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NCAA

COACH X ANONYMOUS

The player-coach
bond lasts long
afer guys leave.
Most of the time.
It’s the end of the lIne for a lot of players, and
I’ll admit it, some of them are guys I never want to see leave.
Relationships like the ones between Big John Thompson
and Allen Iverson or Coach K and Steve Wojciechowski,
those are special bonds that don’t happen often. Jim
Calhoun has had that with Kemba Walker—a teacher with
a talented student who wants to know more. Coaches have
a soft spot in our hearts for that kind of player. But we know
we can’t have that connection with every guy. he doesn’t meet the expectations I lay down, I’ll suspend they can jump around to avoid accountability. It’s incred-
I keep in touch with about half of my former players. him from practices or games to show him no one player is ibly important to get a player who wants to be coached.
Usually, they’re the guys who visited my office often when bigger than our program. Some guys have a tough time with Now, I don’t know if you can ever know how much a kid is
they were on the team. Mostly, we e-mail, but sometimes that concept. As stars in high school, they didn’t hear the willing to change. So the question is, Am I willing to find
one of them will stop by practice, for old times’ sake. word “no” much. But if anyone disagrees with me, he is out? Look at Renardo Sidney at Mississippi State; certain
I’d say I have liked 80% of the players I’ve coached. It welcome to transfer. Unfortunately, that’s an increasingly coaches are definitely better at dealing with that kind of
doesn’t happen often, but sometimes there will be a player common occurrence in college hoops these days. situation than others. John Calipari has a rep among
I just don’t get along with. When he leaves school, he knows Blame part of that on the fact that college life can really coaches for being incredible at working with guys who,
sucker punch freshmen. When they arrive let’s be honest, a lot of elite schools wouldn’t recruit. He’s
on campus, they’re just unprepared for a great salesman, but I also hear he genuinely cares.
I Can’t know how MuCh a kId Is the demands put on the student-athlete. And he’s drummed up a reputation among players both
wIllInG to ChanGe. QuestIon Is: Most practiced for only 90 minutes in high for his history of success and for gaining respect from

aM I wIllInG to fInd out? school. We can go twice as long, and that’s


on top of all the classes, studying, weights
guys other coaches wouldn’t touch. A kid who has never
listened to an authority figure looks at Calipari and says,
and film they have to juggle, too. It’s a “Look what he’s done with guys like me.”
I won’t want to see him again, and I doubt he’ll lose any shock, for sure. Coaches steer players away from certain I’ve had kids who come in here and get off to a rocky
sleep about not seeing me anymore either. That’s one of majors for that reason. Personally, I don’t want a kid who start. Their grades are poor and their eligibility is hanging
the risks that comes with recruiting a teamful of players. has never spent a regimented day in his life on my team at by a thread. But usually, we’re lucky. They learn from our
Not everyone is going to get the same satisfaction out of the same time he is taking a science class that requires lab upperclassmen and grow. If we’ve done our work, by the
the experience. hours. Athletic programs have tutors and advisers to help time they graduate, our student-athletes have received a
Like any coach, I’ve had guys who were more trouble athletes stay on track, but all the support in the world can’t better education than their peers. They learn how to work
than talent. When someone isn’t the right fit for my ready every player for the challenge. I mean, my staff and I with others when times are tough—and times will get
program or I’m not the right coach for him, I’ll tell him so. If recently had a big fight with a guy who didn’t want to tough. Most normal students couldn’t even begin to
attend a mandatory study hall! comprehend the character that requires.
I’ve come to appreciate the importance of a player’s And that’s why, after my players step off the court for
CHRIS TROTMAN/GETTY IMAGES

Coach X heads a top NCAA hoops program, with many March


attitude, especially with so many of them brought up in a the last time, I’m happy to keep in touch with them. For the
Madness appearances under his belt. This is his third column.
world of single-parent families and AAU programs that most part, anyway.

FOR MORE INSIDE DOPE FROM PROS, HEAD TO THE player X BloG, AT ESPN.COM/INSIDER, WITH INCOGNITO REPORTS FROM THE nfl, nBa, MlB AND nasCar.

12 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011

0418COACHX_lo.indd 12 3/31/11 9:55 PM


VOICES steve wulf

When it comes
to the importance
of wins as a stat,
we can all agree
to disagree.
I have been wantIng to take the mound for some
time now. I am willing to make a pitch on behalf of some-
thing I hold dear, but that others dismiss, deride and
detest. I toe the slab for the losing cause of wins.
My opponents are the sabermetricians, that new
breed of baseball execs and readers of The Magazine,
who in our most recent NEXT issue (Jan. 10) voted wins for
pitchers as the most overrated stat in sports. Even my own
sons roll their eyes when I come to the defense of the W, most responsibility for the outcome, the starting pitcher, even agreed that over a career, wins are a good indicator
the same way they do when I sing the praises of Deep gets the credit or blame. Yes, you want a starter with nasty of a starting pitcher’s worth. But Tango says one season is
Purple. All of them seem smug and flush with success now stuff—and numbers reflect that. But you also want a too small a sample: “In a season, things don’t cancel out.
that Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez (he of the 2.27 ERA, pitcher with intangibles like heart, brains and poise. For example, the offense, defense and bullpen behind
1.057 WHIP and 13–12 record) is the American League’s I am not alone in that belief, but my team is aging. In my Hernandez are taken from the same 2010 pool. But over a
defending Cy Young Award winner. dugout sit the cranky scribes who once used typewriters 15-year career, he’ll have a varied pool of hitters and

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION REFERENCE, FROM LEFT: MATHEW EMMONS/US PRESSWIRE; KIRBY LEE/US PRESSWIRE; KIM KLEMENT/US PRESSWIRE
Hernandez beat out the Yankees’ 21-game-winner, and the veteran scouts in straw hats who can remember fielders behind him, and a random set of relievers.”
CC Sabathia, and the Rays’ 19-game-winner, David Price, seeing a Hall of Famer while he was still in high school. Good point, but why the vehemence against wins?
for the award. But at the rate he’s going, “The game has gotten less personal, Tango replies, “Those we argue with don’t even want to
King Felix would have to pitch for 38 more numbers-oriented,” says Jim consider the context. They simply say, ‘13–12!’ The
more years to eclipse Young’s 511 victo- It was a Palmer, who was enshrined in Cooper- supporters of wins are in an all-or-nothing mode. If they
ries. Yes, those wins were racked up in a football stown with 268 wins. “These are the would just agree that it is heavily biased at the seasonal
dead-ball era when pitchers routinely
coach who metrics I cared about: If I won 20 games, level, then we wouldn’t have a problem. For some people,
went nine innings and started more than the Cy Young and had an ERA below it’s admitting defeat. For others, it’s an epiphany.”
40 games a season, but it is called the
saId, “you 2.50, I might get a $20,000 raise.” Partially epiphanized, I would now ask both sides
Cy Young Award for a reason. It may have play to wIn The gap between schools, new and to lower the volume. As resistant as the old school is to
been a football coach who said, “You the game,” but old, seems so wide that occasionally algorithms, so too is the new school to concepts like
play to win the game,” but Herm Edwards
herm edwards the sides feel the need to shout at clutch and pressure.
was right. Wins are the meta-stat, the each other. (Google the recent bench- Both sides should listen to Pirates starter Ross
sine qua non of baseball. Every metric
was rIght. clearing brawl between old-schooler Ohlendorf, who went 1–11 in 2010 but still got a
ultimately points to the likelihood of Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco $1.6 million raise by virtue of winning his arbitration case.
scoring or preventing runs, and the team that scores more Chronicle and Sports Illustrated’s Joe Posnanski.) My “I should be the last person you ask to defend wins as a
runs wins. It’s only fair that the player who shoulders the matchup with Tom Tango, a statistical consultant to major stat,” he says. “I went from 11–10 in 2009 to 1–11 even
league teams and the creator of such popular acronymic though my ERA and WHIP were only slightly higher, and I’m
metrics as WAR (wins above replacement) and FIP very grateful to those who realized that. But you know
steve wulf IS the edItor In chIef
of eSpn bookS. (fielding independent pitching), was far more civil. what? Every time I take the mound, I know I have one job:
We agreed that wins are the currency in all sports. We Get us deep enough in the game to win.”

for More InSIGht And opInIon froM the LIkeS of bUSter oLneY, chAd ford And MeL kIper Jr., check oUt eSpn.coM/InSIder. It’s free for mag subscrIbers.

14 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011 Illustration by Peter Horvath

0418VOICES_lo.indd 14 3/30/11 9:30 PM


NEXT LEVEL PETER KEATING

The nerds are


coming to
hockey, and
they have the
NHL’s lame stats
in their sights.
Hockey MeTRIcS aRe Today wHeRe SabeRMeTRIcS
were about 20 years ago, with a far-flung group of mostly
amateur researchers offering stats that shed light on
true value while destroying old biases. Unfortunately,
most NHL fans, not to mention coaches and media types,
seem to have little use for the newfangled numbers.
Puckheads, I beseech you: Get with the program. Don’t
do it to keep up with your enlightened baseball and foot-
ball brethren, but because your traditional stats—goals Let’s say we put all the stats that don’t correlate well shots toward goal than it allows. Good players are the
and assists and such—do a terrible job of explaining from season to season into one pile, which we’ll call ones who help make that happen. And because shot
what makes a player great and a team win. Stuff That Just Happened. Let’s place what’s left in a volume is a much broader measure of offense and
It’s hard to think of NHL results as driven by anything pile called Stuff That’s Likely to Happen Again. The first defense than goals, it correlates much more strongly
but talent and determination. Statistically, though, heap will be filled with numbers that win players head- with future performance.
there are two key facts to know about hockey. First, its lines, MVP awards and raises. But it’s the second that Canucks center Ryan keSleR currently leads the
numbers are noisy, which is to say, measures of on-ice indicates skill and predicts the future—and that’s what NHL with a Corsi rating of 17.14 per 60 minutes (among
performance often don’t carry over we should care about and reward. So players with a minimum of 50 games). Islanders center
well from year to year. To pick one what exactly is in that pile? Zenon Konopka has the lowest Corsi number (-26.83

0.6
typical example, over the past five Welcome to Corsi numbers, named per 60 minutes). Of course, any plus/minus-type metric
seasons Chris Mason has had save after Sabres goaltending coach Jim rewards players on good teams while damning guys

clockwise FRoM ToP: HaRRy How/geTTy iMages; jiM Mcisaac/geTTy iMages; bRuce benneTT/geTTy iMages
percentages of .925, .898, .916, Corsi, who developed them. While who soak up combat duty for losers. So some analysts
.913 and .892. Team shooting per- Through March 30, Tampa Bay’s traditional plus/minus looks at the prefer Relative Corsi, which is the shot differential
Steven Stamkos led all NHL
centages fluctuate a lot too, as do difference between how many goals when a player is on the ice minus the differential
centers with 44 goals. But his 0.6
scoring rates on (or against) power Relative Corsi ranked him are scored and allowed while a player when he’s off it; essentially, it compares players with
plays. This volatility indicates a lot of behind Darren Helm (11 goals, 5.4 is on the ice, a Corsi number is the their teammates. Relative Corsi is favorable to Leafs
Rel. Corsi), Kevin Porter (13, 2.3),
randomness behind the numbers. difference between how many shots center MIkHaIl GRabovSkI (22.5), less so to Canucks
Colin Wilson (15, 1.0) and 73
Key Fact No. 2: Hockey is a other players at his position are directed at the opposing goal and forward Tanner Glass (-29.7). Look at either version of
low-scoring game. NHL teams are with at least 50 games played. how many shots are directed at a Corsi, though, and you’ll have a greater appreciation
averaging just 2.7 goals a game this player’s own goal while he is on the ice. for unheralded players such as Islanders wing MIcHael
season, and that means that after Corsi is a valuable metric because it GRabneR and Sabres wing Jochen Hecht. Neither guy
scores resulting from deflections or odd bounces, it can evaluates players against the context of a team stat skates on a first line, but both are on the ice when good
take a long time for luck to even out. Notes Gabriel that is both significant to winning and predictive of it: things happen for his team.
Desjardins of the Behind the Net blog: “A team’s actual shot volume. In any one game, a club can be unusually Hockey fans have long been okay with the concept
goals for and goals against are merely a sample of their efficient or particularly well-positioned or just flat-out of plus/minus, an official NHL statistic since 1963. So
ability to score and prevent goals, and we need a lot of lucky. But to win more games than it loses over the how about we finally start to add and subtract numbers
games to see their actual talent.” course of a season, a team needs to direct a lot more that actually matter?

KEATING TAKEs you dEEpEr INsIdE ThE world of sTATs ANd ANAlyTIcs IN hIs nexT level bloG,oN EspN.com/INsIdEr. It’s free for mag SubScRIbeRS.

16 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011

0418LEVEL_lo.indd 16 4/1/11 9:43 PM


STOP/WATCH
SPORTS FOR HUNTERS AND GATHERERS ...

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Photographs by World Picture Service ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011 23

0418GO1-2.lo.indd 23 4/1/11 11:11 PM


STOP/WATCH
SPORTS FOR HUNTERS AND GATHERERS …

Fine wire acT One-wOMan weaVe


Proximity to the Verizon Susan Martin Maffei’s
Center has finally affected (http://bit.ly/susanmm)
THIS the National Portrait Gallery. influences include Paracas

WEEK IN ... Until Aug. 14, visitors can


see the late Alexander
embroidery, Incan stitching
and the mowing patterns of
DC ART Calder’s (calder.org) wire MLB outfields. See her
caricatures of sports stars tapestry “Who’s Not On 2nd”
of the ’20s and ’30s, like (below) at the Textile
the one of The Babe below. Museum come April 16.

1. “One TOO Many HOT DOg MOrnings” I want to do a


song about Babe Ruth that would involve some kind of
twist on his general bio or public image.
BASEBALL
2. “HeaDFirsT secOnD Base Blues” Tim Raines
TUNES deserves a song just for admitting he often slid headfirst

CLOCKWISE FROM TOP RIGHT: ROSS OBLEY; NOAH GRAHAM/NBAE/GETTY IMAGES; FERNANDO MEDINA/NBAE/GETTY IMAGES; JOHN RAOUX/AP IMAGES; FERNANDO MEDINA/NBAE/GETTY IMAGES;
Indie supergroup the to protect the vial of cocaine in his back pocket. The icing
Baseball Project has fol- on the cake is his nickname: Rock.
lowed up its rookie effort
Volume 1: Frozen Ropes and 3. “O HOly cOw” My favorite baseball book is O Holy
Dying Quails with a new set Cow. It’s some of Phil Rizzuto’s more bizarre actual
“I was familiar with 12 Angry Mascots when they asked about doing of hardball-themed tunes,
a video, so I knew what I was getting into. They developed the broadcasts in verse form. I could just lay an
Volume 2: High and Inside.
concept for an at-bat music bit, then we bounced ideas around. It E chord behind that stuff and have an amazing song.
That all they have to say
FUNNY was perfect, because I do spend time searching for the perfect song,
although never at 3:45 a.m. I mean, it’s part of our on-ffeld identity.
about the ol’ ball game?
4. “in BeD BeFOre THe ligHTs wenT OuT” Modern
GUYS The video is short, but we spent more than a few minutes fflming;
Nah. Singer-guitarist
Steve Wynn describes players are too damn boring. Bring on the crusty, cranky,
there were a lot of takes. The ffnal product is fun, and I posted it on some as-yet unwritten crazy old guys. Cool Papa Bell not only had a killer
Sports-comedy purveyor
Twitter and Facebook, which some teammates follow. They think cuts we might see on a nickname, he was also described as being fast enough to
12 Angry Mascots
it’s funny. In real life I picked future album.
(12angrymascots.com) switch off the light and be in bed before it got dark.
Busta Rhymes’ ‘Put Your
has produced sketches
Hands Where My Eyes Can
with the likes of Darrelle 5. “MOre BenDers THan cHieF BenDer” Grover
See’ for my Opening Day
Revis and Craig Breslow. Cleveland Alexander allegedly saved Game 7 of the World
at-bat, but the announcers
The star of their latest

COURTESY 12 ANGRY MASCOTS; CALDER FOUNDATION, NEW YORK/ART RESOURCE; COURTESY SUSAN MARTIN MAFFEI
played Rebecca Black’s Series with a hangover. That he was named after one
video, Curtis Granderson president and ended up being portrayed in a film by a
‘Friday,’ because they saw
(http://bit.ly/curtis12am), future one [Ronald Reagan, The Winning Team] is only a
the video. I’m still trying to
talks about the process.
ffgure out who pranked me.” plus. See? These songs write themselves.

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Dec. 7, wizarDs aT laKers FeB. 3, Magic Vs. HeaT MarcH 7, Magic Vs. Trail Blazers of the Game “Unpowder”
MarcH 25, Magic Vs. neTs

GILBERT’S “These aren’t meant for


basketball, but I never wore
“I rushed to wear the
original Foamposites
“No one knew about the navy-
and-white Jordan XIIIs I wore. “Our shoes have to be
FOOTWEAR basketball shoes in high when I heard Nike was Bloggers called them bootlegs, Magic colors, but I sneak in
school. I preferred running re-releasing them in but I know people who know off-blue pairs. Most of my
When Adidas stopped
shoes and cross-trainers.” February.” people who know MJ, okay?” Jordans have UNC blue.”
sponsoring Gilbert Arenas
last year, he began to tap his
closet of nearly 3,000 pairs
of unworn kicks. He wears
each just once, then shows
them on http://bit.ly/GilKicks.
Here are some you won’t
see when the NBA playofis
start on April 16.

24 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011

0418GO1-2.lo.indd 24 4/1/11 11:11 PM


FoR loVE oR THE GaME
WITH clay bucHHolz

Who knows the Red


Sox hurler better, his
adoring wife, Lindsay,
or fellow flamethrower
Jon Lester? To see,
TaPPING IN
On March 23, West Virginia’s state
we quizzed him, then
senate voted to sanction pro MMA
grilled them. Because
fights. That makes 45 states that have
life is not a rain delay.
opened the door to big-time circuits
clay lINDSay JoN like the UFC. What’s eating those five
holdouts? -TIM STRUBY
fAvOriTe hObby? Video games. Video games. That’s Playing guitar.
easy. alaSKa Despite the state’s 2002 deci-
sion to stop sanctioning fighting sports,
5 0 Sarah Johnston, owner of the Alaska
mOsT prized My little girl, Colbi. Our daughter. If he says His guitar. Fighting Championship, believes new
pOssessiOn? otherwise, we’re going regulation is in the cards. “There’s not
to have problems. much organization pushing for it,” she
says, “but there’s no opposition either.”
5 0

TeAmmATe he GOes Lack [John Lackey]. He’s John Lackey. They’re Everyone. There’s coNNEcTIcuT In February, state rep
TO fOr AdviCe? been around. He knows really close. no one person he Matt Lesser introduced a bill to permit pro
how to handle things. goes to. MMA bouts, and it breezed through the
Public Safety and Security Committee.
5 0
Lesser expects the same result with the
fAvOriTe rOAd Yankee Stadium. I like the I’m torn: Anaheim or Texas, because he’s state legislature. “By October, Connecticut
sTAdium TO atmosphere. It reminds New York? I’m going to from there. should be ready to go,” he says.

FROM LEFT: DUSTIN BRADFORD/ICON SMI; FRAZER HARRISON/GETTY IMAGES; ELSA/GETTY IMAGES; AL BELLO/ZUFFA LLC/GETTY IMAGES
piTCh in? me of Fenway. say Anaheim.
NEW yoRK The biggest impediment?
0 0
Democratic assemblyman Bob Reilly,
besT feATure? My hair. I like his eyes, but he’s Being tall. who has likened MMA to dogfighting and
going to say his hair. I prostitution. Others disagree. “It makes no
can’t get him to cut it. sense to have billboards in Times Square
promoting MMA but not allow a bout in
5 0
Madison Square Garden,” says New York
LeAsT fAvOriTe Running. Running. He always Stretching. assemblyman Jonathan Bing. “I will
bAsebALL ACTiviTy? complains about it when continue my efforts to legalize MMA prior
he gets home. to the end of the 2011 session in June.”

5 0
VERMoNT “We’ve had 11 amateur shows
whAT GAme shOw Wheel of Fortune. Wipe Out. He always The Price Is Right. I in five years and never had a problem,”
wOuLd he GO On? says, “I could do that.” know I’d like to go on it. says Julio Fernandez, head of Burlington
Brawl, Vermont’s top promotional entity.
0 0
Then again, he’s not sure regulation is even
necessary. “I make sure to use the same
TOTAL: 25 0 rules as MMA events in other states.”
 
Clay is no longer the only Buchholz with a no-no.
WyoMING The Cowboy State hasn’t had
Lindsay goes untouched, 25-0, in this all-time rout.
a boxing commission in over 20 years. But
Steve Alley of promoter Kick Down MMA
has put on over 30 amateur MMA shows
in Casper without a hitch. “Sooner or later,
regulation will happen,” he says. “Until it
does, I’ll keep doing exactly what I’ve done.” 

26 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011

0418GO3.lo.indd 26 4/1/11 10:48 PM


SQUAWK THE WIDE WORDS OF SPORTS
PREAK OUT
The Maryland Jockey
Club’s new Preakness
marketing campaign has
raised eyebrows with

THE
its fete-ready mascot,
Kegasus. Club prez Tom
Chuckas counters the
hubbub. -NEIL JANOWITZ

NEXT THE KEGASUS IS INSPIRED, BUT IT’S A


CURIOUS CHOICE FOR THE FACE OF A

ROUND
TRIPlE CROwN RACE, NO? You have to
realize it’s just one of two Preakness cam-
paigns; the other focuses on its tradition and
pageantry. The Kegasus is a mascot for the
With Nene , Nuggets center InfieldFest, a party that targets fans aged 21
to 40. It’s a group often overlooked in racing.

Many people wrote off Denver’s team once Melo cut town. But those naysayers, DO YOU CARE IF GUESTS wATCH THE
much like All-Star voters, overlooked the steadying influence that remained. RACES, OR DO YOU JUST wANT TO lURE
THE mOST REVElERS POSSIBlE? Both.
the mag: Why has the team done so well since the trade? We asked some fans if they had any questions. They did. The Preakness is our big event, so we need to
N: We have a deeper bench and a different style. Melo is Kevin Zamell, littletOn, COlO.: How did the Melo maximize revenues. The infield is a huge part
a big talent, but now we have more speed, defense, trade drama affect the team? of that. But regardless of what brings them to
toughness and unity. It’s how I was taught to play. N: Melo is goofy; he likes to make you laugh. So in the locker the track, we’re hoping people have a pleas-
the mag: Melo has been criticized for not playing D. Is room it was fine. But it wasn’t easy for us to be part of that ant experience watching the races and want
your improved defense a case of addition by subtraction? conversation. When someone’s not happy, he has to go. to return. That’s why we’ll have handicapping
N: I can say this: When you try to do your best, you get Melo is where he wants to be, and we’re doing well. experts on hand for novices.
results. I try to do my best on defense. Usually it works. Everybody is happy now.
the mag: What’s a realistic playoff goal for you guys? OKAY, BUT IS THIS A BAND-AID OR A
N: If we continue to play together, we can go far. I know it. ChRiS WagneR, milWaUKee: Are you getting along REVOlUTION? Younger demos want a lot
with your new teammates? of things going on at once. The races are the

CLOCKWISE FROM TOP MIDDLE: GARRETT ELLWOOD/NBAE/GETTY IMAGES; MARYLAND JOCKEY CLUB (2); LORENZO BEVILAQUA/ESPN
the mag: You grew up in Brazil. Did you play soccer? N: I like them all. Gallo [Gallinari] tries to speak Portuguese centerpiece, but they’re not enough. So we’re
N: I played a lot of sports: track and field, swimming, because it’s similar to Italian, but he messes up words. And offering bands, restaurant tents and volley-
martial arts and soccer. One year I couldn’t find cleats in they all try to beat me in FIFA. It’s funny: Timo [Mozgov] ball, too. We’re going to program other week-
my size, so my soccer coach gave me basketball shoes. I curses in Russian and Gallo in Italian. ends similarly—such as a Kentucky Derby
started playing that more. It was a good decision. simulcast party and infield wine tastings.
the mag: Any desire to change your name again? JOSh hOUy, Rapid City, S.d.: Do you prefer to play Eventually, we’ll add other entertainment
N: I like Nene. But our strength coach calls me Beast, center or power forward? options in the main building. Purists may
and the guys call me Moose. Those would be fine too. N: I’ve played center for a few years, but my original complain, but I see no downside to a party.
position is power forward. I hope to return to it one day. At
the mag: When you arrived in the States, you had a my size, I can do more damage there.
translator. Now your English is great. What’s the trick?
N: I take it day by day. The locker room is all slang and ben hall, denveR: Are you going to re-sign? Should we
cursing, so you can’t learn good English there. My wife is expect any Nene trade or contract drama?
American. She helps me with the nice words. N: I don’t think there will be drama. I don’t like to be in the
spotlight. I just expect what I deserve. Today I’m happy
the mag: In 2008, you fought testicular cancer. Is the here. Tomorrow I leave to God.
battle won?
N: Yes, and when it happened I realized it was God’s plan
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0418GO5.lo.indd 30 4/1/11 9:50 PM


GUILHERME
BODY MARCHI

SHOT
28, professional bull rider

ON HANGING TOUGH
“Other riders keep a looser grip to give
themselves more balance on the bull.
I wasn’t taught to do that growing up
in São Paulo, so I rely more on strength.
I hardly lift any weights because I don’t
want to be too tight. Strong arms have
been passed through generations in
my family.”

FOR MORE EXCLUSIVE MARCHI PHOTOS, CHECK OUT


ESPN.COM/INSIDER. TO SEE HIM RIDE LIVE, CHECK OUT
PBR’S LAST COWBOY STANDING, APRIL 16 ON PPV.

32 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011 Photograph by Peter Hapak

0418GO6.lo.indd 32 3/30/11 8:18 PM


For 21 SEASoNS, DUANE
KUIPEr AND MIKE
KrUKoW HAVE CALLED
GIANTS GAMES oN
CoMCAST SPorTSNET
BAY ArEA. AND For 10 oF
THEM, B.I. oLIVITo HAS
KEPT AN EAr To THE
GroUND AND AN EYE oN
THE WEB To MAKE SUrE
THEY HAVE PLENTY oF
SHINY STATS AND FACTS
AT THEIr FINGErTIPS. 1. i have a pregame ritual too.
“Before a game, I scour a team’s media
relations releases for recent trends. If

6
I spot one, I’ll keep it handy for quick
access later on. I also key on the
highest number of pitches the starters
have thrown that season and in their
careers, and their season- and
game-high strikeout totals.”

2. if i don’t know it, i know who


does. “I pass information on an index
things card or whiteboard or via a headset.
You Sometimes I know a fact or get it from
a media guide, but usually I go online.
should Mike once asked me how many righty

know batters had gotten a hit at AT&T Park.


I’m in constant contact with the Elias
aBout Sports Bureau during a game. They got

making
us the answer [727] in 10 minutes.
Before the Internet, it was much
Broad- harder to get that kind of info.”

Casters 3. aCCuraCY is everYthing. “The

sound veracity of the facts I provide is on me.


So I double-check everything, even if it
smart takes extra time. I also carry a rule
book everywhere and discuss odd
BY B.i. olivito, plays and calls with the scorers so I
talent stats memBer can explain them again in the future.”
for ComCast
sportsnet BaY area 4. i guard against information
AS TOLD TO overload. “Today, there are many
LAURA DOWNHOUR more stats than even 10 years ago,
stuff like how many times a batter
swings at the first pitch or which
batters take the most pitches. Pitch
counts are a bigger deal these days too.
Some broadcasters try to get it all in;
Duane and Mike keep things simple.”

5. i need to keep mY eYes on the


Ball. “During a high-scoring game,
we may see lots of substitutions; all of
a sudden so-and-so is at second. I’m
more likely to miss a guy who enters
in, say, the third inning. You’re not
looking for subs so early. There could
be two outs before I realize someone
new has taken the field.”

6. timing is everYthing. “Nothing’s


worse than bothering Duane and Mike
with a stat while they’re making a
point. One time I passed Mike an index
card and he threw it out the window.
I’m better at guessing where they’re
going with a thought now.”

34 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011 Photograph by Robyn Twomey

0418GO7.lo.indd 34 3/31/11 10:01 PM


NBA
Inside the lines/Around the game

rookie
challenge
spurs sub gary neal
took the long road to
the nba.
By Anna Katherine Clemmons

Once upOn a time, Gary neal thOuGht


he’d spend his days as a basketball player toiling
in Europe. Or as a teacher. Or, for a moment, a
convicted felon. Sharpshooting NBA combo
guard? Not likely. The league’s second-oldest
rookie who’s been a consistent contributor to
one of its best teams all season? Never.
The question wasn’t whether the military
brat could ball. He averaged a triple-double
his junior year of high school and guided
Aberdeen to a Maryland state title. Then, as
La Salle’s leading scorer his freshman year, he
won Atlantic 10 Rookie of the Year honors. This
was 2003. The year LeBron was drafted. John

Photograph by Michael Thad Carter ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011 37

0418PNBAXX_LO.indd 37 4/1/11 7:32 PM


SPECIAL ADVERTISEMENT

NBA
PRESENTED BY:

1. Cut out Bobblehead Flo. Wall, this season’s top NBA draft pick, was 12.
2. Place her on your desk. Neal led the Explorers in scoring again his
sophomore year and remained on campus over the
3. Log on to espn.com/streak. summer. After a party one night, he and La Salle
4. Make confident choices with teammate Mike Cleaves went back to their dorm
with a female who was a counselor at a basketball
Flo by your side.
camp on campus. The woman would later accuse
Neal and Cleaves of rape.
“It really didn’t register,” Neal says. “In my mind
it was like, ‘That’s a little weird, but not anything
close to what happened.’” Weeks later Neal was
arrested and charged with rape, sexual assault
and other crimes.
Neal’s family drove to Philadelphia and posted bail.
After he got back to Maryland, Neal told his family
that a rape had not occurred. Pending the police
investigation, La Salle put Neal on probation. He
enrolled in Towson and attended classes while the
case plodded through the system. Sixteen months
later, the nine-day trial ended in an acquittal; DNA points and shot 41.6% from behind the arc in 20.8
evidence proved there had been sexual contact, but the minutes of action. But he is scoring 12.5 PPG in 24.7 MPG
jury believed it had been consensual. since the break and ranks first among all rookies in made
Neal played pickup ball to keep in shape while awaiting three-pointers with 117. “The coaches and scouts get
trial, until he scored 78 points one night and the regulars excited about a shooter from the summer league, but the
kicked him out of the game. In November 2005, the past couple of ones weren’t very good, so I didn’t expect
month after his trial ended, he played in his first game for anything,” says Tony Parker. “But he’s been consistent, and
Towson as a junior. By the end of his senior season, he’d he’s hit big shots for us.”
used his head for the game and his deft shooting skills to After all the miles this rookie has traveled, hitting from
become only the third player to score 1,000 points for 24 feet isn’t all that hard.
two D1 schools. And yet, not a single NBA team called.
His father suggested the 22-year-old Neal obtain his
teaching certificate and look for a job. Instead, Neal took The LIsT
an offer with Turkish club Pinar Karsiyaka. After 19 games
he was averaging 23.6 points and was transferred to Euro MOST COVETED
giant Regal FC Barcelona. There he began to hone his skills, BASKETBALL
improving his shot selection, learning both guard spots
CARDS*

FROM LEFT: KYLE TERADA/US PRESSWIRE; FERNANDO MEDINA/NBAE VIA GETTY IMAGES
and becoming more patient. In 2008, Neal signed with WhO DOESn’T WAnT A nAT hOLMAn?
Italian powerhouse Benetton Treviso, where he averaged
1. 1948 Bowman George Mikan (No. 69)
15.9 points per game over two seasons.
2. 1933 Goudey Sport Kings Nat Holman (No. 3)
Spurs scouts noticed, and invited Neal to work out with
the team last June—a tryout that turned into a $525,000 3. 1957 Topps Bill Russell (No. 77)

offer. Despite bigger offers on the table from other Euro 4. 1957 Topps Bob Cousy (No. 17)
squads, Neal accepted. General manager R.C. Buford says 5. 1961 Fleer Wilt Chamberlain (No. 8)
that San Antonio’s emphasis on excellent shooters had 6. 1969 Topps Lew Alcindor (No. 25)
suffered since the retirement of Robert Horry and Steve
7. 1961 Fleer Oscar Robertson (No. 36)
Kerr, and in Neal he saw an opportunity to recapture that.
8. 1961 Fleer Jerry West (No. 43)
PLAY NOW FOR FREE AT “He took advantage of the opportunity to play overseas
and kept building on it,” Buford says. “Not many perform 9. 1969 Topps John Havlicek (No. 20)

ESPN.COM/STREAK like he has.”


In 72 games this season, Neal, now 26, has averaged 9.6
10. 1961 Fleer Elgin Baylor (No. 3)
*According to Joe Orlando of PSA, the leading card authentication firm.

No purchase necessary. For complete official rules, go


to espn.com/streak. Open to legal residents 18 and
over of the 50 United States, DC, Canada, Mexico and
the United Kingdom. Void where prohibited by law.
37 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011

0418PNBAXX_LO.indd 38 4/1/11 7:32 PM


to cover income lost as the result
A Manchester, N.H., sportswriter

prostitution ring. He was looking


years in prison for running a
has been sentenced to 2½
next SOCCER

according To us

of a reduced salary.
The world
never say never
and controlling the game better.”
As a result, Agudelo may well land
a starting job for the U.S. at June’s
CONCACAF Gold Cup, the regional
championship that also serves as a
IS Juan agudelo aMeRICa’S FIRST gReaT STRIKeR? He’S oFF To a good STaRT. qualifying tournament for the 2013
By Doug McIntyre Confederations Cup. Meanwhile, the
Red Bulls are already fielding offers from
EvEn bEforE HE scorEd tHE tying July. “Now everyone expects him to be still has a lot to learn in one-on-one European clubs. “I have to see how I
goal for the U.S. during a high-profile great, and he’ll have to deal with it.” situations,” Backe says. “We tell him, Try to compare with the players over there,”
friendly against Argentina on March 26, Of course, Red Bulls coach Hans Backe hold onto the ball. Don’t just flick it away. Agudelo says. “When I feel ready, I’ll go.”
18-year-old Juan Agudelo seemed too is quick to provide a reality check. “Juan He’s becoming much more involved now MLS fans, catch him while you can.
good to be true.
Just a month after debuting with the
New York Red Bulls last October, the 6'1"
forward became the first graduate of a
Major League Soccer team academy to
start for the national squad. In the game,
an exhibition against South Africa, he
became the youngest player ever to score
for the U.S. And in the Red Bulls’ season
opener against the Seattle Sounders last
month, Agudelo split two defenders and
curled a shot past veteran keeper Kasey
Keller for his first MLS goal, effectively
stealing the spotlight from his legendary
teammate, Thierry Henry.
Heady stuff. “The last six months have
been pretty overwhelming,” Agudelo says.
“I’m really young for this.”
Not that he has to remind U.S. soccer
fans, who have seen unrealistic
expectations beset other prodigies.
Witness 21-year-old Freddy Adu, BIO BLAST
currently toiling in the obscurity of nAME Juan Agudelo
Turkey’s second level. But there’s reason AgE 18
HoMEtoWn Barnegat
to believe Agudelo will live up to the Township, N.J.
hype. Like fellow U.S. forward Jozy fAME cLAiMs Red Bulls starter;
youngest player ever to score
Altidore, he has the size to hold off the for the U.S. national team
toughest center backs. And Agudelo,
who learned the game in Colombia
before moving with his family to New
Jersey at age 8, already boasts sharper
technique and a defter touch than the
21-year-old Altidore. Best of all, he is
a ruthless finisher. “He puts so much
pressure on himself,” says Henry, the
French striker who befriended Agudelo
after arriving from FC Barcelona last

40 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011 Photograph by Jamie Kripke

0418PNEXT.lo.indd 40 3/30/11 8:36 PM


MLB

Young (left) is coming off


a 21-HR, 91-RBI season,
but Texas still signed
Beltre (right) to replace
him at third.

emotion is spot-on, but it’s so


much easier said than done.”
Not wanting to upset the
chemistry explains why the
Reds stood pat. “One guy’s
attitude can change the
equation,” says manager Dusty
Baker. “That can be a good
thing or a bad thing. It’s always
delicate.” Reds GM Walt
Jocketty focused instead on

can’t sit still


re-signing Johnny Cueto, Jay
Bruce and NL MVP Joey Votto,
his three young cornerstones, to
long-term extensions. Had there been an
affordable leadoff hitter on the
free-agent market, Jocketty says the
it would have been easy for the rangers to rest on their laurels Reds might have made a move, but that
after winning their first pennant. so how come they didn’t? player wasn’t out there, and the
By Jeff Bradley organization’s focus remained on what
it’s got rather than what it needs. “With
The popgun sound of 20 games of and played in its first-ever World Series, infielder Edgar Renteria. “To come back an average age around 28 years old,
catch echoes as usual around the Daniels signed a third baseman to with the same exact team, you’re kind of there wasn’t a good reason for us not to
Rangers’ complex. It’s one week before replace Young, the club’s all-time hits standing still and allowing guys to run by remain intact,” says Baker. “These guys
Opening Day, and if you’re looking for leader and a guy many consider the face you,” says Daniels. “We weren’t looking to have earned some patience from us.”

FROM LEFT: RON JENKINS/FORT WORTH STAR-TELEGRAM/GETTY IMAGES; JAKE ROTH/US PRESSWIRE
symbolism in the most routine of of the franchise. The Rangers also let DH turn over the whole club, but we did feel Of course, the division-rival Brewers
exercises, you can’t help but notice one Vladimir Guerrero (29 homers in 2010) like we had to keep things fresh.” added righthanders Zack Greinke (the
partnership that represents the team’s walk and replaced veteran catcher Daniels has spent much of the 2009 AL Cy Young winner) and Shaun
off-season: Michael Young, wearing a first Bengie Molina with free agent Yorvit off-season and spring training dealing Marcum via trades, and many experts
baseman’s glove, throwing to Adrian Torrealba and trade acquisition Mike with the fallout surrounding Young’s have tabbed them as division favorites,
Beltre, his replacement at third base. Napoli. While it’s hard to argue with switch. Among the loudest voices was so the Reds’ laissez-faire approach
The addition of Beltre and the move of these acquisitions—Beltre is an upgrade Young’s, who said he was “misled and could backfire.
Young from third to a utility role is all you over Young defensively, Torrealba is a manipulated” before asking for a trade Similarly, the A’s and Angels were
need to know about the Rangers’mind- good defender and Napoli will help so he could play every day. “We’re aggressive in their attempts to outgun
set this winter after losing Cliff Lee to the replace Vlad’s power—such turnover is coming off a season like we’ve never had the Rangers, with Oakland adding Josh
Phillies. “Not getting complacent was a uncommon for a team that has just before, so this is new ground for us to Willingham, David DeJesus and Hideki
theme we hit on quite a bit,” says GM Jon experienced success for the first time in cover,” says Daniels. “We had a great Matsui, and the Halos trading for Vernon
Daniels. “We think everyone else is going a while. A perfect example is the Reds, group of guys last season. Talented guys Wells, a three-time All-Star.
to get better, so we need to improve.” who last year won their division for the who had success together. And we were And while either of those teams could
To move the needle on a team that won first time since 1996, and whose big forced to make tough decisions. Saying topple Texas, at least the Rangers know
its division for the first time in 11 years move this winter was signing backup you should make those moves without complacency won’t be the reason.

42 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011

0418PMLB.lo.indd 42 3/31/11 9:28 PM


He pours.
D He mixes.
LOI A M
OK ON He scores.
OU D
T

BLACK HOLE SONS


some clubs can’t figure out certain positions. based on wins above
replacement, an all-encompassing metric from fangraphs.com that measures
value relative to available minor league talent, these are the biggest
nonpitching voids since 2006. for context, cardinals first basemen were
worth 41.7 war in that time. that pujols guy is good. -Jason catania

CaTCher 1.7 WAR firsT base 2.3 WAR seCond base 0.2 WAR shorTsTop 0.5 WAR Third base 3.3 WAR
Team Astros Team Orioles Team Indians Team Royals Team White Sox
2011 sTarTer 2011 sTarTer 2011 sTarTer 2011 sTarTer 2011 sTarTer
1 humberto Quintero 2 derrek Lee 3 orlando Cabrera 4 alcides escobar 5 brent morel

Jason Castro, a 2008 Baltimore hopes the With a career OBP of Acquired in the Joe Crede hit 30 HRs
first-rounder, was 35-year-old Lee .320, Cabrera could be Zack Greinke trade, in ’06, but his bad back
supposed to fill this (19 HRs, 80 RBIs in a slight upgrade over Escobar and his has left the Sox in a
void, but his torn ACL 2010) makes up for the likes of Josh Barfield 2010 0.6 WAR could lurch ever since. Morel
means Houston will last year’s disaster (.295) and Luis mean an extra half hit .320 in Triple-A, so
get more Quintero, a known as Garrett Valbuena (.289)—if he of a win this year for there’s hope on the
CLOCKWISE FROM TOP LEFT: MARK ZEROF/US PRESSWIRE; JOHN SLEEZER/KANSAS CITY STAR/MCT/GETTY IMAGES; G. FIUME/GETTY IMAGES; KYLE TERADA/US PRESSWIRE; KIM KLEMENT/US PRESSWIRE;

.232 career hitter. Atkins (-1.1 WAR). weren’t 36 years old. the Royals! South Side.

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2011 sTarTer 2011 sTarTer 2011 sTarTer 2011 sTarTer
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0418PMLB.lo.indd 43 3/31/11 9:28 PM


of it as taking a bit of the ballpark
at some Mariners games. “Think
trash will be handed out to fans
compost made from stadium
In a bid to reduce the team’s
environmental impact, free

home,” says a spokesman.


according To us
COLLEGE BASKETBALL

The world
feeling lucky?
More than a few coach-hUnGrY SchooLS hoPe
not to have their bUbbLe bUrSt.
By Elena Bergeron

This year’s postseason coaching search isn’t nearly so pretty as a carousel. It’s more
like that balloon dart throw on the carny midway. And while some prime jobs—
SMART
Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Arkansas—have already been filled, lots of athletic directors
are waiting in line to test their aim. Here’s some advice for them: Don’t let those giant
stuffed pandas—VCU’s Shaka Smart and Butler’s Brad Stevens—mess with your head.
Some smaller prizes will make you happy too, and they’re way easier to lug around.

missouri as an NBA assistant and was at Michigan


What It WantS State before heading west in 2007.
An established system coach who will
stay a while. After going on a big money What It WILL get
lark chasing Purdue’s Matt Painter, Tigers A chance to dream. Nets assistant Larry
AD Mike Alden figures to float Plan B Krystkowiak (a Montana native) is the
STEVENS
offers to Wichita State’s Gregg Marshall, top mention for this seat, ahead of
who’s looking pretty sharp with that former Alabama coach Mark Gottfried.
NIT championship, and Richmond’s But they’ll both have to wait until Stevens
Chris Mooney. has some time to mull. The Utes’ share of
the Pac-12’s TV deal gives them wiggle
What It WILL get room to overextend for their next hire,
Bang with their bucks. The Painter and Butler’s reigning genius would be
chase showed Missouri will spend to worth every penny.
contend. Ben Jacobson’s name keeps recent history suggests,” says one to keep him from bolting. But how far
popping up (hey, Tigers legend Norm nc sTaTe agent. The lure has three hooks: a they can close the gap between Smart’s
Stewart came to Mizzou from Northern What It WantS roster that loses only two rotation current base salary ($325K; he’ll make
Iowa), but if Smart and Stevens aren’t A do-over. This gig has been tagged the players (as long as top-notch frosh $500K with incentives for this dream

FROM TOP: RIch Sugg/KanSaS cITy STaR/McT/geTTy IMageS; KevIn c. cOx/geTTy IMageS
interested, Alden might instead pursue “worst best-paying job in America” forward C.J. Leslie returns), games that season) and his market value ($1-2M
Illinois’ Bruce Weber or Cincinnati’s because a lusty fan base won’t stand continually draw more than 13,000 per year, depending on the gig) remains
Mick Cronin. And don’t forget New down until the Triangle is equilateral, fans and those deep pockets. Miller is to be seen.
Mexico’s Steve Alford, who did time at and because AD Debbie Yow famously locked in at Arizona, but Barnes might
Southwest Missouri State in the 1990s. squared off against Gary Williams while take a look. Smart and Texas A&M’s What It WILL get
at Maryland. The Wolfpack’s wish list Mark Turgeon are also possibilities. The old Shaka Smart? Teague’s
uTah starts with Arizona’s Sean Miller and background is in marketing—he bulked
What It WantS Texas’ Rick Barnes (who grew up a State vcu up licensing and network deals at both
A fresh start. The Utes enter the fan). At least they’re aiming high. What It WantS North Carolina and Arizona State—so
spotlighted Pac-12 next year and are Shaka Smart, duh. AD Norwood Teague maybe he’ll hire a coach who reminds
looking for a name that upstages the What It WILL get has said he and the university’s everyone that VCU has been the
one they tossed. That will be tough. More than you’d think. “It’s still a president have already discussed Commonwealth’s best team for a while
Outgoing coach Jim Boylen had 13 years destination job, contrary to what ways to compensate Smart enough now. Jeff Capel is free.

44 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011

0418PCBBXX_LO.indd 44 4/1/11 10:16 PM


man to run a marathon. Gneiting,
Kelly Gneiting recently set a new
Guinness record as the heaviest

weighs 400 pounds. He finished


a three-time U.S. sumo champ,
COLLEGE FOOTBALL

according To us

the LA race in 9:48:52.


The world
impressed. I told our team a win is not
going to be easy.”
Paying for the two-week safari isn’t
easy either. This trip will cost an
estimated $358,000 for 65 Bulldogs
players and 10 coaches, with two
doctors, an athletic trainer and a
strength coach also traveling with the
team. Global Football is even paying for
Bill LeMonnier, who officiated at this
year’s BCS title game, to fly in and ref.
To cover some of the costs, Drake fans
donated during the Bulldogs 7–4
2010 season for every point (289) and
sack (33). As of late March, with the
help of player fund-raisers, the school
had hit $333,000. “This is exactly the
kind of trip, using the power of sports to
serve, that is at the core of our mission,”
says AD Sandy Hatfield Clubb. “My eyes

SNEAK PEAK
well up thinking about an African child
who will grow up to play American
football because of Drake.”
Drake had a normal spring practice
session, with its spring game slated for
April 23. But the contest the players
IN MAY, DRAKE UNIVERSITY’S FOOTBALL TEAM WILL CLIMB MOUNT KILIMANJARO … look forward to most will happen in a
AND TRY TO INTRODUCE FOOTBALL TO 15% OF THE WORLD ALONG THE WAY. revamped soccer stadium the name of
By LaRue Cook which few can pronounce (Sheikh Amri
Abeid Memorial), in front of 20,000
The whole Thing sTarTed abouT spent time in the jungle and in Panama Kilimanjaro for the end of a two-week new fans. “I have a hard time believing
16 months ago, in the middle of the City,” says Creighton. “But what all the mission. Before that, Drake players will this is going to happen,” says DT John
night, in Chris Creighton’s sleeping guys remembered most was farming in team up with members of a Mexican Sawhill. “But we’ve all bought our hiking
head. And on May 21, Creighton’s a remote village with the local people. It all-star football team (players are boots, so we’re ready.”
dream will be realized: The coach’s FCS was something you never forget.” selected from the CONADEIP, a Mexican Is Africa?
program, Drake, will play at the base of Whether you know it or not. In college-sports league) to hold clinics
Mount Kilimanjaro in the first organized January, after a particularly vivid dream, with 1,000 local youths. Then the two

60.5
American football game ever in Africa. Creighton cornered Global Football football teams (about 110 players
But let’s start at the beginning. In president Patrick Steenberge at a total) will construct an addition to the
2003, Creighton was at Division III coaching convention. “I have some- Kitaa Hope Orphanage, a Tanzanian
Wabash College and got involved with thing big—are you in?” Creighton asked charity that cares for children who’ve Buckeye-fans aren’t the only ones
Global Football, a Texas-based Steenberge. lost parents to HIV/AIDS. Then, finally, wondering which of the five other
organization that wants to export Creighton’s dream scene—him and Drake will take on the Mexican all-star OSU QBs (17 total completions)
will replace suspended Terrelle
American football around the world. his Drake players at the top of Mount team on a makeshift field at the foot Pryor, who accounted for 60.5% of
Global Football offered to coordinate Kilimanjaro—required a lot of planning. of Kilimanjaro. “This will be a legitimate the team’s offense in 2010. On his
way to practice on March 24, Pryor
off-season trips for Creighton and his Steenberge, who now has held games game,” says Creighton. “I went to watch
tweeted, “Gotta get my Offense
Wabash team to Austria and Panama, in 18 different nations, booked the the Mexican league’s national ready and find the starting QB!!”
and the latter was a life-changer. “We six-day, 19,298-foot ascent up championship game and came away

48 ESPN The Magazine April 18, 2011 Photograph by Kevin J. Miyazaki

0418PCF.lo.indd 48 3/30/11 7:56 PM


PREVIEW
52

0418INTROX_lo.indd 52 4/1/11 6:51 PM


During the first rOunD of last year’s NFL draft, a giddy 49ers fan wearing
a vintage Roger Craig jersey ignored the fact that his team hadn’t been to the playoffs in
seven seasons and shouted into a TV camera, “The NFL draft—it’s Christmas, baby!”
This year? It’s more like April Fools’ Day. Sure, there will still be about 250 players drafted
over three days, from April 28 to 30. As always, there will be shockers and climbers and
free-fallers. We can expect a trade or two and, of course, lots and lots of Jets fans. But the
escalating labor hostilities have shined a light on one ugly truth: Behind all the hype and
ratings, the draft is fundamentally flawed. Owners abhor giving guaranteed millions to
unproven talent; Colts president Bill Polian has called the system “broken” and “insane.”
Some veteran players, meanwhile, seem to hate everything else about the event. “The draft

has always struck me as bizarre, bordering on ridiculous,” says Browns linebacker Scott
Fujita, a member of the NFLPA executive committee. “It’s probably the most un-American
thing about the NFL: Telling a person where he has to go work.”
CAN’T GET ENOUGH
Since March 11, when the NFLPA decertified and a group of players sued the owners to
DRAFT COVERAGE?
stop an impending lockout, there have been no official negotiations about how to divide the
Well, good, because this preview is only
NFL’s $9 billion annual revenue. Barring a miracle, the 2011 draft will be the first real casualty the beginning of what ESPN has to offer.
of the crisis, with fans and rookies treated like the children in an ugly divorce. Without free > ESPN.com presents mock drafts from
Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay, inside
agency, execs in war rooms will have to use their picks to address immediate roster needs scoops from John Clayton, profiles of all
the top prospects and, of course, Kiper’s
instead of taking chances on guys with exciting upside. Draftees can’t sign contracts or Big Board. Once the draft kicks off,
talk with their coaches or use team facilities to practice. And with all the acrimony casting a DraftTracker will provide pick-by-pick
data in real time, plus you’ll get team
pall over the event, we are likely to be deprived of those magical, unscripted moments that reviews from our eight division bloggers,
video breakdowns of every first-rounder,
take place under the lights, like when 295-pound defensive tackle Gerald McCoy wept before and blow-by-blow analysis by Scouts Inc.
embracing Roger Goodell in the tenderest of bear hugs last year. > ESPN TV’s live coverage of the draft
begins on Thursday, April 28, at 8 p.m.,
NFL fans will tolerate just about anything—PSLs, player arrests, years of losing.
continues the next day at 6 p.m. and
But take away their regularly scheduled escapism programming, and things will get ugly hits the homestretch Saturday at noon.
The broadcast will be hosted by Chris
fast, for both sides. “For whatever reason, there’s something sacred about the draft,” Fujita Berman and Trey Wingo, and will feature
says, “and fans don’t want it disturbed.” analysis from Kiper and Jon Gruden.
> ESPN Radio’s live draft show will
The good news? Maybe, just maybe, the backlash after the event will bring the two be hosted by Freddie Coleman, John
warring parties to the table again, to finally find a peaceful resolution. And in time, we may Clayton and Tim Hasselbeck, with
analysis of each first-rounder from Kiper
look back at this year’s draft as one of the best yet. (April 28, 7 p.m. ET; April 29, 6 p.m. ET).

52

0418INTROX_lo.indd 53 4/1/11 6:51 PM


per
a matter oF

spec
tive
A YEAR AGO, JaKe LoCKer WAS PROJECTED AS THE TOP PiCk iN
THE DRAFT. NOW, HE COulD END uP A THiRD-ROuNDER. WElCOmE
TO THE WilDlY SubJECTivE WORlD OF qb EvAluATiON.
bY SETH WiCkERSHAm
PHOTOGRAPH BY
aLan CLarKe

54

0418LOCKER_lo.indd 54 4/1/11 10:32 PM


55

0418LOCKER_lo.indd 55 4/1/11 10:32 PM


nFL DraFt PREVIEW

Jake Locker
is accustomed to being first. Among the half-
dozen NFL prospects he’s training with on a
mid-February morning in Irvine, Calif., the
former University of Washington quarterback
Locker’s stock
is first to stretch, first to run a 40-yard dash,
fell hard in
first to spin around the three-cone drill. A few September after
hours later, the 22-year-old, with his Marine he completed
just 20% of his
buzz cut and slugger’s arms, is first to arrive at
passes against
Oakley headquarters, a fortress atop a Southern Nebraska, the
California hill, for a tour of the sunglasses third-worst
performance by
company arranged by the prospects’ agents. As
an FBS QB
the players wait in the building’s lobby, someone since 2004.
notices the cathedral-like ceiling and asks, “How
high is that?”
Locker answers first: “I’d say it’s about 30
yards—60 feet.”
Scotty McKnight, a former Colorado receiver
who might not be drafted, turns his head, drops the 56-21 loss. The perception that he could of college scouting (one each from the AFC and
his eyebrows and grins. McKnight loves giving become a franchise quarterback was effectively the NFC) and watched as each broke down
people a hard time, and his fellow prospect has destroyed. His decision-making, footwork and Locker’s best game from last season: a 35-34
provided a rare opening. “Thirty yards is 90 instincts—once seen as wonderfully raw— double-overtime win over Oregon State in
feet,” he says. suddenly became hopeless liabilities. Teams which he completed 21 of 35 passes for 286 yards
“Uh, I didn’t take math,” says Locker, who now grade Locker anywhere from a late first- and five touchdowns. These experts identified a
earned his degree in history. to mid-third-rounder, far behind this year’s variety of flaws, and their evaluations are critical:
This time last year, the thought of the quarter- hottest passers, Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert and Overvaluing a QB could cost their team millions
back’s practicing with and taking crap from a Auburn’s Cam Newton. of dollars and set the organization back years in
grab bag of players who may not be drafted But Locker isn’t really to blame for this down- terms of development. So scouts tend to view
would have been absurd. Scouts saw his thrilling ward spiral. He’s a victim of a very subjective perceived weaknesses in absolute terms,
game (powerful arm, 4.5 40) and perfect pedigree science: quarterback evaluation, which often assuming a QB’s flaws in college always carry
(son of a youth football coach, so athletically reveals as much about the evaluators as it does over to the NFL—and they cover their butts by
gifted that he was a two-time MLB draft pick) about their subject. Because while scouts analyze telling their bosses as much. Which brings us
back to Locker. Hell-bent on proving he can
overcome any perceived shortcomings, he has

teams tend to divide


armed himself with a brain specialist and a
QB coach in preparation for his NFL career.
character into two categories: leadership and We visited with them, too.

football. as a leader, locker earns an easy a,

SET DESIGN BY ROBERT DELAHANTY; ELAINE THOMPSON/AP IMAGES


THE AFC scout’s beliefs are stashed in a spiral
but his football character merits only a c. notebook, scribbled in blue and red ink. He
reads aloud a particularly damning note: Locker
identifies defenses quicker outside the pocket
and declared him the top pick in the 2010 draft—a every trait imaginable, from leadership to arm than in it. Armed with the universal NFL
spot that would have earned him a guaranteed strength, final grades are based on an individual’s film watcher’s tool kit—coffee, clicker and
$50 million. But Locker shocked scouts by return- beliefs about what matters most. That’s why Copenhagen—the expert turns to a TV. “I’ll show
ing to Seattle for his senior year, then failed to three football men can watch the same player you what I mean,” he says.
meet the high expectations that everyone had during the same game, sometimes the same It’s the first quarter. On first down from the
set for him. It didn’t take long for things to go throw, and derive three different assessments. Oregon State 16-yard line, Locker bootlegs right.
bad. In a huge September showdown against To prove it, The Magazine visited an offensive “Not a lot of guys can do this,” the scout says as
Nebraska, Locker completed just four passes in coordinator for an NFC team and two directors he clicks to the end zone angle to get a better

54

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nFL DraFt PREVIEW
> nFL DraFt ConFIDentIaL
look. Nearly out of bounds, Locker scans his BY DRAFT DAY, Potential picks say they will have been lent an average of $23,110. But we’ve
HOW MUCH heard about varying levels of financial support. Nine players say they won’t
three options and drills a perfect pass over a MONEY WILL YOUR receive a single dollar from their agent. Twelve others say they’ll have pocketed
leaping linebacker to receiver Jermaine Kearse, AGENT HAVE $30,000 or more. “For training, housing and food,” says one defender who
FRONTED YOU? predicts he’ll end up borrowing $100,000. “I’ll pay it all back. But the coolest
who catches the ball in the end zone. But in the thing is, it’s a no-interest loan.”
Download scanner at
third quarter, when Locker fires a six-yarder to http://gettag.mobi
(see page 10 for details)
Kearse, the scout stares at the screen and shakes
his head. “Look at the coach on the sideline,” he
says, pointing to Huskies headman Steve
Sarkisian, who has dropped his arms in apparent and beta waves so he can process defenses with, On first down from the Beavers’ 12-yard line,
frustration. “Jake must have screwed up.” Hale says, “a calm, intense focus.” Locker drops back, climbs the pocket, and fires high
Indeed he has. The scout rewinds the film, Five minutes in, Hale narrows the tunnel of wideout D’Andre Goodwin, who’s blanketed near
which shows Oregon State breaking the huddle walls and increases the number of obstacles. As the pylon. It seems like a smart throwaway, but the
into man coverage. But just before the snap, the Locker collides with rocks, bumping around like coach isn’t buying. “Locker isn’t in sync with his
Beavers shift to Cover 2. Sarkisian had called the he’s learning to parallel park, his beta waves rise, receivers,” he says, as he rewinds the film. When
perfect routes for this defense: Kearse hooking reflecting frustration. After eight minutes, Hale Locker ends his drop, Goodwin is briefly open. That
up and wideout Jordan Polk running deep. tightens the course to its toughest level, filling window closes when Locker pushes in the pocket
Locker’s read should be Beavers corner James the screen with more rocks, dips and sharp twice, taking two little hops, and delays the throw. A
Dockery. If he covers short, throw deep; if he turns. Locker locks in: He occasionally hits the few plays later, he again pushes twice and nearly
covers deep, throw short. Dockery covers short, obstacles but corrects quickly. His red and blue collides with an offensive lineman. Unable to step
and Polk is open deep, but Locker into the throw, he lets the ball sail. Now the
throws short. “He didn’t recognize coordinator zeroes in on the QB’s habitual
the coverage,” the scout says. “In the pushes like a politico watching polls. The
pocket, he doesn’t process quickly.”
It’s a curable condition—if a
quarterback has a patient coach, a
$15.7 MILLION movements not only contribute to Locker’s
inaccuracy, scouts’ biggest criticism, but
also suggest that, as the coach says, “he’s a
A slide down the draft board
more patient owner and years of mechanical quarterback.”
would cost Jake Locker quite
reps in the same system. Says the That’s code for a learned signal-
a pretty penny. Last year,
scout: Too many ifs to choose caller, not an instinctual one. Learned
No. 1 pick Sam Bradford
Locker before the second round. and his fellow first- quarterbacks run plays to perfection if
rounders averaged everything goes as planned. Instinctual
DONNIE HALE believes his machine $16.5 million in guaranteed ones flip broken plays into big ones.
can help Locker read defenses more money. Their third-round “A quarterback’s instincts are like a
quickly. Hale is a technician for brethren, meanwhile, took receiver’s speed,” the coach says. “You
Neurotopia, a company dedicated home $765,000, a difference can develop it, but you can’t coach it.”
to improving athletes’ mental per- of $15.7M. So while he considers Locker to be an
formance by use of brain-training “excellent prospect,” he pegs him as
exercises. Pro baseball and football a third-rounder because “his habits
players hire Hale to help with a might be too hard to break.”
variety of processes, from thinking quicker to lines start to rise and fall together. As he crosses
sleeping sounder. On a February morning at the finish line at the end of today’s 20-minute KEN O’BrIEN believes bad habits can be fixed.
Velocity, a Southern California gym, he squeezes a session—the second of 20 he’ll have before the The former Jets QB works with Locker for 90
blob of clear goop onto his finger and rubs it onto draft—he raises his hands, signaling touchdown. minutes each day starting at 9 a.m. A member of
Locker’s head before planting a small electric Most people feel drained after completing the the famed Class of 1983, in which six quarterbacks
suction cup on the spot. Locker sits in a recliner, game. Not Locker. “I’m relaxed,” he says. were drafted in the first round, O’Brien, unlike a lot
classical piano music softly playing in his Beats of scouts and coaches, believes many signal-callers
by Dr. Dre high-performance headphones, with AT A rEsTAurANT near his team’s facility, the naturally improve in the pros. Quarterbacking
wires running from his head to a small processor offensive coordinator launches the Washington- is a skill that can be learned. Brady upped his
connected to Hale’s computer. Locker faces a TV Oregon State game on a laptop. He watches accuracy. Peyton learned to throw on the run.
screen that displays video-game-like images of a Locker miss the Cover 2 and shrugs. Only a few Aaron Rodgers became a quicker thinker. So
spaceship navigating tunnels; he’ll guide the vessel quarterbacks—Peyton, Brady, Brees—make that O’Brien has Locker practicing three-step drops,
by thinking about it. read. “Plus,” he says, “I love Locker’s release.” then five-step drops. He works on play-action
Hale controls the level of difficulty of the exer- The coordinator always analyzes a quarter- drops, drops with a push, drops with two pushes,
cise, and he starts with wide, easy-to-navigate back’s release first. He likes a short, compact quick drops, deep drops. In his 10th year tutoring
tunnels. Charting on the technician’s laptop are lash; Locker’s motion is suitably smooth and QBs, O’Brien pushes his student, but not too hard.
JEFF ZELEVANSKY/GETTY IMAGES

Locker’s brain waves, blue and red lines rising clean. Next, he considers height. The best QBs, After all, Locker has had two days off since
and falling like stocks. Alpha waves, the blue he says, range from 6'2" to 6'5"; Locker slides in Washington’s season ended in December. “Overkill
line, are produced by the brain when, say, you’re at 6'2¾". Then, he evaluates instinct: that inscru- can set in,” O’Brien says.
relaxing in your backyard. Beta waves, the red table ability to focus downfield yet remain Back in ’83, O’Brien prepped for the draft by
line, are produced when you’re engaged in an acutely aware of the pass rush. “That’s the most spending mornings in class and afternoons
activity like driving. Locker’s goal: sync his alpha important trait,” he says. throwing with his UC Davis teammates. The

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nFL DraFt PREVIEW

combine was in its infancy then, hardly the Oregon State game. Unlike the other evaluators, his arm and decided to “not get freaked out over
showcase it is now. NFL coaches might drop by he sees positives. On quick thinking: After Locker where I’m drafted.”
and talk to the players well into the night, completes a deep comeback, the scout says, “See Now Locker is in the strange position of
learning what made them tick. Today, there’s how the ball comes out before the receiver cuts? defending himself against the perception that
less access and even less optimism. QBs speed- That’s quick thinking.” On pushing into pressure: he cost himself the No. 1 slot. He’s weathered
date teams in 15-minute interviews at the Yes, Locker does it, but his arm often saves him. criticism of his play by accepting responsibility,
combine, where flaws tend to be regarded in In the second quarter, for instance, he pushes even when other factors, such as a so-so
finite terms. Anyone whose stock has dropped, into a defensive tackle, but flicks the ball 50 yards receiving corps, were often at fault. Not only
Locker says, “would be lying if they told you for six. On football leadership: The Huskies’ did he play most of the season with a broken
they didn’t occasionally question themselves.” offense often looks out of sorts because Locker rib and bruised quad, he also rebounded from
O’Brien wants his charge to remember that is dodging disasters caused by a questionable the loss to Nebraska by beating the Huskers in
great players find ways to be great at the O-line. “After weeks of getting your ass kicked,” the Holiday Bowl. He’s convinced he’s better
next level. So a few nights a week, he sends says the scout, “you don’t want to sit back there.” prepared for having put up good numbers in a
Locker a supportive text. After one workout,
O’Brien tapped: “I like where you’re at. Keep
spinning it.” In his prefurnished, temporary locker knew he wasn’t ready last year. so
two-bedroom apartment in Irvine, Locker he took out a lloyd’s of london policy on his
smiled at his buzzing BlackBerry and thought,
arm and decided to “not get freaked out
over where i’m drafted.”
Hell, yeah. I like where I’m at too.

THE NFC personnel director pulls Locker’s


scouting reports off his team’s secret intranet
pro-style offense rather than great numbers in
the spread, the system used by Newton and
Gabbert. And just because he didn’t turn pro
when his stock was highest doesn’t mean he
won’t be a better quarterback. “Success will
come quicker because I played my senior year,”
he says. “The smart evaluators can see that.”
Most do. On the heels of Locker’s strong
combine and further examination of all of
his game performances, The Magazine’s three
Building off his experts admit they’d consider taking him in the
success in the first round despite having graded him lower.
Holiday Bowl,
Because he’s talented, and franchise QBs are so
Locker finished
fourth or better rare, they might be willing to roll the dice on the
in every drill at flash of brilliance that seduced them in the first
the combine.
place. Truth is, scouts usually follow a pendulum
swing of emotions: They fall hard for a player at
first, then pick him apart before circling back to
their first instinct. Locker’s case is no exception.
site. A few notes stand out. He likes the size of Still, the personnel director calls Locker an Says the offensive coordinator, “He’s too talented
the quarterback’s hands: 97/8". Plenty meaty. “improving quarterback” who “carried his team” to slip far.”
“Good for playing in cold weather,” he says. but “needs some work.” In other words, he’s a
But he worries about the discrepancy in the second-rounder. Thing is, Locker showed the ON A mOrNINg just days before the combine,
prospect’s character grades. Teams tend to same traits as a junior, when experts projected Locker—head down, elbows at knees, T-shirt
divide character into two categories: leadership him No. 1. “Perceptions changed,” says the scout. soaked—gasps for air. He’s holding both ends of a
and football. As a leader, Locker earns an easy A. “He had buzz, but nobody had studied him.” thick, heavy rope that’s wrapped around a pole 20

FROM LEFT: KIRBY LEE/US PRESSWIRE; JOE ROBBINS/GETTY IMAGES


After the Huskies won only four games his feet away. A clock reads 17 seconds, which means
freshman year, he organized sprints each off- LOCKEr KNEW he wasn’t ready last year. that he is almost due for another rep of Velocity’s
season morning at 6 o’clock. Throughout college, He had played running back in youth ball before toughest exercise: slapping the rope to the floor in
he visited hospitals, befriended three terminally moving to quarterback at Ferndale High to run the 20-second increments. He lifts the rope and slams
ill kids and spoke at their funerals. Then as a wing-T. His first two years at Washington, he was it to the turf, right and left, like he’s wrestling a boa.
senior, he led the Huskies to their first bowl win an option quarterback. By the end of his junior His cheeks redden, his eyebrows arc and drop like
since 2001. Says Sarkisian, “He set the standard.” year, he had run Sarkisian’s pro-style offense for a guitarist’s during a solo, and his tongue flops out
Maybe, but Locker’s football character merits just one season. But before making the decision to of a slight grin. A few players drop their dumbbells
only a C. Too often, this team’s scouts report, he stay in school, he studied 2009’s top signal-callers. to watch. After all, this is a power drill, designed for
struggled to manage his offense and the game. Most had played their senior year, and only offensive linemen. Today, nobody dared touch it.
The question is why. So, clicker in hand, the scout Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers were top-10 Locker went first. Ω
kicks his feet onto his desk and turns on the picks. So he took out a Lloyd’s of London policy on HOW WILL THE LOCKOUT AFFECT ROOKIES LIKE LOCKER? TURN THE PAGE TO FIND OUT.

54

0418LOCKER_lo.indd 60 4/1/11 10:32 PM


nFL DraFt PREVIEW

Max
oCKo

Ut
Up
Date

proteCtIon
AS A lENGTHY lOCkOuT lOOmS, ROOkiES ARE FiGuRiNG OuT
WAYS TO SAFEGuARD THEiR FuTuRES. bY JEFFRi CHADiHA

Talk about bad timing. Just when prospects like


Jake Locker are about to win their dream jobs, an
extended lockout could limit their access to the tools
they need to succeed. No playbooks. No contact with
coaches. No game film provided by the team. Not
even a facility to call home. But while players are
being shut out, these resourceful rookies won’t be
shut down. Here’s how some plan to cope.
..
s.

pL
Is

a
m

rooKIe Camp get to Know the new DIgs n


B
ey

Clubs usually host rookies for a three-day To make sure he’s comfortable with the
th

session within two weeks of the draft. They team that drafts him, QB Ryan Mallett
IF

meet coaches and get their playbooks, while (Arkansas) says he’ll “watch whatever game
also dealing with matters like housing and footage I can find.” Fellow QB hopeful
media training. “There are so many little Christian Ponder (Florida State) will take
things that get settled then,” says an AFC his prep a step further. “I’m moving to
quarterbacks coach. “Pushing everything the city where I’m drafted as soon as
into one condensed period later may possible,” he says. “Then I’ll find some
overwhelm a lot of guys.” receivers and start throwing.”

organIzeD team aCtIvItIes stay CompetItIve

FROM TOP: SAM SHARPE/US PRESSWIRE; RICHEY MILLER/CSM/LANDOV; DAVID J. GRIFFIN/ICON SMI
During the off-season, rookies participate During a lockout, it helps to stick together.
in more than a dozen OTA sessions and at “All of our rookies are going to a training facility
least one full minicamp. Quarterbacks and after the draft,” says Tom Condon, who reps
receivers work on timing, linemen and top prospects such as QB Blaine Gabbert
linebackers hone their technique, and (Missouri), wideout A.J. Green (Georgia) and
coaches start dissecting the playbook. In defensive end J.J. Watt (Wisconsin). “They’ll do
short, it’s a chance for rookies to learn about movement drills and basically the same things
the intensity of the NFL. they did before the draft.”

traInIng Camp Keep CaLm anD Carry on


Veterans can crash prep for a season in two While players acknowledge that the current
weeks, but a lockout that lasts until Aug. 15 or situation is tough to prepare for, projected
later kills the chance for most rookies to first-rounders like defensive ends Cameron
contribute immediately. “They’ll have Heyward (Ohio State) and Da’Quan Bowers
to be very patient and avoid getting (Clemson) are taking a pragmatic approach.
frustrated,” says Cleveland “I know I have to keep myself busy, break down
cornerback and nine-year vet my game tapes and keep up my conditioning,”
Sheldon Brown. “They’ll be behind Heyward says. Adds Bowers, “Whenever the
the eight ball from the start.” teams call, we’ll be there, ready to work.”

0418LOCKER_lo.indd 62 4/1/11 10:32 PM


HEDLINE

0418WONDER_lo.indd 64 4/1/11 9:17 PM


Top NFL
quarterbacks
don’t need
smarts. They
need instincts—
the kind that
comes with lots The ball is snapped. The quarterback drops
back, immediately surrounded by a chorus of

of practice. But grunts and groans, the sounds of linemen collid-


ing. The play has just begun, but the pocket is
already collapsing around him. He must focus

why are some his eyes downfield on his receivers and know
where they’re going while also reading the
defense. Is that cornerback blitzing or dropping

guys better at back? When will the safety leave the middle?
The QB has fewer than three seconds to make

getting better? sense of this mess. If he hesitates, even for a


split second, he’ll get sacked.
No other team sport is so dependent on the
judgment of a single player, which is why NFL
scouts and coaches take the decision-making
skills of quarterbacks very seriously. Since the
early 1970s, when Cowboys coach Tom Landry
began using the Wonderlic intelligence test to
evaluate potential Dallas players, the league has
included it at the annual scouting combine, to

RTEU
assess every player entering the draft. Basically
a short version of an IQ test, the Wonderlic is
12 minutes long and consists of 50 questions,
which get progressively harder (see page 68). The
underlying assumption is that players with
high scores (read: smarter) will make better
decisions in the pocket. If a quarterback can
T R U E solve pre-algebra problems quickly, then he’ll be
more likely to find his man while getting blitzed.
At first, this seems like a logical assumption.
Just think of all the cognitive skills required to
become a successful QB. He needs to memorize
hundreds of offensive plays and dozens of

I TGR
defensive formations. He has to study game
tape. And, in many instances, quarterbacks are
responsible for changing the play at the line of

BY JONAH LEHRER
ILLUSTRATION BY BRIAN STAUFFER

G R I T

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0418WONDER_lo.indd 65 4/1/11 9:17 PM


NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

scrimmage. This helps explain why NFL teams period of time. (Their share prices are displayed big lineman. That ability might not depend on
start to get nervous whenever the Wonderlic on a ticker at the bottom of a TV screen.) If some- real IQ, but it sure takes a lot of football IQ.”
scores of a QB in the draft fall below 24, the unof- body asks you which stocks performed best, How QBs develop a more effective emotional
ficial average for the position. (In comparison, you’ll probably be unable to give a good answer; brain is the question teams should be asking.
the average score for computer programmers is there’s just way too much financial data to keep The simple answer: work. Expertise requires lots
29 while janitors score 15, a point below running track of. But if you’re asked which stocks trigger of effort and repetition. K. Anders Ericsson, a
backs.) Scouts believe a quarterback who isn’t the best feelings—now it’s your emotional brain psychologist at Florida State, studies expertise.
smart, at least by this measure, won’t be able to that’s being quizzed—you’ll suddenly be able to Ericsson acknowledges the role of genetic gifts
handle the mental rigors of the game. identify the top stocks. According to Tilmann (physical and mental skills are not distributed
There’s only one problem with this way of Betsch, the psychologist who performed this equally at birth), but he believes that the over-
thinking: It’s completely wrong. Many of the experiment, your emotions will “reveal a whelming majority of expertise is earned. “There
most successful quarterbacks in NFL history remarkable degree of sensitivity” to the actual is virtually no evidence that expertise is due to
reportedly had subpar Wonderlic results. performance of the shares. The investments genetic or innate factors,” Ericsson says. “Rather,
Donovan McNabb scored a 14 and Brett Favre a that rose in value will be associated with the it strongly suggests that expertise requires huge
22, while Randall Cunningham, Dan Marino and most positive emotions, while those that fell will amounts of effort and practice.” This is because
Terry Bradshaw each scored 15. What’s more, trigger a vague sense of unease. it takes time to train our feelings, to embed
several QBs who had unusually high marks— This exercise captures why it’s so important those useful patterns into the brain. Before a
guys like Alex Smith and Matt Leinart, who for quarterbacks to rely on their feelings and not quarterback can find the open man, parsing
scored 40 and 35, and were top-10 picks in their their analytical intelligence. Open targets are the defense in a glance, he must spend years
respective drafts—have struggled in the NFL, associated with the most positive emotions, just studying cornerbacks and crossing routes. It
largely because they make poor decisions on like those upward-trending stocks. “QBs are looks easy only because he’s worked so hard.
the field. “People obsess over the stuff they can tested on every single pass play,” Hasselbeck “I think the willingness to put in the hours is
measure,” says former NFL quarterback and says. “To be good at the position, you’ve got to the most important thing for succeeding in
current ESPN analyst Tim Hasselbeck know the answer before you even understand the NFL,” says Gil Brandt, former Cowboys vice
(Wonderlic score: 23). “We spend all this time the question. You’ve got to be able to glance at a president of player personnel and current draft
talking about Wonderlic scores and results defense and recognize what’s going on. And analyst for nfl.com. “When you look at the best
from the combine, but those numbers miss you’ve got to be able to do that when the left QBs—guys like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady,
most of what’s going on.” tackle gets beat and you’re running away from a Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees—what you see is
Consider a recent study by economists David
Berri and Rob Simmons. While they found that
Wonderlic scores play a large role in determining Wonderlic’s Wide spectrum
when QBs are selected in the draft—the only

CLOCKWISE FROM TOP RIGHT: TIM UMPHREy/GETTy IMaGES; BILL NICHOLS/aP IMaGES; RONaLD C. MODRa/SPORTS IMaGERy/GETTy IMaGES; JOE ROBBINS/GETTy
equally important variables are height and the
40-yard dash—the metric proved all but useless Alex SmitH
in predicting performance. The only correlation
40
the researchers could find suggested that higher eli mAnning
39
Wonderlic scores actually led to slightly worse
QB performance, at least during rookie years. In
other words, intelligence (or, rather, measured

IMaGES; RONaLD C. MODRa/SPORTS IMaGERy/GETTy IMaGES; SCOTT BOEHM/GETTy IMaGES; NICK LaHaM/GETTy IMaGES
intelligence), which has long been viewed as a mAtt leinArt
prerequisite for playing QB, would seem to be a
35
disadvantage for some guys. Although it’s true brett FAvre
that signal-callers must grapple with staggering
22
amounts of complexity, they don’t make sense of
questions on an intelligence test the same way
they make sense of the football field. The
Wonderlic measures a specific kind of thought
process, but the best QBs can’t think like that in
the pocket. There isn’t time.
So how, then, do they make their decisions? vince Young DAn mArino
15 15
Turns out, every pass play is a pure demonstra-
tion of human feeling. Scientists have in recent
years discovered that emotions, which are often
dismissed as primitive and unreliable, can in fact
reflect a vast amount of information processing.
In many instances, our feelings are capable of
responding to things we’re not even aware of,
DonovAn mcnAbb
noticing details we don’t register on a conscious 14
level. Let’s say you’re given information about
how 20 different stocks have performed over a

66

0418WONDER_lo.indd 66 4/1/11 9:17 PM


Special advertiSement
NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

that they work harder than anyone else. Their highly selective, about 5% of cadets drop out
work ethic is what makes them great.” after the first summer of training, known as
In recent years, Ericsson has become known Beast Barracks. The Army has long searched for
for his calculation that true expertise in various the variables that predict which cadets will
fields, from QBs to cello players, requires about graduate, but it wasn’t until Duckworth tested
10,000 hours of what he calls “deliberate them using a short questionnaire—consisting of
practice.” And deliberate practice is not fun. statements such as “Setbacks don’t discourage
It’s not casual scrimmages or a game of catch in me” or “I am diligent”—that the Army found a
the backyard. Instead, it’s a disciplined attempt measurement that actually worked. Duckworth
to improve specific skills. For a quarterback, this has since repeated the survey with subsequent
Check out this issue’s might involve spending the weekend throwing West Point classes, and the results are always
hundreds of footballs through an old car tire the same: The cadets who graduate are the ones
NFL Draft Confidential, while moving to the left or working for months with grit.
look for the Tags and on a few steps of footwork. In a new paper, Duckworth and Ericsson
Consider Peyton and Eli Manning. It would be demonstrate that grit doesn’t only keep people
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scored 39 on the Wonderlic, Peyton a 28.) In
reality, according to Ericsson’s model of expertise, more time studying alone and memorizing
the Mannings have excelled in the pros because words with the help of note cards performed
they began throwing the football as toddlers, much better than kids who were quizzed by
Scan to enter. racking up hours of deliberate practice at an age friends or engaged in leisure reading. Duckworth
Get the free mobile app at when most kids haven’t even touched a pigskin. and Ericsson also found that levels of grit deter-
http://gettag.mobi It also didn’t hurt that their father, Archie mined how much the spellers were willing to
Manning, was a former NFL passer who provided practice. Grittier kids were able to engage in the
them with invaluable instruction. Peyton and most useful kinds of self-improvement, which is
Eli weren’t born with the ability to read defenses why they performed at a higher level. Woody
and throw a perfect spiral. Those “instincts” Allen famously declared, “Eighty percent of suc-
come only from a lifetime of training. cess is showing up.” And grit is what allows you
So, if talent comes from intuition, and reliable to show up, again and again and again.
intuition comes from practice, then the trait “I’d bet that there isn’t a single highly success-
that teams should really be measuring is how ful person who hasn’t depended on grit,” says
recruits practice. And the question they should Duckworth. “Nobody is talented enough to not
be asking is, Why are some quarterbacks so have to work hard, and that’s what grit allows
much better at getting better? you to do. It lets you take advantage of your
This notion of practice led Ericsson to collabo- potential.” For successful quarterbacks, grit is
rate with Angela Duckworth, a psychologist at what allows them to watch hours of game
Sweepstakes Rules.
N O P U R C H A S E N E C E S S A RY. S e e o f f i c i a l r u l e s a t
the University of Pennsylvania. Duckworth is tape on Monday mornings. It lets them remain
http://www.nellymoser.com/ESPN/sweepstakes/rules.html best known for her work on grit, a character in the weight room after everyone else has gone
for entry and prize details. You may enter the sweepstakes trait that allows people to persist in the face of home. It’s why they can practice the right way,
from your PC at http://bit.ly/espn_sweeps. Void where
prohibited. Open and offered only to legal residents of
difficulty. A few years ago, she was commis- not just the easy way. “In order to become a
the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia who are sioned by the Army to measure the grittiness of professional athlete, you need a certain kind of
at least 18 years of age at the date of entry. Sweepstakes cadets at West Point. Although the academy is obsessiveness,” Duckworth says. “You’ve got to
begins at 10:00 a.m. ET time on March 23, 2011, and
ends at 5:00 p.m. ET time on May 21, 2011.

0418WONDER_lo.indd 68 4/1/11 9:17 PM


SPECIAL ADVERTISEMENT

NFL DRAFT PREVIEW


> NFL DRAFT CONFIDENTIAL
WHAT’S Almost one in three (30%) pick the 40-yard dash, but most do so grudgingly. Turns
THE MOST out, many of them think it shouldn’t be. Says one first-round lock: “The game is
IMPORTANT 11-on-11, not who sprints the fastest.” When we ask a follow-up—WHAT’S THE
TEST AT THE MOST USELESS COMBINE TEST?—30.8% choose the Wonderlic. “It’s a brainteaser,”
COMBINE? says one top pass-rusher. “And I don’t remember a time that a brainteaser helped
me sack the quarterback.”
download scanner at
http://gettag.mobi
(see page 10 for details)

devote your life to the development of this very teams have been looking at all the wrong things,”
narrow expertise. It shouldn’t be surprising that Brandt says. “Just because you can measure it WATCH AS AN ARMY
this takes lots of grit.” doesn’t mean it matters.”
The problem for the NFL is that instead of Measuring grit does matter, but it’s not easy. COMBATIVES EXPERT
measuring grit, teams still subscribe to an anti-
quated model of talent and expertise in which
Grit can’t be evaluated in a single afternoon; by
definition, it’s a metric of personality that
HOLDS HIS OWN WITH
innate gifts are presumed to matter the most. involves performance over long periods of time. AN MMA FIGHTER.
The scouting combine requires players entering People don’t reveal grit at the combine; they
the draft to perform a number of short physical show it when no one else is around. “What
coaches need is a way to test how players will
perform over the entire season,” Duckworth
fEElING says. “Do they have what it takes to make them-
selves better? Will they benefit from criticism
and feedback? If I were a coach, those are the
the Grit scale measures questions I would care about.”
perseverance for
long-term goals.

I HAvE ACHIEvEd A GOAl


THAT TOOK YEARS Of WORK.
MY INTERESTS CHANGE
Very much like me
fROM YEAR TO YEAR.
Mostly like me
Very much like me
Somewhat like me
Mostly like me
Not much like me
Somewhat like me
Not like me at all
Not much like me
Not like me at all
So where is all this heading? How will grit
become a bigger part of the scouting equation?
and mental tasks (40-yard dash, Wonderlic, The first step is to finally acknowledge that
three-cone drill, bench-press reps, vertical jump) maximal tests aren’t effective. “I really see the
referred to by psychologists as “maximal Wonderlic as a reading test,” says former NFL
measurements,” since they measure people who executive Michael Lombardi, now with the
are highly motivated to perform for short bursts NFL Network. “Until we get a better test, teams
of time. But to understand why those maximal are just going to have to evaluate players the old- I’VE GOT SKILLS shows
tests at the combine don’t predict performance fashioned way, by watching them play in actual why Army training is like
in the pros, we must return to the nature of games. It takes good instincts to be a QB. Maybe nothing else in the world.
expertise. As Ericsson and Duckworth demon- it takes good instincts to find one, too.” Watch as U.S. Army soldiers
strate, the most important kind of talent, Hasselbeck suggests that teams pay more
match their skills with
emotional IQ, depends on measurements of sus- attention to the fundamentals of college quar-
professionals doing similar
tained performance, on being able to engage in terbacks, since their passing mechanics are often
jobs in the civilian world.
endless amounts of deliberate practice. a window into how much grit they possess. “You
“Maybe they say he’s too short or too slow or know these guys have been coached for years,”
Visit ESPN.COM and
has a weak arm,” Brandt says, “but the reality is he says. “So if you see a QB with flawed funda-
search: SKILLS.
that if a quarterback has the right work ethic, mentals, you gotta wonder what’s wrong. Is he
then he can probably make up for those prob- coachable? Will he work to improve? Because
lems.” He points again to Brees, who wasn’t that’s important. You can teach a kid to throw
drafted until the second round, and Brady, who the ball, but only if he wants to learn.”
was ignored until the sixth. “That’s because After all, deliberate practice makes perfect. Ω

0418WONDER_lo.indd 69 4/1/11 9:17 PM


HEDLINE

0418KICKER_lo.indd 70 3/31/11 10:53 PM


CAN HE
KICK
IT ?

YES
HE
CAN !
BuT CAn KEmAR SCARLETT
BREAK THE mOLd in
THE nFL, wHERE BLACK
KiCKERS ARE viRTuALLY
nOnExiSTEnT?

71
BY SCOTT OSTLER
PHOTOGRAPHS BY
OLuGBEnRO OGunSEmORE

0418KICKER_lo.indd 71 3/31/11 10:53 PM


NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

Last season, Scarlett


(left) ranked third in
the MEAC in scoring;
Adams, his Morgan
State teammate,
was second in the
conference in punting
average.

A GustInG BALtIMORE BREEzE WhIPs AcROss MORGAn stAtE Even in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference,
with its 13 historically black colleges and univer-
unIVERsIty’s fOOtBALL fIELd On A MARch AftERnOOn As A PLAcE-
sities (11 have football programs, including
kIckER And A PuntER BLAst fOOtBALLs tOWARd thE GRAy cLOuds. Morgan State), most kickers are white or Hispanic.
“Hitting satellites,” they call it. The placekicker, In the past decade, Cedric Oglesby and Justin Which is why, when one of Morgan State’s two
Kemar Scarlett, a departing senior who’s prep- Medlock had brief placekicking stints. And two specialists trots onto the field, opponents stare.
ping for the team’s pro day later that week, spins Nigerian-born soccer-style kickers, Obed Ariri “I’ve heard, ‘Man, you’re black, you can’t kick, what
kickoffs deep into the end zone 75 yards away. and Donald Igwebuike, also made the NFL after are you doin’ kicking?’” says the 20-year-old
The punter, Nick Adams, a junior with two years starring at Clemson. Equally few African-American Adams. “Other teams are surprised to see a black
of eligibility remaining, booms tight spirals with punters have secured regular-season NFL kicker. Then to learn I’m actually good at it … ”
hang times approaching five seconds. jobs—most notably Greg Coleman and the late
Both players have NFL dreams and, based on Reggie Roby, who between them kicked for seven A FEW Hours bEForE practice, Scarlett and
raw ability, NFL potential. During one game in different NFL teams over 12- and 16-year careers, Adams walk through the Morgan State athletic
2009, the long-legged, 6'1" Scarlett hit a school- respectively. Currently, though, the NFL’s only complex, giving a tour of the school’s Hall of
record 55-yard field goal, and the burly, six-foot black kicking specialist is Browns punter Reggie Fame. They each point to photos of star alumni,
Adams launched a school-record 79-yard punt. Hodges (his father is black, his mother white). like NFL greats Leroy Kelly, Willie Lanier and
It was an outstanding day all around, one that Given their pro scarcity, it’s no surprise that Roosevelt Brown. Adams, who is steeped in MSU
helped earn them the nicknames DJ Kick and black kickers are nearly as rare in college. Kicking history, knows that almost 70 Bears have gone on
Big Punter around campus. But among pro hope- guru Gary Zauner, an NFL special-teams coordi- to the NFL. Seeing all those players who over-
fuls, Scarlett and Adams stand out for another nator for 13 seasons, holds off-season showcases came the odds to make the big time out of their
reason entirely—the color of their skin. with pro scouts for hopeful kickers. When tiny college, Scarlett and Adams can envision
In the NFL’s 91 seasons, very few African- asked to identify the best African-American their photos up on that wall too.
Americans, or black men of any nationality, have placekicking prospect today, Zauner says, “I’m not But the path to the NFL will be steeper for
earned a living launching the ball with their foot. able to name one.” Scarlett, and eventually Adams. For starters, both
In the 1960s and ’70s, Gene “Golden Toe” Mingo That’s because only one of 120 college teams in are self-taught in what have evolved into technique-
made a career of placekicking (while playing a FBS had a black kicker or punter appear in a intensive arts. Most top kicking prospects have
few other positions) for five AFL and NFL teams. game last season—Arizona punter Keenyn Crier. been specialty-coached for years by the time they

72

0418KICKER_lo.indd 72 3/31/11 10:53 PM


> NFL DRAFT CONFIDENTIAL
finish college. The old 50% gold standard for field WHO’S THE He’s a big guy, with a big personality and bigger headlines, but incoming pros make
NFL COACH head Jet Rex Ryan the big winner here. After two straight AFC championship game
goal accuracy is now closer to 85%, as kick doctors YOU’D MOST appearances, Ryan finishes with 42.3% of the vote, well in front of runner-up
refine concepts of balance, rhythm and transfer LIKE TO PLAY Steelers coach Mike Tomlin (17.3%). “I want a player’s coach,” says a Big 12
FOR? standout. “There’s really nobody else right now who’s even close to Rex Ryan when
of force. Likewise, a punter’s footwork, drop and it comes to connecting with his guys.”
Scan thiS for KiPEr’S
ball alignment can be more important than his Draft intEL!
(see page 10 for details)
brute power. Last season, with little outside
tutelage, Scarlett hit 18 of 24 field goals and Adams
averaged close to 40 yards per punt. “You can be
raw and kick the ball a long way,” says Crier, who to scouts can be expensive. Many colleges recruit Morgan State head coach Donald Hill-Eley. Adds
just finished his college career and hopes to break by holding instructional training combines for Oglesby: “When you turn on a TV you don’t see
into the NFL. “But if you have no technique, the high school kickers, charging fees as high as $400 an African-American kicker. There’s nobody
chance you’ll hit the ball you want to hit is slim.” for what are often glorified tryouts. “I went to there to relate to.”
Scarlett has never attended a camp, clinic or four college camps,” says Medlock, who wound Having tried out for more than a dozen NFL
combine. If he makes it to the NFL, he might be up at UCLA. “You get seen. A couple of schools teams, Oglesby knows about being the odd man
the league’s first YouTube baby. That’s where offered me a scholarship on the spot.” out in the locker room. When he pulled out his
the 21-year-old acquires most of his technical Oglesby, who runs a kicking school in Atlanta soccer cleats at the Cowboys’ training camp,
training, supplementing that with a few tips that has in the past offered financial aid to another player burst out laughing, saying, “Man,
from former Morgan State placekickers. It’s sort I’ve never seen a black kicker in my life!” In
of like trying to build a scratch golf swing from Arizona, where he kicked in place of an injured Bill
random advice at the driving range. “Confusing? Gramatica, teammates called him Gra-black-tica.
Yeah,” says the ever-upbeat Scarlett, “because During Oglesby’s time on the Chargers’ roster,
Last year,
people have different ways. I try to apply their teammates called him Igwe, a nod to Igwebuike.
tHe NFL
knowledge to my style. It works, it works.” But Igwebuike, who honed his skills playing
aND FBs
Or does it? At the 2010 HBCU All-Star Bowl, soccer, is not the model for modern black kickers.
FootBaLL
concerned observers told Scarlett that he needs At inner-city high schools, where soccer
HaD
to tweak his form. A coach from Tuskegee tends to be less popular, it’s not uncommon
University suggested Scarlett line up with his for football teams to de-emphasize kicking
shoulders square to the uprights. Back in high
school, he had to learn to kick with the side of his
tHe same NUmBer oF almost to the point of extinction.
Alonzo Carter spent eight years turn-
foot and not his instep. In junior college he was BLaCK PUNters ing out championship teams as head
taught to explode through the ball. All seemingly aND KICKers—oNe . coach of tradition-rich McClymonds
sound advice but still lacking the same thing High School in Oakland, but kickers
that eluded Albert Einstein: a unified theory. weren’t part of the glory. “We had black
According to Zauner, a hodgepodge of instruc- campers, points out that college recruiters kids as kickers,” says Carter, who is African-
tion can lead to a player’s developing shoddy typically rely on Internet scouting services. And American. “You didn’t even think about field goals.
technique. “Sometimes no coaching is better than because those rankings are based largely on what If our kicker missed a PAT, the rest of the game
wrong coaching,” he says. scouts see at camps, he explains, “If you can’t we were going for two. It was a cultural thing
But proper instruction comes with a price tag. afford to go to camps, you can’t get ranked.” that we just accepted.” Carter remembers one
Placekicking and punting have become country- Zauner also operates camps and combines in receiver who was named All-City—as a punter.
club disciplines, as training and gaining exposure Phoenix. College seniors and hopeful free agents “I brought him his medal,” Carter says, “and it was
pay $300 for a one-hour evaluation; free agents like shining armor to him. But his peers ridiculed
who wow Zauner can pay another $275 to kick in him. ‘You made All-City as a punter?’ They laughed
front of scouts from the NFL, Canadian Football at him. It’s ignorance, and we coaches are part
Browns punter League and United Football League. of the ignorance.”
Reggie Hodges
Zauner hasn’t seen Scarlett kick, partly because Some potentially great African-American kick-
money is an issue for the player. Instead of ers also get pushed—for good reason—to other
attending kicking camps over the past several positions. Chargers Pro Bowl punter Mike Scifres
off-seasons, Scarlett worked on a dinner-cruise (who is white) was the second-string punter at
boat in Washington, D.C. His rise from deckhand Destrehan High School in Louisiana, behind
to bosun’s mate on the Odyssey III is admirable, future Ravens star Ed Reed. But Reed, an all-state
but it’s not likely to impress scouts. defensive back and kick returner, ditched punting
Another hurdle for Scarlett and Adams: NFL at the college level to focus on free safety. In 1997,
scouts tend to overlook small-school kickers and when Zauner was special-teams coordinator for
punters. Says Oglesby, who placekicked and the Vikings, he had Randall Cunningham, an
punted at South Carolina State in the MEAC: “At All-America punter at UNLV, and Randy Moss
LARRY FRENCH/GETTY IMAGES

an HBCU you have to kick the ball out of the back slotted as emergency kickers. “They would stand
of the end zone to get anyone to notice.” at the 40-yard line in practice and kick 50-yard
The thinning of the pool of black kickers starts field goals, toe-punching the ball,” says Zauner.
long before college, though. “Black kids want to “Two great athletes, playing for Cokes. They
be the guy with the football in their arms,” says probably could have been great NFL punters and

73

0418KICKER_lo.indd 73 4/1/11 7:28 PM


NFL DRAFT PREVIEW
> NFL DRAFT CONFIDENTIAL
kickers.” In fact, Cunningham averaged nearly WHAT’S THE FIRST Some players say they’ll buy themselves a car. Others lean toward feeding
THING YOU’LL BUY their basic savings account. But the most common answer, given by 17.5%
45 yards on 20 career punts, including a 91-yard WHEN YOU SIGN WITH of the prospects, is spending on something nice—a house, a car, a
bomb that is still the fourth longest in NFL history. AN NFL TEAM? vacation—for Mom. “It would be a real thrill to pay off the mortgage on my
mom’s house,” says one SEC star. “She raised me there and turned me into
the man I’ve become.” Dads got some love too: Buying something for both
Scan thiS for KiPEr’S
rEGGIE HoDGEs Is the exception. A punter for parents was the second choice (12.5%). Draft intEL!
(see page 10 for details)
eight NFL teams over six seasons, Hodges, who
has two years to go with the Browns, didn’t dream
of becoming a fourth-down hero. No, the quarter-
back at Centennial High School in Champaign, Ill., was misfiled and he lost his scholarship. He spent day, pushing and inspiring each other. Adams
wanted to play hoops in college. But his Centennial the following two years at a community college in introduced Scarlett to weight training; in two
coach gave him punting duties after learning that Central California. But he sent tapes to Morgan years Scarlett has jumped from 170 to as high as
State and, in 2009, he was offered a partial schol- 192 pounds. They are both serious students:
arship that has since turned into a full ride. Adams wants a career in medicine, Scarlett is
Scarlett’s arrival two summers ago surprised a eyeing TV production. Once in uniform, they jok-
lot of players, none more than the Bears punter. ingly see themselves as superheroes with a mis-
“I did a double take when I saw a black kicker,” sion to alter the face of kicking and punting.
says Adams. “ ‘He matches me!’ He was booting “What we have is something that could change
just like I was. I’m like, Cool. Ever since then the game,” says Adams. “We just do things
we’ve been like brothers.” different. We take that HBCU African-American
ASKED To IDENTIFY
Adams came to Morgan State in 2009 as a swagger, and we apply it to positions that have
THE moST
PromISING 245-pound linebacker and defensive lineman. The been kind of clean-cut and white-collar.”
AFrICAN-AmErICAN coaches knew he had punted in high school, so Adams, who calls himself Turbo, has issued
ProSPECT, they told him, “We don’t have a punter, you’re it.” challenges to rival punt returners via Facebook
and wears brightly colored tape and bands
on his arm and legs. Scarlett wears flashy
THE PLACEKICKING GUrU black-and-yellow soccer cleats that he calls
ADmITTED: “I’m NoT ABLE To bumblebees. They talk trash and back it up by
making crunching tackles on special teams.
NAmE oNE.” After clutch field goals, Scarlett is met with a
flying chest bump from Adams before he gets
Hodges had finished second in a national Adams was relieved of his defensive duties imme- close to the sideline. A deep punt is cause for the
punt-pass-and-kick contest. As a senior, the diately. At first disappointed, he’s since embraced duo to dance the Dougie.
punter was all-state, averaging 39.4 yards per kick. his role. “I’m the fourth-down quarterback,” says “I bet if punters and kickers looked better, there
He went on to become a first-team All-MAC Adams. “If I kick the other team down on their would be a lot of young people who would want
selection as a senior at Ball State, and was drafted 1-yard line, it’s like scoring a touchdown.” to get into it,” says Scarlett. “They’ll come off as
in the sixth round by the Rams in 2005. If punting Now Adams and Scarlett are on the field every cool, not, ‘He’s just a kicker.’ It’s that stigma I want
lacks prestige, don’t tell Hodges. “I love to get over. We’re athletes, and we’re
it,” he says. “It’s an absolute blast. This important athletes.”
is what I’m called to do.”
Both Scarlett and Adams feel a simi- IMPorTANCE Is rElATIvE. On
lar pull to kicking. Scarlett grew up Morgan State’s pro day, the Baltimore
playing soccer in his home country of weather is still bitterly cold and wet.
Jamaica. When he moved to America Scarlett, a Over the previous weeks, scouts from
at age 13, his new school, Potomac High miniceleb on the Eagles and Ravens have indicated
the Morgan
in Oxon Hill, Md., didn’t have a soccer strong interest in Scarlett. He hopes
State campus,
team, so he ran cross-country. When has multiple other teams will be on hand.
the football coach learned that there nicknames, The Eagles don’t show. Two Ravens
including the
was a freshman runner with a skilled scouts record numbers for Scarlett
Jamaican
foot, he called Scarlett out of class on a Sensation. and three teammates on standard
Thursday and asked him to try kicking sprints and lifts, but with rain and
a football. By Saturday, Scarlett was winds gusting more than 30 mph,
kicking in a game—the first he ever they do not ask Scarlett to kick a
saw. Coach pushed him onto the field football. “I was disappointed that I
for a PAT attempt and Scarlett drilled wasn’t kicking,” Scarlett says later,
it. He had to ask how many points his “but I won’t let it knock me off track.”
kick was worth. This summer that track will lead
In 2007, Scarlett accepted a scholar- him to one of Zauner’s camps. After
ship at Bowie State in Maryland. all, Scarlett has to make sure scouts
When the coach’s contract was not remember his name before he can
renewed, Scarlett says his paperwork change the face of the game.

72

0418KICKER_lo.indd 74 3/31/11 10:54 PM


From left:
Rashad Carmichael,
PHOTOGRAPHS BY STYlING BY Casey Matthews,
KURT ISWARIENKO MARK HOlMES Stevan Ridley,
Tyler Sash,
Colin Kaepernick
and Jeremy Kerley.
76

0418KINGSX_lo.indd 76 4/1/11 12:00 AM


Kings

for a day

SPENdING THE dRAfT AT RAdIO


cITY ISN’T IN THE cARdS fOR
EvERY Nfl WANNABE. THAT’S
WHY, fOR THE fOURTH YEAR
IN A ROW, the Magazine
BROUGHT A cREW Of MId-
ROUNd PROSPEcTS TO THE BIG
APPlE fOR A lITTlE TASTE Of
THE AcTION—BROOKlYN STYlE.
BY l A RUE cOOK
(FROM LEFT) On Carmichael: leather jacket by dolce & gabbana; shirt by robert geller; hat by still life nyc; belt by diesel; jeans
by buffalo; shoes by allen edMonds. On Matthews: leather jacket by diesel; T-shirt by barney’s co-op; jeans by levi’s; boots by
red wing. On Ridley: suit jacket by Hugo boss; shirt by izod; tie by billy reid; jeans by diesel, Larkee Relaxed Fit; boots by red wing;
sunglasses by toMMy Hilfiger. On Sash: trench by billy reid (from Bloomingdale’s); shirt by izod; tie by billy reid; jeans by levi’s; boots
by red wing. On Kaepernick: trench by burberry (from Bloomingdale’s); shirt by izod; jeans by diesel, Larkee Relaxed Fit; shoes by dior
HoMMe. On Kerley: suit jacket by Hugo boss red label; T-shirt by robert geller; belt by diesel; jeans by dkny; boots by red wing.

LOCATION BROOKLYN BRIDGE PARK

0418KINGSX_lo.indd 77 4/1/11 12:00 AM


NFL DRAFT PrEVIEW
> NFL DRAFT CONFIDENTIAL
WOULD YOU More than half (55%) of our poll takers say the higher, the better. “The goal is
RATHER BE THE to be picked as soon as possible,” says one defender. But 23.8% go with Mr.
FIRST PICK OF THE Irrelevant, who gets a vacation in Newport Beach, a trip to Disneyland and the
SEVENTH ROUND, Lowsman Trophy, which depicts a player fumbling the ball. “You get your name
THE LAST PICK OF in the history books,” says one running back. “Who remembers the first pick of
THE DRAFT (MR. the seventh round?”
scan tHis for
IRRELEVANT) OR kiper’s draft intel!
UNDRAFTED? (see page 10 for details)

(FROM LEFT) On Kerley:


shirt by billy reid (from
Bloomingdale’s); jeans by
dkny jeans; vest by rag
& bone; boots by red
wing; tie is stylist’s own.
On Kaepernick: suit jacket
by toMMy Hilfiger; shirt
by calvin klein; cardigan
by tHe Men’s store
at blooMingdale’s;
jeans by diesel; shoes by
dior HoMMe; watch by
breitling.
Attention NFL owners:
Don’t ask what Kerley can
LOCATION do for you, but, rather, what
GRIMALDI’S PIZZERIA can’t he? In 2010, the 5'10"
189-pounder caught a
team-leading 10 TDs, ran
for two scores, threw for
another and was TCU’s top
punt and kick returner.
“I bring a lot to the table,”
says the Mountain West’s
Jeremy two-time special teams
POY. Plus, he’s already
Kerley played for a proven winner:
The Horned Frogs were the
Wr, TCU first non-BCS school to
become Rose Bowl champs.
“We always knew we were
Leather jacket by diesel; going to be the ones to
shirt by yigal azrouËl;
jeans by dkny jeans;
put the program back on
watch by breitling. the map.”
When he’ll be picked: Fifth
or sixth round.
LOCATION DUMBO Draft plans: At home,
watching every round on TV.

“My parents gave us the


Casey freedom to do anything, but
I wanted to play football,”
Matthews says Matthews, whose
father, Clay Jr., and uncle
LB, orEGoN Bruce, both played 19
seasons, while his brother
Clay III won Super Bowl XLV
Suit jacket by toMMy with the Packers. Casey
Hilfiger; shirt by billy
reid (from Bloomingdale’s);
lived up to the pedigree in
T-shirt by calvin klein 2010: He led the Ducks with
underwear; jeans a team-high 79 stops, and
by levi’s; watch by
breitling. racked up three picks
and nine tackles for loss
en route to the BCS title
LOCATION
game. At 6'1", 231 pounds,
DUMBO
he may not be the biggest
or strongest of this year’s
’backers. “But watch the
film,” Matthews says. “It’s
obvious I can make plays.”
When he’ll be picked: Third
or fourth round.
Draft plans: Hanging out
with family.

76

0418KINGSX_lo.indd 78 4/1/11 12:00 AM


NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

Rashad
Carmichael

CB, VIRgInIa TECh

Trench by BURBERRY (from


Saks Fifth Avenue); shirt by
IZOD; tie and vest by RAG
& BONE (from Saks Fifth
Avenue); jeans by BUFFALO;
shoes by ALLEN EDMONDS;
hat by STILL LIFE NYC.

LOCATION
WILLIAMSBURG

Nicknamed Roc by his late


father, Bernard, the 5'10",
192-pound speedster (4.36
40-time) certainly played
solid defense for the
Hokies. After recording a
career-high six intercep-
tions and 55 tackles in
2009, he led a secondary
that ranked No. 2 nationally
He may have had trouble in picks last season. All that
deciding on a pair of shoes, from a guy considered
Tyler Sash but choosing a college was slightly undersized by most
a no-brainer for the scouts. “To me, size doesn’t
SS, IOWa six-foot, 211-pound strong matter,” he says. “This
safety. “I grew up knowing game’s all about heart.”
nothing but the black and When he’ll be picked:
On Sash: Sweater by
BURBERRY (from Saks Fifth
gold,” says the Oskaloosa, Fourth or fifth round.
Avenue); shirt by ROBERT Iowa-native, who hauled in Draft plans: Home with
GELLER SECONDS; jeans by 13 career picks and holds
LEvI’S; boots by RED wING. family and friends.
(IN BACKGROUND, FROM the Hawkeyes’ all-time
LEFT) On Kerley: leather record for interception
jacket by SpURR (from
Bloomingdale’s); henley return yards (392). Those
by THE MEN’S STORE are just the kind of stats
AT BLOOMINGDALE’S;
V-neck by ROBERT GELLER; he’ll need to stand out
jeans by BUFFALO. On among this year’s crop of
Carmichael: leather jacket
and shirt by DIESEL; jeans safeties. Not that Sash is
by BUFFALO; shoes by sweating. “All 32 teams
ALLEN EDMONDS.
don’t have to like you,” he
says. “It just takes one.”
When he’ll be picked: Fifth
LOCATION
VINNIE’S STYLES or sixth round.
Draft plans: A small

GroominG by KEiKo HAmAGUCHi/DEFACTo; STyLinG by mArK HoLmES/SEE mAnAGEmEnT


get-together with friends.

(FROM LEFT) On Ridley: Hat by STILL LIFE NYC; suit jacket by HUGO BOSS;
shirt by YIGAL AZROUëL (from Saks Fifth Avenue); jeans by DIESEL;
boots by RED wING; watch by BREITLING. On Kaepernick: Trench by
BURBERRY; shirt by BILLY REID (from Bloomingdale’s); cardigan by THE
MEN’S STORE AT BLOOMINGDALE’S; jeans by DIESEL; shoes by DIOR
HOMME. On Kerley: Leather jacket by DIESEL; shirt by YIGAL AZROUëL
(from Saks Fifth Avenue); jeans by DkNY; belt by DIESEL; boots by RED
wING. On Carmichael: Trench by BURBERRY (from Saks Fifth Avenue);
shirt by IZOD; tie and vest by RAG & BONE (from Saks Fifth Avenue);
jeans by BUFFALO; shoes by ALLEN EDMONDS; belt by DIESEL; watch by
BREITLING. On Sash: Leather jacket by BURBERRY (from Bloomingdale’s);
denim shirt by DIESEL; T-shirt by CALvIN kLEIN UNDERwEAR; jeans by
LEvI’S; boots by RED wING. On Matthews: Coat by wOOLRICH; T-shirts
by CALvIN kLEIN UNDERwEAR; jeans by LEvI’S; boots by RED wING.

LOCATION DUMBo

80

0418KINGSX_lo.indd 80 4/1/11 10:49 AM


NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

During his first two seasons


in Baton Rouge, patience
became a virtue for the
5'11", 225-pound Ridley:
With only 57 carries he
didn’t exactly have much of
a résumé. “When your time
finally comes, you have to
be ready,” Ridley says. His
time came last season, and
Ridley was prepared,
rushing for 1,147 yards and
15 touchdowns, fourth
most in school history. It
was only one season, but
the bruising back believes
he showed enough to prove
he’s NFL-ready and that last
season wasn’t a fluke. “If a
team wants three or four
yards a carry,” he says, “then
I’m their pick.”
When he’ll be picked: Sixth
or seventh round.
Draft plans: Cook out with
LSU teammates.

Stevan Now you can find out with the


Ridley
MMOJO Analyzer. It checks out
RB, LSU your social stats on Facebook
then shows how your MMOJO
Suit jacket by DkNY; shirt
by IZOD; tie by BILLY REID;
stacks up against your friends.
jeans by DIESEL; hat by
STILL LIFE NYC; sunglasses Get your MMOJO score at
by TOMMY HILFIGER.
minutemaid.com/mmojo
LOCATION
WILLIAMSBURG

The only QB in FBS history


Colin with the head-turning stats
of 10,000 yards passing
Kaepernick and 4,000 yards rushing,
the 6' 5", 233-pound
QB, nEVada Kaepernick ran Nevada’s
pistol-spread attack with
aplomb. The question is
Trench by BURBERRY (from whether he can run a
Saks Fifth Avenue); cardi-
gan by THE MEN’S STORE
pro-style offense. “I had to
AT BLOOMINGDALE’S; adapt to a completely new
jeans by DIESEL. offense in college, and I
started as a freshman,” says
Kaepernick, whose 4.53
LOCATION
WILLIAMSBURG 40-time was the second
best for QBs at the combine.
“That proves I can make a
transition quickly.”
When he’ll be picked:
Second or third round.
Draft plans: Lounging
poolside or playing
basketball.

0418KINGSX_lo.indd 83 4/1/11 10:49 AM


NFL DRAFT PREVIEW
FROM LEFT: ICON SMI; ChRIS LIvINgSTON/ICON SMI; RICh KANE/ICON SMI; RICh gAbRIELSON/ICON SMI; RuSSELL TRACy/SOuThCREEK gLObAL/zuMA pRESS; KELLEN MICAh/ICON SMI; RICh KANE/ICON SMI; RIChARD A. bRIghTLy/ICON SMI; AARON JOSEFCzyK/ICON SMI; gENE LOWER/SOuThCREEK gLObAL/zuMA pRESS

WHERE DO NFL PLAYERS COME FROM? OUR COLORFUL CENSUS REVEALS ALL.
GRAPHS BY ANDREW GARCIA PHILLIPS, CHARTBALL

They range in height from 5'6" to 6'9" and in weight from NFL DRAFT PREVIEW
CAREER VALUE A measure of a player’s overall worth.
For the full explanation, see page 85.
ROOT
150 to 376 pounds. They are as young as 21, as old as 42. CAUSE ROUND DRAFTED BIRTHPLACE

Calif.
NCAA CONFERENCE
Top schools:
LSU
Georgia
44
38
CAREER VALUE
LOWEST (0)
A measure of a player’s overall worth.
For the full explanation, see page 85.

HIGHEST (255)
LOWEST (0) HIGHEST (255)
(251) SEC Florida 36
1st round (292) Drafted in

They come from every state and 23 countries and have


Tennessee 35
(308) Auburn 27 1st round
Alabama 26
Mississippi 23
South Carolina 21
e
Peyton i
Manning
Texas
Miami 45
(211) Florida State 31

2,046
2nd round (239) ACC Maryland 29 2nd round
Georgia Tech 25
(278)

gone to 253 NCAA schools in 43 conferences. The Pats


Virginia 25
Boston College 23
Fla.
(184)
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
23
20 Drafted in
Brett Favre
a

players were
on NFL 3rd round (219)
Ohio State
Michigan
42
33 3rd round 1st round
rosters or on Ohio (100) Big Ten
Iowa 30
Penn State 29
the IR at the (256) Purdue 26
Michigan State 24 Terrell Owens

have been most adept at drafing them, the Bucs consider-


end of the La. (91) Illinois 21
Wisconsin 21
2010
season. 4th round (212) 4th round
Texas 42
Ga. (88) Oklahoma 30
Big 12 Nebraska 29
Here’s N.J. (65) (221)
Kansas State 18 Derrick Mason
so

where they
Pa. (65)
Texas A&M
Colorado
17
16
Oklahoma State 16
e
Peyton i
Manning
come from: 5th round (172) 5th round

ably less so. On the pages that follow, you’ll find a graphic 6th round (160)
N.Y. (64)

Mich. (60)

Other U.S. states


Pac-10
(215)
USC
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Arizona State
UCLA

Pittsburgh
39
33
25
22
21
19

21
6th round
Mark Brunell
ru

Tom Brady
(796) Big East Louisville 20
(115)

breakdown of the 2,046 players who were either on a


Rutgers 19
7th round (172) Including: 7th round
Ill. 55
Va. 54
S.C. 54 Donald Driver
N.C. 53
Ala. 52
Tenn. 44 Notre Dame 27
Miss. 38 Fresno State 21
Okla. 33 Utah 21
Md. 29 Others San Diego State 16

team roster in 2010’s Week 17 or on the league’s IR list.


Ind. 26 Brigham Young 14
(641) Central Florida 13
Not drafted (574) TCU 13
Colorado State
Hawaii
12
12
Not drafted
Brett Favr
Boise State 10

Outside U.S. (71)

Thanks to the design whizzes at Chartball for bringing SURVEY SAYS ... The only player whose career was launched
from the No. 247 overall spot is defensive
tackle Brandon Deaderick (2010 draft).
More NFL players were born in Germany (7) than in
Idaho (5) or West Virginia (4). We’re guessing Dad’s
military service has something to do with that.
Of the 292 first-rounders, only 30
attended a non-BCS school.
Jeff Saturday
S

Of the vets with zero career value, Ravens QB Brian


Brohm (No. 56 overall, 2008) is the only one who was
drafted in the first two rounds.

88 89

our colossal spreadsheet of data to multidimensional life.


ABOUT CAREER VALUE
It’s long been one of the most frustrating limitations of football analysis: How do you compare
an offensive lineman to a QB to a linebacker? Doug Drinen of Pro Football Reference has
created a stat—approximate career value—to solve that conundrum. Through an intricate yet
elegant series of equations built on individual contributions and accomplishments, a single
number is placed on a player’s value each season. Those single-season numbers are then
added together to yield a player’s career value. We’ve aggregated every 2010 player’s career
value, by position and draft slot, in the pages that follow. (For more on Drinen’s methodology,
see pro-football-reference.com.)

85

0418CENSUS_lo.indd 85 4/1/11 7:37 PM


NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

BODY HEIGHT WEIGHT

SCAN Quarterbacks (103 players)


5'6" 6' 6'9" 200 lbs. 300 375

4 players: 6'6" Byron Leftwich: 250

Running backs (169)

Brandon Jacobs: 6'4" Madison Hedgecock: 266

Tight ends (127)

2,046
players were
Wide receivers (219)
3 players: 6'8" Brandon M
Manumaleuna: 295
5

on NFL Evan Moore, Ramses Barden: 6'6" Evan Moore: 2


247

rosters or on
the IR at the
end of the
Offensive linemen (340)
2010
season.

Here’s how 4 players: 6'9" Herman Johnson,


o Langston Walker: 360

they size up:

Defensive linemen (344)

a
Calais Campbell, Ropati Pitoitua: 6'8" Anthony
t Bryant: 376
6

Linebackers (272)

5 players: 6'5" a
Brandon Lang: 266

Defensive backs (397)

Pat Watkins: 6'5" a


Caleb Campbell: 237

Kickers / punters (75)


5 players: 6'5" Saverio Rocca: 265

SURVEY SAYS ... Of the 377 players who stand less than six feet The shortest pro, 5'6" running back Darren
tall, 50% of them are defensive backs. Sproles, still weighs more, at 181 pounds, than
67 other players.

85

0418CENSUS_lo.indd 86 4/1/11 7:37 PM


AGE DRAFT POSITION CAREER VALUE A measure of a player’s overall worth.
For the full explanation, see page 85.

20 25 30 35 40 No. 257 Round No. 1 LOWEST (0) HIGHEST (255)


4 3 2 1

Not
drafted
r Favre: 41
Brett 1 8 players: No. 1 Brett Favre
a

a
Tony Richardson: 39 Ronnie Brown,
w Reggie Bush: No. 2 n Tomlinson
LaDainian s

ke Sellers: 35
Mike 5 w Vernon Davis: N
Kellen Winslow, No. 6 a
Tony Gonzalez

Terrell Owens:
T n 37 Calvin Johnson: No. 2 Terrell Owens

David B
Binn: 38 Jake Long: No. 1 Alan Faneca
n

a
Pat Williams: 38 Mario Williams:: No. 1 Jason Taylor
a

Jason Kyle:
K 38 Aaron Curry: No. 4 Ray
R Lewis

r Dawkins,
Brian s Lawyer Milloy:
l 37 Charles
h Woodson: No.
N 4 Ronde Barber
b
Note: Career value is not calculated for kickers and punters.

Matt Turk: 42 Sebastian Janikowski: No. 17

When Brett Favre made his debut, on Oct. 27, Only 17 of the 103 QBs were undrafted, the Texans WR Andre Johnson and Steelers DB Troy
1991, the NFL’s current youngest player, Patriots lowest rate of any position. But six of them Polamalu, both of whom are 29, have the highest
TE Aaron Hernandez, was 23 months old. started at least two games in 2010. career value (85) of any player below the age of 30.

85

0418CENSUS_lo.indd 87 4/1/11 7:37 PM


NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

ROOT
CAUSE ROUND DRAFTED BIRTHPLACE

Calif.
1st round (292) (251)

Texas
(211)

2,046
2nd round (239)

Fla.
players were (184)
on NFL 3rd round (219)
rosters or on Ohio (100)
the IR at the
end of the La. (91)
2010
season. 4th round (212)
Ga. (88)

Here’s N.J. (65)


where they
come from: Pa. (65)
5th round (172)
N.Y. (64)

Mich. (60)
6th round (160)
Other U.S. states
(796)
7th round (172) Including:
Ill. 55
Va. 54
S.C. 54
N.C. 53
Ala. 52
Tenn. 44
Miss. 38
Okla. 33
Md. 29
Ind. 26

Not drafted (574)

Outside U.S. (71)

SURVEY SAYS ... The only player whose career was launched More NFL players were born in Germany (7) than in
from the No. 247 overall spot is defensive Idaho (5) or West Virginia (4). We’re guessing Dad’s
tackle Brandon Deaderick (2010 draft). military service has something to do with that.

88

0418CENSUS_lo.indd 88 4/1/11 7:37 PM


CAREER VALUE A measure of a player’s overall worth.
For the full explanation, see page 85.

NCAA CONFERENCE LOWEST (0) HIGHEST (255)

Top schools:
LSU 44
Georgia 38
SEC Florida 36
Tennessee 35 Drafted in
(308) Auburn 27 1st round
Alabama 26
Mississippi 23
South Carolina 21
e
Peyton i
Manning

Miami 45
Florida State 31
ACC Maryland 29 2nd round
Georgia Tech 25
(278) Virginia 25
Boston College 23
Virginia Tech 23
North Carolina 20 Brett Favre
a

Ohio State 42
Michigan 33 3rd round
Iowa 30
Big Ten Penn State 29
Purdue 26
(256) Michigan State 24 Terrell Owens
Illinois 21
Wisconsin 21

Texas 42 4th round


Oklahoma 30
Big 12 Nebraska 29
Kansas State 18 so
Derrick Mason
(221) Texas A&M 17
Colorado 16
Oklahoma State 16
5th round
USC 39
California 33
ru
Mark Brunell
Pac-10 Oregon 25
Oregon State 22
(215) Arizona State 21
UCLA 19 6th round

Tom Brady
Pittsburgh 21
Big East Louisville 20
(115) Rutgers 19
7th round

Donald Driver

Notre Dame 27
Fresno State 21
Utah 21
Others San Diego State 16
Brigham Young 14
(641) Central Florida 13
TCU 13
Colorado State 12 Not drafted
Hawaii 12
Boise State 10

S
Jeff Saturday

Of the 292 first-rounders, only 30 Of the vets with zero career value, Ravens QB Brian
attended a non-BCS school. Brohm (No. 56 overall, 2008) is the only one who was
drafted in the first two rounds.

85

0418CENSUS_lo.indd 89 4/1/11 7:37 PM


NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

CREDIT JUDGING EACH TEAM BY THE PLAYERS IT DRAFTED Wondering why the Browns can never
hang in the AFC North, while the Packers consistently contend in the NFC North? It’s the draft, silly. This chart assigns every player from our survey
to the organization that picked him, then arranges each team’s selections in order of position and career value. From the spoils goes the victor.

CHECK Each box represents one player drafted by that team

QB RB TE WR OL DL LB DB K/P
Career value is a measure of a player’s overall worth. For the full explanation, see page 85.
Larger boxes
indicate players
with greater
career value
Players who were
no longer playing
for the team that
drafted them

J. Losman W. McGahee L. Evans A. Levitre C. Kelsay P. Posluszny A. Winfield

Eagles
Bills

R. Brown R. McMichael C. Chambers V. Carey J. Taylor C. Crowder Y. Bell


C. Henne
Dolphins

T. Brady K. Faulk D. Graham D. Branch M. Light R. Seymour J. Mayo L. Milloy

Patriots

C. Pennington L. Washington C. Baker S. Moss K. McKenzie J. Abraham J. Farrior D. Revis

Jets

J. Flacco C. Taylor T. Heap B. Stokley C. Rabach H. Ngata R. Lewis E. Reed

Ravens

C. Palmer C. Ochocinco E. Steinbach J. Smith T. Spikes M. Williams

Bengals

C. Frye K. Winslow B. Edwards J. Thomas G. Warren A. Davis C. Crocker


J. Harrison
Browns

R. Mendenhall H. Miller H. Ward A. Faneca A. Smith J. Porter T. Polamalu


B. Roethlisberger
Steelers

O. Daniels A. Johnson C. Pitts M. Williams D. Ryans D. Robinson


D. Carr
Texans

P. Manning J. Addai D. Clark R. Wayne R. Diem D. Freeney M. Peterson A. Bethea

Colts

D. Garrard F. Taylor M. Lewis M. Thomas B. Meester M. Stroud A. Ayodele R. Mathis

Jaguars

C. Johnson B. Scaife D. Mason M. Roos R. Smith K. Bulluck C. Finnegan

Titans R. Smith

J. Cutler C. Portis D. Clark B. Marshall B. Hamilton T. Pryce D. Williams D. Foxworth

Broncos

J. Charles T. Gonzalez D. Bowe J. Allen S. Fujita B. Pollard

Chiefs B. Croyle

D. McFadden Z. Miller L. Murphy R. Gallery T. Brayton E. Barton C. Woodson

Raiders

D. Brees L. Tomlinson J. Peelle V. Jackson M. McNeill J. Williams B. Leber Q. Jammer

Chargers

85

0418CENSUS_lo.indd 90 4/1/11 7:37 PM


NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

CREDIT
CHECK Each box represents one player drafted by that team

QB RB TE WR OL DL LB DB K/P
Career value is a measure of a player’s overall worth. For the full explanation, see page 85.
Larger boxes
indicate players
with greater
career value
Players who were
no longer playing
for the team that
drafted them

J. Jones J. Witten P. Crayton F. Adams J. Ratliff D. Ware R. Williams


S. McGee
Cowboys

P. Rivers B. Jacobs J. Shockey K. Walter C. Snee O. Umenyiora D. Jones W. Allen

Giants

D. McNabb B. Westbrook B. Celek D. Jackson B. Williams T. Cole O. Gaither B. Dawkins

Eagles

J. Campbell L. Betts C. Cooley D. Dockery K. Golston R. McIntosh C. Bailey

Redskins

K. Orton M. Forte B. Berrian O. Kreutz A. Brown B. Urlacher W. Harris


G. Olsen
Bears

C. Batch K. Smith R. Williams J. Backus S. Rogers E. Sims A. Goodman

Lions

M. Brunell B. Jackson D. Martin D. Driver C. Clifton V. Holliday N. Diggs D. Sharper

Packers

T. Thigpen A. Peterson R. Moss M. Birk K. Williams E. Henderson B. Williams


J. Kleinsasser
Vikings

B. Favre J. Griffith A. Crumpler R. White T. McClure J. Babineaux K. Brooking D. Hall

Falcons

K. Collins D. Williams J. King S. Smith J. Gross J. Peppers W. Witherspoon D. Grant

Panthers

M. Bulger R. Williams M. Colston J. Evans W. Smith R. Harper


J. Gilmore
Saints

C. Williams M. Clayton J. Trueblood R. Miller B. Ruud R. Barber


J. Freeman
Buccaneers

T. Jones L. Pope A. Boldin L. Davis D. Dockett K. Dansby A. Wilson


M. Leinart
Cardinals

M. Morris J. Carlson S. Hutchinson P. Daniels L. Tatupu M. Trufant


S. Wallace
Seahawks

A. Smith F. Gore V. Davis T. Owens K. Kosier A. Carter J. Peterson P. Prioleau

49ers

R. Fitzpatrick S. Jackson T. Holt J. St. Clair R. Pickett S. Shanle O. Atogwe


B. Manumaleuna
Rams

85

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NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

HoWARd

GRADING
ON A

CURVE
EVERY DRAFT OFFERS VALUE TO THOSE WHO UNDERSTAND THE GAME WITHIN THE GAME.
BY PETER KEATING
cRoSby
mAUER

When We Watch a just-drafted athlete hug $5.3M and won’t top $10M in the next three sea- NHL | Play It Safe
his mom, put on a goofy cap and smile for the sons. The lesson: Once you get a superstar, build Hockey’s rookie pay scale is even more stringent
camera in anticipation of a multimillion-dollar around him before he bolts for a better situation than basketball’s: Entry-level salaries top out at
contract, it’s natural to wonder how he could and/or more money. Think Dwight Howard and $925K, with a max signing bonus of $92,500. Top
possibly be worth all that money before ever the Magic, not LeBron and the Cavs. players, like Sidney Crosby, can earn up to $2.85
playing a minute in a pro game. million a year in performance bonuses on their
But that’s the wrong way to think about drafts. NFL | Trade Down rookie contract, but that’s still below the overall
The most important thing to realize is this: The Football has lots of impact rookies and no rookie value they produce, and they get the bonus money
players aren’t free agents, which means they salary limits (not yet, anyway). As a result, more only if they play well. Moreover, NHL players
don’t get paid anything close to their value on the money flows to first-year players than in any don’t hit unrestricted free agency until they’re 27,
open market. Remember how Cuban defector other sports, so much so that surplus value actu- so young players are almost purely surplus value.
Aroldis Chapman, an international free agent, ally rises through the first round of the draft Too bad teams aren’t taking advantage: According

from top: fernando medina/nbae/getty images; james guillory/us presswire; mitch stringer/icon smi; kirby lee/image of sport/us presswire
got twice as much guaranteed money as Stephen (see graph), peaking early in the second round. to research by Tom Awad of Hockey Prospectus,
Strasburg, the top pick in the 2009 MLB draft? Whiffing on a top pick like JaMarcus Russell hurts 23% of players taken from No. 11 to No. 30 in
However you convert on-field stats to dollars, more than in other sports, and trading down is the first round since 1990 have failed to reach
the average performance of young players ranks typically the wise play, which is why smart teams the NHL. Surplus value isn’t real unless players
higher than their average compensation. Usually, like the Patriots and Eagles do it so often. produce at least a little on big league ice.
it’s not even close. Of course, different rules and
talent pools combine to create different surplus-
value ratios across the four big team sports. Here
is the key lesson to take from each.

MLB | Forget the Money,


vAlue ADDeD
To SHoW SURPLUS VALUE, these charts present average performance of draft
Draft the Best Player picks, in dollars, relative to those picks’ compensation. For NFL players, we
Despite the efforts of Scott Boras, the bonuses RUSSELL
compare a leading study’s estimate of annual player values to salary cap charges
that baseball teams shell out are a fraction of over the first five years of rookie contracts. For MLB players, we compare analysts’
what players are worth on the field. Further, calculations of the total value generated by hitters in their first six years to their
signing bonuses and salaries. The lesson: NFL teams often get more bang for their
MLBers don’t reach free agency until they’ve buck in the second round than the first, but surplus value is massive everywhere.
played six years in the bigs, which means huge
surplus value until then. In 2006, Joe Mauer’s doLLARS
(iN miLLioNS)
NFL doLLARS
(iN miLLioNS)
mLb

performance was worth an estimated $22 million 6.0 Performance Value 70.0 Value
Cap Charge Compensation
for the Twins, but as a second-year player he 5.0
Surplus
60.0
Surplus
50.0
made just $400K. No matter the signing bonus, a 4.0
40.0
successful draft pick is a boon to the bottom line. 3.0
30.0
2.0
20.0
NBA | Build Around High Picks 1.0 10.0
as Quickly as Possible 0 0
20 60 100 140 180 220 260 25 50 75 100
The league instituted a rookie salary scale in 1995, dRAFT Pick dRAFT Pick
so while Rashard Lewis is making more than $20
NFL chart data from Cade Massey and Richard H. Thaler, “The Loser’s Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the NFL Draft.” MLB chart
million this year, Blake Griffin is earning just adapted from Victor Wang, “Valuing the Draft,” hardballtimes.com, and Colin Johnston, “Prospect Surplus Value,” beyondtheboxscore.com.

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B
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BIG IT’S EVERY FOOTBALL
PLAYER’S DREAM TO
The Legend Of

BY ALLISON GLOCK
PHOTOGRAPHS BY THOMAS PRIOR
BECOME AN NFL DRAFT
PICK. OR IS IT? MEET
RICH WILLIAMS, WHO
TURNED DOWN MILLIONS
TO PURSUE A MOST
UNEXPECTED CALLING.

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NFL DRAFT PREVIEW

Instead he sways foot to foot, growls, scowls, other teams, invited him for a visit. An NFL
keeps his eyes on the wall. Finally, it’s time: career was his for the asking; many experts
The grip guys are summoned onstage and intro- projected Williams to be a top-100 pick.
duced to a crowd of thousands. Then the first Then he went to meet the folks in Miami.
event begins. Using one hand, the men must “The city was too hot, too big, too everything,” he
hoist a 163-pound anvil by the horn and walk. remembers thinking. His agent said fine, on to
The first few contestants can’t even loosen the the next team. But that’s when Williams did the
weight from the ground, their palms slipping unthinkable. He took a pass on the entire league,
uselessly as if they were tugging at a tree root. withdrawing from the draft a week beforehand.
Haugen frees the anvil, carries it a little less than “People thought I was stupid, crazy, that I didn’t
three feet and drops it to the floor like a Buick. think it through,” he says. “But I did.”
Now it is Williams’ turn. He approaches the Truth was, football had been dead to Williams
anvil, bends, wraps his right hand around the tip for years. Training was his true love, even as a
and lifts. He waddles the length of the stage, kid. His father, Richard Williams Sr., a retired GE

Size turns and waddles back. He does not rush. He employee who had played high school football,

doesn’t
matter.
That’s one of the first things the strongmen tell
you, even though most of them are large enough
to have their size infiltrate their names. Like “Big
Rich” Williams, 6'3", 410 pounds, the man with
the marvelous hands. The hands themselves are
average looking. Not the sort of things you’d
note from afar, as you would, say, J-Lo’s backside
or Drew Gooden’s beard. And, yet, despite their
ordinary appearance, Williams’ hands are the
strongest in the world. Perhaps the strongest
that have ever existed. And on this March after-
noon, at the Arnold Sports Festival in Columbus,
Ohio, Williams intends to use those hands to
show the world the power he holds, like a super-
hero, at the ready, in his palm.
It’s just after lunchtime at the four-day expo
of bodybuilding, arm wrestling and strongman
At the recent Arnold Sports
contests, and the 32-year-old Williams is back-
Festival, Big Rich set the
stage, staring into a cinder block wall, head record in every grip event, remembers his son at age 8, dressed as a strong-
inches away. Other strongmen grunt and groan including the pinch pull. man for Halloween: “He wore my weight belt
through warmup exercises, slapping Tiger Balm and stuffed his arms and legs to look muscular.”
onto their sweaty bellies. Williams and six of his carries the anvil like a lunch pail. He lets it slip at Rich Jr. says he joined his junior high football
rivals are up next on the expo main stage, to take 60 feet, eight inches. That nearly doubles the team in Charlottesville, Va., so he could have
part in the second annual Mighty Mitts competi- world record—the one he set last year. The crowd access to the workout equipment. “I was always
tion, a subset of the strongman event that cen- erupts. As they should. Because in all probability, curious,” he says. “How strong could I be?”
ters exclusively on hand strength. Also known they will never see anything like that again. Even as the younger Williams excelled on both
as grip, Mighty Mitts tests the skills of an inti- sides of the line in high school, football was a
mate community of men who lift, hoist, pull, WILLIAMS WASN’T ALWAYS a modern-day means to another end, a way to earn a free ride to
grab and clutch extraordinarily heavy items. It is John Henry. He started, as most large boys do, college. At Gardner-Webb, his ambivalence over
equal parts freak show and athletic feat, having playing football. And he was good: a three-year the sport gave way to hatred. He felt like he had
evolved from the carny tents where grip legends starting left tackle for Gardner-Webb, a Division little control of his situation, and he questioned
wrapped horseshoes into heart shapes and I-AA college in Boiling Springs, N.C. He allowed the motives of agents and scouts. But he couldn’t
passed them out to swooning ladies. only one sack as a senior in 2001. At a predraft afford to quit. And he didn’t want to let his team-
As the minutes tick down to showtime, Mighty workout in March 2002, he ran a 5.36 40-yard mates down. “In a way,” says Williams, “I was
Mitts’ most senior contestant, 61-year-old Odd dash, benched 225 pounds 37 times, broad doing what my family and friends kept telling
Haugen, makes the rounds, catching up with jumped eight feet and squatted more than 700 me was in my best interest. That was why I got
friends. Williams doesn’t join the conversation. pounds. The Dolphins, Bears and Packers, among an agent, set up meetings with teams. But in my

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NFL DRAFT PREVIEW
> NFL DRAFT CONFIDENTIAL
heart, I knew I wanted out. My playing football IF YOU KNEW YOU About one in seven players admit they’d consider this proposition, but the vast
WOULDN’T GET majority (85%) end up sounding more like concerned moms than concerned
made everybody else happy. Not me.” CAUGHT, WOULD prospects. “If God meant for you to have it, you’d have it,” says a top LB. “Drugs
And so it was that a likely third-round pick, YOU HAVE TAKEN are never the answer.” Others say they wouldn’t do such a thing, although they
PEDs TO PUMP UP weren’t at all sure about their colleagues. Says a probable first-rounder, “I like
with earning potential in the millions, walked YOUR COMBINE being the one guy who’s au naturel.”
Scan thiS for
away from an NFL career and into the arms of an PERFORMANCE? KiPEr’S Draft intEL!
(see page 10 for details)
uncertain future. He was 23 years old. “I had no
plans, really,” he says. “I knew I’d be ridiculed for
my decision. But anything was better than suiting
up another day. It is the worst form of deception the league, they understood the brutality of the named Sue, married her six months later, and
to pretend you love something you don’t.” game, the sacrifices you make to play.” stopped thinking about football entirely. Or
A short list of people who thought Williams Donovan Craft, a friend and former teammate tried to. “People always bring it up, ask me about
should have faked it and collected the dollars: at Gardner-Webb, remembers trying to reason it,” Williams says. “They can’t believe I walked
his agent, his father, his then-girlfriend, his best with Williams. “I wanted to make sure he real- away from the paycheck, the glory.” But he is
friend, his teammates, his teammates’ parents, ized what he was giving up,” Craft says. “I would uninterested in cash or worldly enticements. He
his neighbors, his classmates, his college coach, have done anything to play. And he wasn’t even has no real debt. He doesn’t even have a credit
his college coach’s wife. tempted. He didn’t care about the prize at the card. “That’s another reason why I didn’t need
Notably absent from the list: his mother, who end of the rainbow.” the NFL. Material things don’t mean anything
reminded him that he need answer only to God, Says Williams: “I believed I had other things to to me. Money can’t give you longer days. The
not the will of other men; also, many current and offer, even if I didn’t know then what they were. so-called American Dream … it’s temporal.”
former NFL players. “A lot of the people arguing I had faith.” His single indulgence is his cherry red V-8
for me to take the money were people who had He ended up graduating in 2003 and getting a Dodge Ram, tricked out with a Flowmaster. The
never played a day of football in their entire teaching job in a public high school in Kings vanity plate reads “Lone Wolf,” which he says is
lives,” Williams says. “But when I spoke to guys in Mountain, N.C. He met a smart woman there a joke. He keeps the truck in mint condition,
spraying on tire gloss in a Wal-Mart parking lot.

AT HOME IN Columbia, S.C., Williams works out


in loose nylon shorts, cobalt-blue Converse
sneakers and a massive, black T-shirt with
“John 14:6 one road” silk-screened on the back.
He rotates among three gyms. For grip training,
he uses Sorinex, a strength equipment manufac-
turing company founded and run by 60-year-old
Richard Sorin, an amiable, earnest guy who
happens to be a former grip master.
The grip community is a tiny one; fewer than a
Since grip contests dozen men compete professionally. In the gym,
don’t pay like the photos of Sorin hoisting things with his hands—
NFL does, Williams his mustache in full vaudevillian bloom—adorn
works as a crossing
guard and an in- a back wall. Under the photos are implements of
school supervisor. grip training: anvils, cast-iron buckets, waist-
high metal cones, chains strung with steel spring
“grippers,” coiled pinchers that resemble Satan’s
salad tongs. To the untrained eye, it looks like a
scrap yard. To Sorin, it is a beloved, if under-
appreciated, museum.
“Twelve men in the world have ever lifted
that,” Sorin says, gesturing to a 50-pound blob of
metal, obstinate not due to its weight but due
to its shape. He adds that grip equipment—
confounding geometric configurations of thick
stone or metal—dates back to ancient Greece in
design and sells for hundreds of dollars on eBay.
A blob goes for $700, mostly to grip fans like
Sorin, men who believe, as he puts it, that “the
sign of a man’s bond is his handshake.”
Unless your day job is at the anvil plant,
grip skills can lie dormant, unobserved and
unheralded. And that makes grip the rarest of
abilities—something you are born with that you
stumble across via happenstance. A genuine

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NFL DRAFT PREVIEW
> NFL DRAFT CONFIDENTIAL
surprise. A gift. Williams discovered his gift in AN NFL TEAM This question elicited a resounding yes (75%). “We’ll play anywhere as long as
PROMISES TO TAKE we’re in the league,” says an SEC star. Among the 25% who say no, some just
October 2008, after walking into Sorin’s gym. YOU IN THE FIRST didn’t want to swap jobs. Others, though, may have overthought it just a little.
“Rich is a wonder,” Sorin says. “He came in and ROUND, BUT ONLY IF “Honestly, I’d rather do the thing that helps me drop out of the first round,” says
YOU’LL SWITCH SIDES a projected top pick who’d like to avoid the mandatory four-year contract
lifted the anvil and looked at me like, ‘What’s so OF THE BALL. WOULD first-rounders must agree to. “I’d still sign a decent contract, but then I could
Scan thiS for
hard about that?’” Sorin’s eyes widen. Then he YOU DO IT? ball out and sign a huge second deal three years from now.” KiPEr’S Draft intEL!
(see page 10 for details)
points to another patron. “That guy over there?
He can deadlift 800 pounds. But he can’t lift the
anvil once. It staggers me what Rich can do. He’s
like a tall tale you’d hear, the man who can lift end of the day, you have to live with the conse- Williams stumbles across a booth for Liquid Grip.
medicine balls with his fingertips.” quences of your decisions,” Williams says. “With The vendor is holding a contest: $250 to anyone
After bypassing the NFL, in 2002, Williams grip, maybe I can be a pioneer. Maybe it takes who can hoist a weighted cone six inches in diam-
kept training. He toyed with the idea of entering someone like me to make it more respected, not eter. Williams approaches and asks what the
strongman events, but he didn’t want to dope, just a bunch of guys picking up weird stuff.” world record is. “Uh, 182 pounds,” answers the
and he knew this might diminish his chances of Liquid Grip rep, disinterested. The cone is a gam-
success. Still, he worked hard. “I just wanted to AFTER SHATTERING every world record in bit, a way to lure customers. No one is supposed
be as strong as I could possibly be,” he says. grip at the Arnold, Williams walks around the to actually lift the thing. Williams does—once,
In 2005, he took a position touring with Team packed expo collecting free supplement sam- twice, then again with more and more weight.
ples. He’s happy, but a little put out. Mighty Mitts “They were staring at me in shock,” he says later,
back at the DoubleTree Inn. “I ended up
doing 190 pounds. I could have done more
RARE IS THE MAN WHO if I hadn’t just gotten done competing.”
MOVES EVERYTHING HE Williams, showered and sitting on a
TOUCHES. “I’M STARTING lobby couch, says he gave some of his
TO REALIZE THERE unexpected $250 windfall to Henderson,
his roommate for the event. People don’t
AREN’T A LOT OF GUYS
realize, he explains, how hard these guys
OUT THERE LIKE ME.” train (15 to 20 hours a week) or how little
they earn (less than $6,000 annually).
Grip didn’t even start paying athletes
Impact, a traveling youth ministry. He served as a until the past few years. Not that it’s
strongman evangelist, tearing phone books in about the money. “I’m starting to realize
half and flattening frying pans, as evidence of there aren’t a lot of guys out there like
God’s power. “Bait,” he says, “to keep them on the me,” Williams says, laughing. And he’s
right path.” When he lost the job in 2009 due to right. Rare is the man who moves every-
budget cuts, Williams continued to train. “When I thing he touches. “My strength is part of
did two-a-days, I worked out like it was game day. my testimony, my goal to inspire.”
I still do. Training keeps my head on straight.” He says he is fiercer now than when he
It was while working out that grip competitor played football; he benches 620 pounds,
Tex Henderson spied Williams moving dumb- squats 1,100, and his resting heart rate is
bells around by the ends, palming them like bas- 54. It’s clear he owes a debt to his genes.
ketballs. As Henderson recalls, “He had no clue His father, now 60, is still roughly his size
that was unusual.” Williams assumed all strong- and nearly as strong. His mother benched
men had strong hands. “He didn’t realize that he 250 pounds in high school. When
was a super freak,” Henderson says. Together, Williams was 6, his dad introduced him to
Henderson and Sorin convinced Williams how a Mr. T weightlifting set. The two started
unique his hands are—once-in-a-century stuff. Nearly half the top 100 picks exercising together. They’d run six miles a
from the 2002 draft are still
Every weekday at 6 a.m., Williams goes to work cashing NFL checks—but how day. If Williams couldn’t continue, his
as an elementary school crossing guard. Then he’s many can rip open a soda can? father would hoist him atop his shoulders
off to his main job as an in-school supervisor, and keep running.
helping kids who may be struggling. After school, As he recounts the story, Williams’ eyes
he hits the gym, where he often waits hours for a competitors had been promised a purse of begin to mist. Embarrassed, he sniffs and says,
spotter big enough to cover his weight. And then $10,000, but after the event, a representative “My dream for myself? I want my son to tell his
it’s home to his wife and two children: Chelsea, his informed them that a sponsor had bailed, leav- children that his father was a man who never
14-year-old stepdaughter, and 5-year-old son ing the total haul at $5,000. So Williams earned gave up. A man who was strong.”
Xavier. Sometimes Rich will go see a movie or tin- $2,000 for winning, or half of what he was due. He wipes his eyes, and then it dawns on him.
ker around the house. It is a quiet, controlled life. “The Arnold folks should have stepped up and How simple it would have been to miss. How, if
He doesn’t watch football on television. He has made that right,” says Sorin. “Some of these guys he had made a different choice, if he had done
no favorite team. He doesn’t regret abandoning couldn’t even cover their travel expenses.” the expected thing, he could easily have lived
the NFL. And he kind of wishes people would On the expo floor, amid the bodybuilding his whole life in the dark, never knowing his
stop trying to make him feel bad about it. “At the tanners, extended razors and protein powders, own strength.

ESPN (ISSN # 1097-1998) (USPS # 016-356). Volume 14, No. 6, April 18, 2011. ESPN is published biweekly, except monthly in January and July, by ESPN, 19 East 34th St, New York, N.Y. 10016-4310. The subscription price is $26 for one year. Periodicals postage paid at
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