Daily DAX The Fed is split, it seems -- opinions differ among the FX illuminati as to whether the ECB or the

or the Fed will raise more

. aggressively. With QEII ending in June, things could get interesting with the USD across the board. The consensus is
Journal that USD-denominated assets will look more attractive.
08 Apr 2011 Range studies: Aggressive 127; conservative 55; Extreme estimate H 7350 L 7100 Calendar: ECB, BoE rate decisions

FDAX June 2011

Trade ideas:
Aggressive range H
Short -- On a break below 7220. Wait for a
pullback and short a failure. Target 7180.
Short -- On a failure below 7260, target New development emerging?
7220 and then 7180, depending on the
price action. Conservative range H
Long -- On a push above 7260. Wait for a
pullback and target 7280 or 7300,
depending on price action.

As always, keep CL, ES and 6E price action

in view. Wait for signal and volume
confirmation.

Conservative range L

Aggressive range L

Unfilled runaway gap may be filled in the next 6 trading days. (35% prob.)

Thursday's focus: Today's breakout suggests a retest of the early March consolidation high of 7381. Should interest rates
surprise, or other data come into focus (like another of the PIGS asking for more aid), a range extension to this level is likely. The
aggressive range estimate falls short, but I'll will be watching closely. Next stop is 7470. There are a number of events taking place
in the markets. QEII is ending in June, which should support USD and USD-denominated assets. On the other hand, a lot of people
have been talking about the anticipated rate hikes from the ECB -- the Fed is expected to lag behind. May be a slow market until
the rate decisions come out. This is the first trading plan I've put together in about six months, so I really don't have any
expectations.

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.
 Range Studies for DAX 0910 Monday, 09 August 2010
Previous day range 87.0 Comments:
Previous day pattern WS 1241 GMT: The opening range was entirely outside of the value area, and in the middle
Number of occurrences 97 of the opening range. This suggests to me a good chance for a new development above
7220 -- and if that level proves weak, price will likely push lower to 7200. (A good
(last 200 days)
intraday short opportunity?) Depending on where DAX opens, I may have to reevaluate
Avg range after WS 79.8% my plans. Gaps can invalidate one side of my trading plan, and sometimes both.
> 69.5 <
Prob of expansion → 24.7% Prob of contraction → 67.0% Prob of duplication → 8.2%
Projected expansion 127.0 Projected contraction 55.0 Projected duplication 86.0
( 146.0% ) ( 63.0% ) ( 98.9% )
Daily range studies Volume studies Time, price and event
3 days 64.7 Value area high 7261.0 Aggressive range est. 127.0
10 days 91.0 Point of control 7238.0 Conservative range est. 55.0
20 days 129.5 Value area low 7220.0 Aggressive range H 7350.0
50 days 110.3 Opening range 11.5 Conservative range H 7290.0
10 day max range 174.5 Initial balance 24.0 Today's H range est. 7315.0
10 day min range 38.0 R2 high vol node n/a 0.70 Today's L range est. 7165.0
3/10 0.71 R1 high vol node 7238.5 0.80 Conservative range L 7175.0
10 day true high 7262.5 Pvt high vol node 7200.0 1.00 Aggressive range L 7105.0
5 day true high 7262.5 S1 high vol node 7173.0 1.20 3 day range pivot 7205.0
Yesterday's high 7262.5 S2 high vol node 7123.0 0.85 18 February swing high 7441.0
Yesterday's low 7175.5 6D VAH 7262.5 01 March cons. high 7383.0
5 day true low 7056.0 6D VPOC 7200.0 16 March swing low 6435.0
10 day true low 6805.5 6D VAL 7120.0
Yesterday's settlement 7236.5 3 day vol avg 108.9 BoE rate decision High
Previous settlement 7198.5 10 day vol avg 119.7 ECB rate decision High
10 day range position 0.94 20 day vol avg 155.3

Calendar GMT Area Event Mkt Risk Exp Prev Remarks

Thursday * JP BoJ rate decision JPY Med 0.10 0.10 JPY Pairs
0130 AU Au employment (Mar) AUD High 24K -8.6K
1000 EU Ger industrial production (YoY) DAX Med 13.2% 12.5% May impact euro. Watch ESX
1100 UK BoE rate decision GBP High 0.50% 0.50% DNT, FTSE may react
UK Asset purchase target GBP Med 200B 200B FTSE may react
1145 EU ECB rate decision Ccy High 1.25% 1.00% All currencies, indices
1900 US Consumer credit ES Med 4.6B 5.01B Effect mild, if no data surprise
2350 JP Trade balance (Feb) JPY Med 746.9B 394.5B CL, USD, euro

This is a work in progress. If you would like to Jay Schneider -- FX and futures, range studies
exchange ideas, or can lend a helping hand, San Diego Area, USA
Email
please contact me --> Blog

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.