Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Topics
1- Oil Markets
2- Crude Oil Pricing
3- Refining
4- Refined Products Prices (Asia/AG)
5- LPG
6- Shipping
Oil Markets
30
25.9
25
20
15
10
0
77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03
Contango & Backwardation
Brent Crude Oil Prices
27
$/BBL
Dated Brent Current (Month 1)
Future (Month 2)
25
23
WHEN FUTURE
21 PRICE IS HIGHER
19
NWE
US
MED
ASIA
OIL MOVEMENT & TRADE PATHS
BRENT
WTI
DUBAI
Arbitrage
Demand
Naphtha Arbitrage (Japan/MED)
$21/MT
$228/MT
$177/MT $14/MT
$200/MT
$14 /MT
$30 /MT
– $5/MT
$200/MT
$177/MT
$176/MT $7/MT
$180/MT
$13 /MT
$29 /MT
5-Oct
7-Sep
14-Sep
21-Sep
28-Sep
12-Oct
19-Oct
26-Oct
US Total Crude Stocks (API) WTI Cushing Mth1
Topics
1- Oil Markets
2- Crude Oil Market
3- Refining
4- Refined Products Prices (Asia/AG)
5- LPG
6- Shipping
Crude Oil Market
• Posted Price:
– Set by Governments of Producing Countries
– Price Changes Infrequently & Varies by Producer
• Netback Price:
– Based on Product Prices Less Refining Fee
– Guaranteed Refiners a Positive Margin
• Market-Related Price:
– Related to Published Quotation of a Marker Crude
– Differentials Applied are Standard
– Refining Margins are not Protected
Crude Oil Value
Other Factors
• Refinery Type (Configuration)
• Paraffinic/Naphthenic
Oil Price Reporting
– Platt’s
– Petroleum Argus
PLATT'S CRUDE OIL MARKETWIRE VOL. 21 NO. 167 AUG 26, 1999
New York (Platt's)--26AUG99
• Sales Types:
– FOB Free On Board
– CIF Cargo, Insurance & Freight
– C&F Cargo & Freight
– Others Lightering, ex-ship, ex-storage, …
Saudi Arabia
8.40
8.30
8.20 8.20
8.10
8.00 8.02 8.00
8.00
7.90
7.80
7.60
7.40
7.20
7.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Saudi Arabia's
5-Year Crude Production Plan
(by Grade)
Million BBL/Day
9
5
Actual
4 ASL
AXL
3
AL
2
AM
1
AH
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Top 10 Oil Production -2002
9 Million BBL/Day
6
Saudi Arabia
5
Russia federation
4
TOTAL WORLD: 73.94 Million BBL/Day
USA
3
Mexico
Norway
2
Venezuela
China
Canada
Iran
UK
1
0 Source: BP * Production
Oil Production -2002
FSU Asia Pacific
11% 11%
Africa
10%
North America
Europe 19%
10%
Other
Americas
9% Middle East
30%
OECD
25%
Non-OPEC
42%
OPEC
33%
20
10
China
Japan
South Korea
Germany
Canada
Russia
France
India
Italy
0 Source: BP Amoco Statistical Review - 1999.
Oil Consumption - 2002
Europe
22%
Asia Pacific
27%
Other Americas
6%
Middle East
6%
FSU
5%
North America
31% Africa
3%
25
Million BBL/Day
US A
20
10
Japan
China
Saudi Arabia
Germany
S Korea
Canada
Russia
Canada
Ukrania
5
France
Mexico
Brazil
India
Italy
Spain
0 Source: BP Amoco Statistical Review - 1999.
Global Supply/Demand
Balance
2.0
Million BBL/Day
1.5
1.0
SURPLUS
0.5
0.0
1992 1993 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
-0.5
-1.0
DEFICIT
-1.5
-2.0
0
100
150
200
250
300
50
Saudi Arabia
264
Iraq
113
UAE
98
Kuwait
Iran
Venezuela
Russia
Libya
USA
2002
Mexico
China
Nigeria
Norway
Algeria
Kazakhstan
World Total: 1,034
Proven Oil Reserve by country
Brazil
Billion Barrel
Azerbaijan
Proven Oil Reserve by region
Reserve/Production Ratio 2002
100
Ye ars
90
87
80
70
60
50
40
41
30
20
10
0
N o rth Oth e r Eu ro p e Afri ca FS U As ia Mid d le Wo rld
Am e rica Am e rica s P a cific Ea s t Av e ra g e
Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC)
• Founded in Baghdad in
1960
• Objective:
To Coordinate and
Unify Policies Among
OPEC COUNTRIES:
the Members in Order
to Secure Fair and IRAN, IRAQ, KUWAIT, SAUDI
ARABIA, VENEZUELA, QATAR,
Stable Prices for INDONESIA, LIBYA, UAE,
Petroleum Producers ALGERIA, & NIGERIA
OPEC PRODUCTION LEVEL
30 40
Million BBL $/BBL
29
35
28
30
27
26
25
25 20
24
15
23
10
22
21
5
20 0
Apr 01 Jun 01 Aug 01 Oct 01 Dec 01 Feb 02 Apr 02 Jun 02 Aug 02 Oct 02 Dec 02 Feb 03
TOPICS
1- Oil Markets
2- Crude Oil Pricing
3- Refining
4- Refined Products Prices (Asia/AG)
5- LPG
6- Shipping
REFINING
Refined Products supply/demand figures are based on Purvin & Gertz report (March 2001 update)
World refining capacity date are based on BPAmoco Statistical Review - 1999
World Supply & Demand
Refined Products
2015
N a p h th a
2009
2007
Ga s o lin e
2005
2003 J e t/Ke ro
2001
Ga s o il
1999
1997
Fu e l Oil
Deficit 1995 Surplus
(1,500) (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Thousand BBL/Day
World Supply & Demand
Refined Products by Region
2015 Mi d d le
Ea s t
2009
FS U
2007
As i a
2005
Eu ro p e
2003
La ti n
Am e ric a
2001
Afric a
1999
Ca n a d a
1997
Net Net U n it e d
Importer 1995 Exporter S ta te s
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
North Ame rica Other Americas Europe Former Soviet Union Middle East Africa Asia Pacific
Refined Products Applications
• Climate Conditions
• Refinery Technology
• Environmental Issues
Regional Quality Variations
• Gasoline
– Lead-Free
– MTBE Concern
– Benzene Content
– Volatility
• Diesel
– 0.05% Sulfur
• Fuel Oil
– 1.0% Sulfur NORTH AMERICA
Regional Quality Variations
• Gasoline
– Lead-Free
– Benzene Content
– Following the US
• Diesel
– 0.05% Sulfur
• Fuel Oil
– 1.0% Sulfur
WESTERN EUROPE
Regional Quality Variations
• Gasoline
– Leaded/Unleaded
– MTBE
• Diesel
– 1.0 - 0.25% Sulfur
• Fuel Oil
– 4.0% Sulfur
ASIA/PACIFIC
TOPICS
1- Oil Markets
2- Crude Oil Pricing
3- Refining
4- Refined Products Prices (Asia/AG)
5- LPG
6- Shipping
REFINED PRODUCTS
(ASIA/Arab Gulf)
• Regional Products Balance
• Products Seasonality
• Spreads
• Refined Products Sales
• Refining Margins
Regional Products Balance -
2002
1.2
Million BBL/Da y
1.0
0.8
D EF ICIT
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Au s t ra lia
Ch in a
In dia
In don e s ia
J apan
Malay s ia
P akis t an
P h ilippin e s
Sin ga pore
S. Kore a
Taiw an
Th a ila n d
Vie t n am
Ot h e r
-0.2
-0.4
SU R P LUS
-0.6
LP G N a ph th a Moga s Ker ojet Diesel F u el Oil
Regional Products Balance -
2005
1.6
Million BBL/Da y
1.4
1.2
1.0
D EF ICIT
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Au s t ralia
Ch in a
In dia
In don e s ia
J apan
Malay s ia
P a kis t a n
P h ilippin e s
Sin g apo re
S. Kore a
Ta iw a n
Th ailan d
Vie t n am
Ot h e r
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
SUR P LU S
-0.8
LP G N aph th a Mogas Ker ojet Diesel F u el Oil
Refined Products Sales
• Naphtha
– Naphtha C&F Japan - Freight (Japan/AG) + Premium
• Jet
– Arab Gulf Jet Quotation + Premium
– Singapore Jet Quotation - Discount
• Gasoil
– Singapore Gasoil 0.5%S Quotation - Discount
– Arab Gulf Gasoil 0.5%S Quotation + Premium
– Quality Adjustment is Incorporated as Premium/Discount
Refined Products Sales
1000 Demand
800
600
400
200
0
LPG Naphtha Gasoline Kero/jet Diesel Fuel Oil
Saudi Arabia Products
Demand 1970-2010
600
For ec a s t
500
400
300
200
100
-
1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2007
LP G Na ph t h a Ga solin e Kero/jet Ga soil F u el Oil
TOPICS
1- Oil Markets
2- Crude Oil Pricing
3- Refining
4- Refined Products Prices (Asia/AG)
5- LPG
6- Shipping
World LPG Demand
Million MT 240
250
200
Ocea n ia
Africa
150
Middle E a st
110
F SU / E E u rope
100
La t in Am erica
West Eu rope
50 Asia
North Am erica
0
1985 1990 1995 1998 2000 2005
World LPG Demand
70 Millio n MT
60
1985 2005
50
40
30
20
10
0
N o rth As ia We s t La tin F S U / E Mid d le Afric a Oc e a n ia
Am e ric a Eu ro p e Am e ric a Eu ro p e Ea s t
Asian LPG Demand
70 Million MT
60
50
40
In dian
30 Su bcon tin en t
Sou th east
20 Asia
F ar East
10
0
1990 1995 1997 1998 2000 2002 2005
Asian LPG Demand
by End-Use
Million MT
70
60
50 Town Gas
40 Ch emicals
30 En gin e F u el
20 In du str ial
10 Residen tial/
Commer cia l
0
1990 1995 1997 1998 2000 2002 2005
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
Japan
Ma la y s ia
Ko re a
Ta iw a n
Kilo gram s LP G p e r Ca p ita
S in g a p o re
Th a ila n d
P h ilip p in e s
Ch in a
In d ia
Residential/Commercial
Asian LPG Demand
In d o n e s ia
P a k is ta n
Asian LPG Import
Millio n MT
35
30 Ot h er F a r
E a st
25
In dia n
Su bcon tin en t
20
Ch in a
15
10 Korea
5
J a pa n
0
1990 1995 1997 1998 2000 2002 2005
Major LPG Exporters
Million MT
80 75
70
58 F SU
60 53
L Am erica
50 46
40 Au st ra lia
40 S E Asia
27 Ca n a da
30
Nort h Sea
20
25.6
29.6 Africa
23.6 22.1
10 19.6
12.5 Middle E a st
0
1985 1990 1995 1998 2000 2005
Middle East LPG Exports
Millio n MT
30
25
Ba h ra in
20 Om a n
Ira q
15
Ira n
Qa ta r
10
Ku wa it
14.3 13.8 13.0
12.4 11.0
5 U.A.E .
7.9
Sa u di Ara bia
0
1985 1990 1995 1998 2000 2005
Local Petrochemical Demand
Local Petrochemical Demand
12 Million MT/Year
10
8
PROPANE
6
4 BUTANE
2
NG
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
TOPICS
1- Oil Markets
2- Crude Oil Pricing
3- Refining
4- Refined Products Prices (Asia/AG)
5- LPG
6- Shipping
SHIPPING
• Tanker Types
• Freight Calculations
AFRA
Coastal Tankers
Aframax
Suez-max
VLCC
ULCC
AFRA
Freight =
Worldscale x AFRA