Global Warming

MythBusters

Webinar
on
Science
Fact
&
Science
Fic'on

Featuring
Professor
Brian
Soden,


IPCC
Author


 Agenda


•  General
discussion
of
scien=fic
credibility


•  Common
myths
about
climate
change




•  Ques=ons
&
Answers



Sponsored
by
the
Florida
Business
Network
for
a
Clean
Energy
Economy

 Introduc=on

Dr.
Jude
Grosser

University
of
Florida

Citrus
Research
–
Plant
Cell
Gene=cs



•  ACack
on
science?

•  What
is
Peer‐Reviewed?

•  Does
100%
certainty

exist?


 
Dr.
Brian
Soden

•  Professor
of
Meteorology
and
Physical
Oceanography

•  Rosens=el
School
for
Marine
and
Atmospheric

Science,
University
of
Miami


•  Lead
Author
for
the
Intergovernmental
Panel
on

Climate
Change,
WGI/AR4

•  Climate
change

Intergovernmental
Panel
on
Climate
Change

2007
IPCC
Report

•  Started
2004

•  Completed
February
2007

•  152
Authors

•  ~450
contributors

•  ~600
expert
reviewers

•  30,000+
review
comments


Contents

•  Summary
for
Policymakers

•  Technical
Summary

•  11
Chapters

•  Frequently
Asked
QuesNons

•  ~5000
literature
references

•  ~1000
pages

 The IPCC Sequence of Findings
IPCC (1990) “The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect
from observations is not likely for a decade or more.”

IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence (>50%) suggests a discernible

human influence on global climate.”

IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (>66%) to be
attributable to human activities.”

IPCC (2007)
 Actual 1995-2000 observations

… one of the most important outcomes of your study

could be a clear statement of our present ignorance. That
in itself should indicate the need for contingency plans.

- Panel Respondent
 The IPCC Sequence of Findings

IPCC (1990) “The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect

from observations is not likely for a decade or more.”

IPCC (1995) “The balance of evidence (>50%) suggests a discernible

human influence on global climate.”

IPCC (2001) “Most of the warming of the past 50 years is likely (>66%) to be
attributable to human activities.”

IPCC (2007) “Warming is unequivocal, and most of the warming of the past
50 years is very likely (>90%) due to increases in greenhouse gases.”
 Myth
#1

Its
not
warming


SkepNc
Argument
 Response

There
are
problems
with
the
data
 • 
Globally,
the
temperature
has
warmed

record,
“urban
heat
island”
effects,
the
 by
~1.5
F
since
1880.

data
show
no
warming,
the
data
are

fudged,
etc.
 • 
Temperature
records
with
urbaniza=on

effects
are
removed.




• 
Largest
warming
is
in
remote
regions
–

Arc=c,
Canada,
Siberia
–
not
urban
areas


• 
Consistent
indica=ons
of
warming
in

other
non‐instrumental
records.


• 
Evidence
for
warming
is
unequivocal.

 The World Has
Warmed

•  Globally averaged, the planet is

about 0.8°C (~1.5°F) warmer than it
was in 1880.
•  Eleven of the last 12 years are
among the 12 warmest since 1880.
 Consistent Patterns of Warming
•  Mountain glaciers are retreating
•  Arctic sea ice is decreasing
•  Greenland is melting
•  Snow/permafrost decreasing
•  Sea level is rising
•  Ocean heat content is increasing
•  More intense droughts
•  Atmospheric moisture increasing
•  Heavier rainfall events
•  Increased heat waves

WARMING IS UNEQUIVOCAL
 Myth
#
2


“But
the
globe
is
cooling!”


SkepNc
Argument
 Response

Global
warming
stopped
a
decade
ago.

 • 
Climate
change
is
recorded
over
long

The
earth
is
actually
cooling.

 periods
of
=me
(at
least
30
years)


• 
Trends
occur
over
a
longer
period
of

=me
than
just
10
years.




• 
The
experts
show
no
cooling
trend
and

in
fact
the
opposite
is
actually
occurring

(e.g.,
warming
trend).



Observed and Predicted Changes in Global Temperature

Observations

Climate
Model
Predictions

We don’t expect each year to be warmer than the previous one.

 Myth
#
3


“It
was
freezing
this
winter.
That
proves
global
warming
is
wrong”


SkepNc
Argument
 Response

2010
was
one
of
the
coldest
winters
on
 • 
Globally,
2010
was
the
5th
warmest

record
for
Florida
and
SE
US.

 winter
(DJF)
on
record.

• 
Big
difference
between
climate
and

weather.


• 
Natural
fluctua=ons
can
cause
local,

year‐to‐year
varia=ons
in
temperature.


• 
The
signal
of
global
warming
emerges

from
this
background
noise
on
larger

space
and
=me
scales:
decade
to
decade

changes
in
global
temperature.

 Myth
#4


OK,
but
mankind
is
not
causing
the
warming


SkepNc
Argument
 Response

Climate
change
is
happening,
but
it
is
a
 • 
There
are
natural
changes
in
climate,


natural
phenomenon.

Mankind
is
not
 e.g.,
ice
ages,
etc.
But
…


impac=ng
climate.

The
climate
has

changed
before
man
existed,
so
this
 • The
changes
we
are
seeing
now
are

must
be
natural.
 much
more
rapid
than
anything
that

we’ve
seen
naturally.






• 
Natural
causes
of
climate
change
(sun,

volcanoes,
orbital
changes,
plate

tectonics)
can’t
explain
the
warming.


• The
observed
warming
is
consistent

with
the
measured
increase
in
carbon

dioxide
and
other
GHGs.



 Evidence for Human Caused Climate Change
Temperature Change (oF)

The rate of warming over the

past century is unusual.

1000 1250 1500 1750 2000

CO2 Concentration (ppb)

The rapid warming coincides

with increasing carbon dioxide.

1000 1250 1500 1750 2000

Carbon Emissions

Carbon Emissions from Human Activity

The increasing carbon dioxide
is due to human activities,
primarily burning fossil fuels.
1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
 Myth
#
5:


You
forgot
about
the
sun


SkepNc
Argument
 Response

• 
We
can
measure
solar
radia=on
output

If
the
earth
is
warming,
then
it
is
 and
how
it
changes
temperature.

because
of
increases
in
solar
output.


• 
In
the
last

50
years
of
global
warming,

Solar
radia=on
is
probably
one
of
the
 the
sun
has
shown
a
slight
cooling
trend.

most
important
determinants
of
global
 • 

The
current
rise
in
temperatures

warming.


 cannot
be
explained
by
changes
in
solar

output
alone.

When
there
is
more
output,
our
climate

warms.

Less
output,
our
climate
cools.
 • 
Most
warming
is
occurring
at
night,
not

day=me.


• 
Stratosphere
is
cooling
while
surface

warms.
This
is
inconsistent
with
a
solar/
volcano
explana=on.

Changes in solar activity contributed to the warming in the first half of the
20th Century, but can NOT explain the warming observed since the1950s.
Comparison
of
Modeled
and
Observed
Temperature


 Myth
#
6:


It’s
a
Natural
Cycle,
like
El
Nino
and
La
Nina?


SkepNc
Argument
 Response

Mankind
is
not
responsible
for
global
 • 
El
Nino
and
La
Nina
happen
on
very

warming.

These
are
just
natural
cycles
 short
=me
scales
(2‐3
years).

They
can

like
El
Nino.
They
happen
all
the
=me.
 not
explain
long
term
warming
trends.

There
is
nothing
we
can
do
about
it

• 
Other
uniden=fied
“natural
cycles”
are

just
specula=on,
not
science.

Pause
for
Ques=ons

 Myth
#
7


“There
is
no
scien=fic
consensus.”


SkepNc
Argument
 Response

I
read
a
pe==on
that
showed
thousands
 • 
Over
97%
of
experts*
(scien=sts
who

of
scien=sts
in
opposi=on
to
global
 ac=vely
engage
in
research
on
climate

warming.
 change)
believe
that
the
climate
has

warmed
and
that
humans
are

responsible
for
most
of
the
warming

over
the
past
50
years.



• 
Pe==ons
claiming
otherwise
are
bogus.



• 
If
you’re
s=ll
a
big
fan
of
pe==ons
and

conspiracy
theories,
you
should
like

www.911truth.org


* 2009 survey by Univ. of Illinois

 ScienNfic
Consensus

The National Academy of Sciences:

“The scientific understanding of climate change is

now sufficiently clear…(we urge) prompt action to
reduce the causes of climate change.” 2005
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:
“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to
the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations.” 2007

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Ecological Society of America Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
American Society of Plant Biologists Botanical Society of America
American Geophysical Union American Meteorological Society
American Geophysical Union
American Statistical Association American Chemical Society
 Myth
#
8

“Climate
Gate
proved
there’s
a
conspiracy.”


SkepNc
Argument
 Response

I
heard
about
the
ClimateGate
scandal
 • The
vast
majority
of
data
is
available
to

on
Fox
News.

Climatologists
are
 the
public
and
results
are
reproduced
by

manipula=ng
the
truth
by
hiding
crucial
 mul=ple
ins=tu=ons
and
scien=sts.
See

data.


 www.giss.nasa.gov


There
is
a
conspiracy
that
squashes
any
 • 
Analyses
are
repeated
and
conclusions

scien=sts
that
isn’t
on
board.


 verified.



• 
Two
separate
UK
Parliamentary

commiCees
have
inves=gated
Climate

Gate
and
exonerated
Dr.
Phil
Jones
of

any
scien=fic
misconduct.


 Climategate 101:
Jones e-mail of 16 Nov 1999
"I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each
series for the last 20 years (ie, from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for
Keith's to hide the decline."
 Myth
#
10


“Climate
scien=sts
are
in
it
for
the
money.”


SkepNc
Argument
 Response

These
scien=st
have
a
vested
interest
in
 • 
Scien=sts
are
paid
to
inves=gate
things

making
it
seem
like
their
research
is
 that
are
uncertain,
not
certain.





important.



• 
By
emphasizing
certainty
in
their

Global
warming
alarmists
and
are
just
 predic=ons,
scien=sts
are
undermining

doing
this
to
keep
the
grant
dollars
 their
argument
for
research
funds.


flowing.


Follow
the
Money


www.ExxonSecrets.org

 Fossil
Fuel
Funding

Since
1998,
ExxonMobil
has
put

$22,123,456
toward
climate
science
denial.




• 
Pat
Michaels
‐
Dr.
Michaels
has
acknowledged
that
20%
of
his
funding

comes
from
fossil
fuel
sources.


• 
The
Heartland
Ins=tute
‐
$830,000
from
Exxon


• 
The
CATO
Ins=tute
‐
$125,000
from
Exxon

• 
American
Enterprise
Ins=tute
‐
$1,860,000
from
Exxon

• 
George
C.
Marshall
Ins=tute

‐
$745,000
from
Exxon

• 
Heritage
Founda=on
‐
$565,000
from
Exxon



These
financial
figures
represent
Exxon
funding
from
1998
un=l
2006.




www.ExxonSecrets.org 

 For
more
informa=on…

•  Ross
Gelbspan,
author

–  Boiling
Point:
How
Poli'cians,
Big
Oil
and
Coal,
Journalists,
and
Ac'vists
Have

Fueled
the
Climate
Crisis
‐‐
and
What
We
Can
Do
to
Avert
Disaster
‐
2004




–  The
Heat
Is
On:
The
High
Stakes
BaNle
Over
Earth's
Threatened
Climate
–
1997

–  hCp://www.hea=sonline.org


•  James
Hoggan,
author

–  Climate
Cover‐Up:
The
Crusade
to
Deny
Global
Warming

–  hCp://www.desmogblog.com/jim_hoggan





•  hCp://www.sourcewatch.org

Ques=ons?

 To
View
More
Webinars…


Southern
Alliance
for
Clean
Energy


–  hCp://www.cleanenergy.org/index.php?/Webinar‐
Archive.html


–  In
the
future:

•  Sea
Level
Rise
(In
May)


•  Disinforma=on
Campaign


•  Natural
disasters

•  What
you
can
do
to
make
a
difference

 Resources

•  Florida
Energy
Systems
Consor=um
www.floridaenergy.ufl.edu


•  Union
of
Concerned
Scien=sts
www.ucsusa.org


•  NASA’s
climate
change
web
site


hCp://climate.nasa.gov/warmingworld/

•  Climate
Ethics
hCp://climateethics.org/


•  Real
Climate
www.realclimate.org/


•  Clean
Energy
Works
www.cleanenergyworks.us/



•  American
Business
For
Clean
Energy

www.AmericanBusinessForCleanEnergy.org

•  Clean
Energy
Stories
www.cleanenergystories.org/