1.1.1.1.

Renewable power Demand in Delhi

Various state regulators have mandated a minimum percentage of total
consumption by Power Utilities from renewable power, thereby, creating demand for
renewable power. As per the prevalent market practice, the Renewable Purchase
Obligation (RPO) for states, stipulated by various SERCs, may vary from 1% to 14%.
The demand is only expected to increase in coming years so the SERCs either raise
or at least maintain their current RPOs. Although DERC has, by now, only stipulated
the RPO obligation for various DISCOMs operating in state of Delhi which stands at
1% of total demand; it is expected that DERC would come up with detailed
regulations pertaining to renewable power as per prevalent market practice.

Based on the likely demand of power in Delhi by 2012 at 36293 TWh, at 52762 TWh
for 2017; and around at 73481 TWh during 2022 (as per 17th Electric Power Survey)
and target RPO, the projected demand of renewable power is likely to be as under:
Table 1: Projected Renewable Power Demand: Delhi

Fiscal Demand RPO (in MU) RPO ( in Installed Renewable

Year (GW) Capacity)# Demand
(GW)
2012 5.71 1.00% 3.2% 0.18
2017 8.30 2.5%* 8.0% 0.66
2022 11.55 5.0%* 16.0% 1.85
* RPO for the year 2012 has been assumed at the same level as that of 2011 as
stipulated by DERC while that for 2017 and 2022 has been assumed to update

# Considering average PLF for Renewable Power Plants at 25% as against 80% for
conventional Power plants, the actual RPO in terms of plant capacity is likely to be
3.2 times the RPO in terms of energy units (MU). The 25% PLF for Renewable Plants
has been obtained based on the weighted average estimate of current installed
capacity.

The above demand for Renewable Power in Delhi is assuming a low RPO scenario
especially considering the current RPOs for certain states in the range of 10-14%. If
GoI stipulates a mandatory 10% from Renewable Power at the national level by
2017, the pressure on utilities in Delhi for Renewable Power shall be huge and in
absence of capacity or long term contracts there shall be need to depend on market
regulated REC mechanism. It thus makes sense for players in Power Sector in Delhi
to focus on Renewable Power by exploiting possible avenue in Delhi and
neighbouring states.

1.1.1.2. Solar power Demand in Delhi

DERC has not stipulated any Solar purchase Obligation for the utilities in the state
as yet. However considering the potential of Solar Rooftop in Delhi and potential of
Utility Scale Power plants in neighbouring states it makes sense for DERC to
stipulate a large percentage of Renewable Purchase Obligation from Solar power.
The Solar power Industry in India is at a nascent stage and faces issue of high costs
hence for FY 2012 the Solar Purchase Obligation (SPO) is only assumed at 30% of
RPO but for the percentage has been gradually increased to 70% by 2022 with
balance being met through other sources such as MSW etc. The likely solar capacity
required to meet solar purchase obligation would be as under:
Table 2: Projected Solar power Demand: Delhi

Fiscal Year Renewable SPO (% of RPO) Solar Power

Demand (GW)* Demand (GW)
2012 0.18 30% 0.05
2017 0.66 50% 0.33
2022 1.85 70% 1.29
*From the analysis above