Q UA R T E R LY R E V I E W N o.

3 2 / J u l y 2 0 0 9

Current Status and Future Issues of Volcanic Eruption

Prediction Research
Eisuke Fujita
Affiliated Fellow

detection capabilities thanks to recent volcano

1 Introduction observation networks, and effective evacuation and
other measures taken once abnormalities have been
detected.
Japan is located in an area where the Pacific plate Compared to earthquake prediction, volcanic
and the Philippine plate subduct below the Eurasian eruption predictions are relatively easier to make.
plate. As part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, Japan is one Of the five elements of prediction—when, where,
of the most noted volcanic countries in the world. how large, what kind and until when—in terms of
Japan has 108 active volcanoes, which are defined “where,” volcanoes, especially in the early stages of
by international standards as volcanoes that have activity, have the advantage that, in a broad sense,
erupted approximately within the past 10,000 years their spatial location is known. Since volcanic activity
or those that are currently in active fumarolic activity is associated with magma movement, the “when”
(Figure 1). During quiet times, volcanoes bring element can also be known to a certain extent by
about numerous blessings by allowing agricultural capturing precursory phenomena such as volcanic
produce to grow and providing tourism resources earthquakes prior to the eruption. In recent years,
such as hot springs, thus providing a livelihood for precise observations have enabled abnormalities to
nearby residents. However, once an eruption occurs,
it can lead to enormous disasters. Volcanic disasters
are complex disasters caused by various factors, in
contrast with earthquake disasters, which are mainly
caused by tremors (Table 1).
In Japan’s recorded history, there have been at least
30 volcanic disasters involving human damage. The
greatest damage came in 1792 with the eruption of the
Unzen volcano, Fugen-dake, in which an avalanche
triggered a tsunami that killed some 15,000 people.
In recent years, 43 people were killed in 1991 by
pyroclastic flows following yet another eruption of the
Unzen volcano, Fugen-dake. However, recent volcanic
disasters involve far less extensive human damage
compared to the Edo Period and earlier. This is due to
the fortunate fact that Japan’s last few major eruptions
occurred more than a couple hundred years ago, such
as the Houei eruption of Mt. Fuji in 1707, the Tenmei
eruption of Mt. Asama in 1783 and the 1792 eruption
of Mt. Unzen and the subsequent collapse of Mayu- Figure 1 : Distribution map of active volcanoes in Japan

yama. Another reason is the improved abnormality Prepared by the STFC based on Reference[1]

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 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

Table 1 : Volcanic disaster classifications

Factors that cause damage Volcanic activity

● Ash falls and cinders

● Pyroclastic flows
● Lava flows
　Direct damage due to volcanic ejecta ● Blasts
● Air vibrations
● Volcanic gas
● Volcanic mudflow (First lahar)

● Avalanche
● Crustal deformation
Damage due to terrestrial phenomena caused
● Volcanic earthquakes
by volcanic activity
● Geothermal heat
● Tsunami

● Mudflows and debris flows

　Indirect damage ● Slope failures
● Landslides (Second lahar)

Prepared by the STFC

Volcanology Volcano disaster prevention

Volcano simulation
Versatility

Eruption-related information
Estimation
Successful volcanic
eruption predictions
Volcano observation data

Eruption scenarios
Theoretical models
of volcanic eruption

Volcano hazard maps

phenomenon

Disaster psychology
Disaster medicine
Volcanic disaster prevention
engineering
Verification
Volcanic phenomenon and material
Individuality

experiments
Volcano database

Basic research Practical application

Figure 2 : Volcanology and volcano disaster prevention concepts

Prepared by the STFC

be detected and even information of an imminent an “attempted eruption.” Also, in Mt. Fuji, deep low-
eruption can be transmitted. Basically, predictions of frequency seismic activity increased in 2000–2001
several hours to several days in advance are possible, and, while it did not culminate in an eruption, the
although they depend on magma property and vent event led to the realization that an eruption of Mt. Fuji
stability. Notable examples include the 1986 eruption was a realistic possibility and raised awareness of the
of Izu-Oshima, the 1989 volcanic activity in the east need for disaster-prevention measures.
coast of the Izu Peninsula and the 2000 eruptions of On the other hand, however, it is difficult to obtain
Mt. Usu and Miyake-jima, in which prior earthquake accurate information about “when the eruption will
swarms and crustal deformations were detected and end.” The 2000 eruption of Miyake-jima experienced
this information was utilized in evacuation activities. phenomena that had never before been observed in
In 1998, Mt. Iwate provided a valuable experience the world, such as the first caldera formation in 2,500
when fumarolic and seismic activities pointed to a years and prolonged volcanic gas emissions; and while
possible eruption but ended in a non-eruption—or prior magma activity was captured, it was difficult to

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 Q UA R T E R LY R E V I E W N o. 3 2 / J u l y 2 0 0 9
predict progressions in volcanic activity. This eruption
highlighted the fact that volcanic eruption predictions
have depended largely on past experiences. Regarding
magma activity, which is the root of volcanic activity,
some knowledge has been gained about magma
chambers at depths of up to 10 kilometers, but there is
no information available for deeper magma chambers,
particularly those at depths of around 20 kilometers or
more. The lack of information about magma supply
mechanisms at greater depths has made it difficult to
predict volcanic activity progression.
In order to successfully predict volcanic eruptions,
it is necessary to establish a theoretical model that
describes volcanic-eruption phenomena accurately.
A theoretical model that describes phenomena from
magma ascent to eruption with greater accuracy
can be established by shedding light on the eruption
mechanism. This can be achieved by facilitating
mutual feedback between data obtained from volcano
observations, which serve as the basis of all research,
and theoretical models of volcanic activity. Techniques
such as experiments and simulations will be used. The
use of theoretical models established in such a way
would enable predictions of future volcanic eruptions
and, as a result, allow practical applications to volcanic
disaster prevention measures such as providing
eruption information. Additionally, successful
volcanic disaster prevention requires not only the
advancement of volcanology, but aspects of disaster
psychology, medical sociology, and volcanic disaster
prevention engineering also need to be developed in a
comprehensive manner.
Volcanic er uption prediction research is
conducted based on feedback from an academic
aspect of shedding light on the mechanisms of
nature as well as an administrative aspect of
contributing to volcanic disaster prevention for a
safer society and life (Figure 2). In the chapters
that follow, volcanic eruption prediction research
will be discussed from a scientific perspective,
and issues regarding volcanic disaster prevention
measures that put the research findings to practical
use will be addressed.
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2 D ev elopm ents in v olc a n i c
eruption prediction research in
Japan
2-1 What is volcanic eruption prediction
research?
The objective of volcanic eruption prediction
research is to predict the five elements of eruption: its
timing, location, magnitude, type and progression.
The development of eruption prediction research can
be largely divided into three stages.[2]
● Development Stage 1
Abnormalities in volcanic activity can be
detected from volcano observations.
● Development Stage 2
The causes of the abnormalities can be
estimated from volcano observations and past
experiences.
● Development Stage 3
Pre d ic t ions can be made by apply i ng
observation results to the identified laws of
physics that govern volcanic phenomena.
Looking at research on the timing of eruption,
various time scales exist, ranging from eruption
records covering tens of thousands of years to
hundreds of thousands of years, to those covering
the period immediately before the eruption. Roughly
speaking, it can be divided into long-term prediction
(risk assessment) and imminent prediction.
Long-term prediction (risk assessment) aims to achieve
long-term stability of livelihoods and coexistence in
volcanic areas through land use planning, construction
of mudflow control dams, and other means. It includes
assessments for the installation of nuclear facilities and
geological disposal of radioactive material. For long-
term prediction, it is necessary to determine the eruption
history. To this end, analyses of rock materials from
distribution surveys of volcanic ash and other ejecta, as
well as from trench and boring surveys, are conducted.
The results are put together in a staircase diagram
(Figure 3) of eruption records. In staircase diagrams,
the horizontal axis represents time and the vertical axis
represents accumulated ejecta volume, and the interval
between volcanic activities, as well as the magnitude of
each volcanic activity, can be identified.
 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
4.5
Izu-Oshima tephra
Accumulated ejecta volume(1012kg)
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
0 500
Figure 3 : Staircase diagram example showing eruption record (Volcanic ash
volume ejected from Izu-Oshima volcano over the past 2,000 years)
In contrast, imminent prediction is based on volcano
observation data. In volcano observations, data are
basically accumulated from continuous physical
observations of earthquakes, crustal deformation,
gravity, magnetic force and electromagnetic fields,
as well as chemical observations of volcanic gas,
water, and more. When fluctuations different from
normal times are detected in the data, the possibility
of eruption is considered based on a comprehensive
evaluation. However, no common or universal rule
has been found, as each volcano has different magma
properties and other characteristics. In reality, most
judgments depend largely on empirical cases, such as
past eruptions and abnormalities. The Coordinating
Committee for Prediction of Volcanic Eruptions, to
be described later, basically conducts short- and mid-
term volcanic activity assessments and, based on
various data, discusses issues related to forecasting the
volcanic activity progression following an eruption.
2-2 History of volcanic eruption prediction
research in Japan
The first volcano observation in Japan took place
in 1888, when observations of volcanic earthquakes
were made on Mt. Bandai[4]. Long-term seismic
observations were conducted following a major
eruption on July 25 of that year. The observation
was thus aimed at grasping the activities, rather than
predicting them. This was followed by temporary
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1000 1500 2000
Year
Prepared by the STFC based on Reference[3]
earthquake observations of the 1910 eruption of
Mt. Usu and, in the same year, Japan’s first regular
earthquake observation was conducted by the Japan
Meteorological Agency with respect to the eruption
of Mt. Asama. Observations were made on Yake-
dake in 1912 and Sakura-jima in 1914. During or
prior to World War II, the installation of a full-fledged
regular seismic observation network by the Japan
Meteorological Agency, other than the one at Mt.
Asama mentioned earlier, was limited to Mt. Aso
(1931), Izu-Oshima (1939) and Miyake-jima (1943).
After the war, observations took place at Mt. Usu and
Mt. Azuma (1950), Mt. Tarumae and Sakura-jima
(1951), Meakan-dake (1956), Tokachi-dake, Hokkaido
Komagatake, Unzen-dake, Nasu-dake and Mt.
Kirishima (1959). At present, there are as many as 34
constantly monitored volcanoes.
Meanwhile, volcano observations at universities
began in 1933 with the establishment of the Mt. Asama
volcano observatory by the University of Tokyo’s
Earthquake Research Institute. The observatory
produced findings on classifications and frequencies of
volcanic earthquakes, and led the way internationally
in the early stages of volcano observation. The move
was followed by Kyoto University (Mt. Aso, Sakura-
jima, etc.), Kyushu University (Unzen volcano Fugen-
dake, etc.), the Tokyo Institute of Technology (Mt.
Kusatsu-Shirane), Tohoku University (volcanoes in
northeastern Japan) and Hokkaido University (Mt.
 Q UA R T E R LY R E V I E W N o. 3 2 / J u l y 2 0 0 9

Usu and other volcanoes in Hokkaido).
Subsequently, the National Research Institute for
Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (Iwo Jima,
Mt. Fuji, etc.) and the Geographical Survey Institute
(crustal deformation observations, etc.) have also
conducted volcano observations aimed at predicting
volcanic eruptions. Thus, in the history of volcano
observations in Japan, the Japan Meteorological
Agency’s observation network has been supplemented
by observation networks and the expertise of
universities and research institutes, instead of a single
organization conducting volcano observations.
2-3 Eruption prediction programs in Japan
In Japan, the government’s guidelines for volcanic
eruption prediction are prepared by the Geodesy
Council’s Volcano Subcommittee, and projects are
implemented based on the guidelines. The guidelines
were first compiled in 1973.[4] The first eruption
prediction program, “Promotion of a volcanic eruption
prediction program” (proposal), was submitted by the
Geodesy Council’s Volcano Subcommittee on June 29,
1973, and, based on this proposal, the Coordinating
Committee for Prediction of Volcanic Eruptions, a
private advisory panel of the Japan Meteorological
Agency’s director-general, was launched on June 20,
1974, with the Japan Meteorological Agency serving
as the secretariat. The launch of the Coordinating
Committee helped to establish a cooperative
framework among relevant organizations, such as
information exchange related to volcanic activity and
measures to be taken in the event of a major eruption
(Figure 4).
Since then, seven volcanic eruption prediction
programs have been formulated and implemented,
each as a five-year program. The outline of each
eruption prediction program is shown in Table 2. In
formulating each program, discussions have taken
place in view of the current situation as well as the
future direction, with the collaboration of various
related organizations.

Council for Science and

Te c h n o l o g y, M i n i s t r y o f Cabinet Office
Educ ation, Culture, Spor ts, (disaster prevention section) Related ministries and agencies
Science and Technology Liaison Liaison and
Volc ano Subc ommit tee, coordination
Subdivision on Geodesy

Information exchange
Participation based on proposal
Coordinating Committee
for Prediction of
Volcanic Eruptions
(Secretariat: Japan
National Research Institute for Incline observation, earthquake observation, Meteorological Agency)
Earth Science and Disaster geoc hemic al obser vation, development of
Prevention airborne infrared imaging device, etc.

Basic research for establishing volcanic eruption

Universities prediction theories through various observations

O bser vation of shor t- dist anc e benc hmar k

National Institute of Advanced
Industrial Science and
Technology
Hydrographic and Oceanographic
Department, Japan Coast Guard
network, observation of groundwater level, quality
and temperature, volcanic gas obser vation,
expansion and contraction observation Information exchange
Measurement of images, temperatures, etc. of
submarine volcanoes and volcanic islands by
aircraft

Seismic obser vation (volcanic ear thquake,

tremor, etc.), incline observation, geomagnetic
Japan Meteorological Agency observation, distant observation (fumes, etc.), field
observation (fumarolic temperature, ejecta, etc.)

Geodetic survey of crustal deformation, gravity,

Geographical Survey Institute etc., heat distribution observation by aircraft, etc.

Figure 4 : Volcanic eruption prediction framework of Japan

Prepared by the STFC based on Reference[5]

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Table 2 : History of volcanic eruption prediction programs

● Volcano observatory established on Mt. Usu.

● Annual operation of concentrated and comprehensive observation squad targeting Sakura-
First program (1974~1978)
jima and other specified volcanoes.
● Establishment of the Coordinating Committee for Prediction of Volcanic Eruptions.

● Classification of target volcanoes into “particularly active volcanoes” and “other volcanoes.”
Second program (1979~1983) ● Development of prediction methods, promotion of basic research and strengthening of
volcanic eruption prediction framework.

● Enhancement and strengthening of detailed observation research in view of volcanic

properties.
Third program (1984~1988)
● Promotion of prediction method development and basic research on the volcanic eruption
mechanism.

● Increased number of factors, higher density, and greater accuracy of observation.

● Promotion of the development of a system that immediately recognizes the imminent
Fourth program (1989~1993)
precursors of an eruption, as well as basic research to accurately grasp the dynamic process
of magma.

● Implementation of observation research for grasping the volcanic body structure, with the aim
of improving the understanding of magma.
Fifth program (1994~1998)
● Promotion of wide-ranging basic research related to magma activity and eruption phenomena,
as well as the development of new prediction methods.

● More effective use of volcano observation data by strengthening coordination among related
agencies.
● Implementation of new observation that captures underground magma condition and
movement.
● Basic research aimed at identifying the properties and behaviors of volcanic fluids involved in
Sixth program (1999~2003)
volcanic activity, as well as the eruption process and mechanism.
● Basic research on eruption potential assessment, such as accumulating eruption history-
related data.
● Organization and consideration of active volcanoes newly subject to focused observation
research.

● Strengthening of necessary monitoring observation and provision of constant observation

Seventh program (2004~2008)
system, with the long-term objective of quantitatively finding the activity levels of all active
volcanoes.
● Identification of magma supply system and eruption occurrence site structures, as well as
understanding their changes with time.
● Building of a physicochemical model of eruption, based on a quantitative understanding of the
eruption occurrence mechanism.

Prepared by the STFC based on References[4,6,7]

The first program focused on the establishment
of the Coordinating Committee for Prediction of
Volcanic Eruptions as a framework for volcanic
eruption prediction research, and the second program
focused on the classification of target volcanoes and
improving and strengthening the framework. The
third and fourth programs enhanced the observation
framework, which enabled an understanding of the
background conditions, and gradually led to the
detection of abnormalities in volcanic activity and
assessment of each volcano’s activities. Notably, in
Sakura-jima and Izu-Oshima, progress was made
in understanding phenomena immediately before
an eruption, and magma supply systems and their
behaviors were identified. It was also shown that
volcanoes such as Mt. Usu, Mt. Asama and Miyake-
jima, where high-density, multiple-factor and high-
accuracy monitoring observation systems were
provided, were approaching the stage where accurate
volcanic activity assessments and predictions of
eruption occurrences were possible.
As the next step after the first four programs
provided knowledge about abnormality detection,
the fifth program focused on research aimed at
finding out about the magma supply system, such as
the subterranean structure of volcanoes and magma
depth, volume and condition. Notably, in Unzen-dake
and Mt. Kirishima, details of the seismic velocity
structure became clear thanks to strenuous structural
exploration efforts using artificial earthquakes.
The sixth program demonstrated the effectiveness of
the observation networks and prediction methods that
had been developed and promoted since the launch of
the eruption prediction program, when Mt. Usu and
Miyake-jima erupted during the project term. At the
same time, however, the eruptions led to the discovery
of further problems that needed to be solved,
specifically, the difficulty of predicting the progression
after the start of an eruption. In volcano observations
based on coordination among related organizations,

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high-quality observation data were useful not only
for basic research but also for disaster prevention
measures, as grasping the volcanic activity of
Miyake-jima led to the evacuation of the entire island
population. In terms of promoting basic research
aimed at enhancing volcanic eruption predictions, data
regarding three-dimensional structures and dynamic
magma activity were obtained from experimental
observations at Mt. Iwate. In addition, regarding
material science research on magma-degassing
mechanisms, gradual progress was made in theoretical
research aimed at finding out the eruption mechanism.
Progress was made in strengthening the volcanic
eruption prediction framework, with research facilities
created at universities to continue and promote
research and observations, as well as the establishment
of the Volcanic Observations and Information Center
within the Japan Meteorological Agency.
Regarding the current seventh program, a mid-term
review of the status of implementation was compiled
in January 2007[8]. According to the review, in terms
of volcano observation research, real-time crustal
deformation analysis was close to transpiring thanks
to the Geographical Survey Institute’s nationwide
placement of GPS-based electronic benchmarks.
In the 2004 eruption of Mt. Asama, multiple-factor
observation networks that included broadband
seismographs, tiltmeters, GPS, gravity and volcanic
gas successfully grasped the long-term activity
changes leading up to the eruption as well as precursor
f luctuations immediately before eruption, thus
achieving positive results toward practical eruption
predictions. The review noted that the foundations of
eruption-potential assessment were being established
gradually, thanks to the understanding of magma
supply systems due to a comprehensive interpretation
of seismic velocity structure and electrical resistivity
structure, systematic geological surveys, and
systematic chemical analyses and dating of rocks.
It is noteworthy that, particularly in the sixth and
seventh programs, advancements in remote sensing
technology have brought about significant progress
in volcanology as well. The establishment of the
GPS-based observation network, GEONET, by the
Geographical Survey Institute, and the development
of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) technology of
satellite Daichi, have made it easy to obtain surface
information on crustal deformations.[9] In addition,
imaging of magma systems in the shallow parts
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of the volcanic body made progress following the
development of cosmic-ray muon transmission
radiography methods for volcanic interiors.[10]However,
this was limited to imaging of the very shallow parts
immediately beneath the crater, as transmission
radiography is not possible if there are sediments of
1.5km or more in thickness.
2-4 Large-scale academic projects
Notably important findings have been obtained from
large-scale basic research projects that are conducted
in parallel with volcanic eruption prediction programs.
Two examples of large-scale projects conducted in
recent years are described here. While the results of
these projects may not be immediately applicable
to eruption predictions, finding out the eruption
mechanism should contribute to volcanic eruption
predictions, including eruption potential assessments.
① “ Multidisciplinary Approach on Volcanic
Activity of Fuji Volcano and Advancement
of Related Information” (Leading research
project of the Special Coordination Funds for
Promoting Science and Technology, Ministry
of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and
Technology; FY2001–FY2004; Project leader:
Toshitsugu Fujii)[11]
Following an increase in deep low-frequency
seismic activity at Mt. Fuji in 2000, the project was
conducted in three sub-themes with the objective of
finding out the eruption history and current conditions
of Mt. Fuji in preparation for possible future volcanic
activity. In the “Study on low-frequency earthquakes
and magma accumulation processes,” high-quality
observations of earthquakes, crustal deformations
and ground potential found that the epicenters of low-
frequency earthquakes were lined up in the northeast
of the summit crater at depths of around 15km
underground in the northwest-southeast direction,
that a low-specific resistance zone existed at depths of
around 30km, and that there was no significant crustal
deformation accompanying volcanic activity. In the
“Study on eruption history,” Mt. Fuji’s ejecta were
analyzed based on surface surveys, trench surveys
and drilling surveys, and there were interpretations
of transitions in the magma supply system over time.
These studies showed that Mt. Fuji comprised four
volcanoes, instead of the commonly believed three.
 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
The “Study on advancement of information” studied
the social damage, volcanic information transmission
and evacuation framework in the event of a possible
massive ash fall such as the one seen in the 1707 Houei
eruption of Mt. Fuji, and found an important direction
in terms of the relationship between scientists and
residents.
② “ Dynamics of volcanic explosion” (Specified
area research project of the grant-in-aid scientific
research, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,
Science and Technology; FY2002–FY2006;
Project leader: Yoshiaki Ida)[12]
To predict volcanic eruptions, it is necessary to
determine the explosion phenomenon mechanism.
While pioneering research projects have taken place
in the United States and Europe, “Dynamics of
volcanic explosion,” a specified area research project
of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science
and Technology’s grant-in-aid scientific research, was
the first such project in Japan. Some 80 researchers
from across Japan took part in this project. In contrast
to previous volcanic eruption prediction research,
which leaned toward observation and analysis
techniques, the project aimed to discover more
about the explosion phenomenon by coordinating
observation, modeling and experimental approaches.
As the first step toward a volcanic eruption, a site of
occurrence is formed where magma is accumulated
underground and explosive energy is maintained. This
site includes rocks that surround accumulated magma
and hydrothermal fluids, as well as the magma and
fluids themselves. Once the site is ready for explosion,
magma begins to rise and the hydrothermal fluid
temperature increases, culminating in volcanic
explosions such as magmatic and phreatic explosions.
As a result, fumes and pyroclastic flows emerge on
the surface, leading to volcanic disasters. The project
comprised five research themes (site of occurrence,
preparation process, mechanism, surface phenomenon
and volcanic disasters) and new equipment using
robotic vehicles and Doppler radars were developed
to observe active volcanoes. Additionally, numerical
analysis codes that incorporated properties specific
to volcanic materials were developed, enabling new
findings regarding the physics of multiphase magma-
bubble flows. Furthermore, the elementary steps of
an eruption became clear following magma foam
92
experiments and explosion and shock wave tube
experiments. The results of the project have received
international recognition as pioneering achievements.
3 FY2009–2013 Observation
research program for the
prediction of earthquakes and
volcanic eruptions[2]
3-1 Unification of earthquake predictions
and volcanic eruption predictions
The existing earthquake prediction program and
volcanic eruption prediction program are set to be
integrated in fiscal 2009 into a new observation
research program for the prediction of earthquakes
and volcanic eruptions[2]. Under the new program,
earthquake predictions and volcanic eruption
predictions will be coordinated from the viewpoints
that “earthquakes and volcanic eruptions are natural
phenomena that share the same geoscientific
background, and joint observation research based
on geodetic and seismological methods is useful in
understanding both phenomena,” and that “efficient
and effective research can be conducted by effectively
utilizing research resources, including earthquake
and crustal deformation observation networks
whose densities are unlike any other in the world, for
observation research of both seismic and volcanic
phenomena.”
3-2 Volcanic eruption prediction research
from FY2009
The volcanic eruption prediction programs
implemented up to now and basic research based
on the programs have led to the establishment of
observation networks of active volcanoes, gradually
allowing the detection and information transmission
of abnormalities in volcanic activity. However, current
volcanic eruption predictions are limited to predicting
when a volcano “is likely to erupt” (timing) or that a
crater is “likely to be formed around here” (location),
and fall short of answering questions such as “How
large will the eruption be?” (magnitude), “Will it be
explosive or non-explosive?” (type) or “How long will
it last?” (progression). Of the three stages of eruption
prediction described in 2-1 (See 2-1), many volcanoes
that are currently subject to observation are in Stage 1.
Even some volcanoes that are active, have numerous
eruption records, and are subject to multiple-factor
 Q UA R T E R LY R E V I E W N o. 3 2 / J u l y 2 0 0 9
observations and various surveys, are believed to remain
in Stage 2. Substantive volcanic eruption forecasting
requires reaching Stage 3. Based on such awareness of
the current situation, the following directions have been
indicated in the program starting in FY2009:
● Strengthen volcano monitoring observation
networks and conduct focused monitoring
of areas with a high probability of volcanic
eruption.
● Assess current volcanic activity and prepare
eruption scenarios covering expected precursors
and progression of an eruption.
● Establish a forecasting system that provides
quantitative assessments of volcanic activity by
combining monitoring results with models and
eruption scenarios obtained from basic research.
In the above, the keywords for research and
development in the next program are: “Strengthening
of volcano monitoring observation networks,”
“Preparation of eruption scenarios,” “Creation
of eruption mechanism models” and, eventually,
“Establishment of an eruption prediction system.”
The strengthening of volcano monitoring observation
networks has seen steady progress, but the number of
volcanoes on which the Japan Meteorological Agency
conducts continuous observations is still limited to just
over 30 of the 108 active volcanoes in Japan. Higher
quality data need to be accumulated by conducting
closer examinations in selecting target volcanoes and
by introducing more factors (earthquakes, crustal
deformation, volcanic gas, electromagnetic field,
gravity, imaging, atmospheric pressure, etc.) in long-
term, stable, continuous observations in order to
identify the precursors of an eruption. Particularly
in volcanic areas, high-density observations using
observation wells are effective as signals are subject to
large decays due to pyroclastic material.
Eruption scenarios are to be prepared based mainly
on past records, describing the kinds of eruptions
expected in the future for each individual volcano.
They would indicate the changes with time, from the
precursors all the way to the end of an eruption, the
likely volcanic disaster phenomena and the extent
to which the disaster might spread. The scenarios
are expected to serve as a guideline for long-term
risk management such as sediment control in areas
surrounding a volcano, as well as for countermeasures
93
once an eruption occurs.
From an eruption mechanism viewpoint, the goal is
to create an eruption mechanism model that derives
laws that govern eruption phenomena based on high-
quality data and from the combined viewpoints of
physics, petrology and chemistry. Volcanoes are an
extremely complex system involving multiple states
of solid, liquid and gas, and covering a wide range of
scales, from the micro level such as magma bubble
behavior to the macro level such as disaster-creating
lava flows and fumes. Creating an eruption mechanism
model is to create a model that describes how magma
rises from underground and how it reaches eruption.
As a qualitative image, the expansion of magma
bubbles accelerates since magma pressure decreases
as magma rises, leading to magma fragmentation and
eventual explosion. In cases where the magma’s gas
component is low, the eruption is non-explosive, as
seen in lava flows. Instead of such qualitative images,
however, it is necessary to establish, quantitatively
from observation data, a theoretical model for
speculating the underground conditions, particularly
the physical state, such as the vent’s pressure and
temperature immediately before an explosion.
It is thus necessary to aim to establish an eruption
prediction system that involves the creation of an
eruption mechanism model and preparation of an
eruption scenario based on basic research such as the
projects described above, coupled with high-quality
data obtained through the strengthening of volcano
monitoring observation networks, and conducting
quantitative assessments of volcanic activity to enable
predictions of future volcanic activity.
4 International cooperation and
overseas research on volcanic
eruption prediction
Volcanic eruption prediction efforts are conducted
under international cooperation as well. Sharing
observation data and knowledge of other volcanic
countries in the world has greatly contributed to the
advancement of Japan’s volcanic eruption prediction
technologies. At the same time, Japan’s volcanic
eruption prediction technologies centering on volcano
observations have been introduced in volcanic
countries in Southeast Asia and South America as
part of Japan’s international contribution and have
produced positive results.
 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

P(1) P(2|1) P(3|2) P(4|3) P(5|4) P(6|5) P(7|6) P(8|7) P(9|8)

異常
Abnormality 原因
Cause 結果
Result 規模
Magnitude 現象
Phenomenon 区域
Area 範囲
Magnitude 爆発性 脆弱性
Explosiveness Vulnerability

Noマグマ
magma
eruption
噴火なし

VEI>=4 (以下略)
(Abbreviated)
(以下略)
(Abbreviated)

マグマの Ash
降灰 fall 区域１
Area 1 (以下略)
(Abbreviated)
Magma
intrusion
貫入
0-5km (以下略)
(Abbreviated)
Pyroclastic ２
surge
火砕サージ
３ 5-10km

VEI=3 Pyroclastic
火砕流 ４ 10 -15km
flow 0=なし
None 0=なし
None

マグマ
Magma 1=最大
Maximum 1=最大
Maximum
５
eruption
噴火 Mudflow
泥流 15-20km
６
>20km
Occurrence
火山の 溶岩流
Lava flow
of異常発生
volcanic ７
abnormality
Tectonic or ８
hydrothermal
activity (No VEI=1-2 (Abbreviated)
(以下略)
マグマの
magma
intrusion)
貫入なし 泥流
Mudflow
構造性・
熱水系 No VEI=0 溶岩流
eruption Lava flow
活動 噴火なし

Phreatic explosion
水蒸気爆発

Figure 5 : Volcanic eruption event tree example

Prepared by the STFC based on Reference[17]

Much of the volcanic eruption phenomena depend on
the properties of each volcano. It is unusual for disaster-
causing eruptions to occur repeatedly in a single volcano.
Furthermore, it is rare for a single human being to
experience multiple eruptions during his or her lifetime.
It is thus important to share volcanic eruption station
information and observation data, particularly cases of
abnormality detection. For this purpose, WOVO (World
Organization of Volcano Observatories), an organization
for volcanic research institutions and observation bodies
around the world to provide data and share information,
operates as a commission of IAVCEI (International
Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s
Interior).[13] Notably, regarding observation data, the
design of a shared database is moving forward under
the WOVOdat project, a subordinate organization
of WOVO.[14] The WOVOdat project is designed for
member organizations to collaborate by aggregating
data using a shared format and mutual referencing[15].
One of the pioneering efforts in the United States
and Europe that is not used much in Japan is to treat
eruption phenomena as probabilistic phenomena
and calculate the probability of occurrence of each
eruption disaster phenomenon.[16] As shown in Figure
1, volcanic eruptions are widespread, and an event
tree shows volcanic phenomena generalized in terms
of possibility, magnitude and branching (Figure 5).
In each of the nodes in the event tree, the next branch
of volcanic activity progression is considered and the
eruption possibility is assessed from a probability
standpoint. The probability calculation method is still
being researched, but the method aims to be applied in
both long-term and short-term assessments.
5 Volcanic disaster administration
system
5-1 Volcanic disaster administration system
of Japan
The findings of volcanic eruption prediction research
are applied to volcanic disaster administration. The
outline of volcanic disaster administration will be
described in this section from the aspect of the societal
significance of volcanic eruption prediction research.
Administrative judgments regarding volcanic
disasters, similarly to other natural disasters, are
basically made by the local government chiefs. Each
local government draws up a basic plan for disaster
prevention and, based on the plan, implements
administrative measures such as evacuation, goods
supplies, and reconstruction in the event of volcanic
disasters. If the disaster spreads across a wide area
and cannot be handled by municipal governments
alone, the process is upgraded to the prefectural
government or national government levels. At the
national government level, the Cabinet Office (disaster
prevention section) is responsible for coordinating
between related ministries and agencies (Figure 6).
Needless to say, the volcano disaster administration
expects volcanic eruption prediction research to
provide accurate and clear information regarding the
possibility of volcanic eruptions and activity forecasts.

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 Q UA R T E R LY R E V I E W N o. 3 2 / J u l y 2 0 0 9

Disaster防災計画
prevention plan Disaster prevention framework in
噴火災害時の防災体制
the event of eruption disaster
Central Disaster Prevention Liaison conference of
中央防災会議（内閣総理大臣） 緊急災害対策本部
Emergency disaster
related ministries and
Council (Prime Minister) countermeasures 関係省庁連絡会議
（内閣総理大臣）
headquarters (Prime Minister) agencies

National government
Create
作成
国 Establish
設置
Basic plan for disaster
防災基本計画
prevention Establish Related
設置 Cabinet
内閣府 Office ministries
関係省庁
and
agencies
Cabinet Office and related Emergency disaster
内閣府および関係省庁
ministries and agencies 非常災害対策本部
countermeasures Establish
設置
headquarters (Minister in Act on special measures for
（防災担当大臣）
charge of disaster prevention) 活動火山対策特別措置法
active volcanoes
Create
作成
Operating plan for Promotion of eruption disaster
防災業務計画
disaster prevention 噴火災害対策の推進
countermeasures
都道府県

Prefectural disaster
Prefectural disaster
government

prevention council 都道府県災害対策本部

Prefectural

都道府県防災会議（知事） countermeasures
(Governor) （知事）
headquarters (Governor)
Create
作成
Prefectural regional disaster
都道府県地域防災計画 Implementation of eruption
prevention plan (Volcanic disaster emergency
噴火災害応急対策の実施
（火山防災計画）
disaster prevention plan) countermeasures
市町村

Municipal disaster Municipal disaster

government

prevention council countermeasures

Municipal

市町村防災会議（市町村長） 市町村災害対策本部（市町村長）
(Municipal chief) headquarters (Municipal chief)
Create
作成
Municipal regional disaster
市町村地域防災計画
Implementation of eruption
prevention plan (Volcanic disaster disaster emergency
噴火災害応急対策の実施
（火山防災計画）
prevention plan) countermeasures
Residents住民

・Communication of forecasts and warnings

・Warning・予警報の伝達
and evacuation recommendation and instruction
・Setting・警告・避難の勧告・指示
of caution zones, etc.
・警戒区域の設定 等

Figure 6 : Volcanic disaster administration system of Japan

Prepared by the STFC based on Reference[5]

5-2 Volcanic disaster prevention hazard
maps
As part of local disaster prevention planning,
increasingly more volcanic disaster prevention
hazard maps are being created in recent years. A
volcanic disaster prevention hazard map shows
disaster prevention information including the spread
of damage following possible volcanic activity such
as an eruption, evacuation centers, and evacuation
routes, and serves as the foundation of disaster
prevention countermeasures (Figure 7). Committees
comprising local governments in the area concerned
have taken the initiative to create a hazard map
based on information such as simulations of various
phenomena, and distributed the map to provide
information to residents. Such hazard maps have been
prepared for 37 volcanoes in Japan, and they can be
viewed online at the National Research Institute for
Earth Science and Disaster Prevention’s website.[18]
When Mt. Usu erupted in 2000, evacuation was
conducted smoothly, as residents and disaster
prevention organizations were informed of the
volcanic disaster prevention hazard map in advance.
At Mt. Fuji, concerns grew of the possibility of the
first eruption in some 300 years due to active deep
low-frequency earthquakes with epicenters at depths
of around 10–15km between October 2000 and May
2001. But the Coordinating Committee for Prediction
of Volcanic Eruptions judged that an eruption was not
imminent, as changes in epicenter depth and crustal
deformation abnormalities could not be detected.
However, the event led to renewed awareness that Mt.
Fuji was an active volcano and highlighted the need
for assessing the direct impact of volcanic disasters in
the Tokai region, Japan’s main artery, as well as the
Tokyo metropolitan area, and the need for adopting
countermeasures. Responding to these needs, the
Mt. Fuji Hazard Map Examination Committee (now
Mt. Fuji Volcano Disaster Management Conference)
was established by the national government and local
authorities under the command of the Cabinet Office,
and a report was compiled in June 2004.[19]
5-3 Eruption warnings and eruption alert
levels
The Japan Meteorological Agency began issuing
forecasts and warnings on volcanic phenomena
in December 2007, and eruption alert levels have
since been introduced in 20 volcanoes (Table 3).
Before then, emergency information on volcanic
activity, the equivalent of alerts and forecasts in a
weather forecast, was provided. However, the revised

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 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

Area where consideration of snowmelt-type

volcanic mudflow is required in detail

Pyroclastic flow reach

(Pyroclastic flow reach is indicated in dark grey, and snowmelt-type mudflow reach is indicated in light grey.)
Figure 7 : Volcanic disaster prevention hazard map example
Source: Reference[19]

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 Q UA R T E R LY R E V I E W N o. 3 2 / J u l y 2 0 0 9

Table 3 : Eruption warnings and alert levels announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency
Explanation
Abbreviated Target
Term area Levels & Keyword Expected volcanic
activity
Action to
be taken by
Action to
be taken by
inhabitants climbers

Eruption that Evacuate from

m a y c a u s e the danger zone.
serious damage (Target areas
Level 5 Evacuate in residential and evacuation

Residential areas
areas, or imminent measures are
eruption. determined in
line with current
Warning
volcanic activity).

Possibility or Prepare to
i n c r e a s i n g evacuate from alert
possibility of areas. Let disabled
persons evacuate.
Prepare eruption that may
(Target areas
Level 4 to
cause serious
d a m a g e i n and evacuation
measures are
residential areas.
evacuate determined in
line with current
volcanic activity).
Non-residential

Eruption or S t a n d b y , Refrain from

areas near the
Near-crater Warning

possibility of paying attention entering the

Do not eruption that to changes in danger zone.
crater

may severely volcanic activity. (Target areas are

approach
Level 3 the
affect places near
residential areas
Let disabled
persons prepare
determined in
line with current
(threat to life is to evacuate in volcanic activity).
volcano possible in these line with current
areas). volcanic activity.

Eruption or Refrain from

possibility of approaching the
Around the

eruption that may crater. (Target

Do not affect areas near areas around
crater

Level 2 approach the crater (threat

to life is possible in
the crater are
determined in
the crater these areas). line with current
volcanic activity).

Stay as usual.
Calm: Volcanic No restrictions.
Forecast

ash emissions (In some cases, it

Inside the

or other related may be necessary

to refrain from
crater

phenomena may
Level 1 Normal occur in the crater approaching the
crater).
(threat to life is
possible in these
areas).

Source: Reference[20]

Meteorological Service Act (December 1, 2007) took ea r t hqu a kes a nd volca n ic er upt ions, to be
into consideration the distance from the assumed implemented in tandem with earthquake prediction
crater to residential areas, in addition to the risk of programs. Since volcanic activity and seismic
eruption, and clarified the affected areas in the event activity are closely related, the new program is
of an eruption as well as necessary disaster prevention expected to be highly effective in terms of the
measures. Key phrases such as “Evacuate,” “Prepare mutual use of information gained from both
to evacuate” and “Do not approach the volcano” the earthquake and volcano fields. The Central
are set for each danger level. However, while these Disaster Prevention Council clearly positions
eruption warnings and alert levels are pioneering eruption forecasts and other volcano information
efforts, they are also premature in the sense that the released by the Japan Meteorological Agency as
observation system and assessment methods used to the base point of disaster prevention measures, and
judge and provide information are still in the trial-and- considers measures in accordance with the volcano
error stage. Future improvements in accuracy are thus information. This means that the importance of
required. more sophisticated and accurate volcano information
is growing.
6 Issues and proposals regarding In reality, however, the following two major
future volcanic eruption problems remain:
prediction research and
volcanic disaster prevention ① Volcanic eruption prediction research is still
administration in the developmental process in terms of
identifying the eruption mechanism principles,
The 35-year-old volcanic eruption prediction and the prediction accuracy is varied.
program has reached a turning point and, as ② The observation framework is vulnerable,
described in 3-1, will be reorganized into an with the observation network of the Japan
observation research program for predicting Meteorological Agency (the organization

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 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

responsible for forecasts) alone unable to
grasp volcanic activity with high reliability. In
addition, universities, which have cooperated
in observation efforts, are facing a crisis
regarding the continuation of observations.
In this chapter, proposals will be made regarding
the future direction, taking into consideration the
background of the above problems.
6-1 Efficient observation system leading to
volcanic eruption predictions
In volcano observations, not only are earthquake
and crustal deformation observations necessary, but
so are continuous observations of multiple factors,
including electromagnetic fields, gravity, volcanic
gas and visible images. Therefore, improving the
above factors collectively and accumulating high-
quality data are the basics of abnormality detection
and the straightforward approach to realizing volcanic
eruption prediction.
However, regarding the volcano observation
system, the Ministr y of Education, Culture,
Sports, Science and Technology has indicated that,
starting in 2009, the number of volcanoes subject to
focused observation within the volcano observation
networks of national universities nationwide, which
have served as the foundation of volcanic eruption
prediction research, will be reduced sharply from
34 to 26 that have the possibility of eruption.[21]
Furthermore, national university corporations have
faced cuts in research budgets and staff following their
transformation into corporate entities, rendering some
unable to update aging volcano observation equipment
or maintain volcano observation facilities.[22,23] If
the reduced observation networks are subsequently
abolished, the detection of abnormalities necessary to
capture the precursors of an eruption is not possible,
raising concern that, most importantly, volcanic
disaster risks cannot be identified.
As mentioned in Chapter 5, the eruption alert levels
introduced by the Japan Meteorological Agency
provide information regarding specific volcanic
disaster prevention guidelines, such as evacuation,
and the information needs to be highly credible,
backed by sufficient data and interpretation. However,

Current level of attainment of goals

Volcanic eruption prediction research
Volcanoes equipped with appropriate
　Volcanic eruption prediction programs (first to seventh) observation systems → Eruption timing
(FY1974~2008) can be predicted to a certain extent
The programs aim for quantitative predictions of
the eruption timing, location, magnitude, type and
progression after the eruption has begun, by determining
the volcanic structure and deepening understanding of
volcanic activities such as precursors and mechanisms of Introduction of eruption alert levels
an eruption. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
(Since December 2007)

Promoting the observation research program for the prediction of earthquakes and
volcanic eruptions (Proposal)

● Strengthen volcano monitoring ● Prepare eruption scenarios covering ● Develop models by promoting basic
observation networks and conduct precursors and progression of an research and establish a forecasting
focused monitoring of areas with a eruption. system that provides quantitative
high probability of volcanic eruption. assessments of volcanic activity.

Realize a safe and secure society through the transmission of highly accurate
information useful for volcanic disaster prevention.

Figure 8 : Direction of future volcanic eruption prediction research

Prepared by the STFC based on References[2,24]

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 Q UA R T E R LY R E V I E W N o. 3 2 / J u l y 2 0 0 9
the observation data supporting the information
are highly dependent on the observation networks
of national university corporations. It cannot be
denied that an observation framework comprising
the Japan Meteorological Agency alone might lead
to deterioration in quality. In addition, national
university corporations have built close relationships
with local authorities and residents in their respective
volcanic areas, and have a wealth of experience and
buildup in terms of sharing and utilizing volcanic
activity information. A cutback in national university
corporations’ observation framework might diminish
some of the close locally based partnerships. Thus,
the observation research program for the prediction
of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is faced with
a dilemma; while it emphasizes the importance of
observations as the foundation of volcanic eruption
predictions, in reality a reduction of the observation
framework is inevitable.
Faced with such circumstances, it is necessary
to promote volcanic eruption prediction research
more effectively than ever in accordance with the
direction indicated in the observation research
program for the prediction of earthquakes and
volcanic eruptions, in order to minimize the negative
effects of the overall downsizing. Figure 8 sums
up this point. In terms of strengthening volcano
monitoring observation networks, it is important
to utilize existing infrastructures that have been
established in past earthquake survey research as
effectively as possible—such as the Geographical
Survey Institute’s GEONET, a GPS-based observation
network, and the National Research Institute for Earth
Science and Disaster Prevention’s Hi-net and other
data transmission systems, which are foundation
observation networks of micro earthquakes. This is
necessary to realize the establishment and operation
of dense and multiple-factor volcanic foundation
observation networks on a permanent basis. By
making use of them, six to 10 observation stations
can be provided around a volcano on a satellite basis.
In addition, aged observation facilities of universities
should be reviewed from the perspective of whether
or not they can be part of a foundation observation
network, and an overall redesigning of a foundation
observation network, including the university
facilities, is needed.
99
6-2 Construction of eruption models and
eruption scenarios
Basic research on creating an eruption model by
physically identifying the eruption mechanism is
essentially the means for volcanic eruption prediction.
In particular, regarding the mechanism of magma
rising from underground followed by ejection and
explosion, a highly accurate theoretical model can be
constructed by conducting laboratory experiments and
simulations to examine processes such as the behavior
of magma gas components and the fragmentation
mechanism, and verifying the results against high-
quality data obtained from foundation observation
networks.
In addition, an eruption scenario—designed to
directly contribute to volcanic disaster prevention—
would be useful, particularly as information for
emergency measures, if the concept of progression
over time is added to the event tree of volcanic
eruption phenomena (Figure 5). The key to creating
such a scenario lies in the sophistication of geological
techniques, such as boring and trench techniques,
as well as simulation technology of lava f lows,
pyroclastic flows and fumes. By putting together
data from foundation observation networks, eruption
models and eruption scenarios, the establishment of
a highly reliable eruption prediction system would
eventually become possible. By incorporating the
probability-based approach tried in the United States
and Europe, and by utilizing an internationally shared
database on abnormal phenomena, the creation of
an eruption scenario with higher accuracy should be
pursued.
6-3 Provision of highly accurate and useful
volcanic disaster prevention information
Since it first began issuing eruption warnings and
eruption alert levels, the Japan Meteorological Agency
has provided not only information about volcanic
activity but also specific volcanic disaster prevention
information such as evacuation conduct. In this
pioneering effort, basic research has led directly to
volcanic disaster prevention. However, since the
measure was introduced when the development of
volcanic eruption prediction technology principles was
still in progress, it is important to use the information
with the full understanding that, at present, there
remain limitations in terms of its accuracy. In addition,
it is essential to enhance information accuracy in the
 SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

future through the continuation of basic research and
strengthening of the observation system. At the same
time, in addition to taking measures to protect the
safety and security of the lives of residents in areas
near volcanoes—such as providing health hazard
information and offering psychological care to help
cope with eruption damage and evacuation life—more
detailed considerations, such as the evacuation of
pets and livestock, are believed to be necessary in the
future.
Of the various natural disasters, volcanic eruptions
are a particularly complex phenomenon and, once an
eruption occurs, depending on its magnitude, even
remote areas can be affected considerably by fumes
and ash falls, and a massive eruption could have an
impact affecting the entire planet. Particularly in
Japan, where coexistence with volcanoes is necessary,
it is absolutely vital to provide short-term volcanic
eruption prediction information with enhanced
accuracy and reliability without delay, as well as to
conduct long-term volcanic risk assessments, for the
safety and security of people’s lives.
Acknowledgement
In writing this article, I received valuable opinions
from Prof. Toshitsugu Fujii of the Earthquake
Research Institute, University of Tokyo, also chairman
of the Coordinating Committee for Prediction of
Volcanic Eruptions, and from Mr. Motoo Ukawa,
director of the National Research Institute for Earth
Science and Disaster Prevention’s Volcano Research
Department. I would like to take this opportunity to
extend my deepest gratitude to both of them.

References

[1] Japan Meteorological Agency website：http://www.seisvol.kishou.go.jp/tokyo/volcano.html

[2] About the promotion of the observation research program for the prediction of earthquakes and volcanic
eruptions (proposal)：http://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/houdou/20/07/08071504.htm
[3] Y. Hayakawa, Elekitel series: Japan’s volcanoes-a new outlook, No. 6 Izu-Oshima：
http://elekitel.jp/elekitel/series/2003/03/sr_03_n.htm
[4] Japan Meteorological Agency volcanic operation document, Twenty-Year History of the Coordinating
Committee for Prediction of Volcanic Eruptions (1995).
[5] Cabinet Office (disaster prevention section), web page on volcanic disaster prevention：
http://www.bousai.go.jp/kazan/kazan.html
[6] Sixth volcanic eruption prediction program: http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/predict/kazan98.html
[7] Seventh volcanic eruption prediction program：
http://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/shingi/gijyutu/gijyutu0/toushin/03072402.htm
[8] Review of the status of implementation of the seventh volcanic eruption prediction program (report)：
http://www.mext.go.jp/b_menu/shingi/gijyutu/gijyutu6/toushin/07011909/001.htm
[9] T. Shimizu, Establishment of a Disaster Prevention Satellite System in Asia and Promotion of International
Cooperation, Science & Technology Trends, No. 80 (2007).
[10] Cosmic-ray Muon Radiography Imaging of Volcanic Interiors, Science & Technology Trends, No. 78 (2007).
[11] Special coordination funds for promoting science and technology, Accomplishment report, Promotion of
leading research, Multidisciplinary approach on volcanic activity of Fuji Volcano and advancement of related
information：http://scfdb.tokyo.jst.go.jp/pdf/20011970/2003/200119702003rr.pdf
[12] Y. Ida and H. Taniguchi, Closing in on Volcanic Explosions: Identifying the Eruption Mechanism and
Reducing Volcanic Disasters, University of Tokyo Press.
[13] WOVO：http://www.wovo.org/
[14] WOVOdat：http://wovo.atmos.colostate.edu/logon.html
[15] Schwandner, F. et al., WOVOdat：The world organization of volcano observatories database of volcanic unrest,
Cities on Volcanoes 5, (2007).

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[16] Marzocchi et al., 2008 W. Marzocchi, L. Sandri and J. Selva, BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-
term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol 70 (2008), pp. 623-632.
[17] Newhall and Hoblitt, 2002 C.G. Newhall and R.P. Hoblitt, Constructing event trees for volcanic crises, Bull.
Volcanol 64 (2002), pp. 3-20.
[18] National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, volcanic disaster prevention hazard
map database: http：//www.bosai.go.jp/library/v-hazard/
[19] Mt. Fuji volcanic disaster prevention measures：http://www.bousai.go.jp/fujisan/
[20] S. Kitagawa, Operation of eruption alert levels and related efforts, Japan’s new volcanic disaster prevention
structure—eruption warnings, eruption alert levels and evacuation system in the event of an eruption,
Volcanological Society of Japan 2008 autumn convention public symposium speech draft.
[21] The Asahi Shimbun, December 8, 2008.
[22] T. Fujii, Current status and issues of volcanic eruption prediction programs, Geological Survey of Japan 9th
symposium, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology：
http://www.gsj.jp/GDB/openfile/files/no0470/0470-4.pdf/
[23] T. Fujii, International workshop on measures to reduce volcanic disasters 2005—Lessons of volcanic disaster
prevention measures to be learned from overseas cases—report, pp. 279-289.
[24] Y. Morita et al., Volcanic eruption prediction system based on eruption scenarios, Symposium on earthquake
and volcanic eruption prediction research program：
http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YOTIKYO/nenji/sympo2008.html

Profile

Eisuke Fujita
Affiliated Fellow, STFC
Deputy Director, Volcano Research Department,
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention
http://www.bosai.go.jp/

Specializing in volcano physics, Fujita engages in volcanic activity modeling based on volcano
observation data and numerical simulations of volcanic phenomena. The simulation chart
predicting the area of lava flow in a volcanic eruption is used in the creation of hazard maps.

(Original Japanese version: published in January 2009)

101