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Abstract. This paper provides an overview of the PC partial ordering packages refrain from identifying the
and Mac-based software market for decision/risk best option through weighted scores but accept limited
analyses. Decision/risk analysis is a powerful weighting information to separate dominated options
methodology for conducting systems engineering trade from those that should remain candidates for decision
studies and selecting system designs because the given the information provided. Decision tree or
methodology explicitly deals with conflicting influence diagram packages enable the user to evaluate
performance and cost objectives, uncertainty and risk risky decisions that incorporate both uncertainty and
preference. Information on 28 software packages is conflicting objectives. Finally the group process
provided. Before describing these packages several packages allow a group of experts and decision makers
applications of decision/risk analysis in systems to provide inputs and see results as part of a same time,
engineering design are presented. In addition, technical same place group session.
performance, usability, compatibility and output Tables 1 through 4 summarize most of the
documentation issues are discussed. Finally, we software products currently available on the market.
forecast the future trends for this software. Previous software surveys can be found in Buede (94,
93, 92a and 92b) and Maxwell (96).
OVERVIEW OF THE DECISION/RISK
ANALYSIS SOFTWARE MARKET USING DECISION/RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE
The software market for decision and risk First we examine a design decision that has
analysis packages has been active since the early 1980’s arisen during integration testing for a military helicopter.
but has never been a major market niche like The test results show that the gear box accumulates too
spreadsheets. Software packages in this market address much oil when one of the two engines is lost. This oil
problems in which there are multiple options from which accumulation will cause the loss of the gearbox,
one is to be chosen; each option may be a sequence of resulting in an increased probability of aircraft loss
decisions made at one time or over some time interval. during a vertical landing. The influence diagram in
The packages reviewed here address one or more of the Figure 1 shows an analysis of the redesign decision to
following issues: uncertainty, conflicting objectives, add a drain valve to the gear box or leave the aircraft as
and risk. One taxonomy of this market has the following it is. The drain valve addition to the aircraft has
four categories: (1) multi-attribute utility and Analytical negative implications for weight, cost and schedule. The
Hierarchy Process (AHP), (2) multi-criteria nodes that have been added on the right edge of the
optimization, (3) Outranking or multi-criteria partial figure contain weight values for trading off the four
ordering, and (4) decision tree or influence diagram. objectives: aircraft and pilot loss, aircraft weight, cost,
The multi-attribute utility (MAU) and AHP and schedule.
packages enable the user to create a hierarchy of Figure 2 depicts the objectives hierarchy for the
objectives and criteria for evaluating the options via a originating performance objectives for the U.S. Marine
weighted score. Multi-criteria optimization packages Corps Mobile Protected Weapons System. This
provide a framework for finding an optimal solution by material was developed as part of multiattribute
weighting or sorting multiple criteria. Multi-criteria
Figure 1. Influence Diagram for Aircraft Redesign of the Gearbox
value analysis and provided as part of the Request for tree and influence diagram applications; DPL maintains
Proposal in 1980 and used by contractors in the its lead in this area.
preparation of their technical and cost proposals. See Usability involves the ability of the user,
Buede and Bresnick. whether occasional or frequent, to learn the software
quickly and use it effectively. Software-related design
MAJOR ISSUES IN CHOOSING issues include compatibility of the user interface with
THE RIGHT SOFTWARE PRODUCT emerging PC and existing Mac standards; program
simplicity; clarity and compactness of the screen display
We have grouped the analysis-related issues for data entry and results presentation; command and
that could cause one to buy one or more of these control features provided to the user; and documentation
software packages into the following four categories: (both written and on-line) for help and reference.
(1) technical performance, (2) usability, (3) Software designers are always balancing the conflicting
compatibility with other software packages, and (4) objectives of program simplicity and program power.
output of results for selection and documentation. Generally, power winds out because the software
Technical performance issues include building designers are analysts. Most of the software packages
and editing models, eliciting the quantitative inputs, need to focus more attention on their screen displays to
having flexibility for the sequence and form of the make the desired inputs and presented outputs clearer.
analysis, and the speed at which the computations are Pull-down menus with hot keys have become the
performed. Most of the packages are quite good at standard user interface on both the Mac and the PC.
providing flexibility in building and editing models, Very few programs are providing the user with
including providing graphical representations of the substantial control over the screen display, e.g., changing
analysis structure. Most packages still assume an analyst the scales on graphs, reordering the list of options or
exists to elicit the values and probabilities; Expert outcomes (DPL), choosing which factors to plot against
Choice provides substantial flexibility in providing AHP each other (HIVIEW). The new standards certainly
and non-AHP elicitation techniques. More and more provide the user with control of the cursor.
packages are providing substantial sensitivity analysis Documentation still needs lots of improvement; I seldom
capability; DATA continues to perform very well here. can find answers to my questions either on-line or in
Computation speed is really only critical for decision reference material.
MPWS Op'l Effectvns Assault Support Firepower Accuracy Moving-station,2km
Goal Goal Goal Goal Measure
Secondary systems
Measure
Station to station
Goal
Station-moving,2km
Measure
Light Armor at 2 km
Goal Measure
Personnel
Measure
Tanks at 2 km.
Goal Measure
3 km.
Measure
4 km.
Measure
Servicing Rate
Measure
Stowed Kills
Measure
Recognition range
Measure
Field of view
Measure
in bad weather
Measure
Helicopter Transpor
Measure
Cruising range
Measure
Road Speed
Measure
in Water
Measure
Rel/Avail/Maint(RAM
Measure
Survivability Agility
Goal Measure
Protection in front
Goal Measure
on bottom
Measure
on top
Measure
Signature
Measure
Blocking Position
Goal
Subsequent Ops
Goal
Some of the less successful packages in the past capabilities of these packages. With these improvements
have provided an interview option for the user to we should also continue to see modest improvement in
choose. The interview option, not unlike some of the tax the display and documentation capabilities of the
preparation software, takes the user through a guided software.
process of model creation and numerical elicitation. The improvements that will be least likely to
Almost all of the software packages assume the user is make substantial advances involve embedding the
very knowledgeable of the underlying analytical process analyst’s wisdom and knowledge in the software for the
in the software. users who are less skilled analysts. These
Compatibility with spread sheets is often improvements should include problem structuring and
critical for decision/risk analyses because users capture elicitation features. I believe these capabilities may
and store data in spread sheets. However at this point exist ten years from now, but are not very likely in the
very few packages provide sufficient flexibility for next five years. This software market will always be a
going back and forth between the analysis package and small, specialty market until the less skilled analysts are
the spreadsheet. As a result there are several packages better supported.
(TreePlan, @Risk and Top Rank) that are spreadsheet
add-ins. Expert Choice is probably the most flexible REFERENCES
(non add-in) package in this regard.
The effective output of results for selection and Buede, D.M. "Decision Analysis Software: Aiding
documentation remains a major shortcoming, especially Insight II", OR/MS Today, June 1994.
the documentation of the analysis. The software
packages are becoming more sensitive to presenting the Buede, D.M. "Decision Analysis Software: Aiding
information in meaningful ways for decision makers; Insight", OR/MS Today, April 1993.
DPL certainly has made many strides since its
introduction in this regard by allowing the user great Buede, D.M. "Software Review - Three Packages for
flexibility in seeing small parts of the decision tree or AHP: Criterium, Expert Choice, and HIPRE 3+",
large parts. Using these selections can be time
Journal of Multicriteria Decision Analysis,
consuming and awkward, however. HIVIEW continues
October 1992, Vol. 1, pp. 119-121.
to lead here.
In summary, we have many choices in this low
volume market focusing on sophisticated decision/risk Buede, D.M. "Software Review - Overview of MCDA
analyses. The software packages range from relatively Software Market", Journal of Multicriteria
simple to highly complex. There is more than one Decision Analysis, July 1992, Vol. 1, pp. 59-61.
decision algorithm available for guiding the decision
process; meaning of course that you may well get a Buede, D.M. "Superior Design Features of Decision
different recommendation depending on which package Analytic Software", Computers and Operations
you are using. So “buyer beware”! Research, January 1992, Vol. 19, pp. 43-58.