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Kaplan wrote a moving article advocating that criminal anarchy has emerged as the real

“strategic” danger threatening Nation-states and future securities. Kaplan’s conclusion is based

on the works of specialists, and his own personal travel experiences, witnessing examples of

environmental scarcity, cultural and racial clashes, geographical density, and the transformation

of war (criminal anarchy)1. I agree that criminal anarchy is a concern, a valid threat, and an issue

that threatens stability; however, I intend to argue that criminal anarchy is a by-product of the

listed causes, and that criminal anarchy can be mitigated, marginalized, or contained.

Kaplan identifies West Africa as a microcosm for coming world trends, and created a

template to apply to multiple regions of the world. He illustrates examples of natural resource

harvesting at unprecedented rates and quantities. These harvest rates produce devastating results

in erosion, pollution, deforestation, and environmental scarcity. He suggests that nature has been

pushed to its limits, and “is beginning to strike back”2. The idea of nature beginning to strike

back creates a vivid picture of retribution; however, Kaplan fails to provide examples, or

evidence of these incidents.

Nature is not striking back, nor can it: The notion of striking back is a classic example of

anthropomorphism; henceforth, Kaplan’s inability to provide evidence of Nature planning and

executing retribution-like strikes at mankind. Nature is simply adhering to its cyclic processes,

and humans are caught in the middle. The average lifespan for humans in industrial nations is 77

years3, and the weather cycles of nature typically last between 500 and 1,000 years4. Humans

have, generally, accepted the notion that we are the cause of the weather patterns, and tend to

1
Robert D. Kaplan, “The Coming Anarchy” (The Atlantic Monthly, February 1994) 44-78; excerpt
reprinted in US Army Command and General Staff College, C100 Book of Readings (Fort Leavenworth, KS:
USACGSC, August 2010)
2
Ibid., 78
3
E. Arias, “United States Life Tables, 2001,” National Vital Statistic Reports 52, no. 14 (2004): table 11.
4
Dilley, “First Stage of Global Cooling Will Begin During 2008-2009.” Global Weather Oscillations Inc.,
http://www.globalweathercycles.com/PressRelease122007.html (accessed August 28, 2010).

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look at current weather events, or natural disasters with a cause and effect lens. If an area suffers

flooding that is caused by erosion from deforestation, I submit that it is Nature’s attempt to

correct actions that have taken place. A rise in criminal anarchy in severely affected regions are

merely results of natural events; henceforth, the by-product of nature cleansing itself. Time and

nature’s cyclic phases are the culprits, not environmental scarcity, that could inflame cultural and

racial clashes5.

According to Kaplan, immanent cultural and racial clashes involving Hindu, Muslim,

Slavic Orthodox, Western, Japanese, Confucian, Latin American, and African cultures is

inherent, as if it could not be prevented. Kaplan even goes as far to suggest the possible clashes

in America between African-American and Latino cultures.6 Kaplan expands the West Africa

template to include the violence between the middle-class and urban criminals, and places it on

areas like North American, the Middle East, and Asia. Applying this this technique enables one

to make a significant argument for the pending anarchy-like clashes between like peoples and

their proximity to neighboring peoples with different culture and racial biases. The article lends

credence to the idea that Nation states will be ineffective at controlling this criminal anarchy;

therefore, losing the ability to protect its people, and eventually failing and dissolving as a state.

This is applicable in theory, if every nation practiced the policy of isolationism. In truth

we live in a globally, interconnected world, and Nation states cooperate to mitigate the cultural

and racial biases that exist to reduce the influence of criminal groups (Nonstate actors).

President Barack Obama addresses this concept in his preface to the National Security Strategy,

May 2010:

We must also build and integrate the capabilities that can advance our interests, and the
interests we share with other countries and peoples. Our Armed Forces will always be

5
Kaplan, 81
6
Ibid., 82

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the cornerstone of our security, but they must be complimented. Our security also
depends upon diplomats who can act in every corner of the world, from grand capitals to
dangerous outposts; development experts who can strengthen governance and support
human dignity; and intelligence and law enforcement that can unravel plots, strengthen
justice systems, and work seamlessly with other countries.7

Although, Nonstate actors can exert tremendous local pressures, and project global influence,

their criminal anarchy is still just a by-product of existing cultural and racial biases, and Nation

state actors remain postured to mitigate, marginalize, and contain their effectiveness and

capabilities. The remaining points, or factors, in Kaplan’s point of view can be effectively

combined and addressed together: Geographical density and the transformation of war.

The migration from agrarian to urban areas is a real situation that is leading to the

geographical density issues that Kaplan refers to. Existing urban areas cannot meet the needs of

the influx of people, and the migrants are forced to construct shantytowns. These shanty towns

are a host to various numbers of serious issues: Waste, disease, hunger, potable water shortages,

and other contributors to humanitarian crises8. According to Kaplan, these conditions are primed

for the assembly of similar peoples that will use violence to obtain their needs, and to protect

themselves from other organized groups of like people. These subnational skirmishes will make

it difficult for local governments to protect its citizens. The general populace will realize the

state’s inability to protect their needs, and the transition of war will begin as Nation states shift

their focus from fighting other Nation states to fighting tribal factions.

Several studies have been conducted on the human migration from agrarian to urban

areas, and the data suggests a need to adapt methods to cope with rising geographical density.

This is the reason Nation states and Nongovernmental Organizations (NGOs) develop plans on

7
President Barack Obama, Preface to National Defense Strategy May 2010, 1,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf (accessed August 28, 2010)
8
Kaplan, 85

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how to deal with, and feed 101 million people in more than 75 countries9 . Nation states spend

enormous amounts of money to contend with urban development, and outreach programs to

assist lesser developed countries. These measures are an effective way to mitigate and

marginalize the rise of criminal activity in different areas, and reassure the local populace that

their respective Nation state is capable of supporting their needs and concerns.

Additionally, Kaplan makes his own counter-argument for a major contributor to the

marginalization of criminal activity: Religion. Kaplan attempts to place his West Africa

template on the shanytowns of Ankara, Turkey. The shantytown construct was similar to West

African shantytowns, there were issues with floods, and crowdedness; however, crime against

persons was infinitesimal in the Turkish shantytown10. Why? Religion, Islam in this instance, is

the cultural cement for the shantytown’s inhabitants11. Religion provides the basis for common

accepted law between all the citizens in that culture. Conversely, the West African shantytown

operated without a defined religion, (e.g. Christianity, Islam, Confucianism, etc…). The

traditional African-tribal culture has been infused with a bastardization of Christianity and Islam,

and the void does not provide a clear set of norms accepted by the people.

All of Kaplan’s contributing factors, environmental scarcity, cultural and racial clashes,

geographical density, and the transformation of war, create conditions conducive to the rise of

criminal anarchy. The Nation states have identified this potential threat, and have developed

substantial countermeasures to mitigate, marginalize, or contain the threat. Nation states and

NGOs develop, fund, and implement programs such as The World Food Program, The

International Red Cross and Crescent, and other legitimate agencies. In doing so, leveraging

9
World Food Program, 2009 Annual Report, 12, chart 1,
http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/communications/wfp220666.pdf (accessed August 28,
2010)
10
Kaplan, 83
11
Ibid.

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countermeasures to criminal anarchy, and preventing its spread. These are effective means for

the Nation state to provide basic necessities to the populace without an indenture to the provider.

This is powerful when it comes to keeping the populace from depending on criminal anarchists

to support their needs.

Perhaps the most obtuse approach to criminal anarchy is containment. Containment is a

viable solution so long as it does not spill into unwanted areas, and is even more acceptable if the

area of concern is further away from economic trade or national interests. Several Nation states

may work in unison to ensure containment, or allow the status-quo to remain until economic or

national interests are threatened (i.e. Somalia’s piracy activities).

Criminal anarchy is a reality that Nation states must contend with; however it is a by-

product of combining environmental scarcity, cultural and racial clashes, geographic density, and

the transformation of war. Criminal anarchy is a valid threat to the security of Nation states, and

possesses the ability to upset the balance of stability in underdeveloped regions of the world.

Even with the noted validity and the implications of its overall impacts, criminal anarchy can be,

and is, mitigated, marginalized, and contained through solo efforts and well-developed

coalitions. These coalitions are the tools Nation states will use to retain their ability to protect its

populace, retain its relevance, and keep criminal anarchy in check.

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Bibliography
Kaplan, Robert D. “The Coming Anarchy” (The Atlantic Monthly, February 1994) 44-78;
excerpt reprinted in US Army Command and General Staff College, C100 Book of Readings
(Fort Leavenworth, KS: USACGSC, August 2010)

Note:
3
Arias, Elizabeth Ph.D., National Vital Statistics Report 52, no. 14 (2004): table 11,
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr52/nvsr52_14.pdf
4
Dilley, David “First Stage of Global Cooling Will Begin During 2008-2009.” Global Weather
Oscillations Inc., http://www.globalweathercycles.com/PressRelease122007.html (accessed
August 28, 2010).
7
President Barack Obama, Preface to National Defense Strategy May 2010, 1,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/rss_viewer/national_security_strategy.pdf
(accessed August 28, 2010)
9
World Food Program, 2009 Annual Report, 12, chart 1,
http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/communications/wfp220666.pdf
(accessed August 28, 2010)