Egypt - Investors Guide

CICR | EGYPT | STRATEGY
Mona Mansour
Mona.Mansour@cich.com.eg
James Kostoris
James.Kostoris@cich.com.eg
Mark Rorison
Mark.Rorison@cich.com.eg
Ayman Amer
7 April 2011 | CICR Strategy Ayman.Amer@cich.com.eg
EGYPT – INVESTORS GUIDE Recent recommendation changes

Defensives back in vogue as downgrades take root
Upgrade Date
Key themes
 SMFR – Sell to Strong Buy 16-Jan-11
If a week is a long time in politics, try 3 months! Indeed, in the 12 weeks since our last Investor’s Guide  MOIL – Buy to Strong Buy 23-Feb-11
publication, Egypt and much of the region has been transformed – politically, socially and, for the moment,  EMOB – Sell to Underweight 21-Mar-11
economically. Having seen a year-end rally lift Egypt to one of the regions strongest performing markets in
2010, widespread social unrest, mass protest, sporadic violence and the ousting of the Mubarak regime have Downgrade Date
transformed the immediate outlook. The EGX 30 is down 23.41% year to date, well-behind other regional
and global benchmarks – Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul is 1.09% weaker, Qatar’s DSM Index is off 2.14% while  EGTS – Hold to Sell 22-Feb-11
the leading bourses of the US, Europe and Asia (ex Japan) have actually gained since January 1st.  NSGB – Hold to Underweight 2-Mar-11
 HELI – Hold to Sell 6-Mar-11
So, despite the best efforts of the Middle East (political unrest) and Japan (earthquake/tsunami), there  UASG – Buy to Sell 7-Mar-11
 CSAG – Hold to Sell 10-Mar-11
remains a cautiously bullish tone to the global economy: the MSCI EM is up 15.1% for the year while the
 IRAX – Strong Buy to Hold 15-Mar-11
MSCI world is 10.5% to the good. Seen in this context, Egypt’s journey south really has been a lonely one.  CIEB – Strong Buy to Underweight 16-Mar-11
Still, a glass half-empty to one is half-full to another and, though the immediate economic outlook remains  SMFR – Strong Buy to Sell 23-Mar-11
uncertain (and is likely to do so until the political waters clear) Egypt’s fundamental growth story remains  ESRS – Strong Buy to Sell 24-Mar-11
intact. Opportunities are certainly there for those bold enough to grasp them.
Cement is the best sector year-to-date, up 6.7% mainly on the back of SCEM and MCQE’s dividend-driven For more information please contact: research@cich.com.eg
rebound on the resumption of trading on March 23rd. The defensive Mills, Telecom Services and
Pharmaceuticals sectors have also proved themselves robust. Overall though, it has been a challenging few Head Office:
months. Growth forecasts, earnings estimates and stock recommendations have all seen downward revisions. 3rd Floor 8 Nadi El Seid St.,
Indeed, since our last publication, downgrades for the latter outnumber upgrades by 3:1. Dokki,
Giza, Egypt
In terms of our monthly stock calls MOIL, SUGR and OCIC have been added to our basket of favoured stocks
for April, joining the still-hot ORTE and OLGR. TMGH and CIEB meanwhile have been removed from our list
while the stunning change in Egypt’s political landscape, and the ousting of the Mubarak regime, has Telephone:
transformed the outlook for ESRS, which now faces a host of corruption allegations and lower estimates. (+202) 333 856 93 – (+202) 333 862 59
ESRS is not the only ‘problem-child’ though – both PHDC and EGTS are embroiled in Mubarak-era land- Fax: (+202) 333 856 90
disputes and, like ESRS, face reductions in their top/bottom line estimates.
This report has been prepared by CI Capital Research, a 100%-owned subsidiary of CIB.
Disclosures and details pertaining to stock ratings on last page. Page 1
April 7, 2011| Egypt | Investors Guide
Table of Contents
Round-Up | January 2011 3
Stock Calls | April 2011 | In Favour 4
Stock Calls | April 2011 | Out of Favour 5
Top Down 6
Bottom Up 9
Market Investors 15
Automotive 16
Banking 17
Cement 18
Ceramics, Paints & Chemicals 19
Consumer Goods 20
Contracting & Fertilisers 21
Engineering & Cables 22
Food & Beverages 23
Housing & Real Estate 24
Hydrocarbons & Related Services 25
Media & IT 26
Mills 27
Pharmaceuticals 28
Steel 29
Telecom Services 30
Transport & Logistics 31
CICR Macro Figures & Coverage Universe 32

CI Capital Coverage Universe 33
CICR Publications | Jan-Mar 2011* 35
CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Investors Guide
Egypt/MENA Price MoM YTD Global Price MoM YTD
Round-Up | January-March 2011 EGX 30

EGX 70
5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41%
613.1 14.13% -15.03%
U S (S&P 500)
U K (FTSE 100)
1,335.3
6,004.8
1.07%
0.23%
6.17%
1.76%
EGX 100 963.5 8.90% -17.38% Japan (N ikkei 225) 9,615.6 -10.08% -6.00%
Market volatile, volumes down: The market resumed trading on March 23rd, 2011 following a closure of 37 working days. EFG H ermes 536.3 -0.80% -19.18% Germany (Dax ) 7,179.1 -0.01% 3.82%
Upon reopening, all EGX indices fell c. 9% before cutting their losses on the second day. The EGX 30 is currently down 23.41% C IBC 100 311.9 n/a 14.90% C hina (Shang Comp.) 2,967.4 0.85% 5.67%
year to date (YTD), well behind other regional and global benchmarks. Cement is the best performing sector of the last two KSA (Tadawul) 6,548.4 14.69% -1.09% MSCI Arabia n/a n/a 0.00%
weeks, mainly due to SCEM and MCQE’s stunning dividend-driven rebound on March 23rd’s reopening. Mills, Telecom Services Abu Dhabi (ADSMI) 2,590.1 2.38% -4.77% MSCI EM 1,193.1 4.80% 3.63%
and Pharmaceuticals have also proved themselves robust. Compared with our key benchmark, MSCI EM is up 15.1% for the Kuwait (KSE) 6,303.6 2.54% -9.37% MSCI BRIC 375.2 5.08% 5.28%
year, while the MSCI world is up 10.5%. Seen in this context, Egypt’s journey south truly has been a lonely one. As market Qatar (DSM) 8,496.3 13.45% -2.14% MSCI World 1,345.6 -0.21% 5.12%
investors go, retail and local investors were net buyers, while foreigners and institutions were net sellers over the last two Currencies
weeks. In addition, the value of trading made by institutions witnessed a significant increase to 62%. EGP vs. U SD 6.0 0.97% 2.59% EGP vs. EU R 8.5 2.69% 9.07%
T-Bills Issued Yield MoM Commodities Price MoM YTD

Welcome Back EGX! 91-day 5-Apr 11.10 n/a Oil (WTI, p/b) 108.0 3.44% 18.20%
182-day 5-Apr 11.95 n/a Gold ($/oz) 1,447.8 1.36% 2.05%
Stocks with international presence dominate our monthly picks: Maridive & Oil Services [MOIL] joined our top picks list 266-day 5-Apr 12.17 n/a C opper ($/mt) 9,311.3 -5.82% -3.51%
for April, given rising oil prices and the company’s heavy international operations, with 90% of revenue generated in 371-day 5-Apr 12.48 n/a N atural Gas (pence/Btu) 1,579.6 -2.70% -3.42%
international markets. The company recently signed a 5-year MoU with the American Canyon Offshore LTD – owned by Helix *Relative to previous auction. Wheat ($/bushel) n/a n/a n/a
– to provide services in deep water exploration, namely in the Mediterranean. Moreover, MOIL is a USD-denominated stock OE MM Funds NAV* MoM YTD OE Equity Funds NAV* MoM YTD
with 97% of its earning collected in USD, which helps to hedge against local currency fluctuations. Orascom Telecom Holding C IB (Osoul) 163.4 1.4% 2.0% ABC Bank Fund 77.6 2.0% -17.5%
[ORTE] is another top pick, with a diversified portfolio through its operation in multiple international markets. April 14th marks a Blom Bank Fund 111.8 1.4% 2.0% Pioneers Fund I 88.6 1.0% -12.2%
key day for the stock, as CICR anticipates the approval of Wind Telecom’s plan to merge with VimpleCom; majority Piaeus Bank Fund 11.4 1.3% 2.0% Banque Misr 2 43.3 -0.7% -8.5%
acceptance of the proposed refinance plan; and approval of increasing ORTE’s authorized capital to EGP14bn up from Arab Inv eestment Bank 10.6 1.3% 1.9% Piraeus Bank Fund 90.8 -0.9% -12.1%
EGP7.5bn. This should reflect positively on the stock’s performance. Moreover, Orascom Construction Industries [OCIC]’s Misr Money Market 17.1 1.3% 1.9% AAIB (Shield) 103.6 -1.0% -10.6%
treasury shares’ buy-back through April 21st should support it. The company also stands to benefit from rising fertilizers prices OE = Open ended. *At 31-Mar-11 Sources: Bloomberg Professional, CBE & EIMA
and the M&A opportunity afforded to it by a strong cash position. Egypt | Sector Breakdown
SUGR and OLGR are also “in-favor” this month: The approved DPS of EGP1.25 should bode well for Delta Sugar [SUGR]. Cement (5)
Mills (7)
Adding to this is the company’s higher sugar selling prices of EGP4,400/ton, up from EGP3,549/ton a year ago. With talks of Telecom Services (3)
Electrolux AB’s acquisition by Olympic Group [OLGR], the latter’s shares have been revitalized after being put on hold, Pharmaceuticals (3)
reflecting positively on the stock. The deal is expected to take shape in 2Q11. Hydrocarbons & Related Services (1)
Food & Beverages (5)
Transport & Logistics (4)
The “Mubarak Effect” puts ESRS, PHDC and EGTS “out-of-favor”: The recent cancellation of Palm Hills Developments Ceramics (4)
Co. [PHDC]’s 190-feddan contract, on top of cases raised for annulling other land contracts, should pressure down the stock. Media & IT (3)
Adding to this is the accusation against the company’s Chairman and CEO of wasting public funds, which should also weigh on Engineering & Cables (3)
Contracting (6)
the stock’s performance. Egyptian Resorts Company [EGTS] is another “out-of-favor” stock given the links of its founder and Fertilizers (3)
key owner to the ousted regime, while the risk of probable land withdrawal – given its deeply discounted price – puts the stock’s Banking (10)
performance at risk. The allegations facing Ezz Steel [ESRS] regarding its IRAX acquisition, corruption cases, and monopolistic Consumer Goods (5)
Chemicals & Paints (2)
practices should all reflect negatively on the stock. Housing & Real Estate (13)
Steel (3)
Automotive (1)
Ytd % MoM % -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
*Source: Bloomberg Sectors classified in line with CI Capital 100 . Number of securities iin sector in brackets.
CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 3

April 7, 2011| Egypt | Investor’s Guide
Stock Calls | April 2011 | In Favour

What's Hot… 06-Apr-11
Company Key Numbers Key Themes
Maridive & Oil Services Analyst/s: Noran Ali
Ticker — MOIL TP (USD) — 4 • Strengthening oil prices.

Mkt. C ap (EGPmn) — 6,183 +/- to TP (% ) — 18.34% • Generates 90% of its rev enues internationally - minimal country ex posure.
EGX 30 — Yes Technical Target — 3.8 • A USD-denominated company - with 97% of earnings collected in USD.
Recommendation — Strong Buy Stop Loss — 3.3 • Expanding backlog reaching USD450mn till 2012 - up from USD408mn.
• Recent signature of a 5-y ear MoU with the American Canyon Offshore LTD owned by
Helix to prov ide serv ices in deep water ex ploration - namely in the Mediterranean.
Orascom Telecom Analyst/s: Amr Hussein Elalfy, CFA/Yehia El Sherbiny
Ticker — ORTE TP (USD) — 5.5 • An anticipated approval of Wind Telecom's announced plan to merge with VimpleCom and
Mkt. C ap (EGPmn) — 23,764 +/- to TP (% ) — 44.58% the expected majority acceptance on the proposed refinance plan at the AGM on April 14th.
EGX 30 — Yes Technical Target — 5.9 • An anticipated acceptance of increasing ORTE's authorized capital to EGP14bn at the
Recommendation — Strong Buy Stop Loss — 4.15 EGM on April 14th.
• Exposure to international markets - ensuring a diversified portfolio.
Olympic Group Analyst/s: Ingy El-Diwany
Ticker — OLGR TP (EGP) — 45.3 • Talks are back regarding Electrolux acqusition of OLGR.
Mkt. C ap (EGPmn) — 2,142 +/- to TP (% ) — 27.07% • The acquisition is expected to be materialized in 2Q11.
EGX 30 — No Technical Target — 42.5 • Demand for consumer goods started to pick-up by end of March.
Recommendation — Hold Stop Loss — 33
OCI Analyst/s: Muhammad El Ebrashi
Ticker — OCIC TP (EGP) — 286.9 • Rising fertiliser prices - especially that OCIC has a cost advantage.
Mkt. C ap (EGPmn) — 51,127 +/- to TP (% ) — 17.25% • OCIC has the opportunity for M&A - especially that it has a strong cash position.
EGX 30 — Yes Technical Target — 275 • Buy back of treasury shares by OCIC should support the stock.
Recommendation — Buy Stop Loss — 220
Delta Sugar Analyst/s: Mirette Mohamed Ghozzi
Ticker — SUGR TP (EGP) — 26.5 • A DPS of EGP1.25 - referring to a high single-digit dividend yield.
Mkt. C ap (EGPmn) — 2,542 +/- to TP (% ) — 28.89% • Fix ing sugar selling price at EGP4,400/ton vs. EGP3,549/ton last year.
EGX 30 — No Technical Target — 27 • Negotiations to buy a piece of land for the new factory in Kafr El-Sheikh instead of the
Recommendation — Strong Buy Stop Loss — 19.5 previous trials to buy it in El-Sharkey a.
*TP = Target Price Source: CICR, Bloomberg.
CI Capital | Egypt | Equity Research Page 4

April 7, 2011| Egypt | Investor’s Guide
Stock Calls | April 2011 | Out of Favour

And what's Not… 06-Apr-11
Company Key Numbers Key Themes
Palm Hills Dev. Analyst/s: Hany Mohamed Samy
Ticker — PHDC TP (EGP) — 7.6 • The recent cancellation of a tract of land of 190 feddan representing 1.7% of PHDC's
Mkt. C ap (EGPmn) — 2,705 +/- to TP (% ) — 194.57% land bank.
EGX 30 — Yes • Allegations regarding other tracts of land that represent 3% of PHDC land bank.
Recommendation — Strong Buy • PHDC chairman and CEO accusation of wasting public funds.
• PHDC will reduce its construction budget in 2011 from EGP2bn to EGP1bn.
• Reduction in top line and bottom line estimates for 2011.
Ezz Steel Analyst/s: Hany Mohamed Samy
Ticker — ESRS TP (EGP) — 12 • The allegations facing ESRS relating to corruption cases and monopolistic practices.
Mkt. C ap (EGPmn) — 5,666 +/- to TP (% ) — 15.05% • The accusation that ESRS' acquisition of IRAX is v oid.
EGX 30 — Yes • Expected lower demand for steel - flat and rebars.
Recommendation — Sell • Reduction in 2011 revenues and bottom line.
Egyptian for Tourism Resorts Analyst/s: Hany Mohamed Samy
Ticker — EGTS TP (EGP) — 1.2 • An expectation of nil land sales in 2011

Mkt. C ap (EGPmn) — 1,302 +/- to TP (% ) — -3.23% • The political link of EGTS founder to the ousted regime puts the stock's performance at risk.
EGX 30 — Yes • The current investigations regarding the GoE's sale of prime land locations at a deeply
Recommendation — Hold discounted price risks EGTS land bank.
• Reducing our top line estimates in 2011 and shift in the bottom line to a loss.
*TP = Target Price Source: CICR, Bloomberg.

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Investor’s Guide
Top Down
I. Performance
MSCI Indices Last Price MoM % 3M% YoY% YTD% MSCI Indices Last Price MoM % 3M% YoY% YTD% EGX 30 vs. MSCI Emerging Markets | 52 Weeks
Middle East Selected Other
MSCI Emerging Markets EGX 30
MSCI UAE 209.0 17.12 -6.71 -5.46 -14.48 MSCI France 1,677.0 2.37 10.08 12.41 7.44 9,000
MSCI Qatar 755.1 12.82 -4.15 -1.27 15.72 MSCI South Africa 832.2 2.16 0.66 0.21 12.79
8,500
MSCI Israel 279.3 5.05 -1.27 -0.88 -7.64 MSCI Germany 1,874.7 1.89 9.31 9.60 17.93
MSCI US 1,273.8 0.99 4.54 6.06 12.63 8,000
MSCI Jordan 255.6 0.92 -8.92 -7.71 -15.54
MSCI Bahrain 250.5 -0.19 -1.89 -4.05 -20.73 MSCI UK 1,199.1 -0.40 3.75 5.39 10.55 7,500
MSCI Japan 2,299.1 -11.94 -8.17 -7.88 -3.28
MSCI Oman 847.5 -1.03 -13.00 -11.13 -7.32 7,000
By Region
MSCI Egypt 1,149.2 -1.50 -22.15 -21.52 -18.76
MSCI Arabia n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 6,500
MSCI Saudi Arabia 570.8 -6.34 -7.19 -15.75 26.61
MSCI EM LatAm 4,710.3 3.45 0.83 2.09 10.07 6,000
MSCI Morocco 419.4 -6.36 -6.70 -2.82 2.79
MSCI EM Asia 482.38 4.96791 1.87755 3.03082 15.8009
Asia (Ex Japan) 5,500
MSCI EM EMEA 519.3 6.94 14.91 15.40 21.72
MSCI Philippines 726.4 9.46 -2.01 -1.61 18.79 5,000
MSCI EM 1,193.1 4.80 2.77 3.63 15.10
MSCI India 777.7 6.86 -3.33 -4.14 6.26 4,500
MSCI EMF 422.0 4.56 2.43 4.14 17.42
MSCI South Korea 606.9 5.14 1.55 3.38 22.38
MSCI World 1,345.6 -0.21 4.71 5.12 10.54 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11
MSCI Indonesia 4,612.3 5.13 -0.76 1.45 14.39
MSCI China 70.4 4.84 3.00 5.74 7.96
EGX 30 vs. Benchmarks | index Returns EGX 30 vs. MSCI Emerging Markets | PER (T12M)
MSCI Malay sia 574.7 2.92 -0.75 2.51 17.04
MSCI Pakistan 325.5 -1.12 -0.90 -0.09 10.04 MSCI Egypt MSCI Emerging Markets MSCI World EGX 30/MXEF MSCI Emerging Markets EGX 30
MSCI Taiw an 309.1 -1.71 -3.29 -3.17 7.93 20% 20x 140%
Eastern Europe 15% 18x
120%
MSCI Turkey 945,991.9 10.36 -3.79 0.14 11.40 10% 16x
MSCI Russia 705.8 6.90 17.74 17.74 22.96 14x 100%
5%
MSCI Czech Republic 365.2 5.99 5.57 8.19 -1.84
12x 80%
South Am erica 0%
10x
MSCI Chile 2,760.6 5.15 -1.97 -5.12 30.70 -5% 60%
8x
MSCI Mex ico 6,614.2 3.96 0.69 2.17 17.29 -10%
6x 40%
MSCI Brazil 3,898.2 3.51 1.68 3.64 5.23
-15% 4x
MSCI Argentina 3,321.0 2.03 -7.75 -7.05 47.26
-20% 20%
2x
Each section sorted in descending order on a MoM basis.
-25% 0x 0%
Sources (for all) : MSCI Barra & Bloomberg
WoW MoM 3M YoY Ytd Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11

II. Top Down | Valuation

PE 09 PE 10 PE 11e PE12e PBV 09 PBV 10 PBV 11e PBV 12e EV/EBITDA 10 EV/EBITDA 11e
CICR Coverage Universe 12.7x 11.5x 10.8x 9.2x 2.0x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x 7.0x 6.9x
EGX 30 Index 12.1x 13.9x 8.5x n/a 1.6x 1.5x 1.2x n/a 5.5x 5.6x
MSCI Egy pt 9.9x 14.1x 8.4x n/a 2.0x 1.6x 1.2x n/a 5.1x 5.4x
MSCI Emerging Markets 17.2x 13.6x 11.8x n/a 1.7x 2.0x 1.8x n/a 7.5x 8.0x
Egypt vs. emerging market & global peers | Return on equity (ROE) vs. Price to Book (PBV)
Price to Book (PBV)
3.5x
India Indonesia
3.0x
US
2.5x Mexico
Malaysia
Australia
2.0x Canada China
Saudi Arabia
Hong Kong Qatar
Taiwan
Tunisia UK
1.5x Poland Oman
Japan Brazil
Germany
Bahrain Egypt Russia
1.0x France
0.5x UAE
0.0x
5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 21% 23%
Return on Equity (ROE)
* Bloomberg figures based on estimates of next 4 quarters (F12m). Source: CICR Database & Bloomberg
Egypt vs. emerging market & global peers | 2011 price earnings ratio (PER) vs. estimated net income growth (2011)
Net Income Growth
120%
100% Taiwan
Germany
80%
60% China
US Malaysia
Columbia
40% Thailand
Brazil India
Qatar Mexico
20% Oman
Saudi Arabia
Egypt Argentina Poland
Russia
0%
UAE
-20%
-40%
6.0x 8.0x 10.0x 12.0x 14.0x 16.0x 18.0x 20.0x
Price Earnings Ratio (PER)
* Bloomberg figures based on estimates of next 4 quarters (F12m). Source: CICR Database & Bloomberg

III. Top Down | Technical
EGX 30 Index EGX 70 Index
8000
850
7500 800
7000 750
700
6500
650
6000 600
5500 550
Resistance: 5650-5800 Resistance: 630-640-662
500
5000 Support: 5250-5000-4800 Support: 600-585-550
450
4500 400
Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
While the rebound in the EGX30 is impressive, it is still too early to declare that strong buyers have The index’s strong rebound from 463 to reach 621 returns our outlook to neutral. Nevertheless, it
returned. A period of consolidation is more likely next month, with a range between 5250- 5000 and remains below 630, where the 50% of 794/463 moves down; keeping the sideways case likely. The first
5650- 5800. On the downside, support below 5250 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 5000 sign of support is at 600-585, which could hold signs of a resumed upward rebound. Conversely, if it fails
level support, while only a break below 4800 will confirm that a downward trend has resumed. to hold, the next support sign lies in the area just above 550.
EGX 100 Index MSCI EM Index
1300 1200
1150
1200
1100
1100
1050
1000 1000
950 Resistance: 1169-1190-1200
900 Resistance: 980-1000-1040
900 Support: 1136-1130-1125-1110-1104
800 Support: 943-929-910-885
850
700 800
The index continued recovery from 760, its 2-year low, clearing through the 885 level. While there is no The index’s recovery from 1072 extended as high as 1168 before starting a brief profit taking. Corrective
confirmation yet, at the least, an intraday top should be formed, and further retreat to 920-910 is likely for dips have left a succession of higher lows, hinting that the uptrend remains intact. A firm break of 1168-
the next few sessions. On the upside, the next resistance is at 1000, where is the 50% of 1250/760 1169 will elicit a stronger rise towards 1200. For the short term, we are abandoning our higher targets; in
move down followed by 1040. case of a clear downward break of 1130. This would put us in the process of a wider sideways
consolidation formation, with ranges between 1130-1160 and 1130-1093.

Bottom Up
I. Performance
1 Month Av. 6 Month Av.
By Price MoM 3M Ytd YoY By Turnover (000' USD) (000' USD) GDR's (London-listed) Curr. Last P/D† MoM 52W H 52W L
Top 5 Stocks Top 5 Stocks Top 5 Stocks
Ceramics & Porcelain 43.4% -14.4% 2.7% -3.9% Commercial International Bank* 12,357.2 10,214.6 Orascom Telecom* USD 3.83 3.4% 24.4% 7.25 2.92
Sinai Cement* 33.3% 15.7% 26.1% 6.4% Orascom Construction Industries* 7,570.5 7,206.3 Orascom Construction* USD 42.35 3.1% 21.2% 55.00 31.27
Glax oSmithKline Egy pt 29.6% -12.9% -10.3% 6.0% Talaat Mostafa Group* 5,644.7 4,073.7
Suez Cement USD 7.20 11.0% 10.8% 8.25 5.60
Central Egy pt Mills * 28.2% -8.5% -5.4% -20.1% EFG-Hermes Holding 4,747.8 3,840.0
CIB* USD 5.57 2.4% 4.9% 8.40 3.14
Egy ptian Saudi Finance Bank 27.9% -21.2% -9.9% 43.0% Orascom Telecom Holding* 4,149.0 10,295.0
Telecom Egy pt* USD 13.60 -6.7% 4.7% 18.22 10.04
Bottom 5 Stocks Top 5 Sectors Palm Hills Dev elopment* USD 5.30 134.7% 0.0% 6.00 4.00
Palm Hills Dev elopments * -44.8% -56.8% -57.6% -59.5% Telecom Serv ices (3) 2,300.8 4,436.4 Lecico Egy pt* USD 4.10 39.7% 0.0% 4.10 2.00
Ezz Steel* -32.8% -47.2% -45.4% -51.1% Banking (10) 1,446.8 1,466.6 EFG-Hermes USD 7.05 -1.86% -11.76% 15.00 6.72
Talaat Mostafa Group* -31.5% -47.5% -48.2% -42.6% Contracting (6) 1,340.5 1,836.0
GB Auto* -27.3% -35.8% -34.6% -21.0% Hy drocarbons & Related Serv ices (1) 1,219.2 949.3
† GDR trading at a Premium (P) or Discount (D) to local stock.
Misr Duty Free Shop -20.3% -32.9% -28.1% -17.5% Automotiv e (1) 846.2 645.6
* Calculated using an ex change rate of EGP5.955 to USD1.0.
1M Daily Av. 6M Av. Tnvr

COMI LCSW PHDC OCIC
By Price MoM 3M Ytd YoY By Volume (000' shrs) (000' USD)
ETEL EGX 30 ORTE
Top 5 Sectors Top 5 Stocks 13,500
Cement (5) 20.3% 3.6% 6.7% -11.9% Talaat Mostafa Group* 6,981.2 4,073.7 12,500
Mills (7) 15.6% -5.1% -3.2% -12.4% Orascom Telecom Holding* 5,836.8 10,295.0 11,500
Telecom Serv ices (3) 15.5% -5.6% -2.7% -16.2% Egy ptian Resorts Company * 3,869.9 2,280.4
10,500
Pharmaceuticals (3) 14.1% -6.9% -4.6% 1.9% Commercial International Bank* 2,280.4 10,214.6
9,500
Hy drocarbons & Related Serv ices (1) 10.5% -6.1% -5.1% -12.6% Palm Hills Dev elopments * 1,884.0 1,012.0
8,500
Bottom 5 Sectors Top 5 Sectors
7,500
Engineering & Cables (3) 7.3% -16.3% -12.6% -23.1% Telecom Serv ices (3) 2,175.5 4,436.4
6,500
Ceramics (4) 9.2% -14.9% -8.1% -0.7% Housing & Real Estate (13) 1,080.4 1,064.4
5,500
Food & Bev erages (5) 10.3% -10.3% -6.8% -7.3% Engineering & Cables (3) 599.7 746.6
4,500
Pharmaceuticals (3) 14.1% -6.9% -4.6% 1.9% Hy drocarbons & Related Serv ices (1) 389.4 949.3
3,500
Mills (7) 15.6% -5.1% -3.2% -12.4% Steel (3) 311.6 936.6
‡ Turnov er & Volume calculated on a daily av erage basis. Source: Bloomberg (all)
* Activ ely cov ered by CI Capital EGX suspended between 27th Jan - 23rd March 2011.
† Number of securities in sector in brackets.

II. Bottom Up | Key Sectors (Last 6 months)

Banking Cement Fertilisers
EGX 30 Banking (W) Banking (UW) EGX 30 Cement (W) Cement (UW) EGX 30 Fertilisers (W) Fertilisers (UW)
9,500 7,500 8,000
9,000
7,000 7,500
8,500
8,000 6,500 7,000
7,500
6,000 6,500
7,000
6,500 5,500 6,000
6,000 5,000 5,500

5,500
4,500 5,000
5,000
4,500 4,000 4,500
Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
Housing & Real Estate Steel Telecom Services
EGX 30 Real Estate (W) Real Estate (UW) EGX 30 Steel (W) Steel (UW) EGX 30 Telecoms (W) Telecoms (UW)
9,000 7,500 7,500
8,500
7,000 7,000
8,000
7,500 6,500
6,500
7,000 6,000
6,500 6,000
5,500
6,000
5,500
5,500 5,000
5,000
5,000 4,500
4,500
4,000 4,500 4,000
Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
(W) – Weighted; (UW) – Unweighted. Sector's classified according to CI Capital 100 Index, except Housing & Real Estate which also includes Touristic Real Estate.
Each sector's performance is calculated on a weekly basis in accordance with Bloomberg weekly-interval figures. Sector constituents weighted by market-cap and re-based to EGX 30.

III. Bottom Up | Valuation

CICR Coverage Universe
By PE Ticker EGX 30 2010 2011 2012 By PBV Ticker EGX 30 2010 2011 2012
Top 5 Top 5
Al-Ezz Ceramics ECAP No n/a 45.46x 17.67x Heliopolis Hous. & Dev . HELI No 6.83x 8.92x 7.87x
Ezz Steel ESRS Yes 17.82x 42.68x 21.24x Nasr City H&D MNHD No 9.62x 8.68x 7.79x
Nasr City H&D MNHD No 31.73x 35.59x 30.74x United Arab Stev edoring UASG No 4.87x 6.11x 8.13x
Canal Shipping Agencies CSAG No 23.29x 32.69x 29.94x Misr Cement (Qena) MCQE No 3.33x 5.39x 5.36x
EFIC EFIC No 33.13x 27.19x 13.02x Maridiv e & Oil Serv ices MOIL Yes 3.84x 3.37x 3.13x
Bottom 5 Bottom 5
Palm Hills Dev . PHDC Yes 5.67x 2.33x 1.50x TMG Holding TMGH Yes 0.60x 0.26x 0.41x
Housing & Dev elopment Bank HDBK No 7.08x 4.67x 3.67x Al-Ezz Ceramics ECAP No 0.87x 0.49x 0.74x
Misr Beni Suef Cement MBSC No 8.66x 5.19x 5.49x Ray a Holding RAYA No 1.63x 0.51x 1.26x
TMG Holding TMGH Yes 6.30x 5.68x 5.07x Egy trans ETRS No 0.27x 0.52x 0.24x
Al-Arafa For Inv estment AIVC No 5.55x 5.94x 5.41x Palm Hills Dev . PHDC Yes 0.70x 0.57x 0.60x
By EBITDA m argin Ticker EGX 30 2010 2011 2012 EV/EBITDA Ticker EGX 30 2010 2011 2012
Top 5 Top 5
Alex andria Containers Handling ALCN No 63.7% 59.2% 59.9% Semad Misr SMFR No n/m 50.63x 40.04x
Misr Beni Suef Cement MBSC No 63.7% 58.3% 56.8% Heliopolis Hous. & Dev . HELI No 12.90x 24.93x 21.22x
Heliopolis Hous. & Dev . HELI No 59.4% 52.6% 50.9% Nasr City H&D MNHD No 21.46x 24.73x 24.08x
Sinai Cement SCEM No 48.9% 48.8% 46.6% Egy trans ETRS No 52.98x 13.65x 5.16x
Misr Cement (Qena) MCQE No 52.6% 47.8% 45.7% EFIC EFIC No 14.53x 11.90x 9.44x
Bottom 5 Bottom 5
Egy ptian for Tourism Resorts EGTS Yes -135.0% -262.7% 11.8% Telecom Egy pt ETEL Yes 1.79x 1.56x 1.11x
United Arab Stev edoring UASG No -284.1% -262.1% -208.7% Palm Hills Dev . PHDC Yes 4.70x 2.24x 1.33x
Canal Shipping Agencies CSAG No -5.6% -13.8% -12.2% Alex andria Mills AFMC No 4.41x 2.32x 1.59x
Semad Misr SMFR No -1.4% 2.8% 3.1% Misr Beni Suef Cement MBSC No 4.86x 2.51x 2.43x
South Cairo Mills SCFM No -5.1% 3.0% 3.0% Upper Egy pt Mills UEFM No 2.03x 2.66x 2.15x
3yr 5yr
Norm alised Net Incom e Ticker EGX 30 CAGR CAGR By Dividend Yield Ticker EGX 30 2010 2011 2012
Top 5 Top 5
Egy ptian for Tourism Resorts EGTS Yes 151.32% n/a Delta Sugar SUGR No 6.08% 12.58% 9.74%
Semad Misr SMFR No 80.44% n/a North Cairo Mills MILS No 8.28% 11.87% 11.99%
OCI OCIC Yes 66.50% 169.83% Misr Beni Suef Cement MBSC No 5.42% 11.10% 12.10%
Ezz Al-Dekheila IRAX No 27.13% 47.05% Sinai Cement SCEM No 15.63% 10.68% 8.72%
United Arab Stev edoring UASG No 23.89% 0.10% East Delta Mills EDFM No 10.45% 10.63% 11.31%
Bottom 5 Bottom 5
Palm Hills Dev . PHDC Yes -36.83% -27.58% EFIC EFIC No 0.21% 0.26% 0.54%
Egy trans ETRS No -34.28% -29.58% Ezz Steel ESRS Yes 1.68% 0.70% 1.41%
Housing & Dev elopment Bank HDBK No -21.29% -16.49% Nasr City H&D MNHD No 1.94% 2.18% 2.72%
Misr Beni Suef Cement MBSC No -16.61% -14.02% Canal Shipping Agencies CSAG No 3.49% 2.60% 2.84%
GB Auto AUTO No -15.58% 18.93% Heliopolis Hous. & Dev . HELI No 4.11% 2.73% 2.98%
Based on CICR univ erse. Where 3 y ears are displayed, all items sorted by 2011. Normalised net income sorted by 3 year CAGR. Sources: CICR Database (all)
CICR Coverage Universe | Beta (β)
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0

CICR coverage universe | 2011 PER vs. 3-year EPS CAGR (2009-12)
PE Ratio 2011
35x
CSAG
30x
EFIC
25x
HELI
CEFM
20x
IRAX
15x
EMOB OCIC
MCQE ALCN COMI NSGB

10x LCSW AUTO
WCDF ORTE
ETEL EDFM OLGR ETRS
UEFM MOIL
CIEB AIVC ORWE
EAST MILS PHAR AFMC RAYA
SCEM SWDY SUGR
5x MBSC HDBK
TMGH
PHDC
0x
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
3 -year CAGR EPS (2009-12)
EGTS & UASG PER not available; SMFR PER not meaningful; SMFR & ECAP 3-year CAGR not meaningful – so all excluded from above chart.
CICR coverage universe | Return on Equity (RoE) vs. Price to Book Value (PBV) F12m
Price to Book (PBV) 2011

10.0x
9.0x HELI
MNHD
8.0x
7.0x
6.0x
MCQE
5.0x
4.0x
EMOB MOIL
CSAG
3.0x IRAX ALCN
OCIC
SUGR
OLGR NSGB COMI
2.0x WCDFORTE CIEB SCEM
SMFR SWDY PHAR
EFIC LCSW
ETEL EAST MILS MBSC
1.0x ESRS ORWE EDFM UEFM
ETRS SCFM
CEFM RAYA
AIVC HDBK AUTO PHDC
ECAP TMGH AFMC
0.0x
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Return on Equity 2011
Sources: CICR Database (both)

IV. Bottom Up | Technical Analyst: Mohamed Elzayat
SUGR MOIL
EGP USD
26 4.5
24 Resistance: 3.47-3.56-3.67-3.80
Resistance: 22-23.24-25-27 4.0
22 Support: 3.30-3.20-3.12
Support: 20.50-19.50-18 3.5
20
18 3.0
16
2.5
14
12 2.0
The stock’s fall from 25 was contained at 18, and a subsequent rebound pushed the price through the The stock continued to move in a sideways consolidation below 3.55. Such consolidation is ongoing and
20.50 level, indicating the rebound’s ongoing nature. On the other hand, due to the volume decrease in likely developing into a bullish continuation pattern, which would be confirmed by a breakthrough at this
the last few sessions, some pullback is likely before breaking above the previous high of 21.80 towards level, bringing a stronger rise toward 3.80 and 4, successively. On the downside, a fall below 3.30 would
our next basic targets at 25 and 27. The first sign of support is at 20.50, followed by 19.50. invalidate our bullish view for the short term, prompting our next downside target at 3.12.
OCIC OLGR
EGP EGP
320 45
300
40
280
260 35
240
220 30
Resistance: 250-256.50-260-268.50 Resistance: 37.80-39.10-40.00-40.45
200 Support: 36.00-34.70-34.00-33.50
Support: 241.50-239-234-228 25
180
160 20
The stock’s outlook remains mixed. Despite a strong rebound from 184, it remains held back by strong The stock is fighting to stay above a 33.50 support level and build a new base following its last pullback
resistance at 250. However, it appears to be forming a short-term continuation pattern, which would be from 42.50. A clear upward break of 37.80 will confirm that a short term low has been reached, and a
confirmed by a break through the 250 level. In that case, our targets would be at 260 and then 275, further rise toward 42.50 should follow. On the downside, a drop below 33 would invalidate our short
successively. On the down side, stop loss should be positioned below 236 and in this case next target term rebound scenario, and in such a case further sideways will be in favor.
and important support levels are found at 220-217 area.

IV. Bottom Up | Technical (Cont.)
ORTE PHDC
EGP EGP
9 8
8 7
Resistance: 4.50-4.65-4.75-4.95
7 6
Support: 4.35-4.20-4.12
6 5
5 4 Resistance: 2.80-3.06-3.18
4 3 Support: 2.53-2.40
3 2
The stock remains below a 4.75 resistance and is retreating from there, while sideways consolidation is The stock's fall from 6.42 was contained at 2.40. Its subsequent rebound has turned the short term trend
expected in the next few sessions. Following consolidation, a strong rise is likely, and a break through sideways, with a range of 2.40-3.06. A firm break of 3.06 is needed to confirm the recent upward
this level will confirm consolidation’s completion. From there, a further rise should follow towards 5.25 rebound, heading toward 3.75. Otherwise, there remains risk of another fall, and a fall below 2.40 will
and 5.90 as basic targets. On the downside, short-term traders will set their stop loss below 4.15, while bring deeper decline toward the 2 zone.
medium-term investors should position their stop loss below 3.90.
EGTS ESRS
EGP EGP
27
3 Resistance: 1.38-1.53-1.63
Support: 1.25-1.12-1.06 22
2.5
2 17
Resistance: 10.90-11.30-11.55
1.5 12 Support: 10.35-10.10-9.50
1 7
After a brief recovery, EGTS has entered choppy waters trading above a 1.12 low. Further consolidation After the stock fell through the 18 level and the important support at 15.80 was broken, we have
cannot be ruled out, but the upside of recovery should be limited by 23.6% retracement of 2.21 to 1.12 at switched our view to negative, setting a target at 8.25-8. While some rebound would is likely before
1.38. In case of a clear upward break of 1.38, the next resistance will be at 1.53. On the downside, a breaking below 9.50 support, such a rebound would be limited to under 11.50 before the next leg
sustained break of the 1.12 support level will add credence to this case and bring about a deeper fall to downwards begins.
the 0.80-0.75 support level. Risk remains on the downside even in the case of a strong rebound.

Market Investors
Market participants (Net %) | Last 30 trading sessions to 3rd April 2011 EGX 30 | Monthly & annual volumes
Foreign Non Arabs Local Foreign Arabs Total Local Foreign Arab Foreign Non-Arab Retail Institution
Turnover EGX 30 % of total Net buyer/ % of total Net buyer/ % of total Net buyer/ % of total Net buyer/ % of total Net buyer/
5-Apr-11 By Month (EGPm n) Chng (%) turnover seller turnover seller turnover seller turnover seller turnover seller
4-Apr-11 Mar-10 24,289 2.62% 73.87% (275) 7.19% (96) 18.94% 371 46.84% (635) 53.16% 635
3-Apr-11 Apr-10 28,811 9.49% 69.45% (750) 12.23% (215) 18.32% 964 53.37% (256) 46.63% 256
31-Mar-11 May-10 23,276 -12.11% 75.76% (413) 6.51% 50 17.72% 361 50.70% (398) 49.30% 397
30-Mar-11 Jun-10 24,511 -7.88% 77.52% (197) 5.40% 694 17.08% (497) 42.27% (109) 57.73% 109
29-Mar-11 Jul-10 18,400 4.70% 80.33% (333) 3.95% (65) 15.72% 398 41.56% (353) 58.44% 353
Aug-10 17,304 1.45% 77.87% (660) 4.66% (176) 17.47% 837 45.11% (464) 54.89% 464
28-Mar-11
Sep-10 20,571 3.53% 80.61% (595) 4.63% 102 14.76% 493 44.99% (281) 55.01% 281
27-Mar-11
Oct-10 22,851 0.54% 81.15% (783) 5.36% 182 13.49% 601 50.75% (39) 49.32% 39
24-Mar-11 Nov -10 20,917 0.52% 76.43% (1,104) 4.35% (283) 19.22% 1,387 39.49% (427) 60.51% 427
23-Mar-11 Dec-10 19,633 6.52% 76.45% (671) 5.62% 75 17.93% 597 47.32% (306) 52.68% 306
27-Jan-11 Jan-11 22,283 -20.27% 65.57% 806 7.55% (459) 26.88% (346) 44.71% (574) 55.29% 574
26-Jan-11 Feb-11 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
24-Jan-11 Mar-11 6,998 6.24% 33.85% 151 9.11% (1) 57.03% (149) 27.78% 265 72.22% (265)
23-Jan-11 Turnover EGX 30 % of total Net buyer/ % of total Net buyer/ % of total Net buyer/ % of total Net buyer/ % of total Net buyer/
20-Jan-11 By Year (EGPm n) Chng (%) turnover seller turnover seller turnover seller turnover seller turnover seller
19-Jan-11 2007 290,560 51.29% 69.60% (11,379) 11.91% (7,374) 18.49% 18,327 58.23% (15,882) 41.77% 15,455
18-Jan-11 2008 383,118 -56.43% 68.94% (9,872) 9.59% 3,511 21.46% 6,361 57.35% (15,880) 42.66% 15,879
17-Jan-11 2009 356,988 32.00% 82.97% (1,198) 5.43% (3,928) 11.60% 5,204 58.87% 15,635 41.13% (15,715)
16-Jan-11 2010 271,406 15.03% 76.97% (6,625) 6.45% (7) 16.57% 6,631 47.90% (5,037) 52.11% 5,036
13-Jan-11 Ytd 30,841 -23.41% 58.08% 981 7.87% (457) 34.06% (524) 41.31% (258) 58.76% 258
12-Jan-11 Net sellers in brackets; all figures in EGPmn unless stated. Ytd figure as at 3rd April 2011 All sources: CICH & EGX Website
11-Jan-11
EGPbn
10-Jan-11 Retail Institution
EGX 30 Turnover - Last 12 months
35. 100%
6-Jan-11 90%
30.
5-Jan-11 80%
25. 70%
4-Jan-11 60%
20.
3-Jan-11 50%
15. 40%
2-Jan-11 10. 30%
30-Dec-10 20%
5.
10%
29-Dec-10 0. 0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Automotive
Automotive Sector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Automotive Mkt Cap Close at 52 Weeks Av. 6M Daily

Stock (USDmn) 5-Apr-11 MoM (%) Ytd (%) H L Vol. (000' USD)
AU TO 615.9 EGP 28.43 -27.25% -34.55% 55.00 25.21 645.6
Ahmed Abdel Ghani
Ahmed.Abdelghani@cich.com.eg
Review | March 2011

The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MoTI) has decided to postpone the Government of Egypt's (GoE’s) strategy to support
local automotive manufacturing. While this would raise the government’s production share of locally manufactured vehicles to over
45%, recent political unrest has forced the government to reprioritise and, ultimately, delay this plan. Originally due to begin in
February 2011, the plan held total incentives expected to reach EGP1.5bn. This news is likely to have a negative impact on the
auto-feeding industry. This is due to the fact that the GoE created the “1M2020” strategy as a means of gearing-up the sector and Sector 615.9 n/m -27.25% -34.55% n/a nla 645.6
thereby partially off-setting the gradual elimination of customs duties on imported completely-built-up (CBU) vehicles. The strategy EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
was aimed at raising Egypt’s production share of locally manufactured vehicles by over 45%. Indeed, under the plan, the GoE’s Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
consumer support mechanism would reduce the market price per vehicle running from 2010-2020 across two periods – 2010-2015
CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation
and 2016-2020. It would support consumer purchases of two classes of vehicle production, namely passenger cars less than
1600cc and Light and Medium Trucks, Pick-ups and Minibuses. The strategy was also designed to attract Original Equipment Target Upside PER†
Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
Manufacturers (OEMs) to invest in the Egyptian market and increase their models’ sales through the benefits of these incentives.
AU TO 58.10 104.4% Hold 21-Oct-10 13.9x 8.2x 3.5x
Preview | April 2011

The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is preparing to implement the third phase of the national taxi replacement program. This program
was announced in 2009 with a contribution from the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr and Nasser Social Bank, with two
phases having been implemented so far. The first phase of the program succeeded in replacing 22k vehicles, while the second only ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
replaced 13k, largely due to difficulties with advertising companies. * Date of last recommendation change.
† CICR projected PER 2011/12
GB Auto vs. Global peers | PER vs. EV/EBITDA 2011 GB Auto | Revenue & EBITDA 2008-12 Share Performance | 52 Weeks (rebased to EGX 30)
AUTO EGX 30
13,000
10x Lithia Motors Revenue (EGP mn) EBITDA Margin
9x (US) 12,000
Asbury 16,000 14%
8x 12.4%
Automotive (US) Mahindra (India) 14,000 11,000
12%
7x 10.3%
12,000 8.8% 10,000
6x GB Auto (Egypt) 10%
Peer Group
EV/EBITDA2011
5x Average 10,000 9.5% 8.8% 8% 9,000

4x Pendragon (UK) 8,000
6% 8,000
3x 6,000
2x UNIPRES 4% 7,000
4,000
(Japan)
1x 2,000 2% 6,000
0x
- 0% 5,000
4x 6x 8x 10x 12x 14x 16x 18x
2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e
PER 2011 4,000
Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
Source: Company Financials, Bloomberg & CICR

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Banking
Banking S ector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Banking Mkt Cap Close at 52 Weeks Av. 6M Daily

COMI 3,210.9 EGP 32.4 -11.21% -31.65% 47.70 29.08 10,214.6
Alia Abdoun
CIEB 589.4 EGP 12.23 -7.00% -22.50% 16.50 9.63 99.2
Alia.Abdoun@cich.com.eg EGBE 330.3 USD 1.65 15.38% 13.79% 1.90 0.92 144.6
SAUD 144.1 EGP 11.23 27.90% -9.87% 15.07 5.89 1,031.6
EXPA 208.7 EGP 8.63 15.68% -15.48% 11.25 6.06 65.6
Review | March 2011 FAIT 228.7 EGP 21.76 23.36% 3.77% 26.00 15.31 30.3
2010 showed signs of a pick-up in economic and banking activity with lending growth up 6%. Retail lending began to show some NRPD 150.5 EGP 4.48 7.95% -24.45% 6.67 3.74 687.2
HDBK 385.3 EGP 19.95 -12.96% -16.77% 27.30 18.00 416.1
momentum too, especially amongst our coverage universe. Moreover, banks have also started to show an improvement in non- NSGB 2,404.9 EGP 39.07 -8.65% -21.83% 52.50 27.27 1,969.2
interest income. COMI reported YoY net profit after tax (NPAT) growth of 15%, CIEB rose 13.3% while NSGB’s NPAT grew by CANA 234.8 EGP 6.99 -1.83% -22.16% 10.20 6.41 7.6
3.5% – though the latter shows underlying double digit growth upon the exclusion of provisions (which were net positive from
reversals in both years, but higher in reversals in 2009). Sector 7,887.5 n/m 4.86% -14.71% n/a nla 14,666.1
EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
Preview | April 2011 Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
Our bullish outlook for 2011 has changed following the January 25th Revolution. While we retain our positive outlook for longer- CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation
term growth, short-term instability and low visibility on the political front has led us to revise our immediate outlook. We now expect
Target Upside PER†
lending to slow in 2011 with banks shifting their focus to T-Bills, which have seen their yields rise with increasing government Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
expenditure and a rising budget deficit. Though the economic slowdown brings with it the risk of rising NPLs, we do not expect a COMI n/a n/a n/a 29-Mar-11 9.5x 10.1x 9.2x
strong deterioration in asset quality. CIEB 13.54 10.7% Underweight 16-Mar-11 7.9x 8.5x 7.9x
Regarding liquidity, we do not fear a ‘run’ on deposits as the Egyptian banking sector is one of the most liquid in the region and HDBK 30.15 51.1% Buy 9-Dec-10 7.1x 4.7x 3.7x
NSGB 43.29 10.8% Underweight 2-Mar-11 10.7x 9.7x 8.6x
better positioned than most to weather a shock (c.50% system LDR). Furthermore, core local funding remains strong, with 64% of
deposits coming from local households rather than riskier foreign sources. We do however expect a slowdown in the growth of
COMI not rated due to majority ownership of CIC H.
deposits and lending volumes, especially in 2011. On this basis, we have trimmed our 2011 earnings estimates for COMI, ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see above).* Date of last recommendation change.
NSGB and CIEB by an average of c.18% (HDBK has yet to release its 2010 earnings). This, combined with higher estimated cost † CICR projected PER 2011/12 Source: CICR Database
of equity, have driven valuations downwards.
Share Performance | 52 Weeks (rebased to EGX 30)
Local Banks vs. Regional Peers | PBV vs. ROE (F12m) Local Banks vs. Regional Peers | PER vs. 3yr EPS CAGR
COMI CIEB HDBK NSGB EGX 30
12,000
25% 25x
CIEB NSGB 11,000
EGBE
COMI 20x
20% NBB MARK 10,000
HDBK
QIIK ATW BCP
BBK
ATW SALAM 9,000
15% 15x ABK
AUB OIBB COMI
BCP
8,000
ROE 2011
PER 2011
KIB ABK BOUBYAN 10x NSGB

10%
CIEB 7,000
5% 5x
SALAM HDBK
6,000
0x 5,000
0%
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 3.5x 4.0x 4.5x 4,000
PBV (x) 2011 3 Year (2009-12) EPS CAGR
Source: Bloomberg & CICR

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Cement
Cement Sector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Cement Mkt Cap

(USDmn)
Close at
5-Apr-11 MoM (%) Ytd (%) H
52 Weeks
L
Av. 6M Daily
Vol. (000' USD)
Stock
MBSC 441.6 EGP 65.75 9.60% -9.16% 104.75 52.00 221.2
Ghada Refky Basma Shebeta MCQE 616.8 EGP 122.43 20.59% 21.80% 128.89 75.05 29.7
Ghada.Refky@cich.com.eg Basma.Shebeta@cich.com.eg SC EM 714.5 EGP 60.78 33.29% 26.07% 63.10 38.30 475.4
SVCE 393.0 EGP 4.75 25.33% -7.05% 8.05 3.42 950.5
SU CE 1,179.4 EGP 38.62 12.89% 1.63% 46.22 29.00 113.3
Review | March 2011
Cement consumption in March is expected to hold at February’s level of c.3mn tons – largely due to the disruption that hit several
local producers in March. Local ex-factory selling prices for February and March remained at nearly the same levels as January
2011, at EGP491/ton. Company-wise, Misr Beni Suef Cement [MBSC]’s 2010 net profits fell 22% year-on-year (YoY) to
EGP304mn – a decline largely attributable to MBSC's broken grinder, while Misr Cement (Qena) [MCQE]’s 2010 net profits grew
Sector 3,345.3 n/m 20.34% 6.66% n/a nla 1,790.0
22% year-on-year (YoY) to EGP428mn. In its AGM, MCQE approved a DPS of EGP16, with a dividend yield of 13%. Meanwhile,
Sinai Cement’s [SCEM's] stand-alone 2010 net profits grew 33% year-on-year (YoY) to EGP904mn. A one-time GoE refund of EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
EGP176mn for resource development fees added to the numbers, and SCEM's consolidated net profits reached EGP906mn, up Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
35% from 2009. In its March 27th AGM, SCEM approved a DPS of EGP9.5, with a dividend yield of 16%. Remarkably, when the CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation
stock exchange resumed trading on March 23rd, five of the 17 stocks which managed to close in positive territory were cement
stocks – boosted by their defensive nature and healthy dividend yield. SCEM was the market’s top performer, up 10% on the 23rd Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
alone. On March 28 we closed our SCEM trading note based on its excellent performance, and have now returned to our MBSC 75.35 14.6% Sell 1-Dec-10 8.7x 5.2x 5.5x
fundamental story. All considered, investors were able to generate a 25% return in only 3 trading sessions. MCQE 126.82 3.6% Buy 28-Dec-10 8.5x 9.9x 11.4x
SC EM 74.22 22.1% Strong Buy 19-Jan-11 4.7x 6.6x 9.2x
In April, we believe local demand for cement will see a MoM decline due to a seasonal downturn for lack of workers, and a liquidity
shortage driven by the wheat harvest season, lasting from Aril through mid-June. Regarding local prices, we believe producers will ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
* Date of last recommendation change.
steady their selling prices in April in an attempt to fuel demand for cement and to continue competing with cheaply-priced imports. † CICR projected PER 2011/12
SCEM remains our top pick amongst our coverage universe with a Strong Buy rating.
Egypt | Local Cement Prices Local Banks vs. Regional Peers | PER (F12m) vs. 3yr EPS CAGR
MBSC MCQE SCEM EGX 30
11,000
Cement Ex-factory (Excluding Transportation Costs) 50x
Cement Prices to End Consumers 45x IT 10,000
EGP/ton Cement Ex-factory (Including Transportation Costs) 40x
600 9,000
35x
30x
8,000
550 25x
PER 2011
BZU
20x GCEM 7,000
500 15x FCCL TACCO HOLN
10x HEI 6,000
5x SCEM MCQE MBSC
450
0x 5,000
400 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

4,000
Jan 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 3 Year (2009-12) EPS CAGR
Source: Ministry of Trade, Bloomberg & CICR

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Ceramics, Paints & Chemicals
Ceramics, Paints & Chemicals Sector: S hare Data As at 5th April 2011.
Ceramics, Paints & Chemicals Mkt Cap Close at 52 Weeks Av. 6M Daily
CERA 122.1 EGP 29.09 4.34% -6.19% 35.00 17.00 419.4
Ahmed Abdel Ghani Yasmin Ghanem EC AP 25.5 EGP 2.98 -13.62% -32.43% 6.19 2.50 116.3
Ahmed.Abdelghani@cich.com.eg Yasmin.Ghanem@cich.com.eg LCSW 176.1 EGP 17.48 2.70% 3.31% 19.72 12.56 87.6
MIC H 53.5 EGP 6.37 15.61% -17.49% 10.56 4.96 383.9
PACH 137.5 EGP 40.94 -13.08% -24.26% 58.00 39.68 59.7
Review | March 2011 PRCL 41.4 EGP 4.89 43.40% 2.73% 6.80 2.99 705.0
Despite surviving the recent domestic unrest with all outlets, factories, and inventory intact, Al-Ezz Ceramics and Porcelain
(GEMMA) [ECAP] will still decrease its production capacity by 40%. Meanwhile, GEMMA's local replacement market (which it
targets with a market share of c.7%) could be negatively impacted by customers' increased preference for cash should the political
situation in Egypt remain unstable. On a more positive note, given that GEMMA produces the highest-quality tiles in Egypt – of
which around 30% is exported – we believe these exports will not be affected by events in Egypt. On the company front, Lecico Sector 556.1 n/m 6.56% -12.39% n/a nla 1,771.9
Egypt [LCSW] released its 4Q10 results, reporting a 60% YoY decline in net profit to EGP11.4mn. Bottom line was pressured by EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
declining sales and an unexpected EGP11.2mn in exceptional provision-charges stemming from fire insurance claims. 4Q10 Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
revenues were down 10%YoY at EGP239.9mn, as sanitary ware (SW) revenues dropped 20%YoY on weak European demand and CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation
a restricted local supply. Fortunately, margins continued to expand as stronger pricing, cost control and favorable FX rates helped
counter a rising energy bill. In Its AGM and EGM, held March 29, LCSW’s shareholders approved a DPS of EGP1 in addition to a
1:3 bonus share issue. Both actions should help bolster share liquidity and performance over 2011.
EC AP 3.29 10.4% Sell 18-Nov -10 n/m 45.5x 17.7x
LCSW 21.40 22.4% Buy 29-Nov -10 11.1x 8.7x 6.6x
ECAP should release its FY10 financial results by the first week of April 2011. Consolidated revenues are expected to decline YoY
by 10.7% while EBITDA margin is expected to rise 4.5% YoY. Overall, ECAP is expected to report a loss of EGP0.4mn in 4Q10
(against a net loss of EGP2.7mn a year ago). Meanwhile, both LCSW and Arab Ceramics [CERA] are set to distribute cash ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
dividends. Lecico will distribute a DPS of EGP1 for a dividend yield of 6% while Arab Ceramics (Aracemco) is set to distribute a † CICR projected PER 2011/12
DPS of EGP3 for a dividend yield of 10.8%.
ECAP & PACH Revenue analysis | 2008 – 3Q10 Lecico Egypt vs. Peer Group | PER vs. EV/EBITDA (F12m)
ECAP LCSW EGX 30
9x 10,000
ECAP Revenues Additional Urban Units Supplied
Units 000' EGP (mn) 8x Saudi Ceramics 9,000
45 120 Cersanit
& Co. (KSA) (Poland)
40 7x 8,000
100 Peer Group
35
EV/EBITDA2011
Dynasty Average
30 80 6x Ceramics Porcelain & 7,000
25 (Thailand) Ceramics
60 5x (Egypt) 6,000
20
15 40 Lecico (Egypt)
4x 5,000
10
20
5 4,000
3x
- -
8x 13x 18x 23x 28x 33x 38x 43x 48x
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 3,000
PER 2011
Source: Company Financials, Bloomberg & CICR

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Consumer Goods
Consumer Goods Sector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Consumer Goods Mkt Cap

(USDmn)
Close at
5-Apr-11 MoM (%) Ytd (%) H
52 Weeks
L
Av. 6M Daily
Vol. (000' USD)
Stock
AIVC 164.6 USD 0.63 5.00% -13.70% 0.74 0.48 54.3
Ingy El Diwany EAST 881.7 EGP 105.01 -4.74% -12.46% 134.80 89.30 316.5
Ingy.Eldiwany@cich.com.eg KABO 50.0 EGP 0.88 12.82% -22.81% 1.51 0.70 310.3
OLGR 359.6 EGP 35.65 -3.18% -13.47% 42.90 23.54 503.1
ORWE 477.9 EGP 31.62 -2.80% -7.25% 37.30 25.70 308.4
Review | March 2011
Having grown more cautious in their market outlook, consumers are cutting back on non-essential spending. Consequently,
demand for white consumer goods has been heavily disrupted, with volumes sold falling almost 50% Ytd compared to last year.
Olympic Group [OLGR] has put capacity expansions scheduled to take place in 2011 on hold while Oriental Weavers Carpets
[ORWE] is currently operating at a 70% utilization rate based on weaker local sales. That said, ORWE did report strong operational
Sector 1,933.9 n/m 1.42% -13.94% n/a nla 1,492.6
growth in 2010 on 14% higher top line, while it’s BoD proposed a DPS of EGP1.5/share, (implying a dividend yield of 4.7%).
Elsewhere, the local and foreign retail operations of Al-Arafa [AIVC] picked-up gradually during March. With the UK accounting for EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
40% of total sales, and USD set as the reporting currency, we believe the GBP appreciation against the USD may offset lower local Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
sales. Given the issues facing Eastern Company, we cut our LTFV and TP 13% to EGP129/share, down from EGP148/share. CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation

Though consumer demand started to pick-up in March, we believe market conditions for OLGR will be challenging in 2011. AIVC 0.65 3.9% Hold 27-Oct-10 5.5x 5.9x 5.4x
Furthermore, given the recent unrest in Arab and African countries – OLGR’s main export markets – exports (10% of sales) are EAST 129.00 22.8% Hold 13-Mar-11 6.2x 7.5x 6.9x
expected to come under pressure. Recently, Electrolux resumed talks with OLGR and the deal is expected to be executed in OLGR 45.30 27.1% Hold 27-Oct-10 10.7x 9.6x 8.1x
2Q11. We believe that a short-term disruption in local demand for floor coverings will follow the expected cut in consumer spending ORWE 39.00 23.3% Buy 3-Apr-11 8.8x 8.4x 7.8x
in 2011. Pursuant to its BoD meeting, AIVC will soon distribute a 10% stock dividend. The new structure of AIVC, where segments
are classified according to market demand instead of operations as in the old structure, may lead to a more focused management, ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
each member with an improved understanding of different market needs. We expect growing top line for EAST in 3Q10/11, though † CICR projected PER 2011/12
this could well be muted by higher interest and lease expenses.
CICH Consumer Goods stocks | Quarterly revenue growth Consumer Goods global peer group | PER vs. EV/EBITDA (F12m)
AIVC EAST OLGR ORWE EGX 30
EGPmn Revenue (EGP 000) QoQ 8.0x 11,000
Olympic Group Phillips Van
4,000 25% 7.5x Heusen (US) Mohawk (US)
10,000
20% 7.0x Oriental
3,500 Al Arafa
Weavers
15% 6.5x 9,000
3,000
10% 6.0x Arcelik (Turkey) Perry Ellis (US)
EV/EBITDA2011
2,500 5%
5.5x Peer Group 8,000
2,000 0% Average
5.0x Casual Male
1,500 -5% Electrolux 7,000
4.5x (US)
(Sweden)
-10%
1,000 4.0x Whirlpool (US) 6,000
-15%
500 -20% 3.5x Indesit (Italy)
5,000
- -25% 3.0x
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11e 2Q11e 4x 9x 14x 19x 24x
4,000
*Aggregated revenue of consumer goods companies in CI Capital coverage universe PER 2011
Source: ECES, Bloomberg & CICR

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Contracting & Fertilisers
Contracting & Fertilisers Sector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Contracting & Fertilisers Mkt Cap Close at 52 Weeks Av. 6M Daily

ABUK 1,702.8 EGP 200.9 1.81% 2.00% 233.00 177.60 176.3
Muhammed El Ebrashi EC MI 125.5 EGP 62.27 0.00% 0.00% 62.27 62.27 n/a
Muhammed.Elebrashi@cich.com.eg EFIC 184.3 EGP 15.84 1.41% -16.23% 25.30 14.06 361.8
EN GC 25.8 EGP 8.62 13.87% -19.74% 14.16 6.25 422.7
GGCC 35.0 EGP 34.72 13.99% -20.46% 54.50 23.05 522.5
Review | March 2011 NCCW 35.4 EGP 42.2 3.99% -11.57% 57.76 29.00 163.4
OCIC 8,502.6 EGP 244.7 7.76% -14.77% 294.50 183.94 7,206.3
M&A activities are back on track amidst the euphoria of BASF’s plan to sell part of its fertiliser activity in Belgium and 50% of its SMFR 14.2 EGP 8.8 15.03% -13.89% 13.24 6.89 266.1
French operation. This deal could be a catch for BHP, the ex-bidder for Potash corp. That said, OCIC could enter into the bid UEGC 56.4 EGP 0.89 -1.11% -26.45% 1.57 0.77 864.9
process too with its 4Q10 results surpassing expectations (plus its possessing a cash position of USD1bn). Retail fertiliser prices
showed little movement for the second week of March, with N (nitrogen) and K (potash) fertiliser segments edging only marginally
Sector 10,682.1 n/m 6.31% -13.46% n/a nla 9,984.0
higher. Locally, ongoing political unrest in Egypt could affect the import of fertiliser inputs for “some time,” according to the Ministry
EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
of Chemicals and Fertilisers. Overseas, China will cut import taxes, give subsidies to the poor and encourage more food
Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
production, Finance Minister Xie Xuren said, referring to the government’s plans to deploy its vast wealth to dampen inflation.
Preview | April 2011 Target Upside PER†
Fertilizer companies are set to dive into M&As in April, with some of the most aggressive activity in the nitrogen segment. We also Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
see several nitrogen-related prospects and assets up for acquisition in Arica, while the continent’s abundant and cheap gas could EFIC 23.20 46.5% Hold 23-Nov -10 33.1x 27.2x 13.0x
OCIC 286.90 17.2% Buy 30-Mar-11 15.2x 12.5x 9.9x
lure in new investors. This, together with additional European potential presents Orascom Construction Industries’ [OCIC]
SMFR 6.37 -27.6% Sell 23-Mar-11 n/m n/m n/m
management with opportunities on two important continents. We expect the local market to undergo multiple restructuring activities,
driven by companies which possess cost-advantage gas contracts and sell a percentage of their products at a subsidized price
level. We expect these companies to fall into the nitrogen-based segment, as phosphate-based companies lie outside the subsidy ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
agreement. That said, phosphate companies might not be tempted to offer the same hefty discounts as the nitrogen companies. * Date of last recommendation change.
† CICR projected PER 2011/12
Local stocks vs. Regional peers | PBV vs. ROE (F12m) CICR covered stocks | Actual & projected net income growth
50% EFIC OCIC SMFR
ICL 150% EFIC OCIC SMFR EGX 30
45%
10,000
40% 100%
35%
50% 9,000
30% APOT
25% 0%
ROE 2011
MAIN OCIC POT 8,000

20% -50%
15% MOS ILCO
JOPH -100% 7,000
10%
EFIC YRAR -150%
5% SDF
SMFR -200% 6,000
0%
0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x 10.0x -250%
5,000
PBV (x) 2011
2009 2010 2011e 2012e
4,000
Source: Bloomberg & CICR

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Engineering & Cables
Engineering S ector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Engineering & Cables Mkt Cap Close at 52 Weeks Av. 6M Daily

ELEC 69.2 EGP 0.83 12.16% -15.31% 1.29 0.67 570.3
Muhammed El Ebrashi NASR 78.9 EGP 11.79 24.24% 4.99% 15.59 7.52 319.9
Muhammed.Elebrashi@cich.com.eg SWDY 1,126.4 EGP 39.09 -14.54% -27.45% 60.85 33.81 1,349.7
Review | March 2011

With European subsidies for green energy sources being phased out, energy is becoming an issue in the area. Spain, France, and
the UK are the main proponents of the green scheme, but concerns for sustainability are rising. These countries could urge their
MENA partners to implement profitable projects, which could in turn produce promising investment opportunities. The GCC is
preparing for a conference in late April to inaugurate c.USD110bn worth of projects and, while green energy subsidies fade in
Sector 1,274.6 n/m 7.29% -12.59% n/a nla 2,239.9
Europe, the US has become the 63rd member of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). In metals, though
copper exhibited high volatility (with China curbing metal purchases), prices ended on a downward correction due to geopolitical EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
concerns and the prospect of monetary tightening in the U.S. and Europe. Shanghai copper stayed firmly in negative territory as Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
Chinese investors fretted over the same concerns that triggered selling by their counterparts. CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation

With the escalation of Libyan political tension, we expect El Sewedy Electric’s [SWDY] management to consider postponing its SWDY 62.80 60.7% Hold 23-Nov -10 8.5x 6.7x 4.7x
Libyan investments until 2012. We also expect SWDY might lean on its significant logistical advantage and size to overcome the
dwindling local demand in North Africa by targeting European markets. In addition, we see the GoE postponing its prospective bid
for a 1000MW wind farm, much as it has frozen its interconnectivity project for electric cables with Saudi Arabia. In any case, we
see copper prices falling further following an increase in oil prices and reduced MENA economic activity. Elsewhere, green energy
investment budgets have been allocated. The US department of energy, for example, has made USD29.5bn available for the fiscal ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
year 2012, with c.USD8bn of that invested in solar, wind and advanced batteries. † CICR projected PER 2011/12
El Sewedy’s earnings vs. price of copper Engineering & Cables global peer group* | PER vs. EV/EBITDA (F12m) Share Performance | 52 Weeks (rebased to EGX 30)
EGP mn SWDY Net Inc. Copper prices Prices USD/ton 11x SWDY EGX 30
Orascom 9,000
2,500 8,600 10x Construction
9x 8,500
8,400 Thomas & Betts
2,000 8x Peer Group Corp. (US) 8,000
8,200
Average
2011 EV/EBITDA
7x 7,500
1,500 8,000
6x General Cable 7,000
7,800 Corp (US)
1,000 5x El Sewedy 6,500
7,600 Cables
4x Nexans SA 6,000
7,400
500 3x 5,500
7,200
2x
5,000
- 7,000 4x 6x 8x 10x 12x 14x 16x 18x 20x
2010a 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 4,500
2011 PER
4,000
Source: Company Financials, CICR & Bloomberg Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Food & Beverages
Food & Beverage Sector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Food & Beverages Stock

Mkt Cap
(USDmn)
Close at
5-Apr-11 MoM (%) Ytd (%) H
52 Weeks
L
Av. 6M Daily
Vol. (000' USD)
BISM 61.5 EGP 31.87 -8.94% -0.41% 36.87 28.01 3.1
Mirrete Ghozzi Basma Shebeta Mayan Elmenshawy MOSC 14.5 EGP 14.38 16.25% -2.77% 20.33 10.85 120.5
Mirrete.Ghozzi@cich.com.eg Basma.Shebeta@cich.com.eg Mayan.Elmenshawy@cich.com.eg POUL 346.6 EGP 14.22 9.55% -8.55% 17.50 9.50 335.4
SU GR 426.9 EGP 20.56 11.20% -8.62% 25.00 14.00 283.1
ZEOT 30.4 EGP 1.15 23.66% -13.53% 1.73 0.84 364.4
Review | March 2011
International sugar prices witnessed a 5.4% MoM decline in March, reaching USD717/ton, while raw prices dipped following the
Indian government’s decision to allow the export of 500k tons of sugar. Moreover, India declared that it may be able to export 1mn
additional tons of sugar by September 30th if production reaches the government’s estimate of 24.5mn tons. Locally, Delta Sugar
[SUGR] revealed growth of 2.9x in 2010 earnings to EGP298.2mn, up from EGP102.2mn a year ago. This is the product of a 37%
Sector 879.9 n/m 10.34% -6.78% n/a nla 1,106.4
increase in YoY revenues, thanks to average sugar prices increasing 31% and the removal of an EGP50/ton incentive fee
EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
previously paid to farmers. SUGR’s EBITDA margin improved to 36.3% in 2010, up from 12.7% a year ago. However, during the
AGM, the company amended its net income figure to EGP354.2mn based on the adding-back of tax provisions of EGP56mn, Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
representing tax claims from 1999 and 2004 that had been paid, a portion of the EGP77mn tax provisions reported in 2010 financial CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation
statements. SUGR approved a DPS raise to EGP1.25, implying a dividend yield of 6.3%, up from the proposed DPS of EGP1.
Moreover, SUGR approved the proposed stock dividend of 15%. In poultry, March prices witnessed a 3.8% decline, with an Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
average price of EGP12.75/Kg and a tighter price range than the previous month’s fluctuations through the unrest. SU GR 26.50 28.9% Strong Buy 5-Dec-10 7.2x 6.0x 7.8x

We believe international sugar prices will cool in April with the start of India’s sugar export shipments, amounting to 500k tons by
the third week of April. In addition, Brazilian sugar is expected to make its way into the market in May. On the local front, we expect
‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
SUGR to continue selling at EGP4,400/ton while receiving the beet crop from farmers. In reaction to strikes by the latter, SUGR * Date of last recommendation change.
recently raised beet procurement prices by a maximum of EGP70/ton, from EG280/ton to EGP350/ton. In poultry, meanwhile, April † CICR projected PER 2011/12
is expected to witness a further 4% price decline against the last week of March, with prices ranging from EGP11.5/Kg-EGP13/Kg.
Delta Sugar’s revenue vs. local price of sugar Delta Sugar’s revenue vs. international price of sugar
SUGR EGX 30
USD mn SUGR's Revenue International Sugar Price USD/ton EGP mn SUGR's Revenue Local Sugar Price EGP/ton 10,500
160 800 1,800 6,000
1,600 9,500
140 700
5,000
120 600 1,400 8,500
1,200 4,000
100 500
1,000 7,500
80 400 3,000
800 6,500
60 300
600 2,000
40 200 5,500
400
20 100 1,000
200 4,500
0 0 0 0
3,500
Source: Company Financials, CICR, Bloomberg & Sugaronline.com

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Housing & Real Estate
Housing & Real Estate Sector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Housing & Real Estate Mkt Cap Close at 52 Weeks Av. 6M Daily
EGTS 231.0 EGP 1.31 -13.82% -34.50% 3.13 1.12 2,280.4
Hany Samy
ELKA 80.6 EGP 5.12 8.94% -18.47% 7.18 3.81 875.0
Hany.Samy@cich.com.eg DAPH 32.6 EGP 15.08 13.98% -12.98% 21.30 11.80 210.0
EH DR 55.0 EGP 3.57 10.19% -22.89% 5.60 2.92 1,084.2
ELSH 60.3 EGP 3.59 9.79% -31.23% 6.73 2.66 607.1
Review | March 2011 HELI 402.1 EGP 21.52 17.34% -13.68% 26.61 16.07 534.1
Most real-estate developers released their 2010 financial results last month. Amongst our coverage universe, Talaat Moustafa MNH D 405.9 EGP 24.17 1.51% -24.02% 37.00 19.29 312.8
OCDI 415.9 EGP 68.28 -15.32% -36.58% 117.00 58.81 1,266.9
Group Holding [TMGH] saw a drop of 15% YoY in bottom line to EGP940mn, down from EGP1,106mn in 2009. 2010 top line, in PH DC 473.5 EGP 2.69 -44.76% -57.57% 6.85 2.40 1,012.0
contrast, increased 10% to EGP5,339mn (vs. EGP4,822mn in 2009). Elsewhere, the non-covered Sixth of October Development TMGH 1,511.2 EGP 4.47 -31.55% -48.20% 8.69 4.06 4,073.7
& Investment Company [OCDI] reported a net profit of EGP135mn with revenues of EGP519mn and Amer Group’s [AMER] UNIT 63.6 EGP 4.35 -0.46% -32.35% 6.87 3.40 999.4
2010 financial results showed a 10.7% YoY bottom line increase to EGP557mn, (vs. EGP503mn in 2009). Top line for the latter Sector 3,731.5 n/m -4.01% -30.23% n/a nla 13,255.7
rose 3.7% to EGP1,548mn – up from EGP1,494mn in 2009. In terms of six-month results to December 31st, Nasr City Housing & EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
Development [MNHD] saw no change in net income before minority to reach EGP43mn (vs. EGP42.9mn in Dec 2009) and Based on CI C apital 100. Includes Touristic Real Estate companies. Source: Bloomberg
Heliopolis Housing & Development [HELI] recorded earnings of EGP79.4mn – 3% higher than the EGP76.8mn posted in 2009. CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation
Preview | April 2011 Target Upside PER†

We expect the real estate sector to be negatively impacted by the still-uncertain political and economic climate. Over the last two EGTS 1.20 -8.4% Hold 22/2/2011 n/m n/m n/m
years, most real estate developers had begun to target middle income groups in a strategic bid to overcome the negative economic HELI 15.60 -27.5% Sell 6-Mar-11 15.8x 23.8x 21.8x
implications of the 2008 global financial crisis. As such, the role of salaries – which the middle classes generally use to pay the MNH D 38.90 60.9% Buy 2-Dec-10 31.7x 35.6x 30.7x
necessary installments on properties – took on a greater importance to the real estate sector. Bearing this in mind, the current PH DC 7.60 182.5% Strong Buy 28-Apr-09 5.7x 2.3x 1.5x
TMGH 10.20 128.2% Strong Buy 23-Aug-10 6.3x 5.7x 5.1x
economic uncertainty and the associated risk of unemployment would suggest this income segment will be reluctant to take on new
properties. In the near term, this means newly-signed contracts and reservations could be adversely affected. Furthermore, we ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
expect real estate companies with pending land issues to witness a further drop in their stock prices with any adverse news related † CICR projected PER 2011/12
to their land cases.
Housing & Real Estate peer group | PER vs. EV/EBITDA (F12m) Housing & Real Estate peer group | PER vs. 3 year EPS CAGR (09-12)
50x 40x HELI MNHD PHDC TMGH EGTS EGX 30

OCDI 10,000
45x ELKA 35x MNHD
40x 30x 9,000
EV / EBITDA (F12m)
35x 25x
ELSH HELI 8,000
PER (F12m)
30x 20x
25x HELI MNHD EHDR 7,000
15x
20x SDTI 6,000
SOLA 10x
15x TMGH
ALARKAN 5x
10x SRECO SRECO EMAAR 5,000
PHDC
TMGH EMAAR 0x ALARKAN SOLA
5x 4,000
SOROUH UPP
PHDC -5x
0x
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 3,000
0x 10x 20x 30x 40x 50x 60x 70x 80x
PER (F12m) 3 year EPS CAGR (2009-12) 2,000
Source: CICR & Bloomberg Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Hydrocarbons & Related Services
Hydrocarbons & Related Services S ector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Hydrocarbons & Related Services Mkt Cap

(USDmn)
Close at
5-Apr-11 MoM (%) Ytd (%) H
52 Weeks
L
Av. 6M Daily
Vol. (000' USD)
Stock
AMOC 836.6 EGP 57.86 17.91% 31.62% 59.00 38.06 402.4
Noran Ali EGAS 155.4 EGP 77.12 5.56% 1.15% 86.75 60.00 54.0
Noran.Ali@cich.com.eg MOIL 1,038.3 USD 3.38 10.46% -5.06% 4.00 2.48 949.3
SKPC 1,292.4 EGP 14.66 14.35% 1.59% 15.80 9.71 868.0
Review | March 2011

Eng. Abdullah Ghourab, Chairman of the Egyptian Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), has been named Minister of Petroleum,
replacing former EGAS chairman Mahmoud Latif. Eng. Ghourab began his term by announcing plans to establish a new price-
setting mechanism for the revision of natural gas export prices to Israel and other countries, one of the most controversial issues in
the sector. Meanwhile, Egypt has resumed its natural gas supply Israel and Jordan after several delays (the gas pipeline
Sector 3,322.8 n/m 12.07% 7.33% n/a nla 2,273.8
connecting the three countries had been damaged in an explosion and fire on Feb. 5). Company-wise, MOIL released its 2010
EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
results, reporting a 30.5% year-on-year (YoY) rise in revenue to USD322.3mn (6% below CICRe, 3% below consensus). However,
EBITDA margin contracted by 10.9pp YoY to 29.8% (CICRe 37.8%, consensus 33%) while net profit slumped 32.6% YoY to
USD48.5mn ( 30% below CICRe and consensus). The company’s unexpectedly weak profitability is due to a dispute between CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation
Valentine (MOIL’s main profit generator) and one of its clients in India over incorrect technical information, which led to operational
difficulties and higher costs. This resulted in Valentine reporting a net loss of USD244,574 in 4Q10 and a 12.2 pp rise in 2010 Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
COGS/sales ratio, to 62%. In its AGM held on March 23, 2011 MOIL approved shareholder dividends of USD18.4mn to be MOIL 4.00 18.3% Strong Buy 23-Feb-11 21.4x 8.1x 7.4x
distributed as cash dividends of USD0.06/share, implying a dividend yield of 2%, in addition to 16.6% stock dividends.

Despite disappointing results, we believe MOIL will exhibit an improved performance in 2011 given its inherent positive
‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
fundamentals. These include (1) rising international oil prices to above USD100/barrel; (2) a thriving offshore Oil & Gas industry, * Date of last recommendation change.
(demonstrated by a utilization rate which rose from 57% in Jan. to 93% in Dec. 2010, and the recent 10% rise in MOIL’s contract † CICR projected PER 2011/12
backlog to USD450mn over 2011-2012) and (3) a diversified revenue stream, 90% of which is generated abroad.
Offshore capital expenditure vs. Oil price EGX 30 vs. MSCI Emerging Markets & oil price
MOIL EGX 30
10,000
USDbn Offshore Cap-Ex. (USDbn) Oil Price USD/barrel EGX 30 MSCI EM rebased WTI Brent USD/barrel
250 120 8,000 130
9,000
7,500 120
100
200
7,000 110 8,000
80
150 100
6,500
60 90 7,000
6,000
100 80
40 5,500 6,000
70
50 5,000
20 60
5,000
4,500 50
0 -
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 4,000 40 4,000
e= CI Capital estimates Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11
Sources: Douglas Westwood, CICR & Bloomberg

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Media & IT
Media & IT Sector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Media & IT Stock

Mkt Cap
(USDmn)
Close at
5-Apr-11 MoM (%) Ytd (%) H
52 Weeks
L
Av. 6M Daily
Vol. (000' USD)
EGSA 172.0 USD 4.6 11.65% 6.98% 5.10 3.50 6.7
Ingy El Diwany MPRC 142.7 EGP 4.48 7.69% -18.55% 7.97 3.96 315.9
Ingy.Eldiwany@cich.com.eg RAYA 47.3 EGP 4.53 3.42% -24.63% 6.81 3.57 251.1
Review | March 2011

Demand for mobile handsets and other IT products started to pick-up in March, driven mainly by demand for low-average price
handsets. During the recent unrest, while only two of Raya Holding’s [RAYA] 37 retail stores were damaged the halting of internet
connectivity had a larger impact. Indeed, RAYA actually diverted its Contact Center operations (3% of revenue) through India,
where 70-80% of offshore operations were handled. Elsewhere, Egyptian Media Production City [MPRC] revealed that it will cut
Sector 362.0 n/m 7.59% -12.06% n/a nla 573.8
fees for open-air shooting locations by 25% in a bid to attract more production companies while, in its 9M10 financials, MPRC
EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
showed a 76% increase in after-tax earnings. This mainly came on the back of: (i) capital gain from the sale of land plots, (ii) rents
received from leasing two new studios and several administrative units, and (iii) returns from Ramadan TV series. In 2010, MPRC
sold around 30,000 sqm of its unutilized land bank for a total value of EGP90mn. CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation

Preview | April 2011 Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
We believe the demand for mobile handsets will gradually start to recover in the coming period, albeit at a lower rate than last year RAYA 7.61 68.1% Strong Buy 21-Nov -10 7.0x 7.2x 2.9x
given the prevailing uncertainties. RAYA is expected to launch one of its four smart buildings soon while the inauguration of BariQ
– the new plastic recycling business, is expected in late 2011. The company is due to record an EGP12mn capital gain from
transferring the title of its Smart Village building to Palm Hills Developments [PHDC]. MPRC previously announced several
expansion plans scheduled to take place in 2011, which we believe may be frozen given the current economic climate. ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
Furthermore, given its widespread criticism for wasting public funds, we believe the company’s plan to offer the remaining * Date of last recommendation change.
50,000sqm unutilized land for sale in 2011 will be put on hold. † CICR projected PER 2011/12

MoM mobile subscribers | Vodafone, Mobinil & Etisalat MoM mobile subscriber growth rate vs. RAYA’s quarterly revenue
Raya Revenue Mobile Subs RAYA EGX 30
mn subs Vodafone Mobinil Etisalat 10,000
80 Internet Users (mn) Active Fixed Lines
30% 20%
70 25% 9,000
25.19% 15%
60 20% 15.50%
15% 10% 8,000
50 9.02%
10% 6.90%
40 5%
3.36%
5% 1.36% 7,000
30 0% 0%
20 -5% -2.14% -5% 6,000
10 -10% -7.71% -10%
-15%
- -14.01% -12.95% 5,000
-20% -15.28% -15%
Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410
4,000
Source: Company Financials, Ministry of Communications

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Mills
Mills S ector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Mills Stock
Mkt Cap
(USDmn)
Close at
5-Apr-11 MoM (%) Ytd (%) H
52 Weeks
L
Av. 6M Daily
Vol. (000' USD)
AFMC 13.3 EGP 19.87 13.41% -11.33% 29.74 15.77 32.8
Ahmed Abdel Ghani Mirette Ghozzi CEFM 28.1 EGP 11.38 28.15% -5.40% 15.48 8.00 99.3
Ahmed.Abdelghani@cich.com.eg Mirette.Ghozzi@cich.com.eg EDFM 32.3 EGP 32.07 13.64% 0.34% 34.50 27.00 16.5
MILS 32.5 EGP 18.11 13.54% -2.74% 22.00 14.31 86.7
SC FM 15.4 EGP 30.49 9.24% -9.85% 43.48 25.12 25.6
Review | March 2011 UEFM 67.3 EGP 57.26 14.93% 4.80% 69.99 44.84 64.3
WCDF 45.6 EGP 36.24 15.93% 2.11% 41.98 28.20 21.4
The Government of Egypt (GoE) has announced wheat procurement prices at EGP350/arddab, 30% higher YoY. Prior to the
milling season, the GoE had assured that wheat prices would not fall below EGP300/arddab. However, these higher prices will not
affect wheat companies, since the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) is the party responsible for buying wheat Sector 234.6 n/m 15.55% -3.15% n/a nla 346.7
for subsidized bread. Elsewhere, in response to strikes by beet farmers, beet producers have recently raised beet procurement EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
prices by EGP50/ton to EGP335/ton, compared to the initial price of EGP285/ton. Indeed, the revenue per feddan of beet is Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
estimated to be c.EGP6,479 – 2% higher than that of wheat, at c.EGP6,344. However, these price increases in competing crops
have been announced during the harvesting season, which does not give farmers the opportunity to switch to the most profitable CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation
crop. Company-wise, Central Egypt Mills [CEFM] announced the sale of land plots in Beni Suef and Al-Minya governorates at a Target Upside PER†
total value of EGP13mn. The proceeds will be received in quarterly installments and used for the development of the company’s Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
mills. CEFM also failed to sell another land plot in Al-Minya governorate. These plots represent unutilized assets for CEFM, which AFMC 18.00 -9.4% Sell 14-Dec-10 11.7x 7.3x 7.1x
CEFM 11.20 -1.6% Sell 14-Dec-10 19.8x 19.8x 21.4x
had a land book value of EGP2.4mn at Dec. 31st, 2010.
EDFM 38.70 20.7% Buy 14-Dec-10 7.5x 7.4x 7.0x
MILS 13.60 -24.9% Sell 14-Dec-10 10.7x 7.4x 7.4x
Preview | April 2011 SC FM 14.30 -53.1% Sell 14-Dec-10 n/m 8.4x 8.2x
The local harvesting season will start in April and is expected to supply around 3mn tons of wheat. Meanwhile, the Ministry of UEFM 77.50 35.3% Strong Buy 14-Dec-10 4.5x 7.1x 7.0x
WCDF 39.90 10.1% Hold 14-Dec-10 5.1x 8.9x 8.7x
Social Solidarity (MSS) and the Ministry of Trade announced they are reviewing milling companies' requests to increase wheat
crushing fees by 87% to EGP140/ton, up from the rate of EGP75/ton assigned 5 years ago. The increase, to be announced in April, ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
is set to benefit to milling companies by offsetting higher fixed costs— particularly electricity and wages, which have led the † CICR projected PER 2011/12
crushing cost to exceed EGP100/ton, compared to crushing fees of EGP75/ton levied by GASC.
CICR Universe | Mills | Dividend Yields 2009-12e CICR Universe | Mills | PER 2011 vs. 3 year EPS CAGR (09-12)
AFMC CEFM EDFM MILS
2009a 2010e 2011e 2012e 25x SCFM UEFM WCDF EGX 30
14% 8,500
20x CEFM
12%
7,500
10% 15x
PER 2011
8% 6,500
10x WCDF
6%
EDFM MILS AFMC
5,500
4% 5x UEFM
2% 4,500
0x
0% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
EDFM WCDF MILS UEFM SCFM CEFM AFMC Sector EPS CAGR 2009-12 3,500
*SCFM EPS CAGR = n/m
Av.
Source: Company Financials, CICR, Bloomberg & News

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceuticals Sector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Pharmaceuticals Mkt Cap Close at 52 Weeks Av. 6M Daily

BIOC 198.7 EGP 14.17 29.64% -10.32% 19.35 9.84 156.6
Ahmed Abdel Ghani
MEDU 148.2 EGP 28.16 14.05% -1.47% 31.74 22.23 25.9
Ahmed.Abdelghani@cich.com.eg PH AR 483.5 EGP 36.29 -1.36% -2.00% 40.00 30.01 202.1
Review | March 2011

The Minister of Health, Dr. Ahraf Hatem, has moved to revoke the former minister’s decision to increase the minimum area for a
pharmacy from 25sqm to 40sqm. This initial decision was announced in conjunction with the new medicine pricing system in
September 2009, fueling protests from pharmacy-owners for its apparent economic infeasibility. The law's requirements included:
 Total pharmacy area must be no less than 40sqm and must contain a minimum of 93 medicinal products.
Sector 830.4 n/m 14.11% -4.59% n/a nla 384.6
 Pharmacy’s total warehouse area must be no less than 500sqm and able to keep products according to their specification.
EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
 Each pharmacy must be equipped with a thermometer recording temperature at fixed times, as well as a refrigerator with
thermometer for medicinal preservation. The temperature in the pharmacy itself, meanwhile, should not exceed 30 degrees C.
 Pharmacies must have a safe & closed place to preserve psychological & Narcotic drugs & a separate place for expiry products. CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation
Meanwhile, EIPICO [PHAR] released its FY10 financial results, reporting a 15% YoY higher consolidated net profit of EGP342mn Target Upside PER†
(in-line with CICRe and 4% above consensus estimates), up from EGP298mn in FY09. Thanks to higher sales volume, sales Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
revenues reported a 10%YoY increase, reaching EGP1,109mn in FY10, up from EGP1,005mn a year ago. The company’s EBITDA PH AR 43.80 20.7% Hold 9-Nov -10 8.5x 8.0x 7.4x
margin increased YoY by 136bps, to 42% in FY10 compared to 39% in FY09, largely due to an improvement in Opex/Sales ratio.

Some parties in the pharmaceutical sector expect that a complaint will be sent to the current Egyptian government to review the ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
new medicine pricing decision issued by Ex-Minister Dr. Hatem Al-Gabely on 2009, under the argument that international standards * Date of last recommendation change.
are an unfair basis upon which to price Egyptian medicines. † CICR projected PER 2011/12

Pharmaceuticals global peers* | PBV vs. ROE (F12m) EIPICO | Revenue & EBITDA 2008-12
PHAR EGX 30
26% Revenue (EGP mn) 10,000
Revenue EBITDA Margin EBITDA Margin
24% AXPH 1,600 42%

NIPH ADAYA 41.3% 41.4% 9,000
GLAXOSMI 1,400 42%
22% MEDU
40.9% 41.7%
MEDI 1,200 41% 8,000
PHAR MOUWASAT
20%
1,000 41%
2010 ROE
LHG 7,000
18% YIACO ORIDN 800 40%
39.4%
DADI
16% PRO 600 40%
6,000
SHMR 400 39%
14% ATC
200 39% 5,000
12%
- 38%
0.0x 1.0x 2.0x 3.0x 4.0x 5.0x 6.0x 4,000
2008 2009 2010e 2011e 2012e
2010 PBV (x) Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
Source: Company Financials, CICR & Bloomberg

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Steel
Steel Sector: S hare Data As at 5th April 2011.
Steel Mkt Cap Close at 52 Weeks Av. 6M Daily

ESRS 977.1 EGP 10.71 -32.77% -45.36% 26.00 9.50 2,494.5
Hany Samy Basma Shebeta IRAX 1,475.6 EGP 642.91 -2.38% -19.39% 1130.01 592.74 79.6
Hany.Samy@cich.com.eg Basma.Shebeta@cich.com.eg IRON 621.7 EGP 7.58 9.22% -19.53% 15.23 5.63 235.6
Review | March 2011

El Ezz Steel [ESRS] maintained its steel rebars ex-factory prices for March deliveries at EGP4,350/ton. At present, the company is
facing a set of allegations related to (1) acquisition of Alexandria National Iron & Steel Company (ANSDK) – aka Al-Ezz
Dekheila for Steel-Alexandria (EZDK); (2) unfair monopolization of the steel rebars market and violation of the Egyptian
competition law; (3) the acquisition of a license for producing 1.8mtpa of Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) in the El Ezz Flat Steel (EFS)
facility without paying licensing fees amounting to EGP350mn; (4) failure to repay certain bank loans and (5) corruption and rigging Sector 3,074.4 n/m -8.64% -28.09% n/a nla 2,809.7
of parliamentary elections by the ESRS Chairman. Although still under investigation, these allegations are likely to negatively EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
impact ESRS’ stock price. We have thus revised our assumptions, leading to a downgrade in ESRS’s LTFV by 43%, down from Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
EGP32.5/share to EGP18.4/share. Furthermore, we have reduced our Target Price by 54% from EGP26/share to EGP12/share, CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation
with a downside potential of 25% from current market price. Overall, we have downgraded our recommendation for ESRS from
Strong Buy to Sell with a High Risk rating. Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
ESRS 12.00 12.0% Sell 24-Mar-11 17.8x 42.7x 21.2x
Preview | April 2011 IRAX 780.00 21.3% Hold 15-Mar-11 12.2x 16.9x 12.7x
Construction and real-estate activities will remain weak in the coming months with individuals reluctant to buy new real estate units
given a potential liquidity problem that could hinder the payment of related installments. Consequently, local real-estate developers
will not start new projects, leading to lower demand for steel rebars. we also believe demand for White Consumer Goods (WCG)
and commercial vehicles is unlikely to rebound in the near future, with a projected lower local demand for flat steel. ESRS’ sales ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
volumes, utilization rates and selling prices in 2011 are likely to be negatively impacted while we expect the above allegations to † CICR projected PER 2011/12
hinder ESRS’s share performance. The company set its steel rebars ex-factory prices for April deliveries at EGP4,400/ton.
IRAX & ESRS vs. global peers | PER vs. EV/EBITDA (F12m) Pig iron and scrap steel prices | 52 weeks ESRS IRAX EGX 30
9,000
9.0x El Ezz Steel CIS Export Pig Iron (Black Sea)
Aldekhela Steel USD per tonne
8.5x Steel Scrap (Shredded US fob East Coast)
(Egypt) 550 8,000
8.0x
Olympic Steel
7.5x Inc. 500
Al Jazeera Steel 7,000
7.0x
EV/EBITDA (F12m)
Ezz Steel 450

6.5x Schnitzer Steel
Industries Inc (Egypt) 6,000
400
6.0x
5.5x 350 5,000
Steel Dynamics
5.0x Inc. 300
4.5x 4,000
250
4.0x
0x 10x 20x 30x 40x 50x 200 3,000
PER (F12m) Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
Source: CICR & Bloomberg

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Telecom Services
Telecom Services Sector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Telecom Services Mkt Cap

(USDmn)
Close at
5-Apr-11 MoM (%) Ytd (%) H
52 Weeks
L
Av. 6M Daily
Vol. (000' USD)
Stock
EMOB 2,599.5 EGP 154.8 16.21% -6.14% 234.00 116.50 1,059.1
Amr Hussein Elalfy Mohamed Hamdy Yehia El Sherbiny ETEL 4,979.3 EGP 17.37 8.36% -3.93% 20.43 12.99 1,954.9
Amr.Elafy@cich.com.eg Mohamed.Hamdy@cich.com.eg Yehia.Elsherbiny@cich.com.eg ORTE 3,805.2 USD 3.601 -4.76% -20.30% 7.89 4.05 20,602.4
Review | March 2011

At Vimpelcom’s March 17 shareholders meeting, 53.3% of participating shares voted in favor of the USD6bn-plus deal to acquire
Wind Telecom, including controlling stakes in Italy's Wind and Egypt's Orascom Telecom Holding [ORTE]. Having failed to
block the deal, Telenor is pursuing a separate arbitration case to secure its rights to maintain its full VimpelCom stake. Meanwhile,
ORTE minorities are still waiting for a final valuation for Algerian unit Djezzy. In earnings, the Egyptian Company for Mobile
Services [EMOB] disappointed shareholders by postponing dividends after approving 2010 financials. We have raised EMOB’s Sector 11,384.0 n/m 6.60% -10.12% n/a nla 23,616.5
cost of equity to 16% due to Egypt’s higher country risk, and cut our LTFV and TP for the company by 16% apiece. We have EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
also upgraded EMOB from Sell to Underweight. Telecom Egypt's [ETEL] 2010 net earnings came 6% above CICRe and Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
consensus. ETEL has continued to bolster its net cash position, now standing at EGP4.1bn. The company’s management is
proposing a DPS of EGP1.3, in line with CICRe and implying an 8% yield; accordingly, we reiterate our Buy recommendation.
Preview | April 2011 Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
ORTE has provided details on Wind Telecom's merger with VimpelCom and the subsequent corporate structure, asking its EMOB 143.00 -7.6% Underweight 21-Mar-11 11.3x 12.9x 12.0x
shareholders to approve a USD2.73bn refinancing plan related to the merger, an authorized capital increase to EGP14bn, and the ETEL 21.00 20.9% Buy 28-Nov -10 9.0x 9.2x 9.4x
ORTE 5.50 43.6% Strong Buy 2-Nov -10 10.5x 8.9x 7.1x
spin-off of its assets into a new company, Orascom Telecom Media & Technology Holding (OTMT), to be owned by Weather II.
OTH minority shareholders will continue to hold the same ownership percentage in both old and new companies based on a pro-
rata basis. An optional share buyback by OTMT will be offered to minorities based on market value, with compensation paid in ORTE is GDR, not share price. ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
cash, EMOB stocks, or a combination of both. However, two pending issues remain: (1) Telenor's potential international arbitration * Date of last recommendation change.
over the merger and (2) OTH's investment in Algeria and Canada with the former representing a major overhang on OTH's stock † CICR projected PER 2011/12
performance. Until we revise our model, our target price is EGP6.3/share, and we reiterate our Strong Buy on ORTE. Share Performance | 52 Weeks (rebased to EGX 30)
Regional peer group | PER vs. EV/EBITDA (F12m) Regional peer group | PER (F12m) vs. 3 year EPS CAGR EMOB ETEL ORTE EGX 30
8.0x
9,000
18.0x
IAM JTEL
7.0x JTEL
16.0x 8,000
6.0x CEL
14.0x EMOB IAM
PTNR 7,000
5.0x EMOB
EV/EBITDA (F12m)
BATELCO ETISALAT 12.0x

CEL
4.0x
PER 2010
ORTE ETISALAT 6,000

10.0x PTNR
ORTE
3.0x
8.0x ETEL 5,000
2.0x
ETEL BATELCO
6.0x
1.0x 4,000
0.0x 4.0x
6.0x 8.0x 10.0x 12.0x 14.0x 16.0x 18.0x -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 3,000
PER (F12m) 3 Year (2007-10) EPS CAGR Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
Source: CICR & Bloomberg

April 7, 2011 | Egypt | Transport & Logistics
Transport & Logistics Sector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.
Transport & Logistics Mkt Cap Close at 52 Weeks Av. 6M Daily

ALC N 352.5 EGP 85.34 2.68% -14.78% 124.50 65.59 227.4
Sherif Helmy CSAG 200.8 EGP 5.98 17.72% -21.21% 10.73 4.15 207.5
Sherif.Helmy@cich.com.eg ETRS 26.4 EGP 10.07 14.04% -28.73% 24.69 7.60 477.9
UASG 29.9 EGP 0.89 4.71% -25.83% 2.22 0.70 202.4
Review | March 2011

In December, three out of the four main lines of business (LoB) of the Maritime Transport & Logistics sector experienced
considerable month-on-month (MoM) gains, rebounding after a significant drop caused by poor winter weather in Europe. That
said, December’s only losses lay in Passenger Traffic, while Cargo Handling (+7%), Containers Handling (+5%) and Vessels Traffic
(+2%) added 10.9mn tons, 0.540mn Twenty-foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) and 1,573 trips, respectively. As usual, Port Said sea
terminals (East & West) topped the list in terms of total containers handled, with a c.55% share while Mediterranean seaports took Sector 609.7 n/m 9.79% -22.64% n/a nla 1,115.2
the lion’s share (87%) of total cargo handled, while Safaga and Alexandria contributed 53% to the total passengers. The current EGX 30 36,613.7 5,470.3 -3.12% -23.41% 7,693.5 4,743.6 84,798.7
political and economic situation is likely to hurt the sector's operations, as its performance is strongly correlated to the country's Based on CI C apital 100. Source: Bloomberg
economy and trade, with 90% of foreign trade transferred through the sea terminals. When the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) resumed CI Capital Coverage Universe: Valuation & Recommendation
trading, Egytrans [ETRS] weakened 5% compared to the sector’s 8% average. This, together with the quarterly results released
for the covered companies, has led us to revise our estimates and downgrade our recommendations for Alexandria Containers Stock Price Potential Recommendation Date* 2010 2011 2012
Handling [ALCN], Canal Shipping Agencies [CSAG], and United Arab Stevedoring [UASG] to Sell. ETRS is maintained as
ALC N 76.20 -10.7% Sell 2-Mar-11 9.6x 10.4x 9.8x
Buy until the release of the company’s 2010 results. CSAG 4.19 -29.9% Sell 10-Mar-11 23.3x 32.7x 29.9x
ETRS 18.10 79.7% Buy 24-Jan-11 10.2x 8.6x 3.6x
Preview | April 2011 UASG 0.68 -23.6% Sell 7-Mar-11 n/m n/m n/m
We expect macro data for January to show decent growth for all LoB – a direct recovery from the severe weather in Europe and
Egypt which led to the full closure of most Egyptian seaports and terminals. Elsewhere, we believe the sector will resume normal ‡ TP in same currency as stock price (see abov e). Source: CICR Database
activities and rebound strongly after two months of weakness and stoppage. In the short term, this means trade flows gradually † CICR projected PER 2011/12
returning to normality; with a brighter picture for the medium and long terms, as demonstrations wind down.
Maritime Transport Industry | Key indicators (MoM) Regional peer group | PER (F12m) vs. 3 year EPS CAGR
ALCN CSAG ETRS UASG EGX 30
Cargo Handled Containers Handled 14,000
50x
Vessel Traffic Passenger Traffic
100% 45x Kromi Logistik AG
(GE)
12,000
40x
80%
35x CSAG (EG)
60% 10,000
30x
Eagle Bulk
40% Shipping (US)
PER 2010
25x Log-in Logistica 8,000

Intermodal (BZ)
20% 20x Tianjin Port Co.
(CH) ICT Services (PH)
0% 15x Pacific Basin 6,000
Shipping (HK)
-20% 10x
ALCN (EG) ETRS (EG)
5x 4,000
-40%
0x
-60% 2,000
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%
Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 3 Year (2007-10) EPS CAGR Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
Sources: Egyptian Maritime Data Bank (EMDB), CICR & Bloomberg

CICR Macro Figures & Coverage Universe

Real Sector 05/06a 06/07a 07/08a 08/09a 09/10a 10/11e 11/12e
GDP, Current (EGP bn) 632.8 744.8 892.6 1,038.6 1,206.6 1,316.4 1,497.9
GDP, Current (USD bn) 108.9 130.4 162.2 187.6 218.4 222.3 245.6
Real GDP Grow th (%) 6.8% 7.1% 7.2% 4.7% 5.1% 4.0% 4.5%
GDP/Capita, Current (USD) 1,497.1 1,722.7 2,071.6 2,314.5 2,596.1 2,863.1 3,255.4
Population 72,750 75,550 78,300 81,300 84,000 85,680 87,394
Av g. Population (>15<45 y rs old) 35,531 36,253 37,030 40,487 41,832 42,669 43,522
External Sector
Balance of Goods & Serv ices (USD bn) (3.8) (4.8) (8.4) (12.7) (14.8) (15.1) (16.3)
Tourism Rev enues (USD bn) 7.2 8.2 10.8 10.5 11.6 9.8 11.0
Suez Canal Rev enues (USD bn) 3.6 4.2 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.6 5.3
Transfers (USD bn) 5.5 7.1 9.3 8.6 10.5 11.1 12.8
Current Account (USD bn) 1.8 2.3 0.9 (4.4) (4.3) (4.0) (3.5)
Current Account % GDP 1.6% 1.7% 0.5% -2.4% -2.0% -1.8% -1.4%
FDI (USD bn) 6.1 11.1 13.2 8.1 6.8 4.3 4.7
FDI % GDP 5.6% 8.5% 8.2% 4.3% 3.1% 1.9% 1.9%
EGP/USD Ex change Rate (Period Av g) 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.1
Net International Reserv es (USD bn) 22.9 28.6 34.6 31.3 35.2 - -
Monetary Sector
Inflation (CPI, %) 4.2% 10.9% 11.7% 16.5% 11.7% 11.2% 11.9%
Core Inflation (Core CPI, %) 3.0% 9.4% 11.2% 16.4% 6.7% 8.6% 8.9%
Deposits Rate (End of period, %) 8.00% 8.75% 10.50% 9.00% 8.25% 8.50% 8.50%
Lending Rate (End of period, %) 10.00% 10.75% 12.50% 10.50% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75%
M2 Grow th (%) 13.5% 18.3% 15.7% 8.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Fiscal Sector
Ex penditure % GDP 32.8% 29.8% 31.6% 33.1% 29.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Rev enues % GDP 36.4% 19.1% 22.9% 24.1% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Fiscal Deficit % GDP 8.0% 7.3% 6.9% 6.9% 8.1% 8.8% 8.4%
Source: CICR Database

Last Target PER PBV 10 EV/EBITDA Net Debt/EBITDA Div. Yield

CI Capital Coverage Universe
Sector/Company Ticker Recommendation Risk Curr. Price Price +/- % 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
Automotive
GB Auto AUTO Hold Medium EGP 28.43 58.10 104.4% 13.9x 8.2x 3.5x 1.8x 1.5x 1.2x 6.0x 6.7x 3.6x 0.1x 3.0x 1.3x 3.6% 3.3% 7.6%
Banking
Credit Agricole - Egy pt CIEB Underw eight Medium EGP 12.23 13.54 10.7% 7.9x 8.5x 7.9x 1.9x 1.9x 1.8x n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 9.8% 8.8% 9.4%
CIB COMI Not Rated Medium EGP 32.40 n/a n/a 9.5x 10.1x 9.2x 2.5x 2.2x 1.9x n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 3.1% 2.9% 3.1%
Housing & Dev elopment Bank HDBK Buy Medium EGP 19.95 30.15 51.1% 7.1x 4.7x 3.7x 0.9x 0.8x 0.7x n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 7.0% 10.6% 13.4%
NSGB NSGB Underw eight Medium EGP 39.07 43.29 10.8% 10.7x 9.7x 8.6x 2.4x 2.1x 1.8x n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 3.2% 3.2% 3.6%
Cement
Misr Beni Suef Cement MBSC Sell Medium EGP 65.75 75.35 14.6% 8.7x 5.2x 5.5x 1.6x 1.3x 1.3x 4.9x 2.5x 2.4x -0.7x -1.1x -1.4x 5.4% 11.1% 12.1%
Misr Cement (Qena) MCQE Buy Medium EGP 122.43 126.82 3.6% 8.5x 9.9x 11.4x 3.3x 5.4x 5.4x 6.1x 7.4x 8.5x -1.7x -2.0x -2.2x 13.1% 8.5% 7.4%
Sinai Cement SCEM Strong Buy Medium EGP 60.78 74.22 22.1% 4.7x 6.6x 9.2x 1.7x 1.8x 1.8x 4.5x 4.9x 5.3x -0.9x -1.1x -1.3x 15.6% 10.7% 8.7%
Ceramics, Chemicals & Paints

Al-Ezz Ceramics ECAP Sell High EGP 2.98 3.29 10.4% n/a 45.5x 17.7x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 6.8x 6.4x 5.8x 4.4x 4.2x 3.8x n/a n/a n/a
Lecico Egy pt LCSW Buy Medium EGP 17.48 21.40 22.4% 11.1x 8.7x 6.6x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x 5.9x 4.9x 4.0x 2.1x 1.4x 1.0x 5.7% 6.2% 8.3%
Consumer Goods
Al-Arafa For Inv estment AIVC Hold Medium USD 0.63 0.65 3.9% 5.5x 5.9x 5.4x 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x 10.9x 7.3x 5.9x 4.6x 2.6x 1.8x n/a 4.5% 5.9%
Eastern Company EAST Hold Medium EGP 105.01 129.00 22.8% 6.2x 7.5x 6.9x 1.4x 1.3x 1.1x 6.4x 6.2x 4.9x 1.1x 1.0x 0.6x 5.2% 4.6% 5.8%
Oly mpic Group OLGR Hold Medium EGP 35.65 45.30 27.1% 10.7x 9.6x 8.1x 2.1x 1.9x 1.7x 8.6x 7.6x 6.0x 2.0x 1.9x 1.4x 4.5% 5.0% 5.9%
Oriental Weav ers (OW) ORWE Buy Medium EGP 31.62 39.00 23.3% 8.8x 8.4x 7.8x 1.0x 1.0x 0.9x 7.5x 7.1x 6.4x 2.7x 2.1x 1.8x 4.7% 7.6% 8.1%
Contracting & Fertilisers

OCI OCIC Buy Medium EGP 244.7 286.90 17.2% 15.2x 12.5x 9.9x 2.9x 2.6x 2.6x 10.1x 10.2x 7.7x 1.8x 3.5x 2.7x 4.6% 4.0% 5.0%
EFIC EFIC Hold Medium EGP 15.84 23.20 46.5% 33.1x 27.2x 13.0x 1.3x 1.2x 1.1x 14.5x 11.9x 9.4x 5.9x 5.0x 4.2x 0.2% 0.3% 0.5%
Semad Misr SMFR Sell Medium EGP 8.80 6.37 -27.6% n/a n/m n/m 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x n/m 50.6x 40.0x NM 2.6x 2.2x n/a n/a 0.1%
Engineering
El-Sew edy Cables SWDY Hold Medium EGP 39.09 62.80 60.7% 8.5x 6.7x 4.7x 1.3x 1.1x 1.0x 6.6x 5.7x 4.1x 1.7x 1.8x 1.3x 2.9% 3.8% 5.3%
Food & Beverage

Delta Sugar SUGR Strong Buy Medium EGP 20.56 26.50 28.9% 7.2x 6.0x 7.8x 2.7x 2.5x 2.3x 4.3x 3.8x 4.9x -0.8x -1.0x -1.2x 6.1% 12.6% 9.7%
Housing & Touristic Real Estate

Egy ptian for Tourism Resorts EGTS Hold High EGP 1.31 1.20 -8.4% n/a n/a n/m 1.3x 1.3x 1.3x n/m n/m 205.4x NM NM -39.0x n/a n/a n/a
Heliopolis Hous. & Dev . HELI Sell High EGP 21.52 15.60 -27.5% 15.8x 23.8x 21.8x 6.8x 8.9x 7.9x 12.9x 24.9x 21.2x 0.3x 2.2x 2.4x 4.1% 2.7% 3.0%
Nasr City H&D MNHD Buy High EGP 24.17 38.90 60.9% 31.7x 35.6x 30.7x 9.6x 8.7x 7.8x 21.5x 24.7x 24.1x -0.6x -0.8x -1.1x 1.9% 2.2% 2.7%
Palm Hills Dev . PHDC Strong Buy Medium EGP 2.69 7.60 182.5% 5.7x 2.3x 1.5x 0.6x 0.6x 0.4x 4.7x 2.2x 1.3x 0.6x 0.6x 0.2x n/a n/a n/a
TMG Holding TMGH Strong Buy Medium EGP 4.47 10.20 128.2% 6.3x 5.7x 5.1x 0.3x 0.3x 0.2x 9.1x 8.8x 8.5x 3.6x 4.6x 5.1x n/a n/a n/a

Last Target PER PBV 10 EV/EBITDA Net Debt/EBITDA Div. Yield

Sector/Company T icker Recommendation Risk Curr. Price Price +/- % 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012
Hydrocarbons & Related Services
Maridiv e & Oil Serv ices MOIL Strong Buy Medium USD 3.38 4.00 18.3% 21.4x 8.1x 7.4x 3.8x 3.4x 3.1x 13.7x 5.9x 5.2x 2.9x 1.0x 0.6x 1.8% 8.7% 11.3%
Media & IT
Ray a Holding RAYA Strong Buy Medium EGP 4.53 7.61 68.1% 7.0x 7.2x 2.9x 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 6.0x 6.7x 3.5x 3.5x 4.5x 2.4x 5.0% 6.2% 11.9%
Mills
Alex andria Mills AFMC Sell Medium EGP 19.87 18.00 -9.4% 11.7x 7.3x 7.1x 1.5x 1.3x 1.2x 4.4x 2.3x 1.6x -2.1x -2.1x -2.7x 3.5% 5.3% 5.4%
Central Egy pt Mills CEFM Sell Low EGP 11.38 11.20 -1.6% 19.8x 19.8x 21.4x 0.9x 0.9x 0.9x 4.8x 6.2x 5.8x -0.9x 0.8x 0.5x n/a 3.5% 3.3%
East Delta Mills EDFM Buy Low EGP 32.07 38.70 20.7% 7.5x 7.4x 7.0x 1.3x 1.2x 1.2x 9.2x 5.5x 4.9x -1.0x -0.3x -0.6x 10.4% 10.6% 11.3%
North Cairo Mills MILS Sell Low EGP 18.11 13.60 -24.9% 10.7x 7.4x 7.4x 1.3x 1.3x 1.2x 4.2x 4.1x 3.9x -6.4x -5.2x -5.1x 8.3% 11.9% 12.0%
South Cairo Mills SCFM Sell Medium EGP 30.49 14.30 -53.1% n/a 8.4x 8.2x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x n/m 5.9x 4.5x NM -7.6x -8.6x 4.9% 4.8% 4.9%
Upper Egy pt Mills UEFM Strong Buy Low EGP 57.26 77.50 35.3% 4.5x 7.1x 7.0x 1.5x 1.4x 1.2x 2.0x 2.7x 2.1x -1.9x -2.8x -3.2x 10.5% 6.6% 6.7%
Middle & West Delta Mills WCDF Hold Low EGP 36.24 39.90 10.1% 5.1x 8.9x 8.7x 1.7x 1.6x 1.5x 3.2x 4.6x 4.1x -0.4x -0.2x -0.6x 10.8% 7.8% 7.9%
Pharmaceuticals
EIPICO PHAR Hold Low EGP 36.29 43.80 20.7% 8.5x 8.0x 7.4x 1.8x 1.7x 1.5x 5.0x 4.5x 3.9x -1.1x -1.2x -1.3x 6.9% 7.2% 8.8%
Steel
Ezz Steel ESRS Sell Medium EGP 10.71 12.00 12.0% 17.8x 42.7x 21.2x 1.2x 1.2x 1.1x 5.9x 6.6x 5.5x 3.3x 3.4x 2.7x 1.7% 0.7% 1.4%
Ezz Al-Dekheila IRAX Hold High EGP 642.91 780.00 21.3% 12.2x 16.9x 12.7x 3.0x 2.8x 2.5x 7.7x 8.4x 7.2x 3.2x 3.3x 2.8x 4.9% 3.5% 4.7%
Telecom Services
Mobinil EMOB Underw eight Medium EGP 154.8 143.00 -7.6% 11.3x 12.9x 12.0x 3.7x 3.3x 2.9x 5.1x 4.9x 4.6x 1.5x 1.3x 1.1x 5.9% 4.3% 4.6%
Telecom Egy pt ETEL Buy Medium EGP 17.37 21.00 20.9% 9.0x 9.2x 9.4x 1.1x 1.1x 1.1x 1.8x 1.6x 1.1x -0.8x -1.3x -1.7x 7.5% 7.6% 7.4%
Orascom Telecom ORTE Strong Buy High USD 3.804 5.50 44.6% 10.5x 8.9x 7.1x 2.1x 1.7x 1.4x 4.8x 4.2x 3.6x 2.5x 2.1x 1.6x n/a n/a n/a
Transport & Logistics

Alex andria Containers Handling ALCN Sell High EGP 85.34 76.20 -10.7% 9.6x 10.4x 9.8x 3.5x 2.9x 2.5x 7.0x 7.1x 6.3x -1.1x -1.6x -1.9x n/a 4.8% 5.1%
Canal Shipping Agencies CSAG Sell High EGP 5.98 4.19 -29.9% 23.3x 32.7x 29.9x 3.2x 3.1x 3.1x n/m n/m n/m NM NM NM 3.5% 2.6% 2.8%
Egy trans ETRS Buy High EGP 10.07 18.10 79.7% 10.2x 8.6x 3.6x 0.9x 0.5x 0.5x 53.0x 13.7x 5.2x -3.6x 6.4x 2.5x n/a n/a n/a
United Arab Stev edoring UASG Sell High EGP 0.89 0.68 -23.6% n/a n/a n/a 4.9x 6.1x 8.1x n/m n/m n/m NM NM NM n/a n/a n/a
Distribution of Recommendations Number %

Strong Buy 8 18.6%
Buy 9 20.9%
Hold 10 23.3%
Underw eight 3 7.0%
Sell 12 27.9%
Not Rated 1 2.3% *COMI is not rated due to its 100% ow nership of CICH.
Total 43 100% Source: CI Capital Database.

November 24, 2010 | Egypt | Investor’s Guide
CICR Publications | Jan-Mar 2011*

Date Title/Company/Sector Type Pages
13-Jan-11 Investors Guide Strategy Monthly 35

13-Jan-11 Your Week In Egypt Egypt - Weekly 27
16-Jan-11 Mena Telecoms Weekly | No. 88 Mena Ringtone 12
16-Jan-11 Samad Misr Company Note 3
19-Jan-11 Sinai Cement Company Note 6
20-Jan-11 US and Uncle Sam Strategy Note 17
24-Jan-11 Mena Telecoms Weekly | No. 89 Mena Ringtone 13
26-Jan-11 Egytrans Company Note 2
27-Jan-11 Macro Watch | Issue No. 6 Economy 8
06-Feb-11 Earnings Preview – 4Q10 Earnings Preview 38
13-Feb-11 GB Auto Company Note 7
13-Feb-11 Your Week In Egypt Egypt - Weekly 28
14-Feb-11 Egyptian Co. for Mobile Services Newsflash 3
16-Feb-11 Egypt - New Owners Strategy Note 35
20-Feb-11 Mena Telecoms Weekly | No. 90 Mena Ringtone 18
21-Feb-11 Egypt - Mills Sector Sector Note 2
22-Feb-11 Egyptian Resorts Co. Company Note 9
23-Feb-11 Maridive & Oil Services Company Note 9
24-Feb-11 Commercial International Bank Newsflash 3
27-Feb-11 Kuwait Food Co. (Americana) Newsflash 2
27-Feb-11 Mena Telecoms Weekly | No. 91 Mena Ringtone 12
28-Feb-11 Macro Watch | Issue No. 7 Economy 8
02-Mar-11 National Societe Generale Bank Company Note 8
02-Mar-11 Alexandria Containers Handling Company Note 9
03-Mar-11 Dana Gas Newsflash 2
03-Mar-11 Your Week In Egypt Egypt - Weekly 27
06-Mar-11 Mena Telecoms Weekly | No. 92 Mena Ringtone 12
06-Mar-11 du Newsflash 2
06-Mar-11 Heliopolis Housing Company Note 8
07-Mar-11 United Arab Stevedoring Company Note 9
07-Mar-11 GB Auto Newsflash 2
09-Mar-11 Orascom Construction Industries Newsflash 3
09-Mar-11 Sinai Cement Newsflash 2
09-Mar-11 Maridive & Oil Services Newsflash 2
10-Mar-11 Telecom Egypt Newsflash 3
10-Mar-11 Canal Shipping Agencies Company Note 9
10-Mar-11 Economy Economy Newsflash 1
10-Mar-11 Economy Economy Note 4
10-Mar-11 Lecico Egy pt Newsflash 2
13-Mar-11 Eastern Company Company Note 8
15-Mar-11 Misr Cement (Qena) Newsflash 2
15-Mar-11 Ezz Al-Dekheila Steel - Alexandria (IRAX) Company Note 7
16-Mar-11 Credit Agricole Company Note 8
17-Mar-11 Is Egypt undervalued? Strategy Note 61

November 24, 2010 | Egypt | Investor’s Guide
Date Title/Company/Sector Type Pages

21-Mar-11 Egyptian Co. for Mobile Services Company Note 6
23-Mar-11 Misr Beni Suef Cement Newsflash 2
23-Mar-11 Sinai Cement Trading Note 2
23-Mar-11 Samad Misr Company Note 9
24-Mar-11 Ezz Steel Company Note 10
24-Mar-11 Macro Watch | Issue No. 7 Economy 9
27-Mar-11 EGX Performance Strategy Note 2
28-Mar-11 Sinai Cement Trading Note 1
29-Mar-11 Commercial International Bank Company Note 5
29-Mar-11 Orascom Telecom Holding Newsflash 6
30-Mar-11 Orascom Construction Industries Company Note 10
03-Apr-11 Mena Telecoms Weekly | No. 96 Mena Ringtone 12
03-Apr-11 Oriental Weavers Carpets Company Note 13
Source: CI Capital Research

*Since last edition of CICR’s Investor’s Guide

Disclaimer
The information used to produce this market commentary is based on sources that CI Capital Research (CICR) believes to be reliable and accurate. This information has not been independently verified and may be
condensed or incomplete. CICR does not make any guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability to the accuracy and completeness of such information. Expression of opinion contained
herein is based on certain assumptions and with the use of specific financial techniques that reflect the personal opinion of the authors of the commentary and is subject to change without notice. It is acknowledged that
different assumptions can always be made and that there is a wide choice of techniques that can be adopted each of which can lead to a different conclusion. Therefore, all that is stated herein is of an indicative and
informative nature as forward-looking statements, projections, and fair values quoted may not be realized. Accordingly, CICR does not take any responsibility for decisions made on the basis on the content of this
commentary. This commentary is made for the sole use of CICR’s customers and no part or excerpt of its content may be redistributed, reproduced or conveyed in any form, written or oral, to any third party without the
prior written consent of CICR. This commentary does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell securities.
Rating system
In February 2009, CI Capital Research (CICR) launched a new rating system to give analysts more freedom to be market responsive. This is to make one element of our research more dynamic, namely the advertising
of target prices and recommendations. What we did not change is our assessment of the Long Term Fair Value (LTFV), nor have we stopped our detailed industry and company research. What we did is changing the
target price to trade in the balance of where a share should trade and where we think it will trade.
LTFV: As before we continue to estimate a fundamental valuation, largely DCF and/or NAV based.
Target Price: The target price, which is not necessarily the LTFV, is where the analyst, given all (qualitative as well as financial) information available, thinks the share price can get to within the next 3-12 months. This
can be changed at any time on changing facts, and perceptions.
Recommendations: Our new rating system falls out from the total return relating to the share price performance to the target price, and including any distributions as may not be included in the target price calculation.
This is shown in the table below, and to be BUY must return over 19%, an arbitrary hurdle rate we think reasonable given prevailing interest rates and risks. (Please see table below.)
Rating Potential Upside/downside
Strong Buy >30%

Buy >20% <30%
Hold >10% <20%
Underweight >0% <10%
Sell <0%

Egypt - Investors Guide

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Originalbeschreibung:

Originaltitel

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

Egypt - Investors Guide

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

CICR | EGYPT | STRATEGY

EGYPT – INVESTORS GUIDE Recent recommendation changes

CICR Macro Figures & Coverage Universe 32

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy

Egypt/MENA Price MoM YTD Global Price MoM YTD

Round-Up | January-March 2011 EGX 30

T-Bills Issued Yield MoM Commodities Price MoM YTD

Ytd % MoM % -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 3

Stock Calls | April 2011 | In Favour

Ticker — MOIL TP (USD) — 4 • Strengthening oil prices.

Orascom Telecom Analyst/s: Amr Hussein Elalfy, CFA/Yehia El Sherbiny

Olympic Group Analyst/s: Ingy El-Diwany

OCI Analyst/s: Muhammad El Ebrashi

Delta Sugar Analyst/s: Mirette Mohamed Ghozzi

*TP = Target Price Source: CICR, Bloomberg.

CI Capital | Egypt | Equity Research Page 4

Stock Calls | April 2011 | Out of Favour

Ezz Steel Analyst/s: Hany Mohamed Samy

Egyptian for Tourism Resorts Analyst/s: Hany Mohamed Samy

Ticker — EGTS TP (EGP) — 1.2 • An expectation of nil land sales in 2011

*TP = Target Price Source: CICR, Bloomberg.

CI Capital | Egypt | Equity Research Page 5

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 6

II. Top Down | Valuation

Price to Book (PBV)

Return on Equity (ROE)

Net Income Growth

Price Earnings Ratio (PER)

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 7

III. Top Down | Technical

EGX 30 Index EGX 70 Index

EGX 100 Index MSCI EM Index

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 8

1M Daily Av. 6M Av. Tnvr

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 9

II. Bottom Up | Key Sectors (Last 6 months)

6,000 5,000 5,500

Housing & Real Estate Steel Telecom Services

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 10

III. Bottom Up | Valuation

CICR Coverage Universe | Beta (β)

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 11

MCQE ALCN COMI NSGB

3 -year CAGR EPS (2009-12)

Price to Book (PBV) 2011

Return on Equity 2011

Sources: CICR Database (both)

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 12

IV. Bottom Up | Technical Analyst: Mohamed Elzayat

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 13

IV. Bottom Up | Technical (Cont.)

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 14

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 15

Automotive Sector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.

Automotive Mkt Cap Close at 52 Weeks Av. 6M Daily

Review | March 2011

Preview | April 2011

5x Average 10,000 9.5% 8.8% 8% 9,000

CI Capital | Egypt | Strategy Page 16

Banking S ector: Share Data As at 5th April 2011.