ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION

GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
Outlook for Week15_April 11 to April 15_TD 071-075
1 of 3

THE emergence of sellers placed a cap on the market's advance at the 4,220-4,240 range. Yet, even as
optimism has been tempered by increased risk-aversion influenced by continuing conflicts in the MENA-
region and the inflationary regime in emerging economies, the presence of buyers have provided sufficient
support at the 4,200 psychological line.
CATEGORY M EASURE VALUE PREVIOUS W EEK CHANGE% END-DEC2010 CHANGE%
ACTIVITY [YTD
NET VOLUM E 2,134,233,292 2,178,570,755 -2.04% 1,637,867,112 30.31%
DAILY AVERAGES]
NET VALUE 4,477,849,194.29 4,422,513,387.63 1.25% 4,603,800,556.27 -2.74%
ISSUES TRADED 174 171 1.75% N/A N/A
TRADES 14,766 14,778 -0.08% N/A N/A
FOREIGN (BUY) 2,141,391,476.55 1,982,553,414.29 8.01% 1,972,980,083.85 8.54%
FOREIGN (SELL) 2,013,687,243.48 2,032,651,370.30 -0.93% 1,752,691,290.38 14.89%
FOREIGN (NET) 127,704,233.17 -50,097,956.00 -354.91% 220,288,793.48 -42.03%
INDICATORS AD Line -445.00 -527.00 -15.56% -508.00 -12.40%
%K STO(14,3) 97.63 99.48 -1.86% 95.12 2.64%
%D (STO(14,3,3) 95.71 87.80 9.02% 72.13 32.69%
RSI(14) 76.22 74.91 1.74% 56.61 34.63%
EM A(10) 4,124.07 3,967.39 3.95% 4,149.40 -0.61%
EM A(50) 3,969.83 3,916.46 1.36% 4,119.42 -3.63%
EM A(150) 3,901.23 3,880.71 0.53% 3,839.39 1.61%

PHILIPPINE MARKET STATS

In contrast to the preceding week's almost unhampered
INDEX LAST WEEK% YTD%
PSEI 4,241.01 2.70 0.95
advance, the current period saw the index dropping once
ALL 3,111.41 2.23 3.49 Tuesday but has managed to skirt a sustained decline, as
FIN 938.80 1.70 -2.36 buyers managed to overturn intra-day dips into negative
IND 7,548.36 4.49 4.54 territory.
HDG 3,527.12 0.93 4.08
PRO 1,626.10 5.75 2.76 Compared to week 13, last week saw investors focus trades
SVC 1,513.79 1.12 -4.82 more on higher priced issues, either as they booked profits on
M&O 14,994.65 3.38 7.51 the advance, or continuing to accumulate more of the first and
WORLD MARKETS second line issues. The latter is evident in the PSEI's 2.7% rise
INDEX LAST WEEK% YTD% on the week, pulling the year-to-date to positive. The broader
DOW 12,380.00 0.03 6.93 All Share Index fares better with a 3.5% gain on the year-to-
S&P 1,328.17 -0.32 5.61
date. Property and industrial counters topped last week's
NASDAQ 2,780.42 -0.33 4.81
across-the-board rise, with their respective composite
FTSE 100 6,055.75 0.76 2.64
DAX 7,217.02 0.52 4.38
measures rising 5.75% and 4.49%, respectively. Only the
CAC 40 4,061.91 0.18 6.76 Financial and Service sectors remain in the red on the year-to-
MSCI APEX 50 921.82 1.71 6.43 date.
TOPIX 853.13 -1.10 -5.08
NIKKEI 225 9,768.08 0.61 -4.51 Universal Robina Corporation [pse: URC, php39.00],
HANGSENG 24,396.10 2.50 5.91 International Container Terminal Services, Inc. [pse: ICT,
SHANGHAI 3,030.02 2.11 7.90 php47.60] and Megaworld Corporation [pse: MEG, php2.31] led
TAIEX 8,894.54 2.18 -0.87 index-component counters with double-digit percentage gains.
KOSPI 2,127.97 0.33 3.75 Alternatively, seven (7) of the group posted losses, paced by
S&P/ASX 200 4,940.60 1.62 4.12 Alliance Global Group, Inc. [pse: AGI, php11.30] with -5.2%.
ALL ORDINARIES 5,036.50 1.65 3.91 The list includes Manila Electric Company [pse: MER,
NZ50 3,445.27 -0.20 4.12
php259.80], Globe Telecoms, Inc. [pse: GLO, php844.00],
SET 1,082.69 1.72 4.83
JKCI 3,741.81 0.93 1.03
Aboitiz Equity Ventures, Inc. [pse: AEV, php41.50], ABS-CBN
BSESN 19,451.40 0.16 -5.16 Corporation [pse: ABS, php42.00], Ayala Corporation [pse: AC,
Straits Times 3,187.31 2.14 -0.09 php394.00] and Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. [pse:
KLCI 1,557.49 0.14 2.54 TEL/ nyse: PHI, php2,346.00]
HO CHI MINH 424.29 -7.60 -12.46
The biggest development in the market's internal numbers is
presented by the turn-around in net foreign activity which moved into positive, aided substantially by a huge block sale
Tuesday involving shares of Energy Development Corporation [pse: EDC], Manila Water Corporation [pse: MWC], Banco de
Oro Universal Bank [pse: BDO] and AGI. (mostly AGI)

Average daily net value turnover likewise improved, rising 1.25% to php4.478 billion compared to week 13's mean of
php4.423 billion. Nevertheless, this remains 2.7% less than the 2010 full year daily average turnover. On the other hand,
volume turnover narrowed marginally to 2.134 billion versus 2.179 billion a week ago. This even as the number of issues
traded per session climbed to 174 from 171 based on a 14-period moving average.

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO
CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT
REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY
INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-
WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
Outlook for Week15_April 11 to April 15_TD 071-075
2 of 3

Another impressive statistic that developed in the week just

passed is the AD Line which improved 15% to -445 from -527, ADL 2011
such improvement accompanying, and thus validating, the 200
2.7% index advance. The measure is now approaching the 100
February peak of -427 with a coincident index reading of 0

7-M
4-M
1-M
8-M
3,866.38, just below what was then a major resistance range

n
n
n
n
n

4-A
1-Ja
7-Ja
4-Ja
1-Ja
3-Ja
-100

p
b
b
b
b
e
e
e
e
7-F
4-F
1-F
8-F
a
a
a
a
r
r
r
r
r
at 3,870 – 3,900. It has bettered the most recent top of -541

0
1
2
3

1
2
2

1
2
2
-200
last March 4th when the index settled at 3,882.71. -300
-400
The market's STO(14,3,3) has pulled back after nearing the -500
maximum value of 100 although it remains in overbought -600
territory at 97.63. RSI(14) is above the 70-line while still -700
pointing north, but at a lesser slope. -800

However, even as the daily chart suggests a near-term sell

with the index still deep in overbought area, a reckoning
from the weekly chart leaves a lot of room for an upside,
with momentum just building up.

The two parallel lines drawn on the topmost chart to the

left indicates two critical, if not major, pullback lines –
4,130 and 3,870, which translates to medium- and long-
term support levels. Alternatively, these are levels that
should hold if confidence in equities, at least among the
chartists school of thought, is to be sustained.

The two bottom charts show STO(14,3,3) at 48.98, still

below but poised to break above the “bullish” 50-line and
still 30-indicator points under the overbought mark. On the
other hand, MACD(12,29,6) shows the gap between the line
and the signal line has narrowed over the last two weeks
and is in fact, suggesting the probability of an upside
penetration of the signal line – yet, another signal to enter
the market on the buy side.

Only four (4) of the above-tabled global markets have yet to better their 2010-closing levels. Our southeast Asian neigbor
Vietnam lost -7.5% last week, widening year-to-date losses to -12.46%. Singapore, Taiwan and Bombay are also sustaining
losses. Japan, which suffered yet another 7.4 magnitude earthquake Thursday afternoon, has yet to recover lost footing,
although the Nikkei posted thin week-on-week gains. Europe and the US continue to lead, although Shanghai tops the list
with a 7.5% advance through Friday.

TRADE INFLUENCES FOR WEEK 15

The week opens with expectations the sustained optimism of the last two weeks will spill-over. The macro horizon is
fraught with danger signals, however, notwithstanding encouraging data from the US economy showing the recovery has
gained a firmer foothold.

In the US, the week's round of high impact economic data begins on Tuesday with the release of the trade balance for April.
The deficit has widened in the last two months, with the actual figure coming in worse than forecast. The present
consensus is for a narrowing to -$44.1B from March's -$46.3B. Retail sales is up on Wednesday with anticipations of flat
growth. This number is indicative of the pace of consumer activity. Results for the first three months have been erratic.
On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the all-important Initial Jobless Claims will be released. The former is seen
to advance at a slower 1.2% pace compared to March's 1.6%, while the latter is projected to show a further improvement in
the labor front, with claims narrowing to an annual pace of 379k. Finally, on Friday, Core CPI and Consumer Sentiment are
seen to be the principal source of motivation for equity investors, in particular and the financial markets in general. Note
that the outlook generally ranges from flat to moderate improvements. The same is seen to reflect on trading activity.

Meanwhile, in Europe, eyes will be focused on German Economic Sentiment due out Tuesday. Watchers expect the number
to slip a bit from March's result, sustaining the trend for the year. Of course, one should not forget about the still

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO
CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT
REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY
INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-
WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.
ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION
GF EC-058B East Tower, PSE Center, Exchange Road, Ortigas Center, Pasig City, PHILIPPINES 1605 (632)687-5071 (trunk)
Outlook for Week15_April 11 to April 15_TD 071-075
3 of 3

unresolved problem of Portugal who finally admitted last week that it will require a bail-out. So far, two of the P.I.I.G.S.
nations have dipped into the soon-to-be-replaced European Financial Stability Fund – Greece and Ireland. The other
economies after Portugal that teeter on the same path are Italy and Spain. Europe has been struggling to bring debt-to-
deficit ratios back to the EU regulation/norm-cum-requirement-for-membership level of 3.0%. The fall of Portuguese and
Greek debt's sovereign rating to below investment grade over the last two weeks have understandably sent jitters and has
led investors to question the situation.

Closer to home, in Asia, China, now the world's second largest economy, will release its trade balance numbers, projected
to show narrower deficit. The entire week will be relatively easy with CPI change slated Friday. Some of the concerns over
inflation have eased, as the market gains a modicum of confidence that China will be able to rein in inflationary pressures
without sacrificing growth. GDP is to be reported also on Friday and is seen to have expanded, but at a slower 9.5% pace
compared to the prior period's 9.8%.

Also coming into focus by Thursday, is the G7 meeting in Washington on Thursday with the membership tackling a whole
range of economic issues. The Japanese earthquake is in the agenda. Earlier, the price tag on the rehabilitation and
reconstruction efforts was pegged at about $80 billion.

The local market will try to ride on last week's momentum but we expect selling to intensify as the market puts some space
from the 4,200-line. Little by little, investors will have to take a closer look at prospective Q1 numbers. Given the
unanticipated events during the period, we maintain that the numbers may be less, year-on-year. We will be keeping a
close watch on critical lines defined in the “trading guide”, attached to this report.

DISCLAIMER: THE MATERIAL CONTAINED IN THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT IS NOT TO BE REPRODUCED OR COPIED OR MADE AVAILABLE TO OTHERS. UNDER NO
CIRCUMSTANCES IS IT TO BE CONSIDERED AS AN OFFER TO SELL OR A SOLICITATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY. WHILE THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, WE DO NOT
REPRESENT THAT IT IS ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND IT SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, WE SHALL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR AMENDING, CORRECTING OR UPDATING ANY
INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. SOME OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS REPORT ARE NOT NECESSARILY OPINIONS OF ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION ON THE CREDIT-
WORTHINESS OR INVESTMENT PROFILE OF THE COMPANY OR THE INDUSTRIES MENTIONED.