(Y > 2.18)
2.18 − 1.8
= P(Z > )
0.25
= P( Z > 1.52)
= 0.5 − 0.4357
= 0.0643

(ii) The required probability

= C 410 (0.206) 4 (1 − 0.206) 6 × C 24 (0.0643) 2 (1 − 0.0643) 2
≈ 0.002058058
= 0.0021

The required probability

4.74
= × C 24 (0.0643) 2 (1 − 0.0643) 2
50
≈ 0.00205899
= 0.0021

Qbhf!68!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
Poisson distribution Binomial distribution
Frequency: e −0.8 0.8 x 60 ⋅ C x5 (0.16) (0.84)
x 5− x
60 ⋅
x!
Missing values: 21.57……1A 23.90……1A
8.63……..1A 1.73…….1A

(b) The maximum error for Po ( 0.8 ) is 2.43 while that for B(5,0.16 ) is 0.27.
The binomial distribution is better. 1A

(c) (i) The probability of getting at least 1 stamp in a pack of the chocolate
= 1 − (1 − 0.16 )
5
1M
= 0.5818 1A

(ii) The probability of getting at least 1 stamp in buying not more than 4 packs
= p1 + (1 − p1 ) p1 + (1 − p1 ) p1 + (1 − p1 ) p1
2 3
2M
= 0.5818 + (1 − 0.5818)0.5818 + (1 − 0.5818) 0.5818 + (1 − 0.5818) 3 0.5818
2

= 0.9694 1A

(iii) The probability of getting exactly 4 stamps in 2 boxes with stamps

= 2 C15 ( 0.16 )( 0.84 ) C35 ( 0.16 ) ( 0.84 )  + C25 ( 0.16 ) ( 0.84 ) C25 ( 0.16 ) ( 0.84 )
4 3 2 2 3 2 3
 
= 0.046045336 3M

The probability of getting stamps in both boxes in buying two boxes

2
= p1 1M
= 0.33849124
p
The required conditional probability = 2 1M
p3
0.046045336
=
0.33849124
= 0.1360

Qbhf!69!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

a) (i)
Number of Po(4) Po(5)
desktop Observed
Expected* Expected*
computer Frequency Probability Probability
Frequency Frequency
sold
0 2 0.0183 1.8 0.0067 0.7
1 7 0.0733 7.3 0.0337 3.4
2 15 0.1465 14.7 0.0842 8.4
3 19 0.1954 19.5 0.1404 14.0
4 20 0.1954 19.5 0.1755 17.6
5 16 0.1563 15.6 0.1755 17.6
6 or more 21 0.2148 21.5 0.3840 38.3
* Correct to 1 decimal place
2M + 3A 1M for Expected Frequency
1M for Probability
1A + 1A for the 2 pairs of data
1A for all being correct
(ii) Po(4) fits the data better. 1A

(b) (i) Let X be the number of desktop computers sold,

then X ~ Po(4)
P(X = 1) = 0.0733 1M+1A

(ii) Let Y be the number of days that no d.c. will be sold, then
Y ~ B(10, 0.0733) 1M
P (Y = 4) = C 410 (0.0733) (1 − 0.0733)
4 6
1M
= 0.0038 1A

(c) P(3 items sold)

= P(3 d.c. sold) + P(2 d.c. and 1 n.c. sold)
+ P(1 d.c. and 2 d.c. sold) + P(3 n.c. sold) 1M
= 0.1954 × 0.0067 + 0.1465 × 0.0337 + 0.0733 × 0.0842 + 0.0183 × 0.1404 1M+1M
= 0.0150

Qbhf!6:!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(a)
sample mean = 0.367
2A
sample variance = 0.368
Poisson distribution fits the results because sample mean is approximately equal to
the sample variance. 1A
泊松分佈符合結果，因為樣本平均值大約等於樣本方差。

(b)
Number of Observed Expected Absolute
smokers frequency frequency discrepancy
煙民數目 觀察頻數 預期頻數 絕對差異
0 104 103.921 0.079
1 38 38.139 0.139
2 7 6.999 0.001
3 1 0.856 0.144
Total 總數 150
2A
The absolute discrepancy of >3 smokers is 0.85.
Since the maximum absolute discrepancy = 0.144 < 0.4, this model can be
accepted.
> 3 名煙民的絕對誤差為 0.85。由於最大絕對差異 = 0.144 < 0.4，這個模擬
可以被接受。 1M + 1A

(c)(i)
P(male) = 0.6
1A
P(2 male) = 0.6 2 = 0.36
(c)(ii)
P(at least 1 male)
= P(1 male) + P(2 male)
1M + 1A
= C12 (0.6)(0.4) + 0.6 2
= 0.84
(d)(i)
P(2 smokers and both male)
= P(2 smokers) P(both male | 2 smokers)
6.999 2
= 0.6
150
= 0.0167976
1A
≈ 0.0168

Qbhf!71!
Suggested Solution – Ultimate Training

(d)(ii)
P(3 smokers and 2 male)
= P(3 smokers) P(2 male | 3 smokers)
0.856 3 2
= C2 0.6 (0.4)
150
1M
= 0.002465
1A
≈ 0.0025
(d)(iii)
P(2 smokers and 2 male| less than 3 smokers)
P((2 smokers and 2 male) and (less than 3 smokers))
=
P(less than 3 smokers)
P(2 smokers and 2 male)
=
P (less than 3 smokers)
0.0167976
= 1M
 103.921 + 38.139 + 6.999 
 
 150 
≈ 0.016904
1A
= 0.0169

Qbhf!72!