Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
July 2010
With support from Oxfam GB and the World Bank, researchers carried
out rapid qualitative assessment of the short-term social impacts of the
global economic crisis on businesses and workers in different sectors in
Ha Noi. The goal was to inform government understanding and policy
during the economic crisis following the initial stimulus package. This
paper summarises the findings of the initial rapid assessment and makes
some suggestions for further research areas and techniques.
2 Rapid assessment of the social impact of the global economic crisis in Viet Nam,
Oxfam Discussion Paper, July 2010
Methodologies
A rapid qualitative assessment was carried out at several sites in and around Ha Noi in
February 2009 to identify emerging initial impacts of the financial crisis. Sites were
chosen to capture the groups where substantial early impacts were expected: a sample of
five mobile labour markets in Ha Noi, two export-oriented craft villages (Bat Trang and
Ha Thai), and Thang Long Industrial Park.
The assessment was based on semi-structured interviews and group discussions using
PRA tools such as time lines and ranking exercises. In total, 105 respondents participated
in the fieldwork:
• Informal sector: three group discussions with 16 day labourers (of which three were
women), and interviews with nine day labourers (of which six were women).
• Craft villages: interviews with 29 craft businesses (of which 12 were companies and
cooperatives and 17 small-scale household enterprises), 12 labourers (of which four
were women), and six leaders of communes, villages and craft associations.
• Formal sector: interviews with a representative of the developer (landlord) of TLIP,
four managers of enterprises in and near TLIP, 23 workers (of which 18 were
women), representatives of the nearby vocational school, two leaders of communes
and villages and two hostel owners near TLIP.
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Oxfam Discussion Paper, July 2010
Key findings
This rapid assessment indicates that migrant labourers are finding less work and facing
reduced income. Some, particularly formal sector workers, are returning home. Others
are considering returning on a temporary basis, hoping they can search for work
elsewhere. Some are trying to stay in Ha Noi, either taking second jobs in less
remunerative sectors or, in some cases, combining reduced working hours with studying
and looking for better opportunities. They are particularly vulnerable to recent external
downturns and are bearing the early adverse impacts of the economic crisis. Trends and
patterns of employment, domestic migration and rural-urban linkages should be the key
indicators in monitoring the social impact of the economic crisis in the coming period.
4 Rapid assessment of the social impact of the global economic crisis in Viet Nam,
Oxfam Discussion Paper, July 2010
the earnings equally. However, differentiated gender impact is not fully understood
due to the limitations of the assessment.
• Research in five main mobile labour markets in Ha Noi reveals that the majority (an
estimated 70 per cent) of day labourers are mature/married people from poor rural
areas without adequate education or skills. Though their families remain in rural
areas and continue to farm their agricultural land, the livelihoods of the whole family
are significantly dependent on income from day labour. Coming to the labour
markets to do simple work becomes the main opportunity for them to earn in the
time available after finishing seasonal farm work at home. Thus, they will try to
continue with this work, even if gaining less income due to the economic crisis. One
male labourer from Buoi labour market says: “We are the main income earners of our
families. My wife at home only raises some pigs to make a few hundred thousand dong in
cash…relying heavily on my remittances. That’s why we have to continue this job regardless
of getting more or less income”. Some people may stay at home for a while, but will go
to the labour markets to find work. Another male labourer from Buoi labour market
explains that “we have low education, no skills, and little farmland at home; thus our only
choice is to follow this work. If we go back home, what we will do – just sit looking at each
other? How will we earn money to live?”
• The remaining 30 per cent of day labourers are single young people (sometimes even
students) who see standing at the labour markets as their temporary means to gather
some savings to switch to other jobs (e.g. receiving vocational training or migrating
far to the south). The current economic crisis makes this strategy very difficult.
• Some day labourers can do better than others in this difficult time. The respondents
in various group discussions explained that “professional” labourers who have
motorbikes and mobile phones (though second-hand and of low value) can get more
work from regular clients or can quickly come to the client’s address before others
who come by bicycle or by foot arrive.
Rapid assessment of the social impact of the global economic crisis in Viet Nam, 5
Oxfam Discussion Paper, July 2010
Ha Thai lacquer producers used to employ about 400 migrant labourers from
neighboring communes, but almost no migrant labourers have been employed since
Tet this year (2009). Migrant labourers in craft villages work on a
temporary/seasonal basis (no formal contractual agreements), and so just return to
their rural home villages without any severance payments.
• The flexibility of the two craft villages surveyed in adjusting their production scale,
the availability of accumulated savings and their low reliance on external credit have
made them less vulnerable to demand drops so far. A hypothesised second-round
effect in the craft villages, i.e. reduction of real spending on basic household welfare
(on daily consumption, education, healthcare etc.) has not yet occurred in this initial
phase of the economic crisis; though more luxury expenditure (erection of houses,
purchase of electronic appliances and furniture, tourism, etc.) have been much
restricted. The research team received no complaints from labourers interviewed
about the businesses’ paying monthly salaries late.
• Small household craft enterprises face fewer difficulties than the bigger craft
businesses under the export market declines, as the households are more flexible, i.e.
have less capital investment (in workshop, showrooms and equipment) and are able
to diversify to other livelihoods and quickly adjust product designs to serve the niche
domestic markets.
In the two craft villages surveyed, there were stories of big producers who had invested
heavily invested in equipment or workshops during the past two years and now face
tremendous difficulties. For example, one of the most apparently pioneering producers
in Bat Trang borrowed money from a commercial bank to build a new model of coal-
fired kiln in 2007. However, the price of suitable coal for this kiln soared from 800 000
dong per tonne in mid 2007 to 4.5 million dong per tonne in early 2008. This producer,
therefore, had to destroy his newly-built kiln, selling its iron scraps for only 500 million
dong and bearing an outstanding debt of 1.5 billion dong from the bank. Similarly, one
big lacquer company in Ha Thai invested nearly 1.3 billion dong in a 3000m2 workshop
and showroom in 2008. Now this company is facing a shortage of working capital to
sustain operation under the difficulties of having received no export orders since Tet this
year.
In contrast, a few craft businesses in Bat Trang have been able to sustain their production
because they focus on niche domestic markets, for example ceramics or porcelain
products for construction and renovation of pagodas and museums, or high-value fine
art ceramics with exclusive designs for collectors.
• In craft villages having some agricultural land, like Ha Thai, in the past the craft
households concentrated on the craft business and so hired migrant labourers to do
the farm work. Now falling demand has resulted in much less need for labour for
craft work; the craft households stop hiring the migrant labourers and go back to
doing the farm work themselves. The Ha Thai craft households used to hire more
than 100 migrant labourers, mostly from Thanh Hoa province, to do seasonal farm
work; now Ha Thai villagers do the farm work themselves.
• It was noted that impacts are different between craft villages. Higher risks appear in
Bat Trang, where the craft business is concentrated and no agricultural land is
available, compared to Ha Thai, where there is more diversity (lacquer, paper work
for worship, farming).
• However, the demand drops seem to deepen the long-lasting multiple difficulties of
the craft villages, i.e. poor infrastructure, environmental problems, fluctuating and
sharply increased input prices while product prices are unchanged or even reduced,
saturated demand for some traditional craft products, fierce competition with limited
business and marketing skills (e.g. being unable to compete with imported Chinese
6 Rapid assessment of the social impact of the global economic crisis in Viet Nam,
Oxfam Discussion Paper, July 2010
porcelain), lack of capital to upgrade machinery and expand production space, etc.
Many businesses were closing even before the current crisis. For example in Bat
Trang commune, the number of craft household producers declined from 1 200 in
2004 to 970 in 2007 and 800 by the end of 2008. The craft cooperatives, such as Hop
Luc and Song Cuong in Bat Trang, seem to be the most vulnerable businesses, due to
their failure to overcome the multiple difficulties present. Hop Luc’s monthly sales
dropped substantially from three or four containers per month (before 2008) to only
one or even no containers. The number of its employees has decreased from 100 to
only seven now.
• All craft businesses interviewed say that they do not benefit from access to the
Government’s stimulus package of providing concessional loans from banks. They
believe the main reasons are that they have no investment plan at this difficult time
and they often work on informal transactions without adequate paperwork to show
to the banks. It is noted that the horizontal linkages between the businesses are weak;
and almost all businesses interviewed did not comment positively on the role of the
craft associations in helping them to cope with the current difficulties.
Rapid assessment of the social impact of the global economic crisis in Viet Nam, 7
Oxfam Discussion Paper, July 2010
These companies may respond to the current crisis by producing inventories,
cleaning the factories and training workers.
• According to many of the workers interviewed, the FDI enterprises in TLIP prefer the
worker’s voluntary resignation rather than redundancies in downsizing, as
redundancies need to follow a strict procedure stipulated by the Labour Code and
may affect the company’s prestige. In fact, the representative of the TLIP developer
commented that none of the reported 3 000 workers who lost their jobs in the several
months to March 2009 were technically made redundant
• The FDI enterprises seem to follow the Labour Code in contractual arrangements.
Some enterprises provide an additional bonus (equalling one to two months’ wages)
for voluntary resignees. Respondents described a system developed by some firms to
reduce the workforce: based on performance, managers classified the workers into
several groups. This allowed them to find many legitimate reasons (e.g. bad health,
low productivity, poor discipline, etc.) to terminate the labour contracts of the
redundant workers.
• Newly employed workers are most vulnerable to job loss, as the enterprises simply
announce they will not renew current short-term or trial labour contracts. In a
number of interviews, workers reported that since late 2008, only short-term
contracts (three to six months) were signed, which allowed firms more flexibility in
reducing the workforce when necessary.
• As migrant workers account for the majority of the workforce in industrial parks –70
per cent of the total of 737 500 workers in IPs and EPZs in Ha Noi according to
Vietnam Economics News (2009) – they are being hit very hard by reduced wages and
unemployment during the current economic crisis.
• Migrant workers have suffered a double blow so far: the first impact has been sharply
increased living costs, from food to rental, in 2008 (though enterprises may increase
wages by around 10 per cent every year, the wage increases cannot cover the inflation
rate of nearly 23% in 2008); the second has been reduced income and the
risk of losing jobs since late 2008. Working overtime, the main way to increase
income for migrant workers, has been stopped in most enterprises since late 2008.
The double impact makes them unable to make any savings to remit home.
• The workers interviewed who are working but suffering rotational days off with 70
per cent pay say that, though trying their best to curb their personal costs, they
hardly save any money. For some workers who are elder siblings in their families,
their biggest worry is having no money to remit home to help their parents meet the
costs of education for their younger siblings. Instead of sending remittances to their
families, some other workers ask for money from their families or borrow from
friends, or even bring rice from home while working in the industrial park in this
difficult time. One female worker who comes from Vinh Phuc province, and has been
working in TLIP for three years, explains her situation: “This year I am receive a basic
salary of 1 280 000 dong, an increase from 1 120 000 dong last year. Allowances for
travelling and work responsibility also increased a bit. But now I have to take turns staying at
home for eight days per month and receiving 70 per cent pay. Last year, I could work extra
time, including weekends, to increase my income, and so could save 500–600 000 dong per
month. This year I have to pay 400 000 dong for hostel rent, 100 000 for electricity and
water, and 300 000 for meals each month, not to mention the costs for rice and cooking gas. I
used to bring some rice from my home here to save food costs, but this year the rice harvest at
home is lost. Now I have no money to save each month”.
• The workers interviewed who have just lost jobs in TLIP explain that they will try to
stay there unemployed for a while to find new jobs. However, securing a job in the
industrial park seems hopeless at this time, and almost none of the workers have
8 Rapid assessment of the social impact of the global economic crisis in Viet Nam,
Oxfam Discussion Paper, July 2010
available savings, except the severance payment, to stay unemployed for long. The
last solution for the workers is to go back home. Only a few workers can find other
temporary jobs (e.g. mechanics, hair-dressers’ assistants, cooking, meal delivery)
near the industrial park to pay the costs of hostel rental, food, and other basic daily
items or additional vocational training. One female worker, who comes from Ninh
Binh province, who lost her job in November 2008 after working in an electronic
appliance company in TLIP for three months, states that “I worked for the company for
three months, of which already one month was days off for 70 per cent pay. The company used
to employ 6 000 workers, but has only 3 000 now. The company encourage the workers to
voluntarily resign. As a new worker, fearing being laid off, I wrote a resignation letter to
receive two months’ wages as the severance payment from the company. I returned home last
November after losing my job, and just came back here a week ago to find work. I will try to
find a job here, it is impossible for me to return home again”.
• The workers interviewed say that female migrant workers account for the majority of
the labour force in the industrial parks. This fact is also confirmed by other sources;
for example, according to Vietnam Economics Times (2009), there are 60 per cent
women among 737 500 workers in IPs and EPZs in Ha Noi. However, the female
worker proportion in each factory depends on the characteristics of the work and
products. Some workers interviewed explain that in the TLIP electronics assembling
factories where massive job losses have occurred, female workers may account for
80–90% of the total workforce, thus many more female workers would bear the brunt
of the economic crisis here. On the other hand, male workers form the majority in
motorbike factories, or heavy and dangerous jobs.
• There are currently two parallel trends: the enterprises reduce the workforce, reduce
working time and cancel the employment of new labourers to save labour costs; and
many migrant workers are tired of reduced wages, cannot afford the increased costs
of living and cannot remit home, thus voluntarily resign and return to their rural
home villages. Therefore it is also not easy for any enterprise seeking to employ a
large number of workers for simple jobs and low wages.
• Impacts on the communities near the industrial parks are also clear, as they invested
heavily in hostels to let, but there is a lack of tenants now even where rents have been
reduced. For example, Vong La commune near TLIP supplied 60 per cent of its land
for the development of the IP. The local economy was restructured towards services
for IP workers. Around 200 villagers in the commune had already invested their land
compensation of 65 million dong per sao (360m2) in hostels for rent. The hostel
owners suffer from the impact of rent demand drop, as most of the hostels have had
to close up to 50–70 per cent of their rooms despite offering lower rent. One hostel
owner in Sap Mai village, Vong La commune, sadly complains: “It was a mistake when
I erected this five-room hostel last year. It cost me 90 million dong, taken from the
compensation for my three sao of land for expansion of the industrial park. Since Tet this year
only two or three rooms have been occupied though I reduced the monthly rent from 400 000
dong last year to 350 000 dong per room now. With an unstable monthly income of less than
1 million dong, how long will it take me to pay back my money?”
• Associated services for the migrant workers are also stagnant (e.g. selling breakfast,
food and groceries). Labourers who worked in a catering company serving the TLIP
workers say that their workforce has reduced by 30 per cent since late 2008.
Rapid assessment of the social impact of the global economic crisis in Viet Nam, 9
Oxfam Discussion Paper, July 2010
Suggestions for follow up
• Given the limitation of the first quick assessment, the research team could not
investigate the situation of returned migrants and their families in their rural home
villages, but this seems to be the most important issue among the initial social
impacts of the economic crisis. All three components of the research have brought up
the importance of links to rural areas and showed very strongly the
interconnectedness of labour markets in urban/peri-urban areas and rural welfare.
While a longer-term research agenda might take some time to set up, immediate
follow-up research on this issue appears crucial to get a fuller and timely picture of
the current impact, and could provide better insights into policy discussion for the
government. This could include a similar quick assessment in the South and follow-
up research in some major emigration provinces (such as Nghe An, Thanh Hoa, Nam
Dinh or Vinh Phuc). [This follow-up research will take place in late March and early
April 2009].
• Differentiated gender impact is not yet fully understood due to the time limitation of
the assessment, and should be explored further in the follow-up research.
• The assessment was undertaken right after Tet, when generally fewer day labourers
come back to work in daily mobile markets as demand often falls after Tet. Also
orders to craft villages often fall after Tet (after the peak demand at year-end and
before Tet). A diachronic approach should be applied to monitor the impacts in the
coming period.
• It seems to be still too early to detect any social consequences of the economic crisis,
for example crime, violence, social unrest or increased tensions between migrants
and local residents. We found almost no visible evidence on these issues in the sites
surveyed, except for some complaints by both migrant workers and local people of
some anti-social behaviour (e.g. theft and robbery) in the villages surrounding TLIP
where the workers rent hostels.
• It proved to be difficult to arrange interviews with FDI enterprise managers in
industrial parks, as they are busy solving their own problems, and perhaps fear
losing prestige when researchers want to talk about their difficulties and the
workers’ issues. Better arrangements should be made for similar assessments in the
South.
10 Rapid assessment of the social impact of the global economic crisis in Viet Nam,
Oxfam Discussion Paper, July 2010
Notes
1. This research was supported by Oxfam GB and the World Bank. The research
team comprised Hoang Xuan Thanh (Ageless Consultants) – team leader, Nguyen Tam
Giang (consultant), Nguyen Thi Thu Phuong (CAF-VASS), Nguyen Ngoc Anh
(DEPOCEN) and Dinh Thi Thu Phuong (Ageless). Some staff from Oxfam GB, CAF-
VASS and Ageless also joined the team at times. The research was carried out in early
2009, and this report was written in March 2009.
2. US$1=VND 17 490
Rapid assessment of the social impact of the global economic crisis in Viet Nam, 11
Oxfam Discussion Paper, July 2010
© Oxfam International July 2010
This paper was written by Viet Nam Academy of Social Sciences. Oxfam acknowledges the
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12 Rapid assessment of the social impact of the global economic crisis in Viet Nam,
Oxfam Discussion Paper, July 2010