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01 DEBT DISTRIBUTION
02 BONDS
03 INCOME STATEMENT
04 CASH FLOW
05 BALANCE SHEET
06 COVERAGE RATIOS
07 LEVERAGE RATIOS
08 ENTERPRISE VALUE
09 RETURN ON CAPITAL
e-mail darpa@zerohedge.com 10 RECOVERY & TANGIBLE NET WORTH
blog www.zerohedge.com 11 ACCOUNTING RED FLAGS
13 LEGAL DISCLAIMER
BAY LN Equity
The distribution of this report is restricted. Important information concerning these restrictions and legal disclaimer is set forth at the end of this report.
01 British Airways PLC www.zerohedge.com
facility
amount
issuer Rtg debt type & details coupon mat crncy amount issue date
out (mm)
(mm)
l BRITISH AIRWAYS NA Loan, secured, term, floater 1/31/2011 JPY 75,000 9/1/2005
l BRITISH AIRWAYS NA Loan, secured, term, floater 10/26/2012 USD 1,615 10/26/2007
DEBT DISTRIBUTION
Total amount out of instruments listed above (GBP in MM) 0 Cash (MM) 1,381
Total debt (MM) 3,763 Total Number of Debt Instruments (for the issuer and its subs) 4
Loans Bonds
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
>2032
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
bond price
120
15360Z US 8-K
2182Z US 42 60
24069Z US
3020A US 10-Q 40
32677Z US 10-K
20
3274Z US 8-K
3304Q US 42..
0
343226Z US
07
07
07
07
07
07
08
08
08
08
08
08
09
09
09
09
09
45226Z US alternat.
9/
9/
9/
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01
03
05
07
09
11
01
03
05
07
09
11
01
03
05
07
09
4732Z US
558319Q US yield
618174Q US
18
16
14
12
BRITISH AIRWAYS
8.75% 8/2016 GBP 10
0
07
07
07
07
07
07
08
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09
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09
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01
03
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07
09
11
01
03
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07
09
11
01
03
05
07
09
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
07
07
07
07
07
07
08
08
08
08
08
08
09
09
09
09
09
9/
9/
9/
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01
03
05
07
09
11
01
03
05
07
09
11
01
03
05
07
09
Prices & yields bid side to 28/7/08 and ask side thereafter. Spread is Govt Bid Sprd to 28/7/08 and Interpol. Swap Ask Sprd then.
03 British Airways PLC www.zerohedge.com
GBP in millions Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
09/30/09 03/31/09
Revenues 2,495 2,292 1,946 1,983 2,119 8,213 8,492 8,758 8,992
COGS
COGS % of Revenues
Net Income -76 -78 -248 -106 -111 451 290 712 -375
18.0%
17.6%
17.4%
16.9%
14.5%
14.3%
10.1%
8.2%
7.9%
7.7%
7.4%
5.4%
4.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.3%
Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
GBP in millions Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
09/30/09 03/31/09
TTM INCOME STATEMENT
TTM Revenues 9,051 9,177 8,992 8,716 8,340 8,213 8,492 8,758 8,992
TTM EBITDA 1,392 1,492 1,577 669
TTM D&A 717 834 692 694
TTM EBIT 675 658 885 -25
TTM Net Income 153 -70 -375 -508 -543 451 290 712 -375
TTM Revenues
TTM Revenues TTM EBITDA
EBITDA
9,177
1,577
1,492
9,051
8,992
8,992
1,392
8,758
8,716
8,492
8,340
8,213
669
0
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
692
717 834
175
09/30/09 03/31/09
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
-200 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
-400
GBP in millions Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
09/30/09 03/31/09
TTM Free Cash Flow (CFO + CFI) 320 792 261 -124
TTM Capex TTM D&A TTM Cash from Invest. (CFI) TTM EBITDA - Capital Expenditures
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-78
-162
-275
1,161
-331
-379
1,117
-547
-596
981
-692
-694
-717
-834
-1119
122
0 0 0 0 0
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 06 07 08 09
-200
05 British Airways PLC www.zerohedge.com
GBP in millions Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
09/30/09 03/31/09
Cash Conversion Cycle #N/A N.A. #N/A N.A. #N/A N.A. #N/A N.A.
75% of Accounts Receivable 30% of Inventories & Unbill. Rec. Working Capital
10% of Net Fixed Assets
234
0 0 0 0 0
-194
788
736 -381
726 723
25 23
34 38
514 491 440 398
0 0 0 0 0 -1,796
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
3,763
3,346
3,174
2,382
1,641
1,310
991
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
107.7%
96.5%
92.3%
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
06 British Airways PLC www.zerohedge.com
GBP in millions Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
COVERAGE RATIOS
09/30/09 03/31/09
8.3x
7.8x
4.8x
4.2x
6.0x
3.5x
3.3x 2.2x
0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
6.0x 3.4x
3.2x
5.2x 2.9x
4.8x
0.8x
0.6x
0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
07 British Airways PLC www.zerohedge.com
GBP in millions Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
09/30/09 03/31/09
NET DEBT / TTM EBITDA TOTAL DEBT / TTM EBITDA TOTAL DEBT / TTM EBITDA-CAPEX
3.6x 30.8x
1.2x
0.8x
0.7x 5.6x
3.7x
2.9x 2.9x 3.2x
2.2x 2.0x
0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x 0.0x
0.0x 0.0x
0.0x 0.0x
0.0x 0.0x
0.0x 0.0x
0.0x
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
HAIRCUT EBITDA MULTIPLE / TOTAL DEBT Rentadj. TOT DEBT / TTM EBITDAR
Rentadj. TOT DEBT / TTM EBITDAR-CAPEX
156.5%
17.3x
140.5%
107.4%
56.0%
6.1x
4.4x 4.0x
3.6x 3.7x
3.0x 2.6x
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
6.0x
5.1x
3.6x
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
08 British Airways PLC www.zerohedge.com
GBP in millions Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
09/30/09 03/31/09
ENTERPRISE VALUE
Equity Market Cap 1,940 2,073 1,624 1,439 2,544 3,995 5,597 2,701 1,624
EV / TTM EBITDA
EV / TTM EBIT
6.3x
10.3x
8.7x
4.5x
4.2x
2.7x
4.8x
5,597
3,995
3,442
1,768
2,701
443
1,037
2,544
2,073
1,940
1,624 1,624
4,081
1,439
3,763
3,346
3,174
0
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Mär/00
Mär/01
Mär/02
Mär/03
Mär/04
Mär/05
Mär/06
Mär/07
Mär/08
Mär/09
Sep/00
Sep/01
Sep/02
Sep/03
Sep/04
Sep/05
Sep/06
Sep/07
Sep/08
Sep/09
Dez/99
Dez/00
Dez/01
Dez/02
Dez/03
Dez/04
Dez/05
Dez/06
Dez/07
Dez/08
Jun/00
Jun/01
Jun/02
Jun/03
Jun/04
Jun/05
Jun/06
Jun/07
Jun/08
Jun/09
09 British Airways PLC www.zerohedge.com
GBP in millions Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
09/30/09 03/31/09
10.2%
8.6%
3.3%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
WACD (Pre-tax)
6.0%
5.7% 5.7%
5.4%
Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
10
DEFAULT ESTIMATE British Airways PLC www.zerohedge.com
Although we acknowledge that the calculated results are by no means exact, we think they make for a good estimate in the valuation of credit structures when individual
default and recovery rates for single issuers are to be used.
GBP in millions Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
TANGIBLE NET WORTH ESTIMATE
09/30/09 03/31/09
Rent Debt (8x Annual Rental Expense) 1,416 1,416 1,416 1,416 1,416 1,816 1,688 1,392 1,416
Underfunded Pension & Post Ret. Liab. -1,501 -1,294 722 -601
Adjusted Tangible Net Worth -1,416 -1,416 -1,416 -1,416 -1,416 -8,799 -7,621 -4,391 -7,169
11 British Airways PLC www.zerohedge.com
GBP in millions Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 06 07 08 09
09/30/09 03/31/09
yoy Revenue Growth 10.3% 5.8% -8.7% -12.2% -15.1% 5.7% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7%
Gross Margin
Unbilled Receivables - - - - - - - - -
15.0%
10.0% 12%
12%
10%
9%
10.3%
5.0% 7% 7%
7%
5.8%
5.7%
3.0%
2.8%
3.4%
3.1%
2.7%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0.0%
-1.7%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
-8.7%
-12.2%
-5.0%
-3%
-15.1%
-10.0%
-15.0%
-20.0%
5
5
4
4
4
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Auditor Information:
Not Audited / Unaudited No tests were performed to verify amounts in financial statements. Typically applied to interim statement.
Partially audited Not all statements were audited. Auditor may specifically give opinion on one or two statements.
Unqualified Auditor declares, without reservation, that the financial statements fairly represent the company's financial position at
a point in time and that the statements conform in all material respects to GAAP.
Qualified: Limited Scope An aspect of the company's financial statements could not be verified, such as a portion of inventory not counted.
Qualified: Inconsistent Standards Accounting standards were not applied consistently between periods.
Qualified: not GAAP Standard accounting principles for the country were not followed. Typically related to a unique line item and uses the
phrase 'except for.'
Qualified: uncertainty Doubt exists related to a material balance sheet item, such as value of investment or collectability of major
receivable; or auditor doubts going concern ability of company. This opinion usually employs the phrase 'subject to.'
Disclaimer Auditor refuses to state opinion on financial statements, typically due to lack of sufficient documentation provided by
company and/or subsidiaries.
12
LATEST SEC FILINGS British Airways PLC www.zerohedge.com
Annual and transition report of foreign private issuers (Form Type 20-F) end of period
This research report was prepared by HIGHYIELDBLOG. The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions
herein are based upon, sources believed to be reliable, but HIGHYIELDBLOG does not represent that it is accurate or
complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions, forecasts and estimates herein reflect our judgement on the
date of this report and are subject to change without notice.
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