Morning Note 18 APRIL 2011

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DATA MATRIX OF LAST SESSION FIRST LIGHT HEADINGS

INDEX Close %Chg

Sensex 19387 -1.57
Nifty 5825 -1.47
Midcap 7209 -0.21
Smallcap 8808 -0.17

VALUE TRADED (Rs Crs) %Chg

BSE 3760 10.78 MARKET INSIGHT
NSE 15127 16.15 On Friday 15 April 2011, Indian benchmarks, after another one-day break, failed to recreate
F& O Total 127608 -3.73 Wednesday's performance and took a nasty blow of around one and half a percent on the back of
Total Volume 146495 -1.66 dreadful local leads. The flavor of a hectic earning season turned bitter right from the very start as the
frontline indices took a blow as bellwether Infosys reported below expected quarterly earnings and
NET INFLOWS (Rs Crs) %Chg gave even lower than expected EPS guidance for FY12 which weighed heavily on the market
FIIs (253) -1112.00 sentiments. Just when the resilient market looked to stabilize the momentum and form a base to
DIIs (361) 7120.00 recoup the losses, the government released scary March month inflation numbers which spiraled to
8.98% from 8.31% in the previous month, casting a gloomy shadow over the economy's outlook.
FII OPEN INTEREST (Crs) %Chg
Initially the selling pressure was seen only in blue chip stocks but post the inflation numbers market
FII Index Futures 17242 -0.73
participants went for broad based selling and took profits off the table from the midcap and small cap
FII Index Options 46634 -1.40
counters as well. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, settled with close to triple digit
FII Stock Futures 32463 -0.58
losses, above the crucial 5,800 support level while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex
FII Stock Options 630 13.11
shaved off around three hundred points to close a tad below the psychological 19,400 mark.
World Indices %Chg BSE Sensex plunged by 310.04 points or 1.57% to settle at 19,386.82 while the S&P CNX Nifty lost
Dow Jones 12342 0.58 86.95 points or 1.47% to end at 5,824.55. The BSE Mid-cap and Small-cap indices fell by 0.20% and
Nasdaq 2765 0.11 0.17%, respectively. On the sectoral front, the IT pack got clobbered out of shape and deposed
FTSE 100 5996 -0.25 6.40% and languished at the bottom of the table because of a 9.59% laceration in bellwether Infosys.
Real estate pocket too witnessed hefty bouts of profit booking and plummeted 1.22% while auto
Commodity %Chg
index settled with a marginal gain of 0.12% and grab the top gainer's position in the BSE sectoral
Crude (US$/bl) 123.7 1.42
space while gains in some Capital Goods and Consumer Durable stocks too propelled the
Gold (US$/oz) 1487.8 1.83
respective counters marginally above their previous closing levels.
Top 5 Movers Close Price %Chg ? On the global front, majority of Asian equity indices finished in the negative terrain on last trading
HEROHONDA 1841 6.1 day of the week as China's inflation numbers climbed again and raised fears among investors that
DRREDDY 1656.8 1.27 the government will step up efforts to curb inflation. Only the Chinese and Hong Kong's markets
BAJAJ-AUTO 1414.9 1.15 managed to close in the positive terrain. The European markets after starting on a positive note
BHARTIARTL 371 0.97 have turned mixed as France's CAC dipped marginally into the red zone while the Germany's
JPASSOCIAT 99.1 0.92 DAX and Britain's FTSE 100 have managed to keep their head above the water and are trading with
moderate gains. On the other hand, the screen trading for US index futures indicated that the Dow
Top 5 Loser Close Price %Chg could open in the red terrain.
INFOSYSTCH 2980.7 -9.85
?India's headline inflation jumped sharply and unexpectedly in March as prices in the
WIPRO 448.5 -5.06
manufacturing space continue rising at a rapid pace even as prices of food commodities, which
SIEMENS 851.65 -4.35
have been main driver of inflation till January, seem to be easing. According to the latest data
DLF 243.2 -3.2
released by the government, headline inflation in the country stood at 8.98% in March 2011 against
HCLTECH 482.05 -3.07
8.31% in the previous month.

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Morning Note
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MARKET OUTLOOK- CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC

TODAY'S MARKET LEVELS

Index Support 2 Support 1 Previous Close Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Trend
SENSEX 19130 19260 19387 19400 19530 Rangebound
NIFTY 5760 5790 5824.55 5860 5910 Rangebound

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS: After another one-day break market failed to recreate Wednesday's performance and took a nasty blow of
around one and half a percent on the back of dreadful local leads. During the week, S&P CNX Nifty touched both the highest level of 5923.60 and
the lowest point of 5735.55 on April 13, 2011. On the last trading day, the Nifty closed at 5824.55, with a weekly loss of 17.45 points or 0.30%. For
the coming week 5732.2 followed by 5639.85 are likely to be good support levels for the Nifty, while the index may face some resistance at 5920.25
and 6015.95 levels.
FAVORED SCENARIO: Remember we have said that any break out above 5670-5690 could shift the momentum in to bulls favor and we might
see some sharp moves near to 5850. Exactly to our expectation spot index rallied and touched the crucial level of 5872 where we expect a major
resistance zone (5945-5960). At current juncture we expect the same scenario in the upcoming sessions though possibility of profit booking
around 5945-60 couldn’t be rule out. Any closing above this level with substantial volumes for at least 2 consecutive days may generate
another 2-3% return and we might see 6070-6080 in the current series.
VARIED SCENARIO: On the flip side any negative outcome from global side particularly from Middle East Asia may dampens the current
euphoria. Moreover after a strong run from 5376 to 5944 ,technical indicators also shown some over bought conditions in near term.
Therefore possibility of minor retracement near to 5550-5570 could be on higher side however any correction should be used to create fresh
long positions. . HAPPY TRADING......

Index Support 2 Support 1 Previous Close Resistance 1 Resistance 2 Trend

BANK NIFTY 11580 11620 11736 11800 11930 Rangebound

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Morning Note
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INTRA DAY TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

Scrip CMP Buy Near Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2 Trend

ANDHRACEMT 15.45 15.25 15 15.5 15.75 Rangebound

Scrip CMP Buy Near Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2 Trend

JUMBO 26.6 26.4 26 26.8 27.2 Rangebound

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Morning Note
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INTRA DAY TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

Scrip CMP Buy Near Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2 Trend

AMLSTEEL 20.2 19.5 19 20 20.5 Rangebound

Scrip CMP Sell Near Stop Loss Target 1 Target 2 Trend

PERIATEA 190.1 193 196 190 185 Rangebound

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Morning Note
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Pashupati Nath Jha Research Analyst pashupatinathjha@moneysukh.com
Vikram Singh Research Analyst vikram_research@moneysukh.com

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